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View Full Version : #3 is 10-1 ML and #4 is 2-1 ML


gabe
02-07-2018, 06:26 PM
SANTA ANITA THURSDAY Race 4. #3 and #4 came out of same race.
#3 was 5 wide, while #4 had lead with no trouble. #3 lost by a length to the #4 albeit the wide trip.

#3 is 10-1 ML
#4 is 2-1 ML
https://scontent-sjc3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/27752375_10155967080245821_8510441290028724125_n.j pg?oh=bce690b8c6aca17d54444fc139dcb97d&oe=5B19B6E2

gabe
02-07-2018, 06:40 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHkrRUTSFr0

RunForTheRoses
02-07-2018, 07:10 PM
I think it is because of the Beyer are higher on the 4, the trainer is much more prolific, and the last race odds. 4 being a lighter raced horse may or may not factor at that cheap level.

Maybe post links to whobet bris as I don't think this drf is allowed.

AltonKelsey
02-07-2018, 08:21 PM
Kind of a classic case of the line being made off the body of work and not just the last race.

Not only does it make sense, but the public actually bets this way most of the time.

Now you might get a case where if the wise guys think that wide trip meant something, they might pound it much closer in odds to the 4, but its no certainty that happens.

dlivery
02-07-2018, 09:18 PM
Race Conditions:

6 Furlongs.

Clm 16000n3L Purse $20,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES.
Weight, 123 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000

P P's

(1) (0) no line

(2) (0) no line

(3) (0) no line

(4) (+) Use last line *

(5) (0) Off 4 months no line

(6) (0) no line

(7) (0) wrong distance using 2nd line back it is a + race *

(8) (0) no line

I would pass the race if I'm not getting 4-1

Just to eliminate some of the noise

Lawrence:lol:

GMB@BP
02-07-2018, 09:19 PM
Hey, cant knock anyone for looking at value, and as you point out there is not too much separating their last race.

Just in terms of handicapping it though I see a few issues for the 3

The 4 is faster than the 3 horse early, shown with the 109 pace figure and the 3 pretty much needs the lead. The 4 also comes from a much more competent barn. Now its a morning line so they may be a tad closer.

Now if these are the only two speeds and somehow the 4 doesnt break then its game on, and if you are getting 5x value maybe that is worth it. I just dont like taking chances on breaks and stuff.

What looks like a much more probably scenario is that 3 and 4 may do each other in, and maybe there is another value horse who is there to capitalize. I dont have the PP for the race and am not playing or would make more of a full analysis.

Greg

betovernetcapper
02-08-2018, 12:05 AM
If your just looking at the horse's last race, you could make the case that they were similar & the odds made no sense. If you were to look at their entire career, it's a different story. In each of their 2nd races they were entered for $20,000. The #3 finished 6th beaten 11 lengths & the #4 finished 2nd by a length & a 1/2. The #3 has raced in this same type of company 13 times with 2 wins, 3 places & one show, being off the board 7 times. The #4 has raced 5 times with 2 wins & 2 seconds, with it's lone off the board finish 4th by a length & a 1/2.
The #3 seems to have little to no ability to rate and it's chances of getting a clear lead with the #4 & #6 in the race are kind of remote. If you throw into that mix a weak pedigree & a cold trainer, the ML odds seem more rational.
This is not to say that the #4 is the likely winner. Bob Baffert's horse from the one hole is ratable as is #2. In the event of a early speed meltdown, either could take it at the end.

ultracapper
02-08-2018, 04:27 PM
Kind of a classic case of the line being made off the body of work and not just the last race.

Not only does it make sense, but the public actually bets this way most of the time.

Now you might get a case where if the wise guys think that wide trip meant something, they might pound it much closer in odds to the 4, but its no certainty that happens.

This, except it's the 4 that's going to get pounded even further. Everything points to Even Money at post time. Way underlayed, but that's the way the betting usually goes.

#6 is the play. Came out of the same race, but broke awful. If she breaks and they let her run, she may run away from these slugs.

Robert Fischer
02-08-2018, 05:32 PM
SANTA ANITA THURSDAY Race 4. #3 and #4 came out of same race.
#3 was 5 wide, while #4 had lead with no trouble. #3 lost by a length to the #4 albeit the wide trip.

#3 is 10-1 ML
#4 is 2-1 ML


3 ran just as well as the 4 (neither distinguished themselves).

4,3, and everyone else in this horse are 'default' type of horses. None of them are likely to run a 'winning' race. This race appears to have a good chance of horse winning by default (close race, had a good trip, nothing impressive or decisive...).

4 has a little bit more quality than the 3 (a touch quicker to the lead, a touch stronger through the lane), and in addition to the 'default' chance that the 3 has of inheriting a chance to win, the 4 has a possibility of finding herself on the lead turning for home.

I don't see any value in this race on any horse. There are no favorites that I hate, and there are no standouts that I like. Not my kind of betting race.
No 'plays' and costly to include several.

If I had to throw $10 at this race;
$5 win :1:
$2 ex :4: w/ :1:
$0.50 tri :4:/ALL/:1: ($3)

Robert Fischer
02-08-2018, 05:42 PM
You can really see the ownership syndicate in the doubles pools right now in the early going.

23MTP and the Drawing Away Stables horse:4: is doubled heavily to the 4POMPPARTY ($16) while the 1Baffert is ($143).

The other horses are different the :3: actually shows our :1:Baffert ($26) slightly favored over our :4:POMPPARTY ($27)

(only $2,700 early going doubles pool)

I would interpret this as an ownership group and not any kind of crazy odds movement based on inside info.

Robert Fischer
02-08-2018, 06:04 PM
Post time race 3, and the :3: is potentially a slight overlay win/place/show due to the ownership group betting.


You can really see the ownership syndicate in the doubles pools right now in the early going.

23MTP and the Drawing Away Stables horse:4: is doubled heavily to the 4POMPPARTY ($16) while the 1Baffert is ($143).

The other horses are different the :3: actually shows our :1:Baffert ($26) slightly favored over our :4:POMPPARTY ($27)

(only $2,700 early going doubles pool)

I would interpret this as an ownership group and not any kind of crazy odds movement based on inside info.

tophatmert
02-08-2018, 06:34 PM
:7: with :2::8::7:w/p

Robert Fischer
02-08-2018, 06:42 PM
:7: with :2::8::7:w/p

Great call on the 7 :ThmbUp:

GMB@BP
02-08-2018, 08:21 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHkrRUTSFr0

Hope you had something on the horse for second! nice pick

davew
02-08-2018, 09:11 PM
I thought you were saying the ML was bad, but after seeing your youtube video, you are showing VALUE. Good job.

AltonKelsey
02-08-2018, 09:25 PM
Well, it was a little of both. He actually was making the case that vs the 4, the 3 was a much better bet.

Since no other handicapping was discussed, it wasn't exactly a pick, BUT , I'll give credit for pointing out the overlay.

There are lots of these every day.

gabe
02-09-2018, 12:22 AM
:7: with :2::8::7:w/p

Great call sir

Robert Fischer
02-09-2018, 09:43 PM
Great call sir

your '3 vs 4' turned out great! :ThmbUp:

race looked 'random' to me. I felt someone would win by 'default'. I feel like if I play races like that, and I don't have a love or hate for specific horses, the favorite wins often enough that the costly coverage adds up.

But, that was good enough of a legitimate point by you in the original post, and a big payout result that I have to question myself.