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ultracapper
01-18-2018, 08:14 PM
Been handicapping SoCal for about 17 years now. I've seen the lowest claiming price for older horses go from $10K to $8K, and then to $6,250. I've seen the lowest claiming price for older horses on the turf go from $40k to $25K. I've seen the lowest maiden claiming price for older horses go from $25K to $20K, and now Sunday, January 21, 2018, 6th race, go to $16K.

I hope I'm dead before the $5K maiden claimer comes to Santa Anita.

Edit: Seriously, I had to read the conditions 3 times to make sure I was reading it right.

oughtoh
01-18-2018, 08:31 PM
I remember when the lowest claiming was $12,500. So it has been cut in half. Can't wait till it gets cut in half again. That is like Thursday, 5 mdn races out of 8 races. It is a waste of my time to even a form on those days.

Afleet
01-18-2018, 08:50 PM
Been handicapping SoCal for about 17 years now. I've seen the lowest claiming price for older horses go from $10K to $8K, and then to $6,250. I've seen the lowest claiming price for older horses on the turf go from $40k to $25K. I've seen the lowest maiden claiming price for older horses go from $25K to $20K, and now Sunday, January 21, 2018, 6th race, go to $16K.

I hope I'm dead before the $5K maiden claimer comes to Santa Anita.

Edit: Seriously, I had to read the conditions 3 times to make sure I was reading it right.

its a good time to switch to OP-much better product w/bigger fields

VigorsTheGrey
01-18-2018, 10:35 PM
I wonder if we are now going to see the "LosAlamitoization" of Santa Anita over the next several years where the majority of the racehorse ownership undergoes an "identity transformation"...?

Tom
01-19-2018, 08:27 AM
Those $5K maiden claimers are running there now .....for $16K.

upthecreek
01-19-2018, 09:07 AM
http://www.drf.com/news/handle-sharply-early-santa-anita-meet#nws=mcnewsletter

ultracapper
01-19-2018, 11:37 AM
Those $5K maiden claimers are running there now .....for $16K.

The truth to this statement is scary.

cj
01-19-2018, 11:48 AM
They have so few horses they can't afford to lose the bad ones to GG, TuP, and wherever else they might look for a win.

GMB@BP
01-19-2018, 11:49 AM
Handle may be up do to a really good cards and a bunch of cancellations but this weeks cards are abysmal.

I may try some Sat but Fri and Sun are so bad I didnt even bother downloading the PP.

ultracapper
01-19-2018, 12:04 PM
http://www.drf.com/news/handle-sharply-early-santa-anita-meet#nws=mcnewsletter

Ritvo gets it. Field size is everything. It's coincidental that I'm doing a study on my 2017 bets and race conditions that I handicap. I'll share it when I'm done. But preliminary results show field size trumps quality when generating handle and ultimate win/place prices. That's probably not a surprise to anybody, but I think the results of what I'm looking at will show a pronounced appreciation for larger fields. Another thing that is coming to light is reduced racing days, with more races on those days. The 3 day race weeks Santa Anita had last year, with the 10 and 11 race cards, blew away the 8 race, Thursday-Sunday schedule in relation to win prices, per-race handle and on-track per gambler handle. A number of those 8 race cards saw handle as low as $80 per attendant. Some of those 11 race cards were as high as $300 per on-track patron. Los Al, even with it's quality/size of fields, which are both comparatively poor, had Santa Anita-like on-track per-patron betting numbers on days with 2 or 3 additional races. On week days, there are usually less than 1000 on site at Los Al, but they are there to bet, as they had days of over $400 bet per patron on-track. When the weekend came and they would add a race or 2, the attendance would go up, which is a sign of the more casual gambler attending, but the handle would still be nearly $300 per person on-track, right in line with a 10 race card at Santa Anita. DelMar can't compete with either on a per-patron basis, as a lot of DelMar's attendants are there for the experience rather than to hard-core gamble. Still, DelMar is regularly over $100 per head.

GMB@BP
01-19-2018, 12:07 PM
Ritvo gets it. Field size is everything. It's coincidental that I'm doing a study on my 2017 bets and race conditions that I handicap. I'll share it when I'm done. But preliminary results show field size trumps quality when generating handle and ultimate win/place prices. That's probably not a surprise to anybody, but I think the results of what I'm looking at will show a pronounced appreciation for larger fields. Another thing that is coming to light is reduced racing days, with more races on those days. The 3 day race weeks Santa Anita had last year, with the 10 and 11 race cards, blew away the 8 race, Thursday-Sunday schedule in relation to win prices, per-race handle and on-track per gambler handle. A number of those 8 race cards saw handle as low as $80 per attendant. Some of those 11 race cards were as high as $300 per on-track patron. Los Al, even with it's quality/size of fields, which are both comparatively poor, had Santa Anita-like on-track per-patron betting numbers on days with 2 or 3 additional races. On week days, there are usually less than 1000 on site at Los Al, but they are there to bet, as they had days of over $400 bet per patron on-track. When the weekend came and they would add a race or 2, the attendance would go up, which is a sign of the more casual gambler attending, but the handle would still be nearly $300 per person on-track, right in line with a 10 race card at Santa Anita. DelMar can't compete with either on a per-patron basis, as a lot of DelMar's attendants are there for the experience rather than to hard-core gamble. Still, DelMar is regularly over $100 per head.

If I am going to bet cheaper races I would likely take my money somewhere else other then SA, would imagine it would be easier to find inefficiencies elsewhere.

ultracapper
01-19-2018, 12:27 PM
I think you'll be surprised. Casual gamblers are attracted to the marquis meets. They are the ones that bet the less informed money. DelMar is a literal gold mine if you're betting on horses. When Santa Anita fills the fields and offers an extended card, it allows the more casual player the opportunity to "make a day of it", and it shows in the win prices.

cj
01-19-2018, 12:53 PM
Ritvo gets it. Field size is everything.

Field size is important, but it certainly isn't everything for bettors. If it was EvD and DeD would be the kings of racing I'd guess. There is a balance between field size and quality.

ultracapper
01-19-2018, 01:06 PM
Agree. It has to be admitted that quality cards, with a marquis race, or a menu of multiple stake races, are very attractive to the general betting public. Even if those particular races aren't overly competitive.

Nothing beats a popular horse and/or race.

oughtoh
01-19-2018, 01:21 PM
If I am going to bet cheap races it will not be at SA. There are plenty of cheap tracks around.

ultracapper
01-19-2018, 01:25 PM
I would prefer a better class of horse at SA also. But, from a betting perspective, I'm finding a 10 horse field of $16K N2L is a hell of a lot better race to bet into than a 6 horse field of $40K claimers. The tote board may be the only thing about the $16k claimer that's attractive, but that's my involvement in the game.

Gekish
01-19-2018, 01:32 PM
At the Los Al Satellite Wagering the average age of bettors is about 60 including me who turned 81 yesterday. This is a dying game.

cj
01-19-2018, 01:37 PM
At the Los Al Satellite Wagering the average age of bettors is about 60 including me who turned 81 yesterday. This is a dying game.

I'm not disagreeing, but sure, places like that draw an older crowd. A lot of younger people (and older too, for that matter) are betting from home. Horse racing is always going to lean towards older people that have more time and disposable income.

oughtoh
01-19-2018, 01:41 PM
16nw2 big field is fine. But mdn clm after mdn clm, especially 25k, you can have. No interest in them.

Whosonfirst
01-19-2018, 03:19 PM
At the Los Al Satellite Wagering the average age of bettors is about 60 including me who turned 81 yesterday. This is a dying game.

Well Happy Birthday. IT's good to have hobbies during retirement.

GMB@BP
01-19-2018, 04:24 PM
I'm not disagreeing, but sure, places like that draw an older crowd. A lot of younger people (and older too, for that matter) are betting from home. Horse racing is always going to lean towards older people that have more time and disposable income.

I would argue that a lot of older players who regularly play the game when they have disposable income likely still started when they were younger.

I think gambling is going to expand in this country and not contract, sadly racing has positioned itself as the least desirable form in many of the statistical standpoints.

cj
01-19-2018, 04:37 PM
I would argue that a lot of older players who regularly play the game when they have disposable income likely still started when they were younger.

I think gambling is going to expand in this country and not contract, sadly racing has positioned itself as the least desirable form in many of the statistical standpoints.

I agree they started younger, but those starting younger now are not going to be showing up in OTBs for the most part.

Racing has been stayed pretty level the last several years after a big dropoff, but I agree it is not positioned well for the future. Some serious changes are going to have to be made.

Robert Fischer
01-19-2018, 04:58 PM
Having fun guessing along with the cheap claimers, but it is normally a class that I pass over.

Mainly a fan of colts and/or older horses running for a decent purse in a decent sized field. The other races I play are typically extensions of a multi-race sequence from one of those races, or an angle play that happens to jump off the page.

I think today was like 99% fillies and/or claimers.

Playing around a little with looking at the purse levels in comparison to today's purse and class. So far I think I'm 0-for-3 :D with what I would've come up with, although they weren't 3 amazing discoveries. More of just working through the process for 3 races to see what I came up with.

dlivery
01-19-2018, 08:48 PM
Read the Conditions of the race until it becomes Fuzzy:sleeping:
Like betting on a horse 1/51
Nay I will pass

ubercapper
01-22-2018, 09:38 AM
At the Los Al Satellite Wagering the average age of bettors is about 60 including me who turned 81 yesterday. This is a dying game.

Quite the opposite at Keeneland, where there hundreds of 20 somethings attending the races daily, thousands on the weekend. This is not a dying game.

GMB@BP
01-22-2018, 09:47 AM
Quite the opposite at Keeneland, where there hundreds of 20 somethings attending the races daily, thousands on the weekend. This is not a dying game.

Plenty of younger people at the botique meets where they show up for the party.

There will be 10's of thousands of young people at the Phoenix Open next week, still a dying game....they are not there for the golf.

BadGnus
01-22-2018, 08:27 PM
If this is any help to the discussion of whether this sport is on the decline....

green80
01-23-2018, 10:10 AM
Field size is important, but it certainly isn't everything for bettors. If it was EvD and DeD would be the kings of racing I'd guess. There is a balance between field size and quality.

Constantly bashing our Louisiana racing.:rant:

cj
01-23-2018, 10:15 AM
Constantly bashing our Louisiana racing.:rant:

That wasn't a bash, just facts. Fields sizes are really good there last I checked, but people still don't bet the product much.

classhandicapper
01-23-2018, 12:15 PM
Racing has been stayed pretty level the last several years after a big dropoff, but I agree it is not positioned well for the future. Some serious changes are going to have to be made.

I'm worried that the sharp decline occurred during the financial crisis and now we've been in a somewhat level period while the economy has been growing for the last 8-9 years.

What happens in the next recession?

We could have another significant drop.

The cyclical growing economy may just be masking the long term secular downtrend for awhile.

GMB@BP
01-23-2018, 12:56 PM
I'm worried that the sharp decline occurred during the financial crisis and now we've been in a somewhat level period while the economy has been growing for the last 8-9 years.

What happens in the next recession?

We could have another significant drop.

The cyclical growing economy may just be masking the long term secular downtrend for awhile.

been my point for a while, racing should be way UP, not marginally up.

and if you are down, such as SA, well then you have a major issue to deal with. Though to some extent I have to believe the issue socal has had is also tied to issues the State is having.

Afleet
01-23-2018, 07:47 PM
At the Los Al Satellite Wagering the average age of bettors is about 60 including me who turned 81 yesterday. This is a dying game.

Who is the greatest horse you have seen run live?

Tom
01-24-2018, 03:56 PM
What has the game/tracks done improve attendance?

Oh sure, they have these big stakes days and umbrella giveaways, but what have they done to seriously change the model of the racing game?

Is anyone thinking outside the box?

HalvOnHorseracing
01-24-2018, 08:42 PM
been my point for a while, racing should be way UP, not marginally up.

and if you are down, such as SA, well then you have a major issue to deal with. Though to some extent I have to believe the issue socal has had is also tied to issues the State is having.

I don't think handle would increase as fast as you might expect when you can bet every race of a 10-race card for a total of $1 at most tracks.

Afleet
01-24-2018, 09:22 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaKRByNhb0Y

Afleet
01-24-2018, 09:26 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHz70JTLLKg

ultracapper
01-24-2018, 11:11 PM
First state bred claiming race I can ever remember being run in SoCal goes as the 7th Saturday.