PDA

View Full Version : I'm convinced


bigeastbeast
02-09-2018, 09:11 PM
After nearly half a century at this game,I'm convinced that handicapping doesn't get it done often enough.Too many horses win today that are off 3-4 weeks or more.Of course,horses in general don't race as frequently as they did in the 70's and 80's.So there's that.

I now believe that the tote board gives you a better chance of finding "smart " money.

Tonight in the 4th at Turfway,a F&M race for non-winners of two in the past year,I noticed that the outside horse had been bet down well below its morning line and had been heavily bet in the double.

Sure enough,it started slow before circling about 5 horses on the turn and blowing past the rest in the stretch.

It's possible that this type of approach works best for sprints,claimers,and possibly females.

I'm hoping that my next 50 years will turn out better.

BTW-For harness racing,I'm beginning to believe that more winners can be found from the charts and followed from there.

Tom
02-09-2018, 09:23 PM
I know exactly where the smart money is.
In the casino.

JustRalph
02-09-2018, 10:00 PM
I know exactly where the smart money is.
In the casino.

Staying home

LemonSoupKid
02-10-2018, 02:11 PM
Knowing angles of preparation and who's "ready to run" will always enhance a handicapper's edge. Since you have to assume that at baseline a good percentage actually know what's going on when they look at PPs, the keys then become knowing particular horses in particular spots and how the connections have led them there. Handicapping isn't enough (long term) mostly because the track take is so high.

The real answer to the question, though, always ends up being what one thinks about "value". There are a lot of good handicappers that still have zero idea of how "winning" (win percentage) means little when taken in the larger picture of winning money.

Some don't care because for them it's all entertainment. Some only go to the track infrequently and thus stress hot streaks rather than getting appropriate payouts. A lot of times you can't blame them, because they aren't playing into a game daily that has anywhere from 15-25% vig.

So I return to the question of, "What is winning" or in your words, "getting it done"?

fiznow
02-10-2018, 03:51 PM
I also recognized that more horses are winning after a longer lay off now. There have been times when I tossed horses who didn't run for 3 months or more automatically. Now I don't do this anymore, I learned to be flexible and include new trends into my handicapping.

cj
02-10-2018, 04:06 PM
The less horses run the harder it is for handicappers in my opinion. A lot can happen between starts, so obviously the longer the gap is the less bettors can trust running lines.

CincyHorseplayer
02-10-2018, 05:13 PM
The only layoff horses that infuriate me are ones that seem lightly prepared, are miles apart on any of class, pace, or speed, but have a Pletcher etc etc trainer and they win handily. And it always seems to be when I have big prices in everything on the line. What's even more maddening is when I hear someone in the room say "Oh it's ......, made sense". No it F-in didn't!

Denny
02-10-2018, 05:18 PM
As a harness player, can say it's a lot of inside money.

Doesn't matter the ML, most winners take a ton of money and go off well below the expected odds

Reason I've mostly abandoned Win betting in favor of P4's.

Saw three 20/1 ML's win three consecutive races recently at one track.
All three paid under $10.
The P4 still paid reasonably well. Well above the parlay.

Run Nicholas Run
02-10-2018, 05:24 PM
Staying home

EXACTLY:headbanger:

pandy
02-10-2018, 06:01 PM
As a harness player, can say it's a lot of inside money.

Doesn't matter the ML, most winners take a ton of money and go off well below the expected odds

Reason I've mostly abandoned Win betting in favor of P4's.

Saw three 20/1 ML's win three consecutive races recently at one track.
All three paid under $10.
The P4 still paid reasonably well. Well above the parlay.

If those horses were 20-1 on the ML that was a terrible line. A lot of harness tracks have bad lines.

pandy
02-10-2018, 06:06 PM
After nearly half a century at this game,I'm convinced that handicapping doesn't get it done often enough.Too many horses win today that are off 3-4 weeks or more.Of course,horses in general don't race as frequently as they did in the 70's and 80's.So there's that.

I now believe that the tote board gives you a better chance of finding "smart " money.

Tonight in the 4th at Turfway,a F&M race for non-winners of two in the past year,I noticed that the outside horse had been bet down well below its morning line and had been heavily bet in the double.

Sure enough,it started slow before circling about 5 horses on the turn and blowing past the rest in the stretch.

It's possible that this type of approach works best for sprints,claimers,and possibly females.

I'm hoping that my next 50 years will turn out better.

BTW-For harness racing,I'm beginning to believe that more winners can be found from the charts and followed from there.

I still bet harness horses off of trip and chart analysis, but it's also not as easy as it used to be. And the reason is the speed and post bias. For instance, years ago at Roosevelt/Yonkers, if I saw a horse do something in a race that made me salivate waiting for its next start, and the horse drew post 7 and 8, I still bet the horse and I hit a lot of winners and exactas with the horse finishing first or second. Now, if I see a horse that I think is ready to win on a half mile track and the horse draws 7 or 8, I will not bet the horse.

But it goes farther than that. If you see a horse that looks ready to win, or has a hidden tough trip, like being shuffled full of pace, the next time out the horse has to be in a situation where it either has a good post, or is going to leave the gate. Position and driver strategy is much more important now in harness racing. But, you can still bet trips but you have to be selective.

pandy
02-10-2018, 06:11 PM
Some interesting observations in this thread. As noted, a lot of horses win off layoffs now. I think you can make a case that you could profit from betting horses that haven't raced in over a month, and even betting horses that haven't raced in ninety days or so. Since the horses don't race as often now, most trainers don't believe in training them into shape, they train them to be ready first time off the layoff. And often, their last start wasn't that good and the odds are generous. Whatever went wrong in the horse's last race, or last few races, is corrected and the horse is fresh and fit and much more eager to run.

One of the reasons horses come up with flat efforts, or bounce, is that they just don't feel like fully exerting themselves today. A freshening can make them much more eager to run.

green80
02-10-2018, 06:21 PM
After nearly half a century at this game,I'm convinced that handicapping doesn't get it done often enough.Too many horses win today that are off 3-4 weeks or more.Of course,horses in general don't race as frequently as they did in the 70's and 80's.So there's that.

I now believe that the tote board gives you a better chance of finding "smart " money.

Tonight in the 4th at Turfway,a F&M race for non-winners of two in the past year,I noticed that the outside horse had been bet down well below its morning line and had been heavily bet in the double.

Sure enough,it started slow before circling about 5 horses on the turn and blowing past the rest in the stretch.

It's possible that this type of approach works best for sprints,claimers,and possibly females.

I'm hoping that my next 50 years will turn out better.

BTW-For harness racing,I'm beginning to believe that more winners can be found from the charts and followed from there.

In todays game a horse that is fit can be off 30 days or more and come back to run a good race. In fact a 30 day layoff may give time for sore muscles to get better. With even the lighest of training I don't look at a 30-45 day break from racing as a negative.

There is as much dumb money as smart money on the tote at some tracks.
Some owner that thinks his little chance horse is going to win can have an impact on the odds at the smaller tracks. You have to know your tracks and their crowd and still it is hard to separate the smart money.

pandy
02-10-2018, 06:29 PM
Here are the days off since last race for the 9 winners at Aqueduct today, Saturday, Feb. 10. The average, 44 days off between races, so a little over 6 weeks, seems about right for an A track.

20
50
26
50
65
21
28
42
49

Robert Fischer
02-10-2018, 06:35 PM
Mr. Market is here to serve you, not to guide you.
It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren't certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don't belong in the game. As they say in poker, “If you've been in the game 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.”


I think that the above is generally true in racing.

UOB (unexplained odds behavior)
However, I believe that you should have an understanding of what odds to expect. If you understand the race, you should know how and why the tote board market will behave.
When the odds behave differently from what you expected, - this is telling you in real-time, that YOU were wrong in your understanding.

You should almost always pass the race when you realize that you are wrong.

Once in a while, you will notice a horse that is hot or cold enough on the board to justify a wager that treats 'Mr. Market' as rational entity.

AltonKelsey
02-10-2018, 06:42 PM
As a harness player, can say it's a lot of inside money.

Doesn't matter the ML, most winners take a ton of money and go off well below the expected odds

Reason I've mostly abandoned Win betting in favor of P4's.

Saw three 20/1 ML's win three consecutive races recently at one track.
All three paid under $10.
The P4 still paid reasonably well. Well above the parlay.

I'm sure it did, but what's the chances of you actually hitting it, without benefit of knowing the betting patterns?

Denny
02-10-2018, 07:34 PM
Pandy,

It was The Meadows. Worst line ever that day.
One paid 6 or 7 dollars, one paid 9, the other just over $10, maybe 11.
Slightly over what I first said.

I remember one was driven by Palone. Another was rated #1 by Track Master.
The races were part of USTrotting's daily free P4 PP's.

Tom
02-10-2018, 08:27 PM
Staying home

I handicapped 67 races today and bet.....2.

Got a $9 winner and a $9 place horse.

Guess what I am NOT doing tomorrow.:rolleyes:

JustRalph
02-10-2018, 08:44 PM
I handicapped 67 races today and bet.....2.

Got a $9 winner and a $9 place horse.

Guess what I am NOT doing tomorrow.:rolleyes:

Does not surprise me a bit.

The only time I play now is if I take a vacation and the wife wants to play around in the casino

CincyHorseplayer
02-11-2018, 01:13 AM
It's winter. That is preposterous! I bet 1 of 3 dirt races I look at and 2 of 3 turf races I look at! My hit rate has been a little subpar at 26% vs career % but cash rate at 42% keeps me off of suicide watch. I see plenty of good bets out there!