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GMB@BP
01-29-2018, 08:19 PM
Timeform released their spreadsheet of the 18' Derby Preps. I wanted to track the Derby Preps and make commentary using their figures for all the prep races starting the first of the year. So some of this is rehash of previous races but will add each weekend. Feel free to rip my opinions, I dont take it personally.

Spreadsheet of all Derby Preps - https://timeformus.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/derby.png

1/6/18 Sham Stakes, 8.5F, Santa Anita

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=SA&CTY=USA&DATE=20180106&RN=5

Timeform Figures 1/4-108 1/2-108 3/4-113 Final Fig-122

Analysis - McKinzie: Its always tough to tell how good horses like McKinzie are off running lines like this. The pace was slow, almost crawling, he was kept wide both turns and inhaled the easy leaders whenever he wanted, drawing off to record a 122 (119 pace adjusted) final figure. I tend to view this in a more positive light, that an ultra talanted horse settled nicely and used his skill to run off and record a fine final time. Yes its not as impressive as stalking fast pace and running off like he did, but at least he did what he was supposed to. This is not the first fast race he has run, in fact all his races are fast. At this point this is just a serious horse for serious connections. He still has some growing up with the whole tail swishing, and if this is not a case of going sour and he figures it all out, look out.

All Out Blitz: with McKinzie taking back he became lone speed and set dawdling pace, held to run a very average second. I will be completely against this horse next out, and he likely brings value to any pool he is in off this dressed up running line.

My Boy Jack: was up close inside most of the trip, when they quickened he could not and just plugged away. I would consider him next in a return to turf.

Shivermetimbers: Very disappointing effort. Was his mdn fig a bit high? Does he want to stalk a bit more and try to finish? Either way there was no excuse to run this bad and the trouble was not relevant. He runs in the Lewis and if you think a different tactic will revert to his previous top figures he is playable but he had no excuse at all.

Race Replay
https://youtu.be/07EDQoP2wWY

GMB@BP
01-29-2018, 08:21 PM
1/13/18 Jerome Stakes, 8.0F, Aqueduct

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=AQU&CTY=USA&DATE=20180113&RN=8

Timeform Figures 1/4-81 1/2-71 3/4-86 Final Fig-101 (Muddy)

Analysis - Firenze Fire: Any talk with this race has to be taken in context with the pace, that is about as slow as graded stake three year olds can go. Its very tough to use the figures from this race and make determinations about ability, at least in regards to the winner. His trip though, wide around the turn, chasing this crawlfest, yet rallied to win is exactly what you want to see if when looking at young horses. He had nothing his own way, and yes he was supposed to win, but a lose would have been understandable. Now we don't have a great feel of his real ability with fast paces and much better horses, but as a starting point this was a great debut for his 3yo year. Timeform adjusted figure is only 99 but with the pace that figure does not mean too much.

Seven Trumpets : What kind of trip can this horse get next out that one would want to bet him, because it will not be any easier than this. Have to be against this horse off this in just about any spot.

Coltandmississippi: was never too far off it but when the real running started he lost position and fell way behind before rallying. I am not sure there isn't still some improvement for this horse around two turns and maybe in a fall apart scenario is a bit usable next time. Does not seem like a real viable contender for the Derby but should be looked at closely next out as he may improve.



Race Replay
https://youtu.be/64bIxNKuuNQ

GMB@BP
01-29-2018, 08:40 PM
1/13/18 LeComte Stakes, 8.5F, Fairgrounds

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=FG&CTY=USA&DATE=20180113&RN=9

Timeform Figures 1/4-133 1/2-129 3/4-115 Final Fig-119

Analysis - Instilled Regard: Colt has always been very highly thought of from the Hollendorfer barn and since stretching out to two turns has not been a dissappointment. Over a million dollar purchase with Phipps family breeding in his pedigree he is supposed to be good at what he is doing. He was very unlucky to lose the Los Al Futurity against two top class foes and showed how strong that race was (McKinzie also won out of it). This race sports a very solid pace of 129-115 for the middle portions of the race, and held together for a final of 119. Instilled Regard earned a pace adjusted 118. He was never too far off it but showed a nice stalking ability. Took over at the quearter pole and finished nicely. This was easily the best prep race to date and this is a top contender so far for the Derby. No real knocks on this effort.

Principe Guilherme: The favorite in this race had always made easy work of his foes, today he was challenged into the first turn, forced to take back, still finished well to be second best. I think this was a solid effort for solid connections and should he show up in a race where Instilled Regard is not in he should have a great shot to win. Lesser colts when asked to do new things often do not run, this horse did. I would continue to view this horse as a contender.

Snapper Sinclair: This horse is the value coming out of this race. He set legit fractions and held right to the end only beaten a few lengths. While the fractions are not coded red, the pace was fast, but so was the finish, with that in mind this horse ran a super race. I am not sure he can beat the top one but I think he offers value in the next race and would love to see him avoid the top one.

Zing Zang: I always view a horse like this suspect, the pace was fast and he closed strongly to look like he was just running out of ground. I suspect he will continue to show that with strong paces but will likely be overbet off this.

A horse I am going to look for coming out of this in say an Alw race is Zeke, he made a bit of a middle move, got shuffled and then tired. He is not Grade stakes level but I thought his trip was a bit hidden and against lesser foes may win at a price.

Race Replay
https://youtu.be/DFVaRGIFiLc

jocko699
01-29-2018, 09:25 PM
GMB,

Thank you for taking the time to post all of this information.

GMB@BP
01-29-2018, 10:04 PM
1/15/18 Smarty Jones Stakes, 8.0F, Oaklawn

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=OP&CTY=USA&DATE=20180115&RN=8

Timeform Figures 1/4-94 1/2-92 3/4-107 Final Fig-122

Analysis - Mourinho: A interesting contrast with McKinzie. The race had coded blue figures and a very solid final time with a 122. Pace adjusted the figure was only 116 due to the very soft front end trip. While I viewed McKinzie in a positive light I have to be negative about this son of Super Saver. This feels like a very brilliant middle distance sprinter who was well spotted by top connections. Its amazing to me how many times these socal speed horses who ship into the midwest tracks and enjoy front end wins. There is almost no scenario that I will bet this horse next out and he almost guarantees value if you are against him next race. Dynamite race, solid horse, just feel like he is limited moving forward.

Combatant: I am not sure what to think of him off this. He saved all the ground and then got outpaced on the turn, but it may be a case that with a little bit of help to set a legit pace that he has more finish. That being said I am skeptical, I fee his races have been so so and don't see any wow to him. He is likely to take good money off this effort and not sure there is any real reason to bet him in the next race in the series.

Tap Daddy: unless the distance really helps him this race exposed a lack of talent.

Just to note I dont have the pp's for this race and going off memory of these horses. I have less faith in my opinion of this race other than the winner.



Race Replay
https://youtu.be/0zwtn4A3dPA

PointGiven
01-29-2018, 10:21 PM
I'll add my thanks as well.

Tom
01-30-2018, 10:53 AM
Great idea. Look forward to participating. :ThmbUp:

Exotic1
01-30-2018, 11:14 AM
"....Timeform released their spreadsheet of the 18' Derby Preps. I wanted to track the Derby Preps and make commentary using their figures for all the prep races starting the first of the year. So some of this is rehash of previous races but will add each weekend...."

I like this format. Thanks for your efforts.

GMB@BP
02-05-2018, 03:50 PM
2/03/18 Withers Stakes, 9.0F, Aqueduct

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=AQU&CTY=USA&DATE=20180203&RN=8

Timeform Figures 1/4-141 1/2-141 3/4-131 1m-117 Final Fig-109

Analysis – Avery Island: While much of the talk will be about Audition’s win this weekend Avery Island could make the case to have run the best prep. What looked like a loose on the lead trip quickly turned into anything but when Coltinmississippi decided to gun for the lead, acting as rabbit for his other stable mates. Quickly the two leaders found themselves going way too fast for the distance with code red figures of 141 for the first two splits. While Avery Island did back off a tad the damage was done, he started to tire but only marginally, and held off Firenze Fire and Marconi. The 109 speed figure is not nearly indicative of the effort, the TUS pace adjusted figure was 114 and in my opinion looking at the way the trip developed would bump him up even higher.

Firenze Fire: This race is a definite indictment about this horses ability to go this far. I will give him a bit of credit in that he moved into the pace on the backstretch and would have definitely been better off waiting till the turn, and that may be an indication of the distance issues…its tough to take a real positive view of him Derby wise, solid horse though.

Marconi: I mean this was the ideal trip right, but this one paced horse could not make up any ground on the winner despite a huge advantage in setups. He earned a 107 adjusted figure, on my ability figures it would be even lower. Maybe Pletcher takes him down to GP and he airs but there really only seems like marginal ability at this point.

Coltinmississippi – just going to keep him on my radar for when he is put in the right spot, that’s two races in a row he has a trip I like to bet off of.



Race Replay
https://youtu.be/AwuIDieVRYk

GMB@BP
02-05-2018, 04:07 PM
2/03/18 Holy Bull Stakes, 8.5F, Gulfstream Park

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=GP&CTY=USA&DATE=20180203&RN=12

Timeform Figures 1/4-120 1/2-120 3/4-115 1m-118 Final Fig-120

Analysis – Audible: In general I find the very even distribution of final time and pace the most reliable for judging a horses ability. In this case the race pace was solid every step of the way, with a final time that was equally solid. There was no reason that horses in this race had to not run their race from a pace standpoint, unless that is of course they needed a Pace Advantage to do so. Audible was a complete unknown off his NY form, it was a bit suspicious (NY breds, off the turf race) but he did have solid figures. He was bet pretty heavy though which should have been a good clue. And like most of the Pletcher horses at GP after a sustained drive he rebroke at the top of the stretch. At face value all I can do is say this was solid. He was close to real pace, he finished up fast, earned a solid 119 TUS figure and I have no reason to not take it for just that….but it should be noted on the barn is running out of their skin right now, and usually this regresses in April and May at Kee and NY. I know Always Dreaming did not, well not till after the first Sat in May, but I would not fault anyone who is skeptical of this horse. It cant be off this effort, it was great.

Free Drop Billy: I thought it interesting how this horse was bet, which was pretty heavy. He only had 4 published works and this certainly felt like a prep race but he made a menacing turn move before not keeping up with the winner. Now he was probably a bit short, lost to the Pletcher horse who aired but I am encouraged by this effort, TUS of 113 I can see moving up a few points based on what I stated and 2L next time, betable and continues to be a contender for the Derby.

Enticed/Into Mischief: I was against these two coming in as I rated the JC race at CD much lower in my mind. I saw nothing that makes me think either one of these horses are major players or want to go further.


Race Replay
https://youtu.be/IH1VLrP6oPY

GMB@BP
02-05-2018, 04:31 PM
2/03/18 Bob Lewis Stakes, 8.5F, Santa Anita

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=SA&CTY=USA&DATE=20180203&RN=5

Timeform Figures 1/4-133 1/2-133 3/4-122 1m-113 Final Fig-109

Analysis – Lombo: There was a lot of talk about this being a glorified NW1X, which it was, but so are many races like this at this time of year. It definitely featured the “B” 3yo stock of socal but I think we saw an “A” performance. The winner has been knocked a bit in comparison to the other winners this weekend but his pace and speed figures were absolutely legit. For transparency I did hit this horse pretty good but I think he does have ability, maybe not Derby ability but he can run. I believe he went head to head with the most talented 3yo sprinter in the Country in Ax Man (yes I know about Strike Power) and his loss tipped his hand at real ability. He was expected to control the pace in my view and did just that, but did it in real horse race fashion. This race gives great context though between Avery Islands race, which went in 141 pace figure, under duress, compared to 133 free and clear running. So while I would upgrade Avery Islands effort, while not knocking this effort, it should be considered that it was a undisputed lead. I am also not sure about distance but this was a real win, buy a very talented horse... he stands, somewhere around middling contender in my book.

Ayacara: Maybe the most interesting horse to evaluate coming out of the race. He was grinding away from the 3/8ths pole on the inside and finished well. Now here is where the judgement comes in, did he close well or was it due to the face this race went from 122 at the mile to 109 finish? Maybe a little of both. I think his odds dictate what to do next time, if he is undervalued I would view it more positive, but if he is 7/2 against say Lombo and McKinzie I would not be excited to bet him. People will view his trip, trying to catch a loose on the lead winner, more than they should in context of the race shape. He was simply just better then the rest of this NW1X field. I do think he wants to route long on dirt, from a patient barn, so at this point I would keep him in the Derby mix.

Dark Vader – Was chasing the loose on the lead horse saving ground, in legit fractions himself and held well for third. Don’t know if there is any more upside but this was a legit effort in terms of the horses talent.

Peace/Shivermetimbers/Regulate – three well regarded horses from great barns did no running. Not sure I see any reason to be positive about them.


Race Replay
https://youtu.be/g1j2a8jP1pc

GMB@BP
02-06-2018, 02:43 PM
Based on my rankings as of 2/6 this is the top 5 derby contenders by 2018 performance

1. Instilled Regard
2. McKinzie
3. Avery Island
4. Audition
5. Principe Guilherme

Denny
02-06-2018, 03:05 PM
This is a GREAT thread.

Thanks for starting and maintaining it GMB.

GMB@BP
02-07-2018, 09:27 PM
Updated spreadsheet, cant edit my original post.

https://timeformus.files.wordpress.com/2018/01/derby-12.png

Afleet
02-08-2018, 09:06 PM
This is a GREAT thread.

Thanks for starting and maintaining it GMB.

Agree, thanks GMB

garyscpa
02-08-2018, 11:14 PM
Stuff like this is why we come to this site. Intelligent analysis by others.

GMB@BP
02-12-2018, 09:29 PM
2/10/18 Sam F Davis Stakes, 8.5F, Tampa Bay Downs

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=TAM&CTY=USA&DATE=20180210&RN=10

Timeform Figures 1/4-107 1/2-107 3/4-113 1m-119 Final Fig-121

Analysis - Flameaway: Ridden aggressively out of the gate to get the lead set a slow measured pace (blue fractions) and finished well to earn a solid final time, with a 118 final figure. Non Triple Crown nominated colt (trainer says was an oversight) surprised field off his avg turf form. Hard to be excited about his prospect though, maybe he is this good but just another easy front running 3yo I want to bet against next out.

Catholic Boy: I thought he ran a great race. I see many have been a bit critical because he did not go by the longshot front runner. He was wide on the slow pace first turn, not a big deal, but wide on the fast paced (turn time) far turn while passing horses is just not an ideal trip. Combine that with the fact this is a prep, not the end game, and to me this just feels exactly like a race I would want with a much bigger prize as an end game. There is this feeling anymore though when you lose you just must not be as good as people thought.

Vino Rosso: Similar to Catholic Boy I would not be too disappointed if I was his connections. Tough setup to overcome and he was finding it late. He did have a better trip than Catholic Boy. I also think he got little out of the last race crawl fest that he won in a jog, so he may have been a little short.

Hollywood Star: I dont know what to make of this horse, I have always been high on him but he really was very blah in this race, tough setup and all. Maybe he is better as a late running sprinter?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_rVKnoEpnQ
There is a replay here, will update if one becomes available on Youtube.

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/sam-f-davis

GMB@BP
02-12-2018, 09:47 PM
2/10/18 San Vicente, 7F, Santa Anita

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=SA&CTY=USA&DATE=20180210&RN=6

Timeform Figures 1/4-146 1/2-134 3/4-123 Final Fig-116

Analysis - Kanthanka: Normally I would not have a 7F race in a Derby prep section but this race has produced some Derby horses in Nyquist and Silver Charm. I rated Kantanka with a punchers chance should a melt down occur, probably underestimated his maiden win as he had trouble, but a great setup as well. While he was captializing on the collapsing pace around the turn it was still fast, rather have a horse do that than it be much slower than par. He made such a big turn move he tired pretty good late. His breeding to me is suspect going longer and that turn move just screams sprinter. I can't toss him at this point but I would eliminate him in most cases going long next time and try to use his action to increase my positive expectation on the race.

Nero: He ran the best race, and its actually not that close. He actually earned the better TUS figure, 118-116 against the winner. But I think all that is secondary. Nero, heard about this colt back in May or so. But horse is a headcase, supposedly he can just turn off when you ask him to really run, or hit him. In this race though, after being gutted by those fractions Ezpinosa really got into him, and he didnt quit, if anything he stayed on in remarkable fashion. If this horse has turned the corner he is very dangerous. I am not sure I play him next out as everyone will know he ran a great race, just saying this a talented colt.

All Out Blitz: Too bad he showed up here and not going long against a middling field as off his last race as stated in another thread he pretty much had no shot. 9/1 or 10% of the pool is only half the track takeout so his elimination from this field didnt help to much in playing the race.

Ax Man: Broke step slow, rushed up into suicide pace, collapsed. Feels like a betable horse in the right spot next time to me.


Race Replay
https://youtu.be/jPEGF8i_nFA

CincyHorseplayer
02-12-2018, 11:54 PM
2/10/18 Sam F Davis Stakes, 8.5F, Tampa Bay Downs

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=TAM&CTY=USA&DATE=20180210&RN=10

Timeform Figures 1/4-107 1/2-107 3/4-113 1m-119 Final Fig-121

Analysis - Flameaway: Ridden aggressively out of the gate to get the lead set a slow measured pace (blue fractions) and finished well to earn a solid final time, with a 118 final figure. Non Triple Crown nominated colt (trainer says was an oversight) surprised field off his avg turf form. Hard to be excited about his prospect though, maybe he is this good but just another easy front running 3yo I want to bet against next out.

Catholic Boy: I thought he ran a great race. I see many have been a bit critical because he did not go by the longshot front runner. He was wide on the slow pace first turn, not a big deal, but wide on the fast paced (turn time) far turn while passing horses is just not an ideal trip. Combine that with the fact this is a prep, not the end game, and to me this just feels exactly like a race I would want with a much bigger prize as an end game. There is this feeling anymore though when you lose you just must not be as good as people thought.

Vino Rosso: Similar to Catholic Boy I would not be too disappointed if I was his connections. Tough setup to overcome and he was finding it late. He did have a better trip than Catholic Boy. I also think he got little out of the last race crawl fest that he won in a jog, so he may have been a little short.

Hollywood Star: I dont know what to make of this horse, I have always been high on him but he really was very blah in this race, tough setup and all. Maybe he is better as a late running sprinter?


I could not find a full race replay on youtube.
Race Replay
https://youtu.be/bEsbcaKRw-s

There is a replay here, will update if one becomes available on Youtube.

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/prep-races/sam-f-davis

I bet this race and would have gotten a 7-1 return no matter whose nose was in front but I was astonished how well this one ran. You go straight to the lead and hold off a well regarded horse prep or no prep and turf to dirt, you have done something. That was impressive. Good old fashioned blood and guts win. Bet against? I bet against all these 3yos when they turn 2-1 or less!

GMB@BP
02-13-2018, 12:35 AM
I bet this race and would have gotten a 7-1 return no matter whose nose was in front but I was astonished how well this one ran. You go straight to the lead and hold off a well regarded horse prep or no prep and turf to dirt, you have done something. That was impressive. Good old fashioned blood and guts win. Bet against? I bet against all these 3yos when they turn 2-1 or less!

I agree to a certain extent, long term this horse could be any kind. I just look to bet against these types off that running line, but heck they throw him to the wolves he is going to still be a pretty good price so guess we can cross that bridge next time.

GMB@BP
02-17-2018, 07:20 PM
Snapper Sinclair: This horse is the value coming out of this race. He set legit fractions and held right to the end only beaten a few lengths. While the fractions are not coded red, the pace was fast, but so was the finish, with that in mind this horse ran a super race. I am not sure he can beat the top one but I think he offers value in the next race and would love to see him avoid the top one.

What a painful beat....it was just a 20 dollar win bet but man....ouch

cj
02-17-2018, 09:25 PM
What a painful beat....it was just a 20 dollar win bet but man....ouch

Brutal beat. :mad:

CincyHorseplayer
02-18-2018, 12:43 AM
GMB@BP that stinks!

I backed my way into this one again this week by wimping out on my selection! I thought the winner had a solid fig and finish vs a solid pace and was a Calumet but wussed out and decided to key off the favorite :5: with :7:. underneath as value. Was going to play even pay exactas between the two but at 20-1 played $14 win on :7: and $10 exacta :5::7:($1 was saying $28) with a few break even hedges with those two on top.

Boy I sure wish I would have connected with you about the placer beforehand.

cj
02-18-2018, 01:35 AM
https://twitter.com/JohnGDooley/status/965005838141280261

menifee
02-18-2018, 02:06 AM
What a bad race - all bets against next time for me.

dilanesp
02-18-2018, 10:45 AM
What a bad race - all bets against next time for me.

I think the slow pace compromised Instilled Regard and Noble Indy. Any time you see the closers look like they are running on a treadmill in the stretch after slow fractions, throw the race out.

GMB@BP
02-18-2018, 10:57 AM
I think the slow pace compromised Instilled Regard and Noble Indy. Any time you see the closers look like they are running on a treadmill in the stretch after slow fractions, throw the race out.

Looking at the charts for the day, and its not often to have so many route races to compare from good horses, unless the track changed the pace was Average.

Just think maybe Hollendorfer took the last month easy with the horse, 2 straight ships, whatever he just was a bit dull. Let see what happens next time, but if I was his connections I would look to stay at home and see what happens.

The race was definitely slowing down, there should have been someone closing in that race, so while I wont entirely knock the top 4 the horses, behind those flat out where bad, and i have no idea what happened to Pincipe.

dilanesp
02-18-2018, 09:58 PM
Looking at the charts for the day, and its not often to have so many route races to compare from good horses, unless the track changed the pace was Average.

Just think maybe Hollendorfer took the last month easy with the horse, 2 straight ships, whatever he just was a bit dull. Let see what happens next time, but if I was his connections I would look to stay at home and see what happens.

The race was definitely slowing down, there should have been someone closing in that race, so while I wont entirely knock the top 4 the horses, behind those flat out where bad, and i have no idea what happened to Pincipe.

If I understand cj's speed figure system (posted in the other thread), Instilled Regard regressed at least a couple of lengths in that race. And he was beaten by a horse that he had beaten when the pace was faster last time out. So I am inclined to think he was compromised by the slow pace. I am skeptical that a :24 quarter mile is a "normal" pace over there, but it is possible you are right and I am wrong.

GMB@BP
02-19-2018, 11:55 AM
I know in my write up from the La Comte stakes I really thought Zing Zang running line was a bit dressed up, basically passed the ones who couldn’t run much. That being said I want to bet against Mourinho off his last race. I also want to play against Sporting Chance.

It feels like Zing Zang or Combatant, and the post on Combatant is not so hot and he will likely be lower than 6/1. Anything around 15/1 would be very fair on Zing Zang.

dilanesp
02-19-2018, 07:53 PM
That was a hell of a ride by Kent D. on My Boy Jack.

GMB@BP
02-19-2018, 09:34 PM
That was a hell of a ride by Kent D. on My Boy Jack.

yup, kent is one of the best at knowing what is going on with the track and that was a monster inside bias. I watched all the races and the parade of longshots who outran their odds or won is pretty much a no debate to me on that track.

the four horses who spent the majority of time on the inside in the Southwest were the 1-10-4-2...

I guess with that in mind Zing Zang, who I bet ran better than I thought initially.

GMB@BP
02-21-2018, 08:18 AM
2/17/18 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5F, Fairgrounds

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=FG&CTY=USA&DATE=20180217&RN=9

Timeform Figures 1/4-110 1/2-109 3/4-106 Final Fig-118

Analysis - Bronzino - These are the very horses that make betting on the Triple Crown preps so difficult, lightly race well bred from good barns coming off easy lower level wins. Pace was average to slightly slow at the quarter pole. Now I would give this colt some credit because they did fly home going from 106-118, and the early fractions were not slow so my feeling was this should be regarded as a good starting point and this colt may have a future. That being said, perfect 2w trip able to sit with the place horse all the way around the track. In fact look at the entire, ever see a merry go round race for all 9 horses? This race has me skeptical in terms of using it for future handicapping.

Snapper Sinclair: 41-1 horse should never have been those odds coming of a legit effort in the Le Comte as we reviewed. His analysis is the same as Bronzino, except he now has done it twice. I would not be shocked on the stretch out if he is lone speed he can run very well again. This horse seems like a player in this years trail to me.

Noble Indy: Ran ok I suppose but I would have like to see a little more down the stretch given the trip. He is still likely to be overbet in his next race as he was in this one.

Instilled Regard: Bit of a flat effort. My feeling is Hollendorfer may not have cranked him up in this race and his rider may have been a little over confident that he could take the top two, when they quickened, and they did, it was a little to late. I feel like this horse will be better with a mid pack more honest pace. I still view him as a strong contender at this point.

Race Replay
https://youtu.be/u3Xifrxihm4

GMB@BP
02-21-2018, 08:34 AM
2/19/18 Southwest Stakes, 8.5F, Oaklawn

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=OP&CTY=USA&DATE=20180219&RN=9

Timeform Figures 1/4-144 1/2-134 3/4-115 Final Fig-118 muddy(sealed)

Analysis - My Boy Jack: Any discussion about this race has to start with the track. I reviewed all 10 races on the card and it pretty obvious this is a extreme inside bias track. Race after race horse who hugged the rail during the race, and especially down the lane made up ground or had more energy that outside horses. While none of the fractions were red as timing wise the race did not fall apart it sure favored horses from off the pace. My Boy Jack saved all the ground, rallied up the rail, in a race that strongly favored closers. Do you want to bet this horse next time? Me neither. Marginal contender at this point and only franks the form of McKinzie.

Combatant: What a great ride by Santana. Somehow got to the rail on the first turn, stayed there till he had to tip out and could not match the winner who was able to stay on the rail. Still though, in a race with a ton of speed horses and fast pace to boot and good rail he should have finished a bit better. Given the mud I am going to view him as a marginal contender and in his next race depending on the odds may play him. There still could be a forward move for him.

Sporting Chance: I suppose this was a good starting spot, but he did stay on the inside. Given the fast fractions I can view as a decent effort and play him in the right spot. He feels like he will be overbet off this, guess will have to judge on the field he faces.

Mourhino: The horse we were against off his last prep. He didnt run bad given the pace but also was inside the whole way, and I dont think this field had any killers in it. At this point feels like a real longshot derby contender.

Zing Zang - I am just pointing out that he was outside the whole way, as a Derby contender he should have finished better but in a easier spot I see him as a possible play.

Race Replay (6 min mark)
https://youtu.be/IWb-TzZUjqI