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View Full Version : When Good Chalks Go Bad @AQU!!!


TheOracle
01-28-2018, 09:41 PM
Over the past three racing days at Aqueduct Iíve noticed that Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 were getting destroyed they were only winning at 18.1% prior to Sunday

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2268424#post2268424

The actual Favorites were equally getting destroyed as well

It has been a while since Iíve seen such poor performances from Favorites and from what I could tell there were no weather issues.

This has been one of the warmest Januaryís at Aqueduct in years and the famous backstretch wind, to me, had not been a factor over the past three days

If you played long shots at Aqueduct since Thursday you were doing quite well as the average win price prior to Sunday was $14.10

However, for the rest of us, this was a complete carnage in trying to cash a ticket

If I see this type of destruction going into day a 3 and beyond Iím going to start looking at Trainers on the card comparatively to see who is giving the best return per $2 win place and show wager

Whosonfirst
01-29-2018, 09:03 AM
Pandy's well written thread on recent track bias might be a good place for you to start.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=143048

TheOracle
02-01-2018, 11:01 AM
Over the past three racing days at Aqueduct Iíve noticed that Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 were getting destroyed they were only winning at 18.1% prior to Sunday

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2268424#post2268424

The actual Favorites were equally getting destroyed as well

It has been a while since Iíve seen such poor performances from Favorites and from what I could tell there were no weather issues.

This has been one of the warmest Januaryís at Aqueduct in years and the famous backstretch wind, to me, had not been a factor over the past three days

If you played long shots at Aqueduct since Thursday you were doing quite well as the average win price prior to Sunday was $14.10

However, for the rest of us, this was a complete carnage in trying to cash a ticket

If I see this type of destruction going into day a 3 and beyond Iím going to start looking at Trainers on the card comparatively to see who is giving the best return per $2 win place and show wager


Today at Aqueduct there are 16 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1
which makes up 28% of the entire card before scratches


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 02-01-2018 1st race 2 B Three (NY) Claiming One Mile G DiPrima 7/5# Dirt
2 02-01-2018 1st race 3 Queenofthechannel (KY) Claiming One Mile R Metivier 9/5# Dirt
3 02-01-2018 2nd race 2 Ekhtibaar (KY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile C C Brown 4/5# Dirt
4 02-01-2018 2nd race 5 Dambrosio (KY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile T A Pletcher 8/5# Dirt
5 02-01-2018 3rd race 1 The Chamo (FL) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs G C Contessa 9/5# Dirt
6 02-01-2018 3rd race 1A Triangulate (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs L Rice 9/5# Dirt
7 02-01-2018 3rd race 2 Im an Ocala Dude (FL) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs M Nevin 5/2# Dirt
8 02-01-2018 4th race 2 Astounding (KY) Allowance One And One Eighth Miles J Servis 9/5# Dirt
9 02-01-2018 4th race 5 Storm Prophet (NY) Allowance One And One Eighth Miles L Rice 2/1# Dirt
10 02-01-2018 5th race 2 Split Verdict (KY) Maiden Special Weight Seven Furlongs R A Violette Jr. 9/5# Dirt
11 02-01-2018 5th race 3 Racing Raven (KY) Maiden Special Weight Seven Furlongs T A Pletcher 2/1# Dirt
12 02-01-2018 6th race 3 City of Dreams (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs W A Ward 5/2# Dirt
13 02-01-2018 7th race 2 Tasteful (KY) Allowance One Mile K P McLaughlin 2/1# Dirt
14 02-01-2018 7th race 3 Full House (KY) Allowance One Mile J A Jerkens 9/5# Dirt
15 02-01-2018 8th race 2 Jurere (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile L Rice 6/5# Dirt
16 02-01-2018 8th race 6 Northernstreetgal (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile G C Contessa 5/2# Dirt
If they are still winning at a rate of only 18 to 20% then I will have to look at which Trainers have been benefiting from this situation!!!

Let's see what Nevin and Rice do today!!!

TheOracle
02-01-2018, 11:21 AM
Today at Aqueduct there are 16 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1
which makes up 28% of the entire card before scratches


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 02-01-2018 1st race 2 B Three (NY) Claiming One Mile G DiPrima 7/5# Dirt
2 02-01-2018 1st race 3 Queenofthechannel (KY) Claiming One Mile R Metivier 9/5# Dirt
3 02-01-2018 2nd race 2 Ekhtibaar (KY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile C C Brown 4/5# Dirt
4 02-01-2018 2nd race 5 Dambrosio (KY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile T A Pletcher 8/5# Dirt
5 02-01-2018 3rd race 1 The Chamo (FL) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs G C Contessa 9/5# Dirt
6 02-01-2018 3rd race 1A Triangulate (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs L Rice 9/5# Dirt
7 02-01-2018 3rd race 2 Im an Ocala Dude (FL) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs M Nevin 5/2# Dirt
8 02-01-2018 4th race 2 Astounding (KY) Allowance One And One Eighth Miles J Servis 9/5# Dirt
9 02-01-2018 4th race 5 Storm Prophet (NY) Allowance One And One Eighth Miles L Rice 2/1# Dirt
10 02-01-2018 5th race 2 Split Verdict (KY) Maiden Special Weight Seven Furlongs R A Violette Jr. 9/5# Dirt
11 02-01-2018 5th race 3 Racing Raven (KY) Maiden Special Weight Seven Furlongs T A Pletcher 2/1# Dirt
12 02-01-2018 6th race 3 City of Dreams (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs W A Ward 5/2# Dirt
13 02-01-2018 7th race 2 Tasteful (KY) Allowance One Mile K P McLaughlin 2/1# Dirt
14 02-01-2018 7th race 3 Full House (KY) Allowance One Mile J A Jerkens 9/5# Dirt
15 02-01-2018 8th race 2 Jurere (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile L Rice 6/5# Dirt
16 02-01-2018 8th race 6 Northernstreetgal (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile G C Contessa 5/2# Dirt
If they are still winning at a rate of only 18 to 20% then I will have to look at which Trainers have been benefiting from this situation!!!

Let's see what Nevin and Rice do today!!!

Here are the Trainers on today's card that had positive returns per $2 win place and show wager from last Thursday up until Sunday when things fell apart for the Morning Line Favorites

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/trainercompareaqu.png

I will also be paying particular attention to G C Contessa's horses should things start go south today his horses didn't win much but they hit the board for some nice prices!!!



RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 02-01-2018 3rd race 1 The Chamo (FL) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs G C Contessa 9/5# Dirt

2 02-01-2018 5th race 7 Power Boss (KY) Maiden Special Weight Seven Furlongs G C Contessa 8/1# Dirt

3 02-01-2018 8th race 6 Northernstreetgal (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile G C Contessa 5/2# Dirt
He has these today let's see how he does especially in the 5th race today at Aqueduct!!!

TheOracle
02-02-2018, 08:14 AM
Here are the Trainers on today's card that had positive returns per $2 win place and show wager from last Thursday up until Sunday when things fell apart for the Morning Line Favorites

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/trainercompareaqu.png

I will also be paying particular attention to G C Contessa's horses should things start go south today his horses didn't win much but they hit the board for some nice prices!!!



RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 02-01-2018 3rd race 1 The Chamo (FL) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs G C Contessa 9/5# Dirt

2 02-01-2018 5th race 7 Power Boss (KY) Maiden Special Weight Seven Furlongs G C Contessa 8/1# Dirt

3 02-01-2018 8th race 6 Northernstreetgal (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile G C Contessa 5/2# Dirt
He has these today let's see how he does especially in the 5th race today at Aqueduct!!!

Only Nevin, Martin and Ward had positive returns across the board yesterday from the list

Contessa came through with #6 Northernstreetgal one of the few Morning Line Favorites to win yesterday at Aqueduct!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

TheOracle
02-02-2018, 11:12 AM
Here are the Trainers on today's card with positive returns per $2 win place and show wager from Thursday up until yesterday at Aqueduct!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/aqutrainlstwk.png

Since things are going strange with the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 let's pivot and concentrate on J C Englehart and D S Lalman today!!!

TheOracle
02-02-2018, 11:50 AM
Here are the Trainers on today's card with positive returns per $2 win place and show wager from Thursday up until yesterday at Aqueduct!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/aqutrainlstwk.png

Since things are going strange with the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 let's pivot and concentrate on J C Englehart and D S Lalman today!!!

Lalman has been a very good investment across the board at Aqueduct since November!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/d lalmanaqufrmnov.png

Lalman is bringing back #4 Alaapatique in the 6th race today at Aqueduct

6th race
#4 Alaapatique

Let's see if Lalman can get this one to hit the board at a price today!!!

TheOracle
02-02-2018, 12:22 PM
J C Englehart has these today at Aqueduct!!!

2nd race
#4 Spiral Bound

4th race
#5 Karens Gem

Letís see if he can get these to hit the board today at a price!!!

TheOracle
02-02-2018, 12:27 PM
For the Morning Lines less than 3-1 on todayís card at Aqueduct


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 02-02-2018 2nd race 1 Gypsy Jo (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs R A Violette Jr. 5/2# Dirt
2 02-02-2018 4th race 3 Cocktail Countess (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Dirt


Letís see how these do today!!!

TheOracle
02-03-2018, 11:14 AM
Lalman has been a very good investment across the board at Aqueduct since November!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/d lalmanaqufrmnov.png

Lalman is bringing back #4 Alaapatique in the 6th race today at Aqueduct

6th race
#4 Alaapatique

Let's see if Lalman can get this one to hit the board at a price today!!!

Well #4 Alaapatique disappointed and ran off the board yesterday

I focused on Lalman trying to be greedy and forgot about Contessa whose horses have been giving good returns across the board

TheOracle
02-03-2018, 11:24 AM
For the Morning Lines less than 3-1 on todayís card at Aqueduct


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 02-02-2018 2nd race 1 Gypsy Jo (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs R A Violette Jr. 5/2# Dirt
2 02-02-2018 4th race 3 Cocktail Countess (KY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Dirt


Letís see how these do today!!!

#1 Gypsy Jo and #3 Cocktail Countess finished 2nd and 3rd respectively as Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 continue to struggle at Aqueduct!!!

It seems you can beat the Morning Line Favorites anytime you want for now

TheOracle
02-03-2018, 11:35 AM
J C Englehart has these today at Aqueduct!!!

2nd race
#4 Spiral Bound

4th race
#5 Karens Gem

Letís see if he can get these to hit the board today at a price!!!

#4 Spiral Bound and #5 Karens Gem disappointed and were both off the board for Englehart yesterday!!!

TheOracle
02-03-2018, 11:43 AM
Well #4 Alaapatique disappointed and ran off the board yesterday

I focused on Lalman trying to be greedy and forgot about Contessa whose horses have been giving good returns across the board

Contessa has these at Aqueduct today


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 02-03-2018 1st race 3 American Road (KY) Claiming One Mile G C Contessa 4/1# Dirt

2 02-03-2018 2nd race 6 Theresas Boy (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs G C Contessa 3/1# Dirt

3 02-03-2018 5th race 3 Starlite Mission (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs G C Contessa 9/2# Dirt

4 02-03-2018 6th race 7 Heat Check (NY) Claiming One Mile G C Contessa 20/1# Dirt

5 02-03-2018 7th race 5 Mighty Zealous (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs G C Contessa 5/1# Dirt


Letís see how these do today at the Big A!!!

TheOracle
02-03-2018, 01:06 PM
Contessa has these at Aqueduct today


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 02-03-2018 1st race 3 American Road (KY) Claiming One Mile G C Contessa 4/1# Dirt

2 02-03-2018 2nd race 6 Theresas Boy (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs G C Contessa 3/1# Dirt

3 02-03-2018 5th race 3 Starlite Mission (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs G C Contessa 9/2# Dirt

4 02-03-2018 6th race 7 Heat Check (NY) Claiming One Mile G C Contessa 20/1# Dirt

5 02-03-2018 7th race 5 Mighty Zealous (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs G C Contessa 5/1# Dirt
Letís see how these do today at the Big A!!!


Contessa's record since January 25th

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/contessahitngbrd.png

He is giving you a 38% return per $2 win place and show wager he might be able to get one to pop for a nice price today at Aqueduct especially the way the Favorites have been running!!!

TheOracle
02-03-2018, 08:43 PM
Contessa has these at Aqueduct today


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 02-03-2018 1st race 3 American Road (KY) Claiming One Mile G C Contessa 4/1# Dirt

2 02-03-2018 2nd race 6 Theresas Boy (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs G C Contessa 3/1# Dirt

3 02-03-2018 5th race 3 Starlite Mission (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs G C Contessa 9/2# Dirt

4 02-03-2018 6th race 7 Heat Check (NY) Claiming One Mile G C Contessa 20/1# Dirt

5 02-03-2018 7th race 5 Mighty Zealous (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs G C Contessa 5/1# Dirt


Letís see how these do today at the Big A!!!


Contessaís horses did absolutely nothing today


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: TrackCond: WinAmt: PlaceAmt: ShowAmt:
1 02-03-2018 1st race 3 American Road (KY) Claiming One Mile G C Contessa 4/1# Dirt Good 0.0 0.0 0.0

2 02-03-2018 2nd race 6 Theresas Boy (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs G C Contessa 3/1# Dirt Good 0.0 0.0 2.2

3 02-03-2018 5th race 3 Starlite Mission (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs G C Contessa 9/2# Dirt Fast 0.0 0.0 0.0

4 02-03-2018 6th race 7 Heat Check (NY) Claiming One Mile G C Contessa 20/1# Dirt Fast 0.0 0.0 0.0

5 02-03-2018 7th race 5 Mighty Zealous (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs G C Contessa 5/1# Dirt Fast 0.0 0.0 0.0


I was hoping one of these would pop for a price!!!

TheOracle
02-03-2018, 09:40 PM
Contessaís horses did absolutely nothing today


RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: TrackCond: WinAmt: PlaceAmt: ShowAmt:
1 02-03-2018 1st race 3 American Road (KY) Claiming One Mile G C Contessa 4/1# Dirt Good 0.0 0.0 0.0

2 02-03-2018 2nd race 6 Theresas Boy (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs G C Contessa 3/1# Dirt Good 0.0 0.0 2.2

3 02-03-2018 5th race 3 Starlite Mission (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs G C Contessa 9/2# Dirt Fast 0.0 0.0 0.0

4 02-03-2018 6th race 7 Heat Check (NY) Claiming One Mile G C Contessa 20/1# Dirt Fast 0.0 0.0 0.0

5 02-03-2018 7th race 5 Mighty Zealous (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs G C Contessa 5/1# Dirt Fast 0.0 0.0 0.0
I was hoping one of these would pop for a price!!!

Contessa went 0 for 5 today just one hitting the board and not much of a price

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/contessacoldaqu.png

Maybe things are starting to get back to normal at Aqueduct!!!

TheOracle
02-04-2018, 11:37 AM
Below are todayís Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 today at Aqueduct!!!

These make up 25% of the entire card before scratches!!!

RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface:
1 02-04-2018 1st race 1 Lady Suebee (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six And One Half Furlongs C C Brown 4/5# Dirt
2 02-04-2018 1st race 1A Oozle (MD) Maiden Special Weight Six And One Half Furlongs C C Brown 4/5# Dirt
3 02-04-2018 1st race 5 Sara Street (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six And One Half Furlongs K P McLaughlin 5/2# Dirt
4 02-04-2018 2nd race 4 Big Thicket (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile L Rice 2/1# Dirt
5 02-04-2018 3rd race 3 Mr. President (NY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile M J Maker 7/5# Dirt
6 02-04-2018 3rd race 6 Lutheran Rags (NY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile J T Toscano Jr. 2/1# Dirt
7 02-04-2018 4th race 1 Toohottoevenspeak (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs R Diodoro 8/5# Dirt
8 02-04-2018 4th race 8 Delta Outlaw (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs D Jacobson 5/2# Dirt
9 02-04-2018 5th race 4 Simona (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs D P Duggan 8/5# Dirt
10 02-04-2018 5th race 5 Lune Lake (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs J C Kimmel 5/2# Dirt
11 02-04-2018 6th race 4 Special Story (NY) Claiming One Mile R Diodoro 2/1# Dirt
12 02-04-2018 6th race 8 Dynamax Prime (NY) Claiming One Mile G Weaver 5/2# Dirt
13 02-04-2018 7th race 1 Blewitt (NY) Allowance One Mile T A Pletcher 1/2# Dirt
14 02-04-2018 8th race 2 Lasting Legacy (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile J Servis 5/2# Dirt
15 02-04-2018 8th race 6 Gift Box (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile C C Brown 8/5# Dirt
16 02-04-2018 9th race 3 Javelin (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 1/1# Dirt
17 02-04-2018 9th race 4 Ransom Note (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Dirt


Letís see what Diodoro, Weaver and Dugan do today!!!

It looks to be Chalky today at Aqueduct!!!

Letís see if things are truly back to normal!!!

TheOracle
02-10-2018, 02:18 PM
Well #4 Alaapatique disappointed and ran off the board yesterday

I focused on Lalman trying to be greedy and forgot about Contessa whose horses have been giving good returns across the board

Lalman is bringing back #3 Alaapatique in the 5th race today at Aqueduct!!!

Letís see if he can get this one to hit the board today at a price!!!