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View Full Version : Nate Silver is my new hero


maddog42
02-14-2018, 06:50 PM
I picked up Nate Silvers 2002 book The Signal and the Noise today. Read about 40 pages. This is on page 11:

"A long-term study by Philip E. Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania found that when political scientists claimed that a political outcome had absolutely no chance of occurring it nevertheless happened about 15 percent of the time."

He also went on to say that poly-sci guys are probably still better than TV pundits. Note the date of the book, after Gore lost but before Trump.

davew
02-14-2018, 10:43 PM
Nate had Hillary at 90%

maddog42
02-15-2018, 07:04 AM
Nate had Hillary at 90%

I don't think so. He gave Trump a 29% chance about 48 hours before the election. I have stated this percentage in other posts.

maddog42
02-15-2018, 07:16 AM
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-dont-ignore-the-polls-clinton-leads-but-its-a-close-race/

maddog42
02-15-2018, 08:49 AM
Handicappers take note, chapter 8 of this book is about Bayesian probability.

_______
02-15-2018, 11:01 AM
Definitely a worthy read. If you enjoy his chapter on Bayesian probability, you should try beating 538ís pro football algo next season. I hung in for a little while before blowing up completely after some overconfidence in games where key players were injured and the team won anyway. Their algo doesnít take injuries into account at all. I overweighted their importance and lost some games I rated at 98% probability. Donít do that.

I think you hit a zero by accident. The book was published in 2012.

davew
02-15-2018, 11:48 AM
I don't think so. He gave Trump a 29% chance about 48 hours before the election. I have stated this percentage in other posts.

I was wrong - 88.1% on Oct 17

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Robert Fischer
02-15-2018, 11:51 AM
Nate Silver is quality. He actually has insight.

A percentage of the 'pundits' we see are average or below average in terms of insight, even though they are authorities at these fields.

An authoritative position and maybe a little charisma is generally sufficient to sell. Insight such as Silver's is often considered 'superfluous'.

maddog42
02-15-2018, 05:34 PM
Definitely a worthy read. If you enjoy his chapter on Bayesian probability, you should try beating 538’s pro football algo next season. I hung in for a little while before blowing up completely after some overconfidence in games where key players were injured and the team won anyway. Their algo doesn’t take injuries into account at all. I overweighted their importance and lost some games I rated at 98% probability. Don’t do that.

I think you hit a zero by accident. The book was published in 2012.

I definitely goofed on the publication date, but not on his chances of Trump winning. Thanks for the correction and the worthy insights. Is their algorithm published or just described?

maddog42
02-15-2018, 07:51 PM
Nate Silver is quality. He actually has insight.

A percentage of the 'pundits' we see are average or below average in terms of insight, even though they are authorities at these fields.

An authoritative position and maybe a little charisma is generally sufficient to sell. Insight such as Silver's is often considered 'superfluous'.

I am impressed with his predictions and his reasoning. He makes a big deal of predictive power and being brutally honest about evaluations.