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View Full Version : SA 4th 2/1/18 Cl32KN3L


ultracapper
01-31-2018, 05:26 PM
Chew on this one. This should end up with some fair tote $numbers at the end.

:1: Elwood J- Hollendor/Bejarano 5
:2: Ketos- Sadler/Pereira 6
:3: Rate For Me- Weaver/TBaze 5/2
:4: Green With Eddie- O'Nell/Gutierez 6
:5: Los Gatos- Spawr/Pedroza 4
:6: Taima the Hawk- Belvoir/VanDyke 5
:7: My Man Chuckles- Baltas/Prat 6
:8: Exotic Ghost- Puype/Elliott 8
:9: At Ease- Palma/Blanc 15

When I looked at the line up before the ML was set, I thought it was going to be a pretty good puzzle. The 2nd through 7th choice are between 4/1 and 6/1. The 8th choice is at 8/1. The fav doesn't stand out, and the longest isn't trash. And then all those even horses in the middle. Love it.

Looked at the last replay of each horse, and :5: Los Gatos kind of kept my attention, but I'm not close to making a pick in this race. Should be a fun challenge. Give it a try.

Edit: Oh yea..........Down the hill. Kind of important info.

illinoisbred
01-31-2018, 05:51 PM
Looked this race over for quite some time last night. I'm torn between Green With Eddie and My Man Chuckles. Not thrilled with R. Baltas off the shortish layoff but am leaning and likely will play My Man Chuckles.

ultracapper
01-31-2018, 05:59 PM
My Man Chuckles last race looked solid to me also, along with Los Gatos. Those were both races that kind of had me wanting to put a little time into this one. All 9 "fit" well enough.

illinoisbred
01-31-2018, 06:16 PM
Agree, they all do seem to fit here. I do think if there might be too much early pace for Green With Eddie. Would like to see My Man Chuckles a bit more engaged in the race from the getgo. There is the chance he just hangs out there wide and begins loosing contact with the field around the turn.

GaryG
01-31-2018, 06:41 PM
Taima the Hawk handles the course and should get a fast enough pace.

Robert Fischer
01-31-2018, 07:22 PM
Tough race.

I keep trying to 'rationalize' the :4: Green With Eddie.
First time claiming. :1:&:2: gotta go. Maybe Mario can ration out the speed enough to get a decent trip? Last race had to go tight a couple times between the field and the rail. Stopped badly, but trying to excuse.

Not crazy about this horse or anyone else. More a spread race where I can eliminate a few horses, and pray.

jay68802
01-31-2018, 08:10 PM
To me, the :1:,:7:,:8:, and :9: are all tosses. And in the end will go with the:

:2: Ketos tactical speed and i think the last 5 races all could win.

:4: Green With Eddie O'Neill on the drop and looks to be coming around

:6: Taima the Hawk Likes the downhill course

In the end none of them would be a big shocker, so give a opinion and see what happens.

Immortal6
01-31-2018, 09:39 PM
:1: coming off the layoff, cutback in distance, Hollendorfer 23% first time claimer. Shows some early speed, doubtful he can carry it across the finish line, but we'll see.

:8: drops in class coming off the layoff. Has already shown the ability to win on this course from an outside post. My pick.

I'll likely ex box the :8: and :1: and play the :4: :5: and :6: underneath if I feel like wasting more money :bang:

trifecta
01-31-2018, 10:49 PM
I like the :8: Exotic Ghost.

Won on this course and distance three races back. Coming off a 6-month layoff but Puype is pretty good at that angle.

I'll key :8: to the :7: :6: and :1: in the exotics.

Fred Mertz
01-31-2018, 11:06 PM
:4: in the 4th race so I don't forget my bet.

:4::5: Daily Double.:coffee:

jay68802
01-31-2018, 11:25 PM
So far, :4: is the leading in votes, and no one has mentioned the ML favorite.

jocko699
01-31-2018, 11:27 PM
At this moment I believe :2: Ketos 4-1 is the play. Lots of upside to recent form and must respect.

If this guy is hammered than I believe John is betting him.

jocko699
02-01-2018, 04:36 PM
At this moment I believe :2: Ketos 4-1 is the play. Lots of upside to recent form and must respect.

If this guy is hammered than I believe John is betting him.

:2: Ketos is scratched

Robert Fischer
02-01-2018, 05:08 PM
could easily be an 'ALL' race.

I looked at post position stats, and was very surprised that the 1 post is doing better than in year's past. It can get very tight when they come back to the rail. Maybe shorter fields? Maybe adjustments? I think they leave 1 gate open...

Anyway, I'll include the :1:. I think he fits on class. Should contend with a fair trip.
Using the :1: with the :4: and the favorite :3:.


Trifecta's #8 is interesting if he can set the pace. The 5 isn't terrible...

Lemon Drop Husker
02-01-2018, 05:15 PM
I like your :5:

:8: Exotic Ghost looks like the wager to me

illinoisbred
02-01-2018, 05:17 PM
With the scratch of the #2 I'm now going to go with the #4-Green With Eddie. Will still worry about My Man Chuckles.

ultracapper
02-01-2018, 05:39 PM
As thread originator, I should do a solid recap of the race, but time has crunched down on me. So, here's my picks anyway.

:6: Taima the Hawk. Weakest field of his life. Has ran some very nice races on this course. Love the way VanDyke handled him last time he rode him. Put him right on the engine his first stretch out against the softest field he'd faced to that time, and nearly pulled it off. Conditioning is always important on this course as the cutbacks win their fair share.

:2: Ketos. SCRATCHED. Have to comment though. The turn of foot he showed as they straightened for home in his last at LosAl was very impressive, and the kind of move that wins downhill races all the time. He would have been my biggest fear.

:4: Green With Eddie. Ran his last race like blinkers will be a big help, and with the scratch of the speed to his inside, may have, on the drop, control of proceedings well into the stretch.

Good Luck all. It was good seeing some thoughts.

trifecta
02-01-2018, 06:46 PM
I like the :8: Exotic Ghost.

Won on this course and distance three races back. Coming off a 6-month layoff but Puype is pretty good at that angle.

I'll key :8: to the :7: :6: and :1: in the exotics.

finished :7::4::1:

ultracapper
02-01-2018, 07:58 PM
Illinoisbred seemed to have the best feel for the race.

It was a tough one. I was surprised how well the public really had it, other than the vulnerable favorite.

ultracapper
02-03-2018, 12:04 AM
A final post to this thread for me.

I watched the 8th today at SA, and noted how it was won. :10:, not sure of the horse's name, and really not important to this post, won in what I would call, the perfect profile for down the hill. Pressured the pace until leveling off for the stretch, and then firing for home. This is why Ketos in the subject race concerned me so much. He had shown such an impressive turn of foot in the stretch in his previous race that I was concerned that he might skip away from the field at the 3/16ths pole and never be reeled back in. Being scratched made it mute, but up to that instance, he was a very dangerous horse in the race we used as an exercise.

Anytime I can identify a horse like that going down the hill, I demand 3/1, and if I get it, I put a "fair" bet on it, after all, 3/1 isn't going to make anybody's year at the window, no matter the size of the bet, and take what I can get and move on. If for some reason, 6/1 or higher is offered, I will get rather aggressive at the window. The way the :10: won the 8th at SA today is the most predictive manner if there is a horse entered that fits the profile, and has displayed the relative distance of the race and competition of the field entered is within the horse's capabilities.

About 6 1/2 furlongs on the Santa Anita hillside turf. IMHO, one of the very best races run on a regular basis in US racing. It is a really cool race.