View Full Version : Santa Anita 1/5/2018

01-05-2018, 01:16 PM
Man, you gotta be flexible if you want to be a successful horse race handicapper.

3rd race: :5: Ransomed

Is there such a thing as an improving 5 yo mare? 99 times out 100 my answer would be a big fat NO. On top of that, as a handicapper, I've always been class sensitive. Throw it all out here.

Trainer Gonzalez is still trying to get to know this 4yo October debuter. He gave her a shot in MSW to start, where she couldn't compete. 2nd race, dropped her to the basement, where, though she won in unimpressive clocking, won as though she could have beaten that kind 4 out of 5 times. It really was an easier win on the track than it looked on paper. Last out, at Claiming $16K n2l, she was easily the best horse in the race. Physically squeezed back at the break, she settled quite quickly and in a very professional manner, bid her time to the 3/8th pole, where for the next 1/8th of a mile looked for the best running lane. Finally found it at the 1/4 pole, and finished very strong. So, and I believe trainer Gonzalez to be correct, the trainer feels she can fit at this higher n2l level. The pace should be contested, yet tepid, with none of the first flight runners showing an inclination to separate from the field at the 3/16ths pole, therefore begging for a finisher to come over the top and into the winner's circle. She looks to have come out of her last race in good order with a nice work tab since. The price should be square.

4th race: :9: Cat's Blame

Toss the last race, something I'm always squirrelly about doing. It was an impossible trip and set-up for him however.

6th race: :1: Candy Boss

Kind of a "co-favorite" with the outside horse, a horse coming off a 10 month layoff, a horse being assessed on "race for age" experience. These may be the lowliest of the low for older horses in SoCal, but :8: Singlefoareason is still coming off a long layoff and facing older horses for the first time. As a handicapper, that should always be a big fat toss, particularly since there is absolutely nothing impressive about her youthful form, or her workouts, coming into this. Prat will attract the bettors money though. Best of luck with that. :1: has always run well after a little break. She's worked well for this, and is taking a major class drop. Sadler has seen enough and realizes this mare isn't going to be what he once hoped she would be. He won't be heart broken if she gets red tagged, particularly since she should be getting her picture taken with it.

01-06-2018, 01:50 AM