back up bets a good idea?

[fishorsechess]

Is it a good idea to back up certain plays?
Like place bets with win bets.
Exacta bets with Trifecta bet.
I thought this was one of the ways to beat the
track was with such type of plays.

[timtam]

I guess the only way the backup bet is if it has value. If you can get the price that is quoted near post time. Lots of time you see large sums of money being dumped in the place pool in the last flash and there goes your overlay in the place pool. Dr Z had an entire method based on place/show pools. I don't know if that method works anymore. Guys on the board here who do studies differ on backup bets and have data proving/disproving their philosophies. My general contention is getting value and if its still value when the pools close.

[ceejay]

Just my opinion here, but each bet must stand on its own from a value standpoint. The only time that I might deviate is if I have a large payout likely in a multi-race (P3 or 4) I might make some hedge bets to save my sanity.

[dav4463]

There are times when I really like a big longshot to hit the board at 20-1 or higher, 40-1 even better ! In this case, if the longshot is my "A" horse, I may play the longshot to win, second in the exacta BCDE with A and third in the trifecta BCDE w BCDE w A....and even sometimes fourth in the superfecta. That way you can still be wrong and come out right with a good price horse.

[kenwoodallpromos]

CeeJay is right.

[Jeff P]

Just my opinion here, but each bet must stand on its own from a value standpoint. The only time that I might deviate is if I have a large payout likely in a multi-race (P3 or 4) I might make some hedge bets to save my sanity.

I agree, each bet must stand on its own from a value standpoint.

That said, one thing I've looked at recently is an analysis of win bets made as hedges on horses I didn't have in the 3rd leg of a pick three where I'd already hit the first two legs of the pick three. I compared these against simply including the same horses on my pick three ticket up front instead of betting them as hedges later. I came to the realization that it's better to simply include these horses on the pick three ticket to begin with. In cases where such horses won the 3rd leg, the pick three payoffs were unexpectedly large; yet the win payoffs on bets made as hedges merely resulted in a small profit over the three race sequence.

One type of win hedge bet that I've had some success with after some experimentation occurs in a race where my primary play is an overlaid horse to win. Generally, the hit rate on my win overlays falls in the 12 - 25 percent range, depending on the situation.

Many times these horses only offer value in the first place because there is a logical horse in the race that really does stand a very good chance of winning; but that same logical horse has been overbet by the public. Quite often these logical horses are favorites. Of course, playing the logical horse to win really won't make you any money- perhaps you'll get back 90 - 93 cents on the dollar playing such horses to win. But if you consider rebates, playing such horses to win just might get you pretty close to break even.

That said, I've had some success structuring my tickets as follows:

My overlay: amount bet to win = 1 full unit
My hedge: amount bet to win = 1 full unit / odds of hedge horse

If my overlay wins I get a nice score.

If my hedge horse wins I merely break even on the race.

Breaking even allows me to take shots without taking as many hits to my bankroll. I know from experience that the return on my hedge bets is VERY close to break even.

A perfect example of this happened today in the Pacific Classic. My overlay was PERFECT DRIFT who was beaten by my hedge horse PLEASANTLY PERFECT. I took a shot and missed. Yet it cost me nothing.