Beyers help

[cryptic1]

A horse that I have a small interest in, broke its maiden today
at Woodbine. I would like to find out its approximate Beyer. It
was a 7 furlong race on the turf run in 123.42(2). Someone's
help would be greatly appreciated.
For those who wager on two year olds, look at Running Stag progency first time on the turf. Two weekends in a row there have been big prices at Woodbine with this scenario.

Thanks
cryptic1

[Speed Figure]

I would give him a 68.

[Fastracehorse]

I saw the race.

He beat some horses capable of mid-80 Beyers.

Very impressive - did you notice a firster won in Rc 9 as well ( grass )??

fffastt

[Brian Flewwelling]

I get him winning with a 92, against a class par of 92

those are my own numbers, but correspond closely to the BRIS numbers when near 90

i don't know, but expect that would be about 85 in Beyers


Brian

[sjk]

I don't bet turf races so I don't have much cause to evaluate my turf figures. Even so, I am shocked at how different an number I got. I gave the race a 43. That puts the older maiden fillies in the 9th at a 68 which seems about right.

Hope that I'm wrong and the other guys are right.

[Fastracehorse]

There is no way that horse ran a 43.

Not trying to be a know-it-all but your figure is about half-way there - you must be kidding. No??

fffastt

[sjk]

Kidding, no. Does the number seem low, yes.

I made the variant from the two other turf races which featured maiden older fillies and NW1X older fillies. Both of those races went 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:14 and change. Off those races I made the track 32 points fast.

Not looking to get into a long debate about a variant that was made off of limited data. As I said I, I don't bet turf races anyway and can think of some reasons why my turf numbers might be less correct than my dirt numbers.

However, if someone is offering cryptic1 a lot of money for his horse he should be aware than from one point of view the race was not fast.

[cryptic1]

Thanks for the help guys. I was hoping it was in the 80's
as he has progressed after each race. The jock said he's still
somewhat green and has some learning to do. Back at the
barn he looked like he was out for a walk and today he's
perfectly fit. The short term plan, all being well, is a turf race
on Sept. 19/04.
I've been told that another running stag will make its first
turf start in a nwl on friday. He really worked well when I saw
his workout a few weeks ago. For those who follow woodbine,
the horse is trained by the same trainer that sent out our
horse.

cryptic1

[Fastracehorse]

You mean Daniel Vella.

We had a contest on here last year: I won it with a $60 Vella turf horse.

Woodbine is my baby - very few here care when I post it however.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

cryptic1 should NOT, I kid you not, NOT be aware of your #.

Beyers work on limited variant info too.

fffastt

[sjk]

Fast,

Thanks for your kind words. I make a lot of money at Woodbine
(1000+ Woodbine races bet over the years).

See you at the windows.

[Fastracehorse]

I was j/k - I think you need to multiply your turf figs by 2 and then take the cube root :)

Woodbine is a great venue - and we get it for 7 months!

I often post my picks for Wdb in the selections thread - but the guys luv NY you know :)

fffastt

[sjk]

fast,

Don't use the turf figures anyway. Best of luck to you.

[The Hawk]

He got a 66 Beyer...

[Fastracehorse]

Your figs are low toooooooooooo!

fffastt

[The Hawk]

It's not MY fig. It's Beyer's.

[Speed Figure]

Originally posted by Brian Flewwelling
I get him winning with a 92, against a class par of 92

those are my own numbers, but correspond closely to the BRIS numbers when near 90

i don't know, but expect that would be about 85 in Beyers


Brian How could you give a 2 year old that runs 7 furlongs in 123.2/5 on turf a 92 speed figure. Is that a quirin number? I gave him a 68, his beyer was 66. I can't see how anyone would think he ran anything better than a 70.

[Brian Flewwelling]

Speed Figure

You are right, that is an astonishing number.

It exposes two problems: 1) something weird happened with my DTV calculations... gave 0 when -7 was more likely, and 2) I am in the process of converting my Spd Fig system and this seems to be a casualty of the process ... no i am not prepared to explain how the two systems were able to interact :(

just forcing a recalc of the DTV gives a fig of 84 and that against a par that is too high by 10 points ... guessing that could bring it down to about 80-82

But i am interested in comparing your 'system' and Beyer's to mine.

The typical 10K claimer at good tracks gets awarded a 90 speed fig, based on Dave Schwartz' Par times in my new system... the older system worked from the times that BRIS seemed to use for a speed of 90. (very similar numbers when i had sufficient BRIS data.)

I use a Beaten Len adjustment that varies with distance, like Beyer and BRIS, but actually between the two.

Par for that class will likely fall in the mid 80s rather than 92 which is more appropriate for older MSW runners at WO.

What is the Beyer for the 'typical 10K claimer'? and what do you get for these horses?

Brian

[NoDayJob]

Originally posted by cryptic1
A horse that I have a small interest in, broke its maiden today
at Woodbine. I would like to find out its approximate Beyer. It was a 7 furlong race on the turf run in 123.42(2).

Thanks
cryptic1



I do my own numbers and come up with a 69. It appears that somewhere in the mid to high 60's is about right.

NDJ

[46zilzal]

A Beyer is like reading the last chapter of a book without looking a the chapters ahead of it. FAR too simplistic

[Fastracehorse]

Is that possible??

Because I know the favorite was capable of mid-80 Beyers and he lost by a nose - and the 2nd chalk ( by an excellent first-out trainer and excellent blood stock ) was 3rd.

The Hawk says a 66 - that is very weak for that group.

fffastt

[plainolebill]

DRF has a new 'feature' for those who have ants in their pants along with $3, Beyer's on demand.

[Fastracehorse]

So Hawk spent $3 to find that info out for us??

How generous.

fffastt

[The Hawk]

I'm some helluva guy....

[Rexdale You]

Congradulations Cryptic,,,

You are probably aware that the 3 year best time @ Wo.

on the turf 6 1/2 = 1.14 4/5

7F = 120 2/5

Maybe this will assist the discussion ,,,

Will be watching for the next Stag to run

Thanks,,,,Rex You