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JJMartin
02-13-2018, 11:04 PM
Horse preference for post position?
Do individual horses do better in certain posts or is it just illusion?

Dave Schwartz
02-14-2018, 10:16 AM
They probably do, just like jockeys.

However, the data will be so sparse, it will be about impossible to verify it without real physical observation.

jay68802
02-14-2018, 11:34 AM
Had a horse here in Nebraska that was named Doug. The horse need two things, the lead and had to run on the rail. I think he ended up winning 6 races, 4 of those wins came from the 1 hole. There was another filly that did not need the lead, but hated having dirt sprayed in her face. All of her wins came from the 4 hole out.

cj
02-14-2018, 01:18 PM
One of Nick Mordin's books mentions this, and they are all well worth a read. If memory serves light horses, for example, tended to prefer to be drawn outside and run in the clear. Of course they aren't all alike, but watching races closely can give some clues.

That said, I think there is real value in knowing the post position tendencies for each track, surface, and distance combination. You just have to know how to measure it. :)

Ruffian1
02-14-2018, 02:55 PM
Horse preference for post position?
Do individual horses do better in certain posts or is it just illusion?


It is not an illusion. But I don't think that an exact post position is as much the key as it is the setup of the race.
Many ( not all) speed horses hate their right eye covered up by another horse. You will notice riders that are on that type will move accordingly to keep that eye clean of another horse, even if the move is premature. They know they are dead if that happens.
Others, as mentioned, do not like the spray of dirt. Those types will always try and get out of the spray to make a run.
Those are the two most common problems with being inside.
Horses that have these tendencies can make a jockey look bad to the public as they assume the rider either moved too early or lost too much ground getting out of behind the wall of dirt.
Often times, what looked like a bad ride in customers eyes was simply trying to accommodate that horses needs.
Not always of course as sometimes the customer is right and it was a poor ride. But not quite as often in these two instances and it might seem.

CJ is right about knowing post positions at certain distances at certain tracks. Key info to have IMO.
Hope that helps.

cj
02-14-2018, 03:06 PM
It is not an illusion. But I don't think that an exact post position is as much the key as it is the setup of the race.
Many ( not all) speed horses hate their right eye covered up by another horse. You will notice riders that are on that type will move accordingly to keep that eye clean of another horse, even if the move is premature. They know they are dead if that happens.
Others, as mentioned, do not like the spray of dirt. Those types will always try and get out of the spray to make a run.
Those are the two most common problems with being inside.
Horses that have these tendencies can make a jockey look bad to the public as they assume the rider either moved too early or lost too much ground getting out of behind the wall of dirt.
Often times, what looked like a bad ride in customers eyes was simply trying to accommodate that horses needs.
Not always of course as sometimes the customer is right and it was a poor ride. But not quite as often in these two instances and it might seem.

CJ is right about knowing post positions at certain distances at certain tracks. Key info to have IMO.
Hope that helps.

Interesting. I never thought about the reasoning but I've always hated when a horse I bet is battling inside and the horse outside is a little in front. I'd go so far as to say most horses don't like it based on results.

Ruffian1
02-14-2018, 03:18 PM
Interesting. I never thought about the reasoning but I've always hated when a horse I bet is battling inside and the horse outside is a little in front. I'd go so far as to say most horses don't like it based on results.

Some speeds can be OK with that but the majority of speeds need a clean right eye or they will give up prematurely.

I always found it weird that those speed types would quit down the backside or into the turn if pinned but once they turn for home, plenty of speeds, but not all, will dig in and continue to try.

cj
02-14-2018, 04:27 PM
Good to know. That is always a trip i mark down as hidden bad trip that most bettors overlook.

Si2see
02-14-2018, 05:19 PM
Some speeds can be OK with that but the majority of speeds need a clean right eye or they will give up prematurely.

I always found it weird that those speed types would quit down the backside or into the turn if pinned but once they turn for home, plenty of speeds, but not all, will dig in and continue to try.


Good information in this thread.

You know I never realized about the right eye, but one of my handicapping partners always likes it if when a speed horse begins to be collared, the rider lets them out another notch to stay clear.


Also below is something he has taught me about speed horses ( which is actually the number 1 issue with my game in the past finding and using speed horses, knowing which to play, and something he has helped me tremendously, along with my other partner Picsix )......

There are certain riders who are great at riding the final turn, and putting separation on the field entering the stretch, and there are some who will constantly let a speed horse get swallowed up. This is something you should try to learn at whatever circuits you are playing.

Jason

jahura2
02-14-2018, 07:51 PM
[QUOTE=Si2see;2276527]Good information in this thread.


"there are certain riders who are great at riding the final turn, and putting separation on the field entering the stretch,"


" Jason a great example of this currently is Saez down at Gulfstream. He has been outstanding on the recent speed favoring main track.

steveb
02-14-2018, 07:55 PM
One of Nick Mordin's books mentions this, and they are all well worth a read. If memory serves light horses, for example, tended to prefer to be drawn outside and run in the clear. Of course they aren't all alike, but watching races closely can give some clues.

That said, I think there is real value in knowing the post position tendencies for each track, surface, and distance combination. You just have to know how to measure it. :)

any clues?
personally i think who is riding it is important as far as gate goes.
some from wide just drop back regardless of likely pace, even so called good riders.
other think it out better.
but i reckon it is very hard to add to your bottom line significantly with barrier factors
it is obviously important but so hard to enumerate, for me anyway.

GMB@BP
02-14-2018, 08:03 PM
I completely believe in post position bias but individual horse position bias, thats a tough one to chart unless you just have a lot of time to keep records.

I do always scan the pp's to see how horses like to run, I believe some horses hate being inside and others are fine with it.

Si2see
02-14-2018, 08:55 PM
Jason a great example of this currently is Saez down at Gulfstream. He has been outstanding on the recent speed favoring main track.

Right he has been hot this meet on speed. I admittedly donít pay enough attention to riders. Donít get me wrong I have several that I prefer, and even more that I donít care for, but I lean more towards handicapping the animals and am more of a situational bettor than anything.

And because this thread was started about post position I will offer my two cents on Gulfstream. Maybe itís just the way I handicap races or the races I tend to play are benefitted by these situations, but I STRONGLY prefer horses that get an inside post and I think the 2 hole is probably my favorite post on any distance and any surface at Gulfstream. I have hit several horses over the past two Chanpions meets, and two horses were HUGE numbers

Clocker
02-14-2018, 09:57 PM
CJ is right about knowing post positions at certain distances at certain tracks. Key info to have IMO.


A prime example of this is that in a short sprint that starts relatively close to the turn, slow breakers in inside post positions can get shuffled to the back of the pack real fast.

tophatmert
02-15-2018, 09:18 AM
Extended sprint races where a chute is used are races that the head-on replays will help you decipher some of the PP stats. I would suggest watching how the good jocks ride in relation to where the gap in the rail is and how they move towards the rail.

Ruffian1
02-15-2018, 10:05 AM
Good information in this thread.

You know I never realized about the right eye, but one of my handicapping partners always likes it if when a speed horse begins to be collared, the rider lets them out another notch to stay clear.


Also below is something he has taught me about speed horses ( which is actually the number 1 issue with my game in the past finding and using speed horses, knowing which to play, and something he has helped me tremendously, along with my other partner Picsix )......

There are certain riders who are great at riding the final turn, and putting separation on the field entering the stretch, and there are some who will constantly let a speed horse get swallowed up. This is something you should try to learn at whatever circuits you are playing.

Jason


1. Yes. The right eye is why the jock lets them out a notch.

2. Knowing riders styles and strengths was huge as far as I was concerned. Some riders have a strength as a speed rider and some have more strength as a position or take back rider. When left with a split second decision, the riders instinct and confidence of one or the other will usually rule the decision.


If you play at a track, knowing riders, in my mind is essential. People talk about taking an edge and this is an area where it indeed is an edge to know the colony or riders and their riding styles.
You can have a better shot at predicting pace when you know which riders are more suited on the lead and which riders are more content to sit early on.

If someone struggles learning the jocks, try this. Don't bet much or at all for as long as it takes to at least get started. I say don't bet because you will watch your horse and not every rider in the race. Watch every race but do handicap for speed, pace and position.

Watch each jock for the first 10 seconds of the race. You will need to watch replays several times. Also watch speed duels to see who will back off after a bit and who will not. Compare that to the form of the horse . Also compare the form when another rider rode the horse previously.

Their hands and elbows are the key areas to look at.

Then watch from the 1/2 mile pole ( red pole just before the far turn at a mile track)to the 3/8ths pole( green and white pole about a third of the way around the far turn at a mile track). This is a telling part of the race. Almost every jock tells you who they are in those 12 seconds.

This will take about 3-4 weeks to get a starting handle on things. Less if you put more time into past replays.
As this time goes by, you can start to bet but continue to take notes on this. Within a few months you will have a solid set of notes on the entire jocks room. Constantly verify your notes to make any adjustments necessary. Do this for as many tracks as you like.

If you want to know who will do what in an early pace speed duel , this is how you do it.

There are speed riders and then there are SPEED riders. Same with patient riders. Its not all just black or white. This is especially true at the major tracks. The best riders in the U.S. usually have more diversity in their styles. But not always.
But other than a few circuits, most colonies are solidly in one group or another.

This is no knock on any riders. It is just history from what I saw everyday for a long time.
And to be fair to jocks, most trainers were the same way. Almost all of them have strengths and weaknesses. Most won't admit it, and I don't blame them, but they do.

Looking forward, how sweet would it be to see in the future for 12 seconds out of the gate before betting the race ? Well, it's not quite all that, but it's a start.

Lastly, I was taught that, the more you see, the more you see.
It seemed so hard at the time to work towards that. But it didn't take THAT long for the fog to start lifting.

Sure hope some of you try it. I don't think you will look back on it as a waste of time.

Hope this helps.

jay68802
02-15-2018, 10:37 AM
I have to say thanks, Ruffian1, enjoy reading your posts. When I started handicapping, I spent a lot of time handicapping 1 track, Delta Downs. Speed rider I loved to watch was Saenz. A rider that was very good stalking the pace is G Melancon. C J Hernandez was versatile, even when things did not go well at the beak, he was able to get a good run. All of them had 1 thing in common, when the gate opened, they were in riding position in the first 1 or 2 jumps.

Would like you to expand on one comment.

Their hands and elbows are the key areas to look at.

What are you looking at or for?

Ruffian1
02-16-2018, 06:59 AM
I have to say thanks, Ruffian1, enjoy reading your posts. When I started handicapping, I spent a lot of time handicapping 1 track, Delta Downs. Speed rider I loved to watch was Saenz. A rider that was very good stalking the pace is G Melancon. C J Hernandez was versatile, even when things did not go well at the beak, he was able to get a good run. All of them had 1 thing in common, when the gate opened, they were in riding position in the first 1 or 2 jumps.

Would like you to expand on one comment.

Their hands and elbows are the key areas to look at.

What are you looking at or for?

It is my pleasure Jay.

I have been thinking about how to best explain it and I think that the best way to actually see it is to watch a few CharlesTown replays going 4 1/2 F.

Here is what to look for.

The hands will probably be 1/3rd the way up the neck as they are leaving the chute and on to the main track. Maybe more at C.T.
Once they establish position, the urging should subside for a while unless they are getting outrun .
If they are moving back and forth going upward as they move forward, like towards 10 o'clock, that is asking but not all out asking. If they are doing the same urging but are moving downward as the rider extends their hands, like towards 8 o'clock, that is full out urging.
The elbows will probably be more tucked into the horses neck if the hands are moving up towards 10 o'clock but the elbows will be out and away from the neck if they are all out and towards 8 o'clock.
Try making a fist with each hand and having your knuckles touch with your arms extended. Your elbows will be touching your body. Now bring your hands in towards your chest with the same fist and knuckles touching and your elbows go outside your body. That is the visual difference in amount of urging you are looking for.
The style in which a certain rider will leave the gate will give you a heads up on how aggressive the rider is early on.
As you know, the hands very still and in the riders lap, at the base of the horses neck is no urging at all and trying for relaxation.
Hope I explained this well enough.

jay68802
02-16-2018, 11:28 AM
Thank you, like you said, a written explanation on this is the hard part. I know what I like when I see it, but I could not explain it. What you wrote matches what I like to see. Race 7 at Delta last night is a classic example of this. What I really like here is about a quarter way around the turn the jockey starts to extend the lead and wins the race there, instead of letting the pressure get to him.

jahura2
02-16-2018, 11:42 AM
It is my pleasure Jay.

I have been thinking about how to best explain it and I think that the best way to actually see it is to watch a few CharlesTown replays going 4 1/2 F.

Here is what to look for.

The hands will probably be 1/3rd the way up the neck as they are leaving the chute and on to the main track. Maybe more at C.T.
Once they establish position, the urging should subside for a while unless they are getting outrun .
If they are moving back and forth going upward as they move forward, like towards 10 o'clock, that is asking but not all out asking. If they are doing the same urging but are moving downward as the rider extends their hands, like towards 8 o'clock, that is full out urging.
The elbows will probably be more tucked into the horses neck if the hands are moving up towards 10 o'clock but the elbows will be out and away from the neck if they are all out and towards 8 o'clock.
Try making a fist with each hand and having your knuckles touch with your arms extended. Your elbows will be touching your body. Now bring your hands in towards your chest with the same fist and knuckles touching and your elbows go outside your body. That is the visual difference in amount of urging you are looking for.
The style in which a certain rider will leave the gate will give you a heads up on how aggressive the rider is early on.
As you know, the hands very still and in the riders lap, at the base of the horses neck is no urging at all and trying for relaxation.
Hope I explained this well enough.

Thanks for the lessons Ruffian. I have always made mental notes on jocks and tendencies but tend to generalize things and put riders under only the "good" or "bad" category and then just label them permanently. Not a good idea on my part. You have given me some tools to get better at identifying riders strengths and weaknesses
Despite straying from the original topic a bit this has been a most useful thread. I hope more people with insight will chip in.