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View Full Version : Odds changes during races WHAT A JOKE


molson721
12-22-2017, 10:57 PM
Racing continues to ignore YET ANOTHER OF MANY problems they have been ignoring for DECADES! Another race where I placed a substantial win bet on a horse that was 11-1 when loading, 7-1 after the break and turned for home at 4-1. I am done wagering ON ALL TRACKS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT! Problems like this and SO MANY OTHERS THAT ARE IGNORED BY RACE TRACKS ARE ANOTHER REASON WHY WE NEED 1 HEAD OF ALL RACING.
Now I know why I have wagered less and less over the last 3 years. Maybe I should go to a casino! From what I hear, they treat the customer better than horse racing does. Then again, when did racing ever give a s*** about the customer. I will never try to get anybody interested in this sport.

Hey you racing morons at the top??? Keep kissing the ass of the wealthy like you did at the Del Mar Breeders Cup and listening to morons like Bobby Flay who has led and supported the price increases for food, parking and entrance fees to the race tracks of New York. The blue collar bettor is your bread and butter yet YOU CONTINUE TO TREAT US LIKE GARBAGE. My new years resolution is to cut my betting in half yet again until I see positive changes but i won't hold my breath. I'm in my 30's and if racing doesn't listen to my demographic, racing will be gone by 2030 and to be honest, I won't give a s***!

Augenj
12-22-2017, 11:12 PM
I don't disagree with anything you said and I don't know what track you bet but... is there a chance your "substantial" win bet affected the odds? I'm thinking back many years to a quarter horse race at Los Alamitos when I bet $200 to win on a horse at 8/1 and he dropped to 2/1 at the start.

JustRalph
12-22-2017, 11:25 PM
I believe itís been mentioned here multiple times that "blue collar" types are not the sports bread and butter

Fager Fan
12-23-2017, 12:28 AM
Would it make a difference to you if the odds changed after you bet, regardless of whether it's during the running or in a 2 minute cutoff? So how does racing stop the odds from changing from the last minute betting?

cj
12-23-2017, 02:00 AM
Would it make a difference to you if the odds changed after you bet, regardless of whether it's during the running or in a 2 minute cutoff? So how does racing stop the odds from changing from the last minute betting?

Yes, there would still be odds changes. What there wouldn't be was any question that money is not coming in after the bell. You can't stop the odds changing after the pools close. You can stop the possibility of betting after the gate opens and the perception that it can happen.

VigorsTheGrey
12-23-2017, 02:30 AM
How is the betting exchange in New Jersey able to pull off in-race betting, even during the stretch run...?

How can the computer networks process the bets in so short a time when most video feeds have delays built into them.?

Fager Fan
12-23-2017, 09:32 AM
Yes, there would still be odds changes. What there wouldn't be was any question that money is not coming in after the bell. You can't stop the odds changing after the pools close. You can stop the possibility of betting after the gate opens and the perception that it can happen.

Right, but it sounds like his complaint is that the odds dropped after he bet.

I understand the perception problem with odds dropping during the running, but I've never heard a call for betting to close 1 minute prior. Maybe I've missed it.

dilanesp
12-23-2017, 10:21 AM
Yes, there would still be odds changes. What there wouldn't be was any question that money is not coming in after the bell. You can't stop the odds changing after the pools close. You can stop the possibility of betting after the gate opens and the perception that it can happen.

+1

Tom
12-23-2017, 10:33 AM
Steve Byk has addressed this many times - something the trak totally ignore.
Like their "timing" systems (:pound:), the tote systems are antiquated. X,Y and Z have to occur before the odds are updated.

The tracks have money to waste on 5 horse stakes races but not a dime to address the integrity of the game, which has very little imho. Customer is foreign word to the racing pea brains.

Fager Fan
12-23-2017, 10:47 AM
He's complained about it many times? That's great, but what's the solution? The only one I know of is to stop wagering 1 minute or so before post. Is that what you all want, and if so, why don't you publicly call for that?

Tom
12-23-2017, 10:54 AM
Because racing doesn't give a crap what we want or think.
Those whores at GP would be running the race at midnight if they thought there was sawbuck left out there.

Byk was not complaining, he was explaining why it happens.

Fager Fan
12-23-2017, 12:21 PM
Because racing doesn't give a crap what we want or think.
Those whores at GP would be running the race at midnight if they thought there was sawbuck left out there.

Byk was not complaining, he was explaining why it happens.

As if an explanation helps solve your problem? I'm asking you all what you think the answer is. Do you want to cut it off a minute prior to post? Or do you want to be able to bet right up to the gate opening? What is your answer to solve the problem ? I have a sneaking suspicion that you all will fuss about a cut off prior to post, leaving no solution that will satisfy you.

Tom
12-23-2017, 12:35 PM
I would like them fix the tote system and also stop betting 1 minute before post time. It will never happen - customers do not matter in horse racing.

lamboguy
12-23-2017, 01:04 PM
I would like them fix the tote system and also stop betting 1 minute before post time. It will never happen - customers do not matter in horse racing.
truer words have never been spoken


merry christmas

onefast99
12-23-2017, 01:17 PM
How is the betting exchange in New Jersey able to pull off in-race betting, even during the stretch run...?

How can the computer networks process the bets in so short a time when most video feeds have delays built into them.?
The "exchange" system is a separate system from the pari-mutuel system. The "exchange" system is based on layers and backers, the layer is the one who believes the event will not happen(bet against) while the backer believes the event will happen(bet for). I have played the exchange about 8 times now each and every time it becomes easier. You are betting as the race is in progress
The odds are about 20% better for the "exchange" many of the times than the pari-mutuels. "Exchange" has a takeout of only 12% as well.

VigorsTheGrey
12-23-2017, 01:39 PM
The "exchange" system is a separate system from the pari-mutuel system. The "exchange" system is based on layers and backers, the layer is the one who believes the event will not happen(bet against) while the backer believes the event will happen(bet for). I have played the exchange about 8 times now each and every time it becomes easier. You are betting as the race is in progress
The odds are about 20% better for the "exchange" many of the times than the pari-mutuels. "Exchange" has a takeout of only 12% as well.

Thanks, yes...the exchange is a different system...I was just wondering how the timing of betting on horses running down the stretch works in real time...

Now if I was at the track, what, do I make the wager when I see my horse 3 lengths ahead and drawing away...? Sounds pretty good to me, but by then have all the layers jumped ship and are now on board with my horse also so we all get 2/5 odds..

But mainly I was interested in what hardware and connections people use to get in these last second bets...some of the tv feeds that I see have 1 minute or more delays in broadcast time so by the time you see the horses in the stretch the race is already over in reality, so how can they still allow betting to occur...

onefast99
12-23-2017, 02:01 PM
Thanks, yes...the exchange is a different system...I was just wondering how the timing of betting on horses running down the stretch works in real time...

Now if I was at the track, what, do I make the wager when I see my horse 3 lengths ahead and drawing away...? Sounds pretty good to me, but by then have all the layers jumped ship and are now on board with my horse also so we all get 2/5 odds..

But mainly I was interested in what hardware and connections people use to get in these last second bets...some of the tv feeds that I see have 1 minute or more delays in broadcast time so by the time you see the horses in the stretch the race is already over in reality, so how can they still allow betting to occur...If you are in NJ go to 4njbets.com there is a tutorial on this as well on the betfair site. If there is a direct match for your bet it will be placed. I haven't encountered yet where the bet wasn't taken.

JohnGalt1
12-23-2017, 02:39 PM
I would like them fix the tote system and also stop betting 1 minute before post time.

Didn't all tracks do this for awhile after the pick 6 scandal?

cj
12-23-2017, 02:58 PM
Didn't all tracks do this for awhile after the pick 6 scandal?

Some definitely did, not sure if it was all of them. However, foolish bettors complained so much they stopped. We reap what we sow.

dilanesp
12-23-2017, 03:15 PM
Some definitely did, not sure if it was all of them. However, foolish bettors complained so much they stopped. We reap what we sow.

People hate being shut out. I was shut out at Aqueduct yesterday when my voucher was stuck in a machine and it took the guy 5 minutes to get to the machine and fix it. (It saved me money. :) )

castaway01
12-23-2017, 04:51 PM
Thanks, yes...the exchange is a different system...I was just wondering how the timing of betting on horses running down the stretch works in real time...

Now if I was at the track, what, do I make the wager when I see my horse 3 lengths ahead and drawing away...? Sounds pretty good to me, but by then have all the layers jumped ship and are now on board with my horse also so we all get 2/5 odds..

But mainly I was interested in what hardware and connections people use to get in these last second bets...some of the tv feeds that I see have 1 minute or more delays in broadcast time so by the time you see the horses in the stretch the race is already over in reality, so how can they still allow betting to occur...

If you try to bet on a horse with a three-length lead entering the stretch on the NJ exchange, you MIGHT get the bet matched but it will be at 1-100 odds, not 2-5 (the lowest odds are 1.01-1, and that's what a horse with a three-length lead at that point in the race will be at). A few people will lay that because more than 1 out of 100 times a horse with a lead will stop late or something else bizarre will happen. It's really not the lucrative money-making idea it might seem for either side.

I have never seen a TV feed that is 1 minute behind. It might be a few seconds, but I guess that's a chance you take if you want to bet on the exchange. As OneFast said, it's not exactly revolutionary technology---Betfair has done in-race wagering in Europe for years.

cj
12-23-2017, 05:26 PM
People hate being shut out. I was shut out at Aqueduct yesterday when my voucher was stuck in a machine and it took the guy 5 minutes to get to the machine and fix it. (It saved me money. :) )

If the time the pools will close is now known and someone still gets shut out they are not very bright.

Robert Fischer
12-23-2017, 06:02 PM
The hourly workers at Gulfstream Park would never allow this.

molson721
12-23-2017, 07:06 PM
Would it make a difference to you if the odds changed after you bet, regardless of whether it's during the running or in a 2 minute cutoff? So how does racing stop the odds from changing from the last minute betting?
Today's computers can process information almost instantly. They are close to coming up with computer driven driver-less cars. You can place an order on the New York stock exchange or a wager on a race seconds before the race goes off and after you hit send, the order goes through almost instantly. To think there is nothing wrong with this shows age, a lack of today's computer abilities or both. I hope that doesn't come off as an insult because it is not meant to be. Are the people calculating the odds using an abacus?? Its called technology and there is no excuse for this. I would not have wagered what I did if the horse was closer to 4-1 instead of 11-1 at post time. For theodds to change twice during a 5 furlong sprint is ridiculous. It isn't difficult USING MODERN TECHNOLOGY to update the odds every 30 seconds especially close to post time. By the way, significant for me is a $50(not enough to cause the drop in odds) win bet instead of the usual $10-15 plus a few smaller exotics and my win bet was placed after the first horse was loaded. I wager the same amount every day and try to be disciplined in my betting but sometimes when I think I am getting a great price, I go against what I usually wager so I am not a big fish but the blue collar guy racing doesn't really care about.

PaceAdvantage
12-23-2017, 08:52 PM
It's not a case of updating the odds...it's a case of having all these simulcast sites sending in their wagers to the host track instantly...something that doesn't happen currently.

The host track can't update the odds if it doesn't have accurate pool info. And it can't have accurate pool info until all the money is in.

Therein lies the problem.

Fager Fan
12-23-2017, 09:17 PM
Today's computers can process information almost instantly. They are close to coming up with computer driven driver-less cars. You can place an order on the New York stock exchange or a wager on a race seconds before the race goes off and after you hit send, the order goes through almost instantly. To think there is nothing wrong with this shows age, a lack of today's computer abilities or both. I hope that doesn't come off as an insult because it is not meant to be. Are the people calculating the odds using an abacus?? Its called technology and there is no excuse for this. I would not have wagered what I did if the horse was closer to 4-1 instead of 11-1 at post time. For theodds to change twice during a 5 furlong sprint is ridiculous. It isn't difficult USING MODERN TECHNOLOGY to update the odds every 30 seconds especially close to post time. By the way, significant for me is a $50(not enough to cause the drop in odds) win bet instead of the usual $10-15 plus a few smaller exotics and my win bet was placed after the first horse was loaded. I wager the same amount every day and try to be disciplined in my betting but sometimes when I think I am getting a great price, I go against what I usually wager so I am not a big fish but the blue collar guy racing doesn't really care about.

Let's assume its instantaneous. Youre still in the same boat, you only learn of it quicker. If you're playing a last second game against the whales, it's tough for you to win.

If I played substantial money in this sport, I'd be demanding equal treatment for all bettors. It seems to me that the rebates, and huge rebates to whales,takes more money from smart players than anything else.

MonmouthParkJoe
12-23-2017, 09:50 PM
Given that 40% of total pools come in during the last mtp, I cant see anyone stopping a minute before the race and closing the pools.

Bot wagering isnt as simple as saying computers process quickly. Its a bit more complex that that, but they have access to the pools allowing them to place wagers quickly.

It was already mentioned here ,but think of the entire US tote scenario similar to the way airlines are set up. Certain ones have hubs in different areas of the country and always fly in and out even if it makes trips longer. Tote is similar, and having to have double hops before being pulled into the pools can create shifts in the end.

What track were you wagering on?

cj
12-23-2017, 09:57 PM
Given that 40% of total pools come in during the last mtp, I cant see anyone stopping a minute before the race and closing the pools.



You don't think people would adjust and realize 1 MTP was actually 1 MTP? They'd still bet 40% in the last minute, they'd just actually know when the 1 MTP is.

Whosonfirst
12-23-2017, 09:58 PM
It's not a case of updating the odds...it's a case of having all these simulcast sites sending in their wagers to the host track instantly...something that doesn't happen currently.

The host track can't update the odds if it doesn't have accurate pool info. And it can't have accurate pool info until all the money is in.

Therein lies the problem.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
A track insider went over this in some detail a while back, maybe six months ago. My biggest problem has never been the shifting odds, but getting my horse across the finish line first.

therussmeister
12-23-2017, 11:02 PM
You don't think people would adjust and realize 1 MTP was actually 1 MTP? They'd still bet 40% in the last minute, they'd just actually know when the 1 MTP is.

Just like people betting Gulfstream know that 0 mtp = 5 mtp, or 8 mtp if it is the start of the rainbow 6.

Fox
12-24-2017, 12:57 AM
Racing continues to ignore YET ANOTHER OF MANY problems they have been ignoring for DECADES! Another race where I placed a substantial win bet on a horse that was 11-1 when loading, 7-1 after the break and turned for home at 4-1. I am done wagering ON ALL TRACKS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT! Problems like this and SO MANY OTHERS THAT ARE IGNORED BY RACE TRACKS ARE ANOTHER REASON WHY WE NEED 1 HEAD OF ALL RACING.
Now I know why I have wagered less and less over the last 3 years. Maybe I should go to a casino! From what I hear, they treat the customer better than horse racing does. Then again, when did racing ever give a s*** about the customer. I will never try to get anybody interested in this sport.

Hey you racing morons at the top??? Keep kissing the ass of the wealthy like you did at the Del Mar Breeders Cup and listening to morons like Bobby Flay who has led and supported the price increases for food, parking and entrance fees to the race tracks of New York. The blue collar bettor is your bread and butter yet YOU CONTINUE TO TREAT US LIKE GARBAGE. My new years resolution is to cut my betting in half yet again until I see positive changes but i won't hold my breath. I'm in my 30's and if racing doesn't listen to my demographic, racing will be gone by 2030 and to be honest, I won't give a s***!

Any reason you haven't identified the park and race that upset you? I'd like to know which one it was. Thx.

dilanesp
12-24-2017, 01:39 AM
You don't think people would adjust and realize 1 MTP was actually 1 MTP? They'd still bet 40% in the last minute, they'd just actually know when the 1 MTP is.

Actually, when I started playing the horses, NYRA's post times were to the minute accurate. (Marshall Cassidy used to say "it is NOW post time!" during the middle of the load usually.) And NYRA had plenty of handle.

TonyK@HSH
12-24-2017, 02:36 AM
Some definitely did, not sure if it was all of them. However, foolish bettors complained so much they stopped. We reap what we sow.

I believe it was CD that made a valiant attempt to close betting at post time. Not only did customers complain about being shut out, but the handle was noticeably impacted. Hard to ask a business to take steps that will reduce revenues.

cj
12-24-2017, 02:40 AM
Actually, when I started playing the horses, NYRA's post times were to the minute accurate. (Marshall Cassidy used to say "it is NOW post time!" during the middle of the load usually.) And NYRA had plenty of handle.

They still are, but the only difference now is they stay open if there is an issue with a horse or with the load. But NYRA keeps it to a minimum. People adapt to the rules in place.

cj
12-24-2017, 02:41 AM
I believe it was CD that made a valiant attempt to close betting at post time. Not only did customers complain about being shut out, but the handle was noticeably impacted. Hard to ask a business to take steps that will reduce revenues.

Would have been short term in my opinion. Could be people also weren't betting because, you know, the pools had just been exposed as hackable.

JohnGalt1
12-24-2017, 11:47 AM
Instead of shutting off the tote at the start of the race, shut off betting when the first horse is loaded and the gate is shut.

Dave Schwartz
12-24-2017, 11:58 AM
Instead of shutting off the tote at the start of the race, shut off betting when the first horse is loaded and the gate is shut.

Odds would still be changing with that arrangement but it is a step in the right direction. It would not change the impact, but would prevent late changes after the gate opened as well as the perception of cheating in every race.

biggestal99
12-24-2017, 12:26 PM
How is the betting exchange in New Jersey able to pull off in-race betting, even during the stretch run...?

How can the computer networks process the bets in so short a time when most video feeds have delays built into them.?

Mostly bot betting.

The numbers change quickly.

Think long: think wrong.

I have a lot of fun in running betting.

I am mostly laying confirmed quitters.

I have a price in mind I post it at just after the start most of the time it is matched by a bot.

Love stealing money from the bots.

Bots is stupid. They donít know quitters.

Allan

biggestal99
12-24-2017, 12:31 PM
This is why small players need the x, betting at fixed odds is just great.

Never, ever, worry about odds dropping again for the rest of my life.

My advice is to move to jersey and put all this odds dropping crap to bed.

Itís a tremendous way of wagering.

Allan

biggestal99
12-24-2017, 12:45 PM
The "exchange" system is a separate system from the pari-mutuel system. The "exchange" system is based on layers and backers, the layer is the one who believes the event will not happen(bet against) while the backer believes the event will happen(bet for). I have played the exchange about 8 times now each and every time it becomes easier. You are betting as the race is in progress
The odds are about 20% better for the "exchange" many of the times than the pari-mutuels. "Exchange" has a takeout of only 12% as well.

Have you checked out the value review.

Here are some of the top ones. Way more than 20%

1st race at remington Park December 11.

Winner goes off at 43-1, great right. Lol

Exchange pays off at 189-1

Allan

GMB@BP
12-24-2017, 01:02 PM
I am just not sure the younger more educated gambler, with many more options about to open up, is going to sit for a model where there is such fluctuation in the odds they are getting on the play.

I think a Betfair style exchange is much more friendly to a serious player.

thaskalos
12-24-2017, 02:23 PM
Put an end to computer-robotic wagering...and this odds-dropping problem is over, IMO. These "bigshots" are already getting rebated to the hilt...why should they also be allowed to place thousands of different wagers at a click of a button at the very end of the betting period?

They say that 20% of the wagering pool comes from computer-robotic wagering; should the 20% gain prominence over the other 80%?

Mc990
12-25-2017, 10:52 AM
Most of the odds changes are just corrections on the win pool inefficiencies... if more bettors referenced the double prices to ascertain probable "off odds", there would be a whole lot less complaining.

dilanesp
12-25-2017, 11:34 AM
Put an end to computer-robotic wagering...and this odds-dropping problem is over, IMO. These "bigshots" are already getting rebated to the hilt...why should they also be allowed to place thousands of different wagers at a click of a button at the very end of the betting period?

They say that 20% of the wagering pool comes from computer-robotic wagering; should the 20% gain prominence over the other 80%?

One idea I have toyed with is shutting off remote betting 1 minute before post but allowing onsite betting, with perhaps a dollar limit, until the gates open.

That would reward people who attend the races live. But current business models at many tracks are so reliant on remote handle that it probably wouldn't work.

dilanesp
12-25-2017, 11:36 AM
Most of the odds changes are just corrections on the win pool inefficiencies... if more bettors referenced the double prices to ascertain probable "off odds", there would be a whole lot less complaining.

I am not certain this is true writ large, but I certainly have seen instances where the double and exacta probables looked closer to what the final odds would be.

thaskalos
12-25-2017, 12:11 PM
Most of the odds changes are just corrections on the win pool inefficiencies... if more bettors referenced the double prices to ascertain probable "off odds", there would be a whole lot less complaining.

The daily-double pools being much smaller than the win pools...how can they be relied upon to be more "predictive" in the forecasting of the "real" win-odds?

Mc990
12-25-2017, 12:30 PM
The daily-double pools being much smaller than the win pools...how can they be relied upon to be more "predictive" in the forecasting of the "real" win-odds?

The win odds on a given horse are mostly commensurate in the multis... 10-15 years ago, maybe not so much. Yes, I understand that there will be more anomalies with smaller pools but if you calculate probable win odds from the doubles, the last second odds drops will be less surprising than just basing it on the board with "X" minutes to post...

Again, it's by no means an exact science but I'd be willing to bet that 90% of the time when someone complains about a drop, it is the price merely coming into line with the double will pays

thaskalos
12-25-2017, 12:34 PM
The win odds on a given horse are mostly commensurate in the multis... 10-15 years ago, maybe not so much. Yes, I understand that there will be more anomalies with smaller pools but if you calculate probable win odds from the doubles, the last second odds drops will be less surprising than just basing it on the board with "X" minutes to post...

Again, it's by no means an exact science but I'd be willing to bet that 90% of the time when someone complains about a drop, it is the price merely coming into line with the double will pays

And I'd be willing to TAKE that bet.

VigorsTheGrey
12-25-2017, 12:49 PM
What percentage of pools are affected by computer-driven arbitrage wagering...? Might these robotic operations be the most likely source of the majority of the last second swings in odds...?

Also, I wonder how deeply affected BetFair is by massive arbitrage wagering schemes...seems like this venue might be more susceptible to these types of robotic operations...

Cholly
12-25-2017, 01:38 PM
The win odds on a given horse are mostly commensurate in the multis... 10-15 years ago, maybe not so much. Yes, I understand that there will be more anomalies with smaller pools but if you calculate probable win odds from the doubles, the last second odds drops will be less surprising than just basing it on the board with "X" minutes to post...

Again, it's by no means an exact science but I'd be willing to bet that 90% of the time when someone complains about a drop, it is the price merely coming into line with the double will pays

This works best if you use the will-pays from the favorite in the previous race; as the odds from the winner in the previous race increase, the predictability becomes less-so.

I only play NYRA, so can't comment on how this works elsewhere. 90%? Maybe a little high. 75%? For sure. When the odds don't move in the direction of the double will-pays, that also tells you something...stable betting or betting from someone who knows something, or THINKS they know something.

Redboard
12-25-2017, 01:47 PM
I understand that odds can change after I make a bet, but I don't understand why the odds are allowed to change after the gate opens. There should be a national law that criminalizes that. Now if the track has to wait one minute for that to happen or 5 minutes, or 10 minutes, so be it. If they open the gate before all bet are calculated, then it comes out of the tracks pocket. That would stop this crap!

The main thing that needs to be stopped here, if a speed horse gets off to a bad start, he's finished and got no shot, in most cases. Being able to past post even 20 seconds is huge. There're been a few guys here in the past bragging about doing this.

biggestal99
12-26-2017, 09:47 AM
Many Many times I see the favorite trading on Betfair exchange at 2.50 (3-2) yet the horse is sitting at 2-1 on the tote. I laugh at the naivety of the bettors who think they are going to get 2-1 on the horse. Always gets bet down like 100% of the time.

Betfair exchange odds are much more accurate indication of the off odds 2 MTP.

Allan

biggestal99
12-26-2017, 03:41 PM
Many Many times I see the favorite trading on Betfair exchange at 2.50 (3-2) yet the horse is sitting at 2-1 on the tote. I laugh at the naivety of the bettors who think they are going to get 2-1 on the horse. Always gets bet down like 100% of the time.

Betfair exchange odds are much more accurate indication of the off odds 2 MTP.

Allan
Okay. the acid test.

1st at Sunland 12/26/2017 Two minutes to post

5 horses. The 1 horse was scratched

Betfair odds

2---38
3---6
4---4
5---5-2
6---9-5

Tote odds

2---5
3---5-2
4---2
5---3
6---3

and the off odds

2--25
3--5-2
4--2
5--3
8--8-5

Allan

GMB@BP
12-26-2017, 04:48 PM
Okay. the acid test.

1st at Sunland 12/26/2017 Two minutes to post

5 horses. The 1 horse was scratched

Betfair odds

2---38
3---6
4---4
5---5-2
6---9-5

Tote odds

2---5
3---5-2
4---2
5---3
6---3

and the off odds

2--25
3--5-2
4--2
5--3
8--8-5

Allan

and they all look liked great values based on that

lamboguy
12-26-2017, 05:03 PM
And I'd be willing to TAKE that bet.
i want half your bet!

Tom
12-26-2017, 05:28 PM
i want half your bet!

But two minutes after you two make that bet, it drops from 90% to 60%! :lol:

thespaah
12-26-2017, 09:12 PM
How is the betting exchange in New Jersey able to pull off in-race betting, even during the stretch run...?

How can the computer networks process the bets in so short a time when most video feeds have delays built into them.?

The Exchange wagers are not placed using the track and satellite wagering servers.
For normal PM wagering there are several betting outlets. All go to a hub. The hub then sends the bets to the host track. The host track mutuel computers then must reconcile the wagers. Only then are the odds, pool totals displayed on the infield tote and the monitors through out the respective plant.
At least in reading info on here, this is my understanding of how the wagers are processed.

thespaah
12-26-2017, 09:17 PM
Right, but it sounds like his complaint is that the odds dropped after he bet.

I understand the perception problem with odds dropping during the running, but I've never heard a call for betting to close 1 minute prior. Maybe I've missed it.

Long time ago, NYRA closed betting when the display indicating "Minutes to Post reached "0".
The horses may have not started loading yet. It didn't matter.
Also, in those days. There were signs everywhere that clearly stated "once the patron leaves the betting window, all bets are final".
Today, on line bettors can cancel wagers up to the bell. And in turn bet the bell.
That huge volume of wagers made up to the last possible moment take time to be processed. Hence the time lag in displaying the odds and pool totals ot the public.

thespaah
12-26-2017, 09:22 PM
Today's computers can process information almost instantly. They are close to coming up with computer driven driver-less cars. You can place an order on the New York stock exchange or a wager on a race seconds before the race goes off and after you hit send, the order goes through almost instantly. To think there is nothing wrong with this shows age, a lack of today's computer abilities or both. I hope that doesn't come off as an insult because it is not meant to be. Are the people calculating the odds using an abacus?? Its called technology and there is no excuse for this. I would not have wagered what I did if the horse was closer to 4-1 instead of 11-1 at post time. For theodds to change twice during a 5 furlong sprint is ridiculous. It isn't difficult USING MODERN TECHNOLOGY to update the odds every 30 seconds especially close to post time. By the way, significant for me is a $50(not enough to cause the drop in odds) win bet instead of the usual $10-15 plus a few smaller exotics and my win bet was placed after the first horse was loaded. I wager the same amount every day and try to be disciplined in my betting but sometimes when I think I am getting a great price, I go against what I usually wager so I am not a big fish but the blue collar guy racing doesn't really care about.

Great idea. Costs A LOT of money for the computer systems. Also, tons of money would have to be spent creating a fiber optic cable backbone.
The financial exchanges can afford the technology.
My guess is this technology is not in the budgets of most race tracks.

thespaah
12-26-2017, 09:27 PM
Let's assume its instantaneous. Youre still in the same boat, you only learn of it quicker. If you're playing a last second game against the whales, it's tough for you to win.

If I played substantial money in this sport, I'd be demanding equal treatment for all bettors. It seems to me that the rebates, and huge rebates to whales,takes more money from smart players than anything else.

My perception is A) the whales expect preferential treatment.
B) If the perks stopped, the whales would find something else on which to bet their money.
If the whales pull their money from US based horse racing, the tracks all close. Period.

thespaah
12-26-2017, 09:33 PM
Put an end to computer-robotic wagering...and this odds-dropping problem is over, IMO. These "bigshots" are already getting rebated to the hilt...why should they also be allowed to place thousands of different wagers at a click of a button at the very end of the betting period?

They say that 20% of the wagering pool comes from computer-robotic wagering; should the 20% gain prominence over the other 80%?

I would be willing to go out on a limb and say that perhaps 3/4's of the handle is that of the whales.

Lemon Drop Husker
12-26-2017, 09:57 PM
We all know this is happening.

Many of us still play.

And we are still bitching. :cool:

Ian Meyers
12-26-2017, 10:44 PM
I would be willing to go out on a limb and say that perhaps 3/4's of the handle is that of the whales.


You better hope that limb is sturdy. You are way off. Nowhere near that high a %.

cj
12-26-2017, 10:47 PM
Should be interesting what comes of the investigation into the late P4 and P5 payoffs at SA today.

https://twitter.com/BH_JBalan/status/945844550509010944

Ian Meyers
12-26-2017, 10:56 PM
I've posted this many time before over the years but here goes again.

There is no money bet after the bell, other than the occasional issue of a track/pool not closing. I say occasional in that it happens less than 10 or 20 times a year that I've seen and that's with all the races being run in North America.

The phenomenon you see is related to the fact that guest site wagers (simulcast outlets, OTBs, ADWs, etc.) are NOT streamed continuously, they are batched and sent. How often that happens is dependent upon the host track, the host track's toe company, available bandwidth, etc. If you looked at the time stamp of wagers that hit a host pool at the off (and I have) you'd see bets that were made at the guest sites 60-90 seconds before that in many instances. This has gotten better over the years but the NYSE it ain't.

As far as the type of horses that get bet down the most, of course it's the logical contenders. The CAW models are very, very good at predicting the most like winners in each race and typically those are the kind of horses experiencing late odds drops. I don't know how many times someone has told me "I made that horse at MNR, DEL, TuP, etc 3/5 and he was 6/5 at post time so I bet him and he won and paid $3. If YOU can identify him as the most likely winner don't you think the sharps can too?

I'm not saying there's not a lot of problems with the game that needs fixing, but money being wagered after the gate opens isn't one of them.

Ian Meyers
12-26-2017, 11:00 PM
Should be interesting what comes of the investigation into the late P4 and P5 payoffs at SA today.

https://twitter.com/BH_JBalan/status/945844550509010944

I have thought for many years that the vulnerabilities in the scan bets (exploited in the BC Fix Six) have not been completed patched. That is my opinion, and however educated it may be, I do not know that for a fact.

Poindexter
12-26-2017, 11:37 PM
Should be interesting what comes of the investigation into the late P4 and P5 payoffs at SA today.

https://twitter.com/BH_JBalan/status/945844550509010944

What was suspicious about the will pays on the late pick 4/pick 5 at Santa Anita? Most pick 5's were paying about 8 to 11 times what most pick 4's were playing. I must be missing something, but sure not seeing it.

Lemon Drop Husker
12-26-2017, 11:49 PM
What was suspicious about the will pays on the late pick 4/pick 5 at Santa Anita? Most pick 5's were paying about 8 to 11 times what most pick 4's were playing. I must be missing something, but sure not seeing it.

Sooo... Stronach is going to investigate their own?

WTF am I missing here?

thespaah
12-27-2017, 12:49 AM
You better hope that limb is sturdy. You are way off. Nowhere near that high a %.

Ok what's your guess.?
Is it your contention that the handle is driven by the $2.00 to $50 per race bettors?

cj
12-27-2017, 12:57 AM
What was suspicious about the will pays on the late pick 4/pick 5 at Santa Anita? Most pick 5's were paying about 8 to 11 times what most pick 4's were playing. I must be missing something, but sure not seeing it.

They were way too low. It almost assuredly had to do with the late scratch in the last race after the P4/P5 pools were closed.

Ian Meyers
12-27-2017, 01:05 AM
Ok what's your guess.?
Is it your contention that the handle is driven by the $2.00 to $50 per race bettors?

I won't say publicly what I think it is.

I am a consultant to both ADWs and large teams so I have a pretty good idea what's a realistic guess (because no one can say with 100% certainty) but there's no benefit to me discussing it publicly, other than to say 75% is much too high. It's significantly less than 50%.

That's all I'm going to say about it.

outofthebox
12-27-2017, 10:45 AM
They were way too low. It almost assuredly had to do with the late scratch in the last race after the P4/P5 pools were closed.I blame it on TFUS who came a 1/2 length short of sweeping the late pick 4..:)

thespaah
12-27-2017, 11:55 AM
I won't say publicly what I think it is.

I am a consultant to both ADWs and large teams so I have a pretty good idea what's a realistic guess (because no one can say with 100% certainty) but there's no benefit to me discussing it publicly, other than to say 75% is much too high. It's significantly less than 50%.

That's all I'm going to say about it.

Whats the big secret?
See, its this kind of opaqueness in this business that helps create the perception that there is always something to hide.
Now, this is not personal. Take it as you wish.
I cannot understand why anyone with knowledge of a particular subject would quickly respond with "you're wrong, but due to ( fill in the blank) I cannot divulge. Just believe what I tell you".
That does not butter the toast.
Either provide the WHOLE answer, or let it go and don't respond.
Using pure logic here. There are large volume players and wagering syndicates that have been mentioned on this very website that wager millions of dollars per year.
Also, I pay close attention to tote board numbers.
A perfect example of where I get my perception of the whales driving the handle is this.
I'm at a track in NY. Typically the WPS handle DOUBLES or even TRIPLES within one minute to post time. And because many of the large volume players prefer to "hide" their wagers from the public, they are wagering at the last moment of the betting period. "Betting the bell".
So, if the everyday joe is making the handle larger, then why are the lines at the windows not 12 miles long? Or since the number of smaller bets coming in from off site venues required to create such significant numbers are being placed virtually simultaneously, would this not create a significant lag in the collection of data or even crash servers?
I must ask these questions because of the rather cryptic nature of your explanation.

dilanesp
12-27-2017, 12:50 PM
I won't say publicly what I think it is.

I am a consultant to both ADWs and large teams so I have a pretty good idea what's a realistic guess (because no one can say with 100% certainty) but there's no benefit to me discussing it publicly, other than to say 75% is much too high. It's significantly less than 50%.

That's all I'm going to say about it.

That doesn't surprise me. There are plenty of "regular horseplayers" who bet a decent amount but are not whales. Some post on this board.

If it was all whales, online bet shops like tvg and xpressbet wouldn't be successful, because whales go to rebate shops.

Ian Meyers
12-27-2017, 01:50 PM
Whats the big secret?
See, its this kind of opaqueness in this business that helps create the perception that there is always something to hide.
Now, this is not personal. Take it as you wish.
I cannot understand why anyone with knowledge of a particular subject would quickly respond with "you're wrong, but due to ( fill in the blank) I cannot divulge. Just believe what I tell you".
That does not butter the toast.
Either provide the WHOLE answer, or let it go and don't respond.
Using pure logic here. There are large volume players and wagering syndicates that have been mentioned on this very website that wager millions of dollars per year.
Also, I pay close attention to tote board numbers.
A perfect example of where I get my perception of the whales driving the handle is this.
I'm at a track in NY. Typically the WPS handle DOUBLES or even TRIPLES within one minute to post time. And because many of the large volume players prefer to "hide" their wagers from the public, they are wagering at the last moment of the betting period. "Betting the bell".
So, if the everyday joe is making the handle larger, then why are the lines at the windows not 12 miles long? Or since the number of smaller bets coming in from off site venues required to create such significant numbers are being placed virtually simultaneously, would this not create a significant lag in the collection of data or even crash servers?
I must ask these questions because of the rather cryptic nature of your explanation.


1. Others have paid me for those type of insights. It would be unfair to give away that research for free.

2. I never said it is the $2 bettor that is driving handle. It's no secret that it's not. Many causal fans have been driven out of the game. That's a problem now and will be a bigger problem going forward. I do believe that the change related to W2Gs is or should be a big positive influence to the casual player.

3. I'm not disputing a large % of CAW handle is made very late in the wagering cycle. It's not all of it though, despite what you may have heard. I also believe it's very important to differentiate wagers made late but before the gates open and those wagers that are past-posted. There are more than a few on this board (and others) that do not make that distinction and claim that there is a great deal of handle being past-posted. That is simply not the case.

4. As far as lines at the windows, 90% of handle now comes in from off-site. That's across all tracks. When you factor in higher on-track handle at SAR, KEE, DMR,etc it's probably like 91-92% for other tracks. Hence, no long lines at the windows. That time has come and gone.

5. I rarely post these days. Typically when I do it's to correct egregious misinformation. This game has enough problems. There's no reason for people to distort the truth to make it seem worse than it is. Again that's nothing personal. I'm sure you believe CAW handle is 3/4 of the total. Maybe you've read that here or elsewhere in cyberspace. I just didn't want anyone else seeing that figure and believing it too, or worse yet spreading that. CAW teams are not betting $7 billion a year. If there were a dozen large teams they'd each be betting on average $600 million a year. Is that what people really think? I can tell you there are zero teams betting $600mm a year into our pools let alone a dozen of them.

alydar
12-27-2017, 02:07 PM
I think that Ian is spot on regarding the whole past post issue. I am convinced that there are very few instances where betting has taken place after the gates have opened. It does happen, but it is very unusual due to some malfunction, and not some common conspiracy.

I have believed for a long time that betting should be halted at a specific time. There could be a countdown clock that clearly told everyone when betting stops. This would help, but not cure the problem of large odd changes. At least bettors would know what the odds were prior to the start. I know how frustrating it is to see what you thought was a 5/2 bet come down to 3/5. That would still happen, but at least it would be before the race has started, which would at least make it appear more legitimate.

As far as whale betting goes, I think that the real percentage is somewhere between 25 and 30%. That percentage varies by track too.

cj
12-27-2017, 02:40 PM
I don't think there are people betting after the bell, but I'm not convinced people aren't being allowed to cancel after the bell.

lamboguy
12-27-2017, 03:05 PM
there is AFTER THE BELL betting going on for sure in many harness tracks right now in 2017 and probably in 2018. The Red Mile has about 25 customers that only play the bell.`The Red Mile has live video feeds. Dover and Harrington have after the bell betting but only on their own product.

does it happen in Thoroughbreds? probably but i have no idea where it takes place so i am not so sure about it. it does not happen in any large onshore ADW at all. i don't have any idea about the offshore ones.

the only thing i know is that whenever money is on the line, there is always someone there trying to get it. if you know how to call the break, you can't lose.

Fager Fan
12-27-2017, 03:22 PM
I won't say publicly what I think it is.

I am a consultant to both ADWs and large teams so I have a pretty good idea what's a realistic guess (because no one can say with 100% certainty) but there's no benefit to me discussing it publicly, other than to say 75% is much too high. It's significantly less than 50%.

That's all I'm going to say about it.

It's about 15%, and from a shockingly low number of whales.

deelo
12-27-2017, 07:03 PM
Pretty difficult to beat the computer syndicates when my system says i have value at 5/1 0 mtp and he loads at 4/1, enters the stretch at 3/1, and crosses the finish line at 2/1. Getting real difficult unless you only play large pools.

Poindexter
12-27-2017, 07:24 PM
It's about 15%, and from a shockingly low number of whales.

If it is only 15% of mutual handle and the decision makers are letting this sport become practically unbettable to many to cater to a small group of bettors contiributing only 15% of the pools, then words cannot describe how empty headed the decision makers of this sport are and have been.

If the figure is indeed only 15%, they could eliminate rebates today and have a more successful sport in 2 years without even lowering takeout.

The figure has to be at least 30% and likely closer to 40%.

AltonKelsey
12-27-2017, 07:41 PM
If it is only 15% of mutual handle and the decision makers are letting this sport become practically unbettable to many to cater to a small group of bettors contiributing only 15% of the pools, then words cannot describe how empty headed the decision makers of this sport are and have been.

If the figure is indeed only 15%, they could eliminate rebates today and have a more successful sport in 2 years without even lowering takeout.

The figure has to be at least 30% and likely closer to 40%.


I doubt it's only 15% . If that were the case, you wouldn't have the big influx of late money in all the pools. The average Joe is not waiting till the last flash to bet.

Not sure its as high as 40% though. My guess, 20-25 at the majors, maybe a bit higher, as they aren't just betting one horse, but spreading it around.

Fager Fan
12-27-2017, 07:58 PM
If it is only 15% of mutual handle and the decision makers are letting this sport become practically unbettable to many to cater to a small group of bettors contiributing only 15% of the pools, then words cannot describe how empty headed the decision makers of this sport are and have been.

If the figure is indeed only 15%, they could eliminate rebates today and have a more successful sport in 2 years without even lowering takeout.

The figure has to be at least 30% and likely closer to 40%.

I'm googling for the article I'd read that said 15-18%, but not found yet. I've found this one that says 20%+.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/high-volume-players/

Poindexter
12-27-2017, 09:07 PM
I'm googling for the article I'd read that said 15-18%, but not found yet. I've found this one that says 20%+.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/high-volume-players/

Very good article you quoted. Especially like this excerpt

The numbers speak for themselves. In 2003, $15.1 billion was wagered on U.S. racing. Twelve years later in 2015, with the major high-volume teams pumping their millions into the pools, handle had fallen to $10.6 billion. And that is despite an infusion into the U.S. betting pools by the computer players that is estimated to be in the area of $2.5 billion annually. It is also important to consider that a track retains a lower commission from a bet from a huge player because of the rebate and other discounts involved than it does off of you and me.


So basically racing decision makers, because of stupidity, have tried catering to a tiny group of whales, who only contribute 20% of the current volume or thereabouts and managed to lose 30% of their handle over 12 years in the process. It has evolved to this at a time when anybody anywhere has a at the palm of their hand a tool to make a bet at any track, any time and anywhere. Should we even factor in the value of the dollar between 2003 and 2015?

Meanwhile, they twiddle their thumbs, horseplayers get more and more frustrated (the point of this thread) and continue dropping out. Those of us iwho continue playing the game have a hard time making any straight bet with any confidence because we just assume that the horse will drop in odds late whether he does or not(I have gotten to the point where if a horse is less than 6-1, I assume that the value that he appear to be as they are loading the gate likely will not remain after off with very few exceptions). IF he wins at an inflated price I pretty much have to deal with it.

You know there actually was a time that you could make a bet on a horse at 5/2 as they were loading the gate and 9/5 was about the lowest you would see in most circumstances(unless the 5/2 was ridiculously inflated). Now horses can go from 5/2 to 6/5 or 6-1 to 3-1 or 2-1 to 7/5 of 6/5 to 3/5 in just about every race. We can't take advantage of the fact that a horse should be 15-1 jumps form 15-1 to 30-1 because the race has already gone off when that odds change occurs. I personally am so close to just reverting to only pick 4's and pick 5's, I cannot tell you. The game is extremely fun when you have some idea of what your odds are going to be. But that just is not the reality in todays betting world. This sport has no chance of building itself up if people betting have no idea what odds they are going to get. The people that don't care are not likely going to provide any significant amount of long term handle.

To those show think that double probable and exacta probables are going to shed light on what a horse will go off at. If they do thanit certainly isn't very hard for racing to provide that information to its fan base.

Horse, odds as 2nd leg in double, odds as first leg in double, oddds on top in exacta, odds as 2nd horse in exacta........It would be a very easy for them to provide that info for everyone and then we can see if it helps. Why do we have to set up our own spreadsheets to do this. They should want us spending time formulating bets not wasting our time pasting the probable onto a spreadsheet.




.

dilanesp
12-27-2017, 09:07 PM
I doubt it's only 15% . If that were the case, you wouldn't have the big influx of late money in all the pools. The average Joe is not waiting till the last flash to bet.

Not sure its as high as 40% though. My guess, 20-25 at the majors, maybe a bit higher, as they aren't just betting one horse, but spreading it around.

Not sll the late money is whales. Some of it is satellite betting sites with slow uplink, and even a bit of money bet at the last second on track.

lamboguy
12-27-2017, 09:57 PM
thanks for the clarification

Poindexter
12-27-2017, 10:32 PM
I was rushing at the end of my last post:lol::lol::lol::lol:. Here is how the last 2 paragraphs should have read. Sorry about that.

To those who think that double probables and exacta probables are going to shed light on what a horse will go off at, perhaps you are right. If they do than it certainly isn't very hard for racing to provide that information to its fan base.

Horse, odds as 2nd leg in double, odds as first leg in double, odds on top in exacta, odds as 2nd horse in exacta........It would be a very easy for racing to provide that info for everyone and then we can see if it helps us gauge the likely price of a horse prior to the race going off. The whales have this info, why shouldn't the masses? Why do we have to set up our own spreadsheets to do this? Racing should want us spending time formulating bets not wasting our time pasting the probables onto a spreadsheet so we can get this information if we want it. It is just a feature that would help the fan make a more educated wager. If you bet a horse at 3-1 who shows as 8/5 in the 2nd leg of the double and 9/5 in the first leg of the double and 2-1 on top of the exacta, it would be sort of stupid to assume you will get 3-1 on him. But it is up to racing to provide this info to the horse player.

dilanesp
12-28-2017, 12:56 AM
I was rushing at the end of my last post:lol::lol::lol::lol:. Here is how the last 2 paragraphs should have read. Sorry about that.

To those who think that double probables and exacta probables are going to shed light on what a horse will go off at, perhaps you are right. If they do than it certainly isn't very hard for racing to provide that information to its fan base.

Horse, odds as 2nd leg in double, odds as first leg in double, odds on top in exacta, odds as 2nd horse in exacta........It would be a very easy for racing to provide that info for everyone and then we can see if it helps us gauge the likely price of a horse prior to the race going off. The whales have this info, why shouldn't the masses? Why do we have to set up our own spreadsheets to do this? Racing should want us spending time formulating bets not wasting our time pasting the probables onto a spreadsheet so we can get this information if we want it. It is just a feature that would help the fan make a more educated wager. If you bet a horse at 3-1 who shows as 8/5 in the 2nd leg of the double and 9/5 in the first leg of the double and 2-1 on top of the exacta, it would be sort of stupid to assume you will get 3-1 on him. But it is up to racing to provide this info to the horse player.

I think we established in an earlier thread that the whales do not get any exotic pool information other than what is available to everyone.

Poindexter
12-28-2017, 02:59 AM
I think we established in an earlier thread that the whales do not get any exotic pool information other than what is available to everyone.

You are misunderstanding my post.This isn't about info that has not hit the toteboard yet, this is about different ways of estimating how what a horse will go off at. Lets take the 6/5 number 6 horse. In the daily doubles the probables
are for $2
1-6 $12
2-6 $25
3-6 $13
4-6 $21
5-6 $45
6-6 $51
7-6 $99

To estimate how much the 6 is in leg 2 of the double you basically have to calculate how much it would have cost you to get back $100. So(i am just rounding in my head)
1-6 8.33333 x
2-6 4x
3-6 7.7x
4-6 4.8x
5-6 2.2 x
6-6 2 x
7-6 1 x

so to get back $100 we would have to play about 30 combos or $60. So essentially the horse was about a 2/3 shot in the doubles.

You can do the same with the double pools starting in this race, but of course the odds are constantly changing.

At the end of the day we have something like this at 1 minute to post.

#6 6/5, 2/3ddleg2, 4/5 ddleg1, 1-1 exacta on top.

Based off of this information the public now has a fairly good idea that they likely will not see 6/5 on this horse as a closing price.

The daily double leg 2 pool is closed so this never changes, but the other 3 pools are constantly updating. It would take very little for the racetracks to give patrons this extra information so they have a lot better idea what the horse likely will pay, assuming a couple of the posters above are correct.

We can do it ourselves, but to do so we have to design a spreadsheet and constantly paste the updated probables or know how to program the spreadsheet to update itself. But it is too much work for 99 out of 100 people amd it takes them away from doing what they should be doing-strategizing their betting.

All I am saying is that I assume whales take all this into account when projecting the final odds to make their betting decisions with the aid of their computers, so why not provide a helpful tool to help the public make more informed betting decisions since they are the victims of all these late odds changes.

MonmouthParkJoe
12-28-2017, 08:15 AM
1. Others have paid me for those type of insights. It would be unfair to give away that research for free.

2. I never said it is the $2 bettor that is driving handle. It's no secret that it's not. Many causal fans have been driven out of the game. That's a problem now and will be a bigger problem going forward. I do believe that the change related to W2Gs is or should be a big positive influence to the casual player.

3. I'm not disputing a large % of CAW handle is made very late in the wagering cycle. It's not all of it though, despite what you may have heard. I also believe it's very important to differentiate wagers made late but before the gates open and those wagers that are past-posted. There are more than a few on this board (and others) that do not make that distinction and claim that there is a great deal of handle being past-posted. That is simply not the case.

4. As far as lines at the windows, 90% of handle now comes in from off-site. That's across all tracks. When you factor in higher on-track handle at SAR, KEE, DMR,etc it's probably like 91-92% for other tracks. Hence, no long lines at the windows. That time has come and gone.

5. I rarely post these days. Typically when I do it's to correct egregious misinformation. This game has enough problems. There's no reason for people to distort the truth to make it seem worse than it is. Again that's nothing personal. I'm sure you believe CAW handle is 3/4 of the total. Maybe you've read that here or elsewhere in cyberspace. I just didn't want anyone else seeing that figure and believing it too, or worse yet spreading that. CAW teams are not betting $7 billion a year. If there were a dozen large teams they'd each be betting on average $600 million a year. Is that what people really think? I can tell you there are zero teams betting $600mm a year into our pools let alone a dozen of them.

This right here :ThmbUp:

vegasone
12-28-2017, 12:03 PM
Seems to me that it wouldn't matter if you capped betting one minute to post, perception perhaps but you still wouldn't know what the final odds were when you bet, they would just change before the race went off. You would still complain that you didn't get the odds you thought you were getting etc. Maybe would just make you feel better that "probably" someone wasn't cheating but maybe not. That last second betting is still going to throw you off.


People betting the market pay a fortune to be nearer the market so their betting signal gets there faster. it is a never ending battle and not likely the racing people will spend tons of money to fix something that will probably not change things much.

ultracapper
12-28-2017, 01:22 PM
I would pay good money to be able to just cancel a bet 15 seconds into the race. That is one mighty powerful option that seems to be available in some form or another.

Mc990
12-28-2017, 02:03 PM
I was rushing at the end of my last post:lol::lol::lol::lol:. Here is how the last 2 paragraphs should have read. Sorry about that.

To those who think that double probables and exacta probables are going to shed light on what a horse will go off at, perhaps you are right. If they do than it certainly isn't very hard for racing to provide that information to its fan base.

Horse, odds as 2nd leg in double, odds as first leg in double, odds on top in exacta, odds as 2nd horse in exacta........It would be a very easy for racing to provide that info for everyone and then we can see if it helps us gauge the likely price of a horse prior to the race going off. The whales have this info, why shouldn't the masses? Why do we have to set up our own spreadsheets to do this? Racing should want us spending time formulating bets not wasting our time pasting the probables onto a spreadsheet so we can get this information if we want it. It is just a feature that would help the fan make a more educated wager. If you bet a horse at 3-1 who shows as 8/5 in the 2nd leg of the double and 9/5 in the first leg of the double and 2-1 on top of the exacta, it would be sort of stupid to assume you will get 3-1 on him. But it is up to racing to provide this info to the horse player.

I don't think the exacta probables are any better of a gauge than the win pool is... what's to prevent those payouts from being slashed at the bell as well?

Regarding the double will pays, isn't this info widely available? If a player can't take a look at the will pays and get a reasonable read on the closing odds for a given horse then maybe they have no business in the pools in the first place...

To assume we can't deduce approximate win pool odds from the will pays is to admit there are consistent market ineffencincies, which I don't believe to be the case.

dilanesp
12-28-2017, 03:18 PM
Seems to me that it wouldn't matter if you capped betting one minute to post, perception perhaps but you still wouldn't know what the final odds were when you bet, they would just change before the race went off. You would still complain that you didn't get the odds you thought you were getting etc. Maybe would just make you feel better that "probably" someone wasn't cheating but maybe not. That last second betting is still going to throw you off.


People betting the market pay a fortune to be nearer the market so their betting signal gets there faster. it is a never ending battle and not likely the racing people will spend tons of money to fix something that will probably not change things much.

One thing you could do is stop it at a random time between 0 and 2 minutes before post. Then the whales could never time it.

Poindexter
12-28-2017, 03:36 PM
I don't think the exacta probables are any better of a gauge than the win pool is... what's to prevent those payouts from being slashed at the bell as well?

Yes, but that doesn't mean the extra information can't help you better gauge the projected odds of a horse.


Regarding the double will pays, isn't this info widely available? If a player can't take a look at the will pays and get a reasonable read on the closing odds for a given horse then maybe they have no business in the pools in the first place...

Yes if you take your stance that the only thing that matters is the incoming double pool. I think that the exacta probables and outgoing doubles play a part in the equation as well. Since they are ever changing, we hardly have time to recalculate them every minute and get in our bets in all of the pools. If this information was provided for us, it would take only a glance. Also newbies need to be educated. Most aren't going to realize that they can peek at the double pools to have an indication of what their horse might pay. Moreover they likely would not have a clue how to interpret the information. Racing has to build a business by educating it's patrons not snubbing them.

Right now I think the education they are getting is if there how wins they get paid 7/5 when they bet them at 2-1 or they lose. Hardly entices people to want to come back again.



To assume we can't deduce approximate win pool odds from the will pays is to admit there are consistent market ineffencincies, which I don't believe to be the case.


See above.

Gentz
12-28-2017, 04:03 PM
It's not a case of updating the odds...it's a case of having all these simulcast sites sending in their wagers to the host track instantly...something that doesn't happen currently.

The host track can't update the odds if it doesn't have accurate pool info. And it can't have accurate pool info until all the money is in.

Therein lies the problem.

This is the problem exactly!

AltonKelsey
12-29-2017, 03:58 PM
One thing you could do is stop it at a random time between 0 and 2 minutes before post. Then the whales could never time it.


Ok. Then the whales would be forced to bet at the 2 minute mark, but any time after that you don't know if you could get the bet in or not.

Maybe a better solution would be to prohibit computerized batch betting in the last 60 seconds. Don't know how you would enforce it though, since it happens at the ADW side.

AndyC
12-29-2017, 04:15 PM
....Regarding the double will pays, isn't this info widely available? If a player can't take a look at the will pays and get a reasonable read on the closing odds for a given horse then maybe they have no business in the pools in the first place...

To assume we can't deduce approximate win pool odds from the will pays is to admit there are consistent market inefficiencies, which I don't believe to be the case.

Wouldn't you expect market inefficiencies when the DD pools are typically (at SA) about 10% of the W-P-S pools? And a DD has 100 will-pays given fields of 10 in each race. Seems there would be many instances where DD payoffs would be skewed versus the win odds. But I agree that it is better than not knowing.

dilanesp
12-29-2017, 05:40 PM
Ok. Then the whales would be forced to bet at the 2 minute mark, but any time after that you don't know if you could get the bet in or not.

Maybe a better solution would be to prohibit computerized batch betting in the last 60 seconds. Don't know how you would enforce it though, since it happens at the ADW side.

You just need different cut offs for different sources. Technologically, it is easy. The problem is that that it would probably cost some handle and tracks wouldn't want to give that up.

senortout
12-30-2017, 12:05 AM
I believe it was CD that made a valiant attempt to close betting at post time. Not only did customers complain about being shut out, but the handle was noticeably impacted. Hard to ask a business to take steps that will reduce revenues.

Tony you said Churchill made a valiant effort to stop wagering at post time but went back to their old ways when betters compained? This strongly implies that they allow betting after the gates have opened. Barring any malfuntion, this does not happen. While on the subject which is complex, consider some things we at home could do to make ourselves sharply aware of how things work...and here's my suggestion!
1. If you are using an ADW, get the betting totals just as the gates are being loaded...keep it simple for now, just the win, place and show totals. A little searching on the ADW site and you can easily find these. Next, after the race is over, retake these same w-p-s totals. The difference,(roughly accurate depending on when the first totals are taken) should open your eyes. It should be a real eye-opener since up to now a lot of us think the last total won't be that much more that the first one.

ALL THE LATE MONEY, OR A HUGE PORTION OF IT, AT LEAST, IS FLUSHED INTO THE POOLS TOO LATE FOR US TO DO A THING ABOUT IT. Somewhere at a bush track, MOST OF THE MONEY BET, BY FAR, COMES FROM OFF-TRACK. Making that 'juicy' 3-1 shot you've worked so hard on, 6/5 or less.
Or not....perhaps your handicapping has failed you and the horse swings in the other direction. THAT HAS HAPPENED TO ME, IN NEARLY THE SAME RATIO. Also suprisingly, I win a few of these 'failures'

So, learn to trust yourself and things will come out in the wash, in the end. Except, please, and now I'm talking to you, Gulfstream Park, lets get my ponies to the gate on time. Every time. Its gotten so bad that if I am playing two tracks and one has a 5:30 post and GS Park has a 5:28 post I usually bet the 5:30 post before going to Gulfstream and betting there.

AltonKelsey
12-30-2017, 01:21 AM
You just need different cut offs for different sources. Technologically, it is easy. The problem is that that it would probably cost some handle and tracks wouldn't want to give that up.

I wasn't thinking of shutting off the entire ADW, just the batch aspect. No way to prevent a big win bet, just the mass betting of exacta's and other exotics at the bell.

90% of the time , these bet downs were never going to go off at the 'teaser' price anyhow. These people that think they divined a 2-1 shot that goes to 1-1, have no clue.

thespaah
12-31-2017, 06:02 PM
That doesn't surprise me. There are plenty of "regular horseplayers" who bet a decent amount but are not whales. Some post on this board.

If it was all whales, online bet shops like tvg and xpressbet wouldn't be successful, because whales go to rebate shops.
"If it was all whales, online bet shops like tvg and xpressbet wouldn't be successful, because whales go to rebate shops."
That is precisely my point..
Now let us suppose for a moment that all of the host tracks decided to add a fee that would make the rebates a wash. Did not NYRA do this? Add some kind of fee that made the rebates a lot less lucrative?
Just what would happen to handle? The whales and other larger volume bettors would eventually find other wagering opportunities. Handle would do what?
Increase? Decrease? Stay flat?
I believe overall handle would decrease at an alarmingly high percentage.
If the opposite were true, then why would the ADW's offer rebates in the first place? If the whales are not driving the bulk of the handle, why offer them a perk?
Notwithstanding the learned OP's input, no matter what he claims oto know, Unless someone can prove it, I think he's wrong.
Look, as a business owner, why would I offer a perk to anyone that contributes no more or no less to my bottom line?
I wouldn't.
Lets just say I sell turf irrigation equipment.
I have one large customer. That business is say a golf course. They are 25% of my revenue. The other 75% are small regular customers.
One day the golf course general manager shows up in my office. He asks me for a 5% discount off everything he buys.
Now, Do I say "no", negotiate the asking price downward, or do I cave and give him what he wants?
In my world, I tell him, let me sit on it.
After looking at the marketplace, I am one of two irrigation supply houses in the area. Otherwise, he must buy on line. The other company, 50 miles away, isn't going to drop his prices to anyone.
Can I do without the golf course? It would be tough, but i could have my accountant take care of it and I can market my company. Would the GM of that golf club take his business elsewhere? Maybe. Not probable..
I tell him there will be no discount on your first dollar. Spend X dollars and I will consider doing something.

thespaah
12-31-2017, 06:32 PM
I would pay good money to be able to just cancel a bet 15 seconds into the race. That is one mighty powerful option that seems to be available in some form or another.

No way..That would be patently unjust.
When do we get to the point where we ultimately have to accept responsibility for our actions?
In what number of places do we draw the line in the sand until we get to the line in the sand?.....
Why 15 seconds? Why not make it at the top pf the stretch?

dilanesp
12-31-2017, 07:08 PM
thespaah:

To understand why rebates are the way they are, take a look at airlines. Airlines do a great job of selling the same flight to a leisure traveler for $150 and a business traveler for $650. You make maximum profits this way, and airlines, like racetracks, are a low margin business.

Rebates allow racetracks the ability to charge bettors who care about takeout less without doing general takeout reductions.

By the way, all businesses do a certain amount of this. For instance, supermarket coupons are a form of this- if you care about saving money, you clip the coupons. There is nothing disreputable about it.

thespaah
12-31-2017, 07:27 PM
Seems to me that it wouldn't matter if you capped betting one minute to post, perception perhaps but you still wouldn't know what the final odds were when you bet, they would just change before the race went off. You would still complain that you didn't get the odds you thought you were getting etc. Maybe would just make you feel better that "probably" someone wasn't cheating but maybe not. That last second betting is still going to throw you off.


People betting the market pay a fortune to be nearer the market so their betting signal gets there faster. it is a never ending battle and not likely the racing people will spend tons of money to fix something that will probably not change things much.

Changing odds are in integral part of pair-mutuel wagering.
No matter when the betting is closed, the odds may change before or shortly after the race begins.

thespaah
12-31-2017, 07:29 PM
thespaah:

To understand why rebates are the way they are, take a look at airlines. Airlines do a great job of selling the same flight to a leisure traveler for $150 and a business traveler for $650. You make maximum profits this way, and airlines, like racetracks, are a low margin business.

Rebates allow racetracks the ability to charge bettors who care about takeout less without doing general takeout reductions.

By the way, all businesses do a certain amount of this. For instance, supermarket coupons are a form of this- if you care about saving money, you clip the coupons. There is nothing disreputable about it.

You forget one important aspect. Both businesses Airline and racing charge fees that guarantee some return.

dollarsuperfinder
12-31-2017, 07:34 PM
:confused:

green80
12-31-2017, 07:35 PM
thespaah:

To understand why rebates are the way they are, take a look at airlines. Airlines do a great job of selling the same flight to a leisure traveler for $150 and a business traveler for $650. You make maximum profits this way, and airlines, like racetracks, are a low margin business.

Rebates allow racetracks the ability to charge bettors who care about takeout less without doing general takeout reductions.

By the way, all businesses do a certain amount of this. For instance, supermarket coupons are a form of this- if you care about saving money, you clip the coupons. There is nothing disreputable about it.

Are there any tracks that give rebates or is it just the ADW's? I know there are track owned ADW's.

Personally I think that anyone that plays the horses regularly should play where getting a rebate if possible. Now even the small players can get a rebate.

jay68802
12-31-2017, 09:27 PM
Today at Gulfstream:


Win Pool At Post Final Last Dump % of total win pool

Race #7: $168,000 $270,000 $102,000 .37

Race #8: $167,000 $197,000 $ 30,000 .15

Race #10: $124,000 $197,000 $ 73,000 .37

Race #11: $189,000 $261,000 $ 72,000 .28

So when making a bet when the horses were loading, you only knew on a average what the odds were for .75 percent of the total win pool.

Only for four races but it shows how much of the pool is coming in late.

JustRalph
12-31-2017, 09:43 PM
But two minutes after you two make that bet, it drops from 90% to 60%! :lol:

Thatís great :lol:

nvemil
12-31-2017, 10:03 PM
:confused:

Yes indeed. In deep stretch after glancing around. I was watching in real time and it looked terrible.

jay68802
12-31-2017, 10:15 PM
Yes indeed. In deep stretch after glancing around. I was watching in real time and it looked terrible.

I saw it live and watch the head on replay just now to see if maybe the 8 came out a little or the horse took a wrong step. No reason I could see for the pull up. Strange.

chuckster1968
01-01-2018, 12:21 AM
Better talk to Paul Newman and Robert Redford......I said place it on the 2...all of it, place it?? ha ha ha.....some of the toteboards and the old tracks combined with different IP providers across North America and money coming in with simulcast betting, the money just takes longer to get into the bank accounts. Its not a conspiracy....

Fager Fan
01-01-2018, 12:46 AM
"If it was all whales, online bet shops like tvg and xpressbet wouldn't be successful, because whales go to rebate shops."
That is precisely my point..
Now let us suppose for a moment that all of the host tracks decided to add a fee that would make the rebates a wash. Did not NYRA do this? Add some kind of fee that made the rebates a lot less lucrative?
Just what would happen to handle? The whales and other larger volume bettors would eventually find other wagering opportunities. Handle would do what?
Increase? Decrease? Stay flat?
I believe overall handle would decrease at an alarmingly high percentage.
If the opposite were true, then why would the ADW's offer rebates in the first place? If the whales are not driving the bulk of the handle, why offer them a perk?
Notwithstanding the learned OP's input, no matter what he claims oto know, Unless someone can prove it, I think he's wrong.
Look, as a business owner, why would I offer a perk to anyone that contributes no more or no less to my bottom line?
I wouldn't.
Lets just say I sell turf irrigation equipment.
I have one large customer. That business is say a golf course. They are 25% of my revenue. The other 75% are small regular customers.
One day the golf course general manager shows up in my office. He asks me for a 5% discount off everything he buys.
Now, Do I say "no", negotiate the asking price downward, or do I cave and give him what he wants?
In my world, I tell him, let me sit on it.
After looking at the marketplace, I am one of two irrigation supply houses in the area. Otherwise, he must buy on line. The other company, 50 miles away, isn't going to drop his prices to anyone.
Can I do without the golf course? It would be tough, but i could have my accountant take care of it and I can market my company. Would the GM of that golf club take his business elsewhere? Maybe. Not probable..
I tell him there will be no discount on your first dollar. Spend X dollars and I will consider doing something.


It's all because of how it all got started. I don't know exactly which people were the initial culprits, but they were totally clueless. They made bad deals with tracks carrying their signal, then bad deals with ADWs, and then finally they had to compete with offshores for the whales so gave them what they needed to win that battle.

Now they're in a predicament that can't be fixed quickly unless they do like California and get a law passed that puts a cap on it. They're gradually making the rates more where they should be, but heaven only knows when it'd ever get where it should, probably only after racing has died.

ultracapper
01-02-2018, 11:27 AM
I saw it live and watch the head on replay just now to see if maybe the 8 came out a little or the horse took a wrong step. No reason I could see for the pull up. Strange.

:8: was bearing in and jock was pulling him out to straighten him. I think the jock of the :4: reacted late to the last of those adjustments by the :8:. I think he'd seen the :8: adjust towards him a couple times down the stretch, and the final time I think he reacted as if the :8: was going to continue out even further while adjusting, even though by now :8: had already straightened and was coming out no further. Looks funky, but I think it was just slow reaction and maybe a bit of bad judgement by the rider of the :4:

jay68802
01-02-2018, 12:33 PM
:8: was bearing in and jock was pulling him out to straighten him. I think the jock of the :4: reacted late to the last of those adjustments by the :8:. I think he'd seen the :8: adjust towards him a couple times down the stretch, and the final time I think he reacted as if the :8: was going to continue out even further while adjusting, even though by now :8: had already straightened and was coming out no further. Looks funky, but I think it was just slow reaction and maybe a bit of bad judgement by the rider of the :4:

Read your post and watched the replay again. The last time the :8: started to drift in the jock on the :4: seemed to start paying more attention to his mount. Then when the jockey on the :4: saw the :8: again, it was farther out than he expected and there was a delayed reaction on his part. Still looked very strange.

TonyK@HSH
01-03-2018, 07:42 AM
Tony you said Churchill made a valiant effort to stop wagering at post time but went back to their old ways when betters compained? This strongly implies that they allow betting after the gates have opened. Barring any malfuntion, this does not happen.


I certainly didn't mean to imply that CD permits betting after a race begins. Just that updating of odds would continue after a race began.

Tony

davew
01-03-2018, 04:51 PM
We need to limit bet size near post time - that's the ticket

the numbers could be adjusted up or down depending on quality of track and/or race like the Kentucky Derby could be 100 times higher

5 minutes nothing over $10K
4 minutes nothing over $5K
3 minutes nothing over $2K
2 minutes nothing over $1k
1 minutes nothing over $200
0 minutes nothing over $20
loading gate nothing over $5


that would help wild swings

chiguy
01-03-2018, 05:42 PM
It would help with the wild swings but it would be a detriment to the game. Guys that are betting 200-500 on a win bet are waiting to the last second to make that bet. I honestly think the issue is more with technology and these programs that high volume guys have hitting pools late.

AlsoEligible
01-04-2018, 02:47 PM
We need to limit bet size near post time - that's the ticket

the numbers could be adjusted up or down depending on quality of track and/or race like the Kentucky Derby could be 100 times higher

5 minutes nothing over $10K
4 minutes nothing over $5K
3 minutes nothing over $2K
2 minutes nothing over $1k
1 minutes nothing over $200
0 minutes nothing over $20
loading gate nothing over $5


that would help wild swings

Most of the whales are sending large batches made up of hundreds/thousands of small wagers. They're not sending a single $10,000 win bet. So this wouldn't do anything to stop their money from coming in at the last second.

Stopping all wagering at 0 mtp would stop the odds from shifting during the race, but there's still always going to be a shift after betting stops. I don't see how you can get around that, it's literally just physics. But at least the public's perception will be better if it's not happening while the horses are actually running.

jay68802
01-04-2018, 03:15 PM
Last night at Delta Downs race #10, the reported win pool was $31,000 when the horses started to load into the gate. During loading a jockey was injured, and the race was delayed for about 20 min. Right after the horses were unloaded, the win pool was $45,000 and ended up at $47,000. Just shows how much of the handle comes in the last dump. If a large bet or 2 is included in that time on a certain horse, the odds are going to change. And if the bets are made at different sites, and are received at different times, a fluctuation is going to happen.

Another interesting note. The Exacta pool on that race went from $41,000 to $37,000 and back up to $40,000.

davew
02-23-2018, 02:45 AM
Okay. the acid test.

1st at Sunland 12/26/2017 Two minutes to post

5 horses. The 1 horse was scratched

Betfair odds

2---38
3---6
4---4
5---5-2
6---9-5

Tote odds

2---5
3---5-2
4---2
5---3
6---3

and the off odds

2--25
3--5-2
4--2
5--3
8--8-5

Allan

How much volume is being matched in NJ and what tracks are they showing?

The odds do not mean much if you can not match decent sized bets at those points.

Dave Schwartz
02-23-2018, 11:35 AM
It would help with the wild swings but it would be a detriment to the game. Guys that are betting 200-500 on a win bet are waiting to the last second to make that bet. I honestly think the issue is more with technology and these programs that high volume guys have hitting pools late.

There are all kinds of ways the process could be improved without a major overhaul.

If there was an absolute fixed time of day that betting in the race would close, and then there was a minimum 2-minute lag before the gate opened, we'd have stable odds throughout the race.

Watch how fast those tracks whose post times are always way too early come in line when that "extra time" is wasted because nobody is able to bet.

People would still be putting in money at the last possible second, but at least you would know when that was.

It would also remove the perception that people are betting or canceling bets late.

Also, when special circumstances arise (such as a horse acting up), a provision could exist to allow canceling of bets on that horse only. Other than that, no canceling in the last 5 minutes.

davew
02-23-2018, 11:42 AM
Also, when special circumstances arise (such as a horse acting up), a provision could exist to allow canceling of bets on that horse only. Other than that, no canceling in the last 5 minutes.

You would need a provision for late scratch at gate like a mandatory 5 more minutes to allow changes in exotics for people that wish to do so.

Dave Schwartz
02-23-2018, 12:21 PM
You would need a provision for late scratch at gate like a mandatory 5 more minutes to allow changes in exotics for people that wish to do so.

Easy enough to accomplish.

It would also make a gate scratch a big deal.