View Full Version : There's Gold In Them Their Hills!

01-10-2018, 10:09 AM
Bloomberg News reportedly published a story about the Chinese government possibly reevaluating its massive holdings of U.S. Treasury securities.

If the Chinese follow through, it would suggest rising interest rates and rising inflation. In a rising inflation environment, hard assets, e.g, gold, silver, etc. are generally preferred over paper money.

All this is speculative; yet the potential scenario exists for a rise in gold and silver. As a disclaimer: I own, and have for several years, gold and silver stocks (I currently own a top-tier gold stock) as an insurance policy for these type of events. Everyone is a free agent. Yet, it is my opinion that you might, in light of this event, consider gold and silver.

01-10-2018, 10:32 AM
the bonds have been on the verge of cracking at least 50 times prior to this one. maybe this is the time. the bond market was in a bull for 37 years, unprecedented to anything.

if China really were to stop buying the bonds, why would they say anything in public?

what is pretty well known is that China wants the yuan to be the reserve currency of the world backed by gold. i am not so sure there is enough gold to back any currency now. i know that China is not only the largest producer of gold these days, but they are also the largest purchaser out the back door on gold. and they don't allow any of the metal they mine to leave their country.

under those terms and the fact that the leader of India wants to get re-elected and there is talk that he is going loosen up on the gold tariff's makes for interesting times ahead in the precious metals sectors.

01-10-2018, 11:29 AM
This may sound like apples and oranges. Yet, hear me out.

Years ago, I used to go fishing for “blues” on open-party boats out of Niantic, CT. I recall one time we motored out about 5 or 10 miles into Long Island Sound and put our poles in the water. Nothing. About an hour later, we tried another spot. Nothing. Then, we moved again. Nothing. I was becoming discouraged. The warm sun beating down... Some in the group reeled in their lines and headed below deck. All of the sudden, it was Oklahoma Land Boom. The California Gold Rush. A large school of blues were hitting our bait with reckless abandon. It was a feeding frenzy. We could see them break the water. On board, we we're going over and under. Wherever the fish’s movement took us. When we returned to the dock, there were a lot of happy fisherman. Myself included. To add the marischino cherry to the whipped cream, I won the the party-boat pool...by a nose. Or, should I say an ounce. Four fish and all expenses paid.

This current economic situation reminds me of all that. I believe a seminal event may be just down the road. Now, the new Fed chief is saying he wanted to wait until this coming summer to raise rates instead of this past December. As Lamboguy mentioned in his post, the bond market has been in a bull phase for nearly 40 years! Has the worm turned?

01-11-2018, 11:42 AM
$1358.50 is the upper resistance mark for gold. If we were to break through that barrier, there's no telling where gold could go...through the roof?

01-13-2018, 09:52 AM
$1358.50 is the upper resistance mark for gold. If we were to break through that barrier, there's no telling where gold could go...through the roof?
It looks like the last death cross on gold happened back in Oct. 2013. It appears like the Golden cross just occurred in December, so you may be onto something long term. 1358.50 is a very short term resistance level, I think before it really takes off, gold may need to break through 1377 and then 1388. After that who knows? Either way, good analysis.

01-13-2018, 10:54 AM
$1650 is in clear sight now for gold. the dollar looks awful these days and that is the main driver for the precious metals complex and other commodities.

right now the crypto-currency market is a very small one, i have no idea if its real or if its going to implode. my main problem with them is that there are to many of them and not all of them are going to be around. if i owned the crypto's i would be swapping them out for precious metals now. if you happen to miss the one that has the big run, you just miss it. but chances are if you get in now you will lose.

01-16-2018, 07:24 PM
More than ever I'm convinced - maybe not in my lifetime - that fiat currencies, i.e. the dollar, will fall by the wayside. We've been in a disinflationary environment for nearly the last 40 years (that's about the only thing that has prevented an inflationary spiral). Not since gold moved up exponentially in 1980 have we seen increased hints of inflation on the horizon.

Moreover, the Central Banks can put so many fingers in the dike, but, in the end, they can't stop inflation from breaking through. This can spell disaster. Economic disaster. Interest rates can soar. The cost of goods and services can skyrocket. It already has. Have you recently had your car repaired or a plumber fix your toilet? You know what I mean.

Personally, I believe it's quite possible that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin along with gold will supplant fiat currencies. I believe we are on the precipice of a paper-money calamity. Monopoly money may be worth more. Remember the hyperinflation of Germany's Weimar Republic during the early-1920s. Germans papered their rooms with the stuff.

Everybody's a free agent, but I am seriously looking into collectibles, gold and silver coins, even baseball cards.

My final thought: I would consider being as diversified as possible. It's easy to get lulled into a false sense of security. Times can change. Sometimes, on a dime (the stock market crash of the fall of 1929). I believe times - economic times - are changing. Maybe at first gradually, but then... Now if my mother hadn't thrown out my Mickey Mantle rookie card.

Tape Reader
01-16-2018, 08:03 PM
Now if my mother hadn't thrown out my Mickey Mantle rookie card.[/FONT][/SIZE]

Flashback 40 years: Baseball card show.

“Dad, you have to lend me ten dollars to buy this 1962 Mickey Mantle card.”

Me: No way. It doesn’t even come with bubble gum!

Present: I just emailed my son. “What was that Mickey Mantle card that I loaned you ten dollars to buy? Son: 62 Mantle.

Me: How much is it worth today?

Son: Sure, your words. “Whatever someone will pay.”

Me: Ha ha, Funny answer.

Son: Few hundred. Want to buy it back?

01-16-2018, 09:55 PM
If I still had all the baseball cards that were put in the spokes of my bike I would be rich now.

01-24-2018, 09:23 AM
About two weeks ago, I posted an article on gold in which I stated that I felt the short-term upper resistance mark for gold was $1,358.50 (I know that there are some who feel that that resistance level is somewhat higher, e.g., $1,370s, $1,380s).

Whatever your thoughts, I believe "the worm has turned," at least when it comes to gold, I see that prices this morning are higher; they've jumped over this $1,350 level.

I'll preface what I'm going to say by mentioning that I own shares of a top-tier gold mining company. I'll also state that I've always purchased gold as an "insurance policy," as a hedge against an unexpected "black swan" events.

Everyone is a free agent. You do as your finances and risk tolerance allows you. Yet, in my opinion, this would appear to be an opportune time to consider investing gold.

01-24-2018, 11:59 AM
the dollar got slammed today its below 90 right now. back in 2007 the dollar hit a low of 72. the last time the dollar was that low gold got to $1900. the difference this time around is there is much more demand for gold, there are banks that have heavy short positions in gold as well and you could get some rapid acceleration until things even off.

01-26-2018, 09:55 AM
First, Secretary of the Treasury Mnuchin talks it up; then President Trump talks it down. Just goes to show how much significance is given to the words of elected officials, how much impact those words can have on the price of gold (and just about everything else).

Yes, the price of gold has been on a recent short-term roller-coaster ride. Yet, I still believe (I mentioned I own shares in a gold-mining company) that over the long haul, the price of gold is on an upward swing.

As a sidebar: The recent gold-price swings only reaffirms why I, personally, do not like to get involved with options.

There will come a time that elected officials' comments on the value of gold will prove meaningless and ineffectual. When that time comes, you'll know that the price of gold will be out of the hands of the Central Bankers.

Personally, I would recommend gold as an "insurance policy" against what many call: "Black Swan" events, unexpected natural, e.g., tsunami, earthquake, volcanic activity, etc. or possible man-made, e.g., nuclear missiles, war in the Middle East, lone-wolf terror attacks, escalating U.S.-Chinese tensions, etc.

In conclusion, I believe that the price of gold is on an upward progression. Sometimes, the rise of precious metals can be both quick and exponential, i.e., 1980. They can be like sharp upward thrusts. In a linear sense, like the sheer, straight-up cliff of El Capitan in Yosemite. If you can catch the upward spiral, it can be extremely lucrative, possibly even life-changing. Yet, these events -- like Halley's Comet -- only come around every so often.

02-16-2018, 09:41 AM
We're about to break a "neckline" in gold, a reverse head-and-shoulders. If we can get past $1,358, I believe we move higher.