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View Full Version : Solids Picks? Tweak your Wagering...


VigorsTheGrey
01-07-2018, 12:39 AM
As the new year sallies forth, I've found that my Picks are solid and frequently right there...trouble is, I don't know how to wager.

I'm happy with my methodology for selections, but still struggling to get my wagering under control and rational...any suggestions along these lines would be greatly appreciated...thanks.

VigorsTheGrey
01-07-2018, 02:45 AM
In other words, I want to begin my new yer of betting by tweaking how I wager because what I do now is currently not working...My picks come in but my wagering patterns do not make any sense...I play a lot of exotics, but the payouts lately have been quite small...I am probably not alone by any means.

thaskalos
01-07-2018, 03:29 AM
The only way we can possibly offer you any useful advice on exotics wagering is if you go into some detail about your current wagering methods. Telling us that your current wagering patterns "don't make any sense" isn't saying anything concrete.

lamboguy
01-07-2018, 04:37 AM
i wish someone here could post the formula for breakage in exotic wagering. i have the feeling if we knew exactly what those numbers are no one would ever bet an exotic.

Robert Fischer
01-07-2018, 08:17 AM
determine your bankroll
make a low estimate of hit percentage
run these numbers through kelly or similar bet-sizing formula



While each wager is somewhat unique, you should be able to find 'wager types' that represent some of your typical wagers.


Now you have some constraints to work with.


From there, you want to balance things like efficiency vs. hit% (are you going to play only overlays, or do you need to box horses to stay sane between dry spells?), boxcar vs. consistency (want to depend on a rare big score, or do you want to go slow and steady?) etc...

Mulerider
01-07-2018, 08:39 PM
If your picks are solid, you might profit from online tournament play. The wagering decision is made for you.

GMB@BP
01-07-2018, 08:46 PM
If your picks are solid, you might profit from online tournament play. The wagering decision is made for you.

Its been pretty liberating playing in tourneys, I can free roll creative ideas with little economic consequence when I am wrong.

VigorsTheGrey
01-07-2018, 09:03 PM
I tend to see that there are 2 sides to this...the handicapping, and the wagering. If a person doesn't wager correctly, then the handicapping, no matter how good, won't be enough to gain any traction. That said, I have resolved to focus for a time on the wagering aspects...

...And then I stall out, what next...? What are the important questions to ask yourself...?

WPS
Horizontal
Vertical

My bankroll is $300 per race day....What amount of profit should I be aiming for on a consistent basis...?

I guess I need to make a decision to be a grinder or swing for the fences and absorb short terms losses...at $300 a day bankroll, how much loss should I be prepared to absorb/ withstand before it turns around...

Is a bankroll of $300 a daylarge enough to make any headway...?

GMB@BP
01-07-2018, 09:20 PM
I tend to see that there are 2 sides to this...the handicapping, and the wagering. If a person doesn't wager correctly, then the handicapping, no matter how good, won't be enough to gain any traction. That said, I have resolved to focus for a time on the wagering aspects...

...And then I stall out, what next...? What are the important questions to ask yourself...?

WPS
Horizontal
Vertical

My bankroll is $300 per race day....What amount of profit should I be aiming for on a consistent basis...?

I guess I need to make a decision to be a grinder or swing for the fences and absorb short terms losses...at $300 a day bankroll, how much loss should I be prepared to absorb/ withstand before it turns around...

Is a bankroll of $300 a daylarge enough to make any headway...?

I just think people need to look at it differently. If you need to make money, or feel like you need to for the effort than I would shoot for 15% profit after all expenses. So that would be about 20% for me. Thats no easy task with the takeout.

I broke even last year.

I feel like I won big though. Racing provided me I estimated over 2000 hours of entertainment for a net cost of 0 cents, thats pretty dang good. My wife owns, trains, boards horses, she spent about 7k net losses after everything for roughly an equivialnt amount of hours, by my account my business venture kicked her butt.

Not everyone will see it like that.

I have a buddy, he bets very aggressively, losses on a lot of days....then he hits that big day and makes a lot of money, he is still down for sure but he says, lets go party I made a killing....see he only looks at it what happened today, he financially accounted for the money yesterday so its all profits today. If that makes sense.

So set a goal and figure out what works for you, I dont bet 300 per day anymore, more like 100, I am more than happy at the end of the year to be even.

VigorsTheGrey
01-07-2018, 09:39 PM
I just think people need to look at it differently. If you need to make money, or feel like you need to for the effort than I would shoot for 15% profit after all expenses. So that would be about 20% for me. Thats no easy task with the takeout.

I broke even last year.

I feel like I won big though. Racing provided me I estimated over 2000 hours of entertainment for a net cost of 0 cents, thats pretty dang good. My wife owns, trains, boards horses, she spent about 7k net losses after everything for roughly an equivialnt amount of hours, by my account my business venture kicked her butt.

Not everyone will see it like that.

I have a buddy, he bets very aggressively, losses on a lot of days....then he hits that big day and makes a lot of money, he is still down for sure but he says, lets go party I made a killing....see he only looks at it what happened today, he financially accounted for the money yesterday so its all profits today. If that makes sense.

So set a goal and figure out what works for you, I dont bet 300 per day anymore, more like 100, I am more than happy at the end of the year to be even.

So if I bet 48 Saturdays a year, for example, at $100 bankroll per day equals $4800 and profit 15%...I net $720 that year...now subtract $528 for Daily Racing Forms ($11 x 48)...leaves me $192 net profit for the year....Hmm....sure I got a lot of entertainment and satisfaction out of it...but that's it...? That's why I'm doing all this so I can make $200 a year...??? But I see what you mean about looking at it another way....I'm already doing that and losing money on top of it...But I enjoy the game and I suppose someday I'll walk away from it like so many others have, or just not go as much....nobody understands horseplayers...no, not even themselves...

thaskalos
01-07-2018, 10:07 PM
I tend to see that there are 2 sides to this...the handicapping, and the wagering. If a person doesn't wager correctly, then the handicapping, no matter how good, won't be enough to gain any traction. That said, I have resolved to focus for a time on the wagering aspects...

...And then I stall out, what next...? What are the important questions to ask yourself...?

WPS
Horizontal
Vertical

My bankroll is $300 per race day....What amount of profit should I be aiming for on a consistent basis...?

I guess I need to make a decision to be a grinder or swing for the fences and absorb short terms losses...at $300 a day bankroll, how much loss should I be prepared to absorb/ withstand before it turns around...

Is a bankroll of $300 a daylarge enough to make any headway...?

You are tying your own hands when you assign a "daily bankroll", instead of a TOTAL bankroll. Why tell yourself that you have $300 to bet for the day...when you know that all the days are not the same? In my own play, there are days when I bet more than $5,000...and other days when I bet less than $500. How could I function properly if I tell myself beforehand that I have a pre-set bankroll for every day's play?

The main purpose of an adequate bankroll is to stave off "desperation"...so we could be as "unemotional" as possible during the (long?) strings of losses that are sure to occur from time to time. The only way the player can retain his composure and wager the "right way" under pressure is if his TOTAL bankroll is adequate for the task. A $300 daily bankroll tells us nothing about whether or not you are adequately capitalized...unless we know how many $300 daily bankrolls you hold in reserve for your horseplaying venture.

If you are a competent player, and have confidence in your gambling ability, then forget about these "daily bankrolls"..IMO. Raise a total bankroll that you don't need to rely on for your immediate needs...and decide on a proper bet-size in accordance to the size of the bankroll, and the inherent risk of the wagers that you plan to make. If you are unsure about the initial bet-size of your wagers...then err on the side of caution, and make the bet-size even smaller that you think it should be. Underbetting your bankroll in the early stages of your player-development is a lot better than overbetting it.

At the track, every day is different, so...why should all the "daily bankrolls" be the same? Bet more on the days when you find more bets...and less on the days when the good bets are scarce.

VigorsTheGrey
01-07-2018, 10:34 PM
You are tying your own hands when you assign a "daily bankroll", instead of a TOTAL bankroll. Why tell yourself that you have $300 to bet for the day...when you know that all the days are not the same? In my own play, there are days when I bet more than $5,000...and other days when I bet less than $500. How could I function properly if I tell myself beforehand that I have a pre-set bankroll for every day's play?

The main purpose of an adequate bankroll is to stave off "desperation"...so we could be as "unemotional" as possible during the (long?) strings of losses that are sure to occur from time to time. The only way the player can retain his composure and wager the "right way" under pressure is if his TOTAL bankroll is adequate for the task. A $300 daily bankroll tells us nothing about whether or not you are adequately capitalized...unless we know how many $300 daily bankrolls you hold in reserve for your horseplaying venture.

If you are a competent player, and have confidence in your gambling ability, then forget about these "daily bankrolls"..IMO. Raise a total bankroll that you don't need to rely on for your immediate needs...and decide on a proper bet-size in accordance to the size of the bankroll, and the inherent risk of the wagers that you plan to make. If you are unsure about the initial bet-size of your wagers...then err on the side of caution, and make the bet-size even smaller that you think it should be. Underbetting your bankroll in the early stages of your player-development is a lot better than overbetting it. At the track, every day is different, so...why should all the "daily bankrolls" be the same? Bet more on the days when you find more bets...and less on the days when the good bets are scarce.

Thanks Thask, what you say here makes tons of sense, and I now realized that my thinking about a "bankroll" was totally wrong....One thing I do know is that I am NOT adequately capitalized. I have no large BANKROLL at all that I have dedicated for horseplaying purposes...to have a BANKROLL would mean that I tacitly accept that I will not rely upon these funds for other purposes and acknowledge the very real possibility that this BANKROLL will be lost through gambling on horses...this is a truth that I tend not to look at directly (like staring at the Sun) although if you add up my losses for the year it might shock me how much the total loss actually was:eek:

That is probably the reason I don't keep records, the truth can be quite, well, ugly...But I do have some ideas for next year that I would like to share with you....

thaskalos
01-07-2018, 10:51 PM
Thanks Thask, what you say here makes tons of sense, and I now realized that my thinking about a "bankroll" was totally wrong....One thing I do know is that I am NOT adequately capitalized. I have no large BANKROLL at all that I have dedicated for horseplaying purposes... to have a BANKROLL would mean that I tacitly accept that I will not rely upon these funds for other purposes and acknowledge the very real possibility that this BANKROLL will be lost through gambling on horses...this is a truth that I tend not to look at directly (like staring at the Sun) although if you add up my losses for the year it might shock me how much the total loss actually was:eek:

That is probably the reason I don't keep records, the truth can be quite, well, ugly...But I do have some ideas for next year that I would like to share with you....

Your starting bankroll needn't be "large"; the vital thing is that it must really be SEPARATE from any other money that you need for your daily existence. I know more than a few horseplayers who carry THOUSANDS of dollars in their pocket every day...but they play like paupers because they really need this money for other things...in spite of what they publicly say.

This being the era of the $1 exacta...you can play this game the "right way", even with a "small" starting bankroll. It's just that, what you lack in initial funds...you will need to make up in PATIENCE. Don't fall into the trap of harboring large expectations when your bankroll is small. The game isn't going anywhere...and there is really no need to "hurry". Bring your game up to acceptable standards...set up a small starting bankroll...and build it up over time. And the self-confidence that you will gain as a result will be worth even more than the bankroll that you will eventually grow. Take my word for it.

jocko699
01-07-2018, 11:11 PM
I tend to see that there are 2 sides to this...the handicapping, and the wagering. If a person doesn't wager correctly, then the handicapping, no matter how good, won't be enough to gain any traction. That said, I have resolved to focus for a time on the wagering aspects...

...And then I stall out, what next...? What are the important questions to ask yourself...?

WPS
Horizontal
Vertical

My bankroll is $300 per race day....What amount of profit should I be aiming for on a consistent basis...?

I guess I need to make a decision to be a grinder or swing for the fences and absorb short terms losses...at $300 a day bankroll, how much loss should I be prepared to absorb/ withstand before it turns around...

Is a bankroll of $300 a daylarge enough to make any headway...?

VTG,

I have moved toward P3, P4 and P5. I only play the big mutual tracks on both coasts and rarely make straight bets anymore. I have a few friends that play the tri's and supers but I am terrible at it.

I have learned after many years of wagering ineffectively to be patient as Robert states. Play those races you really feel strongly about and only watch the others to gather any purposeful information.

My example is today. I thought the 8th at SA was a lock which would mean a straight bet. I had set out to make a large wager for me, $300 to win, yet thought I might also make a string wager for a higher return. I still made a healthy win bet but I thought the 9th may be a single so instead of playing a $.50 P4 I raised it to a $1 P4 singling the last 2. In this case it won and I got back over $1300.00 on a $20 bet.

My point is that I was patient which I could not do 10 years ago and it paid off today in a nice way. Doesn't always but I am seeing better results sticking to these ideals.

GL

jay68802
01-07-2018, 11:28 PM
At this moment, I have found 2 horses that I want to play at Laurel on Monday. They are in the 7th and 8th races. Right now I know I am going to spend any where from $20.00 to $400.00 on those races. I am going to watch the races before that and try to get a feel for how the track is playing. Track conditions are going to be a part of how I play those races. The horse in the 7th is a horse that from experience, can be used vertically in that race. The horse in the 8th should be played as a win bet or a key in doubles or pick 3's. If speed is dying, the horse in the 8th should be ignored. I have already figured out the other horses in each race that I will also use. It's a large list, scratches and track conditions will help in shortening it. Right now this is all I can do. Another part of this is going to be the Double will pays from the 6th to 7th race. They will give me a idea of what I can expect in the 7th race. So as it sits now, I have a general plan of attack.

In the 7th race, the other horses I am thinking of using are listed by running style and morning line odds. If I am lucky and see a bias, then the horses that will be helped by the bias and have the highest odds become the focus of the bets. If it is a fair track, I have more work to do.

Only half the work is done but the basis is in place.

Select your horse.
Figure out what type of bets your selection fits.
Make a plan now, not a 3 min till post.
Narrow your bets down by track conditions, running style, then by odds.
Pray you can spot a bias track

VigorsTheGrey
01-07-2018, 11:31 PM
VTG,

I have moved toward P3, P4 and P5. I only play the big mutual tracks on both coasts and rarely make straight bets anymore. I have a few friends that play the tri's and supers but I am terrible at it.

I have learned after many years of wagering ineffectively to be patient as Robert states. Play those races you really feel strongly about and only watch the others to gather any purposeful information.

My example is today. I thought the 8th at SA was a lock which would mean a straight bet. I had set out to make a large wager for me, $300 to win, yet thought I might also make a string wager for a higher return. I still made a healthy win bet but I thought the 9th may be a single so instead of playing a $.50 P4 I raised it to a $1 P4 singling the last 2. In this case it won and I got back over $1300.00 on a $20 bet.

My point is that I was patient which I could not do 10 years ago and it paid off today in a nice way. Doesn't always but I am seeing better results sticking to these ideals.

GL

I agree with you here...one advantage of being a horizontal player is that you begin to get a feel for which races can be singled or dutched and which races are chaos races...which provides the necessary leverage (spread) in which to hope for a longer price winner to boost the payoff...because the short priced combinations are not worth the investment versus the risk...and patience is the key.

But I think that a player that does not have ADW account and much more choice over which races he can play is at a most intolerable disadvantage...I would suspect that nowadays, any player that is limited by the races his local track/ simulcast venue provides is mostly in the boneyard as far as profits are concerned...

jay68802
01-07-2018, 11:38 PM
VTG,

I have moved toward P3, P4 and P5. I only play the big mutual tracks on both coasts and rarely make straight bets anymore. I have a few friends that play the tri's and supers but I am terrible at it.

I have learned after many years of wagering ineffectively to be patient as Robert states. Play those races you really feel strongly about and only watch the others to gather any purposeful information.

My example is today. I thought the 8th at SA was a lock which would mean a straight bet. I had set out to make a large wager for me, $300 to win, yet thought I might also make a string wager for a higher return. I still made a healthy win bet but I thought the 9th may be a single so instead of playing a $.50 P4 I raised it to a $1 P4 singling the last 2. In this case it won and I got back over $1300.00 on a $20 bet.

My point is that I was patient which I could not do 10 years ago and it paid off today in a nice way. Doesn't always but I am seeing better results sticking to these ideals.

GL

Another point here is look at the Santa Ynez thread. Jocko states he "loves" this horse. I state I "sort of like" a horse. Guess who made money? If you feel confident, bet like it.

VigorsTheGrey
01-08-2018, 12:19 PM
At this moment, I have found 2 horses that I want to play at Laurel on Monday. They are in the 7th and 8th races. Right now I know I am going to spend any where from $20.00 to $400.00 on those races. I am going to watch the races before that and try to get a feel for how the track is playing. Track conditions are going to be a part of how I play those races. The horse in the 7th is a horse that from experience, can be used vertically in that race. The horse in the 8th should be played as a win bet or a key in doubles or pick 3's. If speed is dying, the horse in the 8th should be ignored. I have already figured out the other horses in each race that I will also use. It's a large list, scratches and track conditions will help in shortening it. Right now this is all I can do. Another part of this is going to be the Double will pays from the 6th to 7th race. They will give me a idea of what I can expect in the 7th race. So as it sits now, I have a general plan of attack.

In the 7th race, the other horses I am thinking of using are listed by running style and morning line odds. If I am lucky and see a bias, then the horses that will be helped by the bias and have the highest odds become the focus of the bets. If it is a fair track, I have more work to do.

Only half the work is done but the basis is in place.

Select your horse.
Figure out what type of bets your selection fits.
Make a plan now, not a 3 min till post.
Narrow your bets down by track conditions, running style, then by odds.
Pray you can spot a bias track

Excellent write-up. Really like the idea of having a basis in place while waiting necessarily for other relevant info to arise, like possible bias, etc. Yes, I really do need to have that basis in place...formerly, it was all a mad dash to the windows, a wagering hack, and handicapping confusion at its finest...I have vowed to change....thanks.

oughtoh
01-08-2018, 12:56 PM
Thanks for the topic and all of the responses. Sometimes you get away from what you know and this puts things back into prospective, at least for me.

jay68802
01-08-2018, 01:27 PM
And so the game goes, the horse I liked in the 7th today is scratched. Leaving me with 1 selection in the 8th. A need the lead type, coming off a injury. But is the only graded stakes winner in the field. And at 15-1 ML is worth a small risk.
$10.00 Win on 1, play a double with 6,8,9,10,13 to the 1 and a Pick 3, the same as the double with the 2, 10 in the 9th. Total $30.00 and if the track shows that early speed if favored I will double the win bet.

VigorsTheGrey
01-08-2018, 01:50 PM
Your starting bankroll needn't be "large"; the vital thing is that it must really be SEPARATE from any other money that you need for your daily existence. I know more than a few horseplayers who carry THOUSANDS of dollars in their pocket every day...but they play like paupers because they really need this money for other things...in spite of what they publicly say.

This being the era of the $1 exacta...you can play this game the "right way", even with a "small" starting bankroll. It's just that, what you lack in initial funds...you will need to make up in PATIENCE. Don't fall into the trap of harboring large expectations when your bankroll is small. The game isn't going anywhere...and there is really no need to "hurry". Bring your game up to acceptable standards...set up a small starting bankroll...and build it up over time. And the self-confidence that you will gain as a result will be worth even more than the bankroll that you will eventually grow. Take my word for it.

So, for example, I know that during the entire year I will wager at least $5000 at the very minimum (basically $100 a day for 50 consecutive Saturdays)...Now formerly I didn't have a BANKROLL but just used some discretionary spending monies leftover after I first paid all my bills for the months....

I guess if I sequester $5000 into a separate account I could tell very easily where I am dollar wise at any given moment of the year, and could then easily calculate my ROI for the year based on my initially BANKROLL...

...I have often wondered how ROI was calculated because often I was partially betting with winnings all the time in win/ loss churn cycles...and make draws only when my daily winning dwindled to zero...and I never have kept a record of how much I was actually "investing", ie, losing.

There is always talk about ROI, and how anything above 1.00 is good because of the onerous TAKE and BREAKAGE of anywhere between 15% to 25%...

But there is seldom any talk of the ABSOLUTE DOLLARS that these ROI figures are representing...

It almost seems like there is a certain pride of having a real high ROI, say between 1.25 and 1.50...as the measure of horseplayers' ability compared with others, but WITHOUT really indicating actual dollar amounts won or lost for the year...

It's only "I had a positive year with an ROI of 1.33"...etc, etc.

ROI = 1.15
Profit Margin

$1,000 = $150
$5,000 = $750
$10,000= $1,500
$20,000= $3000
$50,000= $7,500
$100,000= $15,000
$1,000,000= $150,000

So I guess I should consider myself a good player, if after a year of play, I wind up with a net profit of $1,500 while acknowledging that I most likely will need to push $10,000 thru the windows to arrive at that kind of net profit based on an ROI of 1.15.

Sharks and Whales that maintain an ROI of 1.15 are likely swimming in money as they can push upwards of $1,000,000 thru the windows and make $150,000 for each $1 Million BANKROLL.

AndyC
01-08-2018, 03:24 PM
....I guess if I sequester $5000 into a separate account I could tell very easily where I am dollar wise at any given moment of the year, and could then easily calculate my ROI for the year based on my initially BANKROLL...

...I have often wondered how ROI was calculated because often I was partially betting with winnings all the time in win/ loss churn cycles...and make draws only when my daily winning dwindled to zero...and I never have kept a record of how much I was actually "investing", ie, losing.

If you truly want to up your game you shouldn't be guessing about anything with regard to your betting. Most poor players don't keep records because they are either too lazy or don't want to know the truth about their betting. Records should show how much you won or lost, your ROI, your success or failure with various types of bets by track, and your proficiency with types of races by class, age, distance and surface. And I would also keep track of your feelings before betting each race. How many times were you right or wrong when you felt that there was a lone speed horse in a race? How strongly did you feel about your selection? Use a scale of 1-10. If your feel ratings match up with good results (high ROI) then you know you are on the right path. You may find that you are real good at maiden claiming route races and poor at turf stake races.

So I guess I should consider myself a good player, if after a year of play, I wind up with a net profit of $1,500 while acknowledging that I most likely will need to push $10,000 thru the windows to arrive at that kind of net profit based on an ROI of 1.15.

Sharks and Whales that maintain an ROI of 1.15 are likely swimming in money as they can push upwards of $1,000,000 thru the windows and make $150,000 for each $1 Million BANKROLL.

Betting recreational money where winning or losing really has no consequences is nothing like betting for your livelihood. The pressure of making large wagers over an extended period of time should not be understated. The level of play, however, should not diminish any satisfaction derived from ending up on the plus side of a very difficult game.

jay68802
01-08-2018, 03:48 PM
If you truly want to up your game you shouldn't be guessing about anything with regard to your betting. Most poor players don't keep records because they are either too lazy or don't want to know the truth about their betting. Records should show how much you won or lost, your ROI, your success or failure with various types of bets by track, and your proficiency with types of races by class, age, distance and surface. And I would also keep track of your feelings before betting each race. How many times were you right or wrong when you felt that there was a lone speed horse in a race? How strongly did you feel about your selection? Use a scale of 1-10. If your feel ratings match up with good results (high ROI) then you know you are on the right path. You may find that you are real good at maiden claiming route races and poor at turf stake races.



Betting recreational money where winning or losing really has no consequences is nothing like betting for your livelihood. The pressure of making large wagers over an extended period of time should not be understated. The level of play, however, should not diminish any satisfaction derived from ending up on the plus side of a very difficult game.

Some very true points here. On the day I made my largest hit in this game, a fellow handicapper told me afterwards that he knew that i was going to hit big that day.(He also profited) His words were "you were so confident when you got here, I bet your horse without looking at the race".

And yes, I have records of my bets last year. Today I "like" a horse. On a scale of 1-10, I'm at a 5. The way the laurel track is today (fair, but need to be close to the front), I am sticking to what I stated earlier on how I am betting. That is until I know the odds.

VigorsTheGrey
01-08-2018, 03:48 PM
If you truly want to up your game you shouldn't be guessing about anything with regard to your betting. Most poor players don't keep records because they are either too lazy or don't want to know the truth about their betting. Records should show how much you won or lost, your ROI, your success or failure with various types of bets by track, and your proficiency with types of races by class, age, distance and surface. And I would also keep track of your feelings before betting each race. How many times were you right or wrong when you felt that there was a lone speed horse in a race? How strongly did you feel about your selection? Use a scale of 1-10. If your feel ratings match up with good results (high ROI) then you know you are on the right path. You may find that you are real good at maiden claiming route races and poor at turf stake races.



Betting recreational money where winning or losing really has no consequences is nothing like betting for your livelihood. The pressure of making large wagers over an extended period of time should not be understated. The level of play, however, should not diminish any satisfaction derived from ending up on the plus side of a very difficult game.

Andy, do you think my fundamental premise (see below) is correct that the profit amount for each level of Yearly $ Play is at least satisfactory and more or less what winning players in the real world are actually bringing home year-end-wise on average...?

ROI = 1.15
Profit Margin

$1,000 = $150
$5,000 = $750
$10,000= $1,500
$20,000= $3000
$50,000= $7,500
$100,000= $15,000
$1,000,000= $150,000

AndyC
01-08-2018, 04:02 PM
Andy, do you think my fundamental premise (see below) is correct that the profit amount for each level of Yearly $ Play is at least satisfactory and more or less what players in the real world are actually bringing home year-end-wise on average...?

ROI = 1.15
Profit Margin

$1,000 = $150
$5,000 = $750
$10,000= $1,500
$20,000= $3000
$50,000= $7,500
$100,000= $15,000
$1,000,000= $150,000

I have no way of knowing what players bring home on average. I am also not sure what relevance that information provides even if known.

oughtoh
01-08-2018, 04:07 PM
There is no way of knowing what you will win without keeping track year after year. Everyone is different. Some need money to live on or travel and some build their bankroll up.

VigorsTheGrey
01-08-2018, 04:22 PM
I have no way of knowing what players bring home on average. I am also not sure what relevance that information provides even if known.

I understand, but it is such a fundamental question...somebody here with lots of experience simply MUST know...

Stated another way...

How ______(much) can I expect to push through the windows on a yearly basis in order to expect a _______ Amount of Profit if I have a ROI rate of _______...?

Like I say, I guess I should feel pretty satisfied with myself and my competence as a horseplayer if at years' end I can net a $1500 profit, having pushed $10,000 thru the window in order to do it...

meanwhile, I would have made the track somewhere between $1500 and $2500 based on TAKEOUT alone...So the track is in a WIN/ WIN position: They empty the pockets of the losing players while turning the winning players into their "employee/ partners" who make it all possible...this is the real reason why the tracks cater to sharks and whales giving them perks and rebates....the sharks and whales make the "system" operational for the tracks...

jay68802
01-08-2018, 04:25 PM
The Double probable's to the 1 in the next race are at 18-1. This is about where they should be. No strange wagering or payouts. If the odds were at 25-1 or higher I would cancel the bet. Am adding the 11 in this race to the double and pick 3.

Now it is up to the horses.

JohnGalt1
01-08-2018, 04:29 PM
After I have done my handicapping I decide how each race and bet should be placed.

I believe not every race should be played the same way.

1) I pass a race if every or most horses are equally likely to win or not win, or I like a horse under 5-2.

2 WIN BETS --If I like one horse I usually bet 1 unit/2 units win/place. If I like a horse for an exacta I box with my win bet, or 2 with my win bet.

OR if I like two horses to win, bet each 50/50 or if I like one more, 60%-40%, maybe add another in an exacta.

3) I seldom play trifectas, but when I do, I structure them as needed---A/BCD/all, or AB/ABCD/ABCDEF, or any other combination.

4)Same with supers.

5)Pick 3's, 4', etc. I use as many horse as needed in each leg.

IMPORTANT--if the ticket is too expensive, I don't play. I've learned cutting horses out of a ticket usually leaves me with 3 of 4 too many times to count.

I never bet every race the same. If you always bet win and a 3 horse exacta box every race, or 3/3/3 every time you play pick 3's when the pick 3 for that sequence should be 1/5/3 if that's what your handicapping reveals.

What helps me determine the way to play a race is from a quarter horse pamphlet I picked up years ago.

The author assigns his top horse(s) an A, next get B's, then C's.

My win bets are A's, exacta horses are B's, etc.

If no horse stands out, no letters given and pass the race.

If I land on an even money horse, I give it a B, which means not to bet to win, but may single in a pick 4 or 5.

In summary, let the race dictate the bets you make. Or don't make.

jay68802
01-08-2018, 04:57 PM
Win Bet canceled because of odds.

AndyC
01-08-2018, 05:08 PM
I understand, but it is such a fundamental question...somebody here with lots of experience simply MUST know...

Stated another way...

How ______(much) can I expect to push through the windows on a yearly basis in order to expect a _______ Amount of Profit if I have a ROI rate of _______...?

Like I say, I guess I should feel pretty satisfied with myself and my competence as a horseplayer if at years' end I can net a $1500 profit, having pushed $10,000 thru the window in order to do it...

meanwhile, I would have made the track somewhere between $1500 and $2500 based on TAKEOUT alone...So the track is in a WIN/ WIN position: They empty the pockets of the losing players while turning the winning players into their "employee/ partners" who make it all possible...this is the real reason why the tracks cater to sharks and whales giving them perks and rebates....the sharks and whales make the "system" operational for the tracks...

Why is it a fundamental question? How could one possibly know the answer to your question? They would need every players personal betting records. The only thing I know for sure is that all players combined lose the track take.

What result creates satisfaction in a player varies from player to player. I don't think you should be looking for a satisfaction meter to try and gauge where you stand. Enjoy the ride wherever it takes you.

VigorsTheGrey
01-08-2018, 05:24 PM
Why is it a fundamental question? How could one possibly know the answer to your question? They would need every players personal betting records. The only thing I know for sure is that all players combined lose the track take.

What result creates satisfaction in a player varies from player to player. I don't think you should be looking for a satisfaction meter to try and gauge where you stand. Enjoy the ride wherever it takes you.

Fair enough, and I do enjoy the ride but still I would like to gauge what is reasonable to expect in profits given a certain level of investment, and I would like to know this from winning players, who from many years of experience, may know ROUGHLY, how much money they are pushing through the windows yearly to obtain "X Level of Profit"...

...So I am aware that it is impossible to know the privately held finances of bettors without their consent and it is really none of my business...however, I thought that some might be aware of these parameters without, albeit, person disclosure..

....I could ask you, for example, when you did have a winning year, how much did you win versus how much it cost to get that...and you would be under no obligation to tell me...but maybe you might know what others did or what is relatively common, rule of thumb stuff, etc..

jocko699
01-08-2018, 05:27 PM
Win Bet canceled because of odds.

Hammered to 4-1. Looked like he definitely needed a race IMO.

jay68802
01-08-2018, 06:17 PM
Hammered to 4-1. Looked like he definitely needed a race IMO.

And in the end, 2 selections, no win bets, and a loss of $18.00. The odds saved me $10.00. Do not be afraid to cancel a bet because you are not getting the odds you require, in the long run it will be profitable. The money lost was well positioned, getting a minimum of 16-1 in the double and, from experience, about 40-1 in the pick 3, if the 1 would have won. Time to do it again.GL

thaskalos
01-08-2018, 07:05 PM
Andy, do you think my fundamental premise (see below) is correct that the profit amount for each level of Yearly $ Play is at least satisfactory and more or less what winning players in the real world are actually bringing home year-end-wise on average...?

ROI = 1.15
Profit Margin

$1,000 = $150
$5,000 = $750
$10,000= $1,500
$20,000= $3000
$50,000= $7,500
$100,000= $15,000
$1,000,000= $150,000

No...a 15% unrebated ROI cannot be considered sustainable by the "regular" player...IMO. Yes, if you go by the ROI-claims made by some of the posters of this board...then a 15% return seems "modest" by comparison. But the truth is that a 15% ROI can make a horseplayer RICH, in pretty short order...and I have YET to meet a rich horseplayer in all my years of playing this game.

Are there "geniuses" in this game, as there are in other intellectual pursuits...who can attain the level of financial success that the rest of us can only marvel at? Have people really made MILLIONS after humble beginnings in this game? Maybe...but it's certain that this won't happen to "mere mortals" like you and me.

It's easy to fool yourself that you are "brilliant" when you play this game only occasionally. But every-day play is a very humbling experience...and the overall ROI isn't as appetizing as we would like it to be.

Poindexter
01-08-2018, 07:10 PM
Vigors you have brought up a 15% roi quite a bit as if it is something a horseplayer should be able to do and basically affording you the ability to pay for Racings forms. So I want you to think about something. A player starts off with a $1000 bankroll, is able to come up with say 33.3 plays per week (with as many tracks as we have running that isn't that much). By betting 3% per play of his $1000 bankroll week 1, he should bet his entire bankroll every week. So after week 1 his bankroll goes from $1000 to $1150 typically. He then resizes this and every other week. Where do you think he goes if he is able to continue betting without knocking his odds down(a big if but this is just for illustration purposes). How about 1.43 million bucks.
So when you talk about 15% roi as if it is nothing, you might want to consider that 15% roi long run is basically the ability to print money when accompanied with any sort of volume. Every financial planner talks about the magic of compounding interest shooting for what 8% per year long run. A high volume horse player can easily bet his bankroll every week or two so over the course of a year he is betting 25 to 50 time his bankroll. So even at 5% roi he is going to make 125% to 250% of his bankroll. It is reaching that 5% roi that is the tough part(or even being profitable isn't exactly easy).

So next time you are disappointed with a 15% roi over any time period think
about what it can do for you if you can actually make that a long term roi.


Here is the 52 week by week breakdown with a 15% expected roi(obviously variance means that some weeks you might make 30 or 35% roi and others you might actually lose money, but over time this is what it should look like with a 15% roi and the ability to bet without chopping down your odds.


1000 to start
1150
1322.5
1520.875
1749.00625
2011.357188
2313.060766
2660.01988
3059.022863
3517.876292
4045.557736
4652.391396
5350.250105
6152.787621
7075.705764
8137.061629
9357.620874
10761.264
12375.45361
14231.77165
16366.53739
18821.518
21644.7457
24891.45756
28625.17619
32918.95262
37856.79551
43535.31484
50065.61207
57575.45388
66211.77196
76143.53775
87565.06841
100699.8287
115804.803
133175.5234
153151.8519
176124.6297
202543.3242
232924.8228
267863.5462
308043.0782
354249.5399
407386.9709
468495.0165
538769.269
619584.6593
712522.3582
819400.712
942310.8188
1083657.442
1246206.058
1433136.966

VigorsTheGrey
01-08-2018, 07:47 PM
Vigors you have brought up a 15% roi quite a bit as if it is something a horseplayer should be able to do and basically affording you the ability to pay for Racings forms. So I want you to think about something. A player starts off with a $1000 bankroll, is able to come up with say 33.3 plays per week (with as many tracks as we have running that isn't that much). By betting 3% per play of his $1000 bankroll week 1, he should bet his entire bankroll every week. So after week 1 his bankroll goes from $1000 to $1150 typically. He then resizes this and every other week. Where do you think he goes if he is able to continue betting without knocking his odds down(a big if but this is just for illustration purposes). How about 1.43 million bucks.
So when you talk about 15% roi as if it is nothing, you might want to consider that 15% roi long run is basically the ability to print money when accompanied with any sort of volume. Every financial planner talks about the magic of compounding interest shooting for what 8% per year long run. A high volume horse player can easily bet his bankroll every week or two so over the course of a year he is betting 25 to 50 time his bankroll. So even at 5% roi he is going to make 125% to 250% of his bankroll. It is reaching that 5% roi that is the tough part(or even being profitable isn't exactly easy).

So next time you are disappointed with a 15% roi over any time period think
about what it can do for you if you can actually make that a long term roi.


Here is the 52 week by week breakdown with a 15% expected roi(obviously variance means that some weeks you might make 30 or 35% roi and others you might actually lose money, but over time this is what it should look like with a 15% roi and the ability to bet without chopping down your odds.


1000 to start
1150
1322.5
1520.875
1749.00625
2011.357188
2313.060766
2660.01988
3059.022863
3517.876292
4045.557736
4652.391396
5350.250105
6152.787621
7075.705764
8137.061629
9357.620874
10761.264
12375.45361
14231.77165
16366.53739
18821.518
21644.7457
24891.45756
28625.17619
32918.95262
37856.79551
43535.31484
50065.61207
57575.45388
66211.77196
76143.53775
87565.06841
100699.8287
115804.803
133175.5234
153151.8519
176124.6297
202543.3242
232924.8228
267863.5462
308043.0782
354249.5399
407386.9709
468495.0165
538769.269
619584.6593
712522.3582
819400.712
942310.8188
1083657.442
1246206.058
1433136.966

:eek::eek:WOW...!:eek::eek::cool::cool::cool:
Thank you so much for this post...this may very well change my game for the positive now that I understand the power of a compounding BANKROLL...Thanks again...!

GMB@BP
01-08-2018, 08:08 PM
Vigors you have brought up a 15% roi quite a bit as if it is something a horseplayer should be able to do and basically affording you the ability to pay for Racings forms. So I want you to think about something. A player starts off with a $1000 bankroll, is able to come up with say 33.3 plays per week (with as many tracks as we have running that isn't that much). By betting 3% per play of his $1000 bankroll week 1, he should bet his entire bankroll every week. So after week 1 his bankroll goes from $1000 to $1150 typically. He then resizes this and every other week. Where do you think he goes if he is able to continue betting without knocking his odds down(a big if but this is just for illustration purposes). How about 1.43 million bucks.
So when you talk about 15% roi as if it is nothing, you might want to consider that 15% roi long run is basically the ability to print money when accompanied with any sort of volume. Every financial planner talks about the magic of compounding interest shooting for what 8% per year long run. A high volume horse player can easily bet his bankroll every week or two so over the course of a year he is betting 25 to 50 time his bankroll. So even at 5% roi he is going to make 125% to 250% of his bankroll. It is reaching that 5% roi that is the tough part(or even being profitable isn't exactly easy).

So next time you are disappointed with a 15% roi over any time period think
about what it can do for you if you can actually make that a long term roi.


Here is the 52 week by week breakdown with a 15% expected roi(obviously variance means that some weeks you might make 30 or 35% roi and others you might actually lose money, but over time this is what it should look like with a 15% roi and the ability to bet without chopping down your odds.


1000 to start
1150
1322.5
1520.875
1749.00625
2011.357188
2313.060766
2660.01988
3059.022863
3517.876292
4045.557736
4652.391396
5350.250105
6152.787621
7075.705764
8137.061629
9357.620874
10761.264
12375.45361
14231.77165
16366.53739
18821.518
21644.7457
24891.45756
28625.17619
32918.95262
37856.79551
43535.31484
50065.61207
57575.45388
66211.77196
76143.53775
87565.06841
100699.8287
115804.803
133175.5234
153151.8519
176124.6297
202543.3242
232924.8228
267863.5462
308043.0782
354249.5399
407386.9709
468495.0165
538769.269
619584.6593
712522.3582
819400.712
942310.8188
1083657.442
1246206.058
1433136.966

15% ROI on top of a 20% average take, given computerized betting and likely small pools you would be severely compromising with your 33 plays this would be near impossible.

VigorsTheGrey
01-08-2018, 09:23 PM
15% ROI on top of a 20% average take, given computerized betting and likely small pools you would be severely compromising with your 33 plays this would be near impossible.
A valid point, still the approach is compelling. We would need to chart 3% bets thru the 52 weeks of compounding bankroll to see where the diminishing returns kick-in, then perhaps go steady state from there or revert back...this method might explain some lop-sided odds effects that might work in the interests of the non-method entries...

VigorsTheGrey
01-08-2018, 09:52 PM
OK, on Saturday I'll begin the new approach with a $300 bankroll...33 $9 bets. More later.

VigorsTheGrey
01-08-2018, 11:48 PM
Starting this FRIDAY
OP-12Jan18R1-9
GP-12Jan18R46810
FG-12Jan18R468

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=ONSC-OP-20180112D
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=ONSC-GP-20180112D
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=ONSC-FG-20180112D

Your input is appreciated.

AltonKelsey
01-09-2018, 01:36 AM
I wonder how many horseplayers have turned 1000 in to 1,000,000 in a year in the last, say, 100 years.

cato
01-09-2018, 01:53 AM
Only those who hit the lottery!

jocko699
01-09-2018, 01:59 AM
I wonder how many horseplayers have turned 1000 in to 1,000,000 in a year in the last, say, 100 years.

Well I haven't if that helps your survey :pound::pound::pound:

VigorsTheGrey
01-09-2018, 02:55 AM
And yet if one starts with $300 and has 33 $9 bets to make, what type of wagers do you think would be the surest and safest way to make a $45 profit....I'll take a stab here: SHOW wagers. And this is why rebates are so important and the breakage also...

VigorsTheGrey
01-09-2018, 11:34 AM
After I have done my handicapping I decide how each race and bet should be placed.

I believe not every race should be played the same way.

1) I pass a race if every or most horses are equally likely to win or not win, or I like a horse under 5-2.

2 WIN BETS --If I like one horse I usually bet 1 unit/2 units win/place. If I like a horse for an exacta I box with my win bet, or 2 with my win bet.

OR if I like two horses to win, bet each 50/50 or if I like one more, 60%-40%, maybe add another in an exacta.

3) I seldom play trifectas, but when I do, I structure them as needed---A/BCD/all, or AB/ABCD/ABCDEF, or any other combination.

4)Same with supers.

5)Pick 3's, 4', etc. I use as many horse as needed in each leg.

IMPORTANT--if the ticket is too expensive, I don't play. I've learned cutting horses out of a ticket usually leaves me with 3 of 4 too many times to count.

I never bet every race the same. If you always bet win and a 3 horse exacta box every race, or 3/3/3 every time you play pick 3's when the pick 3 for that sequence should be 1/5/3 if that's what your handicapping reveals.

What helps me determine the way to play a race is from a quarter horse pamphlet I picked up years ago.

The author assigns his top horse(s) an A, next get B's, then C's.

My win bets are A's, exacta horses are B's, etc.

If no horse stands out, no letters given and pass the race.

If I land on an even money horse, I give it a B, which means not to bet to win, but may single in a pick 4 or 5.

In summary, let the race dictate the bets you make. Or don't make.
Thanks John for your write-up here...really good info...thank you for sharing..

Aner
01-09-2018, 11:43 AM
I primarily bet trifectas and supers. Unless one of the two top picks is 10:1 or more, I lose big time. This year I resolve to limit my bets to having a long one in the win or place hole, and hope I don't force in long shots that really don't figure.

castaway01
01-09-2018, 03:27 PM
I wonder how many horseplayers have turned 1000 in to 1,000,000 in a year in the last, say, 100 years.

A lot fewer than did the reverse.

Robert Fischer
01-09-2018, 05:04 PM
I primarily bet trifectas and supers. Unless one of the two top picks is 10:1 or more, I lose big time. This year I resolve to limit my bets to having a long one in the win or place hole, and hope I don't force in long shots that really don't figure.

That makes sense.

The only time I've felt I had value in a Tri or Super was


a price in the win or place hole
or, a rare long shot closer that I singled exactly 3rd or 4th
or, a rare triple crown or stakes type of race where I felt I knew the horses well enough to almost bet it straight


It's a tough bet, and it's tough to cover 3 or 4 slots (usually tougher than a pick-3 or pick-4 due to the increased randomness dealing with non-win-contenders underneath).

VigorsTheGrey
01-09-2018, 05:16 PM
That makes sense.

The only time I've felt I had value in a Tri or Super was


a price in the win or place hole
or, a rare long shot closer that I singled exactly 3rd or 4th
or, a rare triple crown or stakes type of race where I felt I knew the horses well enough to almost bet it straight


It's a tough bet, and it's tough to cover 3 or 4 slots (usually tougher than a pick-3 or pick-4 due to the increased randomness dealing with non-win-contenders underneath).

I tend to use longer priced horses in the tri as well...Robert, do you have an expertise in the topic "Negative Correlation" with regard to T-Bred racing, can you provide some examples of how negative correlation may work out on the track..?

Robert Fischer
01-09-2018, 06:16 PM
I tend to use longer priced horses in the tri as well...Robert, do you have an expertise in the topic "Negative Correlation" with regard to T-Bred racing, can you provide some examples of how negative correlation may work out on the track..?

Not an expert, so I open this up for anyone to chime in.

Racing related examples that I can think of:

Odds themselves, particularly the favorite vs. the field correlate negatively. A 'bad' chalk can add value/price to other contenders
A bias or pace scenario can be a negative correlation; speed favoring hurts closers, inside bias hurts outside, etc...

Enigma
01-09-2018, 06:19 PM
I have a simple approach that makes me a winning player.
The target is $40,00 per year, $110,00 daily. Starting bankroll $6,000,
I wager $50.00 win $100.00 place. Using the daily Eqibase featured tracks. When I hit $110,00 I quit for the day. In this game discipline is a must.
The format for my selections, ML/odds, Win %, Average earnings, Days Off.
Please excuse the Red-Boarding, Today1/9/2018.
Parx 1st. # 8 Viserion $5.40 $3.00. Profit $135.00

Enigma
01-09-2018, 06:27 PM
Sorry for the typo it should read $40,000

VigorsTheGrey
01-09-2018, 07:16 PM
I have a simple approach that makes me a winning player.
The target is $40,00 per year, $110,00 daily. Starting bankroll $6,000,
I wager $50.00 win $100.00 place. Using the daily Eqibase featured tracks. When I hit $110,00 I quit for the day. In this game discipline is a must.
The format for my selections, ML/odds, Win %, Average earnings, Days Off.
Please excuse the Red-Boarding, Today1/9/2018.
Parx 1st. # 8 Viserion $5.40 $3.00. Profit $135.00

1. So you are saying that $40,000 is your target net profit for the year.
2. That your starting bankroll is $6000
3. That you wager $50 Win/ $100 Place, on 1 Selection per race, until you are above your $6000 by $110.

4. When you are $110 ahead of your updated daily bankroll, you quit for the day.
5. You start with the same bankroll of $6000 each day, and bank the profit from the previous session.

Did I get it right...?

With regard to the format for selections:
A. You bet the M/L favorite?
B. You bet the horse with the highest win percentage?
C. You bet the horse with the fewest days off?

Dave Schwartz
01-09-2018, 08:27 PM
As the new year sallies forth, I've found that my Picks are solid and frequently right there...trouble is, I don't know how to wager.

I'm happy with my methodology for selections, but still struggling to get my wagering under control and rational...any suggestions along these lines would be greatly appreciated...thanks.

For me, it is all about the sizing of the wagers.

I advocate (and use) a 3-step process.

1. Pick the contenders.
2. Handicap the race to find value in the horses, penalizing the non-contenders.
3. Weight the race itself for value.

Saying it differently:
1. Pick Contenders
2. Measure who the best bets are.
3. Measure whether the race has value.
(based upon the pct of pool you are NOT wagering x the pct of pool that are NOT contenders.)


Dave

AltonKelsey
01-09-2018, 09:16 PM
I have a simple approach that makes me a winning player.
The target is $40,00 per year, $110,00 daily. Starting bankroll $6,000,
I wager $50.00 win $100.00 place. Using the daily Eqibase featured tracks. When I hit $110,00 I quit for the day. In this game discipline is a must.
The format for my selections, ML/odds, Win %, Average earnings, Days Off.
Please excuse the Red-Boarding, Today1/9/2018.
Parx 1st. # 8 Viserion $5.40 $3.00. Profit $135.00


I didn't know quitting for the day was a form of discipline . I'll have to rethink it.

thaskalos
01-09-2018, 09:26 PM
I have a simple approach that makes me a winning player.
The target is $40,00 per year, $110,00 daily. Starting bankroll $6,000,
I wager $50.00 win $100.00 place. Using the daily Eqibase featured tracks. When I hit $110,00 I quit for the day. In this game discipline is a must.
The format for my selections, ML/odds, Win %, Average earnings, Days Off.
Please excuse the Red-Boarding, Today1/9/2018.
Parx 1st. # 8 Viserion $5.40 $3.00. Profit $135.00

What happens if you LOSE $500 on a particular day? Do you have to win $720 before you quit on the next day?

jay68802
01-09-2018, 10:33 PM
For me, it is all about the sizing of the wagers.

I advocate (and use) a 3-step process.

1. Pick the contenders.
2. Handicap the race to find value in the horses, penalizing the non-contenders.
3. Weight the race itself for value.

Saying it differently:
1. Pick Contenders
2. Measure who the best bets are.
3. Measure whether the race has value.
(based upon the pct of pool you are NOT wagering x the pct of pool that are NOT contenders.)


Dave

I find this very interesting. It is easy to do quickly. If you are only playing 1 horse in the race, is there a minimum % that tells you to play or not to play?

VigorsTheGrey
01-09-2018, 10:58 PM
What happens if you LOSE $500 on a particular day? Do you have to win $720 before you quit on the next day?

If I am reading Enigma right, he would keep betting down his bankroll with $50w/$100p bets until he reversed directions, surpasses his initial $6000 bankroll mark, then keep betting until he showed $110 above that, then quit (for the day)....

Now $110 * 365(Days) = $40,150, so that's real close to his $40,000 per year net profit goal...

And I'm happy to have this conversation because it begins to shine some light on what really are reasonable expectations for average joe (like me) horseplayers to have, both in terms of yearly net profit goals and how those dollars are added up by my daily play...

(From what I gather from the POLLS here at PA, the majority of players are struggling to even break even year-wise...we sometimes hear from, or hear of, the EMD's of the sport who appear on the surface to be gambling wizards, and of course, the sharks and whales are always there in the deeps, feeding off us anchovies and krills...)

...So I love the fact that I am finally giving some thought to this, because, frankly, winning 15% of my $300 bankroll, which is $45 for the day...doesn't seem too terribly tough...most days I get up by more than that early on (But then play it all back, and more on top of that, because I was an action hound). So we will see how it goes on day One...

...But, I don't know, I'm like you, who thinks, "why place artificial constraints on your play, when we know that each race is unique and presents its own set of opportunities/ pitfalls...? That we ought to bet MORE sometimes. less other times, etc.

And I think I will have a very difficult time quitting when I reach that rather modest day score amount (for me, right now, of $45)....But if I can step back and see how this thing MIGHT BE DOABLE (and that's a big might), what more could I reasonably expect from my play then to be, say $10,000 on the plus side come this time next year...

...These are the conversations I'd like to have with some of you here at PA, because it gives me some sort of idea, what is reasonable and what is not, how much money I should be looking to push thru the windows in order to do that...this from REAL players who do this daily and who are actually successful doing what they do....

thaskalos
01-09-2018, 11:26 PM
When I was first starting out in this game, I was influenced by Ray Taulbot's money-management advice...and I was eager to quit betting and go home once I secured my "day's pay" at the track.

I was at the track on a particular day, and I told an acquaintance there that I liked 4 horses on that day's program. As luck would have it, my very first betting choice won...thus securing me my "day's pay" a lot sooner than I expected. As I was gathering my belongings and getting ready to go home...this acquaintance of mine asked me why I was leaving, when I still had promising betting choices for later on in the day. "I already made my money for today", I told him with a certain degree of cockiness...to which he replied: "Son, if you are looking to get paid daily, don't come to the track. Get yourself a job as a waiter". Wiser words have never been spoken...IMO.

Dave Schwartz
01-10-2018, 01:08 AM
I find this very interesting. It is easy to do quickly. If you are only playing 1 horse in the race, is there a minimum % that tells you to play or not to play?

Jay,

It needs to be calibrated, but for me it is a 30% bet.

The formula is:

TotalRaceBet = $100 x NotBet% x NotCont%

When I am betting ALL the contenders, the formula is:
TotalRaceBet = $100 x NotBet%

Thus, in a race with 3 contenders, where you are betting all 3, and they comprise 60% of the pool you would have a $40 bet (actually 40 units).


If you are playing a single horse, make sure that you are still picking contenders, otherwise you will simply bet more money on the longshots and less on the favorites. Some people will like that idea until they are singling a 30/1 horse and the system wants to bet 90+ units.

Dave

jay68802
01-10-2018, 01:17 AM
Jay,

It needs to be calibrated, but for me it is a 30% bet.

The formula is:

TotalRaceBet = $100 x NotBet% x NotCont%

When I am betting ALL the contenders, the formula is:
TotalRaceBet = $100 x NotBet%

Thus, in a race with 3 contenders, where you are betting all 3, and they comprise 60% of the pool you would have a $40 bet (actually 40 units).


If you are playing a single horse, make sure that you are still picking contenders, otherwise you will simply bet more money on the longshots and less on the favorites. Some people will like that idea until they are singling a 30/1 horse and the system wants to bet 90+ units.

Dave

:eek:

Thanks

I did a quick excell sheet so i can just cut and paste and get the %. Will follow it for a while and see what happens. As they say, I'm a old dog, and this is a new trick.

ultracapper
01-10-2018, 02:51 AM
I started playing in 1982. My first winning year was 2008. In 2008, I made about $31,000 in bets, and cashed roughly $34,000 in winners. By this time, I was betting as I do today, W/P. In 2008, there was a 3 week period where it really came together as I always had envisioned it. I made about $7,000 in bets in that 3 week span, and cashed about $19,000 of winning tickets. That was 3 of 52 weeks. Don't know if there is any lesson there, but that was my first winning year, the 26th year of action, and it all was just a 3 week period of clarity.

But the confidence I built with that experience. It was a major leap in many, many ways.

CincyHorseplayer
01-10-2018, 08:06 AM
I never cease to be amazed at my own arrogance. I've always been a good handicapper but not a great bettor. But these days the simplest tweaks in both handicapping and betting make the most difference. In regards to betting I have always looked at probable payoffs but never just made a payoff grid and calculated even payouts to get say a 6-1 return. That in and of itself is not earth shattering but the realization that you could have 4-6 outcomes in a race to get that return as opposed to a single outcome of a 6-1 winner that can be hit or miss and that this can be done on horses whose win odds are often substantially less is huge. And many times this can be done finishing 2nd also to top contenders. Looking at exacta payouts give an indication of probables for tris and supers as do doubles for p3 and p4 bets. I am not a huge bettor but playing in this manner without having a bigger bank for coverage I've tended to stick to exacta, doubles, and P3's. Having a bigger denomination on those bets pays more than lesser denominations on the other bets in my experience. Plus having higher denominations period within your bet structure leads to better overall payoffs. This is all basic stuff. I too often took it for granted. Betting similar amounts to the opening poster daily my ROI on these plays has been 2.39 for every 1.00 wagered since the winter meets began. But more importantly the amount of money I have made has doubled compared to last year at this time when I was win centric and basic double key/same denomination type player. And overall at this point compared to last year I had more wins and a higher average mutuel.

I guess the point that was drilled into my head rereading some books in late fall was simply making money on most likely outcomes than being focused on 1 or 2 outcomes. Cover the outcomes for an even but high enough return or no play. Add to that taking away the burden of being the smartest handicapper on earth and a higher actual profit return overall I am amazed. The subtlest of tweaks has really opened my eyes. Amazed at how stupid I am for ignoring some very basic work!

Enigma
01-10-2018, 11:57 AM
Clarification:
I started this approach August 1st 2017. My intention was to quit if and when I lost my $6,000 Bankroll. At this stage of the procedure to be on target I should have winnings of approximately $17,000 I'm not even close, however I am a winning player with a nicely improved. Bankroll.

Answers:
I do not chase my losses. Each and every day I risk $600 to obtain $110.
Today I have 7 Selections 2 are M/L Fav. 3 are Top Average Earnings. 2 are Lowest Days Off.

lamboguy
01-10-2018, 12:25 PM
Clarification:
I started this approach August 1st 2017. My intention was to quit if and when I lost my $6,000 Bankroll. At this stage of the procedure to be on target I should have winnings of approximately $17,000 I'm not even close, however I am a winning player with a nicely improved. Bankroll.

Answers:
I do not chase my losses. Each and every day I risk $600 to obtain $110.
Today I have 7 Selections 2 are M/L Fav. 3 are Top Average Earnings. 2 are Lowest Days Off.the part that i don't understand is that if you have an edge, how could you possibly know that it wasn't going to work for you after you have won your "days pay"?

the way i have always gambled was when i thought i had the best of it, i tried to get down for as much as i could without effecting the odds.-

jay68802
01-10-2018, 02:33 PM
One thing to say is I have enjoyed all the different ways people have gone about wagering. Everyone has their own way, and proves that there is different ways to go about this. I learned some new things and am going to test run a few of them. As always the test run is done on paper and not live. Today at Gulfstream I liked a horse in the 2nd. Following my own ways I noticed two things, the horse in the 2nd was going to be low in the odds (6-5), but the double will pay from the horse I liked in the first was 13-1. Who wants 6-5, and who wants 13-1? Needless to say at 13-1 I have a nice profit showing already and might stop playing for the day. Or maybe not, but I might, or.....

jay68802
01-10-2018, 02:40 PM
And to Dave,

I used your formula in the second and it showed that i should be wagering $100 on the selection, but the odds of 6-5 were to low for me to make the wager. at 5-2 the wager would have been placed. I think the key here is going to be how many non-contenders I can come up with. And that has always been a weak point of my handicapping. I consider myself a "forgiving" type of handicapper, so the journey begins.

oughtoh
01-10-2018, 02:45 PM
One thing to say is I have enjoyed all the different ways people have gone about wagering. Everyone has their own way, and proves that there is different ways to go about this. I learned some new things and am going to test run a few of them. As always the test run is done on paper and not live. Today at Gulfstream I liked a horse in the 2nd. Following my own ways I noticed two things, the horse in the 2nd was going to be low in the odds (6-5), but the double will pay from the horse I liked in the first was 13-1. Who wants 6-5, and who wants 13-1? Needless to say at 13-1 I have a nice profit showing already and might stop playing for the day. Or maybe not, but I might, or.....

That is where I use to just bet the double instead of just betting the horse in the first race and the second horse would lose. I have learn to at least have something on the horse in the first race. bLoss to many times before I learned my lesson.

jay68802
01-10-2018, 02:58 PM
That is where I use to just bet the double instead of just betting the horse in the first race and the second horse would lose. I have learn to at least have something on the horse in the first race. bLoss to many times before I learned my lesson.

Been there, done that, it can be a aggravating game once in a while.

Robert Fischer
01-10-2018, 03:38 PM
http://oi64.tinypic.com/2hoenbn.jpg


Worth mentioning, is the amount of value that depends on the favorite(s).

Your ticket structure and wagering should reflect your opinion of the favorite(s) in some way.


Maybe you 'pass' the race, or 'single' a true favorite? Maybe you look to bet, or 'spread' in a race with a false favorite?


http://oi63.tinypic.com/154hfv5.jpg

Enigma
01-10-2018, 04:14 PM
Early finish to the day:
1st Gulfstream #7 Miss Stalward
Top win %
2nd best Average earnings
Lowest days off.

2nd paying $8.00.

Profit $250

oughtoh
01-10-2018, 04:18 PM
Do you give each category a number. So for that race he would have had top number for 2 categories and second for the other.

Enigma
01-10-2018, 04:58 PM
ENTIRELY !!!

VigorsTheGrey
01-10-2018, 05:03 PM
Early finish to the day:
1st Gulfstream #7 Miss Stalward
Top win %
2nd best Average earnings
Lowest days off.

2nd paying $8.00.

Profit $250

Nice...! Thanks for the clarifications...really helps out to hear from others how they are really betting. I know this is tough for some of us to do. We naturally don't want to give away what is working for fear that others may do the same and somehow depress our odds...I cannot tell if those kind of feelings are rational or not...but I thank you for your courage and willingness to do so and share your ideas...there are many others here at PA that have done the same, thanks again to all of you...

For me, I can tell you from the start that my betting behavior is highly irrational. I'm all across the board...one race, I'll bet win/ place...another, dime supers...others p3 and p4's...

Most days I'll start with my $300 bankroll, get up quickly, bet virtually every race I can playing it all back and with it most of my bankroll...its embarrassing to tell all you guys but I'm sure everyone here has at one time or another been where I am and DONE THAT...

...All I can say is that the Track must absolutely love guys like me...a professional CHURNER like me adds many thousands of dollars in take-out to their bottom line...sometimes I feel like I am working for the track whether I lose or win...:rolleyes:

But since I have been thinking about target profit goals, ROI, and how much money I need to push through the windows to makes this work, has got me thinking...I suspect there is a NEGATIVE CORRELATION working here....say one sets a profit goal of $10,000 for the year (a modest, albeit realistic goal, since the majority of horse players are losing players year-wise)

....that the lower your ROI, the more money you'll need to push to obtain your target goal, and that is the NEGATIVE CORRELATION....

Now from what I gather successful players have rather low ROI's, (1.02 to 1.07) move massive amounts of funds, and are involved with REBATES (which provide the necessary edge to make it all work)...This level of play is simply out of reach for me as well as most other people....so I really appreciate hearing how much others are wagering in order to win how much back, etc...

oughtoh
01-10-2018, 05:12 PM
Just remember there is always another race. You don't have to bet every race.
This has been a very informative and interesting post.

jay68802
01-10-2018, 05:31 PM
2 for 2 today. Both picks win and do so without getting a win bet off yet. Again playing the double with 2 horses in the first leg this time gets 6-1. Still have 1 more race that I like and a profit that is numerically pleasing.

jay68802
01-10-2018, 06:29 PM
And the day ends with a large thump back to reality. The horse I played got the lead from the start and decided to stop and help the track crew finish their dutys. stiil a good day.

VigorsTheGrey
01-10-2018, 06:32 PM
And the day ends with a large thump back to reality. The horse I played got the lead from the start and decided to stop and help the track crew finish their dutys. stiil a good day.

So how did you tweak your wagers today that proved successful?

jay68802
01-10-2018, 07:22 PM
I tried Dave's method today, and found out that my nighttime program writing skills need to be double checked by a fresh mind in the morning. today was the start of a trial run and after some adjusting showed promise. But I bet today like I normally do. I have a minimum odds that I will take on win bets, and it goes according to field size. The minimum odds on the double is 1.5 of minimum win odds x # of horses in the first leg. So if I use 3 horses in the first leg of the double, and the minimum win bet odds on my selection in the next race is 4-1. The minimum payout on the lowest double is 18-1.

jay68802
01-10-2018, 07:34 PM
Field Size.....5 or -....6.......7.......8......9+
MLine...........Minimum Odds
5-1 or -........5/2.....5/2....5/2....3/1...4/1

6-1 to 8-1.....5/2.....5/2....3/1....7/2...4/1

9-1 to 15-1...5/2.....7/2....4/1....4/1...9/2

Over 15-1..........12-1

If the odds are above the morning line by 3 points or more pass.
If the total odds on the two favorites are less than the minimum odds pass.
If your pick is one of the two favorites, pass as the favorite.

VigorsTheGrey
01-10-2018, 09:50 PM
I think Enigma's approach has many positives going for it...

Bet size wise, $50Win/ $100 Place is a lot more than I am comfortable betting...But I can maybe try $10Win/$20Place for awhile to get me started...I know from experience that it is tough to make headway betting too little...your winnings just don't seem to add up to much...But first I'll try my lower wager and see how that goes.

....I just think that my $9 wager (3% of $300) might not be enough to make any real traction....I have also thought about just how I would make the wager: win, ex tri dime super, what?

Remember, my goal is to make 15% of my bankroll of $300 which is $45...then I make the decision to quit for the day....or RESIZE my base wager to 15% of $345 or what ever my new bank roll happens to be after I make the NEW Top...with each NEW TOP, my base wager will increase and my bankroll will build over time...

At this point, I think I will bet the base wager ($9) as $5 to win on my top selection, and a $1 cold exacta part wheel A/bcde. The 2 wagers would combine for my total base wager.

jay68802
01-10-2018, 09:58 PM
Trust yourself.

I remember my first $50 win bet, and my first $100 dollar win bet, lost both by head. I was nervous to say the least,but kept going and am comfortable with bets like that now.

VigorsTheGrey
01-10-2018, 11:07 PM
Trust yourself.

I remember my first $50 win bet, and my first $100 dollar win bet, lost both by head. I was nervous to say the least,but kept going and am comfortable with bets like that now.

I've decided to play Oaklawn's Races on Friday: Big fields...!
Are you going to cap it also...?
If so, we can move over to the Oaklawn Thread...ok?

098poi
01-10-2018, 11:14 PM
Nice read

https://www.usracing.com/news/features/can-make-living-playing-races

jay68802
01-10-2018, 11:24 PM
I've decided to play Oaklawn's Races on Friday: Big fields...!
Are you going to cap it also...?
If so, we can move over to the Oaklawn Thread...ok?

:ThmbUp:

VigorsTheGrey
01-11-2018, 03:08 AM
Nice read

https://www.usracing.com/news/features/can-make-living-playing-races

Yes, a good read...and thank you. A quote from the article

"Many professional gamblers don’t turn out a profit of greater than 10%, so to make $150,000 profit that would equate to passing $1.5M through the windows! This is assuming that if you played $500 per play, every day during the year, you would need over eight strong plays per day. This would be difficult for the niche horseplayer who perhaps only plays turf sprints or is very particular with their plays. Rebate shops can help to soften the blow, but expenses have to be factored into the equation as well."

So this goes along with the point I've been making about how much profit we make VERSUS how much we have to push thru the windows to get that amount...If you set your goal of $10,000 profit, be prepared to push $100,000 thru the windows in order to get that....and the lower your ROI, the more you must pump in to reach that profit goal...

Making any kind of real money in the game requires intense organization, discipline, accounting skills, and massive amounts of cash...sure a few folks get lucky, just like some folks are lucky to hit the lottery...

...and along the way, you are making the track more money than you receive yourself, so you are really a type of servant of the track, yeah, they don't own you, but you spend all your time there working for them, albeit enjoying yourself, passing your life away, living a virtual life in a simulcast center ...

thaskalos
01-11-2018, 05:13 AM
Yes, a good read...and thank you. A quote from the article

"Many professional gamblers donít turn out a profit of greater than 10%, so to make $150,000 profit that would equate to passing $1.5M through the windows! This is assuming that if you played $500 per play, every day during the year, you would need over eight strong plays per day. This would be difficult for the niche horseplayer who perhaps only plays turf sprints or is very particular with their plays. Rebate shops can help to soften the blow, but expenses have to be factored into the equation as well."

So this goes along with the point I've been making about how much profit we make VERSUS how much we have to push thru the windows to get that amount...If you set your goal of $10,000 profit, be prepared to push $100,000 thru the windows in order to get that....and the lower your ROI, the more you must pump in to reach that profit goal...

Making any kind of real money in the game requires intense organization, discipline, accounting skills, and massive amounts of cash...sure a few folks get lucky, just like some folks are lucky to hit the lottery...

...and along the way, you are making the track more money than you receive yourself, so you are really a type of servant of the track, yeah, they don't own you, but you spend all your time there working for them, albeit enjoying yourself, passing your life away, living a virtual life in a simulcast center ...

According to every poll that I've ever seen...most people are working at unsatisfying jobs...for bosses whom they despise. Is it preferable to "pass your life" THAT way?

thaskalos
01-11-2018, 10:42 AM
Clarification:
I started this approach August 1st 2017. My intention was to quit if and when I lost my $6,000 Bankroll. At this stage of the procedure to be on target I should have winnings of approximately $17,000 I'm not even close, however I am a winning player with a nicely improved. Bankroll.

Answers:
I do not chase my losses. Each and every day I risk $600 to obtain $110.
Today I have 7 Selections 2 are M/L Fav. 3 are Top Average Earnings. 2 are Lowest Days Off.

What would happen if you bet on all your selections all of the time?

DeltaLover
01-11-2018, 10:55 AM
According to every poll that I've ever seen...most people are working at unsatisfying jobs...for bosses whom they despise. Is it preferable to "pass your life" THAT way?

Thask, the person you are describing here has no other choice but to continue doing so. Landing at an "unsatisfying job" simply implies a mediocrity and unpreparedness to join the workforce; for this type of a worker, it will be a disaster when he will try to make a living as a gambler..

thaskalos
01-11-2018, 11:06 AM
Thask, the person you are describing here has no other choice but to continue doing so. Landing at an "unsatisfying job" simply implies a mediocrity and unpreparedness to join the workforce; for this type of a worker, it will be a disaster when he will try to make a living as a gambler..

That wan't the point that I was trying to make. VigorsTheGrey, and several others here from time to time, comment about how "undesirable" the life of a professional gambler is, for a variety of reasons. And I am wondering if working a "straight job" qualifies to be called "desirable", for the vast majority of those who are "conventionally employed". I wasn't implying that anyone with a "dead-end" job could make it as a professional gambler.

thaskalos
01-11-2018, 11:22 AM
Clarification:
I started this approach August 1st 2017. My intention was to quit if and when I lost my $6,000 Bankroll. At this stage of the procedure to be on target I should have winnings of approximately $17,000 I'm not even close, however I am a winning player with a nicely improved. Bankroll.

Answers:
I do not chase my losses. Each and every day I risk $600 to obtain $110.
Today I have 7 Selections 2 are M/L Fav. 3 are Top Average Earnings. 2 are Lowest Days Off.

Okay...you say that you bet $50-win/$100-place on each selection...and that you are willing to risk $600 in order to win $110 for the day. Yesterday you had 7 bets...but you would only wager on the first 4 of them if none of them cashed...right? Because you would have already lost the $600 after the first 4 losing bets...am I right? And if you lose $600 on one day...do you still quit when you make your $110 profit on the NEXT day?

Please don't think that I am "cross-examining" you here. I am just trying to understand your method.

Enigma
01-11-2018, 11:42 AM
YES

To answer another of your queries if I had wagered on all of my selections I would be like most of the players at this game a loser.
Stop when winning is my golden-rule.

AndyC
01-11-2018, 12:12 PM
YES

To answer another of your queries if I had wagered on all of my selections I would be like most of the players at this game a loser.
Stop when winning is my golden-rule.

So why not just wager on your best selections? If I believed betting on all of my selections would make me a loser, I would find another hobby.

Enigma
01-11-2018, 12:51 PM
Why would I want to change my approach? I'm WINNING !!! Long may it last.

AndyC
01-11-2018, 01:11 PM
Why would I want to change my approach? I'm WINNING !!! Long may it last.

Congratulations on winning, that is a lofty achievement that every horseplayer strives to do. However, I don't believe that your approach is responsible for your success. Your handicapping must be outstanding.

Why would you want to change your approach? I don't know? If you have reached an optimum level of contentment with your results, then obviously you would be foolish to do so. If increasing your winnings is a goal then why wouldn't you change?

VigorsTheGrey
01-11-2018, 01:26 PM
That wan't the point that I was trying to make. VigorsTheGrey, and several others here from time to time, comment about how "undesirable" the life of a professional gambler is, for a variety of reasons. And I am wondering if working a "straight job" qualifies to be called "desirable", for the vast majority of those who are "conventionally employed". I wasn't implying that anyone with a "dead-end" job could make it as a professional gambler.

It is only recently that I have begun to understand my work role at the track as a PROFESSIONAL GRINDER and WORLD CLASS CHURNER. And like a dissatisfied worker, stuck in a dead-end job, I have vowed to change all that, hence this thread.

If I now find the gambling life somewhat "undesirable" (but certainly NOT unbearable) it is because I have finally internalized the realities of the game, and have ended the delusions of reaping anything more from it than mere marginal gains, entertainment, and the sheer JOY of being involved in the sport.

Robert Fischer
01-11-2018, 02:05 PM
Nothing wrong when quitting while winning.

It shouldn't be a hard-fast 'rule'.

There are a handful of rare days when you have multiple great plays that shouldn't be passed up.


Same is true with the opposite. You have to sometimes concede a day as a losing day, rather than chasing.

Enigma
01-11-2018, 06:41 PM
Another winning day with a profit of $220.
1st wager result...place $5.00
2nd wager result..place $2.80
3rd wager result..win$ 8.00 place $4.60

All of my claims are fully documented. I now fully believe we have reached the end of this discussion when members start recommending I find another hobby.

GOOD LUCK & GOOD RACING !!!

VigorsTheGrey
01-11-2018, 07:02 PM
Another winning day with a profit of $220.
1st wager result...place $5.00
2nd wager result..place $2.80
3rd wager result..win$ 8.00 place $4.60

All of my claims are fully documented. I now fully believe we have reached the end of this discussion when members start recommending I find another hobby.

GOOD LUCK & GOOD RACING !!!

Thanks Enigma, I've struggled over the years to find a wager size that was not too small, yet not too large, as well as a solid percentage of my bankroll...Your Win wager percentage is 8% and your Place wager percentage is 17% for a combined percentage or 25% of your bankroll...I think that is a good way to wager. Basically, you get 4 tries to make headway before you quit for the day if you bust...One question I have is "Do you keep betting your picks if you are under $110 profit until you make it or you bust...or do you just quit after a given number of bets...?

PS I don't think anyone is suggesting you get another hobby...I for one have greatly appreciated everything you have shared and hope you continue on the thread with us...

lamboguy
01-11-2018, 07:08 PM
Thanks Enigma, I've struggled over the years to find a wager size that was not too small, yet not too large, as well as a solid percentage of my bankroll...Your Win wager percentage is 8% and your Place wager percentage is 17% for a combined percentage or 25% of your bankroll...I think that is a good way to wager. Basically, you get 4 tries to make headway before you quit for the day if you bust...One question I have is "Do you keep betting your picks if you are under $110 profit until you make it or you bust...or do you just quit after a given number of bets...?

PS I don't think anyone is suggesting you get another hobby...I for one have greatly appreciated everything you have shared and hope you continue on the thread with us...CAN'T YOU SEE HIS PICKS ARE WINNING EVERY DAY. if you or i could be like Enigma, we would be playing that way too!

VigorsTheGrey
01-11-2018, 08:02 PM
CAN'T YOU SEE HIS PICKS ARE WINNING EVERY DAY. if you or i could be like Enigma, we would be playing that way too!

Totally agree..! I think his method is a great way to go...his bet size and ratio appear to be optimal....I have read how other people have had success with the (1) Unit Win + (2) Unit Place formula...