Best Bet Sunday 1/14

[Ray2000]

And my only bet today :)

Flamboro R9......#4 Mister Big Top-10/1......Roy, Louis Philippe
HORSES & GELDINGS - N/W $3000. LAST 3 (W/O $5000. LAST 5 N/E) Also Eligible: LITTLEBITASWAGGER
Huge Driver change, Roy running at 25% last 30 days.
Don't expect 10/1 but tip-sheet* has Big Top 4th (3-6-2-4) so maybe some value.

Betting Win/Place and Superfecta 4 on top 2,3,5,6,7
Good Luck All



*http://www.flamborodowns.com/programs/RacepicksJan14.pdf

[tyler522]

Ray, been using Betmix , what win% , ROI & results size do u feel is acceptable when running data? I use 5 years, however at time results yields 15 horses 6 wins win% 40% return $47 ROI % 256. From ur experience what is the sweet spot for # results # wins win%? ROI% ? Thanks in advance

[Ray2000]

Ray, been using Betmix , what win% , ROI & results size do u feel is acceptable when running data? I use 5 years, however at time results yields 15 horses 6 wins win% 40% return $47 ROI % 256. From ur experience what is the sweet spot for # results # wins win%? ROI% ? Thanks in advance

When it comes to Win% the short answer is 500 races.

The long answer is you have to ask the question this way . .
How many races do I need to be 95% sure that my Win percentage is real, plus or minus 4 percentage points.?

Formula N = (SQRT(p*q)^2*Z^2)/(E^2)

p = estimate Win % (Example 40%)
q = 1 - p
Z = 2 for 95% sure
E = acceptable margin of error (Example .04)

N calculates to 576

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When it comes to ROI, it's much more complicated and I've never found a good layman's discussion. There might be one in the T-Bred Forum but it's a tough search.