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View Full Version : Why is the 9 hole here being described as the best?


caper
12-28-2017, 05:12 AM
So this may be a simple question to answer, but I bet more harness then thoroughbred. Looking at the Daily racing form comments for Thirsdays races at Gulfstream. Here is the description on the 4th race:

FOURTH RACE
WARREN’S JOE T., today’s best bet, can fire fresh and draws best

The horse in question drew the 9. Why would that be considered best?

In race 1 a seven furlong race the rail horse is described as

SHAR RAN is stuck inside but does have some positional
speed

Wouldn't the rail in a six horse field be the place to be?

I'm confused.

Robert Fischer
12-28-2017, 09:48 AM
Post position has potential to affect both 'ground loss' and 'pace pressure/comfort'.

The distance of the starting gate from the 1st turn is the major factor.


7f or 1m @ Gulfstream have a gate placement far from the turn. This means that wide posts will not cause ground loss. However, there will be some pace pressure to obtain a decent position. This pace pressure is greatest inside where a filly like Shar Ran (and a jock like Leparoux who at times can be overly conservative) has to have the right amount of urgency to secure position without being burried and shuffled back from other traffic (like the 3,5,6) who want to secure forward inside position as well. An inside post here is forced to break well, and the jockey doesn't get to read the break.

In the 4th race @ 1m, the 9 Warren's Joe T draws outside, so that allows Saez the luxury of racing naturally, and reading how the early pace develops after the break.

When the starting gate is close to the turn (as in the 2nd race), it is a different story. Now outside posts are the ones forced to break well (or lose ground on the 1st turn). This gives prices like the 1(draws inside and has decent enough early pace to potentially secure a good trip) and the 6(last time drew widest, improved off layoff, depends on whether she is improving or sore) a chance to hit the board, while forcing the hand of what is potentially the best horse in the race (the 9).

Robert Fischer
12-28-2017, 06:59 PM
R1) jockey change to Jose Ortiz, the 1 took a bunch of money, broke well(thus offsetting any post position concerns) and was good value to pay $6.
"SHAR RAN was strong on top out of the gate,..."

R2) The 9 got hung wide into the 1st turn, The 1 was able to 'play' the first turn and hit the board as the longest shot in the field as discussed above, There were two contenders with inside draws (2 and 4) and one of them won, and another of inside half (5) sucked-up for 2nd. The $2 daily double was a good value even at $24, and the 0.50Tri 24 w/123456 w/123456 paid $650 for a $20 outlay, and the 1 paid $9 to show. With the 9 finishing last in that trip, obviously you want to use that one (9 Divine Caroline) when she comes back.
"CHART COMMENTS were stupid for this race, and I will not quote them..."

R4) The 5 got bet down to favoritism from 4th choice on the morning line, and the 5 ended up getting the outside press/stalk trip that the writer was looking for from the 9 horse. The 9 did not fire. The 6 ended up sucking-up early and then tackling the 5 in the stretch with a better turn - stretch kick.
"5 CHATIMENT settled while rated along outside going through the backstretch, challenged POLITICAL JUSTICE for lead in turn then took on eventual winner turning for home..."

caper
12-28-2017, 10:42 PM
In the end I was confused by two comments. The 1 ended up winning, the 9 4 or 5 wide then faded.

davew
12-29-2017, 07:35 AM
the inside post needs to use extra speed early or else risks the chance of being under 'heavy cover' - a 3,4,or 5 wide wall in front of them

the outside posts with long run to turn can move over at their pleasure and still be outside of others

the outside posts with short run to turn needs to use extra speed early or risk being very wide and / or behind a wall of horses

usually (but not always) the horses do not have periods during the race to slow down and relax, but are running closer to as fast as they can so 'extra speed early' has big impact at end of race

racing 'under cover' frequently results in blocked / trapped with no where to go when they want to

caper
12-29-2017, 12:14 PM
the inside post needs to use extra speed early or else risks the chance of being under 'heavy cover' - a 3,4,or 5 wide wall in front of them


I get that. But for all the talk of it, room almost always opens up.

Robert Fischer
12-30-2017, 06:12 PM
usually (but not always) the horses do not have periods during the race to slow down and relax, but are running closer to as fast as they can so 'extra speed early' has big impact at end of race

this is pretty much the crux of the matter

davew
12-31-2017, 04:58 PM
I get that. But for all the talk of it, room almost always opens up.

watch a replay of Gulfstreams' Race 8 12/31/17 - a 7 1/2 f on the turf

there were quite a few horses that were slowed/blocked behind tiring horses that went out fast

usfgeology
01-11-2018, 01:22 AM
the inside post needs to use extra speed early or else risks the chance of being under 'heavy cover' - a 3,4,or 5 wide wall in front of them

the outside posts with long run to turn can move over at their pleasure and still be outside of others

the outside posts with short run to turn needs to use extra speed early or risk being very wide and / or behind a wall of horses

usually (but not always) the horses do not have periods during the race to slow down and relax, but are running closer to as fast as they can so 'extra speed early' has big impact at end of race

racing 'under cover' frequently results in blocked / trapped with no where to go when they want to

This is one of the most clearly stated and insightful posts I've read on here. Thanks