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View Full Version : Wagering without guesses, hunches or maybe's.


BELMONT 6-6-09
02-10-2018, 08:39 PM
A day at the track can be very interesting simply just listening to the reasons bettors have for wagering on a horse(s). The more you listen the more the theme never changes " I HOPE this horse can get the lead...MAYBE this trainer can change this horse. This trainer or jockey stiffed this horse last time out MAYBE today they will be trying etc.Wishing, hoping guessing simply does not cut it.

I am far from an expert in handicapping BUT it seems imperative if you are attempting to play for profit to wager only when you have a strong reason, backed by careful record keeping to make a wager and making sure the wager has VALUE. Why wager on a situation where you don't have the percentages in your favor?

Like the 'old' adage a good bet is a bet that you would make again even if it lost, because in the long run you know the bet was a good bet and when dealing with good bets you want to let the percentages play themselves out over a long period of time.

CincyHorseplayer
02-10-2018, 11:59 PM
So many horses win and lose in races that don't play out the way you imagine or they don't conform to their running style that I lost those kind of rationalizations. You are betting overall ability most times and if a horse has it they can win in many ways.

I hear you about good bets. Although I say that after many years playing in a mechanistic way that squandered much good handicapping. I have usually had good hit %, ROI, avg mutual but it was always dependent on monk like proficiency. A normal bad run could water it down quickly and it was beginning to really irritate me. After a 2015 stoppage and reset on contender and track selection that righted that ship I had a brief reset on per bet expectation and what bets to make. Each instance required seemingly simple changes to an experienced player. The revolution of simplicity! Anyway my good bets I now never regret. Even after raising my 12 year avg win mutual by 30% I am happier to report my per bet expectation return is stuck around 7.60-1. I'm not changing, second guessing, or wishing for more to happen than that. Unless I can hit jackpots!

ultracapper
02-11-2018, 01:26 AM
Even when you have it "all played out", you're still hoping it will "all play out". Unfortunately, there is always a degree of uncertainty in a horse race. That will never change.

BELMONT 6-6-09
02-11-2018, 08:12 AM
Even when you have it "all played out", you're still hoping it will "all play out". Unfortunately, there is always a degree of uncertainty in a horse race. That will never change.

I agree 100%, but at least you had some strong reasons for the wager and you were not hoping and guessing about certain factors. It is a fact that you NEVER know when any wager will win or lose with all the external factors that occur during a race. The point is to wager with a proven edge and over a series of wagers you will have a better chance for profit.

BELMONT 6-6-09
02-11-2018, 08:18 AM
So many horses win and lose in races that don't play out the way you imagine or they don't conform to their running style that I lost those kind of rationalizations. You are betting overall ability most times and if a horse has it they can win in many ways.

I hear you about good bets. Although I say that after many years playing in a mechanistic way that squandered much good handicapping. I have usually had good hit %, ROI, avg mutual but it was always dependent on monk like proficiency. A normal bad run could water it down quickly and it was beginning to really irritate me. After a 2015 stoppage and reset on contender and track selection that righted that ship I had a brief reset on per bet expectation and what bets to make. Each instance required seemingly simple changes to an experienced player. The revolution of simplicity! Anyway my good bets I now never regret. Even after raising my 12 year avg win mutual by 30% I am happier to report my per bet expectation return is stuck around 7.60-1. I'm not changing, second guessing, or wishing for more to happen than that. Unless I can hit jackpots!

Greetings Cincy, You are quite the exception simply because you keep very accurate records of all of your wagers and though monitoring you can see your strengths and weaknesses and subtract and add accordingly to your wagering plan. Outstanding! Keep up the good work

Robert Fischer
02-11-2018, 01:44 PM
A day at the track can be very interesting simply just listening to the reasons bettors have for wagering on a horse(s). The more you listen the more the theme never changes " I HOPE this horse can get the lead...MAYBE this trainer can change this horse. This trainer or jockey stiffed this horse last time out MAYBE today they will be trying etc.Wishing, hoping guessing simply does not cut it.

I am far from an expert in handicapping BUT it seems imperative if you are attempting to play for profit to wager only when you have a strong reason, backed by careful record keeping to make a wager and making sure the wager has VALUE. Why wager on a situation where you don't have the percentages in your favor?

Like the 'old' adage a good bet is a bet that you would make again even if it lost, because in the long run you know the bet was a good bet and when dealing with good bets you want to let the percentages play themselves out over a long period of time.

I agree on all counts, especially the last paragraph.

An honest decision must be made regarding your goals. Are you trying your best for a test-of-skill, or are you here for the entertainment and occasional rush?

If you are testing your skill, you have to be able to say "I don't know" the majority of the time, after you handicapped a race. Doesn't mean you are doing it wrong, or are dumb. The majority of the time, there's simply not enough to meet your criteria for value. Sometimes, things seem too in line with the expected betting. Other times, you are 'hoping' or even expecting that a horse or rider will do things differently today for whatever reason (class, distance, post position, track-bias, clear-cut logical tactics, whatever...). These 'hopes' can be traps. Easy to justify a play because the change today seems obvious. However, you have to allow for the hope. You had better be getting long-shot odds, if you are extrapolating anything.

Your last paragraph rings especially true; Process oriented > Results oriented.

fiznow
02-11-2018, 02:06 PM
I may get philosophic now but actually there is no bet without guessing. Even when it's an unbeaten horse who has won all of it's 10 races. So you guess it will win the 11th race as well. And in the end even Secretariat and Zenyatta lost a races...

jay68802
02-11-2018, 03:33 PM
The handicapping part is after all, guess work for the most part. Will the horse repeat it's last race? Is this part of the trainers plan for the horse, or is the trainer just not sure about this animal? I keep track of my wagers and the possible payout on that wager. I am always looking to see if my money is positioned correctly. I still find that I will occasionally have a wager that is bad. Or in other words, a wager that might pay 3-1 and the chance that the wager will win is 3-1. It should be a wager that might pay 6-1 and the chance that the wager will win is 3-1. Getting you money in the last situation is not guesswork, but is harder to do that it sounds.

Robert Fischer
02-11-2018, 04:26 PM
observation = I'm hoping/guessing that today he can repeat what I've already seen him do.

extrapolation or something new = I'm hoping/guessing that today he'll improve because of a change that will help him.

Sometimes the best value is in the 'new thing'.

examples:

+positive
Horse has been dueling in blazing hot 6F sprints and fading in the stretch. Today's race is at a mile, and the pace is projected to be slow...
If the horse is a good price, you believe that he's worth a shot to wire this field, even though the public's opinion is that this horse will not appreciate the stretch-out.

-negative
Horse raced in Maiden Special Weight, and then 50k last time. Speed figures fit the pars. Today he drops to 12.5k. However, you've noticed an issue with the horse, and believe there is enough adversity today that the horse will fail in spite of the steep drop. (technically; Here you are actually tossing him from your observation, while the public is betting on him from their extrapolation...)

but when you are hoping/guessing or just plain betting on how something new will 'translate', you have got to be getting a really nice price. It doesn't always pan out the way you'd expect, and it's easy to find yourself watching a different race than you had 'imagined' you'd be watching.

BELMONT 6-6-09
02-11-2018, 08:10 PM
As an example if a player waited for a top stable and or trainer with a good jockey with a horse that is proven his credentials of today's surface, class distance etc and the horse was considered value (a guess) in itself LOL but with these rough credentials it can be argued that the wager was a positive percentage advantage if the host of other pertinent handicapping factors were satisfied.