Mandatory Rainbow pay-off 1/28 GS

[sammy the sage]

any handicapping thoughts...pool will be well over 10 million...don't think it will hit by single person on Pegasus day 1/27...

Sun's card looks a bit rough...much like Fri.'s 1/26 was....but that one ended up VERY formful....only 1 price in the sequence...VERY unusual for that type of card at THAT track...probably be different this time around...

[Lemon Drop Husker]

IMHO, I believe it will take 3 (maybe even 4) bombs of 15/1 or higher and one out of nowhere 50/1 or higher bomber in order for somebody to take it down today.

I also think it will take Gun Runner getting beat along with no other favorites winning. $3.6 million carryover. Add in Pegasus Day money, and there will be crazy tickets in this pool today.

[RunForTheRoses]

It could be hit with that $120 horse today, maybe not but...

[Tom]

Buy Power Ball tics.

[Robert Fischer]

All horses except the 1 singing bullet are covered in the 50c P5, so I'm guessing the Rainbow has multiple winners.

Could be wrong. I can't see the P6 will pay info

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:8: War Story is the only jackpot

Good luck to that ticket:ThmbUp:

[GMB@BP]

is this a 2 dollar pick 6 wager?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

is this a 2 dollar pick 6 wager?

Not sure if serious, but a $.20 Gulfstream Pick 6.

Carries over to tomorrow for a mandatory payout which had $3.6 Million in the kitty before today.

[GMB@BP]

Not sure if serious, but a $.20 Gulfstream Pick 6.

Carries over to tomorrow for a mandatory payout which had $3.6 Million in the kitty before today.

I wagered on my first GP race in 5 years today (and won).

I dont follow the circuit or chase bets like the Rainbow 6 which is straight up a stupid wager (carryover wise)

So yea, seriously, I know little about the bet.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I wagered on my first GP race in 5 years today (and won).

I dont follow the circuit or chase bets like the Rainbow 6 which is straight up a stupid wager (carryover wise)

So yea, seriously, I know little about the bet.

OK. I wasn't trying to be an asshole, I honestly assumed you knew about the wager.

It is on any horse racing site I see.

I threw a couple of nickels at it today for craps and giggles. Tomorrow is the real wager in which it is a mandatory payout with $3.9 million already in the kitty.

[GMB@BP]

4 dirt sprints and only 2 turf races.

I might put in a few hundred combos with the mandatory payout. Its getting hit but if there really is 10 million in the pool its not possible for it to be an overlay.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

4 dirt sprints and only 2 turf races.

I might put in a few hundred combos with the mandatory payout. Its getting hit but if there really is 10 million in the pool its not possible for it to be an overlay.

You could dead chalk it with top 2 horses for $12.60 and take down a 5 figure haul.

[sammy the sage]

so some interesting discussion...but NO handicapping....as of YET...sssooooo then I'll go 1st....

the 11th is a key race...got a 2/1 shot..(#2)....who'll be bet down to 4/5...looks like a 4/5...BBBBuuuuuuutttttttttt.....it's a cheap race...so...do you single and say everything will be on the up and up...or do you play an All here...????

Thought they would seal the track today....they did not...wondering about tomorrow...also...strong cross wind will be in tomorrow....if they do seal it...early speed will be double dangerous....

[Lemon Drop Husker]

so some interesting discussion...but NO handicapping....as of YET...sssooooo then I'll go 1st....

the 11th is a key race...got a 2/1 shot..(#2)....who'll be bet down to 4/5...looks like a 4/5...BBBBuuuuuuutttttttttt.....it's a cheap race...so...do you single and say everything will be on the up and up...or do you play an All here...????

Thought they would seal the track today....they did not...wondering about tomorrow...also...strong cross wind will be in tomorrow....if they do seal it...early speed will be double dangerous....

No offense, but why would anybody want to give insights to their competitors in a $10 Million dollar pool?

I have no problem putting out selections in any race. But a multi-race life changing type scenario doesn't rate very high on my list.

[RunDustyRun]

I understand some despise red boarding and I'm not trying to be rude but I hit it today on an 80 ticket...liked the bomb as she looked great schooling the other day and then Aaron verrycruse was touting her on xbtv...of course like most horseplayers I can't get past the fact that I replaced her on what would have been a winning pick five ticket at the last minute and that the :3: couldn't get past the :8: in the first leg...could have been a really good day...good luck to all playing tomorrow

[GMB@BP]

I am just starting to handicap it, i have no issue posting opinions but it wont be until i finalize tomorrow.

I dont handicap gp, gonna assume any trainer with +.25 win percentage is on the take and must use no matter what the form.

[sammy the sage]

Well Lemon Drop Husker...I hope you HAVE that secret 10 million dollar ++ horse that NOBODY else handicapped....really...:pound:

Personally...think this will pay between $15 & $30 K...although last big one paid $85K...plenty to go around...:headbanger:

the one horse I wouldn't leave off is the 6 in the 8th...Ward's...has the most upside of any....and might actually go off favored...yet have seen thousands of dollars tix already constructed without this horse...don't let that be you!

All that said...if ya'll cut another horse that wins to get this one in...not taking any responsibility...this is like all internet or OTB touts...most are wrong...

[GMB@BP]

I couldnt get it down to a reasonable amount of combos, so its a pass for me.

Very tricky sequence. I thought there was maybe one single, in then 10th I think it was the #2 horse who is 2/1. He looks to be the speed and just better than these, but he does have the outside horse to deal with who outran him last time.

The other races, which feature some really bad horses, seem like wide open crap shoots.

[AskinHaskin]

the one horse I wouldn't leave off is the 6 in the 8th...Ward's...has the most upside of any....and might actually go off favored...yet have seen thousands of dollars tix already constructed without this horse...don't let that be you!

All that said...if ya'll cut another horse that wins to get this one in...not taking any responsibility...this is like all internet or OTB touts...most are wrong...


That horse is a puzzler...

Ward, obviously a fine trainer, is still 3-for-last-74 when going 2 or more turns on the GP turf.

But this individual has been working in tandem, and keeping up with Delectation, who won a trio of Gr III stakes in Germany and in Scotland, and who raced evenly in U.S. bow behind Zipessa in a stakes at KEE on October 7.


Such a challenge...

[JohnGalt1]

I just put my bets in for today's races.

I bet a horse or horses to win in 5 races. Races 4,11,12 I bet 2 horses to win.

Races 6,7, and 9 anyone can win in my opinion.

The ticket I did NOT play would be all/5/all/2/1,2,4/8,9,15. And I'm not that confident with the 3 horses in the last leg. I would have singled Sandru in the last race if he wasn't scratched.

I've learned through experience not to cut out horses for a cheaper ticket.

[Robert Fischer]

http://oi64.tinypic.com/2ih87z7.jpg

RAINBOW 6 MANDATORY PAYOUT DAY

SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS (Races 7-12)

Race 7: 1 Mile Turf 36k purse Starter Allowance for older F/M.
A's=4,6,7 , B's=2,5,8,9 , C=3.
As you can see, this race requires a level of coverage. :4: and :6: are obvious contenders. I'm using the :7: as an A after she won her last race against the post-position bias.

Race 8: 7.5F Turf 61kN1x purse for 3yo Fillies.
A's=1,2,6,8 , B's=4,5 , C=3.
This race has two 'true' A's; :6: NOOTKA SOUND a talented Ward filly, and :8: (10/1ml!)DARK ARTIST for Jane Cibelli. Because of the short run to the first turn, and the nature of the ticket, I've upgraded two B's to the A designation. :1: CAMILA PRINCESS is stepping up in class and hopes to get a good trip to have a chance to contend. May be worth leaning against in single-race bets. :2: HONEY GRAEME has some value as a relatively talented 1st-turf filly. :4: ANABELLA QUEEN is worth a mention, although designated as a 'B'. She ran well against the post-position bias last time.

Race 9: 5.5F 21k purse for 3yo mdn clm.
A's=1,4 , B's=7,9 , C's=2,3,5,6.
Hopefully the high morning line scares players away from using :1: ATTORNEY AL(10-1!) as an 'A'. :4: Dreaming of Jo Jo has a good chance of running them off their feet save the 1.

Race 10: 5.5F 19k purse, Claiming 6250 F/M.
A'S=2 , B's=3,8 , C's=4,5.
Aptly named :2: FIRST DISTINCTION is also our first single. Lot of tickets will be riding on this horse. May be a race where contrarians will want to string some coverage to their other A's, hoping for chaos.

Race 11: 6F 36K purse Starter Allowance for 3YO Fillies.
A's=2,4 , B's=6,7 , C's=5
:4: DANCE RHYTHMS looks strong.

Race 12: 6.5F 29k purse Claiming 6250 for 4yo+.
A's=8,9,12,14,15 , C's=1.
This race simply has no true 'A' horse. :8: PADEN is perhaps the closest resemblance and could be a single/lean/prayer for the bare-minimum budget tickets. Fourteen unreliable bottom claimers try to sprint 6.5 furlongs, and we may see the race fall apart.

Good Luck!

[GMB@BP]

Good luck, that ticket is 2300 +/- for 0.20. Hope it doesnt chalk out and returns for you.

Seems like the 2 in the 10th is a very common single. It would be nice to see if you one could stand with another single and spread that race because if a longer priced horse wins it its going to make the payoff really worth it.

[Robert Fischer]

Good luck, that ticket is 2300 +/- for 0.20. Hope it doesnt chalk out and returns for you.

Seems like the 2 in the 10th is a very common single. It would be nice to see if you one could stand with another single and spread that race because if a longer priced horse wins it its going to make the payoff really worth it.

$1,205.60 for the whole ticket pictured.
(could 'emphasize' just the A's x3(60cents) for another $100($48 each 20c) (1,301.60).

Just the 'A's are $48.

A's+1b aprox $350.

This is a major carryover day, so the ticket is designed for pros or groups.


I agree that the 10th is interesting. If the 2 loses the 10th, it's going be a big boost to the payouts and is a chance for a player on a budget do something like string other A's while using maybe 5 horses in the 10th, hoping for an upset.






http://i67.tinypic.com/zlyjc5.jpg

[Poindexter]

Okay here are my fwiw top contenders. 1 A choice and B choices in each race(post positon order not order of preference).

7th A) 4 B)5-7-9
8th A) 6 B)1-4-8
9th A) 4) B) 6-7-9
10th A) 2 B)3-5-7-8
11th A)7 B)2-3-4
12th) A)8 B)9-12-15

As far as legit singles there really are none. Stongest A choice would be in the 7th, next best the 10th but he is beaten chalk almost every time he run.

Good luck here.

[sammy the sage]

So am going to post my WISH tix before post....as am NOT playing...(no way to play currently...ie...money not the issue...will leave it at that..)...if it comes in...will be majorly :puke::puke::puke::pout::mad::mad:

7th...4,5,7
8th...6,8
9th...1,4,5,7,9,
10th..ALL 8 horses
11th..2,4,6,7
12th..4,8,14

$576 cost

B.O.L. all

[Robert Fischer]

Good luck everyone!

[sammy the sage]

Nice call poindexter....now maybe...JUST maybe....Husker can tell us which horse is the $20 million dollar horse..???:rolleyes:

[Robert Fischer]

Poindexter's ticket is looking very good.

In race 9, the :4: is obvious. I was hoping that the :1: will pull a 'Navarro'. Not getting bet down on the board. I don't know if that's a bad sign, but it's not a positive that I was sort of expecting (5-1, 6-1 range?).
:4: is a bit 'antsy' on the track, I don't know if he's always nervous? Could get interesting.
I know I'm rooting for 4 or 1 here. Need another 'A' leg.

[Robert Fischer]

Can easily lose with an 'X' or a 'C'. I'll be happy if I hit, even for a loss(and then kick myself for not 'emphasizing' combos such as everyone's single :2: FIRST DISTINCTION...), however I can afford 1 more 'B', so seeing that I have spread A's in the last race, I'm rooting for a 'B' here in race 11. :6:STARCLOUD may be the best possibility.


Also rooting for Poindexter, jay68802 and anyone else still alive :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[GMB@BP]

So far all the winners are very logical, had I played my 1200 dollar ticket I would be 47/47..but I would think i may be hard pressed to break even unless the longer prices were to hit. I have no feel for these things, maybe a lot money was spent trying to hit the longest tix.

[linrom1]

So far all the winners are very logical, had I played my 1200 dollar ticket I would be 47/47..but I would think i may be hard pressed to break even unless the longer prices were to hit. I have no feel for these things, maybe a lot money was spent trying to hit the longest tix.

It's a $20million boondoggle.:D:D:D ....people spending thousands for a ticket that could be had for less than $50. The math didn't make any sense: you have a $4million carryover with $16million NEW money wagered?

[GMB@BP]

35/1 finish, never could have had that horse

[Robert Fischer]

35/1 finish, never could have had that horse

Agreed. That was pretty much impossible to use.

Only logical way to have hit that would be on a ticket that singled a couple horses and mashed the 'all' button...

[Denny]

Has to make you wonder if these type of bets are worth it?

Need a 35/1 to to win for a 15k payoff!

[AltonKelsey]

Has to make you wonder if these type of bets are worth it?

Need a 35/1 to to win for a 15k payoff!

uh, thats for 20c

[linrom1]

You do realize that both 8 and the 9 had one of the lowest Pick 5 payouts.

GP is more crooked than Penn! The home of falling jockeys and horses never getting out of the gate.

[garyscpa]

35/1 finish, never could have had that horse

Most lightly raced horse in a field of broken down claiming horses.

[RunForTheRoses]

You do realize that both 8 and the 9 had one of the lowest Pick 5 payouts.

GP is more crooked than Penn! The home of falling jockeys and horses never getting out of the gate.

That was bullshit, was alive with 8 9 12 14 on a $153 ticket, that start was uh just a little strange. In retrospect 5 wasn't that crazy but would he really have gotten an easy lead if 8 and 9 broke OK.

Was fun for a little while...

[RunForTheRoses]

Most lightly raced horse in a field of broken down claiming horses.

Had speed too, two back had bad start but...would he have gotten such an easy lead if 8 and 9 broke OK?

[TMQ]

I'm pretty shocked with the :5: winning the last leg at 35-1 it only paid $15,000

[TMQ]

Agreed. That was pretty much impossible to use.

Only logical way to have hit that would be on a ticket that singled a couple horses and mashed the 'all' button...

I disagree, the :5: had won the same condition of race 2 out 3 times. Make that 3 of 4 now.

[upthecreek]

https://twitter.com/goofonroof/status/957746687690371074

[RunForTheRoses]

I disagree, the :5: had won the same condition of race 2 out 3 times. Make that 3 of 4 now.

well he won 6250 NW 2 and NW 3, not open 6250. Different animal.

[RunForTheRoses]

https://twitter.com/goofonroof/status/957746687690371074

Vic is this man:


https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=8nWKtCEU&id=3E40CF42FA8E833195B89EE5A3AA3DB54F65BFC2&thid=OIP.8nWKtCEUE1R9URpAW-txbAHaJS&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fmedia.makeameme.org%2fcreat ed%2fi-am-the-p81xyh.jpg&exph=753&expw=600&q=most+capable+man+in+the+world+meme&simid=607988283934311385&selectedIndex=19&ajaxhist=0

[Robert Fischer]

Vic is the man!




The 8 would have likely won, had he broke from the gate.

9 was a closer who needed the pace to fall apart, but you never know...


5 had the 3rd highest TimeformUS early pace number. Last race he quit after a hot pace (a collapsing pace where the 12 Apollo made a premature move, and 15 Francois lumped up to win).
However, the 5 wasn't fast enough on paper to win this or survive the expected pace. His only positive was working through his conditions, but that comes with tougher competition.
using 2 singles and 'ALL' in the last race could be accomplished for around $150 or so. Even with hindsight, not sure if that was a smart ticket to add to your plays.

Had the 8 won, I'm pretty sure my ticket would not have returned the 1,200 that it cost.
It's a little bit of a mental barrier to get over, but you do still have to 'emphasize' the public's singles and re-punch a ticket or 3 with your selections and their singles. It's already an expensive ticket, so you get some cognitive dissonance there. I have a better feel for it now. Hopefully don't forget before the next 4M carryover. ;)

[TMQ]

You are correct. Regardless if you throw out the turf races he shouldn't have been 35-1. But this is why I hate betting the cheapest of cheap horses, they aren't very reliable.:bang:

[TMQ]

Vic is the man!




The 8 would have likely won, had he broke from the gate.

9 was a closer who needed the pace to fall apart, but you never know...


5 had the 3rd highest TimeformUS early pace number. Last race he quit after a hot pace (a collapsing pace where the 12 Apollo made a premature move, and 15 Francois lumped up to win).
However, the 5 wasn't fast enough on paper to win this or survive the expected pace. His only positive was working through his conditions, but that comes with tougher competition.
using 2 singles and 'ALL' in the last race could be accomplished for around $150 or so. Even with hindsight, not sure if that was a smart ticket to add to your plays.

Had the 8 won, I'm pretty sure my ticket would not have returned the 1,200 that it cost.
It's a little bit of a mental barrier to get over, but you do still have to 'emphasize' the public's singles and re-punch a ticket or 3 with your selections and their singles. It's already an expensive ticket, so you get some cognitive dissonance there. I have a better feel for it now. Hopefully don't forget before the next 4M carryover. ;)

I don't think it would have even paid over $1,000.

[RunForTheRoses]

Vic is the man!




The 8 would have likely won, had he broke from the gate.

9 was a closer who needed the pace to fall apart, but you never know...


5 had the 3rd highest TimeformUS early pace number. Last race he quit after a hot pace (a collapsing pace where the 12 Apollo made a premature move, and 15 Francois lumped up to win).
However, the 5 wasn't fast enough on paper to win this or survive the expected pace. His only positive was working through his conditions, but that comes with tougher competition.
using 2 singles and 'ALL' in the last race could be accomplished for around $150 or so. Even with hindsight, not sure if that was a smart ticket to add to your plays.

Had the 8 won, I'm pretty sure my ticket would not have returned the 1,200 that it cost.
It's a little bit of a mental barrier to get over, but you do still have to 'emphasize' the public's singles and re-punch a ticket or 3 with your selections and their singles. It's already an expensive ticket, so you get some cognitive dissonance there. I have a better feel for it now. Hopefully don't forget before the next 4M carryover. ;)

The P5 was paying $340 for 50 cents with the 8. The winner of the 7th paid 11 so probably would have paid somewhere between $800 and $1600. I would have gladly taken.

[GMB@BP]

I disagree, the :5: had won the same condition of race 2 out 3 times. Make that 3 of 4 now.

He hardly won the same condition, he won a non winners of 2 lifetime and 3 lifetime restricted claimer, this was an open claimer, huge difference.

It would like saying the Zia Park oaks and the Santa Anita Oaks are the same condition since the purse was the same and its for 3yo fillies.

He did have speed, and aired so yea, guess he wasnt impossible.

[TMQ]

There was 42,000 tickets going into the last race.

[GMB@BP]

I don't think it would have even paid over $1,000.

agree

[Robert Fischer]

I don't think it would have even paid over $1,000.
We are on the same page here.

I was guessing maybe $250-$300. I respect RunForTheRoses estimate as well. :ThmbUp:


Was tough to attempt to build a ticket in the mindset of a pro. Have to do things like emphasize the singles and take some shots in potential chaos races. Can't really worry about the dollar amount before you've gone through different strategies. I know as a guy who feels $200 is a nice sized PICK 3 or 4, that going over $1k across 22 separate tickets was new territory. Hopefully I have a better feel for that now. Was fun to play along.

[Ocala Mike]

4 of us went in on a $128 ticket chasing the huge carrover for a $.20 hit. We had the 1st 5, and alive to the #9 in the last, who threw the jock. So it goes - we went ALL in the wrong race. Aby Medina is good on the front end.

[TMQ]

I was alive with the :8::12: with a :2::4::6::9:/:1::2::5::6:/:1::4::7::9:/:2::3:/:2::4:/:8::12: for $102.40

[Denny]

Singled the #9 in the first leg???

Wonder how many more tickets he put in that we don't know about with different 'singles' in other races?

He could have 5 or more other tickets that lost.

[Quesmark]

No will pays were posted before the race went off,was that intentional to hide the relatively low payoffs;many players who put in tickets with lots of permutations would've been disappointed in their return after all the hype/buildup leading up to the mandatory payout day.

[GMB@BP]

Singled the #9 in the first leg???

Wonder how many more tickets he put in that we don't know about with different 'singles' in other races?

He could have 5 or more other tickets that lost.

I am sure he did, I bet he put in between 1k to 2k if I was guessing.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Singled the #9 in the first leg???

Wonder how many more tickets he put in that we don't know about with different 'singles' in other races?

He could have 5 or more other tickets that lost.

This is almost surely the case...maybe Vic can chime in here once again...

[Denny]

It's easy to spend a lot more with multiple tickets.

Could even be more "all" tickets in other races.

That's how Borislow hit that big one a few years back. Spent 15k.

Not that anything's wrong with that. God bless him.

Just curious, that's all.

[Immortal6]

Not to toot my own horn here but picking the :5: in the last race wasn't out of the question and those crying foul need to suck it up. Nothing in that race was rigged. I myself had him on my ticket (the only one I played) that cost me $19.20! I'm proud to say I hit 5/6 and even played the 5 to win (so what if it was only for $2) haha.

It reminds me of the guy in another thread who so proudly proclaimed how he would swindle everyone that plays GP out of their money on mandatory payoff days withs $250 tickets filled with chalk. As a new horse bettor playing his first rainbow P6 I'm glad it wasn't a complete chalk fest as that would have turned me off from ever playing it again.

Again not to step on anyone's toes. My dad whom I was with had over $200 in his ticket and lost on the first leg. Just be glad you were alive to the last race and move forward :headbanger:

[linrom1]

No will pays were posted before the race went off,was that intentional to hide the relatively low payoffs;many players who put in tickets with lots of permutations would've been disappointed in their return after all the hype/buildup leading up to the mandatory payout day.

Exactly! Stronach Group had a decision to make: pay off about 42,000 ticket holders, or make their large bettors whole. Guess which decision they made.

The race was a farce with the 8 and 9 taken out of the race.

[davew]

No will pays were posted before the race went off,was that intentional to hide the relatively low payoffs;many players who put in tickets with lots of permutations would've been disappointed in their return after all the hype/buildup leading up to the mandatory payout day.

I have not seen will-pays since that screw-up a couple years back when an early bet from Chicago was placed before early scratches known. Will-pays were shown, but late betting made a new favorite that won. The early scratch bet was switched to the favorite, making 2 tickets on the winner and no jackpot.

The 5 drifted out in the stretch, changing both 3 and 11's path. I have seen DQs sometimes from similar action.

[therover]

Well Lemon Drop Husker...I hope you HAVE that secret 10 million dollar ++ horse that NOBODY else handicapped....really...:pound:

Personally...think this will pay between $15 & $30 K...although last big one paid $85K...plenty to go around...:headbanger:

the one horse I wouldn't leave off is the 6 in the 8th...Ward's...has the most upside of any....and might actually go off favored...yet have seen thousands of dollars tix already constructed without this horse...don't let that be you!

All that said...if ya'll cut another horse that wins to get this one in...not taking any responsibility...this is like all internet or OTB touts...most are wrong...

Good call on the payoff...and more importantly the #6 in the 8th. Took your advice but got knocked out in the 4th leg.

[vegasone]

Lady behind me had the last race covered plus several singles and hit it with small ticket. Skill or luck? Dunno. Have seen her around some.

[GMB@BP]

Sounds like everyone hit this bet between message boards and twitter....who knew it was that easy

[Robert Fischer]

Sounds like everyone hit this bet between message boards and twitter....who knew it was that easy
:D :ThmbUp:

It just shows how hard the game is, and how gullible the average player/customer is considered to be.

I think that fellow PA member 'Teach' was the only guy I saw specify the 5 before the race. Teach wisely went five deep in a leg that required depth, and was very sharp to pick the winner (I went six deep, and did not have him!). Teach posted a winning ticket (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=143032) for about $1,600 or possibly less with an ABC system. Not sure, but I may(or may not) have seen some 'All' for the last leg with Facebook friends, although I don't believe anyone happened to post a winning ticket in that small sample.
I gave Teach some congrats, and he deserves a lot more congrats for those picks. He is a regular poster in the selections section. Selections board can get quiet at times.



After the race, I was amazed that some touted the :5: as their Top Selection!!
Glad they recouped some $ for what must be miserable other 364d/yr with a system that picks that horse on top... :rolleyes:

I can't knock anyone who earns income as a tout. At least not as a man. More power to anyone who can earn a living or additional income in this game.

In serious handicapping/horseplaying discussion, there is really no place for redboarding.

A Vic Stauffer gets a pass in a situation like this. He's paid his dues, and we know he's simply proud of a score on a clever ticket. Maybe he's been waiting to go all-in on Madame Uno since he handicapped the Paco Lopez race @ Belmont? Or maybe this was one of some 25 tickets? It was a sharp play.

For 'ordinary' players, or someone who wants to sell me something, you have to post before the race for any credit.

[RunDustyRun]

:D :ThmbUp:



For 'ordinary' players, or someone who wants to sell me something, you have to post before the race for any credit.

Fair enough...but the 11000 I have in my pocket from Saturdays score feels the same whether you give me credit or not...who would make something like that up?? and btw, I enjoy your posts and do recognize you as a fairly sharp player..

[Poindexter]

Regarding it being hard or easy, it is simply numbers. 4 million was bet. That was 20 million combos played. Of the 20 million combos played, around 450 connected(I don't know the exact numbers or takeout). As mentioned beore it even started, the 2 in leg 4 was likely the horse singled the most, so he made it a lot easier.

The payoff was okay. The pick 5 paid $4000 and parlayed to the winner of the 7th made for the equivalent of a $24,000 payoff for 50 cents(of course they payout for 4 as well, so maybe a $26,000-$28,000 payoff for 50 cents which is about $11,000 for a 20 cent pick 6. Due to the reduced takeout on the pick 6 (carryover offset most of the take out) you had a little premium.

As just mentioned with a carryover and so much being bet the takeout washes out the carryover so the value is not in the carryover, it is in the reduced takeout and the nature of how players are playing. In the days leading up to the mandatory payout, a couple of the pick payoffs were very good(despite a ridiculous takeout), because so much money was being bet chasing the impossible longshots and trying to pull down a jackpot. On the mandatory payout day, the playing field shifted to a normal pick 6, but with so many people playing, you are going to see tilt on the heavy favorites(I got a kick out of Kurt Hoover asking Matt on TVG the strategy for playing the rainbow 6 as he doesn't play it-Hello Kurt-this was a regular pick 6 with carryover-the same kind you play 50 time a year at Santa Anita-you don't have to bet 20 cent tickets) The heavy chalks on the card were leg 3, who won, leg 4 who won and leg 5 that lost. With 2 of these 3 horses winning that killed any chance of getting a really good payout, because the key to pick sixes is singles. Most players single someone, somewhere, if not 2 or 3 horses and if they don't they likely are not going to find the longshot winners like we saw in the final leg. In a pick 6 it is typically inevitable that at least one price horse(oddball) pop up. If they dont, it pays squat and eveyone and their grandmother brings down the pick 6(as would have happened had the 8 had a clean break in the final leg).

There was a lot of discussion on whether the winner of the last warranted play. When you are spreading a race, doesn't matter. You use any horse that has any real chance of winning. If I line a race, I typically will take horses up to 30-1 my line. I didn't line the race, but not a chance I would have made him over 30-1 in the race.

The bottom line is, hitting pick 6's is not about finding all the winners typically, it is about managing to get them all on 1 ticket. You basically have to do everything right and after that a little lady luck doesn't hurt. The larger the budget the easier it is, the smaller the budget the tougher it is. Had I played my preferred approach which would have cost about $1200 bucks or so, I would have hit, but did not feel this card warranted that kind of play. So I played for a fraction of that and of course ended up with 5. That is sort of the nature of the beast.

Completely off topic but just to give an example of how crazy this game can be. Last night saw there was a carryover at Hawthorne. So I print out the pp's
handicap the card as fast as I can and with about 5 minutes to post, come up with a caveman ticket of $192(I don't even bet Hawthorne Harness). I don't want to put $192 into it. So I start reviewing, find a couple of horses I need to add, now I defintiely cannot play a caveman ticket because I am now at
2-4/3-5-6-8/1-2-3/3-4-5-6/1-3-4-6-7-8 which would have brought my caveman ticket up to $288. So I get cute and play needing my top choice in either the 2nd or 3rd (I have cost myself some nice scores doing this before, but that is the limitations of a budget-there are also plenty of times that you save yourself $144 and nothing becomes of either ticket or you hit anyways). Brought my cost down to $144 (not much different than the $192 ticket I started with). So you can guess most of the story, of course both of the top choices who were heavy chalks in the 2nd and 3rd lost so going into the 5th, my original ticket of $192 that I did not play is live for like $4000 to $15000 some might have been even more and I am live to 7 horses, while of course in acutality I am dead. This is where the brutailty this game becomes obvious. Had I stuck with my original $192 play, guess what, one of the 2 horses I did not use wins the final leg at 17-1(nothing wrong with the horse per se, I just drew the line at 7 horses when I needed 8-you make these types of choices in race after race but in the pick 5's and pick 6's, when you make the wrong choice in the wrong race it can cost you 1000's or even tens of thousands of dollars). So at the end my decision ended up costing me zilch, but prior to the the last race I was one upset individual. The winning pick 5 I believe paid about $17000, but the problem is that whe you hit these things you knock the price down substantially. I assume that 2 hit it at $17,000 so a 3rd person hitting knocks the price down to $11,300. That is the good thing about 4 million dollar pools, you can hit for $17,000 and only knock down your ticket price a tiny amount, not $5700.

[GMB@BP]

Fair enough...but the 11000 I have in my pocket from Saturdays score feels the same whether you give me credit or not...who would make something like that up?? and btw, I enjoy your posts and do recognize you as a fairly sharp player..

its all good man, my comment was just for fun stating that so many people hit it that I must be dense. Usually dont see that many people hitting the pick 6 at the same time.

[jay68802]

Fair enough...but the 11000 I have in my pocket from Saturdays score feels the same whether you give me credit or not...who would make something like that up?? and btw, I enjoy your posts and do recognize you as a fairly sharp player..

:popcorn:

[Denny]

Poindexter, you said above:

"Regarding it being hard or easy, it is simply numbers. 4 million was bet. That was 20 million combos played."

Your numbers are a little off.

Almost $20M was bet. That's 100M combos.

[RunDustyRun]

Yes...saturday's score..check the last post on page one for reference...but thanks for the beligerence...i enjoy others doing well...too bad some on this mb cant stand it...

[Robert Fischer]

Regarding it being hard or easy, it is simply numbers. 4 million was bet. That was 20 million combos played. Of the 20 million combos played, around 450 connected(I don't know the exact numbers or takeout). As mentioned beore it even started, the 2 in leg 4 was likely the horse singled the most, so he made it a lot easier.

The payoff was okay. The pick 5 paid $4000 and parlayed to the winner of the 7th made for the equivalent of a $24,000 payoff for 50 cents(of course they payout for 4 as well, so maybe a $26,000-$28,000 payoff for 50 cents which is about $11,000 for a 20 cent pick 6. Due to the reduced takeout on the pick 6 (carryover offset most of the take out) you had a little premium.

As just mentioned with a carryover and so much being bet the takeout washes out the carryover so the value is not in the carryover, it is in the reduced takeout and the nature of how players are playing. In the days leading up to the mandatory payout, a couple of the pick payoffs were very good(despite a ridiculous takeout), because so much money was being bet chasing the impossible longshots and trying to pull down a jackpot. On the mandatory payout day, the playing field shifted to a normal pick 6, but with so many people playing, you are going to see tilt on the heavy favorites(I got a kick out of Kurt Hoover asking Matt on TVG the strategy for playing the rainbow 6 as he doesn't play it-Hello Kurt-this was a regular pick 6 with carryover-the same kind you play 50 time a year at Santa Anita-you don't have to bet 20 cent tickets) The heavy chalks on the card were leg 3, who won, leg 4 who won and leg 5 that lost. With 2 of these 3 horses winning that killed any chance of getting a really good payout, because the key to pick sixes is singles. Most players single someone, somewhere, if not 2 or 3 horses and if they don't they likely are not going to find the longshot winners like we saw in the final leg. In a pick 6 it is typically inevitable that at least one price horse(oddball) pop up. If they dont, it pays squat and eveyone and their grandmother brings down the pick 6(as would have happened had the 8 had a clean break in the final leg).

There was a lot of discussion on whether the winner of the last warranted play. When you are spreading a race, doesn't matter. You use any horse that has any real chance of winning. If I line a race, I typically will take horses up to 30-1 my line. I didn't line the race, but not a chance I would have made him over 30-1 in the race.

The bottom line is, hitting pick 6's is not about finding all the winners typically, it is about managing to get them all on 1 ticket. You basically have to do everything right and after that a little lady luck doesn't hurt. The larger the budget the easier it is, the smaller the budget the tougher it is. Had I played my preferred approach which would have cost about $1200 bucks or so, I would have hit, but did not feel this card warranted that kind of play. So I played for a fraction of that and of course ended up with 5. That is sort of the nature of the beast.

Completely off topic but just to give an example of how crazy this game can be. Last night saw there was a carryover at Hawthorne. So I print out the pp's
handicap the card as fast as I can and with about 5 minutes to post, come up with a caveman ticket of $192(I don't even bet Hawthorne Harness). I don't want to put $192 into it. So I start reviewing, find a couple of horses I need to add, now I defintiely cannot play a caveman ticket because I am now at
2-4/3-5-6-8/1-2-3/3-4-5-6/1-3-4-6-7-8 which would have brought my caveman ticket up to $288. So I get cute and play needing my top choice in either the 2nd or 3rd (I have cost myself some nice scores doing this before, but that is the limitations of a budget-there are also plenty of times that you save yourself $144 and nothing becomes of either ticket or you hit anyways). Brought my cost down to $144 (not much different than the $192 ticket I started with). So you can guess most of the story, of course both of the top choices who were heavy chalks in the 2nd and 3rd lost so going into the 5th, my original ticket of $192 that I did not play is live for like $4000 to $15000 some might have been even more and I am live to 7 horses, while of course in acutality I am dead. This is where the brutailty this game becomes obvious. Had I stuck with my original $192 play, guess what, one of the 2 horses I did not use wins the final leg at 17-1(nothing wrong with the horse per se, I just drew the line at 7 horses when I needed 8-you make these types of choices in race after race but in the pick 5's and pick 6's, when you make the wrong choice in the wrong race it can cost you 1000's or even tens of thousands of dollars). So at the end my decision ended up costing me zilch, but prior to the the last race I was one upset individual. The winning pick 5 I believe paid about $17000, but the problem is that whe you hit these things you knock the price down substantially. I assume that 2 hit it at $17,000 so a 3rd person hitting knocks the price down to $11,300. That is the good thing about 4 million dollar pools, you can hit for $17,000 and only knock down your ticket price a tiny amount, not $5700.

looks like you know your way around a Pick 6 :ThmbUp:

[Poindexter]

Poindexter, you said above:

"Regarding it being hard or easy, it is simply numbers. 4 million was bet. That was 20 million combos played."

Your numbers are a little off.

Almost $20M was bet. That's 100M combos.

There were 1.6 million combos "alive" after the 1st race was over. Gulfstream put the number on display after each leg. At least that's what i wrote down.

You need to rework your example.

Sorry about that. Betting too many horses. Just not quite the right ones. I willl try doing this right:lol:

Strangely enough the chart is saying that 15,788,225 bet so I will go with number. I heard repeatedly that 20 million was bet so I guess they were including the carryover in that statement. 15.8 million bet 3.16 million retained for takeout(hana lists the takeout as 20%) 4.14 million carryover more than offset the take out for a net positive of roughly 1 million dollars on 15.8 million dollar bet. So about a 6.3% positive expectation on the bet. So basically 16.8 million was paid out in $15,566 increments to roughly 1080 winning tickets. So roughly 1080 out of close to 79 million combos wagered on hit.

Given the positive expectation pool and amount of public money, I would say the payoff was disappointing. But that leads back to 2 of the 3 heaviest chalks winning(the 2 that won also made the most sense the other that lost I have no idea why hes was odds on). Had one more of them lost you would have seen a lot more value in the payoff.

[AskinHaskin]

Exactly! Stronach Group had a decision to make: pay off about 42,000 ticket holders, or make their large bettors whole. Guess which decision they made.

The race was a farce with the 8 and 9 taken out of the race.


ROFL - that is an insane interpretation.


For obviously there was no chance that 10,000 could hit it no matter the outcome of the finale.


Another conspiracy theorist bites the dust.

[linrom1]

ROFL - that is an insane interpretation.


For obviously there was no chance that 10,000 could hit it no matter the outcome of the finale.


Another conspiracy theorist bites the dust.

With logic like yours no wonder that track management considers handicappers stupider than Loto players especially those that play scratch off games after all the tickets in play are already paid off.

Here are just a few facts:

1. Those giant rainbow seven figure pools only occur on Sundays following Pegasus card. Last year on Sunday Jan 29, the pool reached about $16million.

2. If Emisael Jaramillo does not JUMP off his mount on 12/28/17, there is no giant pool on Pegasus day weekend.

3. During the last leg of the rainbow six 3 seemingly unrelated events just happened resulting in the most improbable outcome: a 12th choice out of field of 14 wins. One being that Sandro, a horse that would have likely been on the front with Forest Gator was scratched; two of lowest will pays in the Pick 5 took themselves out of contention?

If you want forensic evidence watch TV, if you want to convict swindlers, all you need is circumstantial evidence to reach the right conclusion.

[SG4]

I have not seen will-pays since that screw-up a couple years back when an early bet from Chicago was placed before early scratches known. Will-pays were shown, but late betting made a new favorite that won. The early scratch bet was switched to the favorite, making 2 tickets on the winner and no jackpot.

It's been very frustrating with GP instituting this policy of almost no pick 6 will-pays for several seasons now after the above mentioned incident, but once in awhile they'll show will-pays which confused me even more. Finally had the a-ha moment to realize what's going on here - on days when there are no scratches in the final race they will show the pick 6 will-pays, and on days when there is a scratch (which is most often cause they love these final races with 12 horses & 4 AE's) the bettor is on their own to take a guess.

A track with any decency would maybe put up a graphic before the final race to at least show how many tickets are alive to each horse (rather than just total tickets alive), but we're talking about GP here. Considering with the threat of late afternoon rain on Sunday they actually put the turf races early in the pick 6 sequence shows that someone there does have the capability for horse-player compassion, I just wonder where that person is every other day of the meet.

[cj]

ROFL - that is an insane interpretation.


For obviously there was no chance that 10,000 could hit it no matter the outcome of the finale.


Another conspiracy theorist bites the dust.

The favorite was 3 to 1 so 10,000 or right in that neighborhood was possible if it won.

[AskinHaskin]

The favorite was 3 to 1 so 10,000 or right in that neighborhood was possible if it won.


No wonder your math and data awareness are so constantly under question.

The "favorite was 3-to-1"... and just what percentage of the total wagering is required to send a horse away at $3.10-to-1 ?


Even the clueless guy identified 42,000 (+) tickets 'alive' before the last race (though he's sure they were all destined to win)(were it not for some longshot, I'm guessing...).


Now how about you adopt some accurate data presentation and show the nice people some reality for a pleasant switch?


And for heaven's sake, stop defending people who state that the most improbable outcome occurs when the 3rd longest shot on the board wins, and that "pay(ing) off about 42,000 ticketholders" was ever a conscious choice.

[Robert Fischer]

Given the positive expectation pool and amount of public money, I would say the payoff was disappointing. But that leads back to 2 of the 3 heaviest chalks winning(the 2 that won also made the most sense the other that lost I have no idea why hes was odds on). Had one more of them lost you would have seen a lot more value in the payoff.
I agree.

The 10th race winner :2: FIRST DISTINCTION was a jump-off-the-page single.

A good case could be made that the 9th race winner :4: DREAMING OF JO JO was a single as well (I went 2'A's with a flyer on a 10-1 Navarro long shot).

I'm with you on the favorite of the 11th seeming to be overbet. The Romans horse :4: DANCE RHYTHMS looked strong(and was certainly a CONSENSUS 'A'), but I felt the need to couple with the winner :2: . The :4: had just broke maiden by dropping and wiring the field. Throws some 'unknown' into the mix facing winners with a different trip.

I wouldn't be surprised if I was able to look at the pools, if I saw that (r10)First Distinction in particular, and perhaps (r9)Dreaming of Jo Jo as well, took significantly more Rainbow6 money than (r11)Dance Rhythms. It may have simply been a case where 2 favorites won in a row, the public was ready to hammer an obvious horse with a name trainer, and perhaps even some Rainbow 6 players were beginning to look at a possibility of a very light payout should the 3rd consecutive favorite won. Can only speculate.

Interesting to imagine the payout, had the long shot occurred in the 10th race(or both the 9th and 10th) rather than the 12th. Those would be the opinions/days I would want to target if I expected a huge pool to almost offset the takeout.

[Ocala Mike]

The "favorite was 3-to-1"... and just what percentage of the total wagering is required to send a horse away at $3.10-to-1 ?





I'll answer that for him, but I won't show my work. Allowing for the takeout, approximately 20%, +- 2% or so.

[PaceAdvantage]

2. If Emisael Jaramillo does not JUMP off his mount on 12/28/17, there is no giant pool on Pegasus day weekend.You're a complete idiot. Sorry, I don't call people names very often in the horse racing section (or even off topic), but you are a complete ****ing idiot with this comment.

[AndyC]

I'll answer that for him, but I won't show my work. Allowing for the takeout, approximately 20%, +- 2% or so.

100-TO%/odds +1

in example using a 20% TO:

100-20/3.10 + 1 = 80/4.1 = 19.5122% bet

[cj]

No wonder your math and data awareness are so constantly under question.

LOL, OK. Always cool to take shots at somebody sitting behind a keyboard anonymously. Please feel free to introduce yourself if you get the chance. I'd love to meet you. Somehow I'm sure that won't ever happen though.


The "favorite was 3-to-1"... and just what percentage of the total wagering is required to send a horse away at $3.10-to-1 ?


Even the clueless guy identified 42,000 (+) tickets 'alive' before the last race (though he's sure they were all destined to win)(were it not for some longshot, I'm guessing...).


Now how about you adopt some accurate data presentation and show the nice people some reality for a pleasant switch?


And for heaven's sake, stop defending people who state that the most improbable outcome occurs when the 3rd longest shot on the board wins, and that "pay(ing) off about 42,000 ticketholders" was ever a conscious choice.



I said 10,000 was possible, not 42,000. Apparently in addition to being a dickhead your reading comprehension sucks as well. I know very well what percentage a 3 to 1 favorite is. So yes, given that percentage in a different pool, 10,000 winning tickets was quite possible.

[linrom1]

You're a complete idiot. Sorry, I don't call people names very often in the horse racing section (or even off topic), but you are a complete ****ing idiot with this comment.

Thank you Einstein for contradicting yourself in the same sentence. In my opinion he jumped off the horse but you can have your opinion.

[Denny]

Pace Advantage & CJ,

So, it's evidently OK for you two to call people names. Very derogatory names.

I get an infraction and a warning for much less.

What's up with that?

[cj]

Pace Advantage & CJ,

So, it's evidently OK for you two to call people names. Very derogatory names.

I get an infraction and a warning for much less.

What's up with that?

PA obviously can do what he wants. He owns the site. I would guess I get some leeway from PA but if he thinks I overstepped he will let me know I'm sure. At some point people need to be called out for being trolls. That is what happened here with two different posters. We know the history of the posters in questions.

What he try to avoid is having other users make the same sort of determinations.

As for the language, I stick to the NYPD Blue rule which has been in place for a long time on this board. If it was allowed on that show, it is allowed here.

[RunForTheRoses]

PA obviously can do what he wants. He owns the site. I would guess I get some leeway from PA but if he thinks I overstepped he will let me know I'm sure. At some point people need to be called out for being trolls. That is what happened here with two different posters. We know the history of the posters in questions.

What he try to avoid is having other users make the same sort of determinations.

As for the language, I stick to the NYPD Blue rule which has been in place for a long time on this board. If it was allowed on that show, it is allowed here.

I hope posters aren't allowed to post pictures of their though. Lol

[Ocala Mike]

I hope posters aren't allowed to post pictures of their LOSING TICKETS though. Lol

FTFY

[CincyHorseplayer]

Can I get 1-1 on CJ having AskinHaskin horizontal within 60 seconds?!:cool:

[PaceAdvantage]

Pace Advantage & CJ,

So, it's evidently OK for you two to call people names. Very derogatory names.

I get an infraction and a warning for much less.

What's up with that?What's up with that? I'll tell you what's up with it.

If you don't like it, you can apply for a refund.

That's what's up with it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Thank you Einstein for contradicting yourself in the same sentence. In my opinion he jumped off the horse but you can have your opinion.Yeah, he ****ing voluntarily jumped off the horse, with the ENTIRE FIELD RIGHT BEHIND him, giving him a 50/50 shot of committing SUICIDE, all to fix some race you lost.

Let me revise my last comment.

You've ALWAYS been a ****ing idiot on here...I've just been better about biting my tongue until now.

You can apply for a refund too if you don't like it.

[PaceAdvantage]

And cj can give me three red cards and a suspension if he wants...I don't care...certain people need to be called out around here for constant utter stupidity.

[davew]

Thank you Einstein for contradicting yourself in the same sentence. In my opinion he jumped off the horse but you can have your opinion.

He definitely lost his balance when the horse lunged inward. I guess jumping off would be better than getting dragged with 1 foot stuck in the left stirrup.

Does the jockey have to be in the saddle crossing the finish line to win? or can they be holding on with their arms around the horses neck or with one boot caught in a stirrup?

[SG4]

Does the jockey have to be in the saddle crossing the finish line to win? or can they be holding on with their arms around the horses neck or with one boot caught in a stirrup?

As long as the horse carried the weight the entire time to the finish line & jockey never touched the ground they're OK. Here's a good video on how to complete your exacta the hard way:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzvhP5dv_b8

[Denny]

PA,
Now who's being a dickhead?

[PaceAdvantage]

Not me, of that I can assure you.

[shout1966]

If you watch the race carefully when he strikes the horse twice, with the whip, the horse shy's away from the whip in , and the jockey is leaning the other way and loses it.