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View Full Version : Ritvo brings back parlays at Santa Anita but they're a little different than before.


Andy Asaro
02-02-2018, 10:59 AM
https://twitter.com/Quigleys_Corner/status/959163288842981376


You weren't able to bet this type of parlay when they last had them in 2007. Hope they put a round robin function as well and offer them on XpressBet.

Andy Asaro
02-02-2018, 11:18 AM
6 bets for $5 ??

GMB@BP
02-02-2018, 11:52 AM
Interesting, so you can mix and match different kinds of wagers, I dont remember that option at all before...can you skip sequences say a horse in the 1st and a horse in the 8th?

camourous
02-02-2018, 12:13 PM
https://twitter.com/Quigleys_Corner/status/959163288842981376


You weren't able to bet this type of parlay when they last had them in 2007. Hope they put a round robin function as well and offer them on XpressBet.


So does this mean you have $5 to show on the 1st horse, if he comes in and pays $2.10, you then have $5.25, does it split the $5.25 3 ways to bet the next horse to WPS? say that one runs 3rd at 2.10, you would have $1.83. Would you then have $.91 to show on both horses in the last leg?

Andy Asaro
02-02-2018, 01:10 PM
So does this mean you have $5 to show on the 1st horse, if he comes in and pays $2.10, you then have $5.25, does it split the $5.25 3 ways to bet the next horse to WPS? say that one runs 3rd at 2.10, you would have $1.83. Would you then have $.91 to show on both horses in the last leg?

I'm thinking yes.

Andy Asaro
02-02-2018, 01:11 PM
Interesting, so you can mix and match different kinds of wagers, I dont remember that option at all before...can you skip sequences say a horse in the 1st and a horse in the 8th?

You should be able to do that.

Cholly
02-02-2018, 01:15 PM
So does this mean you have $5 to show on the 1st horse, if he comes in and pays $2.10, you then have $5.25, does it split the $5.25 3 ways to bet the next horse to WPS? say that one runs 3rd at 2.10, you would have $1.83. Would you then have $.91 to show on both horses in the last leg?

Everybody who plays gets a trophy!

Denny
02-02-2018, 02:17 PM
GREAT.

You get hammered with takeout and breakage on each bet.

Or not?

AltonKelsey
02-02-2018, 02:35 PM
GREAT.

You get hammered with takeout and breakage on each bet.

Or not?


Uh, if this bet excites anyone , they're not too bright.

Poindexter
02-02-2018, 02:54 PM
GREAT.

You get hammered with takeout and breakage on each bet.

Or not?

A press release explaining might be nice, so everybody is clear. As of now the only thing I am seeing on google is a tiny blurp from drf and this thread. I assume that this is the fractional betting Ritvo mentioned when he first took over Santa Anita. I am also assuming that the takeout is the same on a .91 cent show bet as it is on a $2.00 show bet. So if a horse pays $2.80 to show, the payoff would be $2.80*(.91/2.00) or $1.274 or $1.27, maybe you lose that extra 4 tenths of a penny, maybe not.

Assuming this is what is happening, it is sort of a nice feature for the small player who is priced out of the pick 4's and pick 5's. Also let's small players/novices focus on the horses they really like rather than dealing with maiden races with 10 first times starters etc. As mentined above by Andy, the round robin feature is a mustl Even if they don't offer the round robin feature, you can eaily do it your self.

eg 4 horse round robin need to hit 2 of 4

parlay 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 2-3, 2-4, 3-4. 6 parlays total. If you hit 2 legs you hit 1 of 6 parlays, if you hit 3 legs you hit 3 of 6 parlays and if you nail all 4 legs of course you win all 6 parlays.

You can do this anyway you want 2 of 4, 2 of 5, 3 of 5, 3 of 6........Its a fun way of betting, but a lot of work to implement. With parlays it is a piece of cake.

Perhaps I am not to bright, but I like it. If it is proplerly promoted and explained it should drive up handle. Of course if I am wrong about my assumption above, I might have a different viewpoint.

jimmac
02-02-2018, 03:10 PM
in GB you have been able to do this for years.
Accumalator = 4 horses
using horses in different races and and different race track
Eg:
GP - race 2 - #1
Aqu - race 8 - # 2
Tampa - race 6 - # 5
FG - race 9 - #12

Bets would look like this
6 - Doubles - 1&2/1&5/1&12// 2&5/2&12// 5&12
4 - trebles - 1-2-5// 1-2-12// 1-5-12//2-5-12
1 accumalator - 1-2-5-12

cost 11 units

cj
02-02-2018, 03:39 PM
GREAT.

You get hammered with takeout and breakage on each bet.

Or not?

Yeah, it is not really a good bet at all if it is using the straight pool takeouts, and really how else could it be done? The only advantage is that you get to pick the race to parlay. But from a takeout perspective, it is dreadful. Lets look at a simple P3 in SoCal. Win takeout is 15.43, P3 takeout is 23.68. Lets assume each winner had 20% of a 50,000 pool bet on it in each leg. These are the mythical payoffs:

Pick 3: $190.80
Parlay: $148.00

That is quite a premium to pay for picking you own races.

No thanks.

olddaddy
02-02-2018, 03:54 PM
Maybe Im missing something but why cant you just parlay on your own.

Poindexter
02-02-2018, 04:09 PM
Yeah, it is not really a good bet at all if it is using the straight pool takeouts, and really how else could it be done? The only advantage is that you get to pick the race to parlay. But from a takeout perspective, it is dreadful. Lets look at a simple P3 in SoCal. Win takeout is 15.43, P3 takeout is 23.68. Lets assume each winner had 20% of a 50,000 pool bet on it in each leg. These are the mythical payoffs:

Pick 3: $190.80
Parlay: $148.00

That is quite a premium to pay for picking you own races.

No thanks.

You can use that same logic to never make a win bet again. But if you can find 3 horses on a card that you are fairly certain will offer good value I think you will do better keying them together in a parlay/round robin than you will keying them separately with other horses in pick 3's.

Also I assume that rebates will be given on the accumulated bets, so if you hit a nice 4 horse accumalator (as they in GB), you are going to have nice accumulation of rebates on top of your really hefty accumulation of profits.

cj
02-02-2018, 04:11 PM
Maybe Im missing something but why cant you just parlay on your own.

Well you can but you can't do the odd amounts and such, but you'd also have the option to cash out if you wanted at any time.

Si2see
02-02-2018, 04:13 PM
Maybe Im missing something but why cant you just parlay on your own.

Unless it is some sort of reduced pool, I am with you

Denny
02-02-2018, 04:13 PM
cj,

Agree.

The only way I can see this being a good bet is if a couple of things are done to make it attractive to the player.

1) Offer the bet at a reduced takeout rate - to be determined.
2) Eliminate breakage on each leg of the wager - break to the penny.

Otherwise it's a ripoff bet. You might as well just make your own parlay. At least you would know the odds as each leg came up.

(Why do think professional bookies LOVED offering parlays and round-robins?)

cj
02-02-2018, 04:16 PM
You can use that same logic to never make a win bet again. But if you can find 3 horses on a card that you are fairly certain will offer good value I think you will do better keying them together in a parlay/round robin than you will keying them separately with other horses in pick 3's.

Also I assume that rebates will be given on the accumulated bets, so if you hit a nice 4 horse accumalator (as they in GB), you are going to have nice accumulation of rebates on top of your really hefty accumulation of profits.

My point was to show that linking races is much better to the player in the established pools with one takeout then it is doing a parlay and having multiple takeouts and breakage points applied. I don't see how that is the same logic as saying don't make win bets.

Everything in this game is skewed by rebates, but I can tell you are aren't getting much rebate at all on straight pools in SoCal.

olddaddy
02-02-2018, 04:17 PM
Well you can but you can't do the odd amounts and such, but you'd also have the option to cash out if you wanted at any time.

Yea you round up or down , which wont affect the payoff much and like you said you want to cash out or cut back or tac on anytime you want to. Im thinking the only time this bet would be worthwhile if two races are going off at same time.

Poindexter
02-02-2018, 04:17 PM
Maybe Im missing something but why cant you just parlay on your own.

You can, but cannot do it with fractional betting(which as I said, I assume is what they are doing with this). So if I bet a $5 9 horse show parlay on my own, I get back $2.20 on the first horse or $5.50 for my ticket, do I bet the next horse for $5 or $6.

Also in general, if I lay down a $5 wps parlay on 4 horses with the track it gets done, if I don't I personally will never complete it. It is just not that high of a priority for me. So people like me will automatically bet more because the option is there.

Cholly
02-02-2018, 04:51 PM
I don't want any part of this wacky parlay, but I DO want some of whatever it was they were smoking when they thought up this crazy bet.

GMB@BP
02-02-2018, 05:44 PM
cj,

Agree.

The only way I can see this being a good bet is if a couple of things are done to make it attractive to the player.

1) Offer the bet at a reduced takeout rate - to be determined.
2) Eliminate breakage on each leg of the wager - break to the penny.

Otherwise it's a ripoff bet. You might as well just make your own parlay. At least you would know the odds as each leg came up.

(Why do think professional bookies LOVED offering parlays and round-robins?)

in the new book Betting with an Edge there is a good story about a bookie getting cooked by a really good player doing show parlays.

cj
02-02-2018, 06:00 PM
in the new book Betting with an Edge there is a good story about a bookie getting cooked by a really good player doing show parlays.

Right, but that was because his bets weren't going in the pools.

AltonKelsey
02-02-2018, 06:59 PM
The notion that betting more (or at all) on horse B because horse A has won, offers no statistical edge.

two payoffs

$10
$10


You bet $2 on the first winner, 10 on the second. Now you have $50


so you now bet 25 times as much on the third horse without regard to any other factor, just that it was third in the sequence.

Better you than me.

Andy Asaro
02-02-2018, 08:14 PM
Never heard this kind of logic before.

Do you bet to win on the lowest WPS take of any major jurisdiction? Do you do it more than three times per day? Do you do it in non consecutive races?

Then the parlay is a great option.

elhelmete
02-02-2018, 08:32 PM
Well you can but you can't do the odd amounts and such, but you'd also have the option to cash out if you wanted at any time.

yeah this.

I like to do a show parlay when I bring newbies to the track. They understand it, and it's fun. But we'd probably continue to do it "manually" so we could dump out anytime and I'm not too worried about the odd cents we'd not be able to bet.

Bennie
02-02-2018, 08:51 PM
I used to make bets like this with a book years ago when I worked in a factory. We played what they called if bets. If the first horse won the monies went on the second horse. We did the same with football bets. Use 4 or 5 teams in a parlay. $6 got you back $20 for each winning pair of teams.You have 10 parlays running so you need for 3 teams to cover to break even. I do my own parlays/round robins at the track from time to time when I only like a few races on the day and they are at different tracks.

Afleet
02-02-2018, 11:23 PM
6 bets for $5 ??

common core math

fiznow
02-02-2018, 11:59 PM
Don't know about this one but generally win parlays are a good bet. Youre not forced to play special races in a row like in the DD, Pick3,4,5,6 and so on including crappy maiden clms for example and can select your races. Plus you still can get value on even money favorites. Here in Europe you can play them in horse races with fixed odds. But should work with pool odds as well. Sure you can play selfmade parlays but its kinda complicated, especially when you play more than one horse in a race.

mountainman
02-03-2018, 12:16 AM
Well you can but you can't do the odd amounts and such, but you'd also have the option to cash out if you wanted at any time.

That's why I will never understand sharp players characterizing a pick 4 , for instance, as an opportunity to wager on four races, yet incur just one takeout bite. Apples and oranges.

cj
02-03-2018, 01:37 AM
Never heard this kind of logic before.

Do you bet to win on the lowest WPS take of any major jurisdiction? Do you do it more than three times per day? Do you do it in non consecutive races?

Then the parlay is a great option.

I personally think it is bad for the vast majority of horseplayers. They'll just lose more money and do it faster.

AltonKelsey
02-03-2018, 02:08 AM
PS In case anyone is confused, a manual parlay is edgeless, whereas a p-something suffers only one takeout , and will on average pay much more than a parlay.

In addition, when you're talking p5 or p6, and longshots, a manual parlay would be crushing the payoff by the time you got to the final leg(s). No such problem in the pick bet.

Poindexter
02-03-2018, 01:54 PM
Now I want to look at a day where a seaoned player has 4 key bets. 2 in the early pick 4 and 2 in the late pick 4. Instead of parlaying and playing a round robin with his key bets he chooses to do a single, single, all, all on both pick 4's. So let's assumed our seasoned player is about break even on key bets(which is reasonable-some are +5% others -5 to 10%).
So he elects to play the first pick 4 where his exprected return is
1.0 after the first key bet
1.0 after the 2nd key bet
.80 after the 1st all race
.64 after the 2nd all race

So after the 4 all races his return is .64.. Add about 50% to that because of one takeout instead of 4 takeouts and we are back to 96% of even.

Now let's say the player just parlays and round robins his 4 key bets. Since they are all about break even long term (because our seasoned player has evolved to the point that he breaks about even on prime bets). His return on each and every parlay is about 100%(break even).


So if you look at the 2 independently there is not a huge advantage to one over to the other. In a perfect world we would be able to have a pick 4 in races 1-2-8-9. But we certainly do not live in that perfect world today. Also I would venture a guess that very few players out there are (myself included) disciplined enough to focus their multi pick wagers to "key bet singles etc" or even positive expectation singles. For most of us it is I need a single to make this play, looks like this is the best one.

I believe parlay/round robin betting can be a a tool for all horseplayers to focus their betting on their strongest plays and possibly improve their long term roi. The parlay/round robin feature gives them the chance of a score, without having to rely so much on luck (8 deep in the last leg of the pick 4 and hoping the 8/5 favorite doesn't waltz home or worse yet only being live to the 8/5 favorite and watching your 2nd choice win).

Parlays just compound expectation. Have 2 horse with a 50% chance of winning and paying 3/2. Expected return on each is 25%. Parlay the 2 and you have a 25% chance of hitting but your return on a $2 parlay is $12.50, so your expected return is 25%*12.50 or $3.125 on a $2 bet or a 56.25% expectation. Of course the bad news is that you have to bet less since you went from a 50% winning expectation to a 25% winning expectation. You are also increasing your losing streaks significantly which can work against some players.

By the same token compounding expectation of parlays can work against the player who may think he has positive expectation but in reality he doesn't (eg the 2 horse he rates as having a 50% chance of winning only have a 35% chance of winning).

You have no argument from me that pick 4 and pick 5 betting is the best bet in this game, but even with 50 cent minimums they do not cater to the
undercapitalized or inexperienced bettor. Especially when you are dealing with really competitive racing.

Parlays/round robins is a good way to get inexperienced or even some very experienced bettors to focus on their stronger plays and likely fills enough of their action quota so they aren't making as many questionable plays. CJ sees negative, I see positive(for horseplayers in general not myself (seems like I alwasy have to clarify that). Since the ability to parlay is already there, you may as well make it convenient for those who would like to use this feature. For the rest of you what is the difference if they offer it or not.

Andy Asaro
02-03-2018, 02:16 PM
Great post P

cj
02-03-2018, 02:21 PM
None of that changes the fact you are paying over 40% takeout in the example I gave on the parlay. If bettors want to bet against that, go for it, but there is nothing wrong with shedding a little light on the reality of the bet. It isn't all party balloons and confetti.

Andy Asaro
02-03-2018, 02:22 PM
None of that changes the fact you are paying over 40% takeout in the example I gave on the parlay. If bettors want to bet against that, go for it, but there is nothing wrong with shedding a little light on the reality of the bet. It isn't all party balloons and confetti.

It's two win bets not an exotic wager. If you ever bet to win on two or three horses per day it's the same thing.

I've been pushing to bring them back since they got rid of them in 2007. What I consider the best bet I ever made (not the most money won) was a two horse WP parlay.

Andy Asaro
02-03-2018, 02:39 PM
Charts attached for parlay I spoke about in previous post. The were both first time geldings.

Denny
02-03-2018, 02:58 PM
What are the details on how takeout and breakage are applied?

cj
02-03-2018, 03:05 PM
It's two win bets not an exotic wager. If you ever bet to win on two or three horses per day it's the same thing.

I've been pushing to bring them back since they got rid of them in 2007. What I consider the best bet I ever made (not the most money won) was a two horse WP parlay.

It isn't two or thee win bets because in a parlay if you get one wrong you get nothing.

Poindexter
02-03-2018, 03:25 PM
None of that changes the fact you are paying over 40% takeout in the example I gave on the parlay. If bettors want to bet against that, go for it, but there is nothing wrong with shedding a little light on the reality of the bet. It isn't all party balloons and confetti.


Cj, I am going to jump out on a limb and assume you a winning player. That means to me that over time, when CJ has a prime bet, it will have a positive expectation. So the takeout this is a non issue, because you have the skill set to overcome the take. I am also going to guess that your prime bets come to the tune of one or 2 per track per day at most. So you rarely have the option of coupling them in a double or covering 2/3rds of a pick 3 with them.

I am going to go out on another limb and say that on the rest of the races (races you have no feel for or you see no value in) you are going to have an roi of over -10% maybe closer to -20%. You are good, but if the public has it right, there isn't much you can do to overcome the track takeout.

So you gave an example of a pick 3. Pick 3 takeout is 23.68%. The WPS takeout is 15.47%. So based off of your theory the pick 3 is superior because of the one takeout vs a takeout in each race. So if you parlayed $2.00 on negative 15.3% horse your expected return on a parlay is $120.96 for $2.00 while the return on a pick 3 $176.32(a 45% premium for connecting them in the pick 3) if you singled all 3 in a pick 3. That is all correct, but you can't look at it that way. However, you know over time that your prime bets are going to be at worst break even. Let's assume that by narrowing down the other 2 legs of the pick 3 you can get those 2 legs to -15% each (you are better than the crowd but if there is no value or you have a poor handle on the races your expertise will only get you so far). So you key one of your prime bets with spreads in 2 random races and your return will be 1*.85*.85*1.42 or 1.047 or about a 5% premium with he pick 3 over the breakeven prime bet parlay. Each player has to analyze his situation and see what would work better for him/her. So yes you do a little better with the pick 3 if you can reduce the track take some in the latter 2 legs but it is not a huge difference. That is the point I am trying to convey. Also I have not studied pick 3 payouts, but I would be highy shocked if pick 3 payouts with obvious horses offerred anywhere close to a 45% premium on a 3 horse parlay. I believe all the multi pick wager payouts are skewed much lower on the obvious. Just the way people play, singles, 2x3x4, 3x3x3 or 4x4x4 cold decking........

So in theory I get what you are saying, "why parlay 3 horses when there is a pick 3 that offers one takeout and 45% premium because of that" but in the reality of racing that decision is not nearly as obvious as you believe it is.

cj
02-03-2018, 03:35 PM
Cj, I am going to jump out on a limb and assume you a winning player. That means to me that over time, when CJ has a prime bet, it will have a positive expectation. So the takeout this is a non issue, because you have the skill set to overcome the take. I am also going to guess that your prime bets come to the tune of one or 2 per track per day at most. So you rarely have the option of coupling them in a double or covering 2/3rds of a pick 3 with them.

I am going to go out on another limb and say that on the rest of the races (races you have no feel for or you see no value in) you are going to have an roi of over -10% maybe closer to -20%. You are good, but if the public has it right, there isn't much you can do to overcome the track takeout.

So you gave an example of a pick 3. Pick 3 takeout is 23.68%. The WPS takeout is 15.47%. So based off of your theory the pick 3 is superior because of the one takeout vs a takeout in each race. So if you parlayed $2.00 on negative 15.3% horse your expected return on a parlay is $120.96 for $2.00 while the return on a pick 3 $176.32(a 45% premium for connecting them in the pick 3) if you singled all 3 in a pick 3. That is all correct, but you can't look at it that way. However, you know over time that your prime bets are going to be at worst break even. Let's assume that by narrowing down the other 2 legs of the pick 3 you can get those 2 legs to -15% each (you are better than the crowd but if there is no value or you have a poor handle on the races your expertise will only get you so far). So you key one of your prime bets with spreads in 2 random races and your return will be 1*.85*.85*1.42 or 1.047 or about a 5% premium with he pick 3 over the breakeven prime bet parlay. Each player has to analyze his situation and see what would work better for him/her. So yes you do a little better with the pick 3 if you can reduce the track take some in the latter 2 legs but it is not a huge difference. That is the point I am trying to convey. Also I have not studied pick 3 payouts, but I would be highy shocked if pick 3 payouts with obvious horses offerred anywhere close to a 45% premium on a 3 horse parlay. I believe all the multi pick wager payouts are skewed much lower on the obvious. Just the way people play, singles, 2x3x4, 3x3x3 or 4x4x4 cold decking........

So in theory I get what you are saying, "why parlay 3 horses when there is a pick 3 that offers one takeout and 45% premium because of that" but in the reality of racing that decision is not nearly as obvious as you believe it is.

I'm mostly a one race at a time guy. I play too many big prices to try to string them together. If I go 1 for 3, I want to get paid.

I do understand the appeal of a parlay. I though I mentioned that early on. I just also understand if that you are really cutting into your edge when you start linking bets together and letting the previous outcome ride. For example, lets say I love a 15-1 that wins and pays $32. To my mind, I'd be crazy to bet that all on the next 15-1 shot I love 5 races later.

AstrosFan
02-03-2018, 03:38 PM
Parlays/round robins is a good way to get inexperienced or even some very experienced bettors to focus on their stronger plays and likely fills enough of their action quota so they aren't making as many questionable plays. CJ sees negative, I see positive(for horseplayers in general not myself (seems like I alwasy have to clarify that). Since the ability to parlay is already there, you may as well make it convenient for those who would like to use this feature. For the rest of you what is the difference if they offer it or not.

Excellent post Poindexter:headbanger:

At least SA is trying something, to get people to the windows and actually invest in the game.

If "someone" doesn't like the wager, then do not play it. Kudos to ANY track trying to create new fans.

So tired of hearing "takeout" regarding horse racing. If it's that bad, then stop playing, hop in the car and go play a slot machine! You'll be back at the track in no time.

cj
02-03-2018, 03:47 PM
Excellent post Poindexter:headbanger:

At least SA is trying something, to get people to the windows and actually invest in the game.

If "someone" doesn't like the wager, then do not play it. Kudos to ANY track trying to create new fans.

So tired of hearing "takeout" regarding horse racing. If it's that bad, then stop playing, hop in the car and go play a slot machine! You'll be back at the track in no time.

The problem is tracks do all kinds of new bets that are worse and worse for bettors while failing to address the problem of the price of betting being too high. Putting lipstick on a pig still leaves you with a pig.

Tom
02-03-2018, 05:09 PM
Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
Parlays/round robins is a good way to get inexperienced or even some very experienced bettors to focus on their stronger plays and likely fills enough of their action quota so they aren't making as many questionable plays.

OK, suppose a newbie bets a parlay and hit the first 2 legs, then loses.
Then he plays another and hits the first 2 legs and then loses.
He goes home 4 for 6 and has a pocket full of bumpkiss.


Think he'll come back?

Poindexter
02-03-2018, 05:58 PM
OK, suppose a newbie bets a parlay and hit the first 2 legs, then loses.
Then he plays another and hits the first 2 legs and then loses.
He goes home 4 for 6 and has a pocket full of bumpkiss.


Think he'll come back?

Not a good example, in a 6 horse round robin he will parlay
123, 124, 125, 126, 134, 135, 136, 145, 146, 156,234,235,236,245,246,256,345,346,356,456

I am acutally not a fan of the extra parlays as was pointed out that are done in GB until you are more seasoned in this game. With 20 $5 parlays, our newbie will hit 4 of them. Assuming all 6 horses are 2-1, each parlay pays $135, so for his $100 he gets back $540. I think our newbie will bring all his friends next time. :)

or he can do a series of 2 horse parlay 1-2, 1-3.....5-6 which is a total of 15 parlays at $5 each, outlay $75 hit 6(1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 2-3, 2-4, 3-4) of them for $45 each and make $195(270 back less the $75 investment).


The advantage of doing the 15 2 horse parlays is that if you win only 2 you invest $75 and get back $45(lose $30 on a $75 play) where as on the first play if you don't hit 3 winners you lose $100, so that is obviously a lot riskier.


All this information should be provided for patron in the program and on the web site etc, so people can play it intelligently and geared toward what appeals to them.

Tom
02-03-2018, 06:08 PM
That is too much work. :eek:

I'll bet show and keep parlaying until I get a large beer. ;)

Poindexter
02-03-2018, 06:31 PM
That is too much work. :eek:

I'll bet show and keep parlaying until I get a large beer. ;)

Exactly, that is why if they do this right and incorporate round robins, they will add to the handle. We wont have to fill out 15 or 20 tickets we just mark round robin, 3 horse parlays in 6 races, mark the horses we like, the bets we want(wps...) and done. I wouldn't think twice on a day I like 3 or 4 horses of putting them in a little round robin. It is a fun action play.

Andy Asaro
02-03-2018, 07:00 PM
Exactly, that is why if they do this right and incorporate round robins, they will add to the handle. We wont have to fill out 15 or 20 tickets we just mark round robin, 3 horse parlays in 6 races, mark the horses we like, the bets we want(wps...) and done. I wouldn't think twice on a day I like 3 or 4 horses of putting them in a little round robin. It is a fun action play.

Right. Gotta have a round robin option. But, what do you make of the picture of the bet to lead the thread. It says six wagers so it is a round robin right? It was not this way the last time they had them.

Poindexter
02-03-2018, 07:44 PM
Right. Gotta have a round robin option. But, what do you make of the picture of the bet to lead the thread. It says six wagers so it is a round robin right? It was not this way the last time they had them.

This is the same interpretation as the one given by Camourous at the start of the the thread. So nothing new here.


The ticket reads as follows

$5 parlay
sh r1 #3
wps r2 #1
sh r3 #3&5

6 bets total $5

So it is clearly a parlay. Now you can't parlay horses in the same race with each other(their bet size could not be determined until after the race and the pools is closed). So the only way to interpret the ticket is that $5 goes on the 3 to show in race 1. Whatever you get back is split 3 ways into win place and show bets on #1 in race 2 and whatever you get back from that is split in 2 and bet on the 3 & 5 in race 3. That is also 6 bets (just like a round robin woud be but a round robin would require the impossible-parlaying 2 horses in one race) and the only way this ticket can make any sense.

Andy Asaro
02-03-2018, 07:59 PM
This is the same interpretation as the one given by Camourous at the start of the the thread. So nothing new here.


The ticket reads as follows

$5 parlay
sh r1 #3
wps r2 #1
sh r3 #3&5

6 bets total $5

So it is clearly a parlay. Now you can't parlay horses in the same race with each other(their bet size could not be determined until after the race and the pools is closed). So the only way to interpret the ticket is that $5 goes on the 3 to show in race 1. Whatever you get back is split 3 ways into win place and show bets on #1 in race 2 and whatever you get back from that is split in 2 and bet on the 3 & 5 in race 3. That is also 6 bets (just like a round robin woud be but a round robin would require the impossible-parlaying 2 horses in one race) and the only way this ticket can make any sense.

That's the way I see it too. That's a new thing. Last time they had them it was impossible to bet this way.

betovernetcapper
02-03-2018, 08:30 PM
I see a couple of problems with this. For starters, in all but your 1st bet, your betting into blind pools. There are a lot of horses I'd bet at 3-1 but would pass on at 3-5.

If you are successful on your 1st 2 or 3 bets, you could be dumping a large amount at the first flash of the tote for your next race. Probably wouldn't matter too much at SA, but if it were done at Sunland, you might even make a minus pool. :)

elhelmete
02-03-2018, 09:07 PM
Forgive me, I'm still trying to figure this out...and why it's superior (??) to betting a parlay manually race by race, where you could stop rolling at any time? Other than losing the ability to wager the odd coins...

What am I missing? It seems like a forced/blind bet for no additional advantage.

Andy Asaro
02-03-2018, 09:12 PM
Forgive me, I'm still trying to figure this out...and why it's superior (??) to betting a parlay manually race by race, where you could stop rolling at any time? Other than losing the ability to wager the odd coins...

What am I missing? It seems like a forced/blind bet for no additional advantage.

That is true. But many times you won't put the full amount on the second horse. Had I been able to take some out of my parlay I likely would have won half of what I did win. Additionally people who like to bet in the morning and don't have ADW's like them and of course there is the 6 horse show parlay or combination thereof. There are many times I have a few horses I like that aren't in consecutive races and they win but I miss the horizontals. I would put in a round robin at the beginning of the day with my best three and then do the other stuff. It's another option, it isn't a game changer by any means but it's certainly not harmful to anyone.

The reason it can tie in so well is IF they reduce breakage to a penny it will make WPS wagers more attractive. It all ties into churn with lower take on exactas as well IMO.

davew
02-03-2018, 09:15 PM
Forgive me, I'm still trying to figure this out...and why it's superior (??) to betting a parlay manually race by race, where you could stop rolling at any time? Other than losing the ability to wager the odd coins...

What am I missing? It seems like a forced/blind bet for no additional advantage.

because you can't make a bet for $3.20 ??

elhelmete
02-03-2018, 09:29 PM
because you can't make a bet for $3.20 ??

That's all I can think of.

I do a lot of show (sometimes place) parlays when at the track in person with a group.

We all toss in a set amount and then one person picks one horse in 1st race and if we win the next person can either crap out or roll it all over to his pick. ANd then so on. At DMR two summers ago, we had it up to a 6 winner (show) in a row and friend #7 had a nice chunk of $$$ to bet and he got weak-kneed and we cashed out and enjoyed some libations and food...only to see his theoretical pick finish 2nd at 21-1.

Any loose change on our tickets we'd save for the end and cash them, never more than a couple bucks' worth of rounding error.

carlonr
02-08-2018, 01:04 PM
Yeah, it is not really a good bet at all if it is using the straight pool takeouts, and really how else could it be done? The only advantage is that you get to pick the race to parlay. But from a takeout perspective, it is dreadful. Lets look at a simple P3 in SoCal. Win takeout is 15.43, P3 takeout is 23.68. Lets assume each winner had 20% of a 50,000 pool bet on it in each leg. These are the mythical payoffs:

Pick 3: $190.80
Parlay: $148.00

That is quite a premium to pay for picking you own races.

No thanks.

The problem I have with so many of the comments regarding this wager is that the wager is treated as an either/or type of bet when it does not need to be. If someone likes a 15/1 in race 1 and a 15 /1 in race 7 and they walk into the racetrack and bet a $2 parlay, the "wager police" are not going to follow them around and make sure that they cannot bet any other wager.

One of the best handicappers I ever met was a dapper (he wore a suit and hat to the racetrack every day!) older gentleman named Mr. Rice who was a former professional baseball player with the Birmingham Black Barons. Every day, the very 1st thing he would do is make out a $2 parlay card of his 4 or 5 best plays (always ending with his last play to show). He would then proceed to make his other bets throughout the day. In his later years, I would drive him to and from the racetrack. I was amazed at how many times he would take his parlay wager up to the window after the last race of the day and cash out for hundreds of dollars.

It was an additional wager that he made every day for only $2!

It was not a wager that restricted him from making other wagers (multi-race or otherwise) throughout the day.

IMO, this can be a great wager if not viewed as a comparison versus other wagers. It more like an additional tool in the arsenal that can have a very low risk (in dollars) and that potentially has some high rewards especially if one is primarily focusing on their "price horses of the day"

Andy Asaro
02-09-2018, 06:48 AM
https://twitter.com/BH_JBalan/status/961709489731780608


This is a great thing as a first step to adding value.

I've been pushing to bring back parlays since they were taken away in 2007. In 2012 I proposed they bring them back at Hollywood Park with a bonus on net winnings for parlays of 3 to 6 horses. But Nooooooooooo. Ritvo now wants to do something similar which is great IMO.

I’d go 10% bonus on net profit for a three and four horse parlay

15% bonus on net profit for a 4 and 5 horse parlay

And 20% bonus on net profit for any 6 horse parlay

And there are more specific details to be worked out since they are really separate WPS bets.

There are smarter people than me on the board who would probably have a better idea than mine on how to pay the bonuses and how much they should be.

Additionally he proposed this:

https://twitter.com/BH_JBalan/status/961709982604390400
I'm not one to sell a ticket when I have a shot to make a good score but I know a lot of people do. But I would imagine there are times when it makes sense. Be interesting to see if it's legal. Another innovative idea.

The big ones will be paying penny breakage and reducing exacta takeout to 16.5% if they have the guts. Only then will you be able to sell it as a gambling game of skill to the public. Churn Baby Churn.

fiznow
02-09-2018, 04:36 PM
All tracks should offer parlays. It's not really a big deal is it?

dilanesp
02-12-2018, 05:58 PM
Forgive me, I'm still trying to figure this out...and why it's superior (??) to betting a parlay manually race by race, where you could stop rolling at any time?

From a mathematical standpoint, hedges and passes of +EV bets because you are ahead are terrible. I know why players do it, but they shouldn't.

So to the extent that an automatic parlay forces you not to bail on a good bet because you have too much riding on it, you can argue that's a good thing for some players.

horses4courses
02-12-2018, 06:37 PM
This is the same interpretation as the one given by Camourous at the start of the the thread. So nothing new here.


The ticket reads as follows

$5 parlay
sh r1 #3
wps r2 #1
sh r3 #3&5

6 bets total $5

So it is clearly a parlay. Now you can't parlay horses in the same race with each other(their bet size could not be determined until after the race and the pools is closed). So the only way to interpret the ticket is that $5 goes on the 3 to show in race 1. Whatever you get back is split 3 ways into win place and show bets on #1 in race 2 and whatever you get back from that is split in 2 and bet on the 3 & 5 in race 3. That is also 6 bets (just like a round robin woud be but a round robin would require the impossible-parlaying 2 horses in one race) and the only way this ticket can make any sense.

I'm agreeing with you here.
This is potentially 6 bets, but it starts off as one $5 wager.

The only part that remains questionable is whether, or not,
breakage is allowed to roll on the parlay (which I doubt),
or your remaining funds are rounded down to the nearest $2 increment.

A novelty, for sure.
Not one that will set the pari-mutuel wagering world buzzing, though.

AndyC
02-12-2018, 07:48 PM
From a mathematical standpoint, hedges and passes of +EV bets because you are ahead are terrible. I know why players do it, but they shouldn't.

So to the extent that an automatic parlay forces you not to bail on a good bet because you have too much riding on it, you can argue that's a good thing for some players.

Let's say you have 3 bets that are all 3-1 with +EV. If you make a $20 win bet on the first horse and win you will be betting 4 times as much on your second horse and if the second one wins you will be betting 16 times as much on the 3rd horse as you did the first horse. What would be considered idiotic money management if the bets were made outside of the parlay bet somehow become good for a bettor if done in a parlay?

Having +EV bets is only part of the equation when trying to win the other is proper money management.

dilanesp
02-12-2018, 07:54 PM
Let's say you have 3 bets that are all 3-1 with +EV. If you make a $20 win bet on the first horse and win you will be betting 4 times as much on your second horse and if the second one wins you will be betting 16 times as much on the 3rd horse as you did the first horse. What would be considered idiotic money management if the bets were made outside of the parlay bet somehow become good for a bettor if done in a parlay?

Having +EV bets is only part of the equation when trying to win the other is proper money management.

I agree that parlays are stupid bets.

But it is ALSO stupid to want to hedge a +EV bet. In other words, if you really believe the last bet on the parlay is +EV, it is entirely superstitious to lose the courage of your convictions just because there is now a lot of money on the table. If you can't see it through, don't bet it in the first place.

Andy Asaro
02-12-2018, 07:55 PM
https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/963145692494442496