View Full Version : Aqueduct: Sunday, February 11

02-11-2018, 10:00 AM
Race One: One Mile, NY-state-breds, MSW.

:1: THREE GOALS steps up into MSW ranks after four tries in 50k claimers. This well-named Hat Trick-bred colt juuuust missed in his last; -- he went off “the chalk” -- at this distance on a good track about one month ago. I ask: Is the step up to MSW company a reach? Also, how will the rail play in this monsoon-type weather (thank goodness it ain’t snow!)? If he leaves, can this colt get the jump on this field from the rail? “The king of Philadelphia,” Kendrick Carmouche, reprises the ride for trainer Mike – he’s having a solid “Big A” meet – Dilger.

:2: HOKULEA (I know you might be interested: A Polynesian double-hulled voyaging canoe). This Unbridled’s Song-bred finished a closing second at the distance earlier in the month (this grey colt was well-bet). The colt’s pedigree says he should handle the wet track (he raced on a “good” track in his last start). It appears he will be forwardly placed. Trainer Gary Contessa tries blinkers with this recently-claimed colt. In addition, Contessa does well with horses making their second start off a claim, albeit with a limited sampling. Chris DeCarlo reprises the ride.

:3: SPEKE has rock-solid connections in support of his second pari-mutuel start: jockey Manny Franco, trainer Todd Pletcher, and owner Barry Schwartz. This Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker)-bred (Think: American Pharoah…he loved the slop) comes out of a large-field MSW try late last month; he finished a closing 5th at 6-panels. I believe the smaller field. The wet track. The race under his belt. The added distance. And, I can add to the equation, the colt’s late running style, should combine for a trip to the Big A’s winner’s circle.

:4: DANNY CALIFORNIA is another horse that can come “off the tailgate”. I can’t quantify this, but…I love Dylan Davis when he rides on wet tracks. Many horses – but also jockeys – have preferred racing surfaces, as well as distances. All I can say is that this handicapping inclination comes from the simplest method of research: observation. This chestnut colt, on the top-side, has some serious wet-track lineage, e.g., Afleet Alex, Northern Afleet. Tom Morley trains with the aforementioned Davis, in the irons.
:5: CARMINE’S HONOR would be a surprise; yet having wagered on horses for nearly six decades…nuthin surprises me, any more. Yet, I’d be hard-pressed to make a case for this 3-year old To Honor and Serve-bred colt. In his last two, this bay colt has finished a New York city-block behind the field. Yet, in his initial start, this colt was quite competitive. Go figure! Joe Rocco, Jr. is in the saddle for trainer Gary Contessa’s other horse.

Choices: :3: - :4: - :2:

I'll be back later with my other picks.

02-11-2018, 11:13 AM
Great analysis Teach.

I'm thinking that track may be unplayable today.

Interested to see what you think of the 3rd race. My only bet at that track today would be the 6, Flores Lily, due the jock switch and it's record on wet track.

Shortening up from 7F to 6F helps too.

Hopefully the first 2 races give me an idea of how the rail vs outside is playing. I'm thinking the outside is the place to be.

If that 6 ends up 5/2 or better I'll bet it to win.

02-11-2018, 12:19 PM
Race Two:

:6: VIRADIA. This Callie’s Joy-bred filly by Distorted Humor (the mare had three winners from four starters) should take to Aqueduct’s wet surface like a “duck takes to water”. I also like the outside starting post. This Sky Mesa-bred filly is making the precipitous drop from MSWs to today’s 30k claimer. Two races back this 3-year old nearly broke her maiden , that despite hitting the gate. The filly’s trainer, Linda Rice, does particularly well with horses that were beaten favorites. One caveat: Don’t expect much in return at the windows. This filly should likely be used as part of a double, exotics, or multiple-race wager. Straight bets are likely reserved for the more “well-heeled” among us. Junior Alvarado is in the irons. Frankly, finding horses to put in behind my top choice is, at the very least – difficult. Others: :4:, :2:, :1a:

Race Three:

:5: THE CAKE IS A LIE. I believe this Sir Whimsey-bred bay filly moves up on an “off” track (a surface she’s never run on before in her, thus far, four pari-mutuel starts). This is this lightly-raced filly’s third start off a layoff (I like that angle). In addition, this 4-year old appears to like the Aqueduct oval, as evidenced by her two board-hitting efforts in her two “Big A” starts. Gary Gullo – boy is he having a solid meet! – is this filly’s conditioner. This Jump Start-bred filly has been sliding down the claiming ladder. Paco Lopez reprises the ride. Others: :6:, :1:, :2:

Race Four:

:4: GORGEOUS CHARLI. This Speightstown (Gone West)-bred gelding should relish the wet Aqueduct oval. This 6-year old’s breeding says he should glide over the “Big A” surface like a waterbug. All this Hi Beautiful-bred gelding need do is to break alertly from the gate and let his jockey, Paco Lopez, ration out his speed. I don’t expect much value, but a win is a win (multi-race wagers or exotics may be in order). The most capable conditioner, Chris Englehart, is this gelding’s trainer. Others: :3:, :1:, :2:

Race Five:

:7: OUR WHIM. Another Sir Whimsey (Jump Start)-bred should enjoy the wet going. The outside post should help (I believe if there’s a track bias, it will favor outside starting horses, especially in sprints). Steve Asmussen, the Hall of Famer, from both Gettysburg (that’s South Dakota) and “the streets of Laredo” is this mare’s conditioner. It’s “Manny Being Manny” (not Senor Ramirez), but the very capable jinete, Manny Franco. Others: :2:, :1:, :6:

Race Six:

:6: SUSAN’S FUNNYBONE. She drops out of MSWs, albeit at Finger Lakes, into the claiming ranks. This gelding’s pedigree, especially “on top,” suggests she should handle the wet going. That top-side lineage includes: D’wildcat (as Cole Porter scripted in “Anything Goes!” that’s “De-Lovely”. Charley Baker trains; Junior Alvarado is in the irons. Others: :5:, :2:, :3:

Race Seven:

:5: ANALYZE YOUR LUCK. I like this aptly-named 3-year old colt’s connections: jockey Manny Franco; trainer Todd Pletcher; and the Repole Stables. I’m of the belief that this morning-line longshot has a shot in this non-graded NY-state-bred non-graded stakes, the Rego Park. I also like this colt’s outside starting post. In this colt’s only sloppy-track start, he won. I belief a repeat of that effort, albeit at one panel less, is a possibility. I’m always looking for value. Others: :2:, :3:, :1:

Race Eight:

:2: CONQUEST TWISTER. Until recently, this bay horse has been competing against much better. I guess my only concern is that I’m not enamored with this horse’s starting post (I still believe that the outside will be the place to be). It’ll be up to Manny Franco to work out the trip. Jeremiah Englehart – he does well with both sprint and dirt starts – is this horse’s conditioner. Now, that I look back at the DRF, he also does well with horses entered in claiming races. Others: :1:, :5:, :3: