Malibu 2017

[Tom]

:2::4::3::1:

I like the :2:at 17-1

Boxing :1::2::3::4: at these odds

[AxleLode]

Very nice call:jump:

[PressThePace]

Good call Tom. Thought the :2: may slip by in the stretch. Nice exacta, still.

[RunForTheRoses]

Nice hit! Paid a little light but what can you do. SA is definitely more California centric than Del Mar was.

[GMB@BP]

Nice hit! Paid a little light but what can you do. SA is definitely more California centric than Del Mar was.

I definitely thought it was an inside day.

[Tom]

The :2: looked very good in my free Thorograph sheets of the day.
The :1: came right from TF aka CJ.

I always say, if you can't be good, have good friends! :D

[upthecreek]

Now, the big numbers. Last year, Santa Anita had an on-track attendance of 46,514, while this year it was 40,023. That’s a decrease of about 14%. All in all, not too bad considering last year’s was on a Monday and this year’s a Tuesday. Generally, the best days for a weekday opening are Monday and Friday. So, you can figure out what the bad days are.

The on-track handle increased 7.3% from $3,077,017 to $3,301,104. The total handle went up 3.2% from $16,735,322 to $17,279,161.

[GMB@BP]

Now, the big numbers. Last year, Santa Anita had an on-track attendance of 46,514, while this year it was 40,023. That’s a decrease of about 14%. All in all, not too bad considering last year’s was on a Monday and this year’s a Tuesday. Generally, the best days for a weekday opening are Monday and Friday. So, you can figure out what the bad days are.

The on-track handle increased 7.3% from $3,077,017 to $3,301,104. The total handle went up 3.2% from $16,735,322 to $17,279,161.

Per Ocrunk on Twitter they were down significantly from last year, though I suspect as you pointed out the days had a lot to do with it.

Handle for yesterday's opening day SA card down 5.3% (-$847K) on 2 fewer betting interests. Per interest down 2.9% (-$5.4K).

[letswastemoney]

It was weird to read any tweet suggesting the Malibu pace was going to be fast.

Even without reading the Pace Projector, I could see on BRIS City of Light would have things to himself. I only questioned whether he had enough class.

[classhandicapper]

It was weird to read any tweet suggesting the Malibu pace was going to be fast.

Even without reading the Pace Projector, I could see on BRIS City of Light would have things to himself. I only questioned whether he had enough class.

That was my issue also.

I thought it was clear both by the pace figures and race flow he was better than Dabster in that last allowance race and had a chance to get loose yesterday, but I wasn't sure if he was good enough in that spot. The horses I thought were better than him figured to be disadvantaged by the pace and in Pavel's case I had no idea how he was going to run anyway. There was no one really screaming at me.

I have to review the card, but it's also possible inside speed had an advantage and helped him a bit. 3 of the 5 dirt races went w2w, none were favorites, a 20-1 inside speed lasted for 3rd. Unique Bella was wide most of the way, but she had a contested pace in front of her and she's Unique Bella.

[cj]

That was my issue also.

I thought it was clear both by the pace figures and race flow he was better than Dabster in that last allowance race and had a chance to get loose yesterday, but I wasn't sure if he was good enough in that spot. The horses I thought were better than him figured to be disadvantaged by the pace and in Pavel's case I had no idea how he was going to run anyway. There was no one really screaming at me.

I have to review the card, but it's also possible inside speed had an advantage and helped him a bit. 3 of the 5 dirt races went w2w, none were favorites, a 20-1 inside speed lasted for 3rd. Unique Bella was wide most of the way, but she had a contested pace in front of her and she's Unique Bella.

This is what makes bias tough. 3 of 5.won on lead, but two walked up front.... one expectedly. I'd even argue the 3rd was expected despite the 7-1 odds.

[cj]

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/status/946282073928724480

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/status/946283109200351232

[classhandicapper]

This is what makes bias tough. 3 of 5.won on lead, but two walked up front.... one expectedly. I'd even argue the 3rd was expected despite the 7-1 odds.

Agree 100%.

It's tough enough when the sample is only 5 races, but it's even tougher when there are complications to how the races were run. My best guess is that there was a mild inside speed bias. It wasn't dictating results, but it was preferable. Good trips don't guarantee wins. That's what I'll probably put in my notes until I see how some of these horses come back, but I still haven't watched all the races carefully.

[GMB@BP]

This is what makes bias tough. 3 of 5.won on lead, but two walked up front.... one expectedly. I'd even argue the 3rd was expected despite the 7-1 odds.

It wasnt the winners who got me to that point, but they didnt hurt.

Using Mike Maloney's methodology I would say it was a solid R1 bias.

[cj]

It wasnt the winners who got me to that point, but they didnt hurt.

Using Mike Maloney's methodology I would say it was a solid R1 bias.

Possible, but as you know we don't do inside / outside biases. I definitely don't think it was a speed bias.

[classhandicapper]

I just watched the replays.

I'm calling it GR/S. That's saying I'd rather be inside than outside and I'd rather have inside speed than trying to close inside - relative to the typical dirt track on an average day. A rating of GR+/S+ would indicate it was so strong it was dictating the results.

So what I am saying is that if you were clearly best, you could overcome the bias, but if two horses were similar, the bias would probably swing it towards the rail and/or speed.

This is my note:

Dirt - GR/S (inside and especially inside speed did best, but sample only 5 and a couple of speed horses got loose. Review as horses come back)

[cj]

I just watched the replays.

I'm calling it GR/S. That's saying I'd rather be inside than outside and I'd rather have inside speed than trying to close inside - relative to the typical dirt track on an average day. A rating of GR+/S+ would indicate it was so strong it was dictating the results.

So what I am saying is that if you were clearly best, you could overcome the bias, but if two horses were similar, the bias would probably swing it towards the rail and/or speed.

This is my note:

Dirt - GR/S (inside and especially inside speed did best, but sample only 5 and a couple of speed horses got loose. Review as horses come back)

I see where you are coming from, but for me that is a fair track. Speed and saving ground should be an advantage on a fair track.

[classhandicapper]

I see where you are coming from, but for me that is a fair track. Speed and saving ground should be an advantage on a fair track.

It's tough communicate meaning.

It will also be tough to determine what happened after the fact because if some of the horses that showed speed on the rail disappoint next time it won't be clear how much had to do with a change in pace scenario and how much had to do with the rail path being best that day but neutral next time. Your conclusion will be based on what you thought of the races and day to begin with.

I'm going to be downgrading most of the inside speeds with the possible exception of Paradise Woods. She took a lot of pressure in a race I expected to be hot and raced outside for a portion of the race. I'll be upgrading Princess Karen a bit because she dueled outside Paradise Woods. Unique Bella is probably more neutral for me. She got a better trip than Princess Karen because she was just off the heat, but she was close and widest of all.

[airford1]

Now, the big numbers. Last year, Santa Anita had an on-track attendance of 46,514, while this year it was 40,023. That’s a decrease of about 14%. All in all, not too bad considering last year’s was on a Monday and this year’s a Tuesday. Generally, the best days for a weekday opening are Monday and Friday. So, you can figure out what the bad days are.

The on-track handle increased 7.3% from $3,077,017 to $3,301,104. The total handle went up 3.2% from $16,735,322 to $17,279,161.

Here goes the great debate. I was out a Santa Anita and there was NO WAY they had 40,000 people there. The Grandstands were only 30% full and the infield ( Which had a crowd) wasn't near packed like a 40,000 crowd would be.

Typical to the way Santa Anita does business these days, they had a crowd that doesn't come out often and they charged 8 dollars a beer and 6 dollars for a crappy hot dog. What really hurt is that you had to wait in a line for 40 minutes to get it. Same was true for the amount of teller windows that were open and the patrons were crying standing in the Sun for 40 minute to make wager. Missed opportunity for new players missed again.

[upthecreek]

It was apparent that it was a good crowd, but there was one glaring issue: people had trouble getting bets in, not just because there weren’t enough tellers, but that one couldn’t utilize voucher machines because they weren’t working in multiple locations. I tried five different machines and used good, clean bills, and they were rejected. These were in the grandstand, the clubhouse, and the infield.

“When I decided to bet via teller, I was shut out, which is probably one of the most unpleasant experiences at a race track. I’m sure many others had the same experience.

“If Santa Anita wants new customers, it cannot let that kind of experience be the norm. Unfortunately, I fear the damage has been done. I will continue to attend, albeit less often, but I doubt there will be many new faces.
The new management has massive improvements ahead of them still. I witnessed countless blunders on part of the employees and management. To start, upon entering the parking area there were lines (six to my count) of cars merging into three different pay booths.

“One poor employee was trying to block the wide-open gap to the right of these booths in which cars were driving in for free. He then proceeded to hand select cars to go through (all of which appeared to be cars of higher luxury). After seeing this, multiple cars drove through and paid nothing.

“After parking you proceed to the massive lines just to enter. Now this is a very simple process and lines should be short. The problem is not all the booths are open. This is the exact same case when you get inside of the track. I can not even imagine how many thousands of dollars extra could be in the wagering pool each race if not for the simple fact that many, many guests are unable to place a wager since the lines take quite some time to move through.

“I normally place bets from my CPU to avoid the lines and was incapable of doing so due to poor internet service on such busy days. I saw lines for sandwiches and beer that were literally 30-40 people long.

“I am an avid horseplayer and racing fan who calls Santa Anita his home track. I was absolutely embarrassed and angered by the Santa Anita opener. If I had never been to the race track before I would definitely not return after witnessing such atrocities. I love the sport and the track but unfortunately it still has a very long road ahead to reach the glory it previous acquired.”

[cj]

How do you get shut out when they were running WAY behind schedule?

[airford1]

How do you get shut out when they were running WAY behind schedule?

The lines were that long and the players were inexperienced which made each transaction longer.

The cars that were waved in had valid passes I'm sure. Not many owners are driving a Honda Civic.

Still find it comical that they keep adding wagers to totally confuse the new comers.