Ten by Ten on Turf

[Aner]

Ten by Ten on Turf

It seems to me that more long shots pop in on turf than on dirt. I'm going to limit my picks to turf races that have at least 10 entries before scratches and I will only consider horses that are 10:1 or more on the morning line. If such a horse has some competitive feature ( past class, recent good race, closing kick, etc.) I will bet $2 to win.

Today's picks are:

GP 1-----#2 Mymartina
GP 1-----#10 Monetary System
GP 2-----#4 Knight Errant
GP 2-----#5 Leroy's Image
GP 4-----#14 Fort Dixie
GP 12----#3 Lone Sentry
GP 12----#5 Street Copper

FG 2-----#2 Galilea
FG 2-----#13 Tizahandful
FG 4-----#8 Neverquitdrea
FG 6-----#4 Shes a True Beauty
FG 6-----#6 Scatter Gun
FG 8-----#7 Applicator

SA 6-----#6 Conquest Daddyo

[Aner]

10 bets. $20 in the hole.

GP 1-----#2 Mymartina
GP 1-----#10 Monetary System
GP 2-----#4 Knight Errant
GP 2-----#5 Leroy's Image
GP 4-----#14 Fort Dixie---------------scratched
GP 12----#3 Lone Sentry
GP 12----#5 Street Copper

FG 2-----#2 Galilea------------------off turf
FG 2-----#13 Tizahandful-----------off turf
FG 4-----#8 Neverquitdrea---------scratched
FG 6-----#4 Shes a True Beauty
FG 6-----#6 Scatter Gun
FG 8-----#7 Applicator

SA 6-----#6 Conquest Daddyo

[Aner]

Picks for 01/14/18


GP 7-----#9 Huaquechula
GP 9-----#3 G Q Coverup
GP 11----#12 Really Proud

Tam 6-----#7 Fierce Tide

SA 1-----#7 Moneigh Moproblems
SA 1-----#10 Odyssey Explorer

[kaboom]

Awesome job with the 12 at Gulfstream race 11 $900 exacta I boxed him with all!

[dlivery]

:popcorn::puke:

Just like my pappy said your not going to Win them all

Good Skill going forward

[Aner]

Picks for 01/14/18


GP 7-----#9 Huaquechula
GP 9-----#3 G Q Coverup
GP 11----#12 Really Proud-----XXXX, 11.20

Tam 6-----#7 Fierce Tide

SA 1-----#7 Moneigh Moproblems
SA 1-----#10 Odyssey Explorer

For the day: 0/6 = -$12
Overall: 0/16 = -$32

[Aner]

Picks for 1/20/18

GP 3-----#2 Dream Trip
GP 8-----#10 Dominate
GP 10----#5 Katinka
GP 12----#13 King Nephrite

Tam 9----#3 Red Curls
Tam 11---#1 American Meriot

FG 4-----#5 Uncle Pepe

[Aner]

For the day----0/7 = -$14
Overall---------0/23 = -$46

Picks for 1/20/18

GP 3-----#2 Dream Trip
GP 8-----#10 Dominate
GP 10----#5 Katinka
GP 12----#13 King Nephrite

Tam 9----#3 Red Curls
Tam 11---#1 American Meriot

FG 4-----#5 Uncle Pepe

[Robert Fischer]

Good way to practice long shots.

Rooting for you to get on a roll.

[Aner]

Picks for 1/21/18

GP 6-----#7 Get a Move On
GP 8-----#8 Immunity
GP 10----#1 Allowances
GP 10----#6 Full of Joy

Tam 10---#3 Run Amy Run

FG 8------#5 Whisky Biz
FG 8------#10 West Village

SA 9------#10 Kennedie Sky

[Robert Fischer]

GP 8-----#8 Immunity

Immunity is interesting.

A little surprised that they are willing to lose Ray's The Bar for $16k today. Currently 2-5...
Not exactly a suspicious drop, but they aren't protecting what looks like a tough horse.

[Aner]

Still a maiden.

For the day----0/7 = -$14
Overall---------0/30 = -$60




Picks for 1/21/18

GP 6-----#7 Get a Move On
GP 8-----#8 Immunity
GP 10----#1 Allowances--------scratched
GP 10----#6 Full of Joy

Tam 10---#3 Run Amy Run

[Aner]

Picks for 1/27/18:

GP 1-----#4 Moi
GP 1-----#15 Mechuda
GP 5-----#2 Mathematician
GP 5-----#10 Sensational Sam
GP 6-----#7 Cousin Claire
GP 6-----#9 Sylphide
GP 10----#4 Oak Bluffs
GP10----#11 Blind Ambition
GP 11----#8 Perdona

Tam 10---#3 Moonlight Mischief
Tam 10---#13 To Your Health

FG 3------#1 Fire Lake
FG 5------#3 Sharm El Sheikh
FG 9------#10 Will Ye Go Lassie

SA 6------#3 Hardboot
SA 10-----#1 Nevermissesabeat
SA 10-----#13 Ready Eddie

[Robert Fischer]

Tomorrow is mandatory payout day for the Rainbow 6. May have zero effect on the races themselves, but a couple prices in the sequence makes for a big payout.

[Aner]

For the day----0/12 = -$14
Overall---------0/42 = -$84




Picks for 1/27/18:

GP 1-----#4 Moi
GP 1-----#15 Mechuda
GP 5-----#2 Mathematician
GP 5-----#10 Sensational Sam
GP 6-----#7 Cousin Claire
GP 6-----#9 Sylphide
GP 10----#4 Oak Bluffs
GP10----#11 Blind Ambition----------------XXX, 20.40
GP 11----#8 Perdona

Tam 10---#3 Moonlight Mischief
Tam 10---#13 To Your Health------------scratched

FG 3------#1 Fire Lake----------------------off turf (9.20, 5.40)
FG 5------#3 Sharm El Sheikh-------------race cancelled
FG 9------#10 Will Ye Go Lassie-----------race cancelled

SA 6------#3 Hardboot---------------------scratched
SA 10-----#1 Nevermissesabeat
SA 10-----#13 Ready Eddie

[Aner]

Picks for 2/3/18 Hope Springs eternal.

Tam 8-----#10 Kaiser d'Light
Tam 8-----#14 Fierce Tide
Tam 10----#6 Triple Serious

GP 1-------#9 Bodhi Dog
GP 3-------#3 King Nephrite
GP 3-------#10 Cotton To
GP 5-------#2 Electrifying
GP 5-------#8 Starship Frontier
GP 7-------#14 Preacher Power
GP 9-------#8 My Point Exactly
GP 9-------#10 Zitman
GP 11------#10 Machtree

SA 1-------#7 Movie Moment
SA 4-------#9 Zuzanna
SA 9-------#7 Sturdy One

[Aner]

For the day 0/13 = $26 lost
Overall 0/55 = $110 lost


Tam 8-----#10 Kaiser d'Light
Tam 8-----#14 Fierce Tide---------------scratched
Tam 10----#6 Triple Serious

GP 1-------#9 Bodhi Dog
GP 3-------#3 King Nephrite
GP 3-------#10 Cotton To
GP 5-------#2 Electrifying
GP 5-------#8 Starship Frontier
GP 7-------#14 Preacher Power-----------scratched
GP 9-------#8 My Point Exactly
GP 9-------#10 Zitman
GP 11------#10 Machtree

SA 1-------#7 Movie Moment
SA 4-------#9 Zuzanna
SA 9-------#7 Sturdy One

[Aner]

Picks for 2/10/18:

GP 1-----#8 Alyssa and a Lisa
GP 11----#4 Eye of a Jedi
GP 11----#11 Street Copper

Tam 4----#8 Lighthouse Sound
Tam 6----#6 Cinder
Tam 6----#10 Wantagh Queen
Tam 11---#2 Noble Thought

FG 4-----#3 Will Ye Go Lassie
FG 6-----#6 Decant
FG 6-----#10 Tizahandful
FG 8-----#13 Strut N Stomp

[Aner]

For the day 0/19 = $20 lost
Overall 0/65 = $130 lost

Picks for 2/10/18:

GP 1-----#8 Alyssa and a Lisa
GP 11----#4 Eye of a Jedi
GP 11----#11 Street Copper

Tam 4----#8 Lighthouse Sound
Tam 6----#6 Cinder
Tam 6----#10 Wantagh Queen
Tam 11---#2 Noble Thought

FG 4-----#3 Will Ye Go Lassie
FG 6-----#6 Decant
FG 6-----#10 Tizahandful
FG 8-----#13 Strut N Stomp ------off turf

[Aner]

Picks for 2/17/18

GP 5-----#8 Gift of Glory
GP 7-----#5 Changewilldoyagood
GP 9-----#5 Espresso Caliente
GP 10----#1 Dynatail
GP 12----#11 Creaky Cricket

Tam 4-----#10 House of Cortez
Tam 9-----#5 Bernardinis Arrow
Tam 9-----#12 Lemon Drop Twist
Tam 11----#12 Flax Flower

FG 4------#2 Partly Mocha
FG 4------#8 Imma Bling
FG 8------#4 One Mean Man
FG 8------#7 Applicator
FG 10-----#8 Special Forces
FG 10-----#14 Come On Dover

SA 10-----#4 Plain Wrap

[Robert Fischer]

tougher than it seems!

[Aner]

Real bleak. Has worked in the past and I'm too bullheaded to quit.

[Robert Fischer]

Real bleak. Has worked in the past and I'm too bullheaded to quit.

It's a game of streaks...

You could be doing great selecting and still be on a bad random streak when dealing with long shots. Then you may hit 2 in a day...

Everyone has an opinion, so I may as well chime in.
I feel like these kind of results are relatively more likely to occur in races with a high degree of randomness/chaos/entropy than in races where I happen to 'like' a longer shot.
I think you already touched on that with your 'Turf' pre-selection, but it could be expanded upon.

What are the main things that cause a chaos race?
Not a question that I have a strong answer to.
-Sometimes a race just doesn't have any dominant horses, so by default, the public bets the 'best' of that bunch...
-The above can be in any race, but sometimes it seems to happen more often than usual in maiden claimers or cheap claimers. Occasionally a full field of 'bad' horses is carded, and it just takes a little bit of a bad trip with the 'most likely' horse, to allow a long shot to wire the field, or a cavalry charge to reward whoever happens to still be running in the stretch...
-Sometimes it's as simple as a type of race. For a while last year, full-field turf sprints at Belmont seemed to often be chaotic.

What are the best types of long shots for these races?
Another question I wish I had the answer to.
-I want long shots that either will be up on the lead(however unlikely they are to get the distance), or long shots that have some semblance of a stretch run((doesn't have to be a 'deep' closer)should the late flow of the race 'move them up'). These long shots tease that they have a chance to at least be in position (on the lead, or with the stretch-runners late), but they generally either have demonstrated some success in recent races at a significantly lower class level, or they have 'proven to be dull' at this level(or above) and would really need to be brave or get a good trip today.

[Aner]

What is the record for most losses without a win?


For the day 0/12 = $24 lost
Overall---- 0/77 = $154 lost

Picks for 2/17/18

GP 5-----#8 Gift of Glory
GP 7-----#5 Changewilldoyagood
GP 9-----#5 Espresso Caliente
GP 10----#1 Dynatail--------------------------scratched
GP 12----#11 Creaky Cricket

Tam 4-----#10 House of Cortez
Tam 9-----#5 Bernardinis Arrow
Tam 9-----#12 Lemon Drop Twist------------scratched
Tam 11----#12 Flax Flower-------------------scratched

FG 4------#2 Partly Mocha
FG 4------#8 Imma Bling----------------------scratched
FG 8------#4 One Mean Man
FG 8------#7 Applicator
FG 10-----#8 Special Forces
FG 10-----#14 Come On Dover

SA 10-----#4 Plain Wrap

[Robert Fischer]

You got me thinking about long shots (not part of my everyday game).

Some for today that seemed to fit my strategy.

GP R5 #2 THOR'S HAMMER
GP R5 #8 STRIKING HEIR
*this was a jump off the page race, as I think the favorite BELLE TAPISSERIE is vulnerable/false, but it may well simply be the 2nd choice ml for Todd Pletcher #4 ZIPPY WILLY- saw a workout video for this one and hinted at a high cruising speed and good fundamentals. Disappointing when you find a false favorite, and the 2nd choice wins... #8 is somewhat cool because took money first time out, is one of the only to show early pace in a race vs many FTS, and goes to hot-hand Irad Ortiz after a freshening.

GP R10 #4 RAHY MOMENTA
GP R10 #5 LADY OF SHADY LANE
GP R10 #6 GRANDTASTIC NEWS

TAM R4 #1 HAND ME THE CASH

TAM R5 #6 NINA'S PATIENCE
*One of the few here who aren't a wire-to-wire prayer. Worth a look at the interesting race placement recently vs winners (still mdn), and the gallop-out in that race.

OP R3 #1 CLASSIC PURSUIT

FG R3 #6 MELLWOOD SUMMER

FG R5 #9 BOLD STAR

FG R6 #4 SWEET IDI
FG R6 #8 SOUL OF THE HERO

FG R8 #2 BRITISH HUMOR
FG R8 #6 KING OF ALL MEDIA

[Alwaysonpoint36]

What is the record for most losses without a win?


Keep swinging ;)

[Aner]

Picks for 3/3/18

GP 9-----#6 Electrifying
GP 9-----#10 The Zip Zip Man
GP 13----#10 Run Time

Tam 6-----#7 Vintage Time
Tam 6-----#9 Pep the Champ
Tam 8-----#7 Husband's Folly
Tam 10----#1 Full of Joy
Tam 10----#8 Game Girl

FG 6-------#5 Crackling Bread
FG 8-------#4 Zeke
FG 8-------#5 Golden Dragon

SA 8-------#11 Cynthiana

[Aner]

For the day 0/11 = $22 loss
Overall 0/88 = $176 loss


Picks for 3/3/18

GP 9-----#6 Electrifying
GP 9-----#10 The Zip Zip Man
GP 13----#10 Run Time

Tam 6-----#7 Vintage Time
Tam 6-----#9 Pep the Champ
Tam 8-----#7 Husband's Folly
Tam 10----#1 Full of Joy
Tam 10----#8 Game Girl

FG 6-------#5 Crackling Bread-------XXXX, 13.60
FG 8-------#4 Zeke
FG 8-------#5 Golden Dragon

SA 8-------#11 Cynthiana--------------scratched

[Aner]

Picks for 3/10/18

Tam 5-----#2 Marksman
Tam 7-----#6 Smart Remark
Tam 9-----#7 Dynatail
Tam 10----#11 Souper Striking

GP 9-------#5 Adventist
GP 10------#1 Cotton To
GP 13------#2 Pretty Perfection
GP 13------#5 Always Thinking

SA 1-------#10 Desert Stone
SA 3-------#7 Temple Keys
SA 8-------#12 Proud Heroine
SA 11------#9 Temple Princess

[Aner]

For the day 1/10 = $5.20 profit
Overall 1/99 = $170.80 loss

Picks for 3/10/18

Tam 5-----#2 Marksman
Tam 7-----#6 Smart Remark
Tam 9-----#7 Dynatail
Tam 10----#11 Souper Striking

GP 9-------#5 Adventist
GP 10------#1 Cotton To----------------25.20, 14.60
GP 13------#2 Pretty Perfection
GP 13------#5 Always Thinking

SA 1-------#10 Desert Stone----------scratched
SA 3-------#7 Temple Keys
SA 8-------#12 Proud Heroine
SA 11------#9 Temple Princess---------off turf

[Aner]

Picks for 3/17/18

GP 10-----#1 Say the Word
GP 10-----#7 Redoute's Light
GP 12-----#9 Porter Street
GP 12-----#11 Cruz Diez
GP 13-----#9 Gods Greatness

[Aner]

For the day 0/5 = $10 loss
Overall 1/104 = $180.80 loss


Picks for 3/17/18

GP 10-----#1 Say the Word
GP 10-----#7 Redoute's Light
GP 12-----#9 Porter Street
GP 12-----#11 Cruz Diez
GP 13-----#9 Gods Greatness

[Aner]

Picks for 3/24/18

Tam 8-----#1 Annie O'Schiller
Tam 10----#8 Halo's for Dude

FG 1-------#4 Don't Split Tens
FG 7-------#2 Southern Moon
FG 7-------#9 Ruthless Child
FG 12------#8 Fire Lake
FG 12------#11 Sand Pit Road

SA 1-------#9 Buymeabond
SA 4-------#10 Clem Dela Clem
SA 9-------#5 Oscar Dominguez

[Aner]

For the day 0/7 = $14 loss
Overall 1/111 = $194.80 loss

Picks for 3/24/18

Tam 8-----#1 Annie O'Schiller
Tam 10----#8 Halo's for Dude

FG 1-------#4 Don't Split Tens-----------scratched
FG 7-------#2 Southern Moon
FG 7-------#9 Ruthless Child
FG 12------#8 Fire Lake
FG 12------#11 Sand Pit Road

SA 1-------#9 Buymeabond--------------scratched
SA 4-------#10 Clem Dela Clem---------scratched
SA 9-------#5 Oscar Dominguez

[Aner]

Picks for 3/31/18

GP 7-----#10 Glitz
GP 9-----#4 Logic
GP 9-----#10 Sensational Sam
GP 11----#6 Grizzel

FG 5-----#8 Brilliant Interest

SA 9-----#2 Lord Admiral

[Aner]

OK. Bad idea. I give up.