LeComte S. (Grade III)

[Afleet]

Very interesting betting race w/a large field. Principe G hung out to dry? Will Instilled Regard handle the ship? Who do you like?

LeComte S. (Grade III) POST TIME - 5:03 PM


1 Lone Sailor (KY) 3/C L M Mena 116 T M Amoss 15/1

2 Snapper Sinclair (KY) 3/C L A Beschizza 122 S M Asmussen 20/1

3 Wonder Gadot (ON) 3/F L J R Velazquez 117 M E Casse 6/1

4 Analyze This Jet (KY) 3/C L S Risenhoover 122 T Eoff 30/1

5 Kowboy Karma (KY)3/G L B J Hernandez, Jr. 120 J L Jones 6/1

6 Believe in Royalty (KY)3/C L R Albarado 118 J L Jones 15/1

7 Night Strike (OK) 3/C L C H Borel 122 W B Calhoun 30/1

8 Zing Zang (KY) 3/C L S Bridgmohan 116 S M Asmussen 15/1

9 Zeke (KY) 3/G L J Bravo 118 M Stidham 15/1

10 Instilled Regard (KY) 3/C L J Castellano 116 J Hollendorfer 4/1

11 Ciaran (KY) 3/G L M Garcia 116 T Morley 30/1

12 Principe Guilherme (KY) 3/C L F Geroux 120 S M Asmussen 5/2

13 Prince Lucky (PA) 3/C L J R Leparoux 122 J L Jones 8/1

14 Ebben (KY) 3/G L C J Lanerie 122 S Margolis 20/1
Also Eligibles:

15 Trigger Warning (KY) 3/C S Doyle 116 J Lejzerowicz 20/1

[Afleet]

Did Lanerie choose Ebben over Zing Zang?

[jocko699]

Very interesting betting race w/a large field. Principe G hung out to dry? Will Instilled Regard handle the ship? Who do you like?

LeComte S. (Grade III) POST TIME - 5:03 PM


1 Lone Sailor (KY) 3/C L M Mena 116 T M Amoss 15/1

2 Snapper Sinclair (KY) 3/C L A Beschizza 122 S M Asmussen 20/1

3 Wonder Gadot (ON) 3/F L J R Velazquez 117 M E Casse 6/1

4 Analyze This Jet (KY) 3/C L S Risenhoover 122 T Eoff 30/1

5 Kowboy Karma (KY)3/G L B J Hernandez, Jr. 120 J L Jones 6/1

6 Believe in Royalty (KY)3/C L R Albarado 118 J L Jones 15/1

7 Night Strike (OK) 3/C L C H Borel 122 W B Calhoun 30/1

8 Zing Zang (KY) 3/C L S Bridgmohan 116 S M Asmussen 15/1

9 Zeke (KY) 3/G L J Bravo 118 M Stidham 15/1

10 Instilled Regard (KY) 3/C L J Castellano 116 J Hollendorfer 4/1

11 Ciaran (KY) 3/G L M Garcia 116 T Morley 30/1

12 Principe Guilherme (KY) 3/C L F Geroux 120 S M Asmussen 5/2

13 Prince Lucky (PA) 3/C L J R Leparoux 122 J L Jones 8/1

14 Ebben (KY) 3/G L C J Lanerie 122 S Margolis 20/1
Also Eligibles:

15 Trigger Warning (KY) 3/C S Doyle 116 J Lejzerowicz 20/1

5/2 on Instilled Regard would be a steal IMO.

[Afleet]

5/2 on Instilled Regard would be a steal IMO.

Mckenzie surely flattered him winning easily yesterday but against a short field

[Afleet]

Would think the filly would scratch, but Casse has one of the favorites in the Silverbulletday Stakes earlier on the card where Gadot is cross entered

[letswastemoney]

Probably Instilled Regard for me too. The Los Alamitos Futurity, despite some short field sizes the past few years, has been a worthy Grade I.

[jocko699]

Mckenzie surely flattered him winning easily yesterday but against a short field

Be interested in the number McKinzie gets from yesterday.

[GMB@BP]

Be interested in the number McKinzie gets from yesterday.

97 beyer, 120 timeform

Isnt the Assmussen horse supposed to be the next gun runner?

[jocko699]

97 beyer, 120 timeform

Isnt the Assmussen horse supposed to be the next gun runner?

I am not buying it.

[Afleet]

Ciaran will scratch-I though he could hit the super and I wasn't even drinking;). The AE draws in

[Afleet]

Kowboy Karma finished 3 lengths behind Good Magic in the Champagne. LArry Jones has 3 horse signed on, Assman has 3 also

[Tom]

97 Beyer for a three year old.
Like my feet, haven't seen that in a while!

[jay68802]

97 Beyer for a three year old.
Like my feet, haven't seen that in a while!

Dicky-Do syndrome?

That's when your belly sticks out farther than your Dicky-Do.

[jay68802]

The LeComte


:1: Lone Sailor 15/1 One of the more interesting runners here. Gets blinkers for the first time and the trainer is solid with this move. Like his Street Sense race and look for the same running line here. Contender.

:2: Snapper Sinclair 20/1 Going from turf to dirt and the jockey named does not add confidence. No thanks.

:3: Wonder Gadot 6/1 This girl has done nothing wrong in 5 races. Likes to win and one of my favorites in the saddle. Contender.

:4: Analyze This Jet 30/1 Ok, I'm analyzing,.......to slow. Out.

:5: Kowboy Karma 6/1 Larry Jones off a break showing a bullet work. Has run well enough to win figure wise but the best winning figure has been sprinting and the best route figure chasing. Underneath.

:6: Believe in Royalty 15/1 Another Jones runner with a fast work. Wants to be up front and faces better speed here. Out.

:7: Night Strike 30/1 Broke Maiden in a Stakes race! against OK breds, in a slow time. Out.

:8: Zing Zang 15/1 Improving, and has the connections and the breeding to be a good one. Need more proof at the moment but would not surprise.

:9: Zeke 15/1 Undefeated, but never on a fast track. Can't support.

:10: Instilled Regard 4/1 Lot of eye candy here, big figure, got beat by a good one. Ships after a high pace race and is not showing a work on the track. Could be the best here but can bounce.

:11: Ciaran 30/1 Thomas Morley has been spotting his horses very badly, just look at this one. Out.

:12: Principe Guilherme 5/2 Has not shown any depth to running style and has set soft fractions on the lead. Other speed in here make this guy a very risky one. Another on that would not surprise, but would bet against.

:13: Prince Lucky 8/1 Hard to knock a horse that is 3 for 4. Wide draw and a declining LP figure when stretched from 6 to 7f does not help the cause. Out.

:14: Ebben 20/1 Outside post is very hard to ignore for this one. You have to be tough to over come the draw and I guess hitting the rail in last qualifies. Underneath.

[VigorsTheGrey]

https://racingdudes.com/lecomte-stakes-preview-instilled-regard-ships-in-to-face-full-field/

[Robert Fischer]

Interesting race. Hopefully produces a horse or two for the triple crown series. :ThmbUp:

Pondering keying the 5 or keying 158 at the bottom of tris/supers



:12: Principe Guilherme 5/2 Has not shown any depth to running style and has set soft fractions on the lead. Other speed in here make this guy a very risky one. Another on that would not surprise, but would bet against.

Nailed it. :ThmbUp:


This horse could perhaps eventually be a player in the triple crown series, but the post draw, fractions from the wins, and style questions make this one a risky key. Has two options; Lose ground and run a G1 race to overcome it, or save ground from a deep stalking position. I'm guessing they just run into the teeth of the post bias and think they can overcome the wide trip without messing with this potential monster's style. I do not like that he failed to change leads on debut, and then in his 2nd race switched back to the left-lead in mid-stretch. Those are exactly the type of flaws that can be magnified under adversity such as a wide trip.




:5: Kowboy Karma 6/1 Larry Jones off a break showing a bullet work. Has run well enough to win figure wise but the best winning figure has been sprinting and the best route figure chasing. Underneath.

Should sit a good trip and be moving mid-late. Not a super talent, but if the race becomes a grinding collapse, he'll be in the mix.



:10: Instilled Regard 4/1 Lot of eye candy here, big figure, got beat by a good one. Ships after a high pace race and is not showing a work on the track. Could be the best here but can bounce.
The slow start in the Cash Call surprised me. Is that the plan here? Relax and save ground early? I did like the big aggressive middle move. Castellano is not typically a closing jock. Hopefully not caught in the middle of styles.


:13: Prince Lucky 8/1 Hard to knock a horse that is 3 for 4. Wide draw and a declining LP figure when stretched from 6 to 7f does not help the cause. Out.
This horse looks talented and fit at a decent price. He's a difficult read in terms of class. Will know more, after the fact. Post draw could hurt him. Thinking along with The Cowboy = expect him to try to clear the field wire-to-wire.


:1: Lone Sailor 15/1 One of the more interesting runners here. Gets blinkers for the first time and the trainer is solid with this move. Like his Street Sense race and look for the same running line here. Contender.

:8: Zing Zang 15/1 Improving, and has the connections and the breeding to be a good one. Need more proof at the moment but would not surprise.

If the favorites tire late in a pace-collapse these guys have every right to accompany the :5:

[linrom1]

Principe Guilherme aka Prince William is the ONLY single on this card.

[Afleet]

97 Beyer for a three year old.
Like my feet, haven't seen that in a while!

thats funny:lol:

[Afleet]

Dicky-Do syndrome?

That's when your belly sticks out farther than your Dicky-Do.


thanks for the laugh!

[Afleet]

https://racingdudes.com/lecomte-stakes-preview-instilled-regard-ships-in-to-face-full-field/

throat surgery on Kowboy is interesting

[Afleet]

[QUOTE=Robert Fischer;2259890]Interesting race. Hopefully produces a horse or two for the triple crown series. :ThmbUp:

Pondering keying the 5 or keying 158 at the bottom of tris/supers




Nailed it. :ThmbUp:


This horse could perhaps eventually be a player in the triple crown series, but the post draw, fractions from the wins, and style questions make this one a risky key. Has two options; Lose ground and run a G1 race to overcome it, or save ground from a deep stalking position. I'm guessing they just run into the teeth of the post bias and think they can overcome the wide trip without messing with this potential monster's style. I do not like that he failed to change leads on debut, and then in his 2nd race switched back to the left-lead in mid-stretch. Those are exactly the type of flaws that can be magnified under adversity such as a wide trip.


2 scratches inside of him can only help

[Afleet]

Principe Guilherme aka Prince William is the ONLY single on this card.

no way you can toss him after the two scratches. Not sure his dam side screams distance. Will use him in the super on top w/others and play against in the win and exacta pools

[Robert Fischer]

2 scratches inside of him can only help


Very true, adjust accordingly. Wonder Gadot and who else?

[jay68802]

I'm going to guess Morley scratched his entry.

[Afleet]

Very true, adjust accordingly. Wonder Gadot and who else?

Ciaran

[Robert Fischer]

Ciaran

Thanks

[ubercapper]

The LeComte is the Equibase race of the week and here's my take on it:
http://www.equibase.com/content/analysis/2018/011318preanalysis.cfm

I think the win contention boils down to these (in preference order):


Instilled Regard (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9897331&registry=T&rbt=TB)
Prince Lucky (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9924051&registry=T&rbt=TB)
Believe in Royalty (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9853174&registry=T&rbt=TB)
Zing Zang (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9876833&registry=T&rbt=TB)

[Afleet]

The LeComte is the Equibase race of the week and here's my take on it:
http://www.equibase.com/content/analysis/2018/011318preanalysis.cfm

I think the win contention boils down to these (in preference order):


Instilled Regard (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9897331&registry=T&rbt=TB)
Prince Lucky (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9924051&registry=T&rbt=TB)
Believe in Royalty (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9853174&registry=T&rbt=TB)
Zing Zang (http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9876833&registry=T&rbt=TB)





nice read; can't believe they paid a million dollars for a Arch horse-must be a good looking SOB. I will go w/Zing Zang

[jocko699]

nice read; can't believe they paid a million dollars for a Arch horse-must be a good looking SOB. I will go w/Zing Zang

Instilled has both Raise a Native and Northern Dancer of both sides. This horse has unbelievable numbers:


INSTILLED REGARD http://www.pedigreequery.com/images/ped_i.gif (USA) dkb/br. C, 2015 {20-b} DP = 2-5-13-2-0 (22) DI = 1.59 CD = 0.32

That is why they paid $1,050,000 for him

[Afleet]

Instilled has both Raise a Native and Northern Dancer of both sides. This horse has unbelievable numbers:


INSTILLED REGARD http://www.pedigreequery.com/images/ped_i.gif (USA) dkb/br. C, 2015 {20-b} DP = 2-5-13-2-0 (22) DI = 1.59 CD = 0.32

That is why they paid $1,050,000 for him

Principe 8-5 and Instilled 9-5 tomorrow?-their numbers tower over the others

[letswastemoney]

Instilled Regard's 2nd dam is Heavenly Prize. That has to be part of the reason he's so expensive.

[MONEY]

I do not handicap anymore.
K.I.S.S. is my motto, my mechanical pick is,

#10 Instilled Regard.

Good Luck

[FrankieFigs]

I'm adding to the weight Instilled Regard will be carrying. Like him a lot.

Wouldn't surprise me if Ebben spices up the exotics....

[Red Knave]

I like some combination of these :
5 Kowboy Karma
12 Principe Guilherme
13 Prince Lucky

[Tom]

:10: Instilled Regard
:12: Principe Guilherme
:5: Kowboy Karma

:8: Best LP in a Fast Pace projected race, Steve Asmussen no stranger to 3yo stakes won over this track last out - if I can get 8-1 on him I'll take it.

[Afleet]

5/2 on Instilled Regard would be a steal IMO.

Nice call!

[Afleet]

I'm adding to the weight Instilled Regard will be carrying. Like him a lot.

Wouldn't surprise me if Ebben spices up the exotics....

Nice call, he won fairly easily

[Afleet]

:10: Instilled Regard
:12: Principe Guilherme
:5: Kowboy Karma

:8: Best LP in a Fast Pace projected race, Steve Asmussen no stranger to 3yo stakes won over this track last out - if I can get 8-1 on him I'll take it.

everybody liked this horse except me-thought the ship was going to affect him

[dilanesp]

Instilled Regard was 80 to 1 to win the Kentucky Derby when I visited Vegas in late December.

[Afleet]

This doesn't bode well for the winner, but jinx's end all the time. I still won't bet this horse in the futures even though I like his pedigree

Just one winner of the Lecomte Stakes has gone on to win one of the legs of the Triple Crown: Oxbow, who went on to win the Preakness Stakes and finish second in the Belmont Stakes following his Lecomte Stakes victory in 2013. Another winner, 2007 champ Hard Spun, later finished second in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness Stakes.

Only one horse that contested the Lecomte Stakes went on to win the Kentucky Derby, though he didn’t provide much of a clue to his ability in the Lecomte. War Emblem entered the race having won twice from three starts, but he faded after setting the pace to finish fifth. He didn’t do much better in the Risen Star Stakes, finishing sixth. Perhaps he didn’t like Fair Grounds: he then won an allowance race and the Illinois Derby before taking out the Derby and Preakness.

[dilanesp]

This doesn't bode well for the winner, but jinx's end all the time. I still won't bet this horse in the futures even though I like his pedigree

Just one winner of the Lecomte Stakes has gone on to win one of the legs of the Triple Crown: Oxbow, who went on to win the Preakness Stakes and finish second in the Belmont Stakes following his Lecomte Stakes victory in 2013. Another winner, 2007 champ Hard Spun, later finished second in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness Stakes.

Only one horse that contested the Lecomte Stakes went on to win the Kentucky Derby, though he didn’t provide much of a clue to his ability in the Lecomte. War Emblem entered the race having won twice from three starts, but he faded after setting the pace to finish fifth. He didn’t do much better in the Risen Star Stakes, finishing sixth. Perhaps he didn’t like Fair Grounds: he then won an allowance race and the Illinois Derby before taking out the Derby and Preakness.

These sorts of stats are meaningless.

[jocko699]

This doesn't bode well for the winner, but jinx's end all the time. I still won't bet this horse in the futures even though I like his pedigree

Just one winner of the Lecomte Stakes has gone on to win one of the legs of the Triple Crown: Oxbow, who went on to win the Preakness Stakes and finish second in the Belmont Stakes following his Lecomte Stakes victory in 2013. Another winner, 2007 champ Hard Spun, later finished second in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness Stakes.

Only one horse that contested the Lecomte Stakes went on to win the Kentucky Derby, though he didn’t provide much of a clue to his ability in the Lecomte. War Emblem entered the race having won twice from three starts, but he faded after setting the pace to finish fifth. He didn’t do much better in the Risen Star Stakes, finishing sixth. Perhaps he didn’t like Fair Grounds: he then won an allowance race and the Illinois Derby before taking out the Derby and Preakness.

I believe this horse if healthy will have his best chance in the Belmont. His bloodlines look like he wants to run forever.

[Afleet]

These sorts of stats are meaningless.

I tend to agree, just food for thought. There are different animals running in it every year w/different pedigrees. He may have been the first million dollar horse to run in the race.

[Fager Fan]

These sorts of stats are meaningless.

I agree. It's the horse, not where they prep.