View Full Version : Future Pool 2

02-06-2018, 08:50 PM
ANyone eyeing up any horses? Im looking at Montauk (based on hype alone, like really what the hell Pletcher, is this horse ever gonna race?) and Instilled Regard... I already hold pretty good tickets off shore from September on Bolt d'Oro, Solomini, and McKinzie... among others.

Big fan of the futures bets.

02-09-2018, 07:58 PM
Montauk will not make the Derby. Has throat issues and will be taken out of training. Future wagers on Montauk are now suspended.:pout:

02-09-2018, 08:09 PM
Montauk will not make the Derby. Has throat issues and will be taken out of training. Future wagers on Montauk are now suspended.:pout:

Wow!!!! Thank you for the update Bennie.

02-10-2018, 09:45 AM
Wow!!!! Thank you for the update Bennie.

Bolt d'Oro, Good Magic, Instilled Regard, Principe Guilherme, Field - BOX

02-10-2018, 10:12 AM
Here are a few on my radar, as well as current odds as of Saturday morning...

I am open to suggestions.

(Hell, most years I couldn't pick the Derby winner if you stopped the race at the top of the stretch , let alone 3 months out :D )

1 Audible 11 - 1

10 Good Magic 8 - 1

11 Instilled Regard 21 - 1

13 McKinzie 12 - 1

17 Principe Guilherme 37 - 1

19 Solomini 20 - 1

24 All Other Three Year Olds 2 - 1

02-10-2018, 11:54 AM
Good Magic - It's hard not to like a Raise A Native on top to go with Buckpasser-x. Chad Brown is due. Time will tell if he fizzles like Classic Empire.

Solomini - Another Raise A Native and trained by Baffert. Got screwed by the stewards or would have an even better record.

McKinzie - See Solomini. It will be interesting see see which one comes out looking better in the end.

All Others - Absolutely nothing has impressed me this year. Perhaps I'm blind or just getting picky. Always Dreaming came from nowhere last year and I have a feeling it's gonna happen again.

I boxed All Others individually with the three names.

02-10-2018, 05:49 PM
just got home and after filing my Montauk tickets from pool #1 in the round file next to my desk I put away my ticket from pool #2 in my night stand with the pool#1 sire exacta ticket. I also have Bolt d'Oro on an exacta ticket from pool #1 but if he doesn't get his butt in gear I can file that next to Montauk. This pool I took a shot with some current 2nd level horses that I think at least have a shot to make the post. I took an exacta box with the field over Catholic Boy, Free Drop Billy and Solomini. Hoping Catholic Boy moves forward again today, thought Free Drop ran a good race off the layoff and can move forward again and Solomini just seems to show up every race. Hopefully these 3 can stay on the road and make it to Kentucky in May.

02-11-2018, 04:17 PM
Tough year for Pool 2 wagering. We have not seen the top two from last year. The Sam Davis did nothing to clear the air., nor did I expect it to do so. The Risen Star is next weekend but those horses tend to have limited impact in the Derby including only one winner. Gun Runner did eventually develop into an elite horse however.

Derby Winners by Prep (https://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/Prep%20Races,%20Derby%20Winners%20(2014).pdf) This is out of date by a couple years.

I'll look more forward to Pool 3 when we will know the results of Fountain of Youth and San Felipe. This is the pool a person can make some bank given more insight and confidence to bet against the favorites.

The Fountain of Youth on March 3rd is what I consider the first big "impact race" of the year. Thirteen Derby winners ran in that one and it is the springboard to the high impact Florida Derby where 24 winners came out of. Further, the Derby winner out of the FL Derby tends to win the Fl Derby: Always Dreaming, Nyquist, Orb, Big Brown, Barbaro, Monarchos, Thunder Gulch, Unbridled.

The San Felipe a week later has led to 11 Derby winners. Aside from California Chrome, the winner of this race has not win the Derby since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. Giacomo was up for place.

Pool 4 is my favorite, albeit the payoffs tend to drop appreciably from Pool 3. Here is where you pretty much have everything but the Ark Derby to play from. The Ark Derby has had some, albeit much less, impact than Florida or Santa Anita Derby races. If a Lil E Tee or Gridstone comes out of it than I can always pound that horse Derby day.

All that said, I made a $15 Exacta box Good Magic/All Others. It would pay about 38-1 as of this post. He's pretty much locked a gate position. He could come in 5th behind four horses not listed and I still collect. People who took all others over Classic Empire in one of the pools last year collected in spite of his 4th place finish. I'm not sold on Bolt winning the thing but I suspect he will easily earn a gate. As such, I made a straight $6 All Others/Bolt ticket. That pays 42-1. It's likely there will be 10 or more horses from the All Others bucket which provides very efficient insurance come Derby day. I banked $1200 on my $13 Always Dreaming over All Others exacta from Pool 4 last year... and I'm not so sure I otherwise would have made that bet Derby day.

02-11-2018, 04:32 PM
the horse that i want to bet, TENFOLD, is only 5/2 because he is part of the field. with the next pool i highly doubt that he will be 20-1.

02-11-2018, 04:42 PM
the horse that i want to bet, TENFOLD, is only 5/2 because he is part of the field. with the next pool i highly doubt that he will be 20-1.

He's got that Apollo curse going against him but I do like the Raise A Native on top and a dose of Buckpasser on the bottom. Where's Asmussen gonna send him? The Rebel comes after Pool 3. If that horse does make Pool 3 I suspect you will get 35-1 barring a smashing victory between now and then.

Also, 5/2 odds is not bad for a bet that's gonna cover perhaps 10 starters in the gate. If you don't like that value then consider taking the All/whatever button which will pay at worst 42-1 with Bolt.