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outofthebox
01-28-2018, 07:24 PM
Yuvetsi heading to gate at SA at 13-1. Entering gate she is 10-1. She hits the wire in front at 5-1. That is some serious late action to move a horse without any late scratches. Holy crap...

thaskalos
01-28-2018, 07:51 PM
Can you imagine what the closing odds on Yuvetsi would have been if the race was a ROUTE instead of a sprint?

VigorsTheGrey
01-28-2018, 08:23 PM
Yuvetsi heading to gate at SA at 13-1. Entering gate she is 10-1. She hits the wire in front at 5-1. That is some serious late action to move a horse without any late scratches. Holy crap...

Glad you picked up on that...thought I was going crazy...I saw the horse load at 13-1...didn't know what to think when it paid 5-1...:eek:

Frost king
01-28-2018, 08:41 PM
Horse was 3rd choice in the Doubles, and the Pick 3 going into the race.

ultracapper
01-28-2018, 09:01 PM
Horse was 3rd choice in the Doubles, and the Pick 3 going into the race.

The "bots" detect the pool discrepancy and suck the value right out of it.

VigorsTheGrey
01-28-2018, 09:07 PM
The "bots" detect the pool discrepancy and suck the value right out of it.

Really...this IS true isn't it...? Has racing really come to this...?

Automated betting programs that use arbitrage programs to find and "recover" the net value in a race no matter who wins...No wonder wagering is going down the tubes for the little guys...SUCKS BIG TIME. BAN THEM.

ultracapper
01-28-2018, 09:41 PM
There are only 3 possible scenarios here.

1) The crowd makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, notices the discrepancy at post time, and corrects it. Likely hood........ damn near 0%

2) A bettor in the know or a handicapper that has "found a jewel" makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, and then capitalizes additionally on the overlay in the win pool with a $10K to $15K win bet, the amount necessary at SA to move a horse from 13-1 to 5-1 on a high handle Sunday afternoon.
Likely hood.............maybe, maybe, not impossible.

3) Combo of crowd and committed bettors throw this horse into their DDs and P3 combos as a "most likely alternative" to the main contenders, horse gets neglected in the win pool, bot picks up on it. Likely hood............better bet than the other two.

VigorsTheGrey
01-28-2018, 10:05 PM
There are only 3 possible scenarios here.

1) The crowd makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, notices the discrepancy at post time, and corrects it. Likely hood........ damn near 0%

2) A bettor in the know or a handicapper that has "found a jewel" makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, and then capitalizes additionally on the overlay in the win pool with a $10K to $15K win bet, the amount necessary at SA to move a horse from 13-1 to 5-1 on a high handle Sunday afternoon.
Likely hood.............maybe, maybe, not impossible.

3) Combo of crowd and committed bettors throw this horse into their DDs and P3 combos as a "most likely alternative" to the main contenders, horse gets neglected in the win pool, bot picks up on it. Likely hood............better bet than the other two.
Either the bots are in use or they are not, generally...would like someone who knows for sure to step up and say so...if that is the case, and the bots are in play then we must assume that they are in play for a large percentage of racing, draining value out of the parimutuel pools...though I don't know if this is legal, it certainly is not fair to the rank and file bettors (But hey, who cares about fairness, right...? (stinking liberals)...)

Does anyone really know for sure, and how pervasive robo-wagers are....?

ultracapper
01-28-2018, 10:09 PM
The fact there were 2 bets made, first, from 13/1 to 10/1, and then seeing after that bet that the adjustment isn't maximized, from 10/1 to 5/1, indicates that there is just some mathematics driven program directing that adjustment. IMHO.

Neither bet, at that time in the betting process, are insignificant moves. It took $1000s each time to make those moves.

iamt
01-28-2018, 10:12 PM
Why is the assumption that the bot is only coming in late.

It is more likely that the bot was responsible for the runner being short in the double and pick 3s to start with. The public has then continued to neglect the horse in the win pools up until post time where the bot comes in and bets the runner down closer to their line.

VigorsTheGrey
01-28-2018, 10:12 PM
The fact there were 2 bets made, first, from 13/1 to 10/1, and then seeing after that bet that the adjustment isn't maximized, from 10/1 to 5/1, indicates that there is just some mathematics driven program directing that adjustment. IMHO.

Neither bet, at that time in the betting process, are insignificant moves. It took $1000s each time to make those moves.
So robo-wagering programs are a reality and are in use, right...?

cj
01-28-2018, 10:15 PM
Either the bots are in use or they are not, generally...would like someone who knows for sure to step up and say so...if that is the case, and the bots are in play then we must assume that they are in play for a large percentage of racing, draining value out of the parimutuel pools...though I don't know if this is legal, it certainly is not fair to the rank and file bettors (But hey, who cares about fairness, right...? (stinking liberals)...)

Does anyone really know for sure, and how pervasive robo-wagers are....?

Of course they are in play, this has been going on for a while, CRW = Computer Robotic Wagering.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/archive/2015/11/17/computer-robotic-wagering-crw-by-frank-angst.aspx

VigorsTheGrey
01-28-2018, 10:25 PM
Of course they are in play, this has been going on for a while, CRW = Computer Robotic Wagering.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/archive/2015/11/17/computer-robotic-wagering-crw-by-frank-angst.aspx

My main concern is, if indeed CRW utilizes arbitrage methods that clearly make profits by shifting amounts in such a fashion that makes it automatically profitable given the current set-up with rebates and all...?

I've read that, for entities wagers many millions of dollars per year, the rebates could be as high as 8% or more...

chenoa
01-28-2018, 10:31 PM
What about chunks of cancelled win money on another horse affecting the odds, have seen that before!!

ultracapper
01-28-2018, 10:32 PM
Why is the assumption that the bot is only coming in late.

It is more likely that the bot was responsible for the runner being short in the double and pick 3s to start with. The public has then continued to neglect the horse in the win pools up until post time where the bot comes in and bets the runner down closer to their line.

Why would the bot make the horse short in the exotics? That would imply handicapping. Sure, the bot could scan the will pays for race 8 while betting is going on for race 6, but how would it know there is an overlay in the P3 pool, how would it know where the subject horse should stand in the hierarchy of odds, unless it has given some type of handicapped value to the subject horse in advance? By scanning values during the betting of race 8, the bot just sees the pools are out of whack, and fixes them. No handicapping involved.

Your scenario would fit my example 2 more than bot involvement.

chenoa
01-28-2018, 10:42 PM
Look at doubles with :3:and:9:going into the 9th, the :3:is higher with every horse except the winner which was the :5:.

This smells!!!

VigorsTheGrey
01-28-2018, 10:44 PM
This stinks to high heaven...! These sharpies are linked into will-pay tables using programs that look for patterns and overlays and execute thousands of wagers in nano-seconds..

....obviously that is an edge that is being exploited using high-technology that the rest of us just don't have...

...if this means that the majority of winnings are returned to a small subset of high-tech CRW operators at the expense of higher take-out rates for all of us, then that is just plain NASTY...

...even if you think it is just an intelligent way to make money....it just doesn't seem right...just feels like a pool skimming operation, in essence...IMHO.

ultracapper
01-28-2018, 10:55 PM
It gets better, the tracks pay them to do it in the form of rebates.

VigorsTheGrey
01-28-2018, 10:55 PM
Look at doubles with :3:and:9:going into the 9th, the :3:is higher with every horse except the winner which was the :5:.

This smells!!!

So what does that tell you...? The fact that 3/5 is lower than 9/5...? That SOMEBODY has made a group of 3/5 double wagers at a higher rate than the 3/9 wagers...that after looking at this the bots THEN BET the 3/5 even more...:confused:

VigorsTheGrey
01-28-2018, 10:58 PM
It gets better, the tracks pay them to do it in the form of rebates.

They prole WRITE-OFF the rebates as some form of gimmick advertising expense/ cost of doing business...huh...?

ultracapper
01-28-2018, 11:27 PM
Maybe AndyC can answer that. IRS minutia is not my forte.

iamt
01-28-2018, 11:36 PM
Why would the bot make the horse short in the exotics? That would imply handicapping. Sure, the bot could scan the will pays for race 8 while betting is going on for race 6, but how would it know there is an overlay in the P3 pool, how would it know where the subject horse should stand in the hierarchy of odds, unless it has given some type of handicapped value to the subject horse in advance? By scanning values during the betting of race 8, the bot just sees the pools are out of whack, and fixes them. No handicapping involved.

Your scenario would fit my example 2 more than bot involvement.


It depends on your definition of Bot. I took it to be an automated computer based wagering process. Not the idea of a single program looking at pricing mismatches.

ultracapper
01-28-2018, 11:47 PM
It depends on your definition of Bot. I took it to be an automated computer based wagering process. Not the idea of a single program looking at pricing mismatches.

You could be right. If so, if the bot is handicapping, it has as much chance of creating overlays as it does taking advantage of them.

As often as we see winning favorites get seriously hammered, we have to admit, there are those that don't win also. Can't remember the horse's name, but it was the 5th on Thursday at SA, :8:. Entered the gate at 9/2, crossed the line at 2/1. Problem was, 2 horses crossed it before he did. It was serious late money at those prices. A nice 6/1 TBaze directed mount got there best as could be.

VigorsTheGrey
01-29-2018, 12:00 AM
But if a horse is getting hammered, shouldn't the bot in effect get OFF the under priced favorite and on to something else...?

ultracapper
01-29-2018, 12:08 AM
I would think, when everything is taken into account, a bot could see a 7/5 horse and determine it should be Even. As far as it's concerned, it's 40% overlayed. Maybe some handicapping is going into that. I hope so. If there is a computer program that can make sense out of the chaos that is a horse race, it is buried deep in some hillside at the 60th parallel. These guys make their money off rebates, not winners. Sucking value gets them to the 95% winnings/$bet, and the rebate takes care of the profit. If they could mechanically pick winners with any regularity, these guys that bet 100s of millions a year would be winning even more hundreds of millions a year.

ultracapper
01-29-2018, 12:26 AM
It depends on your definition of Bot. I took it to be an automated computer based wagering process. Not the idea of a single program looking at pricing mismatches.

I guess, if anything, they're taking statistics into account as a "handicapping" process. Usually these kinds of operations come down to probabilities. I guess they could get into the exotics early, now that I think it through a little more.

Good god, they would be spreading all over. The race we are discussing had 90 possible DD combos going into the previous race. The P3 was probably in excess of 700 different probables going into the race 2 back. I would think you'd want to keep the human element out as much as possible.

Effin' mind blowing.

JustRalph
01-29-2018, 01:30 AM
This ainít ur daddyís game anymore

jay68802
01-29-2018, 02:23 AM
There are only 3 possible scenarios here.

1) The crowd makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, notices the discrepancy at post time, and corrects it. Likely hood........ damn near 0%

2) A bettor in the know or a handicapper that has "found a jewel" makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, and then capitalizes additionally on the overlay in the win pool with a $10K to $15K win bet, the amount necessary at SA to move a horse from 13-1 to 5-1 on a high handle Sunday afternoon.
Likely hood.............maybe, maybe, not impossible.

3) Combo of crowd and committed bettors throw this horse into their DDs and P3 combos as a "most likely alternative" to the main contenders, horse gets neglected in the win pool, bot picks up on it. Likely hood............better bet than the other two.

There is two other implications here:

1) These programs have access to information not available to the general public.

2) They have access to all pools and are betting or canceling after the race has started.

The horse we are talking about was ML 10-1 and ranked 7th in the morning line. But also had a good trainer and jockey combo, a bad ML for sure but not not off by much.

The other race to consider on this is the last race at Gulfstream on Sunday. The two favorites 8, and 9 both went up in odds after the gate opened. They were both the low Double, pick 3-5 favorites. The 9 reared and lost the rider and the 8 stayed close enough to watch the 9. Both have bad breaks and happen to go up in odds.

The late odds swings are common, but are too accurate, and often reflect the break. Meaning, of course, that a horse that breaks bad goes up, and horses that break in order, go down. Don't confuse a good break to mean that a horse gets the lead, it just means that there is not a noticeable problem with the break.

lamboguy
01-29-2018, 03:07 AM
i have been watching the gate punching now for the past 10 years, the funny thing is that these privileged guys today are not the greatest gate callers that i have ever seen. i have seen plenty of outside horses go from 8-1 to 12-1 out of the gate with a 3 length lead! sometimes these guys are calling the wrong horse!. when i use to call the break i never got it wrong because i memorized color of the caps on the outside horses. it also depends upon what angle the television feed is. most of the time it is a sideways feed, but in Maryland you get both the pan shot and the head on. the head on is great for canceling tickets.

jay68802
01-29-2018, 03:17 AM
i have been watching the gate punching now for the past 10 years, the funny thing is that these privileged guys today are not the greatest gate callers that i have ever seen. i have seen plenty of outside horses go from 8-1 to 12-1 out of the gate with a 3 length lead! sometimes these guys are calling the wrong horse!. when i use to call the break i never got it wrong because i memorized color of the caps on the outside horses. it also depends upon what angle the television feed is. most of the time it is a sideways feed, but in Maryland you get both the pan shot and the head on. the head on is great for canceling tickets.

Agree, try calling the break at 1 1/16 mile at Delta, or I think it is 7f at Tampa. But a mile or 6f at Gulfstream is pretty easy. Just depends on the track and camera view.

GMB@BP
01-29-2018, 10:11 AM
It gets better, the tracks pay them to do it in the form of rebates.

This is what I did not know until reading Betting with an Edge.

That Kee, SA, I assume NYRA does as well, rebate to certain players. I thought it was ADW's who used their margins to afford to rebate but I know now the tracks themselves actually have two different effective takeout rates on the races they offer depending on who you are.

Track Phantom
01-29-2018, 10:48 AM
Love this thread. You guys don't miss a beat.

I saw the action on #3 in the last at SA Sunday, too. I had this horse as my value play in that race and was shocked to see it higher than #9, who it had beaten head to head. In fact, if memory is correct, very close to post, #3 was 13-1 and #9 was 9-2.

The guy who posted the Daily Double will-pays is on to something. Every single will-pay to the 3 was paying out higher than it was to the 9, except with the winner of the 8th race. Think about that for a minute. Everything is in line perfectly except the winning payoff. No way this is coincidental.

Regarding the CPW situation, you're stuck with this forever. What track is going to "take a stand" against a bunch of money coming into their pools? This is the problem with parimutuel wagering. The track gets a cut of ALL money in their pools, not just legitimate, or fair, money. The track benefits from these computer programs. The track does not care about who wins the race, only that the pools are large and their cut is extracted. However, if the betting were fixed odds and the track was on the hook, so to speak, you'd be damn sure they would correct all of these CPW, late bets, past posting and other shaking things happening.

The bottom line for me is this, I don't believe in coincidence as it relates to wagering in large pools. I think money generally flows parallel in all pools. While there is an occasional anomaly, I think most of these situations are likely either outright nefarious (i.e. toteboard/pool manipulation, past posting) or borderline nefarious (i.e. inside information, CPW). The fact that the track neither sees this betting pattern as an issue nor would take any action to investigate it if they did see an issue is all the reason we should retire from the game.

I'm dead serious. Lack of integrity and oversight in the wagering pools would be the one thing that would bring this game to its knees.

lamboguy
01-29-2018, 12:10 PM
This is what I did not know until reading Betting with an Edge.

That Kee, SA, I assume NYRA does as well, rebate to certain players. I thought it was ADW's who used their margins to afford to rebate but I know now the tracks themselves actually have two different effective takeout rates on the races they offer depending on who you are.some of the computer players pay $40,000 for a consul to be hooked up directly into the tracks pools. those are the guys that are doing the game no good, the other computer groups are fine with me and there are plenty of them that aren't as big.

as far as i know, Oaklawn does not accept any batch players. Tampa does but they do not give any tote information that the regular public does not have as far as i know.

VigorsTheGrey
01-29-2018, 12:53 PM
The technology to post bets during the running of the race is already a reality at the exchange like BetFair has...all it would take is to apply those tools to non- exchange parimutuel pools...do the ADW-s send their batches in after the gates opens...?

ultracapper
01-29-2018, 09:01 PM
Love this thread. You guys don't miss a beat.

I saw the action on #3 in the last at SA Sunday, too. I had this horse as my value play in that race and was shocked to see it higher than #9, who it had beaten head to head. In fact, if memory is correct, very close to post, #3 was 13-1 and #9 was 9-2.

The guy who posted the Daily Double will-pays is on to something. Every single will-pay to the 3 was paying out higher than it was to the 9, except with the winner of the 8th race. Think about that for a minute. Everything is in line perfectly except the winning payoff. No way this is coincidental.

Regarding the CPW situation, you're stuck with this forever. What track is going to "take a stand" against a bunch of money coming into their pools? This is the problem with parimutuel wagering. The track gets a cut of ALL money in their pools, not just legitimate, or fair, money. The track benefits from these computer programs. The track does not care about who wins the race, only that the pools are large and their cut is extracted. However, if the betting were fixed odds and the track was on the hook, so to speak, you'd be damn sure they would correct all of these CPW, late bets, past posting and other shaking things happening.

The bottom line for me is this, I don't believe in coincidence as it relates to wagering in large pools. I think money generally flows parallel in all pools. While there is an occasional anomaly, I think most of these situations are likely either outright nefarious (i.e. toteboard/pool manipulation, past posting) or borderline nefarious (i.e. inside information, CPW). The fact that the track neither sees this betting pattern as an issue nor would take any action to investigate it if they did see an issue is all the reason we should retire from the game.

I'm dead serious. Lack of integrity and oversight in the wagering pools would be the one thing that would bring this game to its knees.

Maybe, maybe not. The inside horse went off at 8/1, and was shorter to 2 or 3 horses than the subject horse, at 5/1. If the winning combo would have been half what the 9/3 would have paid, then I'd be really wondering also, but the difference between the 2 is only about $30-$50 of DD bets.

Your last paragraph is dead on. I've been dedicated to this game for 30+ years, but the BS in this game just leaves me sick.

jay68802
01-29-2018, 10:33 PM
Manipulation


1. to manage or influence skillfully, especially in an unfair manner:

2. to adapt or change (accounts, figures, etc.) to suit one's purpose or advantage.

Most times as a horse player, when you here the words "pool manipulation", you think of a large bet being place and the canceled. Or you think of bets being placed on other horses to drive the odds on the betting target upwards.

Robotic wagering is nothing more than pool manipulation that is condoned by the ADW's, tracks and their management. Robots look for "value" in a pool or pools. Then wager amounts of money according to the values that have been pre-programmed into that computer. These wagers are for profit, and it does not matter if the profit comes from winning wagers or rebates.

What matters is the effect that these wagers have on the pool. If a Robot thinks that a horse should be 5-1 instead of 13-1 it will wager a amount that is going to bring the odds into line of what it is programmed to think. In the same situation if the computer thinks that a horse that is 5-1 and should be 13-1, it places bets on other horses that will drive the odds on that horse towards the 13-1. The computer is in effect, controlling the odds of the pool or pool's, and is doing this for profit. It does not matter which way the odds go because, by doing this, it is doing the exact definition of manipulation, changing figures to suit one's purpose or advantage.

ADW's and the tracks that accept these wagers are, in fact, also part of the pool manipulation. By allowing these computers access to the pools in any other way that is different than the general public, they are condoning pool manipulation, and are doing it to suit their purpose, profit from the handle.

This can be accomplished very simply, continue to show the odds, probables, and will pays as it is done right now, but eliminate the pool totals until the race
is off. By eliminating pool totals you have eliminated the robots one advantage, and that is its ability to manipulate the pool.

fiznow
01-30-2018, 05:57 AM
Yes it shouldn't be too hard to find the accounts of these whales at Twinspires, Xpressbet or wherever they wager and to close them.

PaceAdvantage
02-02-2018, 01:49 PM
Really...this IS true isn't it...? Has racing really come to this...?

Automated betting programs that use arbitrage programs to find and "recover" the net value in a race no matter who wins...No wonder wagering is going down the tubes for the little guys...SUCKS BIG TIME. BAN THEM.Adapt or die.

Why curse someone who has found a way to use today's technology to possibly profit on racing? Isn't that what MOST OF US try and do?

I will never understand the vitriol that gets thrown at these computer players.

You could do what they're doing...but you either need to write your own software to do it, or hire someone...good luck.

PaceAdvantage
02-02-2018, 01:51 PM
This stinks to high heaven...! These sharpies are linked into will-pay tables using programs that look for patterns and overlays and execute thousands of wagers in nano-seconds..

....obviously that is an edge that is being exploited using high-technology that the rest of us just don't have...

...if this means that the majority of winnings are returned to a small subset of high-tech CRW operators at the expense of higher take-out rates for all of us, then that is just plain NASTY...

...even if you think it is just an intelligent way to make money....it just doesn't seem right...just feels like a pool skimming operation, in essence...IMHO.You don't have access to will-pays? Sure you do.

You're just incapable of writing the software capable of reading and analyzing these things. And because of this, you want to take away their edge?

It would be like complaining against someone who had a better set of speed figures than you do...demanding they either release their figures to the public or be banned from using them...:lol:

GMB@BP
02-02-2018, 01:52 PM
Adapt or die.

Why curse someone who has found a way to use today's technology to possibly profit on racing? Isn't that what MOST OF US try and do?

I will never understand the vitriol that gets thrown at these computer players.

You could do what they're doing...but you either need to write your own software to do it, or hire someone...good luck.

Racing has been doing really well with the adapting...I predict big things for its future.

PaceAdvantage
02-02-2018, 01:54 PM
Racing has been doing really well with the adapting...I predict big things for its future.I was talking about the player adapting.

GMB@BP
02-02-2018, 02:02 PM
I was talking about the player adapting.

They player does not adapt when they see the system as unfair or broken, they leave.

PaceAdvantage
02-02-2018, 02:08 PM
They player does not adapt when they see the system as unfair or broken, they leave.What's unfair about someone having an edge? That's the whole purpose of the game...to get an edge other people do not have.

They aren't doing anything illegal...they have computer programs that analyze pool data and bet accordingly.

I wrote software about 10 years ago that would do the same (although on a much more rudimentary level). It scraped pool data off the web and made bets automatically.

Should I be in jail?

Jeez...

GMB@BP
02-02-2018, 02:24 PM
What's unfair about someone having an edge? That's the whole purpose of the game...to get an edge other people do not have.

They aren't doing anything illegal...they have computer programs that analyze pool data and bet accordingly.

I wrote software about 10 years ago that would do the same (although on a much more rudimentary level). It scraped pool data off the web and made bets automatically.

Should I be in jail?

Jeez...

So if I walk into the OTB down the street, how exactly do I complete with these players. Not everyone has access to this computer batch betting, yet were betting into the same pools, thus an unfair advantage is created.

PaceAdvantage
02-02-2018, 02:31 PM
So if I walk into the OTB down the street, how exactly do I complete with these players. Not everyone has access to this computer batch betting, yet were betting into the same pools, thus an unfair advantage is created.Not everyone has access to private pace and speed numbers that are superior to the publicly available ones...how do you compete with that?

I don't understand the reasoning here, and I never have, as this debate has been going on for quite a while.

GMB@BP
02-02-2018, 02:35 PM
Not everyone has access to private pace and speed numbers that are superior to the publicly available ones...how do you compete with that?

I don't understand the reasoning here, and I never have, as this debate has been going on for quite a while.

Everyone can either purchase or calculate their own pace and speed figures, its readily available data.

The big issue is that some people do not have access to the ability to make these bets yet have to live with the payouts that others do, patently unfair. If the pools were separate then you have a valid argument.

I dont even see a comparison between speed figures and a computer batch betting program.

And all that is beyond if this is good for the overall health of the sport, which its not.

PaceAdvantage
02-02-2018, 02:42 PM
Everyone can either purchase or calculate their own pace and speed figures, its readily available data.

The big issue is that some people do not have access to the ability to make these bets yet have to live with the payouts that others do, patently unfair. If the pools were separate then you have a valid argument.

I dont even see a comparison between speed figures and a computer batch betting program.

And all that is beyond if this is good for the overall health of the sport, which its not.Their edge is being able to analyze the pools.

If *I* am able to write a program that automatically bets for me after analyzing pool data, then IT'S NOT THAT IMPOSSIBLE.

Sure, these guys are doing it on a much more advanced level, but it's still basically the same thing.

I DID IT.

That means it's not so impossible to acquire...

The HARD PART is writing a program that actually is able to make a profit. The hard part IS NOT writing a program that reads data and makes bets.

That's the EASY part.

Their edge isn't being able to bet at the last second. Anyone can do that.

JustRalph
02-02-2018, 05:37 PM
Racing has been doing really well with the adapting...I predict big things for its future.

I get the feeling those big players are the only reason the game is still here.

Think Star Wars. That big ass ship floating through space with 500 little fighters shooting at each other while the big ship just keeps slowly lumbering across the screen.

Guess which one you are........

ultracapper
02-02-2018, 11:24 PM
Their edge is being able to analyze the pools.

If *I* am able to write a program that automatically bets for me after analyzing pool data, then IT'S NOT THAT IMPOSSIBLE.

Sure, these guys are doing it on a much more advanced level, but it's still basically the same thing.

I DID IT.

That means it's not so impossible to acquire...

The HARD PART is writing a program that actually is able to make a profit. The hard part IS NOT writing a program that reads data and makes bets.

That's the EASY part.

Their edge isn't being able to bet at the last second. Anyone can do that.

These guys are making numerous bets at the last minute. They're not standing at a SAM punching in tickets. They have access to pool info that isn't available to the public. They can see the will pays to the horses in the 8th race in the P3 pool while betting is going on in the 6th race. Sorry boss. This is HORSESHIT.

PaceAdvantage
02-03-2018, 02:42 AM
These guys are making numerous bets at the last minute. They're not standing at a SAM punching in tickets. They have access to pool info that isn't available to the public. They can see the will pays to the horses in the 8th race in the P3 pool while betting is going on in the 6th race. Sorry boss. This is HORSESHIT.Tons of ADWs let you batch bet at the last minute. This isn't something weird that NOBODY can do except a select few.

That's for starters. You can write your own program to submit tons of bets near the end if you have the right ADW.

As for access to pool info that isn't available to the public, I call BS on that.

GMB@BP
02-03-2018, 09:45 AM
I get the feeling those big players are the only reason the game is still here.

Think Star Wars. That big ass ship floating through space with 500 little fighters shooting at each other while the big ship just keeps slowly lumbering across the screen.

Guess which one you are........

Oh I totally get which one I am....but my story is one that should highlight how racing did its best to eliminate a player like me from being interested in betting the sport.

thaskalos
02-03-2018, 09:54 AM
Oh I totally get which one I am....but my story is one that should highlight how racing did its best to eliminate a player like me from being interested in betting the sport.

And yet, you persist in this game...and so do I. The horseracing industry is betting that we won't voluntarily give up this game...even if we are greatly "inconvenienced" while playing it. And, to a large degree...the industry is right.

GMB@BP
02-03-2018, 09:57 AM
And yet, you persist in this game...and so do I. The horseracing industry is betting that we won't voluntarily give up this game...even if we are greatly "inconvenienced" while playing it. And, to a large degree...the industry is right.

I have friends in the game, if I didnt I am not so sure.

Either way when I was 26 (16 years ago) I put 500k through the windows, last year I was around 20k.

thaskalos
02-03-2018, 10:11 AM
I have friends in the game, if I didnt I am not so sure.

Either way when I was 26 (16 years ago) I put 500k through the windows, last year I was around 20k.

When a horseplayer gives up the game, or greatly reduces his betting over time...the industry doesn't interpret this as if the player made a rational decision to do so because he became "disgruntled" with the way the game has devolved. To the industry, the horseplayer who stops betting either DIED...or he went broke. In either case, this player is no longer of any use to the track...so the track no longer bothers with him. So...the track now looks for some new way by which they could attract a new group of "live ones"...to replace the ones who "died, or went broke". That's how the rebates and the Whales were created...IMO.

AskinHaskin
02-03-2018, 11:57 AM
What's unfair about someone having an edge? That's the whole purpose of the game...to get an edge other people do not have.




Well what's wrong with sponging... or using ping-pong balls then?


Hell, why limit yourself?


Race fixing? Sure, great!


Buzzers? Bring'em on! They must be great for the sport...



The problem with it all, from the perspective of those running horse racing, is that all of it maintains the lethal lack of parity in the mutuel pools.


It is rather amusing, though, to read this thread and observe those who are the problem being deeply intimidated by a self-perceived bigger problem which threatens their own edge.

That while they continue to have zero concept of what they themselves have been doing to bury horse racing for decades now.


It is as simple as the following:


The guy who walks in off the street, having never been to a horse race before, wants reason to feel that he has just as much hope/chance as does anyone.

He feels that when he purchases a lotto ticket. He feels that when he plays Keno at some local restaurant. He feels that when he plays roulette.


He can tell immediately that he is at a great disadvantage when he arrives at the track and he never returns as a result.

That's it. It is that simple.



So, still again, the correct reaction to such a simple equation is to do everything in the industry's power to greatly improve the chances of the newcomer, from day one, so that he will stay in the game.


When seeking optimum parity in racing's parimutuel pools, we'll get around to you guys getting cleaned-out by robotic wagering entities many years from now, only after we have greatly offset your own disastrous effect on today's newcomers.


Just look around at wagering menus at today's tracks and see if you can blame robotic wagering for those disasters.


Racing has been burying itself for decades, so why attempt to stand in its way?

PaceAdvantage
02-03-2018, 12:03 PM
Well what's wrong with sponging... or using ping-pong balls then?


Hell, why limit yourself?


Race fixing? Sure, great!


Buzzers? Bring'em on! They must be great for the sport...



The problem with it all, from the perspective of those running horse racing, is that all of it maintains the lethal lack of parity in the mutuel pools.


It is rather amusing, though, to read this thread and observe those who are the problem being deeply intimidated by a self-perceived bigger problem which threatens their own edge.

That while they continue to have zero concept of what they themselves have been doing to bury horse racing for decades now.


It is as simple as the following:


The guy who walks in off the street, having never been to a horse race before, wants reason to feel that he has just as much hope/chance as does anyone.

He feels that when he purchases a lotto ticket. He feels that when he plays Keno at some local restaurant. He feels that when he plays roulette.


He can tell immediately that he is at a great disadvantage when he arrives at the track and he never returns as a result.

That's it. It is that simple.



So, still again, the correct reaction to such a simple equation is to do everything in the industry's power to greatly improve the chances of the newcomer, from day one, so that he will stay in the game.


When seeking optimum parity in racing's parimutuel pools, we'll get around to you guys getting cleaned-out by robotic wagering entities many years from now, only after we have greatly offset your own disastrous effect on today's newcomers.


Just look around at wagering menus at today's tracks and see if you can blame robotic wagering for those disasters.


Racing has been burying itself for decades, so why attempt to stand in its way?Screw parity and screw the newbie. There's nothing stopping a newbie from going to the track, picking up a program, and doping out a winner just like everyone else.

This game is about finding a long term EDGE. From the player's perspective, it has always been that way and always WILL be that way.

Listing things that are clearly ILLEGAL and trying to equate them to betting activity and handicapping edges that are clearly NOT illegal is the height of ignorance.

Maybe we should go back to horse and buggies too so the Amish are on equal ground to the rest of the country? Those poor newbies...

This might be the dumbest post you've ever made, and that's saying something.

Every newbie at the track I've ever known (including me), went in there thinking that exact same thing...when we won, we thought "WOW, how long has THIS been going on."

Then we got our clocks cleaned (and wow, there WEREN'T ANY REBATES BACK THEN, OR COMPUTER ROBOTIC WAGERING, or whatever the latest complaint is).

When you get your clock cleaned as a newbie, that's the crossroads. You either leave the game, or you become an even bigger fan and set out to IMPROVE YOUR GAME, because UNLIKE THE LOTTERY, you CAN IMPROVE YOUR GAME.

Thank me very much.

Andy Asaro
02-03-2018, 12:08 PM
Screw parity and screw the newbie.

This game is about finding an EDGE. From the player's perspective, it has always been that way and always WILL be that way.

Listing things that are clearly ILLEGAL and trying to equate them to betting activity and handicapping edges that are clearly NOT illegal is the height of ignorance.

Maybe we should go back to horse and buggies too so the Amish are on equal ground to the rest of the country? Those poor newbies...

This might be the dumbest post you've ever made, and that's saying something.

Screw parity and screw the newbie???? How is the game supposed to grow? Having an information edge is one thing but having a skill edge, a bankroll edge, a massive rebate edge, and a personal tote edge kinda goes against the spirit of parimutuel wagering. Skill and luck are supposed to determine the winners. There should be one takeout rate for everyone. Having said that I don't blame anyone who gets them but I do take issue with the opinion that those getting them are entitled to them.

PaceAdvantage
02-03-2018, 12:11 PM
I know that line needed more explanation, so I edited it while you were replying.

Andy Asaro
02-03-2018, 12:14 PM
I know that line needed more explanation, so I edited it while you were replying.

It's cool. You can delete my bolded quote.

The way wagering is being conducted must change for the game to grow. The people getting the big rebates have always said that they would like one lower takeout rate for all yet most of them openly defend the status quo IMO.

thaskalos
02-03-2018, 12:15 PM
Well what's wrong with sponging... or using ping-pong balls then?


Hell, why limit yourself?


Race fixing? Sure, great!


Buzzers? Bring'em on! They must be great for the sport...



The problem with it all, from the perspective of those running horse racing, is that all of it maintains the lethal lack of parity in the mutuel pools.


It is rather amusing, though, to read this thread and observe those who are the problem being deeply intimidated by a self-perceived bigger problem which threatens their own edge.

That while they continue to have zero concept of what they themselves have been doing to bury horse racing for decades now.


It is as simple as the following:


The guy who walks in off the street, having never been to a horse race before, wants reason to feel that he has just as much hope/chance as does anyone.

He feels that when he purchases a lotto ticket. He feels that when he plays Keno at some local restaurant. He feels that when he plays roulette.


He can tell immediately that he is at a great disadvantage when he arrives at the track and he never returns as a result.

That's it. It is that simple.



So, still again, the correct reaction to such a simple equation is to do everything in the industry's power to greatly improve the chances of the newcomer, from day one, so that he will stay in the game.


When seeking optimum parity in racing's parimutuel pools, we'll get around to you guys getting cleaned-out by robotic wagering entities many years from now, only after we have greatly offset your own disastrous effect on today's newcomers.


Just look around at wagering menus at today's tracks and see if you can blame robotic wagering for those disasters.


Racing has been burying itself for decades, so why attempt to stand in its way?

You've said this many times...but you've never specified what exactly WE have done...to make this game so "inhospitable" for these "newcomers"...who are just DYING to get in this game?

PaceAdvantage
02-03-2018, 12:15 PM
Screw parity and screw the newbie???? How is the game supposed to grow? Having an information edge is one thing but having a skill edge, a bankroll edge, a massive rebate edge, and a personal tote edge kinda goes against the spirit of parimutuel wagering. Skill and luck are supposed to determine the winners. There should be one takeout rate for everyone. Having said that I don't blame anyone who gets them but I do take issue with the opinion that those getting them are entitled to them.ENTITLED? Nobody's entitled.

Do you think these CRW's were just handed the technology to make it work? The software just magically appeared after they decided to go CRW?

No. Not quite.

SKILL EDGE and BANKROLL EDGE have ALWAYS been around.

REBATES? They are a part of a game and until they're not, you either have to find a way to get some (and most anyone can these days). As for "personal tote edge," I don't even know what that means anymore. If you're another one talking about these guys having access to pool data nobody else has access too, I've yet to see or hear of conclusive proof on that one.

Andy Asaro
02-03-2018, 12:16 PM
You've said this many times...but you've never specified what exactly WE have done...to make this game so "inhospitable" for these "newcomers"...who are just DYING to get in this game?

He's painting everyone with a broad brush thinking he knows all of us.

thaskalos
02-03-2018, 12:19 PM
Give the "Whale" all the rebates that he wants...but have him enter his bets one at a time, like the rest of us do. And if he still insists to place his wagers at the last second, then...more power to him. :ThmbUp:

PaceAdvantage
02-03-2018, 12:19 PM
Back in the days of Ruffian, track management was wringing its hands worried about attracting more newbies...more young people...exactly as it is today, forty+ years later...

There were no rebates back then...no simulcasting even...certainly no CRWs...no possible access to mysterious pool data nobody else has....

Wonder how far back Haskin must travel in time to think about these salad days he wants to return us to, despite ourselves and our ruinous ways...

PaceAdvantage
02-03-2018, 12:21 PM
Give the "Whale" all the rebates that he wants...but have him enter his bets one at a time, like the rest of us do. And if he still insists to place his wagers at the last second, then...more power to him. :ThmbUp:More than a few of the ADWs I've opened accounts with in the last 5-10 years has some sort of batch-upload/betting function, where you can place a ton of wagers insanely faster than you could ever enter them by hand.

You don't have access to ADWs? The newbies don't either?

GMB@BP
02-03-2018, 12:21 PM
Any pari mutual game that offers two different effective takeout rates is not a game I would ever endorse getting into, unless you have the capital to be the one getting the lower rate.

This game is so unattractive to newer players that it takes about a week for someone new to figure it out and run the other way.

But what the sport is doing is working for them, I suppose, or they wouldnt keep on doing it, right?

thaskalos
02-03-2018, 12:25 PM
ENTITLED? Nobody's entitled.

Do you think these CRW's were just handed the technology to make it work? The software just magically appeared after they decided to go CRW?

No. Not quite.

SKILL EDGE and BANKROLL EDGE have ALWAYS been around.

REBATES? They are a part of a game and until they're not, you either have to find a way to get some (and most anyone can these days). As for "personal tote edge," I don't even know what that means anymore. If you're another one talking about these guys having access to pool data nobody else has access too, I've yet to see or hear of conclusive proof on that one.

Are you allowed to batch 500 different wagers...and place them all at the touch of a button, at the last second of the wagering period? If the "Whale" has such a privilege...then why shouldn't WE? Every time I try to place my bet at the last second, my bet is refused...while the horses stay in the gate for another 5+ seconds.

Andy Asaro
02-03-2018, 12:28 PM
ENTITLED? Nobody's entitled.

Do you think these CRW's were just handed the technology to make it work? The software just magically appeared after they decided to go CRW?

No. Not quite.

SKILL EDGE and BANKROLL EDGE have ALWAYS been around.

REBATES? They are a part of a game and until they're not, you either have to find a way to get some (and most anyone can these days). As for "personal tote edge," I don't even know what that means anymore. If you're another one talking about these guys having access to pool data nobody else has access too, I've yet to see or hear of conclusive proof on that one.

Of course they have a personal tote with pool data given to them by the various ADW's if they bet enough. And by bet enough I mean a lot more than a million in churn. That's a fact.

PaceAdvantage
02-03-2018, 12:28 PM
Are you allowed to batch 500 different wagers...and place them all at the touch of a button, at the last second of the wagering period? If the "Whale" has such a privilege...then why shouldn't WE? Every time I try to place my bet at the last second, my bet is refused...while the horses stay in the gate for another 5+ seconds.Hey, maybe you're right. Maybe these CRWs have some sort of secret setup with every track they place a wager with, and it goes something like this:

Their Acme2000 CRW software is somehow able to intercept the stewards pressing the "betting closed" button right before the race goes off, and then is able to upload all of its bets in front of the signal...because that's basically what has to happen for your scenario to be true. Do you think that's what is happening?

Or maybe the stewards are linked up via text message and won't close the wagering until they get the AOK from all the CRW teams?

What exactly do you think is happening that these guys are supposedly getting their bets in when you can't?

PaceAdvantage
02-03-2018, 12:31 PM
Of course they have a personal tote with pool data given to them by the various ADW's if they bet enough. And by bet enough I mean a lot more than a million in churn. That's a fact.I have a personal tote with every single ADW I belong to. So do you. Tells me nothing when you use that incendiary language. I can also use all sorts of PERSONAL TOOLS I have written ON MY OWN to analyze the pool data that nobody else has. Should that be taken away from me? I didn't get those tools from the ADW.

And what is this secret pool data that they are holding back for their best clients? There are more than a few guys on here who have owned or have worked in upper levels of ADWs that could confirm or deny such a thing to me in private.

That has yet to happen.

Andy Asaro
02-03-2018, 12:33 PM
I have a personal tote with every single ADW I belong to. So do you. Tells me nothing when you use that incendiary language.

And what is this secret pool data that they are holding back for their best clients? There are more than a few guys on here who have owned or have worked in upper levels of ADWs that could confirm or deny such a thing to me in private.

That has yet to happen.

What incendiary language? I don't know what to tell you as far as not knowing about people being given a personal tote (yes, someone here should be able to explain it better than me.

PaceAdvantage
02-03-2018, 12:34 PM
What incendiary language? I don't know what to tell you as far as not knowing about people being given a personal tote (yes, someone here should be able to explain it better than me.The whole sentence is incendiary...trying to tell us that there is all this super-secret stuff that these guys are getting from ADWs that hardly anybody else has access to...the use of the term "Personal Tote" especially.

I've had a "Personal Tote" since the days of sitting at the Aqueduct restaurant using a TINY TIM machine...

Andy Asaro
02-03-2018, 12:36 PM
The whole sentence is incendiary...trying to tell us that there is all this super-secret stuff that these guys are getting from ADWs that hardly anybody else has access to...

It's not super secret. It's an edge that most of us don't have access to.

PaceAdvantage
02-03-2018, 12:39 PM
Why don't these ADWs forego all this silly nonsense and just tell these guys who is going to win the race before it goes off...they must be that good from what you're saying.

thaskalos
02-03-2018, 12:43 PM
Hey, maybe you're right. Maybe these CRWs have some sort of secret setup with every track they place a wager with, and it goes something like this:

Their Acme2000 CRW software is somehow able to intercept the stewards pressing the "betting closed" button right before the race goes off, and then is able to upload all of its bets in front of the signal...because that's basically what has to happen for your scenario to be true. Do you think that's what is happening?

Or maybe the stewards are linked up via text message and won't close the wagering until they get the AOK from all the CRW teams?

What exactly do you think is happening that these guys are supposedly getting their bets in when you can't?

I think the Whales have the sort of "access" to all the exotics pools that allows their betting software to find wagering "anomalies"...while I have to place most of my exotics wagers "blind". And I also think that these Whales are able to cancel bets after the race starts. Do you have concrete proof that can put these concerns of mine at ease?

Andy Asaro
02-03-2018, 12:44 PM
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/archive/2015/11/17/computer-robotic-wagering-crw-by-frank-angst.aspx

Excerpt:

The instantaneous knowledge of probable payouts, ability to wager thousands of different combinations, and the capability to make those bets just a few seconds before the race when odds have settled, provide CRW players unfair advantages over other bettors. Even if that ďhumanĒ bettor could instantly discover pool value, speech limitations and relatively slow fingertips would prevent punching in thousands of wagers to take full advantage of that insight.

This setup is especially damaging in converting new players into regular players. Even if new players donít fully understand what is happening when they bet races, they soon recognize there are few instances where the winning payout is better than expected. The chance of finding that type of payoutóan overlayóis race wageringís real attraction, one of its few advantages over casino games. CRW players have helped reduce instances of such overlays, weakening the betting product for everyone else.

==============================================

Not saying I agree with everything in the article but I do agree with most of it. It's a year or two old.

thaskalos
02-03-2018, 12:45 PM
Why don't these ADWs forego all this silly nonsense and just tell these guys who is going to win the race before it goes off...they must be that good from what you're saying.

What kind of bullshit is this? If you can't hold a serious discussion about an issue, then why don't you stay out of it...and go back to your "Trump-talk" at the off-topics?

GMB@BP
02-03-2018, 12:48 PM
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/archive/2015/11/17/computer-robotic-wagering-crw-by-frank-angst.aspx

Excerpt:

The instantaneous knowledge of probable payouts, ability to wager thousands of different combinations, and the capability to make those bets just a few seconds before the race when odds have settled, provide CRW players unfair advantages over other bettors. Even if that ďhumanĒ bettor could instantly discover pool value, speech limitations and relatively slow fingertips would prevent punching in thousands of wagers to take full advantage of that insight.

This setup is especially damaging in converting new players into regular players. Even if new players donít fully understand what is happening when they bet races, they soon recognize there are few instances where the winning payout is better than expected. The chance of finding that type of payoutóan overlayóis race wageringís real attraction, one of its few advantages over casino games. CRW players have helped reduce instances of such overlays, weakening the betting product for everyone else.

==============================================

Not saying I agree with everything in the article but I do agree with most of it. It's a year or two old.

had not read that, thanks.

PaceAdvantage
02-03-2018, 12:53 PM
I think the Whales have the sort of "access" to all the exotics pools that allows their betting software to find wagering "anomalies"...while I have to place most of my exotics wagers "blind". And I also think that these Whales are able to cancel bets after the race starts. Do you have concrete proof that can put these concerns of mine at ease?Let's just ignore the fact that you didn't address the point of my reply, which was addressing what you wrote about not being able to get your bet in before the race goes off while these CRWs can get hundreds if not thousands of bets in while you sit there looking at the RACE CLOSED message.

I have about as much proof to my end of the argument as you do yours. But the burden would be on you to prove a positive...not me to prove a negative. It's kind of impossible to prove a negative anyway...

Maybe the CRWs do have access to pick3, pick4, pick5 will-pays during the first leg...maybe they do have access to all trifecta combo payouts...I have yet to hear of conclusive proof of this, but maybe they do. I'm a pretty good conspiracy type of guy, so I have an open mind and am willing to believe this kind of thing.

Let me ask a stupid question though...in order for an ADW to provide PickX will-pays during the first leg, don't they HAVE to first get this pool data from the TRACKS? And given the antiquity of most tracks out there, and given some of the highest rebate tracks also tend to be the most antiquated, do you think the tracks THEMSELVES have the ability to see this kind of data with their outdated setups? Like I said, could be a stupid question, but could also be an important one.

ADWs only have the data they have from the host tracks themselves.

PaceAdvantage
02-03-2018, 12:57 PM
What kind of bullshit is this? If you can't hold a serious discussion about an issue, then why don't you stay out of it...and go back to your "Trump-talk" at the off-topics?Wow...salty man...don't go all loser on me now. We're just getting started. I'll forget I read that and await a proper apology.

No bullshit about any of it. I'm simply making a point that you guys are all making ADWs out to be these purveyors of all this insider super-secret winning info...

gabe
02-03-2018, 01:00 PM
I was at SANTA ANITA in a box seat watching these odds closely.

The (3) was getting bet via doubles and pick 3s. The horse wasn't getting bet at track as much as at OTBs and that money comes in last second. The 3 looked great in the form and the 12-1 ML was a joke.

PaceAdvantage
02-03-2018, 01:03 PM
I invite Todd Bowker, Ian Myers, Dave Schwartz, or anyone else who has worked with CRW teams or within the upper levels of ADWs to confirm or deny to me privately what is being discussed here...and I will report back what they have said (anonymously of course). Like I said, there are more than a few folks on here who have worked in and with the industry being discussed and who would know the straight dope....or they can do it publicly if they wish...

PaceAdvantage
02-03-2018, 01:07 PM
The instantaneous knowledge of probable payouts, ability to wager thousands of different combinations, and the capability to make those bets just a few seconds before the race when odds have settled, provide CRW players unfair advantages over other bettors.I can do two of these three things right now with more than one of the ADWs I belong to. Really THREE OF THREE depending on what probable payouts you are talking about. And so can you.

But please define "just a few seconds before the race 'when odds have settled'"

Just what the heck does that mean? How does anyone know EXACTLY when a race is about to go off, WHILE LEAVING ENOUGH TIME for the transmission and processing of thousands of different combinations?

gabe
02-03-2018, 01:10 PM
Odds go crazy when the ADW and OTB money comes in.

thaskalos
02-03-2018, 01:14 PM
I invite Todd Bowker, Ian Myers, Dave Schwartz, or anyone else who has worked with CRW teams or within the upper levels of ADWs to confirm or deny to me privately what is being discussed here...and I will report back what they have said (anonymously of course). Like I said, there are more than a few folks on here who have worked in and with the industry being discussed and who would know the straight dope....or they can do it publicly if they wish...

Dave Schwartz has stated repeatedly that the "Whales" attack every conceivable wagering pool at every racetrack...with the intent of doing as much as they can to suck-out the betting value of every bet combination that they can get their hands on. Can this be accomplished without having updated access to the will-pays of all the wagering pools? Do you suppose that these Whales are as "blind" as WE are....when they bet their millions?

lamboguy
02-03-2018, 01:14 PM
the computer teams don't get into the pools when it says pool closed. some have consul's that have access to exotic pools that most don't have. i don't think there are a total of 10 that do have that access. if you take away those 10 people the pools would be down a whole chunk, maybe something like 25%.

the question should be if they got rid of those guys could they make up the deficit from what they lost or come close from the people that will come back to the game.

as far as after the bell betting goes, i have no proof, but i am pretty sure its going on now, but don't have a clue where it is actually done.

Andy Asaro
02-03-2018, 01:15 PM
I invite Todd Bowker, Ian Myers, Dave Schwartz, or anyone else who has worked with CRW teams or within the upper levels of ADWs to confirm or deny to me privately what is being discussed here...and I will report back what they have said (anonymously of course). Like I said, there are more than a few folks on here who have worked in and with the industry being discussed and who would know the straight dope....or they can do it publicly if they wish...

Ian will probably come over from twitter and explain it. He's a straight shooter.

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/status/959852446611746816

GMB@BP
02-03-2018, 01:15 PM
this thread is just another one that tells me to stick to contests where there is less bull shit to deal with.

Andy Asaro
02-03-2018, 01:17 PM
this thread is just another one that tells me to stick to contests where there is less bull shit to deal with.

:lol:

Every pool in every race is supposed to be a contest in theory.

PaceAdvantage
02-03-2018, 01:22 PM
Dave Schwartz has stated repeatedly that the "Whales" attack every conceivable wagering pool at every racetrack...with the intent of doing as much as they can to suck-out the betting value of every bet combination that they can get their hands on. Can this be accomplished without having updated access to the will-pays of all the wagering pools? Do you supposed that these Whales are as "blind" as WE are....when they bet their millions?And I don't dispute any of what Dave said. I'm sure they do attack every pool at every racetrack they deem worthy to play.

So they must have will-pay info during the first leg of the PICK_X wagers, that is what you're saying, correct?

Could they do similar without this info on PICK_X wagers? Sure they could.

The core of their ability lies at having software that can analyze all the different pool info (even if it is just the pool info YOU AND I have access to). I go back 10 years ago when I was doing this myself...with only my homegrown software and my ADW account.

No, I wasn't doing it like they are doing it...they just took the concept and made it much grander in scope.

It's not an impossible thing to do if you have the programming knowledge and the math background.

Smarter, more resourceful people than you or I tend to be more successful at this game. Should we punish them for this, even if they have access to the same data you and I have? I know it is your belief they have access to data we do not...let's establish that as fact first before we move forward.

Andy Asaro
02-03-2018, 01:24 PM
And just to add some spice to the thread (as if it needed anymore) I firmly believe that some are able to cancel wagers withing one or two seconds of the gate opening. Especially on need the lead types who don't break well.

GMB@BP
02-03-2018, 01:31 PM
And just to add some spice to the thread (as if it needed anymore) I firmly believe that some are able to cancel wagers withing one or two seconds of the gate opening. Especially on need the lead types who don't break well.

yea, to many people have confirmed this, I assume this happens by mistake, but if these CRW players had access to cancel in the seconds after the start....

I assume they could have a secondary cancel CRW submittal loaded and just hit execute that cancels all combos where a poor start for a favored front runner occurs?

thaskalos
02-03-2018, 01:41 PM
And I don't dispute any of what Dave said. I'm sure they do attack every pool at every racetrack they deem worthy to play.

So they must have will-pay info during the first leg of the PICK_X wagers, that is what you're saying, correct?

Could they do similar without this info on PICK_X wagers? Sure they could.

The core of their ability lies at having software that can analyze all the different pool info (even if it is just the pool info YOU AND I have access to). I go back 10 years ago when I was doing this myself...with only my homegrown software and my ADW account.

No, I wasn't doing it like they are doing it...they just took the concept and made it much grander in scope.

It's not an impossible thing to do if you have the programming knowledge and the math background.

Smarter, more resourceful people than you or I tend to be more successful at this game. Should we punish them for this, even if they have access to the same data you and I have? I know it is your belief they have access to data we do not...let's establish that as fact first before we move forward.

Yes...I believe that these Whales have access that is denied to the rest of us. If you are more "skilled", or have "better software" than I have...then I have no bone to pick with you. I can't even complain if your betting-volume secures for you the sort of discounts(rebates) that are unavailable to me. In such a case...you have secured for yourself the sort of "advantage" that I too can avail myself to...if I become as "dedicated" to the game as you are.

But if you have a "clandestine" agreement with a betting outfit, which allows you "special" access to the wagering pools, or allows you to cancel wagers after the race starts...then I will scream "bloody murder"...because now there is outright CHEATING going on...at the expense of the unsuspecting player who is kept in the dark about such things.

lamboguy
02-03-2018, 02:33 PM
yea, to many people have confirmed this, I assume this happens by mistake, but if these CRW players had access to cancel in the seconds after the start....

I assume they could have a secondary cancel CRW submittal loaded and just hit execute that cancels all combos where a poor start for a favored front runner occurs?there is one 1 problem with your theory on the CRW, they have to have a television set that shows the race in real time. i doubt they have it, but could be wrong.

Ian Meyers
02-03-2018, 02:39 PM
OK, I feel like I have to do this every couple of months now. I guess there are a few that don’t remember or never read my replies because the same stuff keeps coming up again and again re CAW teams.


1. CAW teams are no better than their handicapping algorithms. I’ve read nonsense on this board as well as many others than they have an advantage because they can win even if they lose. Yeah, as long as their percentage loss is less than their rebate rate. Guess what, that’s true for all rebate players. If you’re not playing with a rebate (other than guys in a handful of states than have onerous source market fees), that’s on you. I can name a bunch of reputable ADWs that offer rebates including the one I started, BetPTC. I know a number of non-CAW players that make money because they lose at a rate lower than the rebates they receive.

2. There is no secret tote that CAW teams have access to that show ‘hidden’ will-pays. There’s not enough bandwidth available throughout the tote system to provide this even if someone wanted to. Remember, they need information on every combo bet on every guest site as well. Even if that COULD be made available it would be virtually useless because liquidity is so low at most tracks and such a large percentage of handle comes in in the final flash that information would be useless. Without giving away the secret sauce CAW teams PROJECT what the final dividend will be based upon historical data, current money in the pool, ML odds, exacta odds, etc. The best teams have the best dividend projection models. Accurate dividend projections are very, very hard to make.

3. CAW teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models and will labor for YEARS spending money collecting and analyzing data before they make even one bet. I’m not going to call out anyone specifically but there are guys on this board and others like it (including Twitter) that bitch if they have to pay for PPs and you believe that you’re going to be on a level playing field with guys that spend $50,000+ a year on back data? Last year alone I made $75,000 of data purchases on behalf of U.S. & International CAW clients.

4. I’m not trying to sound harsh; the guys that make up CAW teams are a lot smarter than you are. They’re a lot smarter than I am too and I’m a well-educated guy. These guys are rocket scientists, literally. One guy I know on a start-up team I’m working with has a dual PHD in Nuclear Physics and Aeronautical Engineering. Don’t you think that is some kind of advantage when you’re working with numerical data? Dave Schwartz is a brilliant guy, smarter than I am and has worked with teams in the past. I know he can attest to how hard this is.

5. If anyone believes that they are capable of the same level of performance and have the money to try this but lack an access point into the pools, contact me privately. Seriously, if you’re real I can get you the wagering resources and rebates you need. That’s what I do these days.

6. Finally, no, I don’t have a CAW model myself. I’ve played around with them before but I have never been able to develop a profitable one. It’s not an easy thing to do.

PaceAdvantage
02-03-2018, 03:00 PM
5. If anyone believes that they are capable of the same level of performance and have the money to try this but lack an access point into the pools, contact me privately. Seriously, if youíre real I can get you the wagering resources and rebates you need. Thatís what I do these days.Thanks Ian. Everything you wrote pretty much gibes with what I have been writing here...but people are going to latch onto point #5 as proof of something insidious.

What exactly do you mean by "access point into the pools" and "wagering resources?"

Poindexter
02-03-2018, 03:12 PM
OK, I feel like I have to do this every couple of months now. I guess there are a few that donít remember or never read my replies because the same stuff keeps coming up again and again re CAW teams.


1. CAW teams are no better than their handicapping algorithms. Iíve read nonsense on this board as well as many others than they have an advantage because they can win even if they lose. Yeah, as long as their percentage loss is less than their rebate rate. Guess what, thatís true for all rebate players. If youíre not playing with a rebate (other than guys in a handful of states than have onerous source market fees), thatís on you. I can name a bunch of reputable ADWs that offer rebates including the one I started, BetPTC. I know a number of non-CAW players that make money because they lose at a rate lower than the rebates they receive.

2. There is no secret tote that CAW teams have access to that show Ďhiddení will-pays. Thereís not enough bandwidth available throughout the tote system to provide this even if someone wanted to. Remember, they need information on every combo bet on every guest site as well. Even if that COULD be made available it would be virtually useless because liquidity is so low at most tracks and such a large percentage of handle comes in in the final flash that information would be useless. Without giving away the secret sauce CAW teams PROJECT what the final dividend will be based upon historical data, current money in the pool, ML odds, exacta odds, etc. The best teams have the best dividend projection models. Accurate dividend projections are very, very hard to make.

3. CAW teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models and will labor for YEARS spending money collecting and analyzing data before they make even one bet. Iím not going to call out anyone specifically but there are guys on this board and others like it (including Twitter) that bitch if they have to pay for PPs and you believe that youíre going to be on a level playing field with guys that spend $50,000+ a year on back data? Last year alone I made $75,000 of data purchases on behalf of U.S. & International CAW clients.

4. Iím not trying to sound harsh; the guys that make up CAW teams are a lot smarter than you are. Theyíre a lot smarter than I am too and Iím a well-educated guy. These guys are rocket scientists, literally. One guy I know on a start-up team Iím working with has a dual PHD in Nuclear Physics and Aeronautical Engineering. Donít you think that is some kind of advantage when youíre working with numerical data? Dave Schwartz is a brilliant guy, smarter than I am and has worked with teams in the past. I know he can attest to how hard this is.

5. If anyone believes that they are capable of the same level of performance and have the money to try this but lack an access point into the pools, contact me privately. Seriously, if youíre real I can get you the wagering resources and rebates you need. Thatís what I do these days.

6. Finally, no, I donít have a CAW model myself. Iíve played around with them before but I have never been able to develop a profitable one. Itís not an easy thing to do.

These are the guys that racing gives huge rebates to and gives last second access to the pools......and then they go on to blame competitiion as the reason their sport is failing. I just have one reaction:
:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol: :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol: :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol: :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

gabe
02-03-2018, 03:24 PM
And just to add some spice to the thread (as if it needed anymore) I firmly believe that some are able to cancel wagers withing one or two seconds of the gate opening. Especially on need the lead types who don't break well.

imagine that for QH's?

thaskalos
02-03-2018, 03:28 PM
OK, I feel like I have to do this every couple of months now. I guess there are a few that donít remember or never read my replies because the same stuff keeps coming up again and again re CAW teams.


1. CAW teams are no better than their handicapping algorithms. Iíve read nonsense on this board as well as many others than they have an advantage because they can win even if they lose. Yeah, as long as their percentage loss is less than their rebate rate. Guess what, thatís true for all rebate players. If youíre not playing with a rebate (other than guys in a handful of states than have onerous source market fees), thatís on you. I can name a bunch of reputable ADWs that offer rebates including the one I started, BetPTC. I know a number of non-CAW players that make money because they lose at a rate lower than the rebates they receive.

2. There is no secret tote that CAW teams have access to that show Ďhiddení will-pays. Thereís not enough bandwidth available throughout the tote system to provide this even if someone wanted to. Remember, they need information on every combo bet on every guest site as well. Even if that COULD be made available it would be virtually useless because liquidity is so low at most tracks and such a large percentage of handle comes in in the final flash that information would be useless. Without giving away the secret sauce CAW teams PROJECT what the final dividend will be based upon historical data, current money in the pool, ML odds, exacta odds, etc. The best teams have the best dividend projection models. Accurate dividend projections are very, very hard to make.

3. CAW teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models and will labor for YEARS spending money collecting and analyzing data before they make even one bet. Iím not going to call out anyone specifically but there are guys on this board and others like it (including Twitter) that bitch if they have to pay for PPs and you believe that youíre going to be on a level playing field with guys that spend $50,000+ a year on back data? Last year alone I made $75,000 of data purchases on behalf of U.S. & International CAW clients.

4. Iím not trying to sound harsh; the guys that make up CAW teams are a lot smarter than you are. Theyíre a lot smarter than I am too and Iím a well-educated guy. These guys are rocket scientists, literally. One guy I know on a start-up team Iím working with has a dual PHD in Nuclear Physics and Aeronautical Engineering. Donít you think that is some kind of advantage when youíre working with numerical data? Dave Schwartz is a brilliant guy, smarter than I am and has worked with teams in the past. I know he can attest to how hard this is.

5. If anyone believes that they are capable of the same level of performance and have the money to try this but lack an access point into the pools, contact me privately. Seriously, if youíre real I can get you the wagering resources and rebates you need. Thatís what I do these days.

6. Finally, no, I donít have a CAW model myself. Iíve played around with them before but I have never been able to develop a profitable one. Itís not an easy thing to do.

At the risk of "sounding harsh"...it doesn't exactly take an "astrophysicist" to realize that a "well-connected" person, who posts publicly under his real name...would be reluctant to post damning declarations about a topic such as this in a public online forum.

GMB@BP
02-03-2018, 04:17 PM
Wasnt the point of the discussion if this was good for the sport versus is it happening.

Ian Meyers
02-03-2018, 04:37 PM
At the risk of "sounding harsh"...it doesn't exactly take an "astrophysicist" to realize that a "well-connected" person, who posts publicly under his real name...would be reluctant to post damning declarations about a topic such as this in a public online forum.


In my corporate career, I was an asset securitization (a way to move/fund assets off of a company's balance sheet) specialist for money center banks and investment banks. When counseling senior treasury execs about the pros/cons I'd point out that once you start securitization you can't stop because the (accounting) gains you recognize up front turn into losses as the bonds pay down. I believe CAW is similar. Racing got hooked on the gains (as a way to stabilize falling handle) and now can't quit it because handle would fall to $6 billion.

And I use my real name because I'm not afraid to. I never hide behind fake names. Ever. I'm not saying that's always been wise but I'm not afraid to say something and have everyone know I said it.

cj
02-03-2018, 04:41 PM
In my corporate career, I was an asset securitization (a way to move/fund assets off of a company's balance sheet) specialist for money center banks and investment banks. When counseling senior treasury execs about the pros/cons I'd point out that once you start securitization you can't stop because the (accounting) gains you recognize up front turn into losses as the bonds pay down. I believe CAW is similar. Racing got hooked on the gains (as a way to stabilize falling handle) and now can't quit it because handle would fall to $6 billion.

And I use my real name because I'm not afraid to. I never hide behind fake names. Ever. I'm not saying that's always been wise but I'm not afraid to say something and have everyone know I said it.

I think this is it in a nutshell. Racing did everything it could to stem the tide of declining handle. What is the saying, something about digging a grave and having to lie in it?

Ian is as stand up a guy as you will find in the industry IMO.

GMB@BP
02-03-2018, 04:43 PM
In my corporate career, I was an asset securitization (a way to move/fund assets off of a company's balance sheet) specialist for money center banks and investment banks. When counseling senior treasury execs about the pros/cons I'd point out that once you start securitization you can't stop because the (accounting) gains you recognize up front turn into losses as the bonds pay down. I believe CAW is similar. Racing got hooked on the gains (as a way to stabilize falling handle) and now can't quit it because handle would fall to $6 billion.

And I use my real name because I'm not afraid to. I never hide behind fake names. Ever. I'm not saying that's always been wise but I'm not afraid to say something and have everyone know I said it.

So what your saying is basically racing is screwed if this ever goes awa...lmao

Ian Meyers
02-03-2018, 04:52 PM
So what your saying is basically racing is screwed if this ever goes awa...lmao

If it went away overnight, yes. There are ways to manage a wind down the same way there are ways to phase out off-balance sheet financings. It's not easily done though and not done without some pain.

Thanks very much to CJ for the kind words. :)

thaskalos
02-03-2018, 05:08 PM
In my corporate career, I was an asset securitization (a way to move/fund assets off of a company's balance sheet) specialist for money center banks and investment banks. When counseling senior treasury execs about the pros/cons I'd point out that once you start securitization you can't stop because the (accounting) gains you recognize up front turn into losses as the bonds pay down. I believe CAW is similar. Racing got hooked on the gains (as a way to stabilize falling handle) and now can't quit it because handle would fall to $6 billion.

And I use my real name because I'm not afraid to. I never hide behind fake names. Ever. I'm not saying that's always been wise but I'm not afraid to say something and have everyone know I said it.

I meant no disrespect by my retort, Ian, I just felt that your post here had an unnecessary (and atypical) hint of "anger" in it...especially when you stated that..."the guys who make up CAW teams are a lot smarter than you are. They're a lot smarter than I am too and I'm a well-educated guy". As you can plainly see...the clear implication made by the way you crafted these sentences is that the rest of us here aren't "well-educated"...which may, or may NOT be true. If you got angry because your prior posts of this type had gone "ignored" by us, causing you to have to "repeat" yourself...then I, for one, assure you that it wasn't done INTENTIONALLY. I can't even remember what I ate yesterday.

thaskalos
02-03-2018, 05:18 PM
I think this is it in a nutshell. Racing did everything it could to stem the tide of declining handle. What is the saying, something about digging a grave and having to lie in it?


In post #54, I said the same thing...using different words.

Ian Meyers
02-03-2018, 05:35 PM
I meant no disrespect by my retort, Ian, I just felt that your post here had an unnecessary (and atypical) hint of "anger" in it...especially when you stated that..."the guys who make up CAW teams are a lot smarter than you are. They're a lot smarter than I am too and I'm a well-educated guy". As you can plainly see...the clear implication made by the way you crafted these sentences is that the rest of us here aren't "well-educated"...which may, or may NOT be true. If you got angry because your prior posts of this type had gone "ignored" by us, causing you to have to "repeat" yourself...then I, for one, assure you that it wasn't done INTENTIONALLY. I can't even remember what I ate yesterday.

Wasn't directed at you, and I KNOW there are a lot of well-educated people on this board. I've heard a lot of people say over the years "yeah, I could win too if I got those rebates or I could bet after the bell, or scan the pools for overlays, etc." What I was pointing out is that it's not easy to do this.

CAW teams are populated by the smartest of the smart. When I'm on calls with them I always feel like I'm the dumbest (outside of subject matter expertise things). The team I work most closely with has about 30 employees none without a PHD in some quantitative field. What I was trying to say, and I admit not very elegantly, that maybe some that criticize should just recognize that when you get a bunch of mathematicians together to develop trading models you're likely to get some very good stuff. They also, to a man, work harder than most people I know, 60+ hours a week typically.

The other irony in all this is a number of guys I know were making MUCH more working for hedge funds and left to do this because they thought it would be a cool thing to do.

Hambletonian
02-03-2018, 08:40 PM
I can't believe this subject is even debatable.

If you are a value player, the computer guys have taken away all the major circuits. If I like a horse whose fair odds are 6-1 and he is 10-1 2 minutes before post time, how can I be sure that a computer tied directly into the pools is not going to dump thousands of dollars into the pool in the last second and take away that edge? Their computer programs look through all the pools for these edges and neutralize them.

I wouldn't give a crap if they all had to enter their bets manually, and if they did not have access to all the will pays electronically. Let them all what the will pays until their eyes bleed like the rest of us, and put in their own bets with their fingers.

Ian Meyers
02-03-2018, 09:48 PM
Not to single Hambletonian, out but there are thousands of smaller players that have developed software that analyzes will pays and places bets. In fact, some like At The Races is sold for as little as $100. Jcapper has great software that can search for value, same with Dave Schwartz.

Big players actually have LESS of an advantage than they did ten years ago in terms of technology/access. I know that because my partners and I at PTC were the first ADW to develop some of those tools.

PaceAdvantage
02-03-2018, 10:13 PM
Like I said when this whole tangent took off again, adapt or die.

VigorsTheGrey
02-03-2018, 11:32 PM
Wasn't directed at you, and I KNOW there are a lot of well-educated people on this board. I've heard a lot of people say over the years "yeah, I could win too if I got those rebates or I could bet after the bell, or scan the pools for overlays, etc." What I was pointing out is that it's not easy to do this.

CAW teams are populated by the smartest of the smart. When I'm on calls with them I always feel like I'm the dumbest (outside of subject matter expertise things). The team I work most closely with has about 30 employees none without a PHD in some quantitative field. What I was trying to say, and I admit not very elegantly, that maybe some that criticize should just recognize that when you get a bunch of mathematicians together to develop trading models you're likely to get some very good stuff. They also, to a man, work harder than most people I know, 60+ hours a week typically.


The other irony in all this is a number of guys I know were making MUCH more working for hedge funds and left to do this because they thought it would be a cool thing to do.

So you work with a team of about 30 math PHDs betting on horses..? Not that I doubt you but it is sort of surprising...and you say that many actually PREFER the racing challenge over the hedge fund biz even though they make less...? So is this joint effort a hobby or a business venture...? I just have never heard of a gaggle of math PHDís being so involved in something of this nature....usually math nerds are much more practical in their life endeavors...please tell us more details about all this...it sounds very interesting....

PaceAdvantage
02-04-2018, 12:01 AM
So you work with a team of about 30 math PHDs betting on horses..? Not that I doubt you but it is sort of surprising...and you say that many actually PREFER the racing challenge over the hedge fund biz even though they make less...? So is this joint effort a hobby or a business venture...? I just have never heard of a gaggle of math PHDís being so involved in something of this nature....usually math nerds are much more practical in their life endeavors...please tell us more details about all this...it sounds very interesting....Don't even bother trolling...I get it, you don't believe him....but it's true.

VigorsTheGrey
02-04-2018, 12:41 AM
Don't even bother trolling...I get it, you don't believe him....but it's true.why do insist on thinking I am a troll just because I express interest in a poster and a post...really mike, it is sort of intimidating...you really just do not like me do you...? You give me no benefit of the doubt whatsoever, do you...I get it, you donít have anything better to do than to TROLL me, do you...?

PaceAdvantage
02-04-2018, 01:11 AM
why do insist on thinking I am a troll just because I express interest in a poster and a post...really mike, it is sort of intimidating...you really just do not like me do you...? You give me no benefit of the doubt whatsoever, do you...I get it, you donít have anything better to do than to TROLL me, do you...?I've been around the block...you've been a troll off and on since day one.

And I like the passive aggressiveness in your last post. "Not that I doubt you..." then you go on and post nothing but doubtful questions.

You're trolling us bro...I get it...happens all the time.

VigorsTheGrey
02-04-2018, 02:16 AM
I've been around the block...you've been a troll off and on since day one.

And I like the passive aggressiveness in your last post. "Not that I doubt you..." then you go on and post nothing but doubtful questions.

You're trolling us bro...I get it...happens all the time.
And what would be my motivation for trolling on this website...a site that I am really quite fond of...participate regularly in..and respect all of itís members and have not once said anything directly personal but only my opinions of rather general items... really mike you need to get a grip on This...I am a nice person who enjoys talking with other horseplayers about horse racing topics...you are very mistaken about me being some kind of troll...you are not dealing in reality on this one....what do you think I would to trying to accomplish by what you refer to as my ďtrollingĒ. ...
..thatís just plain wacko...I dislike telling you this but I would like it to stop...and donít know any other way than to just be open about it and tell you the truth....

PaceAdvantage
02-04-2018, 02:24 AM
Thaskalos already brought up off-topic into this thread. Should I go into your early days in off-topic? In the religion section?

Like I said...I know you're trolling me bro...I get it...you can stop the act.

"Not that I doubt you..." but here's my list of doubts...LMAO

Funny guy.

Good troll bro.

VigorsTheGrey
02-04-2018, 02:52 AM
Thaskalos already brought up off-topic into this thread. Should I go into your early days in off-topic? In the religion section?

Like I said...I know you're trolling me bro...I get it...you can stop the act.

"Not that I doubt you..." but here's my list of doubts...LMAO

Funny guy.

Good troll bro.I wasnít doubting him, quite the opposite...I KNOW that he is telling the truth, that is what I find so disturbing...that there exist coteries of PHDís that have formed Doctorís Club Cartels to exploit parimutuel pools across the nation using sophisticated computerized high volume methods to enrich themselves at the expense of rank and file players...this is a horrible thing for racing to be happening....so no, I DO NOT DOUBT HIM AT ALL, I only wish it were not the case, and that these Sophistcated and highly organized Operations that employ upwards of 30 PHD employees in a kind of brain trust would abandon their methods for the good of racing...and the small player. IMHO....

PaceAdvantage
02-04-2018, 11:59 AM
I wasn’t doubting him, quite the opposite...I KNOW that he is telling the truth, that is what I find so disturbing...that there exist coteries of PHD’s that have formed Doctor’s Club Cartels to exploit parimutuel pools across the nation using sophisticated computerized high volume methods to enrich themselves at the expense of rank and file players...this is a horrible thing for racing to be happening....so no, I DO NOT DOUBT HIM AT ALL, I only wish it were not the case, and that these Sophistcated and highly organized Operations that employ upwards of 30 PHD employees in a kind of brain trust would abandon their methods for the good of racing...and the small player. IMHO....OK. I apologize then.

However, what you wrote above makes me almost want to vomit.

You want to take away someone's edge just because they are better than you...

Not only is that against the whole point of becoming a serious handicapper, it's pretty much anti-American...:lol:

What is with you guys?

GET A GRIP.

These "CRW teams" haven't made the game unbeatable for the rest of us. They've provided one helluva excuse to whine though...

Tom
02-04-2018, 12:08 PM
I can't believe this subject is even debatable.

If you are a value player, the computer guys have taken away all the major circuits. If I like a horse whose fair odds are 6-1 and he is 10-1 2 minutes before post time, how can I be sure that a computer tied directly into the pools is not going to dump thousands of dollars into the pool in the last second and take away that edge? Their computer programs look through all the pools for these edges and neutralize them.

I wouldn't give a crap if they all had to enter their bets manually, and if they did not have access to all the will pays electronically. Let them all what the will pays until their eyes bleed like the rest of us, and put in their own bets with their fingers.

Amen - NO one should be allowed to tie into the pools to wager.
There should be only one way to make a bet - manually, one at a time. ADW, on track, phone call. Period.

PaceAdvantage
02-04-2018, 12:47 PM
Amen - NO one should be allowed to tie into the pools to wager.
There should be only one way to make a bet - manually, one at a time. ADW, on track, phone call. Period.What? Come on man...what about the batch betting features at multiple ADWs?

What about the program I wrote that automatically bets for me...multiple bets at a time...as many as I want?

Are you guys joking?

PaceAdvantage
02-04-2018, 12:49 PM
You guys all say you want to emulate the financial markets.

Well, in the financial markets, they have this thing called automated trading. Yes, you can manually enter trades, the old fashioned way.

Or you can have a BOT trade for you...entering all sorts of trades in a split second.

You guys scream progress, and then when progress arrives, you want to shut it down quick because you perceive it's making you lose.

thaskalos
02-04-2018, 12:58 PM
You guys all say you want to emulate the financial markets.

Well, in the financial markets, they have this thing called automated trading. Yes, you can manually enter trades, the old fashioned way.

Or you can have a BOT trade for you...entering all sorts of trades in a split second.

You guys scream progress, and then when progress arrives, you want to shut it down quick because you perceive it's making you lose.

Are you able to reproduce some of our posts where we "all say that we want to emulate the financial markets"?

Andy Asaro
02-04-2018, 01:02 PM
You guys all say you want to emulate the financial markets.

Well, in the financial markets, they have this thing called automated trading. Yes, you can manually enter trades, the old fashioned way.

Or you can have a BOT trade for you...entering all sorts of trades in a split second.

You guys scream progress, and then when progress arrives, you want to shut it down quick because you perceive it's making you lose.

Suppose for a minute that they eliminated rebates on losing wagers but gave double rebates on winning wagers and nobody had the advantage of using a direct tote given to them by the ADW/Track (and certainly nothing wrong with creating your own program). The question is ...

Do you think that would alter the way they bet? If so, what does that say about the vastly different strategy employed by the whales and how it affects the odds? Bankroll edge, skill edge, massive rebate edge, and for some a tote edge IMO.

It is said that whales would rather have lower take for all cuz the pools would be bigger. I doubt their sincerity since the lower takeout for all wouldn't give rebates on losing wagers.

Andy Asaro
02-04-2018, 01:32 PM
Suppose for a minute that they eliminated rebates on losing wagers but gave double rebates on winning wagers and nobody had the advantage of using a direct tote given to them by the ADW/Track (and certainly nothing wrong with creating your own program). The question is ...

Do you think that would alter the way they bet? If so, what does that say about the vastly different strategy employed by the whales and how it affects the odds? Bankroll edge, skill edge, massive rebate edge, and for some a tote edge IMO.

It is said that whales would rather have lower take for all cuz the pools would be bigger. I doubt their sincerity since the lower takeout for all wouldn't give rebates on losing wagers.

Or say rebates on losing wagers were cut in half???? What then?

PaceAdvantage
02-04-2018, 01:36 PM
Suppose for a minute that they eliminated rebates on losing wagers but gave double rebates on winning wagers and nobody had the advantage of using a direct tote given to them by the ADW/Track (and certainly nothing wrong with creating your own program). The question is ...

Do you think that would alter the way they bet? If so, what does that say about the vastly different strategy employed by the whales and how it affects the odds? Bankroll edge, skill edge, massive rebate edge, and for some a tote edge IMO.

It is said that whales would rather have lower take for all cuz the pools would be bigger. I doubt their sincerity since the lower takeout for all wouldn't give rebates on losing wagers.All I want to know is this...

WHAT THE HELL IS A "DIRECT TOTE?"

Poindexter
02-04-2018, 02:03 PM
Suppose for a minute that they eliminated rebates on losing wagers but gave double rebates on winning wagers and nobody had the advantage of using a direct tote given to them by the ADW/Track (and certainly nothing wrong with creating your own program). The question is ...

Do you think that would alter the way they bet? If so, what does that say about the vastly different strategy employed by the whales and how it affects the odds? Bankroll edge, skill edge, massive rebate edge, and for some a tote edge IMO.

It is said that whales would rather have lower take for all cuz the pools would be bigger. I doubt their sincerity since the lower takeout for all wouldn't give rebates on losing wagers.

A rebate is a rebate whether it is on losing wagers or winning wagers. If I bet a million dollars a year and break even, if my average rebate is 5% I will end up a net winner of $50,000. If this was switched to just my winning bets, I still have a million dollars in winning bets(payouts), on your method I will now get double rebated 10% or $100,000 of course I will lose the ability to batch bet. I think most whales would probably jump at that tradeoff. With all the extra money they will be making they can hire people to enter the bets for them 2 minutes earlier.

I am in the minority here. I dont think CRW is the problem(it doesn't help) and it makes the days of the Barry Meadow style "I need $18 on the 1-7 exacta and it is paying $21" pretty much obsolete as the CRW's will likely correct that mistake,.The problem is rebates. It provides incentive to these groups to knock all the value out of all value combinations. The bigger the rebate the more they are able to knock out the value. If they are getting a 15% rebate on a trifecta or superfecta they can use their models to estimate the price based of the toteboard(all that statistical stuff Ian is talking about) and bet them down to 7 or 8 % below fair value (leaving themselves a profit margin and putting the public at below even). Andy C is now going to chime in that but the other trifecta combinations go up. So what. The combinations that are going up are low probability and already at -20 to -40%, so they will be a little less disadantageous. The end result is that basically every combination is below fair value and the only people that can make money are those with high rebates themselve or those that have found methods of predicting outcomes that are off the radar of these groups.

If there were no rebates, they would not have that option. There only option would be to leave themselves some profit margin. This is the only way the game can surrvive long term. Imo, this sport can survive and thrive fine with an 8% wps take, a 10% exacta take and 12% takeout on all other exotics if it eliminates rebates. CRW alone would not bring this game down. These ridiculous last minute price swings would be a fraction of what they currently are if rebates were gone. As far as racing being stuck in this death bed. I call Bullshit. If you want the sport to grow and succeed. you look in the rear view mirror, you see that your idiotic idea did not work, you use a little common sense and realize that it cannot work and you change the gameplan so racing doesn't become a game of the past. You may bleed a little or even a lot initially but the end result is a much better game that has a chance to grow and prosper thrive far beyond what today's game has any chance of becoming. What we have today is ultimately going to be useless to everyone including the Whales. Of course they will go back to their hedge funds and the entire racing economy will be left licking its wounds.

Of course the Whales will not like this much, despite what they say, because
it will kill a ton of their action.The only ones that would like that kind of change are the ones that realize that the Candy Store will not be open forever and that eventually there will be no betting economy to fleece. You can bet a lot more money pounding trifecta, superfeca and exacta combos to well below market market value than you can bringing them to down to +5 or +7 %. If you want whales to play your game, this is what you should want them to do. CRW is not the big problem, Rebates are.

VigorsTheGrey
02-04-2018, 02:15 PM
ď3. CAW teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models and will labor for YEARS spending money collecting and analyzing data before they make even one bet. ď

This statement is interesting.

Now then, racing in America is based on parimutuel wagering but CANNOT survive without a healthy and sizable FAN BASE....so I think we have to look at the goals of the FAN BASE versus the goals of the CAW teams...

Why would these Teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models....? Obviously, because they believe that if their models ďworkĒ that literally HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of dollars can be gained as the result of their combined efforts which they then, presumably, would split....

These teams are probably composed of people who already have plenty of resources and many of them are already successful in other areas of financial venturing, including, probably Wall Street.

For me, it is the whole scale of the operations that is disturbing and how the gross scales affect the fortunes of the rank and file players and their ability to compete in this kind of market being dominated by automation cartels, whales, sharks, not to mention the inside machinations of the horsemen themselves (however infrequently this occurs).

If they are successful in their models and their schemes are brought to fruition, which on some level they already are, then the cartels and whales will price all others out of the market and they themselves will be subject to an effect of diminishing returns after they have destroyed the POPULAR FAN BASE, who are leaving the game due to many factors including the gut feeling that they are being bilked financially through the wagering process itself first, then sucked dry by cartels and other ďresourcefulĒ wagering professionals...

If the POPULAR FAN BASE continues to be impacted by innovative automated handicapping and gross wagers schemes, then you might as well put a fork into all of it because, frankly, WE ARE ALL DONE...

Poindexter
02-04-2018, 02:49 PM
ď3. CAW teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models and will labor for YEARS spending money collecting and analyzing data before they make even one bet. ď

This statement is interesting.

Now then, racing in America is based on parimutuel wagering but CANNOT survive without a healthy and sizable FAN BASE....so I think we have to look at the goals of the FAN BASE versus the goals of the CAW teams...

Why would these Teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models....? Obviously, because they believe that if their models ďworkĒ that literally HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of dollars can be gained as the result of their combined efforts which they then, presumably, would split....

These teams are probably composed of people who already have plenty of resources and many of them are already successful in other areas of financial venturing, including, probably Wall Street.

For me, it is the whole scale of the operations that is disturbing and how the gross scales affect the fortunes of the rank and file players and their ability to compete in this kind of market being dominated by automation cartels, whales, sharks, not to mention the inside machinations of the horsemen themselves (however infrequently this occurs).

If they are successful in their models and their schemes are brought to fruition, which on some level they already are, then the cartels and whales will price all others out of the market and they themselves will be subject to an effect of diminishing returns after they have destroyed the POPULAR FAN BASE, who are leaving the game due to many factors including the gut feeling that they are being bilked financially through the wagering process itself first, then sucked dry by cartels and other ďresourcefulĒ wagering professionals...

If the POPULAR FAN BASE continues to be impacted by innovative automated handicapping and gross wagers schemes, then you might as well put a fork into all of it because, frankly, WE ARE ALL DONE...

You have seen the light or in this case the dark (the demise of horse racing).

But have no fear there a Jackpot pool somewhere to save the day.

Tom
02-04-2018, 04:59 PM
You guys scream progress, and then when progress arrives, you want to shut it down quick because you perceive it's making you lose.

Is it really progress when you purposely give a major advantage to a small percentage of your customers? Racing in NOT the financial markets - it is a business, a gambling game run by a track.

Should NYS give some kind of advantage to people who buy large numbers of lotto tickets over the guy who buys a couple every week?

They are not making ME lose - they are LOSING me. I bet under 10% of what I used to bet because the game suck so very much these days. Most day, I bet 0. Will be less this year. Much less.Is that the way to grow the game?

Nor adaptor die, adapt or leave.

I am not stupid enough to go out and buy a bunch of stock every day knowing that I have no shot against professional traders.

We gripe about tracks ignoring racing and favoring the casinos - that is their way to adapt. And all those people who go to them and pass by the entrance to he track. Why should they bother even looking at racing? The game is forcing the small bettors out just like it is forcing the small trainers and owners out. Pretty soon, the Bafferts and the Pletchers will have to find a filed and race their horses against each other because you won;t need race tracks with a handful of trainers and handful of whales betting on them.

molson721
02-04-2018, 08:26 PM
You guys all say you want to emulate the financial markets.

Well, in the financial markets, they have this thing called automated trading. Yes, you can manually enter trades, the old fashioned way.

Or you can have a BOT trade for you...entering all sorts of trades in a split second.

You guys scream progress, and then when progress arrives, you want to shut it down quick because you perceive it's making you lose.

Wild swings like this don't happen in the financial markets. When was the last time you made an automated trade and had the same type of price movement? IF financial markets moved like this (by percentage) in under 5 seconds from when a trade was placed, the government would be all over this investigating what is going on. Please don't call these type of odds swings as progress! :bang:

PaceAdvantage
02-04-2018, 10:27 PM
Wild swings like this don't happen in the financial markets. Of course they do....they're called flash crashes...I remember the Dow dropping over 1,000 points in 10 minutes...watched it happen live...what was that May 2015? Then it made most of it back the rest of the day...

That was due to BOTS...:lol:

A LOT more money was lost in that 10 minutes than all the racing handle combined since 2015...about a trillion dollars...how many years of combined racing handle would it take to equal that kind of move?

jay68802
02-04-2018, 10:45 PM
I think it was in August, I was buying a storage unit and the day before the bank was saying "you are good to go". The next morning it was "we better wait". I closed on the property 2 days later.

PaceAdvantage
02-04-2018, 10:46 PM
Nope, I looked it up...and I was off a few years...the one I was thinking of was May 6, 2010

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Flash_Crash

jay68802
02-04-2018, 10:54 PM
Nope, I looked it up...and I was off a few years...the one I was thinking of was May 6, 2010

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Flash_Crash

August 24th 2015.

Andy Asaro
02-04-2018, 11:46 PM
All I want to know is this...

WHAT THE HELL IS A "DIRECT TOTE?"

I don't know the specific term. You're wrong.

fiznow
02-05-2018, 04:36 AM
Is it really progress when you purposely give a major advantage to a small percentage of your customers? Racing in NOT the financial markets - it is a business, a gambling game run by a track.

Should NYS give some kind of advantage to people who buy large numbers of lotto tickets over the guy who buys a couple every week?

They are not making ME lose - they are LOSING me. I bet under 10% of what I used to bet because the game suck so very much these days. Most day, I bet 0. Will be less this year. Much less.Is that the way to grow the game?

Nor adaptor die, adapt or leave.

I am not stupid enough to go out and buy a bunch of stock every day knowing that I have no shot against professional traders.

We gripe about tracks ignoring racing and favoring the casinos - that is their way to adapt. And all those people who go to them and pass by the entrance to he track. Why should they bother even looking at racing? The game is forcing the small bettors out just like it is forcing the small trainers and owners out. Pretty soon, the Bafferts and the Pletchers will have to find a filed and race their horses against each other because you won;t need race tracks with a handful of trainers and handful of whales betting on them.

I agree, its no progress. Its just pool manipulation and doesnt have anything to do with horse racing.

GMB@BP
02-05-2018, 09:45 AM
So just to sum it up....

If you play into these pools and are not getting a rebate your pretty much a sucker?

PaceAdvantage
02-05-2018, 10:21 AM
August 24th 2015.That was another one...but the one I fondly remember is 5/6/10....that was a doozy...

PaceAdvantage
02-05-2018, 10:24 AM
I don't know the specific term. You're wrong.What does this mean? I'm wrong about what? I didn't make a statement...I asked a question...

What does having a "DIRECT TOTE," to quote you specifically, actually mean?

Do I have a "DIRECT TOTE" if I write a separate piece of software that communicates directly with my ADW and bypasses the web interface that most other people use? And this software can bet for me, automatically, if it detects something worth betting based on pool information that it can also download and analyze.

Do I have a "DIRECT TOTE" in that instance?

Just trying to understand the terminology some of you are using that makes all this stuff sound so "illegal."

Andy Asaro
02-05-2018, 11:56 AM
What does this mean? I'm wrong about what? I didn't make a statement...I asked a question...

What does having a "DIRECT TOTE," to quote you specifically, actually mean?

Do I have a "DIRECT TOTE" if I write a separate piece of software that communicates directly with my ADW and bypasses the web interface that most other people use? And this software can bet for me, automatically, if it detects something worth betting based on pool information that it can also download and analyze.

Do I have a "DIRECT TOTE" in that instance?

Just trying to understand the terminology some of you are using that makes all this stuff sound so "illegal."

It's not illegal

PaceAdvantage
02-05-2018, 12:24 PM
It's not illegalYou don't like answering my question, do you?

I really want to know what you consider a "DIRECT TOTE" and why you make such things sound so dirty (we'll eliminate "illegal" and switch to "dirty.")

I still eagerly await your definition, because I truly don't know.

Andy Asaro
02-05-2018, 12:27 PM
You don't like answering my question, do you?

I really want to know what you consider a "DIRECT TOTE" and why you make such things sound so dirty (we'll eliminate "illegal" and switch to "dirty.")

I still eagerly await your definition, because I truly don't know.

If I knew the correct term I would have written it already. Sound dirty? The current parimutuel system is corrupted IMO

ronsmac
02-05-2018, 01:51 PM
So just to sum it up....

If you play into these pools and are not getting a rebate your pretty much a sucker?
Yes.

Andy Asaro
02-05-2018, 02:28 PM
You don't like answering my question, do you?

I really want to know what you consider a "DIRECT TOTE" and why you make such things sound so dirty (we'll eliminate "illegal" and switch to "dirty.")

I still eagerly await your definition, because I truly don't know.

The term is API

PaceAdvantage
02-05-2018, 02:36 PM
The term is APIHow is an API any different than taking what one can do manually and automating it?

It's not...

Like I said, I was doing this at least 10 years ago...on a rudimentary level, but the principle was still the same.

Nobody gave me anything. The ADW didn't give me anything. I wrote it myself.

The only thing an API does is make it easier to accomplish...and may also provide a faster way of getting information over than writing one yourself...

It's not magic secret sauce to riches. Nor does it provide an unfair advantage.

The advantage they have is in their value algorithms and their wagering algorithms.

Being able to get the bets in fast and close to the start of the race is something anyone, with a little effort, can do...

If I gave you the ability to get in a ton of bets at the last minute, would that suddenly turn you into this rebate whale? No. You need a lot more than that.

ultracapper
02-05-2018, 02:48 PM
OK, I feel like I have to do this every couple of months now. I guess there are a few that donít remember or never read my replies because the same stuff keeps coming up again and again re CAW teams.


1. CAW teams are no better than their handicapping algorithms. Iíve read nonsense on this board as well as many others than they have an advantage because they can win even if they lose. Yeah, as long as their percentage loss is less than their rebate rate. Guess what, thatís true for all rebate players. If youíre not playing with a rebate (other than guys in a handful of states than have onerous source market fees), thatís on you. I can name a bunch of reputable ADWs that offer rebates including the one I started, BetPTC. I know a number of non-CAW players that make money because they lose at a rate lower than the rebates they receive.

2. There is no secret tote that CAW teams have access to that show Ďhiddení will-pays. Thereís not enough bandwidth available throughout the tote system to provide this even if someone wanted to. Remember, they need information on every combo bet on every guest site as well. Even if that COULD be made available it would be virtually useless because liquidity is so low at most tracks and such a large percentage of handle comes in in the final flash that information would be useless. Without giving away the secret sauce CAW teams PROJECT what the final dividend will be based upon historical data, current money in the pool, ML odds, exacta odds, etc. The best teams have the best dividend projection models. Accurate dividend projections are very, very hard to make.

3. CAW teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models and will labor for YEARS spending money collecting and analyzing data before they make even one bet. Iím not going to call out anyone specifically but there are guys on this board and others like it (including Twitter) that bitch if they have to pay for PPs and you believe that youíre going to be on a level playing field with guys that spend $50,000+ a year on back data? Last year alone I made $75,000 of data purchases on behalf of U.S. & International CAW clients.

4. Iím not trying to sound harsh; the guys that make up CAW teams are a lot smarter than you are. Theyíre a lot smarter than I am too and Iím a well-educated guy. These guys are rocket scientists, literally. One guy I know on a start-up team Iím working with has a dual PHD in Nuclear Physics and Aeronautical Engineering. Donít you think that is some kind of advantage when youíre working with numerical data? Dave Schwartz is a brilliant guy, smarter than I am and has worked with teams in the past. I know he can attest to how hard this is.

5. If anyone believes that they are capable of the same level of performance and have the money to try this but lack an access point into the pools, contact me privately. Seriously, if youíre real I can get you the wagering resources and rebates you need. Thatís what I do these days.

6. Finally, no, I donít have a CAW model myself. Iíve played around with them before but I have never been able to develop a profitable one. Itís not an easy thing to do.

Awesome, informative post. Thanks for taking the time and effort to make it. I speculate as much, if not more, than the next guy on this subject as all my info is second hand and/or empty handed. I then try to extrapolate and understand what's going on that I can't see clearly first hand. You've cleared up a great deal for me. To the point that I see there are niches for players like myself, and actually, about 10 years ago, by total accident and coincidence, fell into one. I'm no competition for these guys in any way, but they have left opportunity out there, no matter how good of handicappers/value bettors they may become.

thaskalos
02-05-2018, 03:02 PM
How is an API any different than taking what one can do manually and automating it?

It's not...

Like I said, I was doing this at least 10 years ago...on a rudimentary level, but the principle was still the same.

Nobody gave me anything. The ADW didn't give me anything. I wrote it myself.

The only thing an API does is make it easier to accomplish...and may also provide a faster way of getting information over than writing one yourself...

It's not magic secret sauce to riches. Nor does it provide an unfair advantage.

The advantage they have is in their value algorithms and their wagering algorithms.

Being able to get the bets in fast and close to the start of the race is something anyone, with a little effort, can do...

If I gave you the ability to get in a ton of bets at the last minute, would that suddenly turn you into this rebate whale? No. You need a lot more than that.

The "last minute" is an ETERNITY in today's computer age. These guys are placing their bets at the LAST SECOND. Yes...their real handicapping edge is the algorithms that they use...but in order to make proper use of these algorithms they must place their wagers AFTER the rest of us have placed theirs. If the whales placed their bets BEFORE the other players, then they would be at a disadvantage...so they decided to invest millions of dollars in payroll and software so they could make sure that this "disadvantage" is handed back to the rest of us.

Yes...technically you are right, of course. This "disadvantage" that the Whales have placed us in can't really be called "unfair"...because any of us with $10 million or so to spend on payroll and software can probably set up the same kind of "Whaling operation". But it's so much easier to just give up the game and move on to something else...which is what many of our brethren have chosen to do. And, WHO can blame them?

Andy Asaro
02-05-2018, 03:22 PM
How is an API any different than taking what one can do manually and automating it?

It's not...

Like I said, I was doing this at least 10 years ago...on a rudimentary level, but the principle was still the same.

Nobody gave me anything. The ADW didn't give me anything. I wrote it myself.

The only thing an API does is make it easier to accomplish...and may also provide a faster way of getting information over than writing one yourself...

It's not magic secret sauce to riches. Nor does it provide an unfair advantage.

The advantage they have is in their value algorithms and their wagering algorithms.

Being able to get the bets in fast and close to the start of the race is something anyone, with a little effort, can do...

If I gave you the ability to get in a ton of bets at the last minute, would that suddenly turn you into this rebate whale? No. You need a lot more than that.

The whole point is that they are playing a different game than most of us. Strategy is to break even or even lose a little and make money on the rebates. They (the biggest players) are able to do this because of the size of the rebates. With lower takeout for all everyone competes on a level playing field and skill and luck determine the winners. That's the only way the game can grow. And of course their strategy would have to change from the model they are currently using.

PaceAdvantage
02-05-2018, 03:26 PM
The "last minute" is an ETERNITY in today's computer age. These guys are placing their bets at the LAST SECOND. Yes...their real handicapping edge is the algorithms that they use...but in order to make proper use of these algorithms they must place their wagers AFTER the rest of us have placed theirs. If the whales placed their bets BEFORE the other players, then they would be at a disadvantage...so they decided to invest millions of dollars in payroll and software so they could make sure that this "disadvantage" is handed back to the rest of us.

Yes...technically you are right, of course. This "disadvantage" that the Whales have placed us in can't really be called "unfair"...because any of us with $10 million or so to spend on payroll and software can probably set up the same kind of "Whaling operation". But it's so much easier to just give up the game and move on to something else...which is what many of our brethren have chosen to do. And, WHO can blame them?Question...how do you think these operations are able to get their bets in "after the rest of us?"

Clearly, you don't think they're actually betting after the race goes off....do you?

If not, then they aren't actually getting it in AFTER the rest of us.

So what do you think they are doing? Putting the bet in when half the gate is loaded? Do they have timed algorithms for each track...so when a certain percentage of the gate is loaded, they put the bet in...

How do you think they do it?

These are genuine questions I have for those who keep telling me they are getting their bets in after the rest of us.

PaceAdvantage
02-05-2018, 03:28 PM
The whole point is that they are playing a different game than most of us. Strategy is to break even or even lose a little and make money on the rebates. They (the biggest players) are able to do this because of the size of the rebates. With lower takeout for all everyone competes on a level playing field and skill and luck determine the winners. That's the only way the game can grow. And of course their strategy would have to change from the model they are currently using.I don't have a problem with their wagering methods or goals. They are taking advantage of the environment in place. Who wouldn't do the same if they could?

I would. You would. We all would.

We would all like to be the Tom Brady of the NFL too...or the LeBron James of the NBA...but there are only a few of those types of successful athletes...

Poindexter
02-05-2018, 03:32 PM
So just to sum it up....

If you play into these pools and are not getting a rebate your pretty much a sucker?

Not a sucker. Such a harsh word. Somebody that has no chance of winning long term. But remember that racing is "entertainment", no different than going to a Basketball game or Hockey game or Movie or even Disneyworld. People pay to be entertained. You just have to get in the mind of a racing executive to understand how this works. They are not suckers they are given entertainment for their wager.

You see that racing believes that to build handle you give all the profits to a dozen or so betting groups and anyone else that can bet enough to earn a sizable enough rebate to turn a profit (and of course lives in the right state). This is the lifeblood of the sport and without this money there is no sport. Get with the program. Let's not look at the facts (that this sport did over 50% more handle it currently does when the rotten experiment began and the dollar was worth a heck of a lot more than it is worth today). Of course that is apple to oranges. You see racing was practically the only game in town back then and now racing has so much competition. So rather than compete with this competition (you know eliminate rebates, bring the takeout to comparable rates of the competition, give people a good product-competitive fields of 8+......), racing has a much better idea. Let raise the takeout. After all our core customers (The rebated ones) will bet just as much since they will be rebated more to offset the increased takeout, and the rest, you know the ones that understand that you have to pay to be entertained, well they will just pay more. After all seats to a Yankees game, or Lakers game or even your local movies are going up all the time. Racing has every right to raise it's prices too. As far as the saps are concerned, you know the ones that bring their family to the track for a day of entertainment, who cares about them, they don't even know what the takeout is and means. They are being entertained.

Meanwhile the public supports this small group of Whales/sharps in the name of entertainment. Not only will they(public) lose long term but they have no idea what odds they are getting on any bet they make. That 4-1 sure looked attractive while they were loading the gate, of course when the horse wins, the payoff is typically about $6.20. But remember they are saps. They probably think that they are smart because they knew when the horse was 4-1 that he was the most probable winner and had the smarts to bet him anyway. Moreover, that longshot winner they might have bet at 20-1+ was only 13-1 as they were loading the gate and unbeknownst to them, he was going to jump to 30-1 after the race went off. Our player now has the joy of saying "if I had only known he was going to be 30-1, I might have bet him, I am so smart".

Now let's talk numbers. I will ignore breakage. Assume 10 billion is the typical American handle(it is about 7 or 8 % more than that). Whales/sharps account for 20% of those pools(personally I think it is more-but I think that was the number thrown around in another discussion). Blended takeout is around 20% or 2 billion. The Whales/sharps blended loss on all bets is maybe 3%(pre rebate). The Whales/Sharps will lose .3 Billion. Thus the takeout for the public is losing 1.97 billion/8 billion bet so the public is losing about 24.6%. With all the lines ironed out as I discussed above, they are going to lose 20-30% on the dollar typically depending on their skill level.

Now what happen if racing were to shift to a 8% wps, 10 % exacta and 12%
exotic takeout. Obviously these numbers are an educated guess but I feel the reduction in takeout will lead to a wash as far as how much the Whales bet(they would now have to make a profit instead of a loss to win but the lower take gives them ample opportunities to do so. Assuming the first year the public bets 10 billion again (obviously all numbers would go up proportionately very quickly), the whales will bet their same 2 billion. So now the blended takout would be 10%, the Whales would make 5% on their
2 billion or .1 billion and the takeout would be 1 billion+.1 billion(whales profit)/8 billion or 1.1/8 or a blended takeout of about 13.75% for the public. Given the betting options racing offers, racing would transform from being one of the worst gambles for most to being amongst the best gambles for most. 13.75% takeout with all the entrants in a horse race and betting options in raceing is certainly on par with a 4.5% takeout in a 2 team sporting event in my opinion. Unbeatale games aren't even in the conversation.


Would this make everybody a winner, hell no Far from it.. But it will give the sharpest a mountain they can climb, not Mount Everest. It will give the public very fun game that they will lose their money at a reasonable rate not like they are being pick pocketed every time they walk up to a betting window. The more the public gets back, the more in turn they can churn, the longer they are able to stay in the game and want to stay in the game. The sharpest in the crowd is able to climb the mountain and starts betting more and more over time. The more the public bets the more whales are able to bet. Without rebates crw doesn't knock all the potential profit out of the game and best of all the odds shifts while still there are not nearly as big as they currently are. Everybody wins and no not a trophy. They win with a game that is fun again for everyone. Best of all, ultimately racing reaches height is could have never reached otherwise (and I mean profit wise not just handle wise) .........Then of course I wake up and I look at todays product :puke:

To anyone who thinks I am wrong about excessive takeout and rebates, I ask, how long can you subject your core fan base to 20 to 30 % roi losses before you chase them away? If they are millionaires than yes it is entertainment and they probably don't care. But most millionaires did not get that way by being stupid and subjecting themselves to being ripped off. . But for the masses who are living paycheck to paycheck, is there any place for horse race betting with an expected loss of 20 to 30%. How to you call that competing? What are they losing betting sports, or playing poker or blackjack or slots? 2%, 5%, 10%?

As far as breakage, it is completly idiotic and just another tax on the consumer. If the sport really wanted to grow the first thing they would do is to eliminate breakage. If the payout is 6.57, it is not rocket science for the clerk to pay out $6.00 plus a 57 cent voucher. At the end of the day the bettors cash in all their vouchers.


To racing's credit they have pretty much kept their fan base up. Since 2008 there on track attendance is about the same year to year.

According to the jockey club here are the year to year handle stats

http://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=8


However from 2008 to 2016 on track handle dipped 30% (maybe people on track betting with ADWS acccounting for some of this, but off track handle has dipped 20%). Now I doubt whales are betting less, I assume that they are betting more, so I assume that with that 20% drop in off track handle there is a greater than 20% loss in revenues(some whales get their deals directly with the host track). Now it does seem to have bottomed out. 2011 to 2016 off track handle is about the same year to year. Revenues/profits obviously I am not privy to. Maybe in racing's eyes they feel they have won the battle. Obviously don't know about 2017, but 2011 to 2016 was fairly consistent.

My argument is that if racing was done correctly it would be beatable, legal and extremely easy access (the last 2 it has). You dont have to drive to a casino, bet illegally with an offshore bookmaker or a corner bookie (all this might change of course and then racing will really be up the creek), and you don't have to be a computer geek to compete as I assume you do in DFS (I would rather watch paint dry then participate in DFS-so I know little about it). Funding is a piece of cake. For that reason racing should be head of the class (something that for some reason escapes this industry) and the only thing that keeps it from succeeding is the fact that only a tiny percentage of people playing the game have any chance of utilizing it's biggest strength of being beatable. All because of one stupid decision they hang onto year after year after year................rebates.

But back to the post I am responding to. What kind of legitimate business would run a gambling game and make their fan base suckers, especially in a pari mutuel game that there sole job is the run the races, make sure everything is fair, and pay out the winners ("Hey I have a poker game tonight, 9 guys will be there, but the game will be rigged so that only me and my buddy Joe will win, want to join us") But racing has basically set up a rigged game. It is not rigged in outcomes being fixed but it certainly is rigged so that the masses have virtually no chance of winning long term (unless they hit a major score) and will typically lose well beyond the takeout.

Forget the stupidity of what they are doing, what they are doing is downright criminal (not in a legal sense) but in a moral sense. We organize a
boycott because a track raises it's takeout, but when the track sets up a
playing field that is comepletey unfair to the masses(and we have had this for what 20 years now), we don't say a peep. "Adapt or Die", "Get your own rebates", "Build your own CRW" , "move to another state" "they can get rebates too they just need to be smarter" "they will just blow their money on the slot machines anyhow". I know the last time I brought up moraility in this forum it went over splendidly, but think about it anyhow (and then you can clean up the coffee that just splurted out of your mouth).

Andy Asaro
02-05-2018, 03:32 PM
I don't have a problem with their wagering methods or goals. They are taking advantage of the environment in place. Who wouldn't do the same if they could?

I would. You would. We all would.

We would all like to be the Tom Brady of the NFL too...or the LeBron James of the NBA...but there are only a few of those types of successful athletes...

I'm not blaming the people I'm blaming the industry and it's one of the things that must be changed to grow the game IMO

thaskalos
02-05-2018, 03:34 PM
Question...how do you think these operations are able to get their bets in "after the rest of us?"

Clearly, you don't think they're actually betting after the race goes off....do you?

If not, then they aren't actually getting it in AFTER the rest of us.

So what do you think they are doing? Putting the bet in when half the gate is loaded? Do they have timed algorithms for each track...so when a certain percentage of the gate is loaded, they put the bet in...

How do you think they do it?

These are genuine questions I have for those who keep telling me they are getting their bets in after the rest of us.

I don't know how they are doing it...but I see it being done. When I place my bet as late as I am capable of placing it, and the odds on my horse are 6-1, and I see the odds change to 4-1 as the horses are rounding into the stretch, and 3-1 when my horse is heading to the winners circle...am I wrong in deducing that certain bettors were able to place their bets AFTER I placed mine? I honestly think that "the rest of us" are operating under a wagering time-delay...which the mega-bettors are allowed to bypass.

thaskalos
02-05-2018, 03:38 PM
I don't have a problem with their wagering methods or goals. They are taking advantage of the environment in place. Who wouldn't do the same if they could?

I would. You would. We all would.

We would all like to be the Tom Brady of the NFL too...or the LeBron James of the NBA...but there are only a few of those types of successful athletes...

I don't blame the whales either. I blame the TRACKS...for not knowing which side their bread is buttered on. They went to bed with the whales...at the risk of losing the "rest of us". But, HEY...maybe they could interest us in their slots. :rolleyes:

thaskalos
02-05-2018, 03:49 PM
In my corporate career, I was an asset securitization (a way to move/fund assets off of a company's balance sheet) specialist for money center banks and investment banks. When counseling senior treasury execs about the pros/cons I'd point out that once you start securitization you can't stop because the (accounting) gains you recognize up front turn into losses as the bonds pay down. I believe CAW is similar. Racing got hooked on the gains (as a way to stabilize falling handle) and now can't quit it because handle would fall to $6 billion.

And I use my real name because I'm not afraid to. I never hide behind fake names. Ever. I'm not saying that's always been wise but I'm not afraid to say something and have everyone know I said it.

I'd like to put what you've said here to a test. As it happens, I too have become friendly with someone who is part of a "Whale operation"...and he tells me that these whales are not being charged the breakage that the rest of us bettors are forced to pay. Is this "knowledgeable" friend of mine telling me the TRUTH...or is he lying to me? And, if he is telling me the truth...is this a "fair advantage" for the Whale to have?

PaceAdvantage
02-05-2018, 03:55 PM
Big customers always get better treatment...back in the grocery days, if a big time customer/supplier of yours wanted something nobody else was getting, bet you thought long and hard about giving it to them, right?

Poindexter
02-05-2018, 03:57 PM
I'd like to put what you've said here to a test. As it happens, I too have become friendly with someone who is part of a "Whale operation"...and he tells me that these whales are not being charged the breakage that the rest of us bettors are forced to pay. Is this "knowledgeable" friend of mine telling me the TRUTH...or is he lying to me? And, if he is telling me the truth...is this a "fair advantage" for the Whale to have?

:popcorn::popcorn::popcorn:

thaskalos
02-05-2018, 03:59 PM
Big customers always get better treatment...back in the grocery days, if a big time customer/supplier of yours wanted something nobody else was getting, bet you thought long and hard about giving it to them, right?

The Whales get their "deep discount" when they get their REBATES. Do they need to have their breakage-charge waived too? :rolleyes:

And, when I ran my grocery stores...ALL my customers knew about the discounts available for the "wholesale" customers. I didn't operate "under-the table"...like the racing industry does. :ThmbDown:

Ian Meyers
02-05-2018, 04:16 PM
I'd like to put what you've said here to a test. As it happens, I too have become friendly with someone who is part of a "Whale operation"...and he tells me that these whales are not being charged the breakage that the rest of us bettors are forced to pay. Is this "knowledgeable" friend of mine telling me the TRUTH...or is he lying to me? And, if he is telling me the truth...is this a "fair advantage" for the Whale to have?


None of the teams that I know get back breakage. Can it be negotiated? Maybe if you agree to bet $250 million a year or something in that range. If anyone reading this can bet even 1/10th that amount I can get you some pretty strong rebates. ;)



As far as APIs go, I don't know why they would be considered "dirty." We made them available at PTC (I don't know if they do any more) and at America's ADW when I ran that one. I'm sure a number of ADWs still make them available for you to write to. For everyone? No, there is some cost to maintaining it and it can use up bandwidth so typically the ADWs will set some minimums. That's not unreasonable to me.

GMB@BP
02-05-2018, 04:21 PM
Pretty good Poindexter,

never seen "suckers" extrapolated to that degree, but well done...well done indeed:headbanger:

GMB@BP
02-05-2018, 04:23 PM
Hey I remember PTC....I was with them before they threw you in jail in AZ for betting on horses, I remember getting a rebate, even for my small play.

Dont think I can go back there in Arizona but hey, at least one time I was a cool kid with the rebate.

thaskalos
02-05-2018, 04:36 PM
None of the teams that I know get back breakage. Can it be negotiated? Maybe if you agree to bet $250 million a year or something in that range. If anyone reading this can bet even 1/10th that amount I can get you some pretty strong rebates. ;)



As far as APIs go, I don't know why they would be considered "dirty." We made them available at PTC (I don't know if they do any more) and at America's ADW when I ran that one. I'm sure a number of ADWs still make them available for you to write to. For everyone? No, there is some cost to maintaining it and it can use up bandwidth so typically the ADWs will set some minimums. That's not unreasonable to me.

Mr. Meyers...my friend is part of a small operation, containing only a couple of PhDs. In fact, to put it in his own words to me: "30 PhDs on one team sounds to me as truthful as if Trump had said it. You couldn't get 30 math PhDs to agree on what to order for lunch, let alone how to model horse racing".

He is on a small team, and yet this team is operating without a breakage charge...a fact which makes me shudder at the thought of what other "clandestine" agreements the big teams are operating under in this game.

cj
02-05-2018, 05:02 PM
Pretty good Poindexter,

never seen "suckers" extrapolated to that degree, but well done...well done indeed:headbanger:

Agree, very good post. I'm not a whale, never have been, but I used to bet easily five times what I do these days, even ten times as much some years.

The value just isn't there any more. The fields suck most of the time. Races aren't nearly as competitive as they used to be. The majority of races are too restrictive. The aren't written for bettors but for horsemen. The rules for claiming races have been destroyed to the detriment of bettors. The claiming price / purse ratio is a joke these days, further encouraging noncompetitive racing. There is too much slot money flowing to purses and that limits the importance of betting handle. No racing secretary is trying to write races that will drive betting, unless of course it is on a gimmick bet like the Rainbow 6 or Super High 5. I'll save those blights on the game for another day.

When the takeout is as high as it is, there are not many overlays to be found. It has gotten worse as the races have gotten less competitive. When you add in CRW and the rebates, the overlay is an endangered species. I stick to mostly stakes races and quality allowance and maiden races where I still think I have a chance and have done reasonably well doing so. I still love horse racing, but frankly I'm not entertained enough to watch horses running around in a circle that I feel the need to bet most of the races. Making bad wagers is not the least bit entertaining for me. Neither is donating money to these whales and computer teams. When I get the itch to bet a few hundred dollars on a weekday card, I generally decide to make better use of the money and give to some of the horse rescue operations out there.

Of course I still follow the sport closely. I'm fascinated by figure making at all racing levels and I do find that entertaining. I love watching the best horses develop and see what they can accomplish, both numerically and in actual accomplishments. But until things change, my handle is not going back up, and will probably slide even farther. I know several others that have done the same as me, including some from this board. They still love the game, but betting has been cut way, way back. We've realized that in most races we are the sucker at the table.

thaskalos
02-05-2018, 05:30 PM
Agree, very good post. I'm not a whale, never have been, but I used to bet easily five times what I do these days, even ten times as much some years.

The value just isn't there any more. The fields suck most of the time. Races aren't nearly as competitive as they used to be. The majority of races are too restrictive. The aren't written for bettors but for horsemen. The rules for claiming races have been destroyed to the detriment of bettors. The claiming price / purse ratio is a joke these days, further encouraging noncompetitive racing. There is too much slot money flowing to purses and that limits the importance of betting handle. No racing secretary is trying to write races that will drive betting, unless of course it is on a gimmick bet like the Rainbow 6 or Super High 5. I'll save those blights on the game for another day.

When the takeout is as high as it is, there are not many overlays to be found. It has gotten worse as the races have gotten less competitive. When you add in CRW and the rebates, the overlay is an endangered species. I stick to mostly stakes races and quality allowance and maiden races where I still think I have a chance and have done reasonably well doing so. I still love horse racing, but frankly I'm not entertained enough to watch horses running around in a circle that I feel the need to bet most of the races. Making bad wagers is not the least bit entertaining for me. Neither is donating money to these whales and computer teams. When I get the itch to bet a few hundred dollars on a weekday card, I generally decide to make better use of the money and give to some of the horse rescue operations out there.

Of course I still follow the sport closely. I'm fascinated by figure making at all racing levels and I do find that entertaining. I love watching the best horses develop and see what they can accomplish, both numerically and in actual accomplishments. But until things change, my handle is not going back up, and will probably slide even farther. I know several others that have done the same as me, including some from this board. They still love the game, but betting has been cut way, way back. We've realized that in most races we are the sucker at the table.

:ThmbUp:

I still "love the game"...but hate the game-handlers. I used to love betting horses during the weekdays...because it allowed me to indulge in my "passion" while freeing up the weekend for my family obligations. Now, the weekday racing throughout the country is hardly worth a second look...even as the purses have reached the stratosphere. The loyal horse-racing fan has been deceived into believing that the higher purses would "improve the game"...when the reality has proven to be the exact opposite.

Since moving to Las Vegas, my betting interest in this game has waned to the point where it can no longer compete with the interest that I've developed for the other gambling games that are offered here. And, to my surprise, I have discovered that the "intellectual stimulation", which I originally thought only horse-racing could provide, is easily carried over into the other gambling games...when you pursue them "seriously enough". I had as much "fun" cheering for my Eagles-bet yesterday, as I ever remember having at the track.

Is it easy winning money at the other gambling games offered out there? Of course not! But you don't feel like such a "sucker", when you lose.

Ian Meyers
02-05-2018, 06:10 PM
Mr. Meyers...my friend is part of a small operation, containing only a couple of PhDs. In fact, to put it in his own words to me: "30 PhDs on one team sounds to me as truthful as if Trump had said it. You couldn't get 30 math PhDs to agree on what to order for lunch, let alone how to model horse racing".



Really? The biggest teams have more than 100 employees, most of them with PHDs.

Who said they need to agree on everything? There are partners, senior non-partners and junior non-partners. The most senior execs (Partners) drive the bus like in every other for-profit organization and the less senior take direction from them. There are dozens of PHDs at Fair,Issac. They're not all equal.



Having been on the other side of the fence and having seen the average gambling performance of customers this entire discussion is amusing to me in a lot of ways. Many were losing at 30% or more yet I'd see them on PA and other forums bitching about how their rebates weren't high enough or complaining about breakage.

I came back to post only because Andy, whom I respect, asked me to. I don't need the nonsense, I enjoy what I do and I work with some great people. Everything else is just noise to me.

thaskalos
02-05-2018, 06:20 PM
Really? The biggest teams have more than 100 employees, most of them with PHDs.

Who said they need to agree on everything? There are partners, senior non-partners and junior non-partners. The most senior execs (Partners) drive the bus like in every other for-profit organization and the less senior take direction from them. There are dozens of PHDs at Fair,Issac. They're not all equal.

Having been on the other side of the fence and having seen the average gambling performance of customers this entire discussion is amusing to me in a lot of ways. Many were losing at 30% or more yet I'd see them on PA and other forums bitching about how their rebates weren't high enough or complaining about breakage...

Yes, many of us are losing 30% or more, but we would still like to get those rebates that are available to some...so we could reduce our loss. And, when we look into the local rebate-ADWs, like BetPTC...we see that the sites exclude more U.S. states than they allow. Do we have to relocate, or buy another home in an "allowed state"...before we can get a decent rebate in this game? In which department of the horse-racing "industry" can we get answers to these questions?

Poindexter
02-05-2018, 06:53 PM
Really? The biggest teams have more than 100 employees, most of them with PHDs.

Who said they need to agree on everything? There are partners, senior non-partners and junior non-partners. The most senior execs (Partners) drive the bus like in every other for-profit organization and the less senior take direction from them. There are dozens of PHDs at Fair,Issac. They're not all equal.



Having been on the other side of the fence and having seen the average gambling performance of customers this entire discussion is amusing to me in a lot of ways. Many were losing at 30% or more yet I'd see them on PA and other forums bitching about how their rebates weren't high enough or complaining about breakage.

I came back to post only because Andy, whom I respect, asked me to. I don't need the nonsense, I enjoy what I do and I work with some great people. Everything else is just noise to me.


Thank you Ian. In my post that I concluded that aside from breakage:

the typical player with all the lines ironed out is going to lose 20-30% on the dollar typically depending on their skill level.

You just proved me right. Thank you.

Your attitude comes off as pretty arrogant. You didn't seem to happy about the Breders Cup Challenge when it looks like you were the sucker on the table, but now that you are representing the groups that are taking advantage (not blaming them or you, but that is what they are doing) of the betting public, you seem pretty cool with it. Interesting.

castaway01
02-05-2018, 06:57 PM
Yes, many of us are losing 30% or more, but we would still like to get those rebates that are available to some...so we could reduce our loss. And, when we look into the local rebate-ADWs, like BetPTC...we see that the sites exclude more U.S. states than they allow. Do we have to relocate, or buy another home in an "allowed state"...before we can get a decent rebate in this game? In which department of the horse-racing "industry" can we get answers to these questions?

It's funny you mention that, but I had a conversation through private messages a few years back with someone who is well respected here (not someone who posted in this thread yet though) and when I asked about rebates, that was exactly what he told me---that I should move to a state where I had better chances at rebates---that or use a friend's address and get rebates that way. And while it was no doubt good advice if I wanted to dedicate my life to making a profit at horse racing, I thought (and still do) that if that's what it takes to win in this game, we're pretty much screwed.

And to be clear, I'm not begrudging the people who have the best technology and most knowledge their success. But with massive takeout, shrinking field sizes, and all of the other gambling options in the world, these organizations' ability to take value from the pools is just another reason not to play at more than a very casual level. Obviously racing is tied to these players' handle and can't break free now, but eventually we'll just have a handful of whales swimming around in a mud puddle.

Andy Asaro
02-05-2018, 07:41 PM
Really? The biggest teams have more than 100 employees, most of them with PHDs.

Who said they need to agree on everything? There are partners, senior non-partners and junior non-partners. The most senior execs (Partners) drive the bus like in every other for-profit organization and the less senior take direction from them. There are dozens of PHDs at Fair,Issac. They're not all equal.



Having been on the other side of the fence and having seen the average gambling performance of customers this entire discussion is amusing to me in a lot of ways. Many were losing at 30% or more yet I'd see them on PA and other forums bitching about how their rebates weren't high enough or complaining about breakage.

I came back to post only because Andy, whom I respect, asked me to. I don't need the nonsense, I enjoy what I do and I work with some great people. Everything else is just noise to me.

Appreciate it Ian. You've always been a straight shooter.

VigorsTheGrey
02-05-2018, 08:08 PM
Really? The biggest teams have more than 100 employees, most of them with PHDs.

Who said they need to agree on everything? There are partners, senior non-partners and junior non-partners. The most senior execs (Partners) drive the bus like in every other for-profit organization and the less senior take direction from them. There are dozens of PHDs at Fair,Issac. They're not all equal.



Having been on the other side of the fence and having seen the average gambling performance of customers this entire discussion is amusing to me in a lot of ways. Many were losing at 30% or more yet I'd see them on PA and other forums bitching about how their rebates weren't high enough or complaining about breakage.

I came back to post only because Andy, whom I respect, asked me to. I don't need the nonsense, I enjoy what I do and I work with some great people. Everything else is just noise to me.

I think it is safe to say that 99% of the posters here at PA are not whales and will likely NEVER be whales for a number of reasons...it would be interesting to know the details of their operations...I mean having 30 to 100 PHDís in tandem is pretty amazing...one might think this enterprise is addressing the complexity of the Manhattan Project:rolleyes: I mean really, how complex can it be to warrant millions of $ modeling and years of prep before making a single bet...I find myself doing ok just as a single player, picking up a form and making a few bets...sometimes I win, a lot of times I lose but I donít intend to make my racing experience just a ďmeans to an endĒ of making money, coldly and detached which it seems like these Teams do...for them, it really isnít about the racing at all, is it...? Itís a business venture, a way to line their pockets, one Thread in a Portfolio of ventures, and even if the whales show losses, these losses will be offset by gains in other areas, so it is really just a big game to monopolize the Capital from All Arenas and prevent the plebs from sharing in the wealth...This is the pattern that the Robber Barons have employed for centuries and racing is just another arena where these Manhatten and Imperial plutocrats are dominant....horse racing being the long time pleasure fest of royalty....same old game, same old masters...only now the plebs are waking up and learning that they no longer need to be the breadwinners for a class of lazy Aristocrats and to continue to contribute to the already swollen Oligopoly of racing...

green80
02-05-2018, 09:43 PM
I read the stories all the time about a horse that is 13/1 at post and when the race is over he's 5/1. In this game if a horse gets hammered with late money doesn't another horse (or horses) have to go up in odds? I never hear a story about a guys horse that was 5/1 at post and when they crossed the wire he was 13/1. Seems like it's got to happen. When odds on some horse or horses go down others have to go up. If these bot guys are so good that they only pick winners, they don't need rebates to get rich. Surely we can't all be betting on the same horse.

Also if this bot betting bothers you, you can take your business to a less bot friendly track. The bot guys shouldn't be a problem at some of the lower rebate or no rebate tracks if these guys are depending on rebates to be profitable.

GMB@BP
02-05-2018, 09:49 PM
Also if this bot betting bothers you, you can take your business to a less bot friendly track. The bot guys shouldn't be a problem at some of the lower rebate or no rebate tracks if these guys are depending on rebates to be profitable.

I think our point is that people have taken their gambling money elsewhere.

PaceAdvantage
02-05-2018, 10:07 PM
Really? The biggest teams have more than 100 employees, most of them with PHDs.

Who said they need to agree on everything? There are partners, senior non-partners and junior non-partners. The most senior execs (Partners) drive the bus like in every other for-profit organization and the less senior take direction from them. There are dozens of PHDs at Fair,Issac. They're not all equal.



Having been on the other side of the fence and having seen the average gambling performance of customers this entire discussion is amusing to me in a lot of ways. Many were losing at 30% or more yet I'd see them on PA and other forums bitching about how their rebates weren't high enough or complaining about breakage.

I came back to post only because Andy, whom I respect, asked me to. I don't need the nonsense, I enjoy what I do and I work with some great people. Everything else is just noise to me.Ian, you have my sympathy.

People will believe whatever the hell they want to believe, the truth be damned. We see it everywhere...maybe people have always been this delusional...hell, maybe I'm that delusional in some areas of my life.

I appreciate you taking the time to at least TRY and set some of the record straight...but as the old saying goes, with some people, you could tell them the winner before the race, and they'd still find a way to lose.

PaceAdvantage
02-05-2018, 10:08 PM
Your attitude comes off as pretty arrogant. You didn't seem to happy about the Breders Cup Challenge when it looks like you were the sucker on the table, but now that you are representing the groups that are taking advantage (not blaming them or you, but that is what they are doing) of the betting public, you seem pretty cool with it. Interesting.ARROGANT? The guy comes here, by request, and tells it like he knows it, like he's worked it, and like he's lived it...has used his real name in posting here...and we still have people DOUBTING and QUESTIONING and basically calling him a LIAR (none of them using their real names by the way).

I'd be "arrogant" too...but I wouldn't use the word arrogant. I'd use something a lot stronger.

PaceAdvantage
02-05-2018, 10:11 PM
I think it is safe to say that 99% of the posters here at PA are not whales and will likely NEVER be whales for a number of reasons...it would be interesting to know the details of their operations...I mean having 30 to 100 PHD’s in tandem is pretty amazing...one might think this enterprise is addressing the complexity of the Manhattan Project:rolleyes: I mean really, how complex can it be to warrant millions of $ modeling and years of prep before making a single bet...I find myself doing ok just as a single player, picking up a form and making a few bets...sometimes I win, a lot of times I lose but I don’t intend to make my racing experience just a “means to an end” of making money, coldly and detached which it seems like these Teams do...for them, it really isn’t about the racing at all, is it...? It’s a business venture, a way to line their pockets, one Thread in a Portfolio of ventures, and even if the whales show losses, these losses will be offset by gains in other areas, so it is really just a big game to monopolize the Capital from All Arenas and prevent the plebs from sharing in the wealth...This is the pattern that the Robber Barons have employed for centuries and racing is just another arena where these Manhatten and Imperial plutocrats are dominant....horse racing being the long time pleasure fest of royalty....same old game, same old masters...only now the plebs are waking up and learning that they no longer need to be the breadwinners for a class of lazy Aristocrats and to continue to contribute to the already swollen Oligopoly of racing...AGAIN...AGAIN...you gonna cry to me now...

JESUS man....wow....

"I'm not doubting you but..." :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

HOLY SHIT MAN....TROLL CITY


"addressing the complexity of the Manhattan Project" ROLL EYES EMOTICON

really man?

To someone like you, it might as well be as complex as the Manhattan project.

I can not...for the life of me...believe the SHIT I am reading in response to Ian's posts....

Sad man....just sad...I understand why you lose at this game. I truly do. And by the way, do they pay you by the word? Do you actually think you sound smart and clever with these stupid replies day after day after day...oy vey man...

I now understand why others have thrown in the towel...and it ain't because of the PHD's making their last minute bets on the "direct totes"

VigorsTheGrey
02-05-2018, 10:30 PM
AGAIN...AGAIN...you gonna cry to me now...

JESUS man....wow....

"I'm not doubting you but..." :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

HOLY SHIT MAN....TROLL CITY


"addressing the complexity of the Manhattan Project" ROLL EYES EMOTICON

really man?

To someone like you, it might as well be as complex as the Manhattan project.

I can not...for the life of me...believe the SHIT I am reading in response to Ian's posts....

Sad man....just sad...I understand why you lose at this game. I truly do. And by the way, do they pay you by the word? Do you actually think you sound smart and clever with these stupid replies day after day after day...oy vey man...

I now understand why others have thrown in the towel...and it ain't because of the PHD's making their last minute bets on the "direct totes"
You are entitled to your opinion Mike and I respect what you say...I only wish you could see me as a human being that happens to have an individual mind and is willing to express what he thinks...sure, what I write is not run of the mill stuff...but it is hardly stupid, and I am not here to sound clever or smart as you think...I just happen to have strong opinions...If you or Ian would like to share the complexities of what that batteries of PHD’s are working on full time I would be very appreciative...How do these Teams spend their days...what are they working on...? How are there plays made...? What gives them an edge...? How much money are they really making....? Do they care which horse wins...? Which combination comes in....? Details, Details DETAILS....PLEASE...I want to know all about what exactly these Teams are doing...what exactly is the rocket science they are working on that requires such and enormous brain trust to pull it all off...and what is their motivation for doing it...?

PaceAdvantage
02-05-2018, 10:48 PM
You are entitled to your opinion Mike and I respect what you say...I only wish you could see me as a human being that happens to have an individual mind and is willing to express what he thinks...sure, what I write is not run of the mill stuff...but it is hardly stupid, and I am not here to sound clever or smart as you think...I just happen to have strong opinions...If you or Ian would like to share the complexities of what that batteries of PHDís are working on full time I would be very appreciative...How do these Teams spend their days...what are they working on...? How are there plays made...? What gives them an edge...? How much money are they really making....? Do they care which horse wins...? Which combination comes in....? Details, Details DETAILS....PLEASE...I want to know all about what exactly these Teams are doing...what exactly is the rocket science they are working on that requires such and enormous brain trust to pull it all off...and what is their motivation for doing it...?Another troll...like they would tell you? :lol::bang:

Poindexter
02-05-2018, 11:01 PM
ARROGANT? The guy comes here, by request, and tells it like he knows it, like he's worked it, and like he's lived it...has used his real name in posting here...and we still have people DOUBTING and QUESTIONING and basically calling him a LIAR (none of them using their real names by the way).

I'd be "arrogant" too...but I wouldn't use the word arrogant. I'd use something a lot stronger.

First off I believe that it was only Thaskalos that was questioning him. I just found it really interesting that Thaskalos ran into a high volume player that is getting Breakage back on top of rebates (which I personally have a big problem with and Ian doesn't deny that can happen, he just implies that you would have to bet 250 million dollars a year to get it). Then Thaskalos I believe mentioned that was not the case with that group.

Personally I like reading the gossip, but I can't formulate opinion on gossip or hearsay. My hunch is that some of these teams do have this special machine Lambo refers to, that can peak into the pools, but since I do not know Lambo, and nobody else has corroborated that, so I have left it alone.


In every post I made in this thread I assumed what Ian has posted on this forum to be true So personally I have given him nothing but respect.

I just did not like the sound of

Having been on the other side of the fence and having seen the average gambling performance of customers this entire discussion is amusing to me in a lot of ways. Many were losing at 30% or more yet I'd see them on PA and other forums bitching about how their rebates weren't high enough or complaining about breakage.


I take his post along with his prior posts to mean who the **** are you people to be bitching and complaining about rebates and breakage. You want rebates, take out your wallet, cough up 25 million a year in betting capital and I will get you great rebates too. This is the problem with the game not the solution for the game.

This also was a poor representation of this thread which is more about how unplayable this game has become (most think it is because of bots, I think it is because of rebates/coupled with the bots, but mainly rebates).

This is why I considered his posting to be arrogant. Maybe it comes off wrong in print (that happens), but it sounded arrogant to me., so I called him on it.

I know you are a survival of the fittest type of guy, which is cool.But when guys like CJ and Tom and Thaskalos are all saying that this game is virtually unplayable now, people need to take heed. It isn't going to get better on its own.

VigorsTheGrey
02-05-2018, 11:02 PM
Another troll...like they would tell you? :lol::bang:why shouldnít they tell us...itís not like I am going to go out there and wager millions of $ís...they have little competition, thatís what an oligarchy is....and remember it is NOT THAT I DONT BELIEVE WHAT IAN IS SAYING because I DO and that is what is so troubling because, think about it, if these TEAMS through their brain trust have indeed figured out how to beat not just a race, but THE RACES as well, then what does that mean for the rest of us.....? That our bets are just, ultimately, their profits....so why continue betting....against THAT...?

Ian leaves little for me to doubt that he is working with said TEAMS and that they ARE PROFITABLE which means that what they are doing is WORKING AS MODELLED....

IT MAKES NO SENSE AT ALL FOR ME TO CONTINUE BETTING IN COMPETITION WITH TEAMS OF ďRINGERSĒ....

Can you UNDERSTAND THAT...?

PaceAdvantage
02-05-2018, 11:08 PM
Yes, I can understand it...so what?

You either adapt or you die. Class guys had to do it when speed figs came out.

Now you have to find a way to be profitable against the CRWs...if indeed you think they are the cause of your losses.

I personally think CRWs are the least of my worries when it comes to beating this game.

PaceAdvantage
02-05-2018, 11:10 PM
Wild swings like this don't happen in the financial markets.Perfect timing for the above post, wouldn't you say Molson? LOL

Check out this guy's posts on the market action today...sound familiar? It should...sounds like a lot of guys in this thread...so I guess the same type of thing IS happening in the market, if you put stock in Denninger's words (HFT=High Frequency Trading aka trading BOTS):

http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=232923

ultracapper
02-05-2018, 11:22 PM
Another troll...like they would tell you? :lol::bang:

This reminds me when I was a real greenhorn, those first couple years all those decades ago. This stake winning 3yo at Longacres started his 4yo year 0fer4 or 5, and then, bang, he runs back to his 3yo form. I'm bitching and screaming fix, fix, fix, and some guy out of nowhere gets sick of me, and yells at me so that about 1,000 people can hear, "Something's been bugging the horse for awhile. They figured it out. I'm sure they're sorry they didn't come looking for you to let you know." Literally 1,000 people LAUGHING THEIR ASSES OFF!!!!

Do you have any idea how humiliating it is to a 20 year old drunk punk to be shown up like that? I still squeeze my head every time I think about it. One of the most embarrassing moments of my life.

ultracapper
02-05-2018, 11:33 PM
Appreciate it Ian. You've always been a straight shooter.

I second this. Solid contribution, whether it's totally digestible to everybody or not. There isn't a thing about it that I find unbelievable. When you churn as much as some of these teams churn, there's plenty to go around and make it worth the time everybody involved.

I wonder if Ian knows Cratos.

ultracapper
02-05-2018, 11:45 PM
There are a lot of smart people on this board. I know a number of them, that if they would just relax, and look at this with fresh eyes, and learning more and more how these operations work, would see the holes they leave open. To each of their actions, there is a reaction. These teams aren't winning every nickel being bet. And it's more than just crumbs that are left. And to green80, yes, if you pay attention, you will see many winners every day that enter the gate at 5/1 and win at 6 or 7, even 8 and 9 sometimes. You see it ALL THE TIME. It's really the shorter priced horses that take the beating from these outfits on a regular basis. The 13/1 down to 5/1 is dramatic, and honestly, a seldom occurrence. It's maddening as hell to see your 6/1 gate horse pay $9.60, but that is something we have to live with from time to time.

JustRalph
02-06-2018, 02:03 AM
So just to sum it up....

If you play into these pools and are not getting a rebate your pretty much a sucker?

That light bulb went off in my head and that was the day I quit

Andy Asaro
02-06-2018, 08:05 AM
Yes, I can understand it...so what?

You either adapt or you die. Class guys had to do it when speed figs came out.

Now you have to find a way to be profitable against the CRWs...if indeed you think they are the cause of your losses.

I personally think CRWs are the least of my worries when it comes to beating this game.

It is one of the biggest issues in the game.

biggestal99
02-06-2018, 08:14 AM
Really...this IS true isn't it...? Has racing really come to this...?

Automated betting programs that use arbitrage programs to find and "recover" the net value in a race no matter who wins...No wonder wagering is going down the tubes for the little guys...SUCKS BIG TIME. BAN THEM.

The Bots at Betfair are really good. I was look at a chalk the other day at Turf Paradise. Huge over lay at 2.66 (8-5). I keep on betting and betting.
Price finally started to descend rapidly. went off at evens at Betfair. 3-5 on the tote. aired.

Allan

castaway01
02-06-2018, 08:30 AM
There are a lot of smart people on this board. I know a number of them, that if they would just relax, and look at this with fresh eyes, and learning more and more how these operations work, would see the holes they leave open. To each of their actions, there is a reaction. These teams aren't winning every nickel being bet. And it's more than just crumbs that are left. And to green80, yes, if you pay attention, you will see many winners every day that enter the gate at 5/1 and win at 6 or 7, even 8 and 9 sometimes. You see it ALL THE TIME. It's really the shorter priced horses that take the beating from these outfits on a regular basis. The 13/1 down to 5/1 is dramatic, and honestly, a seldom occurrence. It's maddening as hell to see your 6/1 gate horse pay $9.60, but that is something we have to live with from time to time.

I think that's talking about something different though. From everything I've read on this site about late wagering/bots, they're not burying the favorite in the win pool late. They're betting $200 on the 6-2 exacta, and $50 on the 4-5 exacta, and 50 other bets that are all designed to in total come close to breaking even (with the bettor turning a profit through a big rebate). I've seen horses go up in odds late and win too, but to me that's different than computer wagering bots sucking up most of the overlaid exotics combinations on a regular basis.

Tom
02-06-2018, 08:49 AM
You either adapt or you die. Class guys had to do it when speed figs came out.

Difference is that figs did not alter the mechanics of the game at all. Figs are reasonably available to everyone, or they can be made by anyone.

Getting an edge within the game is one thing, having private access to it is another.

For me, i would NEVER consider betting at my former levels no matter what racing ever does. The industry has proven to me beyond any doubt to be run by crooks and incompetent at every level. Nothing racing can do will ever restore its credibility to me.

And I really don't give a crap either.

For God's sake, the MORONS can't freaking tell time!!!!
No one will ever convince me that high rollers are getting access to timing data NOT released to the public. Nod nod, wink wink.

PaceAdvantage
02-06-2018, 08:51 AM
Getting an edge within the game is one thing, having private access to it is another.With all due respect, this "private access" or "direct tote" people keep talking about is way overblown and not anywhere close to what you believe it is...

I have private access too...it's called my ADW.

Andy Asaro
02-06-2018, 09:47 AM
Late odds drops are more extreme than ever. The ability to send a huge batch that distorts the odds is a major problem. And the reality that the biggest gamblers with massive rebates (much higher than average rebates) are distorting the odds at the last second that produce odds changes well into the race is unacceptable to me and many others. If there wasn't the huge incentive of getting rebates on losing wagers much of this would stop. They would have to significantly change their model. Time to bend the curve back to where it's a fair gamble for EVERYONE.

GMB@BP
02-06-2018, 09:52 AM
Yes, I can understand it...so what?

You either adapt or you die. Class guys had to do it when speed figs came out.

Now you have to find a way to be profitable against the CRWs...if indeed you think they are the cause of your losses.

I personally think CRWs are the least of my worries when it comes to beating this game.

I think people are leaving the game, maybe you dont see it that way, maybe its hidden by these CRW handle teams, but this sport is not doing well in my opinion from a gambling perspective. You say change, I believe people are adapting....by going elsewhere.

PaceAdvantage
02-06-2018, 10:48 AM
Of course people are leaving the game...they've been leaving the game for 50-60-70 years...

If the CRW teams and the whales NEVER EXISTED, I dare say the game would be on extreme life-support right now, existing in only the biggest markets.

So it's kind of a catch-22...you kill the whales now, you really kill the handle and you kill the game even more. And if the whales never existed, the declining fan base would have happened anyway (since it was already happening before the whales and CRWs)...thus the sport would still be screwed.

So what to do?

GMB@BP
02-06-2018, 12:17 PM
Of course people are leaving the game...they've been leaving the game for 50-60-70 years...

If the CRW teams and the whales NEVER EXISTED, I dare say the game would be on extreme life-support right now, existing in only the biggest markets.

So it's kind of a catch-22...you kill the whales now, you really kill the handle and you kill the game even more. And if the whales never existed, the declining fan base would have happened anyway (since it was already happening before the whales and CRWs)...thus the sport would still be screwed.

So what to do?

yea, i agree

but the prop it up with a crutch rather than fix the real problem never is going to end well, just draws out the final outcome.

fiznow
02-06-2018, 01:10 PM
One problem is how to adapt it. Atm it's rather a question of luck when you bet into the pools. Good luck = the odds of your horse rise, bad luck = the odds of your horse drop. Nobody knows which horse the bot will bet down, probably not even the whales know it.
What I don't get is why they have to bomb the pools in the very last second. This seems craven and unfair. I don't think it would make much difference if some parts of the smaller bets came in after the whales action. The 2$, 10$ and not even the 100$ bettors will change the odds dramatically. The whales change the odds, so they should give the horse players a chance to react to these odds. Or wager at an offshore bookie where they don't influence the odds.

Btw i think this is somehow similar to what these whales are doing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage_betting

Poindexter
02-06-2018, 01:28 PM
Of course people are leaving the game...they've been leaving the game for 50-60-70 years...

If the CRW teams and the whales NEVER EXISTED, I dare say the game would be on extreme life-support right now, existing in only the biggest markets.

So it's kind of a catch-22...you kill the whales now, you really kill the handle and you kill the game even more. And if the whales never existed, the declining fan base would have happened anyway (since it was already happening before the whales and CRWs)...thus the sport would still be screwed.

So what to do?


I answered that earlier and I have been answering that question for 3 years. You lower take to 8-10-12 percent and eliminate all rebates and the Whales will still feed, and the fish will be playing a game that they consider fair and will stick around. A good portion of the fish will probaby delude themselve into thinking they are winning when they are not. Amongst the non whlaes will be a large group of Players that will become earners. Players that might make 3 to 7% roi each year(they can't do it in todays game without big rebates but they will be able to do it in the game I propose). Yes these players will make the game worse for the fish, but that is the game we play. The game in it's natural state is sustainable. The game altered with rebates is not. It is obviously sustainable for quite a while, because this has been going on for close to 20 years, but I think we have finallly reaching the point where the next 20 years is going to be a heck of a lot more challenging then the last 20. Especially if the kind of talent that Ian is talking about is going to enter the game.

Why exactly should the fan base be declining? Why should betting be going down or remain stagant? Anybody can watch and bet a race from anywhere now. You used to have to live somewhere near a racetrack or otb.......If we were dealing with a fair game as I propose, then everyone who likes to gamble would be interested. Whether they would become horseplayers long term, who knows, but they certainly wouldn't shut the door before they bet their first race as most intelligent gamblers currently do.

Why do you and this industry feel that the general public is so willing to take it so for up the you know what. Just like if I have a poker game every week and every week me and my buddy Joe are big winners and the rest of the 8 guys, lose, lose, lose, it doesn't take long for the other 8 guys to leave the game.

People do not mind gambling and losing. People do not like being shafted. In today's game they are being shafted. Plain and simple.

I don't have a problem with Whales. They are playing the same game I am, if they are using computers to do it faster, so be it. If they are betting more money so be it. If they are smarter than me so be it. As mentioned, they are wrong plenty. I have a problem with Whales or anymone else being rebated. Because that changes the game and makes it unbeatable for almost everyone else who isn't. That makes for a game that cannot possibly grow and with all the competion out there that will lead to the demise of racing.

PaceAdvantage
02-06-2018, 02:12 PM
Whether they would become horseplayers long term, who knows, but they certainly wouldn't shut the door before they bet their first race as most intelligent gamblers currently do.Why in the world would intelligent gamblers shut the door on racing if they see these "teams" raking in millions each year?

That proves right there the game is beatable, either by getting rebates themselves (which isn't all that hard to do) or figuring out a better way to peel the onion (which is what intelligent people do).

You can play alongside these "teams" and win. Just like you can trade the financial markets alongside all those high frequency bots and win.

cj
02-06-2018, 02:20 PM
One problem is how to adapt it. Atm it's rather a question of luck when you bet into the pools. Good luck = the odds of your horse rise, bad luck = the odds of your horse drop. Nobody knows which horse the bot will bet down, probably not even the whales know it.
What I don't get is why they have to bomb the pools in the very last second. This seems craven and unfair. I don't think it would make much difference if some parts of the smaller bets came in after the whales action. The 2$, 10$ and not even the 100$ bettors will change the odds dramatically. The whales change the odds, so they should give the horse players a chance to react to these odds. Or wager at an offshore bookie where they don't influence the odds.

Btw i think this is somehow similar to what these whales are doing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage_betting

It has been pointed out on this board that the will pays from other bets (DDs, P3s, P4s) give you a decent guess as to which way the odds are going to go. It certainly isn't ideal but it beats leaving it to chance.

Poindexter
02-06-2018, 02:57 PM
Why in the world would intelligent gamblers shut the door on racing if they see these "teams" raking in millions each year?

That proves right there the game is beatable, either by getting rebates themselves (which isn't all that hard to do) or figuring out a better way to peel the onion (which is what intelligent people do).

You can play alongside these "teams" and win. Just like you can trade the financial markets alongside all those high frequency bots and win.

I am talking about normal, small scale gamblers. Guys that start with a $10,000 Poker Bankrolll and sports betting bankroll and try and grow a roll. Let me refresh your memory in case you miss Ian's post.

As posted by Ian:

3. CAW teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models and will labor for YEARS spending money collecting and analyzing data before they make even one bet. I’m not going to call out anyone specifically but there are guys on this board and others like it (including Twitter) that bitch if they have to pay for PPs and you believe that you’re going to be on a level playing field with guys that spend $50,000+ a year on back data? Last year alone I made $75,000 of data purchases on behalf of U.S. & International CAW clients.

4. I’m not trying to sound harsh; the guys that make up CAW teams are a lot smarter than you are. They’re a lot smarter than I am too and I’m a well-educated guy. These guys are rocket scientists, literally. One guy I know on a start-up team I’m working with has a dual PHD in Nuclear Physics and Aeronautical Engineering. Don’t you think that is some kind of advantage when you’re working with numerical data? Dave Schwartz is a brilliant guy, smarter than I am and has worked with teams in the past. I know he can attest to how hard this is.


This job opportunity is not exactly open to everyone. Huge startup costs, huge educational requirements and technical knowledge. These are teams of
very smart people and then you have to have a huge betting bankroll on top of that.

I am not saying that guys like Ultracapper cannot raise themsleves to be huge profit makers in this game. Of course they can. I believe poster Bacornswitchfarm did so himself. Of course it can be done. But when other
winning gamblers (poker players, dfs players, sports bettors,....) look at this game and look at the other games, most of them are choosing the other games and are doing so for a very good reason. Also even though a few can rise up in todays game, for the masses it is going to be the same old song year after year, -20 to -30% before breakage. When they can lose a fraction of that playing other games, I wonder where there gambling dollar ends up?

How do you play alongside these teams and win? Do I call Ian and say I want to become an investor or would like a daily ridealong. Maybe they will program my laptop to make 1000 bets in a 1/4 of a second? Moreover if they are getting 18% rebates and I am getting a 7% rebate in a trifecta, they win and I lose. I don't want to follow them anyways, I want to bet against them. But I can't even do that in today's game because I don't who the heck they bet until the far turn.

I get it, your mantra is adapt or die. That Mantra would apply just as well if they eliminated rebates and lowered takeout to the propler levels. But in todays game too many are dying and too few adapting and the result is the game will not sustain long term. In the game I propose that would not be the case. That is the difference.

PaceAdvantage
02-06-2018, 03:49 PM
I posted 500+ real-time plays on here not so long ago and showed a profit (yeah, it was a small one...4-5% I think...)...while these teams are active...this shows me a small player can still make a profit in this game WITHOUT rebates...

AND MY METHOD OF PLAY WAS TO BET OVERLAYS on my line...something people are saying is IMPOSSIBLE TO DO NOW WITH CRWs KILLING ODDS AFTER THE GATE OPENS.

It was NEVER EASY to win at this game....NEVER

It's not easy now...but it certainly isn't impossible.

I think the majority of folks railing against these CRWs are WAY overstating their impact on the small player to make a profit.

Poindexter
02-06-2018, 04:26 PM
I posted 500+ real-time plays on here not so long ago and showed a profit (yeah, it was a small one...4-5% I think...)...while these teams are active...this shows me a small player can still make a profit in this game WITHOUT rebates...

AND MY METHOD OF PLAY WAS TO BET OVERLAYS on my line...something people are saying is IMPOSSIBLE TO DO NOW WITH CRWs KILLING ODDS AFTER THE GATE OPENS.

It was NEVER EASY to win at this game....NEVER

It's not easy now...but it certainly isn't impossible.

I think the majority of folks railing against these CRWs are WAY overstating their impact on the small player to make a profit.

Either you are very good or you had a very good run. If you post another 500 plays starting today and have similar results you are likely very good at this game. On the other hand, maybe on your next sample of 500 horse you will regress to your mean(whatever that may be or worse yet have a sample as bad as the first sample was good, maybe losing 50% on the dollar).

That doesn't change the fact that the numbers make it clear that the majority of horseplayers are going to lose 20-30% on the dollar. Perhaps you also missed this post by Ian.

Having been on the other side of the fence and having seen the average gambling performance of customers this entire discussion is amusing to me in a lot of ways. Many were losing at 30% or more yet I'd see them on PA and other forums bitching about how their rebates weren't high enough or complaining about breakage.

That is just further confirmation that I am fairly accurate in my assessment.

So the only question that matters is whether that business model(your average patron losing 25% + breakage) is conducive to the long term growth and success of racing. IMO, the answer is absolutely not, when they can lose less than 5% on table games and 8% on slots and 4.5% on sports betting and 10-12% on dfs.


By the way, I agree this game has never been easy and it will not become easy even if rebates were eliminated this week. It would just be a better game and a lot more enjoyable for everyone.

PaceAdvantage
02-06-2018, 04:31 PM
I experienced one of the worst run-outs of my life during that 500+ race public display...I think I was up close to 10% after 400 plays, but lost my last 25-30 something races in a row...so I didn't get that lucky...:lol:

Tom
02-06-2018, 04:34 PM
Why would I want to make a bet knowing full well that the odds can be cut in half after the gate opens?

PaceAdvantage
02-06-2018, 04:40 PM
Why would you want to make a bet knowing the jock could fall off, your horse could get checked out of the race, or break its leg during the running?

JustRalph
02-06-2018, 04:56 PM
Why would you want to make a bet knowing the jock could fall off, your horse could get checked out of the race, or break its leg during the running?

Because ďaccidentsĒ donít get rewarded monetarily for happening. They arenít part of the pool Iím playing against

Parson
02-06-2018, 05:38 PM
I do very little posting and a whole lot of reading here since I became a member sometime ago. The postings on this forum and my private conversations with a couple of fellow members has improved my game quite a bit over the years. But I have to agree with Pace. There is no secret tote, will pays or anything else that these groups have access to that the rest of us do not. What they do have, as Ian pointed out, a whole bunch of people who could do very well running hedge funds in NYC, but find they enjoy this business more.
I have batched my bets for multiple tracks over the past few years. For an example, today at about 6am, I bet the 5th @ TUP. I bet a win bet on the 3 at min. odds of 3/1. I also stipulated that the bet was to be placed at 0 min. to post. Looks like my bet went through, but as the gates opened ( I am not sure when he dropped but he dropped to 2/1). There in lies the problem is the lag of the track and all other " off track money" coming into the system. It is not in real time. This would require an upgrade in technology that these tracks and ADW's are not going to make at this time. Not sure how to fix the problem other than updating things to the 21st century.
The way I have found to get around some of this when I batch my bets early like I did today, is to raise the odds that I am willing to take. So if I am willing to take 2/1 on a horse then I might set my batch bet with 0 min to post at 3/1 or even 7/2 depending on the track. Tracks such as TAM and GPX that run no where close to Marine Corp time, I might even raise it to 4/1. Now if I am betting live in front of my computer, I adjust accordingly. I may even batch all my days wagers early and send or cancel as I watch. I often do the same thing from the track if I am there for live racing. I have the ability to batch all my bets from my seat and send them as I choose when I choose.

You must also remember that there is so much information out there that all of us have available to us that we did not even 10 years ago or if we did have it, it took hours to compile it. It is much easier for all of us to see a winner now. Especially with a 6 horse fields or even 5 horse fields. Another reason why overlays are not like they use to be and another reason why I have changed to mostly turf racing ( thanks Cincy).

I would lay you odds of 1/9 that my meager wager of 10 or 20 to win ( my usual bet) or maybe I feel like a high roller and actually bet 50 or 100, do not affect the odds of the horse going to the gate, nor do any bets I might cancel before if the odds change. I choose not to play the so called bush tracks where a 100 win bet can change the odds.

I almost venture to say, NOTICE I SAY ALMOST, that even the most sophisticated wagering syndicates do not do that either, as long as you look at them as an individual bettor. This is because of all the combinations and dutch bets they do. They are paying to break even and get a rebate. Think about that. Lets assume we could get a rebate of 10%. I have no idea what they get. But if you and I get 10%. You bet 1k in 1 day and you, as it has been alluded to here, lose 30%, you have a profit of (300) then a rebate of 100. You are still down (200) or you break even and you are now up 100. Most likely it is somewhere in between. These syndicates with all the education, software, forumlas etc. know how to wage maybe as much as 5 to 10 k ( pure guess on my part) on a race so that they break even or just slightly above or below. They have bet 100k on a 10 race card and get back 1k in rebates. +or- . If I could push that much money through, and was smart enough to figure out how to do it I would. What I cannot do is afford to do that then hit a lose. How many of you could afford to lose 10 k on the 2nd today? Very few if any. These guys can do that for multiple races in a row before they hit several in a row.
But once again I think the biggest reason for the odds drop that you see is all the money that comes in from pick the site, amwager, twinspires, betfair, etc in the last 2 mins to post or in the case of GPX and TAM 5 min after post time, and because of the antiquated tech that the track uses to process. Similar to why it takes almost 5 minutes for the payouts to be shown once the race is official at some tracks.

I would be amiss if I did not say thank you to Ian. Your input was most welcome as far as I am concerned


This is something that I have loved being from Louisville my whole life. It is a game that we jokingly say Oaks day is the day we set aside to to let the kids out of school so that we can teach them to gamble, drink and smoke cigars. For me it is something that the entire family enjoys together. Most of the time my wife, my daughters and now daughters boyfriends cannot agree where to go eat or what movie to see, but we can all agree to go to the track or if we stay home, watch the races from TVG and bet on our phones.

These are just my opinions and no facts to back it up. I have never met anyone with the means and the desire to wager such as this. I know many with the means, but no desire. And I know multitudes, myself included that have the desire, but no means to wager like this. Thanks for letting me rant and if I offended anyone, I apologize. that was not my intent. I just wanted to put in my 2 cents. Once again sorry about shouting from a soapbox.

Matt

Track Phantom
02-06-2018, 06:40 PM
Parson (Matt) - You need to post more. You have a lot to offer on this site.

Interesting commentary. I've never bet like this (batch betting). I'm not sure it would appeal to me but I treat the game simply as a hobby. It seems like a lot of work to monitor wagering at this level. Then again, by looking at my ledger for this year, maybe I should be doing more :D

Andy Asaro
02-06-2018, 07:30 PM
Parson (Matt) - You need to post more. You have a lot to offer on this site.

Interesting commentary. :D

Agree. Good post by Parson

Parson
02-06-2018, 08:51 PM
Andy and Phantom, thank you very much for the encouragement to post more and I will try to do so. Like I wrote earlier today, I believe this is the greatest game of chance that you can gamble on. You do not have to participate every race unless you choose, you can choose if you want to play in LA, FL, CA, KY, PA, NY or wherever they are racing. That is another thing that hurts finding overlays, our ability to pick and choose. I am not that old, but I remember when I could only wager on CDX when I went to the track. If was at the track, I could not bet races in NY. Our corner store butcher took book in the back if you wanted to do that. When I could call a bet in on the telephone, that was tall cotton for me. WHOO HOO.

There are a number of things I do not understand about this game and when I do not understand, I tend to get frustrated. I can understand, but not agree; as long as I understand I am fine. Just a few things that I do not understand: the bonehead take out rates set by track mgt., owners and trainers not running ( I do own pieces of a few and we try to run at least every 4-6 weeks or we go broke), the b.s. race conditions that get carded, super trainers that have 200+ horses in training ( no way they know what is going on with the 30K claimer that is 3 states away), the tolerance that we have for those who repeatedly cheat and the death sentence, given to some for the same offense. I could ramble on and on but we would be getting off topic quite a bit.

I forgot to mention, I did have the horse in question @ SAX. Yeah I was a bit upset he dropped in odds, but he still hit my min. odds requirements and it was better than a torn up ticket. I have had my share drift up as well. For some reason those do not p*** me off like the 4/1 that drops to 6/5. Go figure. :rolleyes:

Tom
02-06-2018, 10:44 PM
Why would you want to make a bet knowing the jock could fall off, your horse could get checked out of the race, or break its leg during the running?

Because that doesn't happen every day, many times every day.
Other than , of course, some nitwit jockey strangling the horse out of the gate. But you can add to that - some riders I will never bet period, and some tracks get very little attention. I wouldn't play a NY turf with your money.

fiznow
02-07-2018, 04:27 PM
It has been pointed out on this board that the will pays from other bets (DDs, P3s, P4s) give you a decent guess as to which way the odds are going to go. It certainly isn't ideal but it beats leaving it to chance.

Thank you cj :)

fiznow
02-07-2018, 04:28 PM
Agree. Good post by Parson

I agree too, very good reading. :)

Ian Meyers
02-07-2018, 07:05 PM
ARROGANT? The guy comes here, by request, and tells it like he knows it, like he's worked it, and like he's lived it...has used his real name in posting here...and we still have people DOUBTING and QUESTIONING and basically calling him a LIAR (none of them using their real names by the way).

I'd be "arrogant" too...but I wouldn't use the word arrogant. I'd use something a lot stronger.

No worries PA. Thanks for the support.

1) BCBC, it wasn't me that talked about the collusion. You're obviously thinking of someone else. I was happy I did as well as I did; I don't typically play tournaments. Truth is, I had zero interest in playing in the NHC. Prize money? I finished 17th. 15th was worth $10k. Wasn't going to change my life.

2) re arrogance. I can give you a sample of the usual exchange either online, in person, etc.

Them: I hear there's past posting at GP. I know you understand how the tote works. Do you think that happens with regularity?

Me: No, there are times when a track's pools remain open for a specific race after the gates open. Doesn't happen too often and it's not deliberate.

Them: Bullshit, my friend's cousin's nephew told me he knows a guy at XYZ Downs that bets GP after the bell all the time. He's making like 50% on his bets.



I use to have a boss when I worked in Cleveland..A good guy in many ways but we'd always say he'd never let the facts get in the way of a good story.

People ask for any insights I might have on a specific topic. I give it. When it doesn't match what they (typically) WANT to be true (see Thaskalos '30 PHDs couldn't even agree where to order lunch') they take shots.

I've got thick skin but what's the point of asking someone that might have more insight than you a question and then pissing on him when you don't hear what you want to hear. It's why I will answer guys likes PA, CJ, Andy, O-Crunk, ITP, Pullthepocket, Charlie Davis, etc both here and on Twitter when they ask something but usually won't get involved in discussions with people I don't know.

BTW, I ask those aforementioned guys stuff all the time, respect the time they take to answer my question, and don't piss on them if it's not what I want to hear. :)

green80
02-07-2018, 07:19 PM
No worries PA. Thanks for the support.

1) BCBC, it wasn't me that talked about the collusion. You're obviously thinking of someone else. I was happy I did as well as I did; I don't typically play tournaments. Truth is, I had zero interest in playing in the NHC. Prize money? I finished 17th. 15th was worth $10k. Wasn't going to change my life.

2) re arrogance. I can give you a sample of the usual exchange either online, in person, etc.

Them: I hear there's past posting at GP. I know you understand how the tote works. Do you think that happens with regularity?

Me: No, there are times when a track's pools remain open for a specific race after the gates open. Doesn't happen too often and it's not deliberate.

Them: Bullshit, my friend's cousin's nephew told me he knows a guy at XYZ Downs that bets GP after the bell all the time. He's making like 50% on his bets.



I use to have a boss when I worked in Cleveland..A good guy in many ways but we'd always say he'd never let the facts get in the way of a good story.

People ask for any insights I might have on a specific topic. I give it. When it doesn't match what they (typically) WANT to be true (see Thaskalos '30 PHDs couldn't even agree where to order lunch') they take shots.

I've got thick skin but what's the point of asking someone that might have more insight than you a question and then pissing on him when you don't hear what you want to hear. It's why I will answer guys likes PA, CJ, Andy, O-Crunk, ITP, Pullthepocket, Charlie Davis, etc both here and on Twitter when they ask something but usually won't get involved in discussions with people I don't know.

BTW, I ask those aforementioned guys stuff all the time, respect the time they take to answer my question, and don't piss on them if it's not what I want to hear. :)


on this forum, after you read a few comments you can usually tell how much a guy knows.

GMB@BP
02-07-2018, 07:42 PM
on this forum, after you read a few comments you can usually tell how much a guy knows.

I dont know that much, but I thought I knew alot about gambling on this sport.

Now I know better. kinda sad. Imagine the new player, what he is up against.

ultracapper
02-08-2018, 03:14 PM
No worries PA. Thanks for the support.

1) BCBC, it wasn't me that talked about the collusion. You're obviously thinking of someone else. I was happy I did as well as I did; I don't typically play tournaments. Truth is, I had zero interest in playing in the NHC. Prize money? I finished 17th. 15th was worth $10k. Wasn't going to change my life.

2) re arrogance. I can give you a sample of the usual exchange either online, in person, etc.

Them: I hear there's past posting at GP. I know you understand how the tote works. Do you think that happens with regularity?

Me: No, there are times when a track's pools remain open for a specific race after the gates open. Doesn't happen too often and it's not deliberate.

Them: Bullshit, my friend's cousin's nephew told me he knows a guy at XYZ Downs that bets GP after the bell all the time. He's making like 50% on his bets.



I use to have a boss when I worked in Cleveland..A good guy in many ways but we'd always say he'd never let the facts get in the way of a good story.

People ask for any insights I might have on a specific topic. I give it. When it doesn't match what they (typically) WANT to be true (see Thaskalos '30 PHDs couldn't even agree where to order lunch') they take shots.

I've got thick skin but what's the point of asking someone that might have more insight than you a question and then pissing on him when you don't hear what you want to hear. It's why I will answer guys likes PA, CJ, Andy, O-Crunk, ITP, Pullthepocket, Charlie Davis, etc both here and on Twitter when they ask something but usually won't get involved in discussions with people I don't know.

BTW, I ask those aforementioned guys stuff all the time, respect the time they take to answer my question, and don't piss on them if it's not what I want to hear. :)

Usually the most knowledgeable, and/or plugged-in-to-the-industry-guys that come through here get tired of the scene pretty quick. It's a shame, but there are a number of posters in this forum that have decided why they have the results they have, and nothing is going to get them off that spot. It's really their own problem, but it does make guys like you disappear pretty quick. That's a bigger shame. Again, thanks for coming through. Real educational.

cj
02-08-2018, 04:36 PM
That was some drop on For Honor in the finale at Aqueduct today.

gabe
02-12-2018, 08:57 PM
I bet the #4 in the last race at SANTA ANITA and he was 7-1 one minute before post. Horse ends up at 9/2...

JustRalph
02-13-2018, 04:30 AM
I bet the #4 in the last race at SANTA ANITA and he was 7-1 one minute before post. Horse ends up at 9/2...

A gift from the Gods!

Tom
02-13-2018, 09:13 AM
Nothing to see here.
What could possibly be a problem?

The people to time races and measure distances are monitoring this whole thing.

bks
02-13-2018, 11:04 AM
Screw parity and screw the newbie. There's nothing stopping a newbie from going to the track, picking up a program, and doping out a winner just like everyone else.

This game is about finding a long term EDGE. From the player's perspective, it has always been that way and always WILL be that way.

Listing things that are clearly ILLEGAL and trying to equate them to betting activity and handicapping edges that are clearly NOT illegal is the height of ignorance.

Maybe we should go back to horse and buggies too so the Amish are on equal ground to the rest of the country? Those poor newbies...

This might be the dumbest post you've ever made, and that's saying something.

Every newbie at the track I've ever known (including me), went in there thinking that exact same thing...when we won, we thought "WOW, how long has THIS been going on."

Then we got our clocks cleaned (and wow, there WEREN'T ANY REBATES BACK THEN, OR COMPUTER ROBOTIC WAGERING, or whatever the latest complaint is).

When you get your clock cleaned as a newbie, that's the crossroads. You either leave the game, or you become an even bigger fan and set out to IMPROVE YOUR GAME, because UNLIKE THE LOTTERY, you CAN IMPROVE YOUR GAME.

Thank me very much.

Let's be clear what Mike's "IMPROVE YOUR GAME" means in actual practice: it means "become more robotic yourself," w/r/t your betting. It cannot mean anything else, because if you're a human making bets at a large enough scale, your leaks will eventually be exploited by the data analytics companies deploy to do just that. You won't even know it.

And those programs you devise to bet for you: they'll have patterned behaviors too. Those patterns will be picked up on by the ADWs that have the data collection capacity and analytics to pick through them. If it's not happening already, soon you'll be individually targeted by the ADWs in an effort to increase your handle based on those patterns (and when those patterns change, they'll be already searching for your new ones and be better at finding them than you are about yourself). It's an arms race. Not only are you competing with other bettors armed with their own precision softwares, you're trying to outwit the ADWs that want to learn as much about you as they can.

If that's your game, more power to you.

Denny
02-13-2018, 02:58 PM
Just spent the last couple of hours reading this entire thread from the beginning. I'm up to page #11 and stopped to make this comment.

THREE CHEERS for:

Andy Asaro
Thaskalos
Poindexter
cj

In no particular order. Add a few more that i can't remember the names of right now.

THREE BOOS for:

Pace Advantage and his horrible attitude of "Adapt or Die" and "screw" the horseplayer.

Back to page 11.

Denny
02-13-2018, 04:17 PM
Thanks to the industry insider Ian for his posts, as disturbing as they are to me.

Have no desire to become a robotic batch bettor.

I'm just a regular guy that plays for fun and the challenge.

If that disappears, I'm gone too.

10% takeout for all. People would come out from everywhere to play this fascinating game and it could be alive again.

No rebates.

To hell with the bots and their advocates.

Go back to Wall Street you crooks. You know who you are.

ultracapper
02-13-2018, 06:19 PM
I am talking about normal, small scale gamblers. Guys that start with a $10,000 Poker Bankrolll and sports betting bankroll and try and grow a roll. Let me refresh your memory in case you miss Ian's post.

As posted by Ian:

3. CAW teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models and will labor for YEARS spending money collecting and analyzing data before they make even one bet. Iím not going to call out anyone specifically but there are guys on this board and others like it (including Twitter) that bitch if they have to pay for PPs and you believe that youíre going to be on a level playing field with guys that spend $50,000+ a year on back data? Last year alone I made $75,000 of data purchases on behalf of U.S. & International CAW clients.

4. Iím not trying to sound harsh; the guys that make up CAW teams are a lot smarter than you are. Theyíre a lot smarter than I am too and Iím a well-educated guy. These guys are rocket scientists, literally. One guy I know on a start-up team Iím working with has a dual PHD in Nuclear Physics and Aeronautical Engineering. Donít you think that is some kind of advantage when youíre working with numerical data? Dave Schwartz is a brilliant guy, smarter than I am and has worked with teams in the past. I know he can attest to how hard this is.


This job opportunity is not exactly open to everyone. Huge startup costs, huge educational requirements and technical knowledge. These are teams of
very smart people and then you have to have a huge betting bankroll on top of that.

I am not saying that guys like Ultracapper cannot raise themsleves to be huge profit makers in this game. Of course they can. I believe poster Bacornswitchfarm did so himself. Of course it can be done. But when other
winning gamblers (poker players, dfs players, sports bettors,....) look at this game and look at the other games, most of them are choosing the other games and are doing so for a very good reason. Also even though a few can rise up in todays game, for the masses it is going to be the same old song year after year, -20 to -30% before breakage. When they can lose a fraction of that playing other games, I wonder where there gambling dollar ends up?

How do you play alongside these teams and win? Do I call Ian and say I want to become an investor or would like a daily ridealong. Maybe they will program my laptop to make 1000 bets in a 1/4 of a second? Moreover if they are getting 18% rebates and I am getting a 7% rebate in a trifecta, they win and I lose. I don't want to follow them anyways, I want to bet against them. But I can't even do that in today's game because I don't who the heck they bet until the far turn.

I get it, your mantra is adapt or die. That Mantra would apply just as well if they eliminated rebates and lowered takeout to the propler levels. But in todays game too many are dying and too few adapting and the result is the game will not sustain long term. In the game I propose that would not be the case. That is the difference.

Take the RED out of this sentence, and I don't shy away from this statement at all. I started playing in 1982. My first profitable year was 2008. I've had 3 losing years since.

I fell into the niche I occupy as a player, and the more I learn about the betting environment, the more I understand why I am where I am now. Also, reading CJ's comments about his action, I understand his frustration.

I did a number of payoff studies in the early 2000's in SoCal, and found a subset of conditions that not only paid higher average win returns, but a higher mean, so I dedicated my game to those conditions. They just happen to be the conditions that would seem to me, by what I've learned about the bot-teams, the conditions that their feeding system would have the least effect, whereas I believe CJ is playing in an environment where he is dramatically effected by the bot-team's action. CJ plays Stakes, allowances and MSW that he feels have promising impact on future stake races. He bets the better maidens, for a lack of a better way to put it. These are all high-handle races, and provide these bot-teams their best opportunity to effect the tote in almost every pool. It would seem to me that the very best feeding ground for these teams would be the higher handle races.

I did my price studies when, it seems to me, the CRW infiltration of the pools was really gaining ground and becoming more prominent, meet to meet. It really was a perfect storm for me to ride, and purely luck on my part. Entirely lucky as the timing would have it. I play the lower handle races at the higher handle tracks, and I think the success that followed can be attributed to that subset of conditions I fell into. I know they are in the pools I'm playing. But I'm only in the win and place pool, and on very long shots, I will venture into the show pool. Castaway noted earlier in this thread that a lot of the bot-teams "suckage" is carried out in the exotic pools, pools I haven't really had any serious involvement in for a decade. In the races I handicap, I would say the favorites are underlaid close to 75% of time, and the second choice, easily more than 50% of the time. The half of the field that is the longer shots, are usually overlaid, sometimes as much as 25%. They hammer these "cheaper" races, where the discrepancy between the top 2 or 3 horses and the bottom 3 or 4 horses is very pronounced, and they overplay the shorter horses. Since 2008, the average winning pay in my subset of races has risen close to 10%, while the mean has pretty much stayed put. From what I'm understanding, it would seem to me it's the bot-teams that are causing this effect. I don't see any other reason. Their models just don't seem to weigh accurately the bottom half of these fields, and I think it's because the top half looks so strong in comparison in many cases.

The beauty of this sport, not the gambling, I mean the sport, horse racing, is in watching the top athletes compete, so it's very understandable why CJ and others like him, concentrate on those particular conditions. But they are the marquis races and conditions at every track, and attract the most action and highest handle, which is the best feeding ground for these bot operations, IMHO. It sucks that this is the case, but these teams are just looking at the $s, and those are the races and pools they must design their models on because that is where the big bucks are.

cj
02-13-2018, 11:33 PM
Just so I'm clear, I'm actually doing quite well sticking to those kinds of races. It is the claimers and maiden claimers and starters and stuff like that which I'm avoiding.

ultracapper
02-14-2018, 01:57 AM
CJ, let me throw this your way.

I don't know your involvement in the SoCal pools, but here are some numbers for summer 2017 Del Mar.

Subject races are all maidens for older horses, N2L and N3L, whether claiming or starter allowance, for older horses.

Races carded were 94

The mean price of a winner was $9.40, the average price of a winner shoots up to $15.40.

These are the races I handicap. When I am playing optimally, I demand 6/1 on my bets. It's a rule I set in 2008 when I started focusing exclusively on these conditions as I found from 2002 to 2007 the mean for these races at the 3 major SoCal tracks was $9.60 and the average was $14.20. (I believe the substitution of LosAl for Hollywood will ultimately have a negative effect on the mean, and I'm actually starting to see that to be true.) Unfortunately, I meander away from this 6/1 rule all too often, and start betting shorter priced horses. This is when I get stung.

These numbers indicate to me that overlays start showing themselves at the 6/1 and higher price under these conditions, meaning, of course, the value in these races lies in these higher priced horses, and the horses priced 7/2 to 5/1 are priced more accurately. Below 7/2, the underlays begin dominating.

My feeling is that in the higher quality races, you can probably find more overlays in the 7/2 to 5/1 neighborhood, but in these cheaper races, including MSW, those priced horses are more likely EV neutral, if not leaning negative. If you venture into the maiden claimers and starters in SoCal, that steady diet of 3/1 or 4/1 you may be continually finding contenders at could very well be a thick patch of poison ivy, whereas in the higher quality race, betting Bolt d'oro at 7/5 may make all the sense in the world.

Though N1X is not a condition I follow, being it's one step away from MSW and it's N2L nature (though the handle of a good N1X will be appreciably higher than a claiming N2L), it doesn't surprise me that the subject horse of the OP's post settled out at 5/1. The probability that the bots nailed fair value is considerable.

PaceAdvantage
02-14-2018, 01:34 PM
Pace Advantage and his horrible attitude of "Adapt or Die" and "screw" the horseplayer.

Back to page 11.Yeah, I said screw the horseplayer...that's what I said. :rolleyes:

This entire game as been an ADAPT OR DIE game since it was invented.

If you don't want to face reality, that's your right.

Tom
02-14-2018, 10:45 PM
http://www.horseraceinsider.com/On-The-Line/comments/02112018-computer-batch-betting-enathema-to-horseplaying-majority/#comments

More on batching

PaceAdvantage
02-17-2018, 11:28 AM
http://www.horseraceinsider.com/On-The-Line/comments/02112018-computer-batch-betting-enathema-to-horseplaying-majority/#comments

More on batchingEnathema? :lol:

Wow.

Tom
02-17-2018, 11:57 AM
Better than an enema!

bks
02-28-2018, 09:31 PM
CJ, let me throw this your way.

I don't know your involvement in the SoCal pools, but here are some numbers for summer 2017 Del Mar.

Subject races are all maidens for older horses, N2L and N3L, whether claiming or starter allowance, for older horses.

Races carded were 94

The mean price of a winner was $9.40, the average price of a winner shoots up to $15.40.

These are the races I handicap. When I am playing optimally, I demand 6/1 on my bets. It's a rule I set in 2008 when I started focusing exclusively on these conditions as I found from 2002 to 2007 the mean for these races at the 3 major SoCal tracks was $9.60 and the average was $14.20. (I believe the substitution of LosAl for Hollywood will ultimately have a negative effect on the mean, and I'm actually starting to see that to be true.) Unfortunately, I meander away from this 6/1 rule all too often, and start betting shorter priced horses. This is when I get stung.

These numbers indicate to me that overlays start showing themselves at the 6/1 and higher price under these conditions, meaning, of course, the value in these races lies in these higher priced horses, and the horses priced 7/2 to 5/1 are priced more accurately. Below 7/2, the underlays begin dominating.

My feeling is that in the higher quality races, you can probably find more overlays in the 7/2 to 5/1 neighborhood, but in these cheaper races, including MSW, those priced horses are more likely EV neutral, if not leaning negative. If you venture into the maiden claimers and starters in SoCal, that steady diet of 3/1 or 4/1 you may be continually finding contenders at could very well be a thick patch of poison ivy, whereas in the higher quality race, betting Bolt d'oro at 7/5 may make all the sense in the world.

Though N1X is not a condition I follow, being it's one step away from MSW and it's N2L nature (though the handle of a good N1X will be appreciably higher than a claiming N2L), it doesn't surprise me that the subject horse of the OP's post settled out at 5/1. The probability that the bots nailed fair value is considerable.

Very interesting to hear your approach, ultracapper. But do you mean "median" when you are saying "mean"? Isn't the mean simply the average?