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letswastemoney
01-01-2018, 01:15 AM
Who doesn't love handicapping races where a son of Zenyatta is running?

1/1 Santa Anita R2

:1: Momma's Baby Boy (4-1) - As a closer, he had a fast pace in the Nov. 24 race and couldn't do anything with it. Jockey lost the whip though. Minor player.

:2: Boogalute (8-1) - Most interesting horse from a value standpoint. If he's ready to run, his running lines indicate a horse who can't wait to go two turns.

:3: Bold Papa (5-1) - Tough break getting disqualified last time on turf. His last dirt effort is good, although it came in restricted state-bred company. Maybe.

:4: Hollywood Strike (7/2) - Ziconic's stablemate only fights when put around the lead. That is likely why they opted to send him hard in the most recent effort. If he breaks poorly, forget about winning.

:5: Antioch (4-1) - New connections opt to route this one. But, does he belong going two turns? When Richard Mandella trained him, he went five starts without routing. It seems clear the old team did not feel comfortable taking him farther.

:6: Fi Fi's Wild Heart (8-1) - Wild card. He is a first time starter making his debut as a 4-year-old. Jeff Mullins is okay with first timers, hitting at a 10% rate.

:7: Ziconic (5/2) - Does anyone believe he can win anymore? Initially, he seemed more talented than Cozmic One. But, Ziconic is content with just picking up checks. Nevertheless, on speed figures, he fits as one of the main contenders.

Conclusion

Inclined to side with :2: Boogulate.

What do you think?

GMB@BP
01-01-2018, 01:39 AM
This is a horrible race, and worse for Ziconic is I dont see a tone of speed. Hollywood Strike should win this but he is has proven less than brave.

I guess if I was going to play the race, and I am not, then Bold Papa has at least a not proven a loser on dirt and has decent efforts.

jay68802
01-01-2018, 04:33 AM
Santa Anita Race #2:


:1: Momma's Baby Boy 4-1 The only thing interesting is Smith and Hollendorfer. Looks like he only passes bad horses, and will be out closed by others in here. Pass

:2: Boogalute 8-1 Looks to be improving and the stretch out might help. 2 6f and 1 7f work since last so at least they are trying to win here. Jockey stays and for Maidens that is a plus. Did loose ground in the stretch in last but a route pace might help. Would not surprise.

:3: Bold Papa 5-1 Might be close to the top if you notice that it is a winner running against maidens. But staggering by other bad horses is not a good sign. No thanks.

:4: Hollywood Strike 7-2 His two best races have been at this distance. Will be pressured and he has problems finishing. 11 attempts have failed so far. Contender just because he will go for the lead, but as the likely favorite or second choice, not for me.

:5: Antioch 4-1 Raced for a tag in last and won a new barn. Prat stayed with this guy and that is a good sign. Gets Talamoe today and I like the breeding for the distance. Can sit right off the pace and win the stretch run. My pick.

:6: Fi Fi's Wild Heart 8-1 Only first time starter here. Does not look like the trainer wins much in this situation. With the :2:,:4:, and :5: in here the inside clears and nice trip stalking the pace is in order. The price will be good to complete the exacta.

:7: Ziconic 5-2 Has his moms gate speed, that's for sure. Has earned almost 6 grand a start so they will keep him at this level til he catches a pace melt down. But that will not happen today. Pass.

thaskalos
01-01-2018, 06:19 AM
:1: Top connections for an honest horse who always runs to his ability. But is he talented enough to prevail against this group? My speed/pace performance-ratings for his two route races are 94.5 and 93.0, respectively.

:2: Two races in 18 months, and exits yet another layoff for a trainer who doesn't quite excel in routes...or with sprint-to-route stretchouts. The last race featured a slow last 3 furlongs, and yet the horse failed to gain any ground in the interim. This shows me that this sparsely-raced horse isn't yet in adequate condition to negotiate the longer distance of ground that he is asked to cover today.

:3: This horse appears equally capable on turf and dirt, but the two 90.5 ratings that he has earned in his last two turf races do not stamp him as a bonafide win-contender in this race.

:4: At first glance this horse doesn't inspire much confidence as the winner of this race...but a closer look boosts his winning chances considerably. I've rated his last three races at 99.5, 89.0, and 103.0 respectively...and he stumbled badly in his low-rated race. His best race, figure-wise, was the third-back when he was kept off the lead...so he needn't go to the front today, IMO. He ran a very quick half-mile in his last race...and I expect a more "balanced" effort today.

:5: Ran worse figure-wise in his last race when compared to his prior one, even though he took a steep drop in class...and this is my strongest elimination rule. His last race was also the type of grueling effort that I hate to see when the horse rises in class for his subsequent start. Throw in the added distance and the sparse racing record...and this is an easy toss for me.

:6: Jeff Mullins' FTS who could be any kind...but it might be noteworthy to observe that Mullins' horses seldom win route races when Tyler Baze is in the saddle. Let's tab the toteboard on this one.

:7: I've rated his last three races at 98.0, 97.5 and 100.0...so I can't blame "inconsistency" for his failure to have already won a race. He can string good races together...but always seems to run into faster horses than he is. And, with the appearance of the :4: in this race...this horse looks to be second-best yet again.

I like the :4:, :7:, :1: in that order...but, given that the crowd will probably come to the same conclusion...the odds of actually placing a wager in this race are practically nil.

Poindexter
01-01-2018, 09:24 AM
Do not like this race at all. Off Bris figures 4-5-7 look fairly close in ability and best. That being said, not liking the jockey change on Hollywood Strike, also not liking the fact he will likely see some strong early heat from Antioch. Don't like the fact that Antioch was thrown away for 40 last out(they paid $210,000 for him) by Mandella and claimed by really low profile connections. Ziconic, Espinoza opts here over Hollywood Strike, and nothing wrong with him other than he comes form very far back. By the time he gets into the race sombody is usually ready to pose for a picture. From a pace standpoint looks like the 4 and 5 duel on the lead and the the 2 sits the dream trip. I will take a shot on the 2 Boogalute if I can get 6-1 plus.

Robert Fischer
01-01-2018, 11:28 AM
Race is lacking a winner.

Could be a 'default winner' with some potential for a price.

Of the prices, most interesting is the :6: FI FI'S WILD HEART.
This is a big, goofy, energetic guy. Mullins is a class act, and although it's disconcerting that this horse has taken some time to get to the races, he could well be primed for a strong debut.

Not as fun, nor as big a price, the :1: MOMMA'S BABY BOY is in good form and can win a 'default' style race by simply moving into contention down the backstretch and out-driving the other duds. Value here is dependent on the uncoupled Shirreffs entry is underlaid. If :1: MOMMA'S BABY BOY is favored, this becomes a tough race to play.

:4: HOLLYWOOD STRIKE has the paper form that will match some strong angles, but he seems to be a quitter. Maragh is a bit of a wildcard, but it's not like Rajiv is some feared wire-to-wire jock. He may simply be ensuring a pace for the Zenyatta baby.

:7: ZICONIC is not completely impossible, but figures to be a sizable underlay.

Exotic1
01-01-2018, 12:59 PM
:1: Top connections for an honest horse who always runs to his ability. But is he talented enough to prevail against this group? My speed/pace performance-ratings for his two route races are 94.5 and 93.0, respectively.

:2: Two races in 18 months, and exits yet another layoff for a trainer who doesn't quite excel in routes...or with sprint-to-route stretchouts. The last race featured a slow last 3 furlongs, and yet the horse failed to gain any ground in the interim. This shows me that this sparsely-raced horse isn't yet in adequate condition to negotiate the longer distance of ground that he is asked to cover today.

:3: This horse appears equally capable on turf and dirt, but the two 90.5 ratings that he has earned in his last two turf races do not stamp him as a bonafide win-contender in this race.

:4: At first glance this horse doesn't inspire much confidence as the winner of this race...but a closer look boosts his winning chances considerably. I've rated his last three races at 99.5, 89.0, and 103.0 respectively...and he stumbled badly in his low-rated race. His best race, figure-wise, was the third-back when he was kept off the lead...so he needn't go to the front today, IMO. He ran a very quick half-mile in his last race...and I expect a more "balanced" effort today.

:5: Ran worse figure-wise in his last race when compared to his prior one, even though he took a steep drop in class...and this is my strongest elimination rule. His last race was also the type of grueling effort that I hate to see when the horse rises in class for his subsequent start. Throw in the added distance and the sparse racing record...and this is an easy toss for me.

:6: Jeff Mullins' FTS who could be any kind...but it might be noteworthy to observe that Mullins' horses seldom win route races when Tyler Baze is in the saddle. Let's tab the toteboard on this one.

:7: I've rated his last three races at 98.0, 97.5 and 100.0...so I can't blame "inconsistency" for his failure to have already won a race. He can string good races together...but always seems to run into faster horses than he is. And, with the appearance of the :4: in this race...this horse looks to be second-best yet again.

I like the :4:, :7:, :1: in that order...but, given that the crowd will probably come to the same conclusion...the odds of actually placing a wager in this race are practically nil.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

I can't add anything on a technical level so maybe a high-level overview:

Routers:

:4: - Doesn't need lead, should (he better) relax behind the :5:. He put his best races at 1 1/16 SA. Lack of pace and circumstance put this horse on the lead in a few of his races. Track playing to his running style. Drops 2 pounds to :1:in common 11/24 race.

:7: - Track playing against. Not getting better. Best race to date was 5/26/16 1 1/16 SA.

:1: - Cons: common race to :4: on 11/24. Unimpressive. Pros: 3rd race off layoff, good work on 12/28. I'm not impressed.

:3: - needs to improve


Sprinters:

:2: - no clue. Not fast early. Slow late.

:5: - Should have lead by himself. Ellis (on suspension) from Mandella. Race 2 back was better, but as Thask said they dropped off of that good race and did not improve. Track could help.

FTS:

:6: Think he'll need some racing.

Robert Fischer
01-01-2018, 04:10 PM
I could use some Daily Double practice.

Here is my opinion from r1 into the Ziconic race 2:

$29 DD :1::7: w/ :1: = $58
$8 DD :6: w/ :1: = $8
$8 DD :1::7: w/ :7: = $16
$6 DD :6: w/ :7: = $6
$4 DD :5: w/ :1: = $4
$4 DD :1::7: w/ :6: =$8
($100)

Red Knave
01-01-2018, 04:24 PM
$4 DD :1::7: w/ :6: =$8

I like this one with all the question marks in the race.

Robert Fischer
01-01-2018, 04:35 PM
:D This is a humbling game.

Red Knave
01-01-2018, 04:53 PM
:D This is a humbling game.
Often wrong, never in doubt. :ThmbUp:

Robert Fischer
01-01-2018, 04:55 PM
:4: Hollywood Strike is not taking as much money as I had hoped.

:2: BOOGALUTE is taking a little more money than I had anticipated.


I continue to like the :1: here, but he is looking like he will be the 2nd public choice, and that isn't exactly an amazing value.

098poi
01-01-2018, 04:58 PM
For fun

:2:, :4:, :7: Ex box

098poi
01-01-2018, 05:06 PM
For fun

:2:, :4:, :7: Ex box

:2:
:1:
:7:


No fun

Robert Fischer
01-01-2018, 05:08 PM
Who doesn't love handicapping races where a son of Zenyatta is running?

1/1 Santa Anita R2

:2: Boogalute (8-1) - Most interesting horse from a value standpoint. If he's ready to run, his running lines indicate a horse who can't wait to go two turns.
Conclusion

Inclined to side with :2: Boogulate.

What do you think?



:2: Boogalute 8-1 Looks to be improving and the stretch out might help. 2 6f and 1 7f work since last so at least they are trying to win here. Jockey stays and for Maidens that is a plus. Did loose ground in the stretch in last but a route pace might help. Would not surprise.

Nice analysis :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

letswastemoney
01-01-2018, 05:22 PM
I balked from betting when I saw Boogalute was taking more money than I figured as well. But it's good to know I picked the winner lol.