PDA

View Full Version : Gulstream: Races 1 - 5: Wed., Jan. 24


Teach
01-24-2018, 07:44 AM
Before I begin, a "shout out" to DRF's Mike Welsch. Mike and I would see each other - I want to say in the mid-1980s - in the Suffolk Downs Press Box. I was then a member of the New England Turf Writers. Other "regulars" were the late Bob Kinsley, Ron Indresano, Eddie Gray, T.D. Thornton, Paul Daley, "Chip" Tuttle and track announcer Jim Hannon "...they're in Beachmont." Larry Collmus also called at Suffolk.

Race One:

:10: Smart Dude. The ML sez 20-1. Caramba! 20-1! I can't believe this horse will stay anywhere near those odds. This chestnut gelding gets a huge rider switch to Jose Ortiz. This Stephen Got Even-bred was leading to the top of the stretch in his last in this company about a month ago; he faded to 5th. If Ortiz can ration out this gelding's speed for an additional furlong, it will certainly pay dividends. This gelding's only win came at GP on the turf at this distance. Oh, an angle that I like: 3rd start off a layoff. Jose Orseno trains for Patricia Generazio (from "my neck of the woods").

:8: Wildcat Saint missed by a skinny nose of exiting n2L company in his last (the same race Smart Dude came out of).
This Forest Wildcat-bred's outside post enhance this colt's chances of getting into the race-flow more easily. This Leo Grabriel, Jr. trainee is most definitely "a contendah". Luca Panici reprises the ride.

:3: Bodhi Dog is admittedly: a reach. Yet, I've seen stranger things. This gelding is turning back a couple panels. That could enhance his chances. This Utopia-bred does have a touch of early speed. In a race that's filled with many question marks, this 4-year old Forty Niner-bred is capable of springing the upset. His only win did come on the lawn at GP many moons ago. I'd watch the board for any signs of interest. Alexis Cordero-Lopez trains; Leonel Reyes is in the irons.

Race Two:

:4: Somewhatoptomistic raced greenly in her only pari-mutuel start. This In Summation-bred bay filly was claimed out of that one by Armando de la Cerda for Midwest Thoroughbreds. De la Cerda does exceptionally well with horses entered first off a claim, albeit with a relatively limited sampling. If this 3-year old comes into this race more seasoned, she's certainly a factor. Esmael Jaramillo rides.

:6: Lawless Lady is both adding Lasix and dropping down the claiming ladder; that combination can be a prescription for a trip to the winner's circle. There's also a couple solid morning works for a horse that's been on the shelf for over two months. Luis Saez is in the saddle for trainer Leo Azpurua, Jr.

:2: Body High dons blinkers as she slips downs the claiming ladder. This bay filly has had a couple sharp works since her last race on Dec. 29, one in which she finished a weakening 5th. Sometimes, the addition of blinkers to keep a horse focused (horses have a 270-degree field of vision) can do the trick. Juan Diaz for Jose Velez.

:1: Adios Mia ships in from Canada. This bay filly switches from all-weather to dirt. Sometimes that surface change is a factor. The blinkers come off. This Indian Charlie-bred has faced better north of the border. I'm going to take a close look at her on the track. Mike McDonald trains; David Haldar is in the irons.

Race Three:

:1: Anonym has a ton of speed. Can he carry it six panels? In this gelding's first pari-mutuel try on the grass he walked away from the rest of the field. This Afleet Alex-bred was then ambitiously entered in a 75k OC. That may well have been too formidable a spot, although he was bumped around in that one. The gelding now drops back in with the kind he should handle. It will be up to jockey Tyler Gaffalione to ration out this Northern Afleet-bred's speed. The gelding adds blinkers. Jonathan Thomas trains. A sharp, recent "bullet" work bolsters confidence. Others: :6:, :5:, :7:

Race Four:

:9: Nicky's Warrior gets my tepid nod in a race that's filled with several possible contenders This David Fawkes trainee showed improvement in her last; she added blinkers for that one. This filly gets a significant rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione. This Bernardini-bred will need her best in what I consider a wide-open race. Others: :9:, :3:, :6:, :11:

Race Five:

:4: Jalen Hurts hung in the stretch at 7 panels on New Years Day. This highly-priced Southern Image-bred gelding now cuts back one furlong. That could be a prescription for a trip to the winner's circle. This Moon Larry-bred gelding has faced better throughout his career. Julien Leparoux reprises the ride for trainer Pat Biancone. Others: :1:, :2:, :3:.

Robert Fischer
01-24-2018, 11:43 AM
Good luck Teach.


Quality analysis.

Robert Fischer
01-24-2018, 12:18 PM
RACE1 - Share much of the same thoughts. My play here is that I'm strongly against the :8: WILDCAT SAINT. Very likely to be favored. Best Last out Beyer. Form looks decent enough (kinda looks like he turned his form around when he broke maiden, and shoulda' won last time while burying foes such as :10:SMART DUDE).
I feel like this is a horse who can't change leads, and his weakness was disguised last race because of the speed collapsing and his perfect trip carrying him forward even on the wrong lead. I'm gambling that he his hampered by his footwork today.
Once you eliminate the favorite, there is a big field. :1::9::11: will have to beat me today, as 'others appear more likely'.
next elimination is :3: BODHI DOG.- 'B.D.' is a bit of a tradeoff for me. I love long shots who ran near a fast pace and faded to outrun their odds. However, this guy has lost ground from the 2nd call to the stretch AND the stretch to the finish, in EVERY race. Not for me.

Leaves me :4::5::6::7::10:


Two of these seem the most consistent :6: TIME WILL TELL and :5:SAL'S JET. Neither is great, but I want one, if not both in the superfecta.

I will key them both in all 4 slots. If I get either one of them on a ticket without the 8, I have a good shot. If I get both, it should be nice.


Bet to Win:
$20 WIN 5, 6
Wager Total $40.00

2nd in an Exacta:
$4 EXA 4, 5, 6, 7, 10
$4 EXA 5, 6
Wager Total $32.00

3rd in a Tri:
$0.50 TRI 4, 5, 6, 7, 10
$0.50 TRI 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10
$0.50 TRI 5, 6
Wager Total $20.00

4th in a Super:
$0.10 SU 4, 5, 6, 7, 10
$0.10 SU 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10
$0.10 SU 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
$0.10 SU 5, 6
Wager Total $28.00


------------------------
Race 2-
:1: ADIOS MIA caught my eye first. Woodbine shippers have run very well, especially droppers. However, this one has severe footwork issues.

:2::4::6: are as logical as the come.
:4: SOMEWHATOPTIMISTIC was gobbled up as a FTS FAV. If greenness is behind her and she runs to her hype it's an easy win today.
:6: LAWLESS LUCY is right where she needs to be to contend today
:2: BODY HIGH has seemingly every angle in the book in her direction. I might rank her slightly below the :4::6: for that reason - We are assuming/projecting her to do new things, and that can be dangerous.
------------------------
:1: ANONYM is a late scratch!
:5: ROGUE PATRIOT is a clear contender with top jock hoping to grind out a win.

:6: ADMIRABLE KISS has footwork issues but remains dangerous here.

:4: CAPT. OVERDRIVE , :7:NEW CHAMPION are the long shot wire-to-wire hopes
-----------------------

PICK 3
http://oi67.tinypic.com/oq9h92.jpg

kaboom
01-24-2018, 01:49 PM
That 10 in the first was a complete monster won in hand like Rocky Vs Glass Joe nice pick! I hit everything the win bet, exscta, triple, superfecta, double with the 6 paid 21.60 amazing start to my day I withdrew $400 and left myself with $100 to start over with! Nice days pay!! Thank You Teach!!!

Teach
01-24-2018, 02:39 PM
Kaboom -

13th round. Hardest punch I ever saw. The rematch with "Jersey Joe" was a joke. I always watched Gillette Friday night fights with my father.

Robert Fischer
01-25-2018, 10:02 AM
[FONT=Arial]

:10: Smart Dude. The ML sez 20-1. Caramba! 20-1! I can't believe this horse will stay anywhere near those odds. This chestnut gelding gets a huge rider switch to Jose Ortiz. This Stephen Got Even-bred was leading to the top of the stretch in his last in this company about a month ago; he faded to 5th. If Ortiz can ration out this gelding's speed for an additional furlong, it will certainly pay dividends. This gelding's only win came at GP on the turf at this distance. Oh, an angle that I like: 3rd start off a layoff. Jose Orseno trains for Patricia Generazio (from "my neck of the woods").

Good one! Right about the odds and the horse.