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PaceAdvantage
02-07-2018, 05:35 AM
Donate and become a VIP! (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/misc.php?do=donate)

PaceAdvantage.com is now accepting member donations via PayPal. We will never require that a member donate, but thought it might be a good way for members to let us know they appreciate the man-hours and resources involved in keeping a website of this size running smoothly while expanding into the future.

Donations are tracked on a monthly basis and VIP status will expire after a period of one month. For example, if you donate on March 4th, your VIP status will be valid through April 5th and expire sometime on April 6th.

Current VIPs will enjoy the following benefits:

-A snazzy VIP badge next to their user name!
-Exclusive handicapping contests with cash prizes (paid via PayPal) - only for VIPs!
-A free monthly 10 card subscription (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2287927#post2287927) ($30 value) to STATS Race Lens!
-Access to the VIP-only subforum!
-Access to exclusive VIP-only Amazon.com Promo Codes - save money on selected products!
-Access to my proven Value Races & Horses selections!

Please allow 24-48 hours for your VIP-access to be granted after donation, although we'll strive to process it ASAP.

THANK YOU!

Anonymous donations: If you are not logged into the message board when you donate, your donation will be anonymous and you will not receive VIP status, but your generosity will be appreciated just the same!

Immortal6
02-07-2018, 09:56 AM
I like this idea, very similar to Reddit gold. Would we be able to gift VIP status to other members? Is there a set dollar amount required to hit VIP status? Thanks for the site and all you do for it PA :ThmbUp:

PaceAdvantage
02-07-2018, 09:58 AM
No gifting I'm afraid. But the minimum donation is only $2, just like it used to be at the track...and that will be good enough to get you VIP.

Thanks!

Tom
02-07-2018, 09:59 AM
You mean I'm not VIP already?? :eek:

Good idea, Mike - 'bout time you got a hand for all you for us.

Your check is in the mail!
No, really, it is!
Trust me! :D

Tape Reader
02-07-2018, 10:19 AM
Can it be a check in the mail rather than Paypal?

PaceAdvantage
02-07-2018, 10:31 AM
Sorry TR, going to keep it as simple and as automated as possible by using only PayPal for the time being.

Although if it's a big enough check, I might make an exception...;)

PaceAdvantage
02-07-2018, 12:31 PM
BIG SHOUT OUT TO

RED KNAVE

for his AWESOMENESS...although everyone who attended those 'Toga parties of years past already know how awesome he is...

Speaking of 'Toga parties....we really need to have another one.

Tom
02-07-2018, 12:52 PM
Awesome is an understatement - I remember him going out early one morning and bringing home a KEG of coffee for breakfast!!!!

PaceAdvantage
02-07-2018, 02:57 PM
ANOTHER BIG SHOUT OUT TO

TAPE READER

Obviously, the current market downturn hasn't hit him very hard, given his gigantic show of support...thank you my man!

PaceAdvantage
02-07-2018, 09:40 PM
Just a word about the whole donate setup here...I see a number of you may have had something go awry when trying to donate, or were just testing the waters a bit on the PaceAdvantage side of things, which is perfectly fine.

But, unless you're actually logged into PayPal and finalize the payment, no donation goes through, even if you get a private message on here thanking you for your donation. That gets sent out the moment you decide on an amount and click the SUBMIT button here on PaceAdvantage...but the actual transaction isn't finalized until you complete the next step on PayPal...

So those of you who thought you actually donated and haven't received VIP status yet, check your PayPal accounts to make sure you actually made a payment.

There are about 11 of you out there who went through step 1 on this website, but never completed things on PayPal, and thus no donation was made.

I'm all caught up with things on my end, so if you thought you made a payment but haven't heard anything about VIP yet, please check your PayPal account. Odds are it never went through for whatever reason...if that's the case, just start over again at this link http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/misc.php?do=donate

Thanks, and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience...

PaceAdvantage
02-07-2018, 11:10 PM
A heartfelt thanks to everyone who made it possible to meet and beat our first monthly goal in a matter of HOURS...you guys and gals are, and have always been the best.

I think our first VIP handicapping contest will be during the holiday weekend...not sure whether it will be Saturday, Sunday or Monday yet...I want to have at least one contest a month, and maybe more.

I also want to play in these contests, but won't be eligible for any prize money...but if you win and you beat me in the process (which is bound to happen almost every time), you'll get a "Beat The Host" bonus...

Red Knave
02-08-2018, 08:44 AM
Speaking of 'Toga parties....we really need to have another one.
Speaking of awesome, that would be it.

lamboguy
02-08-2018, 09:03 AM
Speaking of awesome, that would be it.-i'd go this year too!

johnhannibalsmith
02-08-2018, 05:09 PM
Glad to see you finally do this. Now I just have to mail Tom some cash here in a bit so he can PayPal it to you for me. :D

PaceAdvantage
02-08-2018, 05:13 PM
I love you JHS! Always have...even when you make fun of me on OT...:headbanger:

Vinnie
02-08-2018, 06:26 PM
PA:

Sir, what if we don't particularly care to use Paypal, but, would like to donate just the same. Can we send in a money order or something along those lines where the proceeds would be credited directly to you and your "one and only #1" in my estimation Pace Advantage Board. :)

Please let me know if something along these lines are in any way possible?

JustRalph
02-08-2018, 07:04 PM
A guy named Vinnie wants no record of his “donation”

This board is officially New York ish all the way......

castaway01
02-08-2018, 07:10 PM
A guy named Vinnie wants no record of his “donation”

This board is officially New York ish all the way......

Ralph, leave the gun and take the cannoli.

Tape Reader
02-08-2018, 07:13 PM
A guy named Vinnie wants no record of his “donation”

This board is officially New York ish all the way......

Pisser! See my post #5. New York ish and Brooklyn to boot.

JustRalph
02-08-2018, 07:29 PM
Pisser! See my post #5. New York ish and Brooklyn to boot.

Hey, you and Vinnie get together and send PA a truck full of TV’s and we call it even ?

Tape Reader
02-08-2018, 07:40 PM
Hey, you and Vinnie get together and send PA a truck full of TV’s and we call it even ?

That reminds me.

When I was a “runner” we used to give our “clients” Christmas gifts that “fell off a truck.”

You don’t see OTB giving out gifts.

PaceAdvantage
02-08-2018, 08:13 PM
I'm going to add my Value Races & Horses selections to the VIP Forum as another perk, not that any of you seasoned VIP veterans need my help. :pound:

Vinnie
02-08-2018, 10:18 PM
A guy named Vinnie wants no record of his “donation”

This board is officially New York ish all the way......

Come on JR, you know me and you've known me for a long time. Nothing ominous or odious about my request at all. It is totally straight forward. A M.O. is something easily tracked. To suggest otherwise is nothing short of silliness.

PaceAdvantage
02-08-2018, 10:23 PM
He was joking, at least that's how I took it...anyhoo...as I said to Tape Reader who I believe had the same question:

Sorry TR, going to keep it as simple and as automated as possible by using only PayPal for the time being.

Although if it's a big enough check, I might make an exception...;)

Vinnie
02-08-2018, 10:31 PM
I am sorry Mike (PA) and JustRalph. I am certain that you are right and JR most certainly meant what he said to be in jest. :) I think the world of JR and of course your wonderful PA board. Once again, "my bad".

PaceAdvantage
02-19-2018, 12:45 PM
BIG SHOUT OUT TO

sjk

for his BIG TIME show of support for PaceAdvantage.com

Thank you, thank you, thank you sir!

PaceAdvantage
02-24-2018, 04:52 PM
Abandoned the value line (GULP) today...here's how it's gone so far...all picks were posted live and well before the race in the VIP section:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/022418_VRH_X.PNG

JJMartin
02-24-2018, 05:42 PM
Abandoned the value line (GULP) today...here's how it's gone so far...all picks were posted live and well before the race in the VIP section:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/022418_VRH_X.PNG

Whose picks are those?

PaceAdvantage
02-24-2018, 05:45 PM
Mine...add a $12.40 winner (plus 2 losers, one of them DQ'd from 1st) onto that list btw...

JJMartin
02-24-2018, 05:48 PM
Mine...add a $12.40 winner (plus 2 losers, one of them DQ'd from 1st) onto that list btw...

Is that 43% strike rate consistent?

PaceAdvantage
02-24-2018, 05:50 PM
Is that 43% strike rate consistent?We'll see...;)

Probably more like 40% though...

PaceAdvantage
02-24-2018, 06:56 PM
Updated scorecard...have lost 5 in a row...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/022418_VRH_Y.PNG

thaskalos
02-24-2018, 06:58 PM
I have no idea what a Pay Pal account is...will you accept my donation in the form of a certified check? Those picks of yours look too good to pass up. :ThmbUp:

PaceAdvantage
02-24-2018, 09:29 PM
I have no idea what a Pay Pal account is...will you accept my donation in the form of a certified check? Those picks of yours look too good to pass up. :ThmbUp:They were more than too good...

Here is the current record with 5 more races yet to go:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/022418_VRH_X.PNG

thaskalos
02-24-2018, 10:15 PM
Are these your TOP selections? They can't be "value" plays...because I see some odds-on winners there.

PaceAdvantage
02-24-2018, 10:22 PM
Are these your TOP selections? They can't be "value" plays...because I see some odds-on winners there.I threw away the value line today...just top picks

PaceAdvantage
02-24-2018, 10:50 PM
Here are the final results for today:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/022418_XXX_.PNG

cj
02-24-2018, 11:49 PM
Are these your TOP selections? They can't be "value" plays...because I see some odds-on winners there.

PA didn't use a line, but do you think odds-on winners can't be value?

PaceAdvantage
02-24-2018, 11:52 PM
PA didn't use a line, but do you think odds-on winners can't be value?The probably weren't, at least today...I haven't looked back to see how I would have done had I passed races below a certain odds point. But I suspect, based on the number of odds-on horses that LOST for me today, that it would have been a net loser...

PaceAdvantage
02-25-2018, 12:58 AM
It will be interesting to see how long this holds up...since I have only semi-automated the process of handicapping via TimeformUS figs, I can't test a huge number of races. But my limited testing plus today's live run gives me a lot of encouragement. Today's live run pretty much matched exactly my prior tests in terms of performance...

thaskalos
02-25-2018, 01:02 AM
PA didn't use a line, but do you think odds-on winners can't be value?

That's not what I meant. I had never seen him bet odds-on horses before...that's all.

cj
02-25-2018, 01:44 AM
That's not what I meant. I had never seen him bet odds-on horses before...that's all.

I assumed as much, thanks. I do think overlaid odds on horses are rare.

PaceAdvantage
02-25-2018, 04:12 PM
Today I'm getting CRUSHED so far...almost every chalk I've bet has lost...and the few non chalks have also lost...

1 for 12 on the day (lone winner paid $5) :eek:

PaceAdvantage
02-25-2018, 09:49 PM
After the 9 race losing streak, at least things leveled out...tons of chalk...tons of losing chalk...want to forget about this day

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/022518_RECAP.PNG

mikesal57
02-26-2018, 08:11 AM
PA...

Is it possible to ADD something else other than monthly?

Like a 6 month option and/or 1 year?

I'm sure others too would like this than keep doing this each month...

Mike

PaceAdvantage
02-26-2018, 10:05 AM
Since I just started doing this, going to keep things as they are for now. It's possible to add some longer term stuff, and I'll definitely consider it...but not right now.

Thanks.

PaceAdvantage
02-26-2018, 03:09 PM
With one pick left (a 2/5 M/L shot no less), here is how today turned out...hardly any plays, but a profit nonetheless:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/PUB_022618.PNG

PaceAdvantage
02-26-2018, 07:02 PM
Last pick won...these chalks are getting way out of hand...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/0226_RECAP.PNG

PaceAdvantage
02-27-2018, 05:53 PM
Here's how today panned out...small profit...but a profit nonetheless

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/022718_RECAP.PNG

Become a VIP! (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/misc.php?do=donate)

cj
02-27-2018, 09:06 PM
Here's how today panned out...small profit...but a profit nonetheless

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/022718_RECAP.PNG

Become a VIP! (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/misc.php?do=donate)

Rebate players kill for days like this. :popcorn:

PaceAdvantage
03-02-2018, 04:02 PM
Been wondering how I've been doing lately? Having another great day so far...here's my current record with picks posted in the VIP section (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/misc.php?do=donate).

Have hit 6 of 11 on top so far today.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/030218_RECAP.PNG

PaceAdvantage
03-02-2018, 04:51 PM
Hit two out of the next three while we were gone...so I have now hit 8 out of 14 top pick winners today...damn...I'm good

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/030218_RECAP2.PNG

Go VIP (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/misc.php?do=donate)

PaceAdvantage
03-02-2018, 09:23 PM
Here are the results of today and my current totals. Petered out a bit at the end, but all in all, a pretty solid day. :ThmbUp:

Hit 13 of 28 top choice winners. Not too shabby...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/030218_RECAP.PNG

Become A VIP today! (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/misc.php?do=donate)

mikesal57
03-02-2018, 09:46 PM
Whats your software of choice here?

Mike

kingfin66
03-02-2018, 10:35 PM
I think PA has said that he uses TimeForm numbers. I also think that he uses the pace projector and then does some weighting using a Monte Carlo simulation. He may not do this any more, but I believe that is what he has done in the past.

PA, you definitely have got it GOING ON. Handicapping and playing like a BOSS.

PaceAdvantage
03-02-2018, 10:36 PM
I exclusively use TimeformUS pace & speed figures...and use Excel to generate an odds line using the figures.

So I guess Excel is my software of choice?

I use a web scraping tool to generate a .csv file of the figures I need from the Timeform website for each race, so the process of inputting the figs is semi-automated...but not quite. But I can handicap a race in under a minute using my method.

I don't do trips. I don't look at jockeys, trainers or owners.

Pure figs. And my 158 race sample doesn't even consider overlays. It's just the performance of the top pick bet in each and every race.

The new 9/5 or higher sample is based on betting each pick at 9/5 or higher at 0mtp. As you can see, some of the winners got cut down drastically from 0mtp until the race went off, as is the plague of betting on horses these days.

But yet, I have overcome this handicap...to date...which shows you that you can WIN and WIN NICELY despite late odds drops, while using NOTHING BUT PACE AND SPEED FIGURES.

And they say it can't be done.

mikesal57
03-02-2018, 10:57 PM
Nice going PA...

using your years of experiences and putting down to use in Excel is a rewarding experience....

:ThmbUp:

Mike

Franco Santiago
03-02-2018, 11:29 PM
Well done, sir. Congrats.

Zaf
03-02-2018, 11:51 PM
Outstanding !!!

PaceAdvantage
03-02-2018, 11:53 PM
Outstanding !!!Good stuff Zaf! Love the graphical accompaniment! :pound:

VIP...anything goes! (within reason) :jump:

Zaf
03-02-2018, 11:59 PM
Good stuff Zaf! Love the graphical accompaniment! :pound:

VIP...anything goes! (within reason) :jump:

Oh good I was worried the moderators might jump on me for that one :)

Great job really :cool: Thats just great capping !

Z

Zaf
03-03-2018, 12:04 AM
This was my backup plan :pound:

Zaf
03-03-2018, 12:05 AM
anyway i will keep it clean from here on. :)

Z

PaceAdvantage
03-03-2018, 12:08 AM
Oh wait, I thought we were posting in the actual VIP forum...this is out in the open...:lol:

Yeah, keep it clean from now on...at least out here...:eek::pound:

Zaf
03-03-2018, 12:33 AM
Me too thought this was VIP only, LOL no problem bro :headbanger:

Z

PaceAdvantage
03-03-2018, 09:15 PM
Full disclosure: The Racing Gods Have Spoken

Today was about as bad as yesterday was good. My ROI is now where it was two days ago, so it's like yesterday never happened.

Still six races left tonight, so it could get even worse:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/030318_RECAP.PNG

Zaf
03-03-2018, 09:27 PM
Too hard on yourself, you are predicting mass quantities of races and blowing away the takeout :headbanger: The coneheads would be proud, mass quantities :pound:

Z

Red Knave
03-04-2018, 02:20 PM
The coneheads would be proud, mass quantities :pound:

Z
You have stimulated me! :headbanger:

PaceAdvantage
03-04-2018, 10:24 PM
After today's action, the roses aren't quite as sweet smelling anymore:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/034218_RECAP.PNG

PaceAdvantage
03-04-2018, 10:25 PM
To put a positive spin on this, in the last year, I have now posted over 750 documented picks on this board that have shown a net profit...

JustRalph
03-04-2018, 11:22 PM
To put a positive spin on this, in the last year, I have now posted over 750 documented picks on this board that have shown a net profit...

Nice!

Derby time is right around the corner......that’ll humble ya :lol:

Zaf
03-04-2018, 11:25 PM
To put a positive spin on this, in the last year, I have now posted over 750 documented picks on this board that have shown a net profit...

You are doing great :headbanger: Better than any public handicapper I know :ThmbUp:

Z

cj
03-05-2018, 12:10 AM
To put a positive spin on this, in the last year, I have now posted over 750 documented picks on this board that have shown a net profit...

Yeah, you can't live day to day in this game or it will drive you nuts. Easier said than done of course but very important.

MONEY
03-05-2018, 01:30 AM
To put a positive spin on this, in the last year, I have now posted over 750 documented picks on this board that have shown a net profit...
Good job, I wish that I could say the same.

I keep my stats by field size, and I have found that I do best in 7 & 8 horse fields.
So I just bet races with 7, 8 and sometimes 9 horses.

I took a quick look at your double digit winners in this thread.

You had,
4 in 6 horse fields,
3 in 7 horse fields,
2 in 9 horse fields,
1 in 8 horses and 1 in an 11 horse field.

Unless I missed something, none of your big winners came in fields with coupled entries.

Your lowest ML odds double digit winner was 5/2, and you had 3 ML 12/1 winners.

It also looks to me like you are being clobbered by fields with 10 horses and more.

Good Luck

PaceAdvantage
03-05-2018, 01:38 AM
Good job, I wish that I could say the same.

I keep my stats by field size, and I have found that I do best in 7 & 8 horse fields.
So I just bet races with 7, 8 and sometimes 9 horses.

I took a quick look at your double digit winners in this thread.

You had,
4 in 6 horse fields,
3 in 7 horse fields,
2 in 9 horse fields,
1 in 8 horses and 1 in an 11 horse field.

Unless I missed something, none of your big winners came in fields with coupled entries.

Your lowest ML odds double digit winner was 5/2, and you had 3 ML 12/1 winners.

It also looks to me like you are being clobbered by fields with 10 horses and more.

Good LuckSince I tend to be on speed horses, this isn't a surprising analysis. Speed horses tend to do better in smaller size fields, or so I've been told...it makes sense anyway. Something to consider. Thanks.

PaceAdvantage
03-09-2018, 01:27 PM
Thanks to our friends at Equibase, we are happy to announce that VIP status perks will now include a free monthly 10 card subscription ($30 value) to STATS Race Lens.*

Donations (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/misc.php?do=donate) made to support the site on or after March 9, 2018 will receive access to the code for the free STATS Race Lens subscription, which will be posted in the VIP forum.

Once you receive your code, you can navigate to http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbProductPage.cfm?pid=50610&SAP=TN&REDIRECT_SUB=Y, click on any one of the VIEW SUBSCRIPTIONS buttons (doesn't matter which one), tick the "STATS Race Lens - Monthly Subscription (10 cards) ($30.00)" box, ADD TO CART and apply the code at checkout.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/Equibase_VIP.jpg

* One free monthly 10 card subscription per person. VIPs who renew their VIP status after taking advantage of this offer are not eligible.

PaceAdvantage
03-13-2018, 05:53 PM
Would just like to say....ever since I had that day where I picked 13 of 28 winners on top (this was almost two weeks ago), I have since posted the absolutely worst set of picks I have ever seen someone post on here or anywhere. else

I mean, I really, really, really have SUCKED.

So let that be a lesson to you all.

NEVER

EVER

PISS off the racing GODS by bragging about how good you think you are.

Even if you have a day where you pick 13 winners out of 28 races.

Zaf
03-13-2018, 09:45 PM
All good man :headbanger: Keep picking :jump: You know how this game goes sometimes.:ThmbUp:

Z

PaceAdvantage
04-09-2018, 07:03 PM
This doesn't fix the constant losing I've been doing for the past month and a half, but it helps a bit:

6:11 PM Will Rogers Race 10 :6: 7/2
6:11 PM Will Rogers Race 10 :7: 4/1
6:11 PM Will Rogers Race 10 :2: 4/1This was pretty cool.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/images/VRH/BAM.png