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olelucky
12-30-2017, 10:48 AM
Just wondering if anyone has data on horses entering a race after being vet scratched in previous. I'm not sure how much this matters but would be curious to look at some data on this. Does it come into play in your handicapping or is it something you just generally don't care about or ignore ?

green80
12-30-2017, 04:39 PM
Just wondering if anyone has data on horses entering a race after being vet scratched in previous. I'm not sure how much this matters but would be curious to look at some data on this. Does it come into play in your handicapping or is it something you just generally don't care about or ignore ?


I wouldn't read too much into this. Without more information you really don't know if the horse was lame or if the trainer didn't want to run for whatever reason and called the vet and said my horse was coughing this morning. I have seen horses scratched with nothing being actually wrong with the horse. Unless you can get some reliable backside info, you will never know.

Ruffian1
12-30-2017, 06:22 PM
I wouldn't read too much into this. Without more information you really don't know if the horse was lame or if the trainer didn't want to run for whatever reason and called the vet and said my horse was coughing this morning. I have seen horses scratched with nothing being actually wrong with the horse. Unless you can get some reliable backside info, you will never know.


Wow Green 80, you nailed it.

The confusion for customers is not having any idea WHAT the scratch really was. It is a VET scratch so it seems like it must be important to know about?
But in reality, not at all.

It could be the horse was dead lame from a foot infection, so no big deal and in 3-4 days the horse training perfectly again or it could be that the horse is lame from a chipped knee and the horse is a mess or the horse could be " coughing" which means it really could be coughing but maybe not, being as coughing is a loophole to scratch. Why? Because if you are the state vet and a trainer says the horse is sick and the bute and pre race keeps any possible temperature down and you (the state vet) makes the horse run and the horse really was sick and falls and hurts itself or other horses or riders including it's own, YOU are liable. Gonna take that risk?

I didn't think so.

The vast majority of info that a customer has is very important but some pieces of info are not only useless but can work against you because it is a total guess and picking winners is enough of a guess to begin with without having just enough info to fool yourself.

Green 80 is totally right.

My suggestion is to ignore it.

Franco Santiago
12-30-2017, 09:22 PM
Just wondering if anyone has data on horses entering a race after being vet scratched in previous. I'm not sure how much this matters but would be curious to look at some data on this. Does it come into play in your handicapping or is it something you just generally don't care about or ignore ?

If you want to improve your game, don't ignore it. There is meaning to it, but you have to study and research to find out what that meaning is. If you find out the significance of the scratch, which I assure you exists, you will reap the rewards.

Or you can take the lazy way out and rationalize that it doesn't matter for whatever reason.

Here's another thing: if you didn't at least subconsciously think it was important, you wouldn't have asked the question.

Good luck and happy hunting.

Tom
12-30-2017, 09:33 PM
There is meaning to it, but you have to study and research to find out what that meaning is. If you find out the significance of the scratch, which I assure you exists, you will reap the rewards.

How?

Franco Santiago
12-30-2017, 09:58 PM
Well, I do it with database and SQL queries. But I suppose there are manual methods. To be honest, I only know about what I do, which of course, I don't readily share. But I am certain there are programs, databases, charts, info, whatever, out there for studying.

In reality, if the takeout wasn't so exorbitant, such study would NOT be necessary. But to beat the game, you gotta exploit every little edge you can think of. It takes tremendous commitment and passion. And a big rebate. And after that, it takes really strong mental stability and the ability to be in an optimal state of mind the great majority of the time. Most of all, it takes being in an optimal state of mind the great majority of the time...this is much, much more important than handicapping.

I would imagine that most of the people that are reading this message are pretty dang good handicappers...in other words they can decipher probabilities fairly well (when they are thinking straight and well). But, the true test is what you do after a horse you made a big bet on ducks in and dumps the jockey or your 10-1 gets DQ'd for some insane reason...you know what I mean. How DO you return to an optimal state of mind such that you can handicap well and construct a winning wager? WAY more important than knowing the advantages of the vet's list...but, hey, any (properly applied) edge is money, right?

I know, I digress...sorry. I love talking about this stuff.

Spalding No!
12-30-2017, 11:50 PM
How?
In most jurisdictions, I would presume that a "vet scratch" would necessitate putting the horse in question on some sort of Vet List. In some of these jurisdictions, the list is available to the public.

NYRA has the current NY Vet List available at:

https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/horsemen/vets-list.pdf

Santa Anita links the CHRB Vet List here:

http://www.chrb.ca.gov/veterinary.html

For other tracks, I would scour their websites, particularly in the "Horsemen's" menu. The lists may or not be available.

These lists give more meaningful information than simply "vet scratch". They often note reasons, such as "sick", "injured", or "unsound". Some might mention requirements such as workouts to be removed from the list.

To make it worthwhile, one would have to be diligent about collecting/archiving such lists. If a horse that was on the list gets off, then obviously it will no longer appear on the list and you'd have missed your chance at any relevant info. It's probably difficult to drum up past lists from anywhere.

TheOracle
12-31-2017, 12:27 AM
Just wondering if anyone has data on horses entering a race after being vet scratched in previous. I'm not sure how much this matters but would be curious to look at some data on this. Does it come into play in your handicapping or is it something you just generally don't care about or ignore ?

Hey Ole

I started trying to check for vet scratches but I didn't keep up with them

Here are some vet scratches that I saw for Aqueduct from November 4th

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/vet scratches aqu.jpg

Not sure if these horses went on to do anything after they scratched but maybe this can get you started if you are looking for what they did after they returned from a vet scratch

Hope this helps

how cliche
12-31-2017, 03:21 AM
somewhat on topic. profitable angle is playing back runners with a voided claim. connections don't wanna get known as the kind of folks who send out injured horses.

biggestal99
12-31-2017, 09:06 AM
In the uk, they put the scratched information online with its pp on the racingpost site.

Allan

Ruffian1
12-31-2017, 10:49 AM
Well, I do it with database and SQL queries. But I suppose there are manual methods. To be honest, I only know about what I do, which of course, I don't readily share. But I am certain there are programs, databases, charts, info, whatever, out there for studying.

In reality, if the takeout wasn't so exorbitant, such study would NOT be necessary. But to beat the game, you gotta exploit every little edge you can think of. It takes tremendous commitment and passion. And a big rebate. And after that, it takes really strong mental stability and the ability to be in an optimal state of mind the great majority of the time. Most of all, it takes being in an optimal state of mind the great majority of the time...this is much, much more important than handicapping.

I would imagine that most of the people that are reading this message are pretty dang good handicappers...in other words they can decipher probabilities fairly well (when they are thinking straight and well). But, the true test is what you do after a horse you made a big bet on ducks in and dumps the jockey or your 10-1 gets DQ'd for some insane reason...you know what I mean. How DO you return to an optimal state of mind such that you can handicap well and construct a winning wager? WAY more important than knowing the advantages of the vet's list...but, hey, any (properly applied) edge is money, right?

I know, I digress...sorry. I love talking about this stuff.


Lol.

Robert Fischer
12-31-2017, 11:32 AM
Well, I do it with database and SQL queries. But I suppose there are manual methods. To be honest, I only know about what I do, which of course, I don't readily share. But I am certain there are programs, databases, charts, info, whatever, out there for studying.

In reality, if the takeout wasn't so exorbitant, such study would NOT be necessary. But to beat the game, you gotta exploit every little edge you can think of. It takes tremendous commitment and passion. And a big rebate. And after that, it takes really strong mental stability and the ability to be in an optimal state of mind the great majority of the time. Most of all, it takes being in an optimal state of mind the great majority of the time...this is much, much more important than handicapping.

I would imagine that most of the people that are reading this message are pretty dang good handicappers...in other words they can decipher probabilities fairly well (when they are thinking straight and well). But, the true test is what you do after a horse you made a big bet on ducks in and dumps the jockey or your 10-1 gets DQ'd for some insane reason...you know what I mean. How DO you return to an optimal state of mind such that you can handicap well and construct a winning wager? WAY more important than knowing the advantages of the vet's list...but, hey, any (properly applied) edge is money, right?

I know, I digress...sorry. I love talking about this stuff.

I like everything you say here.

My understanding is that it may be useful with a few trainers, and/or when combined with certain significant class drops (vs the scratched-out entry race, not the previous officially listed race).

It's a nice 'red flag' to be aware of. What makes it more interesting and potentially valuable (although not necessarily any more significant) compared to other 'red flags' (layoffs, workouts, class drops, private sales, jock switches, etc...) is the fact that it isn't published.

You see a red flag, and maybe it's a soft no ('pass') on a potential wager. Occasionally, the red flag and other factors will provide enough synergy to create a hard no ('bet against').


Green and Ruffian make good points;

Unless you can get some reliable backside info, you will never know.

Considering that the bulk of the pool money is bet on the entries of a relatively small number of trainers, I would be shocked if some whales/well-connected players did not obtain inside information.

green80
12-31-2017, 11:41 AM
In most jurisdictions, I would presume that a "vet scratch" would necessitate putting the horse in question on some sort of Vet List. In some of these jurisdictions, the list is available to the public.

NYRA has the current NY Vet List available at:

https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/horsemen/vets-list.pdf

Santa Anita links the CHRB Vet List here:

http://www.chrb.ca.gov/veterinary.html

For other tracks, I would scour their websites, particularly in the "Horsemen's" menu. The lists may or not be available.

These lists give more meaningful information than simply "vet scratch". They often note reasons, such as "sick", "injured", or "unsound". Some might mention requirements such as workouts to be removed from the list.

To make it worthwhile, one would have to be diligent about collecting/archiving such lists. If a horse that was on the list gets off, then obviously it will no longer appear on the list and you'd have missed your chance at any relevant info. It's probably difficult to drum up past lists from anywhere.

Most places it's hard to find out the reasons for a vet scratch. Usually there is some time period you have to wait after a vet scratch (usually 7 days) but that's nothing, its usually that long before your race comes up again because entries are usually 3-7 days or longer before the race.

Horses that require a work are sometimes listed as on the stewards list, such as no coggins, poor performer, lack of paperwork etc. and are shown as a stewards scratch. A horse that pulls up lame during the race is usually shown in the form as pulled up or stopped, walked off.

If I was going to factor this into my handicapping I would look at the length of time between the scratch and the next entry for the horse. A short time period, say less than 30 days would indicate not much of a problem. 6 months or more would indicate a more serious problem that the horse may or may not have healed from. Keep in mind with the vet checks and the track vet keeping an eye on all the horses warming up it is pretty hard to get by and run an unsound horse. You will also see jockeys refuse to ride and get off a horse after warming up as they can sometimes feel things that the vet cannot see. That's the ones that I will not bet.

Bennie
12-31-2017, 11:47 AM
there are also times when a trainer has no intention of running their horse, knowing the vet would not allow them to run, but will enter so the racing secretary can fill a race. I don't think it happens every day but it does happen from time to time.

green80
12-31-2017, 01:13 PM
there are also times when a trainer has no intention of running their horse, knowing the vet would not allow them to run, but will enter so the racing secretary can fill a race. I don't think it happens every day but it does happen from time to time.


Don't know why because the racing secretary can let a race go with five or off one with nine, it's his choice.

ubercapper
01-02-2018, 11:19 AM
I haven't run any queries yet, but Stats Race Lens does let users run queries on scratches, alone or in combination with various other factors.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/picture.php?albumid=6&pictureid=19



You can also merge scratches within past performance lines.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/picture.php?albumid=6&pictureid=20

green80
01-02-2018, 03:51 PM
I haven't run any queries yet, but Stats Race Lens does let users run queries on scratches, alone or in combination with various other factors.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/picture.php?albumid=6&pictureid=19



You can also merge scratches within past performance lines.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/picture.php?albumid=6&pictureid=20

Would be interesting to see if they underperform relative to any non-scratched horses, all else being the same.