PDA

View Full Version : "Likely winner" paradox


porchy44
01-19-2018, 12:19 AM
Do you ever notice the following:

You handicap a days card and like a couple of horses with the same jockey riding them. At the end of the day both of the horses run bad, BUT the same jockey has won on different horse or horses.

Conspiracy, randomness. Whatever it is I always take a second look on all the horses the Jockey is on that day.

Does anyone else notice days when a Jockey blows an immortal lock but wins on other horses. Happens frequently if you follow races day to day.

Anyway it is another reason I love this game, Especially if I caught the big price winner.

jay68802
01-19-2018, 12:45 AM
I do a similar play once in a while. I look for the 5-10% jockey, they don't win much but usually have 3-4 mounts a day. What I look for is that occasional time when a jockey like that is going to be on a horse that has a real chance. Then look at his few other mounts and hope to find one that has a similar running style. The jockey seems to have some confidence because he knows he has a chance on his good mount and rides the other horse with the same confidence.