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View Full Version : Let's handicap the Jerome S.


letswastemoney
01-10-2018, 10:03 PM
I don't see any big surprises so far.

:1: Coltandmississippi - Started his career off nicely at Saratoga. But the subsequent three races are not great. While Todd Pletcher trains, that doesn't automatically mean he is a contender. Needs move forward.

:2: Seven Trumpets - All three starts for this Dale Romans runner came in sprints, and this is a one-turn route. A step forward is possible. He did beat New York Central, who returned to win next out. Also, Nov. 25 runner-up Battle Station is a decent horse. Chance.

:3: Regalian - Difficult to trust off a slow maiden claiming-level win.

:4: Factor This - Most of his route efforts are decent. Still, according to BRIS the trainer is 0 for 5 in graded stakes over the past year. The BRIS Speed Figure for the Dec. 17 win is nothing special. Wait and see for now.

:5: Smooth B - Drowned by nine lengths in an ungraded Parx stakes limited to Pennsylvania breds. Trainer is 0 for 18 in graded stakes.

:6: Old Time Revival - Nifty pedigree for this son of Brethren. Second dam is Precious Feather, who produced champion filly Awesome Feather. Still, is he fast enough? Throw out those two five-furlong races. The maiden breaker at seven furlongs is something to build on, and he does show a recent bullet. Maybe this one can hang around late for a share.

:7: Firenze Fire - Class of the field won the Champagne. Sure, it had a nice pace setup, but he also won the Sanford at Saratoga a few months earlier. He is obviously the best horse on paper, and it will be hard to go against him.

:8: Glennwood - Not seeing it. Recently lost by eight lengths to Seven Trumpets, and had to break his maiden in a 20k claimer two starts back. Pass.

Conclusion

Firenze Fire
Seven Trumpets
Old Time Revival

*subject to change

Robert Fischer
01-11-2018, 12:59 PM
Tough betting race for me.

Only interesting thing I can come up with:

:3: Regalian - Difficult to trust off a slow maiden claiming-level win.

:ThmbUp: I like that the :3: seemed to appreciate both the change of hands and the added distance.
I like that he'll be the 1st toss of many players. If he can trip-out and hit the board he adds value.

:ThmbDown: I don't like that he won forwardly-placed in a slow paced race.


If he's completely lost on the tote board, he's mildly interesting to round out a tri or super.


Otherwise, looks like a race where the public will be very sharp.

classhandicapper
01-12-2018, 10:26 AM
I've been a Firenze Fire fan. I think ALL his races prior to the Champagne were better than they looked. The one question I would have about him is that I heard he was sick briefly before the BC Juvenile and they were debating whether or not to even run. He ran poorly and then didn't work for about 6 weeks before breezing 3 times. It's kind of hard to know exactly where he is form wise. He's probably just too good for these anyway, but it would not shock me if he's not 100%.

ubercapper
01-12-2018, 11:30 AM
I like the opportunities offered in this race so much I made it one of my blog races at Amwager (the link to which is in the selections thread).

I think Firenze Fire is vulnerable and will be overbet to boot on the class drop. He won the Champagne with a 93 Equibase Figure, no better than the figures Old Time Revival and Seven Trumpets earned in their most recent races. Firenze Fire can win but isn't a standout particularly as both Old Time Revival and Seven Trumpets both have significant upside in terms of improvement off their most recent races.

Additionally, Old Time Revival, being a son of Brethren (by Distorted Humor and a half-brother to Super Saver) should love the likely wet track to boot.

I'm dutching win bets on Old Time Revival and Seven Trumpets, then splitting the favorites by playing exacta boxes between Old Time Revival and Seven Trumpets, then Old Time Revival and Firenze Fire.

classhandicapper
01-12-2018, 12:47 PM
He won the Champagne with a 93 Equibase Figure, no better than the figures Old Time Revival and Seven Trumpets earned in their most recent races.

As mentioned by the OP, he also had a good setup that day after what I thought were 3 against the bias or flow races before that.