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molson721
12-22-2017, 09:57 PM
Racing continues to ignore YET ANOTHER OF MANY problems they have been ignoring for DECADES! Another race where I placed a substantial win bet on a horse that was 11-1 when loading, 7-1 after the break and turned for home at 4-1. I am done wagering ON ALL TRACKS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT! Problems like this and SO MANY OTHERS THAT ARE IGNORED BY RACE TRACKS ARE ANOTHER REASON WHY WE NEED 1 HEAD OF ALL RACING.
Now I know why I have wagered less and less over the last 3 years. Maybe I should go to a casino! From what I hear, they treat the customer better than horse racing does. Then again, when did racing ever give a s*** about the customer. I will never try to get anybody interested in this sport.

Hey you racing morons at the top??? Keep kissing the ass of the wealthy like you did at the Del Mar Breeders Cup and listening to morons like Bobby Flay who has led and supported the price increases for food, parking and entrance fees to the race tracks of New York. The blue collar bettor is your bread and butter yet YOU CONTINUE TO TREAT US LIKE GARBAGE. My new years resolution is to cut my betting in half yet again until I see positive changes but i won't hold my breath. I'm in my 30's and if racing doesn't listen to my demographic, racing will be gone by 2030 and to be honest, I won't give a s***!

Augenj
12-22-2017, 10:12 PM
I don't disagree with anything you said and I don't know what track you bet but... is there a chance your "substantial" win bet affected the odds? I'm thinking back many years to a quarter horse race at Los Alamitos when I bet $200 to win on a horse at 8/1 and he dropped to 2/1 at the start.

JustRalph
12-22-2017, 10:25 PM
I believe it’s been mentioned here multiple times that "blue collar" types are not the sports bread and butter

Fager Fan
12-22-2017, 11:28 PM
Would it make a difference to you if the odds changed after you bet, regardless of whether it's during the running or in a 2 minute cutoff? So how does racing stop the odds from changing from the last minute betting?

cj
12-23-2017, 01:00 AM
Would it make a difference to you if the odds changed after you bet, regardless of whether it's during the running or in a 2 minute cutoff? So how does racing stop the odds from changing from the last minute betting?

Yes, there would still be odds changes. What there wouldn't be was any question that money is not coming in after the bell. You can't stop the odds changing after the pools close. You can stop the possibility of betting after the gate opens and the perception that it can happen.

VigorsTheGrey
12-23-2017, 01:30 AM
How is the betting exchange in New Jersey able to pull off in-race betting, even during the stretch run...?

How can the computer networks process the bets in so short a time when most video feeds have delays built into them.?

Fager Fan
12-23-2017, 08:32 AM
Yes, there would still be odds changes. What there wouldn't be was any question that money is not coming in after the bell. You can't stop the odds changing after the pools close. You can stop the possibility of betting after the gate opens and the perception that it can happen.

Right, but it sounds like his complaint is that the odds dropped after he bet.

I understand the perception problem with odds dropping during the running, but I've never heard a call for betting to close 1 minute prior. Maybe I've missed it.

dilanesp
12-23-2017, 09:21 AM
Yes, there would still be odds changes. What there wouldn't be was any question that money is not coming in after the bell. You can't stop the odds changing after the pools close. You can stop the possibility of betting after the gate opens and the perception that it can happen.

+1

Tom
12-23-2017, 09:33 AM
Steve Byk has addressed this many times - something the trak totally ignore.
Like their "timing" systems (:pound:), the tote systems are antiquated. X,Y and Z have to occur before the odds are updated.

The tracks have money to waste on 5 horse stakes races but not a dime to address the integrity of the game, which has very little imho. Customer is foreign word to the racing pea brains.

Fager Fan
12-23-2017, 09:47 AM
He's complained about it many times? That's great, but what's the solution? The only one I know of is to stop wagering 1 minute or so before post. Is that what you all want, and if so, why don't you publicly call for that?

Tom
12-23-2017, 09:54 AM
Because racing doesn't give a crap what we want or think.
Those whores at GP would be running the race at midnight if they thought there was sawbuck left out there.

Byk was not complaining, he was explaining why it happens.

Fager Fan
12-23-2017, 11:21 AM
Because racing doesn't give a crap what we want or think.
Those whores at GP would be running the race at midnight if they thought there was sawbuck left out there.

Byk was not complaining, he was explaining why it happens.

As if an explanation helps solve your problem? I'm asking you all what you think the answer is. Do you want to cut it off a minute prior to post? Or do you want to be able to bet right up to the gate opening? What is your answer to solve the problem ? I have a sneaking suspicion that you all will fuss about a cut off prior to post, leaving no solution that will satisfy you.

Tom
12-23-2017, 11:35 AM
I would like them fix the tote system and also stop betting 1 minute before post time. It will never happen - customers do not matter in horse racing.

lamboguy
12-23-2017, 12:04 PM
I would like them fix the tote system and also stop betting 1 minute before post time. It will never happen - customers do not matter in horse racing.
truer words have never been spoken


merry christmas

onefast99
12-23-2017, 12:17 PM
How is the betting exchange in New Jersey able to pull off in-race betting, even during the stretch run...?

How can the computer networks process the bets in so short a time when most video feeds have delays built into them.?
The "exchange" system is a separate system from the pari-mutuel system. The "exchange" system is based on layers and backers, the layer is the one who believes the event will not happen(bet against) while the backer believes the event will happen(bet for). I have played the exchange about 8 times now each and every time it becomes easier. You are betting as the race is in progress
The odds are about 20% better for the "exchange" many of the times than the pari-mutuels. "Exchange" has a takeout of only 12% as well.

VigorsTheGrey
12-23-2017, 12:39 PM
The "exchange" system is a separate system from the pari-mutuel system. The "exchange" system is based on layers and backers, the layer is the one who believes the event will not happen(bet against) while the backer believes the event will happen(bet for). I have played the exchange about 8 times now each and every time it becomes easier. You are betting as the race is in progress
The odds are about 20% better for the "exchange" many of the times than the pari-mutuels. "Exchange" has a takeout of only 12% as well.

Thanks, yes...the exchange is a different system...I was just wondering how the timing of betting on horses running down the stretch works in real time...

Now if I was at the track, what, do I make the wager when I see my horse 3 lengths ahead and drawing away...? Sounds pretty good to me, but by then have all the layers jumped ship and are now on board with my horse also so we all get 2/5 odds..

But mainly I was interested in what hardware and connections people use to get in these last second bets...some of the tv feeds that I see have 1 minute or more delays in broadcast time so by the time you see the horses in the stretch the race is already over in reality, so how can they still allow betting to occur...

onefast99
12-23-2017, 01:01 PM
Thanks, yes...the exchange is a different system...I was just wondering how the timing of betting on horses running down the stretch works in real time...

Now if I was at the track, what, do I make the wager when I see my horse 3 lengths ahead and drawing away...? Sounds pretty good to me, but by then have all the layers jumped ship and are now on board with my horse also so we all get 2/5 odds..

But mainly I was interested in what hardware and connections people use to get in these last second bets...some of the tv feeds that I see have 1 minute or more delays in broadcast time so by the time you see the horses in the stretch the race is already over in reality, so how can they still allow betting to occur...If you are in NJ go to 4njbets.com there is a tutorial on this as well on the betfair site. If there is a direct match for your bet it will be placed. I haven't encountered yet where the bet wasn't taken.

JohnGalt1
12-23-2017, 01:39 PM
I would like them fix the tote system and also stop betting 1 minute before post time.

Didn't all tracks do this for awhile after the pick 6 scandal?

cj
12-23-2017, 01:58 PM
Didn't all tracks do this for awhile after the pick 6 scandal?

Some definitely did, not sure if it was all of them. However, foolish bettors complained so much they stopped. We reap what we sow.

dilanesp
12-23-2017, 02:15 PM
Some definitely did, not sure if it was all of them. However, foolish bettors complained so much they stopped. We reap what we sow.

People hate being shut out. I was shut out at Aqueduct yesterday when my voucher was stuck in a machine and it took the guy 5 minutes to get to the machine and fix it. (It saved me money. :) )

castaway01
12-23-2017, 03:51 PM
Thanks, yes...the exchange is a different system...I was just wondering how the timing of betting on horses running down the stretch works in real time...

Now if I was at the track, what, do I make the wager when I see my horse 3 lengths ahead and drawing away...? Sounds pretty good to me, but by then have all the layers jumped ship and are now on board with my horse also so we all get 2/5 odds..

But mainly I was interested in what hardware and connections people use to get in these last second bets...some of the tv feeds that I see have 1 minute or more delays in broadcast time so by the time you see the horses in the stretch the race is already over in reality, so how can they still allow betting to occur...

If you try to bet on a horse with a three-length lead entering the stretch on the NJ exchange, you MIGHT get the bet matched but it will be at 1-100 odds, not 2-5 (the lowest odds are 1.01-1, and that's what a horse with a three-length lead at that point in the race will be at). A few people will lay that because more than 1 out of 100 times a horse with a lead will stop late or something else bizarre will happen. It's really not the lucrative money-making idea it might seem for either side.

I have never seen a TV feed that is 1 minute behind. It might be a few seconds, but I guess that's a chance you take if you want to bet on the exchange. As OneFast said, it's not exactly revolutionary technology---Betfair has done in-race wagering in Europe for years.

cj
12-23-2017, 04:26 PM
People hate being shut out. I was shut out at Aqueduct yesterday when my voucher was stuck in a machine and it took the guy 5 minutes to get to the machine and fix it. (It saved me money. :) )

If the time the pools will close is now known and someone still gets shut out they are not very bright.

Robert Fischer
12-23-2017, 05:02 PM
The hourly workers at Gulfstream Park would never allow this.

molson721
12-23-2017, 06:06 PM
Would it make a difference to you if the odds changed after you bet, regardless of whether it's during the running or in a 2 minute cutoff? So how does racing stop the odds from changing from the last minute betting?
Today's computers can process information almost instantly. They are close to coming up with computer driven driver-less cars. You can place an order on the New York stock exchange or a wager on a race seconds before the race goes off and after you hit send, the order goes through almost instantly. To think there is nothing wrong with this shows age, a lack of today's computer abilities or both. I hope that doesn't come off as an insult because it is not meant to be. Are the people calculating the odds using an abacus?? Its called technology and there is no excuse for this. I would not have wagered what I did if the horse was closer to 4-1 instead of 11-1 at post time. For theodds to change twice during a 5 furlong sprint is ridiculous. It isn't difficult USING MODERN TECHNOLOGY to update the odds every 30 seconds especially close to post time. By the way, significant for me is a $50(not enough to cause the drop in odds) win bet instead of the usual $10-15 plus a few smaller exotics and my win bet was placed after the first horse was loaded. I wager the same amount every day and try to be disciplined in my betting but sometimes when I think I am getting a great price, I go against what I usually wager so I am not a big fish but the blue collar guy racing doesn't really care about.

PaceAdvantage
12-23-2017, 07:52 PM
It's not a case of updating the odds...it's a case of having all these simulcast sites sending in their wagers to the host track instantly...something that doesn't happen currently.

The host track can't update the odds if it doesn't have accurate pool info. And it can't have accurate pool info until all the money is in.

Therein lies the problem.

Fager Fan
12-23-2017, 08:17 PM
Today's computers can process information almost instantly. They are close to coming up with computer driven driver-less cars. You can place an order on the New York stock exchange or a wager on a race seconds before the race goes off and after you hit send, the order goes through almost instantly. To think there is nothing wrong with this shows age, a lack of today's computer abilities or both. I hope that doesn't come off as an insult because it is not meant to be. Are the people calculating the odds using an abacus?? Its called technology and there is no excuse for this. I would not have wagered what I did if the horse was closer to 4-1 instead of 11-1 at post time. For theodds to change twice during a 5 furlong sprint is ridiculous. It isn't difficult USING MODERN TECHNOLOGY to update the odds every 30 seconds especially close to post time. By the way, significant for me is a $50(not enough to cause the drop in odds) win bet instead of the usual $10-15 plus a few smaller exotics and my win bet was placed after the first horse was loaded. I wager the same amount every day and try to be disciplined in my betting but sometimes when I think I am getting a great price, I go against what I usually wager so I am not a big fish but the blue collar guy racing doesn't really care about.

Let's assume its instantaneous. Youre still in the same boat, you only learn of it quicker. If you're playing a last second game against the whales, it's tough for you to win.

If I played substantial money in this sport, I'd be demanding equal treatment for all bettors. It seems to me that the rebates, and huge rebates to whales,takes more money from smart players than anything else.

MonmouthParkJoe
12-23-2017, 08:50 PM
Given that 40% of total pools come in during the last mtp, I cant see anyone stopping a minute before the race and closing the pools.

Bot wagering isnt as simple as saying computers process quickly. Its a bit more complex that that, but they have access to the pools allowing them to place wagers quickly.

It was already mentioned here ,but think of the entire US tote scenario similar to the way airlines are set up. Certain ones have hubs in different areas of the country and always fly in and out even if it makes trips longer. Tote is similar, and having to have double hops before being pulled into the pools can create shifts in the end.

What track were you wagering on?

cj
12-23-2017, 08:57 PM
Given that 40% of total pools come in during the last mtp, I cant see anyone stopping a minute before the race and closing the pools.



You don't think people would adjust and realize 1 MTP was actually 1 MTP? They'd still bet 40% in the last minute, they'd just actually know when the 1 MTP is.

Whosonfirst
12-23-2017, 08:58 PM
It's not a case of updating the odds...it's a case of having all these simulcast sites sending in their wagers to the host track instantly...something that doesn't happen currently.

The host track can't update the odds if it doesn't have accurate pool info. And it can't have accurate pool info until all the money is in.

Therein lies the problem.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
A track insider went over this in some detail a while back, maybe six months ago. My biggest problem has never been the shifting odds, but getting my horse across the finish line first.

therussmeister
12-23-2017, 10:02 PM
You don't think people would adjust and realize 1 MTP was actually 1 MTP? They'd still bet 40% in the last minute, they'd just actually know when the 1 MTP is.

Just like people betting Gulfstream know that 0 mtp = 5 mtp, or 8 mtp if it is the start of the rainbow 6.

Fox
12-23-2017, 11:57 PM
Racing continues to ignore YET ANOTHER OF MANY problems they have been ignoring for DECADES! Another race where I placed a substantial win bet on a horse that was 11-1 when loading, 7-1 after the break and turned for home at 4-1. I am done wagering ON ALL TRACKS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT! Problems like this and SO MANY OTHERS THAT ARE IGNORED BY RACE TRACKS ARE ANOTHER REASON WHY WE NEED 1 HEAD OF ALL RACING.
Now I know why I have wagered less and less over the last 3 years. Maybe I should go to a casino! From what I hear, they treat the customer better than horse racing does. Then again, when did racing ever give a s*** about the customer. I will never try to get anybody interested in this sport.

Hey you racing morons at the top??? Keep kissing the ass of the wealthy like you did at the Del Mar Breeders Cup and listening to morons like Bobby Flay who has led and supported the price increases for food, parking and entrance fees to the race tracks of New York. The blue collar bettor is your bread and butter yet YOU CONTINUE TO TREAT US LIKE GARBAGE. My new years resolution is to cut my betting in half yet again until I see positive changes but i won't hold my breath. I'm in my 30's and if racing doesn't listen to my demographic, racing will be gone by 2030 and to be honest, I won't give a s***!

Any reason you haven't identified the park and race that upset you? I'd like to know which one it was. Thx.

dilanesp
12-24-2017, 12:39 AM
You don't think people would adjust and realize 1 MTP was actually 1 MTP? They'd still bet 40% in the last minute, they'd just actually know when the 1 MTP is.

Actually, when I started playing the horses, NYRA's post times were to the minute accurate. (Marshall Cassidy used to say "it is NOW post time!" during the middle of the load usually.) And NYRA had plenty of handle.

TonyK@HSH
12-24-2017, 01:36 AM
Some definitely did, not sure if it was all of them. However, foolish bettors complained so much they stopped. We reap what we sow.

I believe it was CD that made a valiant attempt to close betting at post time. Not only did customers complain about being shut out, but the handle was noticeably impacted. Hard to ask a business to take steps that will reduce revenues.

cj
12-24-2017, 01:40 AM
Actually, when I started playing the horses, NYRA's post times were to the minute accurate. (Marshall Cassidy used to say "it is NOW post time!" during the middle of the load usually.) And NYRA had plenty of handle.

They still are, but the only difference now is they stay open if there is an issue with a horse or with the load. But NYRA keeps it to a minimum. People adapt to the rules in place.

cj
12-24-2017, 01:41 AM
I believe it was CD that made a valiant attempt to close betting at post time. Not only did customers complain about being shut out, but the handle was noticeably impacted. Hard to ask a business to take steps that will reduce revenues.

Would have been short term in my opinion. Could be people also weren't betting because, you know, the pools had just been exposed as hackable.

JohnGalt1
12-24-2017, 10:47 AM
Instead of shutting off the tote at the start of the race, shut off betting when the first horse is loaded and the gate is shut.

Dave Schwartz
12-24-2017, 10:58 AM
Instead of shutting off the tote at the start of the race, shut off betting when the first horse is loaded and the gate is shut.

Odds would still be changing with that arrangement but it is a step in the right direction. It would not change the impact, but would prevent late changes after the gate opened as well as the perception of cheating in every race.

biggestal99
12-24-2017, 11:26 AM
How is the betting exchange in New Jersey able to pull off in-race betting, even during the stretch run...?

How can the computer networks process the bets in so short a time when most video feeds have delays built into them.?

Mostly bot betting.

The numbers change quickly.

Think long: think wrong.

I have a lot of fun in running betting.

I am mostly laying confirmed quitters.

I have a price in mind I post it at just after the start most of the time it is matched by a bot.

Love stealing money from the bots.

Bots is stupid. They don’t know quitters.

Allan

biggestal99
12-24-2017, 11:31 AM
This is why small players need the x, betting at fixed odds is just great.

Never, ever, worry about odds dropping again for the rest of my life.

My advice is to move to jersey and put all this odds dropping crap to bed.

It’s a tremendous way of wagering.

Allan

biggestal99
12-24-2017, 11:45 AM
The "exchange" system is a separate system from the pari-mutuel system. The "exchange" system is based on layers and backers, the layer is the one who believes the event will not happen(bet against) while the backer believes the event will happen(bet for). I have played the exchange about 8 times now each and every time it becomes easier. You are betting as the race is in progress
The odds are about 20% better for the "exchange" many of the times than the pari-mutuels. "Exchange" has a takeout of only 12% as well.

Have you checked out the value review.

Here are some of the top ones. Way more than 20%

1st race at remington Park December 11.

Winner goes off at 43-1, great right. Lol

Exchange pays off at 189-1

Allan

GMB@BP
12-24-2017, 12:02 PM
I am just not sure the younger more educated gambler, with many more options about to open up, is going to sit for a model where there is such fluctuation in the odds they are getting on the play.

I think a Betfair style exchange is much more friendly to a serious player.

thaskalos
12-24-2017, 01:23 PM
Put an end to computer-robotic wagering...and this odds-dropping problem is over, IMO. These "bigshots" are already getting rebated to the hilt...why should they also be allowed to place thousands of different wagers at a click of a button at the very end of the betting period?

They say that 20% of the wagering pool comes from computer-robotic wagering; should the 20% gain prominence over the other 80%?

Mc990
12-25-2017, 09:52 AM
Most of the odds changes are just corrections on the win pool inefficiencies... if more bettors referenced the double prices to ascertain probable "off odds", there would be a whole lot less complaining.

dilanesp
12-25-2017, 10:34 AM
Put an end to computer-robotic wagering...and this odds-dropping problem is over, IMO. These "bigshots" are already getting rebated to the hilt...why should they also be allowed to place thousands of different wagers at a click of a button at the very end of the betting period?

They say that 20% of the wagering pool comes from computer-robotic wagering; should the 20% gain prominence over the other 80%?

One idea I have toyed with is shutting off remote betting 1 minute before post but allowing onsite betting, with perhaps a dollar limit, until the gates open.

That would reward people who attend the races live. But current business models at many tracks are so reliant on remote handle that it probably wouldn't work.

dilanesp
12-25-2017, 10:36 AM
Most of the odds changes are just corrections on the win pool inefficiencies... if more bettors referenced the double prices to ascertain probable "off odds", there would be a whole lot less complaining.

I am not certain this is true writ large, but I certainly have seen instances where the double and exacta probables looked closer to what the final odds would be.

thaskalos
12-25-2017, 11:11 AM
Most of the odds changes are just corrections on the win pool inefficiencies... if more bettors referenced the double prices to ascertain probable "off odds", there would be a whole lot less complaining.

The daily-double pools being much smaller than the win pools...how can they be relied upon to be more "predictive" in the forecasting of the "real" win-odds?

Mc990
12-25-2017, 11:30 AM
The daily-double pools being much smaller than the win pools...how can they be relied upon to be more "predictive" in the forecasting of the "real" win-odds?

The win odds on a given horse are mostly commensurate in the multis... 10-15 years ago, maybe not so much. Yes, I understand that there will be more anomalies with smaller pools but if you calculate probable win odds from the doubles, the last second odds drops will be less surprising than just basing it on the board with "X" minutes to post...

Again, it's by no means an exact science but I'd be willing to bet that 90% of the time when someone complains about a drop, it is the price merely coming into line with the double will pays

thaskalos
12-25-2017, 11:34 AM
The win odds on a given horse are mostly commensurate in the multis... 10-15 years ago, maybe not so much. Yes, I understand that there will be more anomalies with smaller pools but if you calculate probable win odds from the doubles, the last second odds drops will be less surprising than just basing it on the board with "X" minutes to post...

Again, it's by no means an exact science but I'd be willing to bet that 90% of the time when someone complains about a drop, it is the price merely coming into line with the double will pays

And I'd be willing to TAKE that bet.

VigorsTheGrey
12-25-2017, 11:49 AM
What percentage of pools are affected by computer-driven arbitrage wagering...? Might these robotic operations be the most likely source of the majority of the last second swings in odds...?

Also, I wonder how deeply affected BetFair is by massive arbitrage wagering schemes...seems like this venue might be more susceptible to these types of robotic operations...

Cholly
12-25-2017, 12:38 PM
The win odds on a given horse are mostly commensurate in the multis... 10-15 years ago, maybe not so much. Yes, I understand that there will be more anomalies with smaller pools but if you calculate probable win odds from the doubles, the last second odds drops will be less surprising than just basing it on the board with "X" minutes to post...

Again, it's by no means an exact science but I'd be willing to bet that 90% of the time when someone complains about a drop, it is the price merely coming into line with the double will pays

This works best if you use the will-pays from the favorite in the previous race; as the odds from the winner in the previous race increase, the predictability becomes less-so.

I only play NYRA, so can't comment on how this works elsewhere. 90%? Maybe a little high. 75%? For sure. When the odds don't move in the direction of the double will-pays, that also tells you something...stable betting or betting from someone who knows something, or THINKS they know something.

Redboard
12-25-2017, 12:47 PM
I understand that odds can change after I make a bet, but I don't understand why the odds are allowed to change after the gate opens. There should be a national law that criminalizes that. Now if the track has to wait one minute for that to happen or 5 minutes, or 10 minutes, so be it. If they open the gate before all bet are calculated, then it comes out of the tracks pocket. That would stop this crap!

The main thing that needs to be stopped here, if a speed horse gets off to a bad start, he's finished and got no shot, in most cases. Being able to past post even 20 seconds is huge. There're been a few guys here in the past bragging about doing this.

biggestal99
12-26-2017, 08:47 AM
Many Many times I see the favorite trading on Betfair exchange at 2.50 (3-2) yet the horse is sitting at 2-1 on the tote. I laugh at the naivety of the bettors who think they are going to get 2-1 on the horse. Always gets bet down like 100% of the time.

Betfair exchange odds are much more accurate indication of the off odds 2 MTP.

Allan

biggestal99
12-26-2017, 02:41 PM
Many Many times I see the favorite trading on Betfair exchange at 2.50 (3-2) yet the horse is sitting at 2-1 on the tote. I laugh at the naivety of the bettors who think they are going to get 2-1 on the horse. Always gets bet down like 100% of the time.

Betfair exchange odds are much more accurate indication of the off odds 2 MTP.

Allan
Okay. the acid test.

1st at Sunland 12/26/2017 Two minutes to post

5 horses. The 1 horse was scratched

Betfair odds

2---38
3---6
4---4
5---5-2
6---9-5

Tote odds

2---5
3---5-2
4---2
5---3
6---3

and the off odds

2--25
3--5-2
4--2
5--3
8--8-5

Allan

GMB@BP
12-26-2017, 03:48 PM
Okay. the acid test.

1st at Sunland 12/26/2017 Two minutes to post

5 horses. The 1 horse was scratched

Betfair odds

2---38
3---6
4---4
5---5-2
6---9-5

Tote odds

2---5
3---5-2
4---2
5---3
6---3

and the off odds

2--25
3--5-2
4--2
5--3
8--8-5

Allan

and they all look liked great values based on that

lamboguy
12-26-2017, 04:03 PM
And I'd be willing to TAKE that bet.
i want half your bet!

Tom
12-26-2017, 04:28 PM
i want half your bet!

But two minutes after you two make that bet, it drops from 90% to 60%! :lol:

thespaah
12-26-2017, 08:12 PM
How is the betting exchange in New Jersey able to pull off in-race betting, even during the stretch run...?

How can the computer networks process the bets in so short a time when most video feeds have delays built into them.?

The Exchange wagers are not placed using the track and satellite wagering servers.
For normal PM wagering there are several betting outlets. All go to a hub. The hub then sends the bets to the host track. The host track mutuel computers then must reconcile the wagers. Only then are the odds, pool totals displayed on the infield tote and the monitors through out the respective plant.
At least in reading info on here, this is my understanding of how the wagers are processed.

thespaah
12-26-2017, 08:17 PM
Right, but it sounds like his complaint is that the odds dropped after he bet.

I understand the perception problem with odds dropping during the running, but I've never heard a call for betting to close 1 minute prior. Maybe I've missed it.

Long time ago, NYRA closed betting when the display indicating "Minutes to Post reached "0".
The horses may have not started loading yet. It didn't matter.
Also, in those days. There were signs everywhere that clearly stated "once the patron leaves the betting window, all bets are final".
Today, on line bettors can cancel wagers up to the bell. And in turn bet the bell.
That huge volume of wagers made up to the last possible moment take time to be processed. Hence the time lag in displaying the odds and pool totals ot the public.

thespaah
12-26-2017, 08:22 PM
Today's computers can process information almost instantly. They are close to coming up with computer driven driver-less cars. You can place an order on the New York stock exchange or a wager on a race seconds before the race goes off and after you hit send, the order goes through almost instantly. To think there is nothing wrong with this shows age, a lack of today's computer abilities or both. I hope that doesn't come off as an insult because it is not meant to be. Are the people calculating the odds using an abacus?? Its called technology and there is no excuse for this. I would not have wagered what I did if the horse was closer to 4-1 instead of 11-1 at post time. For theodds to change twice during a 5 furlong sprint is ridiculous. It isn't difficult USING MODERN TECHNOLOGY to update the odds every 30 seconds especially close to post time. By the way, significant for me is a $50(not enough to cause the drop in odds) win bet instead of the usual $10-15 plus a few smaller exotics and my win bet was placed after the first horse was loaded. I wager the same amount every day and try to be disciplined in my betting but sometimes when I think I am getting a great price, I go against what I usually wager so I am not a big fish but the blue collar guy racing doesn't really care about.

Great idea. Costs A LOT of money for the computer systems. Also, tons of money would have to be spent creating a fiber optic cable backbone.
The financial exchanges can afford the technology.
My guess is this technology is not in the budgets of most race tracks.

thespaah
12-26-2017, 08:27 PM
Let's assume its instantaneous. Youre still in the same boat, you only learn of it quicker. If you're playing a last second game against the whales, it's tough for you to win.

If I played substantial money in this sport, I'd be demanding equal treatment for all bettors. It seems to me that the rebates, and huge rebates to whales,takes more money from smart players than anything else.

My perception is A) the whales expect preferential treatment.
B) If the perks stopped, the whales would find something else on which to bet their money.
If the whales pull their money from US based horse racing, the tracks all close. Period.

thespaah
12-26-2017, 08:33 PM
Put an end to computer-robotic wagering...and this odds-dropping problem is over, IMO. These "bigshots" are already getting rebated to the hilt...why should they also be allowed to place thousands of different wagers at a click of a button at the very end of the betting period?

They say that 20% of the wagering pool comes from computer-robotic wagering; should the 20% gain prominence over the other 80%?

I would be willing to go out on a limb and say that perhaps 3/4's of the handle is that of the whales.

Lemon Drop Husker
12-26-2017, 08:57 PM
We all know this is happening.

Many of us still play.

And we are still bitching. :cool:

Ian Meyers
12-26-2017, 09:44 PM
I would be willing to go out on a limb and say that perhaps 3/4's of the handle is that of the whales.


You better hope that limb is sturdy. You are way off. Nowhere near that high a %.

cj
12-26-2017, 09:47 PM
Should be interesting what comes of the investigation into the late P4 and P5 payoffs at SA today.

https://twitter.com/BH_JBalan/status/945844550509010944

Ian Meyers
12-26-2017, 09:56 PM
I've posted this many time before over the years but here goes again.

There is no money bet after the bell, other than the occasional issue of a track/pool not closing. I say occasional in that it happens less than 10 or 20 times a year that I've seen and that's with all the races being run in North America.

The phenomenon you see is related to the fact that guest site wagers (simulcast outlets, OTBs, ADWs, etc.) are NOT streamed continuously, they are batched and sent. How often that happens is dependent upon the host track, the host track's toe company, available bandwidth, etc. If you looked at the time stamp of wagers that hit a host pool at the off (and I have) you'd see bets that were made at the guest sites 60-90 seconds before that in many instances. This has gotten better over the years but the NYSE it ain't.

As far as the type of horses that get bet down the most, of course it's the logical contenders. The CAW models are very, very good at predicting the most like winners in each race and typically those are the kind of horses experiencing late odds drops. I don't know how many times someone has told me "I made that horse at MNR, DEL, TuP, etc 3/5 and he was 6/5 at post time so I bet him and he won and paid $3. If YOU can identify him as the most likely winner don't you think the sharps can too?

I'm not saying there's not a lot of problems with the game that needs fixing, but money being wagered after the gate opens isn't one of them.

Ian Meyers
12-26-2017, 10:00 PM
Should be interesting what comes of the investigation into the late P4 and P5 payoffs at SA today.

https://twitter.com/BH_JBalan/status/945844550509010944

I have thought for many years that the vulnerabilities in the scan bets (exploited in the BC Fix Six) have not been completed patched. That is my opinion, and however educated it may be, I do not know that for a fact.

Poindexter
12-26-2017, 10:37 PM
Should be interesting what comes of the investigation into the late P4 and P5 payoffs at SA today.

https://twitter.com/BH_JBalan/status/945844550509010944

What was suspicious about the will pays on the late pick 4/pick 5 at Santa Anita? Most pick 5's were paying about 8 to 11 times what most pick 4's were playing. I must be missing something, but sure not seeing it.

Lemon Drop Husker
12-26-2017, 10:49 PM
What was suspicious about the will pays on the late pick 4/pick 5 at Santa Anita? Most pick 5's were paying about 8 to 11 times what most pick 4's were playing. I must be missing something, but sure not seeing it.

Sooo... Stronach is going to investigate their own?

WTF am I missing here?

thespaah
12-26-2017, 11:49 PM
You better hope that limb is sturdy. You are way off. Nowhere near that high a %.

Ok what's your guess.?
Is it your contention that the handle is driven by the $2.00 to $50 per race bettors?

cj
12-26-2017, 11:57 PM
What was suspicious about the will pays on the late pick 4/pick 5 at Santa Anita? Most pick 5's were paying about 8 to 11 times what most pick 4's were playing. I must be missing something, but sure not seeing it.

They were way too low. It almost assuredly had to do with the late scratch in the last race after the P4/P5 pools were closed.

Ian Meyers
12-27-2017, 12:05 AM
Ok what's your guess.?
Is it your contention that the handle is driven by the $2.00 to $50 per race bettors?

I won't say publicly what I think it is.

I am a consultant to both ADWs and large teams so I have a pretty good idea what's a realistic guess (because no one can say with 100% certainty) but there's no benefit to me discussing it publicly, other than to say 75% is much too high. It's significantly less than 50%.

That's all I'm going to say about it.

outofthebox
12-27-2017, 09:45 AM
They were way too low. It almost assuredly had to do with the late scratch in the last race after the P4/P5 pools were closed.I blame it on TFUS who came a 1/2 length short of sweeping the late pick 4..:)

thespaah
12-27-2017, 10:55 AM
I won't say publicly what I think it is.

I am a consultant to both ADWs and large teams so I have a pretty good idea what's a realistic guess (because no one can say with 100% certainty) but there's no benefit to me discussing it publicly, other than to say 75% is much too high. It's significantly less than 50%.

That's all I'm going to say about it.

Whats the big secret?
See, its this kind of opaqueness in this business that helps create the perception that there is always something to hide.
Now, this is not personal. Take it as you wish.
I cannot understand why anyone with knowledge of a particular subject would quickly respond with "you're wrong, but due to ( fill in the blank) I cannot divulge. Just believe what I tell you".
That does not butter the toast.
Either provide the WHOLE answer, or let it go and don't respond.
Using pure logic here. There are large volume players and wagering syndicates that have been mentioned on this very website that wager millions of dollars per year.
Also, I pay close attention to tote board numbers.
A perfect example of where I get my perception of the whales driving the handle is this.
I'm at a track in NY. Typically the WPS handle DOUBLES or even TRIPLES within one minute to post time. And because many of the large volume players prefer to "hide" their wagers from the public, they are wagering at the last moment of the betting period. "Betting the bell".
So, if the everyday joe is making the handle larger, then why are the lines at the windows not 12 miles long? Or since the number of smaller bets coming in from off site venues required to create such significant numbers are being placed virtually simultaneously, would this not create a significant lag in the collection of data or even crash servers?
I must ask these questions because of the rather cryptic nature of your explanation.

dilanesp
12-27-2017, 11:50 AM
I won't say publicly what I think it is.

I am a consultant to both ADWs and large teams so I have a pretty good idea what's a realistic guess (because no one can say with 100% certainty) but there's no benefit to me discussing it publicly, other than to say 75% is much too high. It's significantly less than 50%.

That's all I'm going to say about it.

That doesn't surprise me. There are plenty of "regular horseplayers" who bet a decent amount but are not whales. Some post on this board.

If it was all whales, online bet shops like tvg and xpressbet wouldn't be successful, because whales go to rebate shops.

Ian Meyers
12-27-2017, 12:50 PM
Whats the big secret?
See, its this kind of opaqueness in this business that helps create the perception that there is always something to hide.
Now, this is not personal. Take it as you wish.
I cannot understand why anyone with knowledge of a particular subject would quickly respond with "you're wrong, but due to ( fill in the blank) I cannot divulge. Just believe what I tell you".
That does not butter the toast.
Either provide the WHOLE answer, or let it go and don't respond.
Using pure logic here. There are large volume players and wagering syndicates that have been mentioned on this very website that wager millions of dollars per year.
Also, I pay close attention to tote board numbers.
A perfect example of where I get my perception of the whales driving the handle is this.
I'm at a track in NY. Typically the WPS handle DOUBLES or even TRIPLES within one minute to post time. And because many of the large volume players prefer to "hide" their wagers from the public, they are wagering at the last moment of the betting period. "Betting the bell".
So, if the everyday joe is making the handle larger, then why are the lines at the windows not 12 miles long? Or since the number of smaller bets coming in from off site venues required to create such significant numbers are being placed virtually simultaneously, would this not create a significant lag in the collection of data or even crash servers?
I must ask these questions because of the rather cryptic nature of your explanation.


1. Others have paid me for those type of insights. It would be unfair to give away that research for free.

2. I never said it is the $2 bettor that is driving handle. It's no secret that it's not. Many causal fans have been driven out of the game. That's a problem now and will be a bigger problem going forward. I do believe that the change related to W2Gs is or should be a big positive influence to the casual player.

3. I'm not disputing a large % of CAW handle is made very late in the wagering cycle. It's not all of it though, despite what you may have heard. I also believe it's very important to differentiate wagers made late but before the gates open and those wagers that are past-posted. There are more than a few on this board (and others) that do not make that distinction and claim that there is a great deal of handle being past-posted. That is simply not the case.

4. As far as lines at the windows, 90% of handle now comes in from off-site. That's across all tracks. When you factor in higher on-track handle at SAR, KEE, DMR,etc it's probably like 91-92% for other tracks. Hence, no long lines at the windows. That time has come and gone.

5. I rarely post these days. Typically when I do it's to correct egregious misinformation. This game has enough problems. There's no reason for people to distort the truth to make it seem worse than it is. Again that's nothing personal. I'm sure you believe CAW handle is 3/4 of the total. Maybe you've read that here or elsewhere in cyberspace. I just didn't want anyone else seeing that figure and believing it too, or worse yet spreading that. CAW teams are not betting $7 billion a year. If there were a dozen large teams they'd each be betting on average $600 million a year. Is that what people really think? I can tell you there are zero teams betting $600mm a year into our pools let alone a dozen of them.

alydar
12-27-2017, 01:07 PM
I think that Ian is spot on regarding the whole past post issue. I am convinced that there are very few instances where betting has taken place after the gates have opened. It does happen, but it is very unusual due to some malfunction, and not some common conspiracy.

I have believed for a long time that betting should be halted at a specific time. There could be a countdown clock that clearly told everyone when betting stops. This would help, but not cure the problem of large odd changes. At least bettors would know what the odds were prior to the start. I know how frustrating it is to see what you thought was a 5/2 bet come down to 3/5. That would still happen, but at least it would be before the race has started, which would at least make it appear more legitimate.

As far as whale betting goes, I think that the real percentage is somewhere between 25 and 30%. That percentage varies by track too.

cj
12-27-2017, 01:40 PM
I don't think there are people betting after the bell, but I'm not convinced people aren't being allowed to cancel after the bell.

lamboguy
12-27-2017, 02:05 PM
there is AFTER THE BELL betting going on for sure in many harness tracks right now in 2017 and probably in 2018. The Red Mile has about 25 customers that only play the bell.`The Red Mile has live video feeds. Dover and Harrington have after the bell betting but only on their own product.

does it happen in Thoroughbreds? probably but i have no idea where it takes place so i am not so sure about it. it does not happen in any large onshore ADW at all. i don't have any idea about the offshore ones.

the only thing i know is that whenever money is on the line, there is always someone there trying to get it. if you know how to call the break, you can't lose.

Fager Fan
12-27-2017, 02:22 PM
I won't say publicly what I think it is.

I am a consultant to both ADWs and large teams so I have a pretty good idea what's a realistic guess (because no one can say with 100% certainty) but there's no benefit to me discussing it publicly, other than to say 75% is much too high. It's significantly less than 50%.

That's all I'm going to say about it.

It's about 15%, and from a shockingly low number of whales.

deelo
12-27-2017, 06:03 PM
Pretty difficult to beat the computer syndicates when my system says i have value at 5/1 0 mtp and he loads at 4/1, enters the stretch at 3/1, and crosses the finish line at 2/1. Getting real difficult unless you only play large pools.

Poindexter
12-27-2017, 06:24 PM
It's about 15%, and from a shockingly low number of whales.

If it is only 15% of mutual handle and the decision makers are letting this sport become practically unbettable to many to cater to a small group of bettors contiributing only 15% of the pools, then words cannot describe how empty headed the decision makers of this sport are and have been.

If the figure is indeed only 15%, they could eliminate rebates today and have a more successful sport in 2 years without even lowering takeout.

The figure has to be at least 30% and likely closer to 40%.

AltonKelsey
12-27-2017, 06:41 PM
If it is only 15% of mutual handle and the decision makers are letting this sport become practically unbettable to many to cater to a small group of bettors contiributing only 15% of the pools, then words cannot describe how empty headed the decision makers of this sport are and have been.

If the figure is indeed only 15%, they could eliminate rebates today and have a more successful sport in 2 years without even lowering takeout.

The figure has to be at least 30% and likely closer to 40%.


I doubt it's only 15% . If that were the case, you wouldn't have the big influx of late money in all the pools. The average Joe is not waiting till the last flash to bet.

Not sure its as high as 40% though. My guess, 20-25 at the majors, maybe a bit higher, as they aren't just betting one horse, but spreading it around.

Fager Fan
12-27-2017, 06:58 PM
If it is only 15% of mutual handle and the decision makers are letting this sport become practically unbettable to many to cater to a small group of bettors contiributing only 15% of the pools, then words cannot describe how empty headed the decision makers of this sport are and have been.

If the figure is indeed only 15%, they could eliminate rebates today and have a more successful sport in 2 years without even lowering takeout.

The figure has to be at least 30% and likely closer to 40%.

I'm googling for the article I'd read that said 15-18%, but not found yet. I've found this one that says 20%+.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/high-volume-players/

Poindexter
12-27-2017, 08:07 PM
I'm googling for the article I'd read that said 15-18%, but not found yet. I've found this one that says 20%+.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/high-volume-players/

Very good article you quoted. Especially like this excerpt

The numbers speak for themselves. In 2003, $15.1 billion was wagered on U.S. racing. Twelve years later in 2015, with the major high-volume teams pumping their millions into the pools, handle had fallen to $10.6 billion. And that is despite an infusion into the U.S. betting pools by the computer players that is estimated to be in the area of $2.5 billion annually. It is also important to consider that a track retains a lower commission from a bet from a huge player because of the rebate and other discounts involved than it does off of you and me.


So basically racing decision makers, because of stupidity, have tried catering to a tiny group of whales, who only contribute 20% of the current volume or thereabouts and managed to lose 30% of their handle over 12 years in the process. It has evolved to this at a time when anybody anywhere has a at the palm of their hand a tool to make a bet at any track, any time and anywhere. Should we even factor in the value of the dollar between 2003 and 2015?

Meanwhile, they twiddle their thumbs, horseplayers get more and more frustrated (the point of this thread) and continue dropping out. Those of us iwho continue playing the game have a hard time making any straight bet with any confidence because we just assume that the horse will drop in odds late whether he does or not(I have gotten to the point where if a horse is less than 6-1, I assume that the value that he appear to be as they are loading the gate likely will not remain after off with very few exceptions). IF he wins at an inflated price I pretty much have to deal with it.

You know there actually was a time that you could make a bet on a horse at 5/2 as they were loading the gate and 9/5 was about the lowest you would see in most circumstances(unless the 5/2 was ridiculously inflated). Now horses can go from 5/2 to 6/5 or 6-1 to 3-1 or 2-1 to 7/5 of 6/5 to 3/5 in just about every race. We can't take advantage of the fact that a horse should be 15-1 jumps form 15-1 to 30-1 because the race has already gone off when that odds change occurs. I personally am so close to just reverting to only pick 4's and pick 5's, I cannot tell you. The game is extremely fun when you have some idea of what your odds are going to be. But that just is not the reality in todays betting world. This sport has no chance of building itself up if people betting have no idea what odds they are going to get. The people that don't care are not likely going to provide any significant amount of long term handle.

To those show think that double probable and exacta probables are going to shed light on what a horse will go off at. If they do thanit certainly isn't very hard for racing to provide that information to its fan base.

Horse, odds as 2nd leg in double, odds as first leg in double, oddds on top in exacta, odds as 2nd horse in exacta........It would be a very easy for them to provide that info for everyone and then we can see if it helps. Why do we have to set up our own spreadsheets to do this. They should want us spending time formulating bets not wasting our time pasting the probable onto a spreadsheet.




.

dilanesp
12-27-2017, 08:07 PM
I doubt it's only 15% . If that were the case, you wouldn't have the big influx of late money in all the pools. The average Joe is not waiting till the last flash to bet.

Not sure its as high as 40% though. My guess, 20-25 at the majors, maybe a bit higher, as they aren't just betting one horse, but spreading it around.

Not sll the late money is whales. Some of it is satellite betting sites with slow uplink, and even a bit of money bet at the last second on track.

lamboguy
12-27-2017, 08:57 PM
thanks for the clarification

Poindexter
12-27-2017, 09:32 PM
I was rushing at the end of my last post:lol::lol::lol::lol:. Here is how the last 2 paragraphs should have read. Sorry about that.

To those who think that double probables and exacta probables are going to shed light on what a horse will go off at, perhaps you are right. If they do than it certainly isn't very hard for racing to provide that information to its fan base.

Horse, odds as 2nd leg in double, odds as first leg in double, odds on top in exacta, odds as 2nd horse in exacta........It would be a very easy for racing to provide that info for everyone and then we can see if it helps us gauge the likely price of a horse prior to the race going off. The whales have this info, why shouldn't the masses? Why do we have to set up our own spreadsheets to do this? Racing should want us spending time formulating bets not wasting our time pasting the probables onto a spreadsheet so we can get this information if we want it. It is just a feature that would help the fan make a more educated wager. If you bet a horse at 3-1 who shows as 8/5 in the 2nd leg of the double and 9/5 in the first leg of the double and 2-1 on top of the exacta, it would be sort of stupid to assume you will get 3-1 on him. But it is up to racing to provide this info to the horse player.

dilanesp
12-27-2017, 11:56 PM
I was rushing at the end of my last post:lol::lol::lol::lol:. Here is how the last 2 paragraphs should have read. Sorry about that.

To those who think that double probables and exacta probables are going to shed light on what a horse will go off at, perhaps you are right. If they do than it certainly isn't very hard for racing to provide that information to its fan base.

Horse, odds as 2nd leg in double, odds as first leg in double, odds on top in exacta, odds as 2nd horse in exacta........It would be a very easy for racing to provide that info for everyone and then we can see if it helps us gauge the likely price of a horse prior to the race going off. The whales have this info, why shouldn't the masses? Why do we have to set up our own spreadsheets to do this? Racing should want us spending time formulating bets not wasting our time pasting the probables onto a spreadsheet so we can get this information if we want it. It is just a feature that would help the fan make a more educated wager. If you bet a horse at 3-1 who shows as 8/5 in the 2nd leg of the double and 9/5 in the first leg of the double and 2-1 on top of the exacta, it would be sort of stupid to assume you will get 3-1 on him. But it is up to racing to provide this info to the horse player.

I think we established in an earlier thread that the whales do not get any exotic pool information other than what is available to everyone.

Poindexter
12-28-2017, 01:59 AM
I think we established in an earlier thread that the whales do not get any exotic pool information other than what is available to everyone.

You are misunderstanding my post.This isn't about info that has not hit the toteboard yet, this is about different ways of estimating how what a horse will go off at. Lets take the 6/5 number 6 horse. In the daily doubles the probables
are for $2
1-6 $12
2-6 $25
3-6 $13
4-6 $21
5-6 $45
6-6 $51
7-6 $99

To estimate how much the 6 is in leg 2 of the double you basically have to calculate how much it would have cost you to get back $100. So(i am just rounding in my head)
1-6 8.33333 x
2-6 4x
3-6 7.7x
4-6 4.8x
5-6 2.2 x
6-6 2 x
7-6 1 x

so to get back $100 we would have to play about 30 combos or $60. So essentially the horse was about a 2/3 shot in the doubles.

You can do the same with the double pools starting in this race, but of course the odds are constantly changing.

At the end of the day we have something like this at 1 minute to post.

#6 6/5, 2/3ddleg2, 4/5 ddleg1, 1-1 exacta on top.

Based off of this information the public now has a fairly good idea that they likely will not see 6/5 on this horse as a closing price.

The daily double leg 2 pool is closed so this never changes, but the other 3 pools are constantly updating. It would take very little for the racetracks to give patrons this extra information so they have a lot better idea what the horse likely will pay, assuming a couple of the posters above are correct.

We can do it ourselves, but to do so we have to design a spreadsheet and constantly paste the updated probables or know how to program the spreadsheet to update itself. But it is too much work for 99 out of 100 people amd it takes them away from doing what they should be doing-strategizing their betting.

All I am saying is that I assume whales take all this into account when projecting the final odds to make their betting decisions with the aid of their computers, so why not provide a helpful tool to help the public make more informed betting decisions since they are the victims of all these late odds changes.

MonmouthParkJoe
12-28-2017, 07:15 AM
1. Others have paid me for those type of insights. It would be unfair to give away that research for free.

2. I never said it is the $2 bettor that is driving handle. It's no secret that it's not. Many causal fans have been driven out of the game. That's a problem now and will be a bigger problem going forward. I do believe that the change related to W2Gs is or should be a big positive influence to the casual player.

3. I'm not disputing a large % of CAW handle is made very late in the wagering cycle. It's not all of it though, despite what you may have heard. I also believe it's very important to differentiate wagers made late but before the gates open and those wagers that are past-posted. There are more than a few on this board (and others) that do not make that distinction and claim that there is a great deal of handle being past-posted. That is simply not the case.

4. As far as lines at the windows, 90% of handle now comes in from off-site. That's across all tracks. When you factor in higher on-track handle at SAR, KEE, DMR,etc it's probably like 91-92% for other tracks. Hence, no long lines at the windows. That time has come and gone.

5. I rarely post these days. Typically when I do it's to correct egregious misinformation. This game has enough problems. There's no reason for people to distort the truth to make it seem worse than it is. Again that's nothing personal. I'm sure you believe CAW handle is 3/4 of the total. Maybe you've read that here or elsewhere in cyberspace. I just didn't want anyone else seeing that figure and believing it too, or worse yet spreading that. CAW teams are not betting $7 billion a year. If there were a dozen large teams they'd each be betting on average $600 million a year. Is that what people really think? I can tell you there are zero teams betting $600mm a year into our pools let alone a dozen of them.

This right here :ThmbUp:

vegasone
12-28-2017, 11:03 AM
Seems to me that it wouldn't matter if you capped betting one minute to post, perception perhaps but you still wouldn't know what the final odds were when you bet, they would just change before the race went off. You would still complain that you didn't get the odds you thought you were getting etc. Maybe would just make you feel better that "probably" someone wasn't cheating but maybe not. That last second betting is still going to throw you off.


People betting the market pay a fortune to be nearer the market so their betting signal gets there faster. it is a never ending battle and not likely the racing people will spend tons of money to fix something that will probably not change things much.

ultracapper
12-28-2017, 12:22 PM
I would pay good money to be able to just cancel a bet 15 seconds into the race. That is one mighty powerful option that seems to be available in some form or another.

Mc990
12-28-2017, 01:03 PM
I was rushing at the end of my last post:lol::lol::lol::lol:. Here is how the last 2 paragraphs should have read. Sorry about that.

To those who think that double probables and exacta probables are going to shed light on what a horse will go off at, perhaps you are right. If they do than it certainly isn't very hard for racing to provide that information to its fan base.

Horse, odds as 2nd leg in double, odds as first leg in double, odds on top in exacta, odds as 2nd horse in exacta........It would be a very easy for racing to provide that info for everyone and then we can see if it helps us gauge the likely price of a horse prior to the race going off. The whales have this info, why shouldn't the masses? Why do we have to set up our own spreadsheets to do this? Racing should want us spending time formulating bets not wasting our time pasting the probables onto a spreadsheet so we can get this information if we want it. It is just a feature that would help the fan make a more educated wager. If you bet a horse at 3-1 who shows as 8/5 in the 2nd leg of the double and 9/5 in the first leg of the double and 2-1 on top of the exacta, it would be sort of stupid to assume you will get 3-1 on him. But it is up to racing to provide this info to the horse player.

I don't think the exacta probables are any better of a gauge than the win pool is... what's to prevent those payouts from being slashed at the bell as well?

Regarding the double will pays, isn't this info widely available? If a player can't take a look at the will pays and get a reasonable read on the closing odds for a given horse then maybe they have no business in the pools in the first place...

To assume we can't deduce approximate win pool odds from the will pays is to admit there are consistent market ineffencincies, which I don't believe to be the case.

dilanesp
12-28-2017, 02:18 PM
Seems to me that it wouldn't matter if you capped betting one minute to post, perception perhaps but you still wouldn't know what the final odds were when you bet, they would just change before the race went off. You would still complain that you didn't get the odds you thought you were getting etc. Maybe would just make you feel better that "probably" someone wasn't cheating but maybe not. That last second betting is still going to throw you off.


People betting the market pay a fortune to be nearer the market so their betting signal gets there faster. it is a never ending battle and not likely the racing people will spend tons of money to fix something that will probably not change things much.

One thing you could do is stop it at a random time between 0 and 2 minutes before post. Then the whales could never time it.

Poindexter
12-28-2017, 02:36 PM
I don't think the exacta probables are any better of a gauge than the win pool is... what's to prevent those payouts from being slashed at the bell as well?

Yes, but that doesn't mean the extra information can't help you better gauge the projected odds of a horse.


Regarding the double will pays, isn't this info widely available? If a player can't take a look at the will pays and get a reasonable read on the closing odds for a given horse then maybe they have no business in the pools in the first place...

Yes if you take your stance that the only thing that matters is the incoming double pool. I think that the exacta probables and outgoing doubles play a part in the equation as well. Since they are ever changing, we hardly have time to recalculate them every minute and get in our bets in all of the pools. If this information was provided for us, it would take only a glance. Also newbies need to be educated. Most aren't going to realize that they can peek at the double pools to have an indication of what their horse might pay. Moreover they likely would not have a clue how to interpret the information. Racing has to build a business by educating it's patrons not snubbing them.

Right now I think the education they are getting is if there how wins they get paid 7/5 when they bet them at 2-1 or they lose. Hardly entices people to want to come back again.



To assume we can't deduce approximate win pool odds from the will pays is to admit there are consistent market ineffencincies, which I don't believe to be the case.


See above.

Gentz
12-28-2017, 03:03 PM
It's not a case of updating the odds...it's a case of having all these simulcast sites sending in their wagers to the host track instantly...something that doesn't happen currently.

The host track can't update the odds if it doesn't have accurate pool info. And it can't have accurate pool info until all the money is in.

Therein lies the problem.

This is the problem exactly!

AltonKelsey
12-29-2017, 02:58 PM
One thing you could do is stop it at a random time between 0 and 2 minutes before post. Then the whales could never time it.


Ok. Then the whales would be forced to bet at the 2 minute mark, but any time after that you don't know if you could get the bet in or not.

Maybe a better solution would be to prohibit computerized batch betting in the last 60 seconds. Don't know how you would enforce it though, since it happens at the ADW side.

AndyC
12-29-2017, 03:15 PM
....Regarding the double will pays, isn't this info widely available? If a player can't take a look at the will pays and get a reasonable read on the closing odds for a given horse then maybe they have no business in the pools in the first place...

To assume we can't deduce approximate win pool odds from the will pays is to admit there are consistent market inefficiencies, which I don't believe to be the case.

Wouldn't you expect market inefficiencies when the DD pools are typically (at SA) about 10% of the W-P-S pools? And a DD has 100 will-pays given fields of 10 in each race. Seems there would be many instances where DD payoffs would be skewed versus the win odds. But I agree that it is better than not knowing.

dilanesp
12-29-2017, 04:40 PM
Ok. Then the whales would be forced to bet at the 2 minute mark, but any time after that you don't know if you could get the bet in or not.

Maybe a better solution would be to prohibit computerized batch betting in the last 60 seconds. Don't know how you would enforce it though, since it happens at the ADW side.

You just need different cut offs for different sources. Technologically, it is easy. The problem is that that it would probably cost some handle and tracks wouldn't want to give that up.

senortout
12-29-2017, 11:05 PM
I believe it was CD that made a valiant attempt to close betting at post time. Not only did customers complain about being shut out, but the handle was noticeably impacted. Hard to ask a business to take steps that will reduce revenues.

Tony you said Churchill made a valiant effort to stop wagering at post time but went back to their old ways when betters compained? This strongly implies that they allow betting after the gates have opened. Barring any malfuntion, this does not happen. While on the subject which is complex, consider some things we at home could do to make ourselves sharply aware of how things work...and here's my suggestion!
1. If you are using an ADW, get the betting totals just as the gates are being loaded...keep it simple for now, just the win, place and show totals. A little searching on the ADW site and you can easily find these. Next, after the race is over, retake these same w-p-s totals. The difference,(roughly accurate depending on when the first totals are taken) should open your eyes. It should be a real eye-opener since up to now a lot of us think the last total won't be that much more that the first one.

ALL THE LATE MONEY, OR A HUGE PORTION OF IT, AT LEAST, IS FLUSHED INTO THE POOLS TOO LATE FOR US TO DO A THING ABOUT IT. Somewhere at a bush track, MOST OF THE MONEY BET, BY FAR, COMES FROM OFF-TRACK. Making that 'juicy' 3-1 shot you've worked so hard on, 6/5 or less.
Or not....perhaps your handicapping has failed you and the horse swings in the other direction. THAT HAS HAPPENED TO ME, IN NEARLY THE SAME RATIO. Also suprisingly, I win a few of these 'failures'

So, learn to trust yourself and things will come out in the wash, in the end. Except, please, and now I'm talking to you, Gulfstream Park, lets get my ponies to the gate on time. Every time. Its gotten so bad that if I am playing two tracks and one has a 5:30 post and GS Park has a 5:28 post I usually bet the 5:30 post before going to Gulfstream and betting there.

AltonKelsey
12-30-2017, 12:21 AM
You just need different cut offs for different sources. Technologically, it is easy. The problem is that that it would probably cost some handle and tracks wouldn't want to give that up.

I wasn't thinking of shutting off the entire ADW, just the batch aspect. No way to prevent a big win bet, just the mass betting of exacta's and other exotics at the bell.

90% of the time , these bet downs were never going to go off at the 'teaser' price anyhow. These people that think they divined a 2-1 shot that goes to 1-1, have no clue.

thespaah
12-31-2017, 05:02 PM
That doesn't surprise me. There are plenty of "regular horseplayers" who bet a decent amount but are not whales. Some post on this board.

If it was all whales, online bet shops like tvg and xpressbet wouldn't be successful, because whales go to rebate shops.
"If it was all whales, online bet shops like tvg and xpressbet wouldn't be successful, because whales go to rebate shops."
That is precisely my point..
Now let us suppose for a moment that all of the host tracks decided to add a fee that would make the rebates a wash. Did not NYRA do this? Add some kind of fee that made the rebates a lot less lucrative?
Just what would happen to handle? The whales and other larger volume bettors would eventually find other wagering opportunities. Handle would do what?
Increase? Decrease? Stay flat?
I believe overall handle would decrease at an alarmingly high percentage.
If the opposite were true, then why would the ADW's offer rebates in the first place? If the whales are not driving the bulk of the handle, why offer them a perk?
Notwithstanding the learned OP's input, no matter what he claims oto know, Unless someone can prove it, I think he's wrong.
Look, as a business owner, why would I offer a perk to anyone that contributes no more or no less to my bottom line?
I wouldn't.
Lets just say I sell turf irrigation equipment.
I have one large customer. That business is say a golf course. They are 25% of my revenue. The other 75% are small regular customers.
One day the golf course general manager shows up in my office. He asks me for a 5% discount off everything he buys.
Now, Do I say "no", negotiate the asking price downward, or do I cave and give him what he wants?
In my world, I tell him, let me sit on it.
After looking at the marketplace, I am one of two irrigation supply houses in the area. Otherwise, he must buy on line. The other company, 50 miles away, isn't going to drop his prices to anyone.
Can I do without the golf course? It would be tough, but i could have my accountant take care of it and I can market my company. Would the GM of that golf club take his business elsewhere? Maybe. Not probable..
I tell him there will be no discount on your first dollar. Spend X dollars and I will consider doing something.

thespaah
12-31-2017, 05:32 PM
I would pay good money to be able to just cancel a bet 15 seconds into the race. That is one mighty powerful option that seems to be available in some form or another.

No way..That would be patently unjust.
When do we get to the point where we ultimately have to accept responsibility for our actions?
In what number of places do we draw the line in the sand until we get to the line in the sand?.....
Why 15 seconds? Why not make it at the top pf the stretch?

dilanesp
12-31-2017, 06:08 PM
thespaah:

To understand why rebates are the way they are, take a look at airlines. Airlines do a great job of selling the same flight to a leisure traveler for $150 and a business traveler for $650. You make maximum profits this way, and airlines, like racetracks, are a low margin business.

Rebates allow racetracks the ability to charge bettors who care about takeout less without doing general takeout reductions.

By the way, all businesses do a certain amount of this. For instance, supermarket coupons are a form of this- if you care about saving money, you clip the coupons. There is nothing disreputable about it.

thespaah
12-31-2017, 06:27 PM
Seems to me that it wouldn't matter if you capped betting one minute to post, perception perhaps but you still wouldn't know what the final odds were when you bet, they would just change before the race went off. You would still complain that you didn't get the odds you thought you were getting etc. Maybe would just make you feel better that "probably" someone wasn't cheating but maybe not. That last second betting is still going to throw you off.


People betting the market pay a fortune to be nearer the market so their betting signal gets there faster. it is a never ending battle and not likely the racing people will spend tons of money to fix something that will probably not change things much.

Changing odds are in integral part of pair-mutuel wagering.
No matter when the betting is closed, the odds may change before or shortly after the race begins.

thespaah
12-31-2017, 06:29 PM
thespaah:

To understand why rebates are the way they are, take a look at airlines. Airlines do a great job of selling the same flight to a leisure traveler for $150 and a business traveler for $650. You make maximum profits this way, and airlines, like racetracks, are a low margin business.

Rebates allow racetracks the ability to charge bettors who care about takeout less without doing general takeout reductions.

By the way, all businesses do a certain amount of this. For instance, supermarket coupons are a form of this- if you care about saving money, you clip the coupons. There is nothing disreputable about it.

You forget one important aspect. Both businesses Airline and racing charge fees that guarantee some return.

dollarsuperfinder
12-31-2017, 06:34 PM
:confused:

green80
12-31-2017, 06:35 PM
thespaah:

To understand why rebates are the way they are, take a look at airlines. Airlines do a great job of selling the same flight to a leisure traveler for $150 and a business traveler for $650. You make maximum profits this way, and airlines, like racetracks, are a low margin business.

Rebates allow racetracks the ability to charge bettors who care about takeout less without doing general takeout reductions.

By the way, all businesses do a certain amount of this. For instance, supermarket coupons are a form of this- if you care about saving money, you clip the coupons. There is nothing disreputable about it.

Are there any tracks that give rebates or is it just the ADW's? I know there are track owned ADW's.

Personally I think that anyone that plays the horses regularly should play where getting a rebate if possible. Now even the small players can get a rebate.

jay68802
12-31-2017, 08:27 PM
Today at Gulfstream:


Win Pool At Post Final Last Dump % of total win pool

Race #7: $168,000 $270,000 $102,000 .37

Race #8: $167,000 $197,000 $ 30,000 .15

Race #10: $124,000 $197,000 $ 73,000 .37

Race #11: $189,000 $261,000 $ 72,000 .28

So when making a bet when the horses were loading, you only knew on a average what the odds were for .75 percent of the total win pool.

Only for four races but it shows how much of the pool is coming in late.

JustRalph
12-31-2017, 08:43 PM
But two minutes after you two make that bet, it drops from 90% to 60%! :lol:

That’s great :lol:

nvemil
12-31-2017, 09:03 PM
:confused:

Yes indeed. In deep stretch after glancing around. I was watching in real time and it looked terrible.

jay68802
12-31-2017, 09:15 PM
Yes indeed. In deep stretch after glancing around. I was watching in real time and it looked terrible.

I saw it live and watch the head on replay just now to see if maybe the 8 came out a little or the horse took a wrong step. No reason I could see for the pull up. Strange.

chuckster1968
12-31-2017, 11:21 PM
Better talk to Paul Newman and Robert Redford......I said place it on the 2...all of it, place it?? ha ha ha.....some of the toteboards and the old tracks combined with different IP providers across North America and money coming in with simulcast betting, the money just takes longer to get into the bank accounts. Its not a conspiracy....

Fager Fan
12-31-2017, 11:46 PM
"If it was all whales, online bet shops like tvg and xpressbet wouldn't be successful, because whales go to rebate shops."
That is precisely my point..
Now let us suppose for a moment that all of the host tracks decided to add a fee that would make the rebates a wash. Did not NYRA do this? Add some kind of fee that made the rebates a lot less lucrative?
Just what would happen to handle? The whales and other larger volume bettors would eventually find other wagering opportunities. Handle would do what?
Increase? Decrease? Stay flat?
I believe overall handle would decrease at an alarmingly high percentage.
If the opposite were true, then why would the ADW's offer rebates in the first place? If the whales are not driving the bulk of the handle, why offer them a perk?
Notwithstanding the learned OP's input, no matter what he claims oto know, Unless someone can prove it, I think he's wrong.
Look, as a business owner, why would I offer a perk to anyone that contributes no more or no less to my bottom line?
I wouldn't.
Lets just say I sell turf irrigation equipment.
I have one large customer. That business is say a golf course. They are 25% of my revenue. The other 75% are small regular customers.
One day the golf course general manager shows up in my office. He asks me for a 5% discount off everything he buys.
Now, Do I say "no", negotiate the asking price downward, or do I cave and give him what he wants?
In my world, I tell him, let me sit on it.
After looking at the marketplace, I am one of two irrigation supply houses in the area. Otherwise, he must buy on line. The other company, 50 miles away, isn't going to drop his prices to anyone.
Can I do without the golf course? It would be tough, but i could have my accountant take care of it and I can market my company. Would the GM of that golf club take his business elsewhere? Maybe. Not probable..
I tell him there will be no discount on your first dollar. Spend X dollars and I will consider doing something.


It's all because of how it all got started. I don't know exactly which people were the initial culprits, but they were totally clueless. They made bad deals with tracks carrying their signal, then bad deals with ADWs, and then finally they had to compete with offshores for the whales so gave them what they needed to win that battle.

Now they're in a predicament that can't be fixed quickly unless they do like California and get a law passed that puts a cap on it. They're gradually making the rates more where they should be, but heaven only knows when it'd ever get where it should, probably only after racing has died.

ultracapper
01-02-2018, 10:27 AM
I saw it live and watch the head on replay just now to see if maybe the 8 came out a little or the horse took a wrong step. No reason I could see for the pull up. Strange.

:8: was bearing in and jock was pulling him out to straighten him. I think the jock of the :4: reacted late to the last of those adjustments by the :8:. I think he'd seen the :8: adjust towards him a couple times down the stretch, and the final time I think he reacted as if the :8: was going to continue out even further while adjusting, even though by now :8: had already straightened and was coming out no further. Looks funky, but I think it was just slow reaction and maybe a bit of bad judgement by the rider of the :4:

jay68802
01-02-2018, 11:33 AM
:8: was bearing in and jock was pulling him out to straighten him. I think the jock of the :4: reacted late to the last of those adjustments by the :8:. I think he'd seen the :8: adjust towards him a couple times down the stretch, and the final time I think he reacted as if the :8: was going to continue out even further while adjusting, even though by now :8: had already straightened and was coming out no further. Looks funky, but I think it was just slow reaction and maybe a bit of bad judgement by the rider of the :4:

Read your post and watched the replay again. The last time the :8: started to drift in the jock on the :4: seemed to start paying more attention to his mount. Then when the jockey on the :4: saw the :8: again, it was farther out than he expected and there was a delayed reaction on his part. Still looked very strange.

TonyK@HSH
01-03-2018, 06:42 AM
Tony you said Churchill made a valiant effort to stop wagering at post time but went back to their old ways when betters compained? This strongly implies that they allow betting after the gates have opened. Barring any malfuntion, this does not happen.


I certainly didn't mean to imply that CD permits betting after a race begins. Just that updating of odds would continue after a race began.

Tony

davew
01-03-2018, 03:51 PM
We need to limit bet size near post time - that's the ticket

the numbers could be adjusted up or down depending on quality of track and/or race like the Kentucky Derby could be 100 times higher

5 minutes nothing over $10K
4 minutes nothing over $5K
3 minutes nothing over $2K
2 minutes nothing over $1k
1 minutes nothing over $200
0 minutes nothing over $20
loading gate nothing over $5


that would help wild swings

chiguy
01-03-2018, 04:42 PM
It would help with the wild swings but it would be a detriment to the game. Guys that are betting 200-500 on a win bet are waiting to the last second to make that bet. I honestly think the issue is more with technology and these programs that high volume guys have hitting pools late.

AlsoEligible
01-04-2018, 01:47 PM
We need to limit bet size near post time - that's the ticket

the numbers could be adjusted up or down depending on quality of track and/or race like the Kentucky Derby could be 100 times higher

5 minutes nothing over $10K
4 minutes nothing over $5K
3 minutes nothing over $2K
2 minutes nothing over $1k
1 minutes nothing over $200
0 minutes nothing over $20
loading gate nothing over $5


that would help wild swings

Most of the whales are sending large batches made up of hundreds/thousands of small wagers. They're not sending a single $10,000 win bet. So this wouldn't do anything to stop their money from coming in at the last second.

Stopping all wagering at 0 mtp would stop the odds from shifting during the race, but there's still always going to be a shift after betting stops. I don't see how you can get around that, it's literally just physics. But at least the public's perception will be better if it's not happening while the horses are actually running.

jay68802
01-04-2018, 02:15 PM
Last night at Delta Downs race #10, the reported win pool was $31,000 when the horses started to load into the gate. During loading a jockey was injured, and the race was delayed for about 20 min. Right after the horses were unloaded, the win pool was $45,000 and ended up at $47,000. Just shows how much of the handle comes in the last dump. If a large bet or 2 is included in that time on a certain horse, the odds are going to change. And if the bets are made at different sites, and are received at different times, a fluctuation is going to happen.

Another interesting note. The Exacta pool on that race went from $41,000 to $37,000 and back up to $40,000.

davew
02-23-2018, 01:45 AM
Okay. the acid test.

1st at Sunland 12/26/2017 Two minutes to post

5 horses. The 1 horse was scratched

Betfair odds

2---38
3---6
4---4
5---5-2
6---9-5

Tote odds

2---5
3---5-2
4---2
5---3
6---3

and the off odds

2--25
3--5-2
4--2
5--3
8--8-5

Allan

How much volume is being matched in NJ and what tracks are they showing?

The odds do not mean much if you can not match decent sized bets at those points.

Dave Schwartz
02-23-2018, 10:35 AM
It would help with the wild swings but it would be a detriment to the game. Guys that are betting 200-500 on a win bet are waiting to the last second to make that bet. I honestly think the issue is more with technology and these programs that high volume guys have hitting pools late.

There are all kinds of ways the process could be improved without a major overhaul.

If there was an absolute fixed time of day that betting in the race would close, and then there was a minimum 2-minute lag before the gate opened, we'd have stable odds throughout the race.

Watch how fast those tracks whose post times are always way too early come in line when that "extra time" is wasted because nobody is able to bet.

People would still be putting in money at the last possible second, but at least you would know when that was.

It would also remove the perception that people are betting or canceling bets late.

Also, when special circumstances arise (such as a horse acting up), a provision could exist to allow canceling of bets on that horse only. Other than that, no canceling in the last 5 minutes.

davew
02-23-2018, 10:42 AM
Also, when special circumstances arise (such as a horse acting up), a provision could exist to allow canceling of bets on that horse only. Other than that, no canceling in the last 5 minutes.

You would need a provision for late scratch at gate like a mandatory 5 more minutes to allow changes in exotics for people that wish to do so.

Dave Schwartz
02-23-2018, 11:21 AM
You would need a provision for late scratch at gate like a mandatory 5 more minutes to allow changes in exotics for people that wish to do so.

Easy enough to accomplish.

It would also make a gate scratch a big deal.

porchy44
03-01-2018, 08:27 AM
I am not going to deny what my eyes are witnessing.

Horses odds can stay the same, go up, or go down when the gate opens. I submit winning horses odds will go down by 9 times out of 10 when compared to the 1 out of 10 winning horses odds go up ( I am not including horses odds that stay the same). Are the whales that good ? Bet cancelling likely, past posting ?

I am not pretending to know what is happening or not happening but I would love to see how odds change if they ever stop the betting when the first horse enters the gate.

castaway01
03-01-2018, 10:43 AM
How much volume is being matched in NJ and what tracks are they showing?

The odds do not mean much if you can not match decent sized bets at those points.

The answer is, very little is being matched on those Sunland races. If you could get $10 down on those "overlays" it would be a lot. By the time you could get more money down, the odds have normalized much closer to the toteboard.

Sorry, I see these pro-Betfair posts all the time and it gets old. It has its good side but there's little liquidity in the pools.

JerryBoyle
03-01-2018, 11:52 AM
There are all kinds of ways the process could be improved without a major overhaul.

If there was an absolute fixed time of day that betting in the race would close, and then there was a minimum 2-minute lag before the gate opened, we'd have stable odds throughout the race.

Watch how fast those tracks whose post times are always way too early come in line when that "extra time" is wasted because nobody is able to bet.

People would still be putting in money at the last possible second, but at least you would know when that was.

It would also remove the perception that people are betting or canceling bets late.

Also, when special circumstances arise (such as a horse acting up), a provision could exist to allow canceling of bets on that horse only. Other than that, no canceling in the last 5 minutes.

How does this help anything? As you said, it'd make bettors feel more confident that there isn't past posting as there'd be no odds changes during the race. But casual bettors would still see large odds changes after placing their bets, no? So they're left in the same exact spot

JerryBoyle
03-01-2018, 11:55 AM
The answer is, very little is being matched on those Sunland races. If you could get $10 down on those "overlays" it would be a lot. By the time you could get more money down, the odds have normalized much closer to the toteboard.

Sorry, I see these pro-Betfair posts all the time and it gets old. It has its good side but there's little liquidity in the pools.

Betfair, or exchanges in general, strike me as the best balance between current pari-mutuel system and bookies. Perhaps it's just a perception problem and more people need to be directed there (first open it to all the US). But, bettors would no longer complain about odds changes, and there wouldn't be artificial liquidity restraints placed by the book maker

five-eighths
03-04-2018, 08:48 AM
What I would like to see is having all off-track betting ending at Zero minutes to post, while on track bettors can bet until the gates close.

Maybe there would also be more people going to the track to get the best of the odds.

camourous
03-04-2018, 09:01 AM
What I would like to see is having all off-track betting ending at Zero minutes to post, while on track bettors can bet until the gates close.

Maybe there would also be more people going to the track to get the best of the odds.

You know zero minutes to post means nothing anymore to most tracks, at Gulfstream when it says zero you have about 10 minutes to actual post

Tom
03-04-2018, 09:37 AM
The tracks fully deserve the accusations they are getting. Their total disregard for their customers is 100% self-inflicted. Late odds changes, drug positives......none of it has to be out there being talked about like it is.

DeltaLover
03-04-2018, 09:39 AM
Last second odds changes is one of the major reasons that make traditional betting approaches useless and makes the game quite unattractive and impossible to beat.

Horse bettors continue to spend their time and effort trying to estimate the winning probabilities, predict the winner and discover ways to apply Kelly criterion while in parallel they fail to realize that this approach has no value since the market value will not be known before the end of the race! This people constantly ignore the fact that since the price offered by the market is unknown, trying to discover overlays using subjective probabilities is nothing more than a pipe dream.

Most likely, the game has reached to the point where it is impossible to extract any value from the pools in any kind of a systematic fashion. My impression is that the relative small size of the betting pools combined with the increased sophistication of the large bettors, the betting tools and the special rebate deals they enjoy, has converted the game to some type of a roulette with a 20%+ takeout.

GMB@BP
03-04-2018, 09:48 AM
Last second odds changes is one of the major reasons that make traditional betting approaches useless and makes the game quite unattractive and impossible to beat.

Horse bettors continue to spend their time and effort trying to estimate the winning probabilities, predict the winner and discover ways to apply Kelly criterion while in parallel they fail to realize that this approach has no value since the market value will not be known before the end of the race! This people constantly ignore the fact that since the price offered by the market is unknown, trying to discover overlays using subjective probabilities is nothing more than a pipe dream.

Most likely, the game has reached to the point where it is impossible to extract any value from the pools in any kind of a systematic fashion. My impression is that the relative small size of the betting pools combined with the increased sophistication of the large bettors, the betting tools and the special rebate deals they enjoy, has converted the game to some type of a roulette with a 20%+ takeout.

This was talked about extensively in the CRW thread...

but your post is spot on. Looking for value in the traditional odds line/overlay situation is kinda pointless as you stated.

I just typically look for a few plays on a card, and figure out what I would take as acceptable odds based on the strength of my opinion.

I try to play at the bigger tracks where at least there is some money in the pools. 50% of my play has moved to contests where this is not relevant anymore.

biggestal99
03-04-2018, 12:21 PM
Betfair, or exchanges in general, strike me as the best balance between current pari-mutuel system and bookies. Perhaps it's just a perception problem and more people need to be directed there (first open it to all the US). But, bettors would no longer complain about odds changes, and there wouldn't be artificial liquidity restraints placed by the book maker

That’s it exactly. Why should small horseplayers suffer because of late betting.

No problems with that with fixed odds betting.

The thing is that people in the United States.

There is very limited experience with it.

Instead they take to complaining about it like this thread instead of taking action.

Fixed odds betting makes threads like this one passé.

Only Monmouth has completely embraced betfair.

Other tracks worry about canibalization of their pools.

Exchange betting is great.

Allan

biggestal99
03-04-2018, 12:29 PM
The answer is, very little is being matched on those Sunland races. If you could get $10 down on those "overlays" it would be a lot. By the time you could get more money down, the odds have normalized much closer to the toteboard.

Sorry, I see these pro-Betfair posts all the time and it gets old. It has its good side but there's little liquidity in the pools.

I will post the first at Tampa today, the volume, the odds and the amount that’s out there to be matched

And yes I am pro betfair, it sure beats betting 100 dollars on a 11-1 and getting the final odds of 4-1.

Allan

AltonKelsey
03-04-2018, 12:50 PM
......
Most likely, the game has reached to the point where it is impossible to extract any value from the pools in any kind of a systematic fashion. My impression is that the relative small size of the betting pools combined with the increased sophistication of the large bettors, the betting tools and the special rebate deals they enjoy, has converted the game to some type of a roulette with a 20%+ takeout.


That's why anyone with a clue has been lobbying for a MUCH lower takeout for decades.


That said, I think the odds change issue is overstated. They are wrong plenty. We should start a thread for posting winners that go UP, and hammered prices that lose.

It would be a very long thread after a while, PA might have to buy more storage.

Quesmark
03-04-2018, 12:55 PM
You know zero minutes to post means nothing anymore to most tracks, at Gulfstream when it says zero you have about 10 minutes to actual post
Is one reason to capture additional wagers from bettors who lost money on races which were run around the Gulfstream scheduled post,delay the start until the chasers have a chance to try and recoup their losses,and send the Gulf horses away in a bubble from any serious opposing tracks competition.
It's very annoying though watching horses parade around just to build pools,does this really work anyway.

PaceAdvantage
03-04-2018, 12:59 PM
Last year I posted 500+ races while using a value line and made 4%

Currently, I've posted 225 top choice picks in the VIP section (starting 2/24) NOT using any sort of odds line and not caring what the odds are...I've hit 36% winners and my ROI is 1.10 currently. My highest price winner was $23.

Not saying it's going to continue...who knows...I think it will based on my research...but we'll see...

Late odds drops suck, and takeout could be lower, but that doesn't mean you still can't win.

biggestal99
03-04-2018, 01:09 PM
How much volume is being matched in NJ and what tracks are they showing?

The odds do not mean much if you can not match decent sized bets at those points.

Here is the first tampa today

Tote odds

1-11
2-13
3-5
4-5
5-3
6-8
7-9/2
9-3

Exchange odds and amount to be matched

1. 21-5
2. 33-12
3. 7-29
4. 4-326
5. 4-120
6. 7-12
7. 5-70
9. 9/2-100

Allan

Deepcloser1
03-04-2018, 01:57 PM
New to site but... Example I see all the time.Race #9 Santa Anita on Feb. 25. I play the #5 horse Traveza loading at 7-1.He goes right to the lead and wins for fun.I bet $100 thinking great $17.00 horse.Uh...as usual pays $9.00.Naturally,someone says : Wow there must of been some ( LATE MONEY ) come in.Amazing how the ( LATE MONEY ) runs at about 99.9 win.Not many winners hit the front and odds go up.

PaceAdvantage
03-04-2018, 02:06 PM
New to site but... Example I see all the time.Race #9 Santa Anita on Feb. 25. I play the #5 horse Traveza loading at 7-1.He goes right to the lead and wins for fun.I bet $100 thinking great $17.00 horse.Uh...as usual pays $9.00.Naturally,someone says : Wow there must of been some ( LATE MONEY ) come in.Amazing how the ( LATE MONEY ) runs at about 99.9 win.Not many winners hit the front and odds go up.Until we see a confirmed study of such things, I chalk this up to selective anecdotal experience.

Of course you're going to remember the ones that screwed you the most and think it happens all the time and only to winning horses. It's human nature.

horses4courses
03-04-2018, 03:13 PM
I remember hearing complaints about this 25 years ago.
Happened around the time that simulcasting was expanding,
and off-track handle was becoming more significant.

Nothing ever changes, and yet there are solutions.
The one I like best is once the clock hits zero minutes
to post, and horses begin loading in the gate, all
windows are closed at the track, and mutuels are
locked out away from it. Easy fix - bettors adapt.

The conspiracy theorists who claim that every race
gets bet into until at least the quarter pole will
never be completely satisfied, but it would be a
step in the right direction, at least.

oughtoh
03-04-2018, 03:17 PM
I like when the odds go down after they pass the finish line and the horses are coming back to be unsaddled.

DeltaLover
03-04-2018, 03:17 PM
Until we see a confirmed study of such things, I chalk this up to selective anecdotal experience.

Of course you're going to remember the ones that screwed you the most and think it happens all the time and only to winning horses. It's human nature.

Agree with a confirming study and actually I am thinking of doing so.

More than this and while I applause yout scepticism I have to same that the same reaction is not the usual reaction (at least not here in PA) when people are making claims about whales, positive ROIs etc.

GMB@BP
03-04-2018, 03:23 PM
Until we see a confirmed study of such things, I chalk this up to selective anecdotal experience.

Of course you're going to remember the ones that screwed you the most and think it happens all the time and only to winning horses. It's human nature.

I think the fact it does happen, and the why (outdated Tote systems) were outlined in Betting with an Edge by Mike Maloney.

GMB@BP
03-04-2018, 03:24 PM
Here is the first tampa today

Tote odds

1-11
2-13
3-5
4-5
5-3
6-8
7-9/2
9-3

Exchange odds and amount to be matched

1. 21-5
2. 33-12
3. 7-29
4. 4-326
5. 4-120
6. 7-12
7. 5-70
9. 9/2-100

Allan

Horsemen and their unions are very tough to convince to make changes, usually unless they get forced to by the powers that be they dont change.

Tom
03-04-2018, 03:29 PM
Well, the odds on my video machine never change after I push the button.

A lot of people see this and think the door to the racing side is the one to the garbage shed.

Most are correct.

Tracks should fire the guys running them now and hire the guts running the casino side.

Tom
03-04-2018, 03:30 PM
Horsemen and their unions are very tough to convince to make changes, usually unless they get forced to by the powers that be they dont change.

Racing has no clue who the customer is.

LemonSoupKid
03-04-2018, 05:07 PM
Seems like another reason why I play horizontal wagers.

Deepcloser1
03-04-2018, 05:33 PM
Thank's for the response.I was by no means crying about getting screwed in that race.I'm new to the site but played races along time.Your right,you always remember the tough ones.You just never really hear after the race : Man,his odds really shot up.Kind of like playing a pick 3 or pick 4.It weems like everytime you spread in a big field you catch the favorite.Seems like everytime.Catch some winners.Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Elliott Sidewater
03-04-2018, 05:41 PM
Racing has no clue who the customer is.

I think racing knows who the customer is, but they don't care. The CW seems to be 'there's a sucker born every minute' and if we lose some of the suckers others will eventually appear in their place. It doesn't matter that the stands are empty, the place is dirty and not maintained, the teletimer hasn't worked in years, and that lightbulbs in the toteboard have been out since the end of daylight savings time. The problem is that there are too many people saying it's not their problem.

AlsoEligible
03-05-2018, 12:15 PM
Until we see a confirmed study of such things, I chalk this up to selective anecdotal experience.

Of course you're going to remember the ones that screwed you the most and think it happens all the time and only to winning horses. It's human nature.

I would feel confident saying that this does happen a lot, but again, it's not due to past-posting.

Whales dump tons of money into the pools at the last possible second. They actually have guys whose job is to sync up TV feeds and tote feeds and figure out exactly when to hit a button and dump in thousands of wagers, preferably at 2-3 seconds before the jump.

Fun side note, this button guy is how they skirt around being declared "robo-bettors" (which are illegal in many jurisdictions), and instead are defined as "computer assisted wagering". Meaning software is still generating all of the wagers, but a human being is ultimately sending in all of the bets.

Whales are also pretty good at making picks. Ergo, when these guys dump $50k+ on the same 10-1 horse that you like, it's not surprising that it winds up at 6-1 instead.

It doesn't really matter if you stop betting when the gate breaks, when the first horse enters, when the clock hits 0 MTP, or 3 MTP, or whatever other benchmark you want to use. There's always going to be a large amount of last-second money, which is always going to result in odds shifting. And unless Elon Musk is going to invest in horse racing and develop a global tote network that operates at the speed of light, there's always going to be a delay in getting those final odds back to the tote boards and TV displays.

One realistic solution I think could help is locking out the whales earlier; say at 2 MTP. The track still gets their money, the public gets to see how it impacts the odds, and then they still have a good 2-3 minutes left to place their bets (or cancel bets that they no longer want). There may still be an odds shift after all betting stops, but it wouldn't be nearly as dramatic as what we see now.

Of course as things stand right now, no track has any incentive to try this (and even less incentive to risk pushing away their whales). So I'm not holding my breath. But it's the best compromise that I can see.

biggestal99
03-05-2018, 01:22 PM
Here is the first tampa today

Tote odds

1-11
2-13
3-5
4-5
5-3
6-8
7-9/2
9-3

Exchange odds and amount to be matched

1. 21-5
2. 33-12
3. 7-29
4. 4-326
5. 4-120
6. 7-12
7. 5-70
9. 9/2-100

Allan

So basically there was 326 avail to be matched at 4-1 (or better) on a 5/2 final odds horse. even when you subtract the 12% commission (which makes it an 8.80 horse) it is significantly better than the tote's 7.40

for a medium sized bettor such as myself the exchange is great.

due to liquidity issues in the US races prolly not for the 500 dollar a race bettor.

Allan

Tom
03-05-2018, 03:43 PM
Simple solution - ALL off track betting closes two minutes to post.

DeltaLover
03-05-2018, 04:46 PM
Simple solution - ALL off track betting closes two minutes to post.

Although not a silver bullet still your suggestion will improve drastically the existing mess and make the game a bit better and more honest.

I am wondering, what keeps the race tracks from implementing this simple solution that will provide a significant improvement?

cj
03-05-2018, 04:56 PM
Although not a silver bullet still your suggestion will improve drastically the existing mess and make the game a bit better and more honest.

I am wondering, what keeps the race tracks from implementing this simple solution that will provide a significant improvement?

This was tried after the Fix 6 scandal. Betting stopped either at post time or as the first horse was loaded in the gate. There were apparently a bunch of dumbass bettors that were too dumb to figure it out and kept getting shut out, at least that is what we were told. So it went away pretty quickly as handle was allegedly being hurt. I don't remember if there were numbers to back it up.

Of course it would have sorted itself out in due time but tracks have no real incentive to close the pools any sooner than the last possible second.

DeltaLover
03-05-2018, 05:21 PM
This was tried after the Fix 6 scandal. Betting stopped either at post time or as the first horse was loaded in the gate. There were apparently a bunch of dumbass bettors that were too dumb to figure it out and kept getting shut out, at least that is what we were told. So it went away pretty quickly as handle was allegedly being hurt. I don't remember if there were numbers to back it up.

Of course it would have sorted itself out in due time but tracks have no real incentive to close the pools any sooner than the last possible second.

The improvement will come by stopping all the forms of off track betting (including batch processing) while keeping the on track open for a few more minutes.

Tom
03-05-2018, 05:40 PM
Back in the 70s that was how it was done.
Betting at OTB stopped 1 or 2 minutes before post.

The OTB manager used make an announcement EVERY single race - "Betting stops at 2 minutes to post!"

And half the morons still got shut out and whined.

The fact is the track do not care. Most tracks have no clue who the customer is.

green80
03-05-2018, 08:20 PM
The improvement will come by stopping all the forms of off track betting (including batch processing) while keeping the on track open for a few more minutes.

The problem with cutting off the off track money at 2MTP or whenever, is that sometimes you have horses that won't load and another throws the jockey and all of a sudden you have a 10 minute delay with all the off track money cut off. Then you have a late scratch and a jockey change. What are you going to do, reopen the off track wagering?

DeltaLover
03-06-2018, 08:35 AM
The problem with cutting off the off track money at 2MTP or whenever, is that sometimes you have horses that won't load and another throws the jockey and all of a sudden you have a 10 minute delay with all the off track money cut off. Then you have a late scratch and a jockey change. What are you going to do, reopen the off track wagering?

Why not? What is the problem?

dasch
03-06-2018, 09:37 AM
There was a company a couple of years ago that came up with a system that could update every 4 seconds so at worst the last odds change would happen 4 seconds into the race. I believe the cost to install was about $50k. Haven't heard another thing about it since. It really makes you wonder what is going on when the cost to improve is so small yet they have no real desire to make any changes at all.

Dave Schwartz
03-06-2018, 11:28 AM
There was a company a couple of years ago that came up with a system that could update every 4 seconds so at worst the last odds change would happen 4 seconds into the race. I believe the cost to install was about $50k. Haven't heard another thing about it since. It really makes you wonder what is going on when the cost to improve is so small yet they have no real desire to make any changes at all.

I'd really like to hear more about that.

Have a difficult time imagining the problem being fixed without a major restructuring of the entire system.

jay68802
03-06-2018, 11:29 AM
http://www.amtote.com/product/gateway-web-services

http://www.amtote.com/product/filebettm

http://www.amtote.com/product/spectrum-software-suite

My first thoughts after reading this is that a individual has the ability to access AM Tote directly and the ability to batch wagers without using a third party such as Twinspires or DRF Bets. Do not know this for sure, any thoughts?

ultracapper
03-06-2018, 12:14 PM
The problem with cutting off the off track money at 2MTP or whenever, is that sometimes you have horses that won't load and another throws the jockey and all of a sudden you have a 10 minute delay with all the off track money cut off. Then you have a late scratch and a jockey change. What are you going to do, reopen the off track wagering?

This happens at least 75 times a day.

AlsoEligible
03-06-2018, 12:55 PM
http://www.amtote.com/product/gateway-web-services

http://www.amtote.com/product/filebettm

http://www.amtote.com/product/spectrum-software-suite

My first thoughts after reading this is that a individual has the ability to access AM Tote directly and the ability to batch wagers without using a third party such as Twinspires or DRF Bets. Do not know this for sure, any thoughts?

That's correct, and this is what the larger whales use to send batches of bets directly to the tote system. They're not products that any individual can call up and start using.

Although there's really not that much of a difference between sending a batch of bets directly to tote, and sending a batch through a third party ADW like DRF, TWS, etc. It's mainly done to trim off any excess latency by removing any middle men (talking 1-2 seconds at most). That's important for the big guys, but not so much for the regular betting public.

PaceAdvantage
03-06-2018, 12:56 PM
Plus they get those super-secret Trifecta will-pays...:pound: (not)

Oh, and don't forget, the ability to bet/cancel past the break....

AltonKelsey
03-06-2018, 01:08 PM
The slow update issue is a disgrace.

The technology to do it realtime is CHEAP and has been available for decades.

They obviously like it the way it is. Possibly because it suits the whales/bot players.

Stock market data is delivered in sub second timeframes seamlessly and there's probably 10,000,000 times the data involved. Maybe more.

The excuse making is ludicrous.

Fox
03-06-2018, 01:17 PM
I still find it peculiar that the OP never identified which race he was whining about.

AlsoEligible
03-06-2018, 01:33 PM
There was a company a couple of years ago that came up with a system that could update every 4 seconds so at worst the last odds change would happen 4 seconds into the race. I believe the cost to install was about $50k. Haven't heard another thing about it since. It really makes you wonder what is going on when the cost to improve is so small yet they have no real desire to make any changes at all.

Can't find any old articles on this, but I seem to recall hearing someone proposing the idea of a new "high-speed" network similar to this. That said, the current tote systems/network (at least in North America) are already capable of doing updates every ~5 seconds, if the industry wanted it.

The main reasons this hasn't been done already are:

1) You're only as fast as your slowest/weakest link. The US network can send/receive updates every 5 seconds, but there's also several off-shore sources with crappy networks in places like Central/South America, Africa, etc. Collecting 90% of the money in 5 seconds does no good if you have to wait another 10+ seconds for the other 10%.

2) Certain US states (Florida and Arizona) require money to be sent through multiple tote systems (including an "in-state" system) before it reaches the host. These "double hops" add a lot of latency, something around 10-15 seconds. This isn't a tech problem, it's a legislative one, and good luck getting a state legislator to pay attention to your concerns about updating parimutuel tote networks. We've tried.

3) Concerns about on-track equipment, TV displays, etc not being able to handle refreshing odds every 4-5 seconds. By the time the public has a chance to look at the board, it's already turning over again. Not to mention older equipment/boards that simply won't be able to handle a refresh rate like that without burning out. This would require a lot of tracks investing in new infield boards and displays around the track, which blows up that $50k estimate.

Right now most tracks are still on 45-60 second updates, and within 3 MTP that time comes down to 20-30 seconds. Over the next couple years the industry will probably try to reduce that further to 10-20, but I don't see it going much lower than that unless the issues above are addressed.

EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not saying any of these are good excuses. I'm just explaining what the discussions inside the industry are on this topic, and why things haven't gotten faster. You can decide if they're valid reasons or not.

Ruffian1
03-06-2018, 01:42 PM
The slow update issue is a disgrace.

The technology to do it realtime is CHEAP and has been available for decades.

They obviously like it the way it is. Possibly because it suits the whales/bot players.


Management loves it the way it is.They created it. Horsemen better love it because all management ever said to us was if the handle falls, the purses fall. Period.

Handle is all that matters when it comes to this issue.

As earlier said, hats off to New York for adhering to post times as best they can.

As also stated by Tom, when all this OTB stuff started , 2 minutes was the cutoff. But shortly thereafter, the entire east coast and I am sure other places as well all decided to race as often as possible. Almost everyone grabbed for all the handle they could. And over the years, not much has changed.

The starter or lead outrider would often get the call on the radio to delay loading a minute or two on big days. That has been going on for decades. I have to assume it still is.
That used to drive me nuts, watching my horse spin around behind the gate for 3 minutes and then , of course, some long shot who got all amped up near the gate won't load, and the horse that hates the gate the least just picked up 3 lengths on the ones that get upset behind it . That is why standing your horse in the morning every now and then, even if they are fine, became a key. Of course, a lot of the bigger outfits can afford to do that while most small trainers cannot.
All this can affect a lot of what goes on in the race,but it's all about the handle. I must have heard that a thousand times.

AltonKelsey
03-06-2018, 01:53 PM
"These "double hops" add a lot of latency, something around 10-15 seconds."

You must be joking. Your typical internet connection involves 10-15 hops and is near instantaneous.


It's NOT the technology , its the sloth.

AlsoEligible
03-06-2018, 02:00 PM
"These "double hops" add a lot of latency, something around 10-15 seconds."

You must be joking. Your typical internet connection involves 10-15 hops and is near instantaneous.


It's NOT the technology , its the sloth.

Internet hops are simply passing on traffic from one point to the next. Whereas in this situation the intermediate systems are waiting to collect handle, combine it with their own, then pass the totals onto to the next system, then rinse and repeat. That's what bogs down the timing.

Not arguing that improvements can't be made, but at the end of the day someone has to pay for it (or in this case, lobby legislatures to change the rules), and there's no incentive right now for anyone in the industry to raise their hand and volunteer to foot the bill and put in the work.

jay68802
03-06-2018, 02:17 PM
Plus they get those super-secret Trifecta will-pays...:pound: (not)

:)

Oh, and don't forget, the ability to bet/cancel past the break....

When I here this I keep thinking of the trading companies on Wall Street that were making money because they had a faster connection. I think a customer would place a order and the trading company could buy the stock and then sell it to the customer make one or two cents on the transaction. I think the ability to wager 1 second after the break is over rated, but the ability to cancel a bet would be a advantage. The reason I say this is that I can give 7 examples in the past 4 weeks where well bet horse's at GS and SA have started poorly and have gone up in odds. In the same time period I have yet to see a horse that broke poorly and has gone down in odds.

AltonKelsey
03-06-2018, 02:26 PM
AlsoEligible (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/member.php?u=208571), ok , if you want to say the intermediate hubs cause a delay, thats fine. Still no reason why everything , everywhere, can't be on a 5 second or less cycle.

I think the old OTB's in NY where you handed the guy a slip penciled in, was faster.

AltonKelsey
03-06-2018, 02:28 PM
I think the ability to wager 1 second after the break is over rated, but the ability to cancel a bet would be a advantage. The reason I say this is that I can give 7 examples in the past 4 weeks where well bet horse's at GS and SA have started poorly and have gone up in odds. In the same time period I have yet to see a horse that broke poorly and has gone down in odds.


The video feeds are slower than that . Not possible to do anything within a few seconds realtime. Do you imagine they have a man at the track with binoculars calling the start?

jay68802
03-06-2018, 02:43 PM
The video feeds are slower than that . Not possible to do anything within a few seconds realtime. Do you imagine they have a man at the track with binoculars calling the start?

No, but it would not surprise me if they are at the track.

biggestal99
03-06-2018, 03:08 PM
The slow update issue is a disgrace.

The technology to do it realtime is CHEAP and has been available for decades.

They obviously like it the way it is. Possibly because it suits the whales/bot players.

Stock market data is delivered in sub second timeframes seamlessly and there's probably 10,000,000 times the data involved. Maybe more.

The excuse making is ludicrous.

wagers amounts on betfair are updated every 3 seconds or so.

quite a few times I missed a matched bet because the bots beat me to the price.

I wish it was faster sometimes when laying a bet in running on a quitter (my favorite bet) I will put it in the market a few ticks higher thus insuring a matched bet with a bot.

with the bot its the price.

with this human its the horse first and then the price.

The bot doesn't know its a quitter, I do. Advantage human.

Allan

JerryBoyle
03-06-2018, 03:48 PM
That's correct, and this is what the larger whales use to send batches of bets directly to the tote system. They're not products that any individual can call up and start using.

Although there's really not that much of a difference between sending a batch of bets directly to tote, and sending a batch through a third party ADW like DRF, TWS, etc. It's mainly done to trim off any excess latency by removing any middle men (talking 1-2 seconds at most). That's important for the big guys, but not so much for the regular betting public.

I currently use 2 adw's and it's possible to write code to programmatically bet with both. PA has mentioned that he did this 10 years ago. Twin Spires doesn't provide a "batch" option, as far as I know, but I've had no problem sending 100s of tickets serially to them within seconds. Anyone can look at the browser's calls and reverse engineer a programmatic betting system, and I feel reasonably confident that it's possible with any adw. I'd be happy to help anyone get set up with this, but to me it's not really useful unless you have a system that allows you to somehow output 100s of wagers after you've finished handicapping. Regardless, the point is that it doesn't require being part of some super-secret syndicate to batch bet, and claiming that this is even remotely an unfair edge they have is ridiculous.

FWIW, Twin Spires limits the number of tickets you can cancel for the day, so no one is using them to do that (unless the user has some special arrangement with TS). It's possible other adw's allow it, but I haven't checked. Frankly, you'd need tote tick prices over time to even backtest batch cancelling, which is hard to acquire unless one has been running a live system for some time. That is to say, even if I programmed a batch cancelling system, I wouldn't and couldn't use it until I had historical tote tick data with which to test it. Even then I'm not sure I'd use it...

AlsoEligible
03-06-2018, 04:52 PM
Regardless, the point is that it doesn't require being part of some super-secret syndicate to batch bet, and claiming that this is even remotely an unfair edge they have is ridiculous.

I'm not claiming that you need to be part of a syndicate to batch wager through ADW. That's absolutely accessible to anyone who wants to do it.

The post I quoted was talking about batch wagering directly into one of the major tote providers, bypassing any ADW at all. That interface is not available to just anyone who emails a tote company and asks for a hookup.

DGroundhog
03-07-2018, 03:25 AM
AlsoEligible (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/member.php?u=208571), ok , if you want to say the intermediate hubs cause a delay, thats fine. Still no reason why everything , everywhere, can't be on a 5 second or less cycle.

AE already explained that. AE is right. AE is obviously well informed and is trying to enlighten PA members.

3) Concerns about on-track equipment, TV displays, etc not being able to handle refreshing odds every 4-5 seconds. By the time the public has a chance to look at the board, it's already turning over again. Not to mention older equipment/boards that simply won't be able to handle a refresh rate like that without burning out. This would require a lot of tracks investing in new infield boards and displays around the track, which blows up that $50k estimate.

Poindexter
03-07-2018, 07:03 AM
Can't find any old articles on this, but I seem to recall hearing someone proposing the idea of a new "high-speed" network similar to this. That said, the current tote systems/network (at least in North America) are already capable of doing updates every ~5 seconds, if the industry wanted it.

The main reasons this hasn't been done already are:

1) You're only as fast as your slowest/weakest link. The US network can send/receive updates every 5 seconds, but there's also several off-shore sources with crappy networks in places like Central/South America, Africa, etc. Collecting 90% of the money in 5 seconds does no good if you have to wait another 10+ seconds for the other 10%.

So why can't they update the odds with the info from the Us Network every 5 second and just add the data from the crappy offshore networks when they are available? Why do they have to wait for the slower data that I assume is fairly irrelevant anyhow?

2) Certain US states (Florida and Arizona) require money to be sent through multiple tote systems (including an "in-state" system) before it reaches the host. These "double hops" add a lot of latency, something around 10-15 seconds. This isn't a tech problem, it's a legislative one, and good luck getting a state legislator to pay attention to your concerns about updating parimutuel tote networks. We've tried.

3) Concerns about on-track equipment, TV displays, etc not being able to handle refreshing odds every 4-5 seconds. By the time the public has a chance to look at the board, it's already turning over again. Not to mention older equipment/boards that simply won't be able to handle a refresh rate like that without burning out. This would require a lot of tracks investing in new infield boards and displays around the track, which blows up that $50k estimate.

Why is this even a concern? Why can't they update the on track equipment at the same snails pace they currently do as long as the adw's are having their data updated at faster intervals, all is good. If anyone at the track wants a more updated odds they can turn on their smartphone. Couldn't the host track also just put the most current data on their own web site which I assume would update quickest of all.

Right now most tracks are still on 45-60 second updates, and within 3 MTP that time comes down to 20-30 seconds. Over the next couple years the industry will probably try to reduce that further to 10-20, but I don't see it going much lower than that unless the issues above are addressed.

EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not saying any of these are good excuses. I'm just explaining what the discussions inside the industry are on this topic, and why things haven't gotten faster. You can decide if they're valid reasons or not.

AE, I have a couple of questions. See above. I don't know much about this tech stuff so...............

AlsoEligible
03-07-2018, 11:41 AM
AE, I have a couple of questions. See above. I don't know much about this tech stuff so...............

So why can't they update the odds with the info from the Us Network every 5 second and just add the data from the crappy offshore networks when they are available? Why do they have to wait for the slower data that I assume is fairly irrelevant anyhow?

You're right that most of the time offshore money is going to have little to no impact on the odds. It would require re-writing the protocol that all of the totes currently use to commingle handle and calculate odds (which currently forces a system to wait until all money from all wagering sources are received). There's no reason that can't be done, but it circles back to the question of who's volunteering to put in the money and effort to do it. This isn't a bad idea, though.

Why is this even a concern? Why can't they update the on track equipment at the same snails pace they currently do as long as the adw's are having their data updated at faster intervals, all is good. If anyone at the track wants a more updated odds they can turn on their smartphone. Couldn't the host track also just put the most current data on their own web site which I assume would update quickest of all.

Tracks already don't want people using their smartphones/tablets to go to ADWs while they're at the track. Because you're then more likely to bet through the ADW, rather than to the windows....which means that the track/horsemen/etc get a smaller cut of your handle. This became a big issue in California over the past year, and will probably spill over to other states as everyone tries to salvage their pieces of the shrinking pie.

You may not care about any of that as a player, and I don't blame you. But unfortunately telling tracks "we're going to 5 seconds and your patrons will just have to go to TVG or TwinSpires to see faster odds" would go over like a fart in church.

More and more tracks are rolling out their own mobile sites, where you can view odds and place bets from your smartphone (but all of the bets are treated as if they're made through a window). When that becomes more widespread, then it sort of eliminates the problem above...but like everything else, that's moving at a snail's pace.

Tom
03-07-2018, 11:54 AM
So bottom line is, customers don't matter to the racing industry.
ALL of it is minor league.

Lots of reason why things can't be done, not hearing much of what can be done.

Other than, of course, sto playing and find other avenues of entertainment.

Of which there are many, some of which even respect their customers.

Bad timing, wrong distances, hidden informations, post time overlapping, late odds changes......make me wonder if racing is capable of doing anything correctly.

Ruffian1
03-07-2018, 01:47 PM
So bottom line is, customers don't matter to the racing industry.
ALL of it is minor league.

Lots of reason why things can't be done, not hearing much of what can be done.

Other than, of course, sto playing and find other avenues of entertainment.

Of which there are many, some of which even respect their customers.

Bad timing, wrong distances, hidden informations, post time overlapping, late odds changes......make me wonder if racing is capable of doing anything correctly.


Tom

Back in the day the only players advocate in the room was me, and I was a horseman. That got me in trouble and I had to dial that back somewhat.

Without a voice, the player will be a non factor almost every time.

Hopefully the players are starting to get a voice, at least that's what I read here sometimes, but it is baby steps.

I remember being with a group of about ten people consisting of about 6 trainers, the track super, the general manager of the track and two riders trying to decide whether to run or not at Bowie on a 10 degree morning while walking the track . The jocks had virtually no say in the matter.
That was 1976. Fast forward 40 years and the jocks call ALL the shots. The trainers have no say to speak of. Why? The riders have a voice and it's the only voice when it comes to track safety.
It CAN happen, but it needs a lot more push than is currently available.

If the fans would all get up and walk out at the same time, that would be a start and probably all that would be needed moving forward but we all know that will never happen in the dog eat dog game of gambling.

By the way, we did run that day and cheap claimers were running 9 and change and better. I was 22 then and walking the track with a couple of future hall of famers and a bunch of 50 year olds and in hind sight,we never should have run. It was a terrible decision.
But the handle was up.:bang:

AstrosFan
03-07-2018, 01:59 PM
At 1:41pm with half the field loaded

Win pool: $55,591

1 - 3,188 (12)
2 - 12,952 (5/2)
3 - 14,835 (2) Favorite
4 - 12,839 (5/2)
5 - 2,408 (18)
6 - 9,367 (7/2)

At 1:44pm crossing the finish line

Win pool: $92,547

1 - 3,943 (18)
2 - 21,725 (5/2)
3 - 20,672 (5/2)
4 - 30,866 (7/5) Favorite
5 - 3,702 (19)
6 - 11,637 (5)

$36k added into the win pool, in those last couple of minutes

Lafecs
03-07-2018, 02:25 PM
I'm not claiming that you need to be part of a syndicate to batch wager through ADW. That's absolutely accessible to anyone who wants to do it.

The post I quoted was talking about batch wagering directly into one of the major tote providers, bypassing any ADW at all. That interface is not available to just anyone who emails a tote company and asks for a hookup.

And while “batch wagering” might not be an advantage by itself, it would certainly be an advantage to be able to make the *last* wager, which I am convinced they figured out how to do, whether it be through superior technology, or whatever.

lamboguy
03-07-2018, 02:42 PM
And while “batch wagering” might not be an advantage by itself, it would certainly be an advantage to be able to make the *last* wager, which I am convinced they figured out how to do, whether it be through superior technology, or whatever.you are right, if i could i would let people without the consuls batch bet, let me bet against them, and i would give them back half of what they lose every month. i couldn't beat the boys with the consuls with a baseball bat and that is what seems to be in these pools now.

i don't think there are more than 10 people that have these $40,000 consuls. i know about them because i was offered one and didn't want to be a slave to them.

AltonKelsey
03-07-2018, 03:08 PM
And while “batch wagering” might not be an advantage by itself, it would certainly be an advantage to be able to make the *last* wager, which I am convinced they figured out how to do, whether it be through superior technology, or whatever.

THEY? Are we assuming there is only one THEY ?

I thought there were a dozen THEYS. THEY cant' all make the last wager can THEY?

Tom
03-07-2018, 05:07 PM
Ruffian, I totally support any jockey decisions to not race over a suspect track.

You can have a meeting of track-people, trainers, owners, etc, but the whe gate opens, the only ones who might die of never walk again are the jockeys.

You seem to be a decent guy, so thanks for your input. :ThmbUp:

DGroundhog
03-07-2018, 05:40 PM
So bottom line is, customers don't matter to the racing industry.
ALL of it is minor league.

Lots of reason why things can't be done, not hearing much of what can be done.

Other than, of course, sto playing and find other avenues of entertainment.

Of which there are many, some of which even respect their customers.

Bad timing, wrong distances, hidden informations, post time overlapping, late odds changes......make me wonder if racing is capable of doing anything correctly.

Since the bettors are the ones who want things fixed, why don't the bettors get together and pay for all the updates to fix the things they chronically whine about?

lamboguy
03-07-2018, 06:43 PM
Since the bettors are the ones who want things fixed, why don't the bettors get together and pay for all the updates to fix the things they chronically whine about?bettors are already paying over 30% for superfectas and trifectas at some tracks, they are paying 25% and more for pick 2's and pick 4's. how much more do you want them to pay?

Valuist
03-07-2018, 06:44 PM
Since the bettors are the ones who want things fixed, why don't the bettors get together and pay for all the updates to fix the things they chronically whine about?

A lot of us have taken our wagering dollars and moved them elsewhere. And that is not about to change.

From your response, you are either a horseman or work in track management.

Ruffian1
03-07-2018, 06:48 PM
Ruffian, I totally support any jockey decisions to not race over a suspect track.

You can have a meeting of track-people, trainers, owners, etc, but the whe gate opens, the only ones who might die of never walk again are the jockeys.

You seem to be a decent guy, so thanks for your input. :ThmbUp:



Thanks Tom.

What I failed to write though was that IMO the riders SHOULD have the final say. Nobody can tell you the amount of shock and vibration that the horses legs will be asked to absorb more than the person on the horses back. And it is their lives that are on the line as well as the horses. Thankfully, the riders now control that aspect.

Another point I failed to write was the reason they did not have any say back then was because if the leading 4 riders refused to ride, which they did often enough, there were struggling jocks in the room that would say, "I'll ride em". As a result, they had a fractured union. That no longer exists. They stand as one. And THAT is what makes them, or any union, strong.
The downside of that for the customer is that it will be darn near impossible to get all the players on the same page and similarly stand as one. The opportunity will always be there. I just cannot see the public being able to come together as one voice and be willing to walk, or simply place no bets on a race, or a card, if their voice is not heard. It would be great to see though.
If kids in high school can do it, you would think the grown up fans at a particular track could as well. I guess we can hope.
That is what I wanted to say in my last post.

thaskalos
03-07-2018, 06:52 PM
A lot of us have taken our wagering dollars and moved them elsewhere. And that is not about to change.

From your response, you are either a horseman or work in track management.

Naw...he just likes to play "devil's advocate"...so he could prove to himself how smart he is. :rolleyes:

PaceAdvantage
03-07-2018, 06:59 PM
A lot of us have taken our wagering dollars and moved them elsewhere. And that is not about to change.

From your response, you are either a horseman or work in track management.Or just an all-purpose troll.

thaskalos
03-07-2018, 07:05 PM
Since the bettors are the ones who want things fixed, why don't the bettors get together and pay for all the updates to fix the things they chronically whine about?

And after the bettors get together to fix the odds-change problem...they should gather up again to raise some more money so they could properly equip the game's drug-testing laboratories...RIGHT? After all...no-one else seems to care about the drug problem in the game either. :ThmbUp:

DGroundhog
03-07-2018, 11:21 PM
And after the bettors get together to fix the odds-change problem...they should gather up again to raise some more money so they could properly equip the game's drug-testing laboratories...RIGHT? After all...no-one else seems to care about the drug problem in the game either. :ThmbUp:

Now you are starting to get it!

Glad to help move you into a more solution oriented direction.

jay68802
03-08-2018, 02:08 AM
Since the bettors are the ones who want things fixed, why don't the bettors get together and pay for all the updates to fix the things they chronically whine about?

The bettors do provide the funding for this. It is called take out, and breakage. The "whine" you are hearing is the bettors wondering why the tracks spend the money we give them the way they do.

CincyHorseplayer
03-08-2018, 02:56 AM
I have odds go up regularly. Why are you betting odds that are so close to being unacceptable? If the outcome isn't worth X why are you betting at all? I find this a rational argument for being willfully dumb.

CincyHorseplayer
03-08-2018, 02:57 AM
Or just an all-purpose troll.

You go boy!:headbanger:

CincyHorseplayer
03-08-2018, 03:03 AM
Since the bettors are the ones who want things fixed, why don't the bettors get together and pay for all the updates to fix the things they chronically whine about?

This post needs an award for something. Can't quite put a finger on it but it is spectacular!

Tom
03-08-2018, 08:51 AM
This post needs an award for something. Can't quite put a finger on it but it is spectacular!

How about the Flying Fickle Finger of fate Award?

castaway01
03-08-2018, 09:37 AM
I have odds go up regularly. Why are you betting odds that are so close to being unacceptable? If the outcome isn't worth X why are you betting at all? I find this a rational argument for being willfully dumb.

I guess you're just trolling too, but obviously if some horses' odds are dropping, others are going up. The point is that the odds on the winners are usually the ones that are dropping. There are other possible explanations than cheating or past posting, but pointing out that some horses' odds go up when others go down is simple math, not a solution.

jay68802
03-08-2018, 11:03 AM
How the last drop did at Gulfstream did yesterday. The winner is Blue, The betting choice is in green. Odds are shown for when the first horse loaded, the odds of the last dump into the win pool, and final odds.

cj
03-08-2018, 12:10 PM
How the last drop did at Gulfstream did yesterday. The winner is Blue, The betting choice is in green. Odds are shown for when the first horse loaded, the odds of the last dump into the win pool, and final odds.

Is there supposed to be an image here or something?

jay68802
03-08-2018, 01:00 PM
Is there supposed to be an image here or something?

Yes, but at the moment i am having a problem with the attachment. Working on it.

jay68802
03-08-2018, 01:35 PM
RACE 1 PP 1 2 3 4 5 6 LD %
PT ODDS 12-1 3-1 8-5 3-1 5-2 38-1 0.22
ODDS LD 14 7-1 1.3 3-1 7-1 100-1
F ODDS 12-1 7-1 3-2 3-1 3-1 45-1

RACE 2 PP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 LD %
PT ODDS 7-2 9-5 30-1 6-1 16-1 6-1 5-2 0.33
ODDS LD 9-2 2-3 200 14-1 80-1 14-1 14-1
F ODDS 7-2 1-1 41-1 7-1 22-1 7-1 7-2

RACE 3 PP 1 2 3 4 5 6 LD %
PT ODDS 13-1 2-1 2-1 5-2 17-1 7-2 0.42
ODDS LD 50-1 13-4 11-2 1-1 30-1 15-1
F ODDS 18-1 5-2 5-2 7-5 19-1 5-1

RACE 4 PP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 LD %
PT ODDS 8-1 2-1 2-1 9-2 22-1 3-1 0.41
ODDS LD 5-1 7-2 11-4 9-2 80-1 S 11-2
F ODDS 5-1 5-2 2-1 4-1 32-1 7-2

RACE 5 PP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 LD %
PT ODDS 7-2 8-1 26-1 2-1 9-1 20-1 28-1 9-2 18-1 5-1 0.36
ODDS LD 11-1 15-2 66-1 15-8 25-1 50-1 40-1 4-1 66-1 15-2
F ODDS 9-2 7-1 33-1 9-5 12-1 24-1 28-1 7-2 24-1 5-1

RACE 6 PP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 LD %
PT ODDS 10-1 5-1 4-1 5-1 24-1 39-1 3-5 0.35
ODDS LD 9-1 8-1 9-1 12-1 90-1 150-1 4-6
F ODDS 8-1 6-1 5-1 6-1 31-1 51-1 3-5

RACE 7 PP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 LD %
PT ODDS 8-1 9-2 13-1 8-5 33-1 2-1 5-1 0.37
ODDS LD 18-1 13-4 16-1 2-1 100-1 9-2 15-2
F ODDS 10-1 7-2 13-1 8-5 41-1 5-2 5-1

RACE 8 PP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 LD %
PT ODDS 9-5 9-1 22-1 26-1 47-1 7-1 4-5 0.39
ODDS LD 4-1 35-1 80-1 450-1 660-1 33-1 4-11
F ODDS 2-1 13-1 31-1 42-1 76-1 10-1 2-5

RACE 9 PP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 LD %
PT ODDS 8-1 3-1 18-1 9-5 LS 11-1 5-2 0.39
ODDS LD 8-1 12-1 40-1 7-2 LS 20-1 13-2
F ODDS 7-1 3-1 16-1 7-5 LS 9-1 2-1

RACE 10 PP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 LD %
PT ODDS 14-1 7-2 8-1 7-2 7-1 8-1 5-2 15 26 29 0.40
ODDS LD 15-2 5-1 16-1 6-1 15-1 25-1 13-8 55-1 200-1 200-1
F ODDS 9-1 7-2 9-1 4-1 9-1 11-1 9-5 21 39 44

DGroundhog
03-08-2018, 01:37 PM
The bettors do provide the funding for this. It is called take out, and breakage. The "whine" you are hearing is the bettors wondering why the tracks spend the money we give them the way they do.

The flip side of that argument is that racetrack owners provided the funds to build a facility, offer purse money, a means for wagering, etc.

Bettors are merely purchasing a wager.

If you want to fix the problem, get involved.

https://www.ua-rtip.org/

Complete the course, get hired, and fix all the problems.

thaskalos
03-08-2018, 02:20 PM
The flip side of that argument is that racetrack owners provided the funds to build a facility, offer purse money, a means for wagering, etc.

Bettors are merely purchasing a wager.

If you want to fix the problem, get involved.

https://www.ua-rtip.org/

Complete the course, get hired, and fix all the problems.

The problem-fixing should be done by the racetrack owners, who spent the money to build the facility...NO? I mean...when a grocery store is floundering, should the CUSTOMERS be the ones obligated to "fix" the store's problems? The customers may "whine" about the store's decline...but they don't much care about the store's "future". There is always another store not far away.

The business owners don't just put up the money to "build the facility". They also bear the responsibility associated with keeping the business on sound financial ground. And they shoulder the blame when it's not.

Poindexter
03-08-2018, 02:28 PM
The flip side of that argument is that racetrack owners provided the funds to build a facility, offer purse money, a means for wagering, etc.

Bettors are merely purchasing a wager.

If you want to fix the problem, get involved.

https://www.ua-rtip.org/

Complete the course, get hired, and fix all the problems.

I am motivated now.:jump::jump::jump::jump: Can you give us 3 innovative ideas that came from former students of this program in the last 10 years that has made racing great again. I don't think racing is that great right now, so I doubt it. But I am all ears.

By the way bettors may merely be purchasing a wager, but without them there is no industry. Racetracks need them, Whales need them, horsemen need them. Bettors have a whole variety of other options and don't need racing.

thaskalos
03-08-2018, 02:34 PM
I am motivated now.:jump::jump::jump::jump: Can you give us 3 innovative ideas that came from former students of this program in the last 10 years that has made racing great again. I don't think racing is that great right now, so I doubt it. But I am all ears.

By the way bettors may merely be purchasing a wager, but without them there is no industry. Racetracks need them, Whales need them, horsemen need them. Bettors have a whole variety of other options and don't need racing.

Wait a second now. Wasn't it an Arizona U Racing-Program student who thought up that cute "Go Baby Go" advertising slogan that the NTRA was using up'til a couple of years ago? :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Tom
03-08-2018, 03:14 PM
Bettors are merely purchasing a wager.
If you want to fix the problem, get involved.

Yeah, right.
I think Sears charges too much for shirts, so instead of going to Penny's, I should go get a job at Sears and fix the problem?

Are you kidding??? :bang::bang::bang:

The way to 'fix" a problem, as a CUSTOMER is to stop shopping there. Being a CUSTOMER, we have certain expectations, one of them NOT being to FIX the problem's of the retailer.

Tom
03-08-2018, 03:16 PM
Wait a second now. Wasn't it an Arizona U Racing-Program student who thought up that cute "Go Baby Go" advertising slogan that the NTRA was using up'til a couple of years ago? :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Yes, and when that slogan came out, didn't they use it to cultivate NEW customers by running the commercials on HORSE RACING TV SHOWS??? :pound::pound::pound::pound:

You can't fix stupid!

jay68802
03-08-2018, 03:52 PM
The flip side of that argument is that racetrack owners provided the funds to build a facility, offer purse money, a means for wagering, etc.

Bettors are merely purchasing a wager.

If you want to fix the problem, get involved.

https://www.ua-rtip.org/

Complete the course, get hired, and fix all the problems.

Thanks, but I already have a degree. I also own my own business. But, unlike the tracks, I understand that getting and keeping customers is a priority. I re-invest the money they give me to give them a product that meets their standards. I know what their standards are because I listen to what they have to tell me. If I do not do this, I end up losing customers and am unable to grow my business. Business 101.

DGroundhog
03-08-2018, 07:28 PM
The problem-fixing should be done by the racetrack owners, who spent the money to build the facility...NO? I mean...when a grocery store is floundering, should the CUSTOMERS be the ones obligated to "fix" the store's problems? The customers may "whine" about the store's decline...but they don't much care about the store's "future". There is always another store not far away.

The business owners don't just put up the money to "build the facility". They also bear the responsibility associated with keeping the business on sound financial ground. And they shoulder the blame when it's not.

Let's say they owners decide to 'fix' the problem with updating odds. The money isn't going to just magically appear. They would likely raise the takeouts to fund the upgrade - which bettors would complain about and probably launch a boycott (like they did when Keeneland tried to raise takeout).

Would you accept a raise in takeouts to fund updating the current system?

DGroundhog
03-08-2018, 07:30 PM
I am motivated now.:jump::jump::jump::jump: Can you give us 3 innovative ideas that came from former students of this program in the last 10 years that has made racing great again. I don't think racing is that great right now, so I doubt it. But I am all ears.

By the way bettors may merely be purchasing a wager, but without them there is no industry. Racetracks need them, Whales need them, horsemen need them. Bettors have a whole variety of other options and don't need racing.

Apparently nobody as smart as you guys has ever completed the course or gotten a job managing a racetrack to fix all these problems. That is why I am suggesting we get some real talent in the pipeline so the issues can be fixed.

DGroundhog
03-08-2018, 07:50 PM
Thanks, but I already have a degree. I also own my own business. But, unlike the tracks, I understand that getting and keeping customers is a priority. I re-invest the money they give me to give them a product that meets their standards. I know what their standards are because I listen to what they have to tell me. If I do not do this, I end up losing customers and am unable to grow my business. Business 101.

Right. Racetracks don't understand business at all. They are making tons of money and lighting Cuban cigars with $100 bills instead of upgrading their product.

Tom
03-08-2018, 08:16 PM
Let's say they owners decide to 'fix' the problem with updating odds. The money isn't going to just magically appear. They would likely raise the takeouts to fund the upgrade - which bettors would complain about and probably launch a boycott (like they did when Keeneland tried to raise takeout).

Would you accept a raise in takeouts to fund updating the current system?

What track do you work for again?

Next thing you will say is we should take the initiative to bring our own timers if we are going to whine about the track morons inability to time a race.

I would suggest the racetrack employees are vastly over-paid for the crappy products they put out and should take pay cuts to bring the track up to a minimally acceptable level.

Btw, the Kennland Boycott worked. How did those stupid, whining bettors ever pull that one off?

No one with half a brain needs to take that class you suggested - a simpleton could improve most race tracks off the top of his head. It's only rocket science when you are an idiot.

jay68802
03-08-2018, 09:28 PM
Right. Racetracks don't understand business at all. They are making tons of money and lighting Cuban cigars with $100 bills instead of upgrading their product.

Your getting warmer. They understand business. They also face a customer base that is declining and has lost confidence that the industry, as a whole, values them.

Dave Schwartz
03-08-2018, 09:46 PM
Apparently nobody as smart as you guys has ever completed the course or gotten a job managing a racetrack to fix all these problems. That is why I am suggesting we get some real talent in the pipeline so the issues can be fixed.

Mr. DGHog,

Are you saying that you believe the tracks would take advice from actual bettors?

I ask, because it appears that is something that has rarely, if ever, happened.


Dave Schwartz

oughtoh
03-09-2018, 12:40 AM
Hollywood Park used the GoBabyGo slogan 19 years ago. Reason I remember is my daughter was in a study at Kaiser for 2 years after she was born. They came out to the house to see how she was learning. They asked her what a dog said and then what a cat said. When she asked her what a horse said she said GoBabyGo. The nurse looked at us and asked again, she said the same thing. We had to explain to the nurse that she would watch the replay shows with me everynight and that was the slogan they would use on their commercials.

Ruffian1
03-09-2018, 07:12 AM
Hollywood Park used the GoBabyGo slogan 19 years ago. Reason I remember is my daughter was in a study at Kaiser for 2 years after she was born. They came out to the house to see how she was learning. They asked her what a dog said and then what a cat said. When she asked her what a horse said she said GoBabyGo. The nurse looked at us and asked again, she said the same thing. We had to explain to the nurse that she would watch the replay shows with me everynight and that was the slogan they would use on their commercials.


What a great story !

Thank you for sharing that.

AlsoEligible
03-09-2018, 12:33 PM
Apparently nobody as smart as you guys has ever completed the course or gotten a job managing a racetrack to fix all these problems. That is why I am suggesting we get some real talent in the pipeline so the issues can be fixed.

The talent is already out there. I know plenty of people who have come out of the program within the last decade who have good and innovative ideas. But there's a huge difference between having an idea, and convincing the forces of nature already entrenched in the industry to implement said new idea. If you do work in the industry, then you should know that already.

Regardless, telling people that if they don't like the way things are, they should relocate to Arizona to take a college course and then work in the industry to fix it...that's has to be trolling, right?

They're gamblers. Our job is to give them a good product worth investing their money in. If we're not doing that, they will (and should) go find something else to play.

Attitudes like this are what convince me that horse racing is not going to survive the legalization of sports betting. But maybe when there's only 10 tracks left in the country, and only a handful of off-track wagering sources, we can finally get the odds updates down to 5 seconds.

Dave Schwartz
03-09-2018, 12:45 PM
The talent is already out there. I know plenty of people who have come out of the program within the last decade who have good and innovative ideas. But there's a huge difference between having an idea, and convincing the forces of nature already entrenched in the industry to implement said new idea. If you do work in the industry, then you should know that already.

Regardless, telling people that if they don't like the way things are, they should relocate to Arizona to take a college course and then work in the industry to fix it...that's has to be trolling, right?

They're gamblers. Our job is to give them a good product worth investing their money in. If we're not doing that, they will (and should) go find something else to play.

Attitudes like this are what convince me that horse racing is not going to survive the legalization of sports betting. But maybe when there's only 10 tracks left in the country, and only a handful of off-track wagering sources, we can finally get the odds updates down to 5 seconds.

Great post.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

DGroundhog
03-09-2018, 01:29 PM
What track do you work for again?

Next thing you will say is we should take the initiative to bring our own timers if we are going to whine about the track morons inability to time a race.

I would suggest the racetrack employees are vastly over-paid for the crappy products they put out and should take pay cuts to bring the track up to a minimally acceptable level.

Btw, the Kennland Boycott worked. How did those stupid, whining bettors ever pull that one off?

No one with half a brain needs to take that class you suggested - a simpleton could improve most race tracks off the top of his head. It's only rocket science when you are an idiot.

Well, then they should apply for a position to manage a race track and fix the problems.

...or you can continue to complain from behind a monitor.

DGroundhog
03-09-2018, 01:33 PM
Mr. DGHog,

Are you saying that you believe the tracks would take advice from actual bettors?

I ask, because it appears that is something that has rarely, if ever, happened.


Dave Schwartz

AlsoEligible already laid out things the race tracks have done to address the complaints about late odds changes. There are even some additional things that have been done. There HAS been an improvement - but you don't see any praise for what has been done or what has been improved upon. Just the same old complaints.

Dave Schwartz
03-09-2018, 02:02 PM
AlsoEligible already laid out things the race tracks have done to address the complaints about late odds changes. There are even some additional things that have been done. There HAS been an improvement - but you don't see any praise for what has been done or what has been improved upon. Just the same old complaints.

The system is archaic. Taking a 1980s-era system to an early Y2k system does not qualify as progress.

In fact, the entire game itself is archaic in so many ways.

There are so many people who believe that horse racing has an integrity level on par with WWF.

We live in an age where integrity COULD and SHOULD be as close to perfect as possible. "Improvement" is just not enough if the industry expects to survive.

What do I mean by "close to perfect?"
Cheating demands a stiff penalty.

1st offense 5 years
2nd offense lifetime


Should every bettor on every wager not have the expectation that the game's integrity is solid?

While Pete Rose's penalty was probably too severe, the message was sent pretty clearly.

DGroundhog
03-09-2018, 02:13 PM
The talent is already out there. I know plenty of people who have come out of the program within the last decade who have good and innovative ideas. But there's a huge difference between having an idea, and convincing the forces of nature already entrenched in the industry to implement said new idea. If you do work in the industry, then you should know that already.

Regardless, telling people that if they don't like the way things are, they should relocate to Arizona to take a college course and then work in the industry to fix it...that's has to be trolling, right?

They're gamblers. Our job is to give them a good product worth investing their money in. If we're not doing that, they will (and should) go find something else to play.

Attitudes like this are what convince me that horse racing is not going to survive the legalization of sports betting. But maybe when there's only 10 tracks left in the country, and only a handful of off-track wagering sources, we can finally get the odds updates down to 5 seconds.

I agree there is talent already in the pipeline and working to fix issues. My comment was tongue in cheek. If some think it is so easy to fix the problems, then why not encourage them to do so?

There might have been a bit of trolling involved, but it was more an effort to get them thinking about how much change they would actually be able to implement with any sort of fiscal responsibility.

You have quite a bit of patience, knowledge, empathy and do an excellent job trying to reassure people that their complaints are being addressed. I commend you for that.

...but how do you get thru to them if they are unwilling to accept what you have just explained? If logic, reason and facts don't work, maybe a little sarcasm might?

DGroundhog
03-09-2018, 02:30 PM
The system is archaic. Taking a 1980s-era system to an early Y2k system does not qualify as progress.

In fact, the entire game itself is archaic in so many ways.

There are so many people who believe that horse racing has an integrity level on par with WWF.

We live in an age where integrity COULD and SHOULD be as close to perfect as possible. "Improvement" is just not enough if the industry expects to survive.

What do I mean by "close to perfect?"
Cheating demands a stiff penalty.

1st offense 5 years
2nd offense lifetime


Should every bettor on every wager not have the expectation that the game's integrity is solid?

While Pete Rose's penalty was probably too severe, the message was sent pretty clearly.

1980s era? You are being far too generous. It's a mish mash of 1960s, 1980s and modern era equipment - and THAT might even be too generous (depending on the track).

The sport suffers from many of the same issues that other sports and gambling suffers from, and there are steps in place to try to combat that.

Lance Armstrong won multiple Tour de Frances before his doping was uncovered. Card counters, players or referees influencing game outcomes and other systems of 'cheating' are not as uncommon as they should be, and may never be.

Tracks do what they can, when they can for the most part. They do want a fair game. They do listen to reasonable complaints. Not everybody accepts that and I've seen numerous comments of 'the tracks hate us' or similar used.

Some people are nearly impossible to satisfy. They want their Oompa Loompa and they want it NOW!

Tom
03-09-2018, 02:54 PM
There HAS been an improvement - but you don't see any praise for what has been done or what has been improved upon. Just the same old complaints.

Praise?
I called them morons, or maybe idiots, I forget.
THAT is what they deserve.

I have already fixed the problem for myself - by cutting my betting by over 90% the last few years. I am not alone, and if YOU are a spokesman for the tracks, there will be many more.
Apparently that so-called "course" you are harping on is worthless, because the problem ain't fixed and it ain't rocket science to fix it. But with attitudes like yours, I can see why. Let the CUSTOMERS fix it??? You are a joke.

When I hear "same old complaints" hat come to mind is "same old idiots' in charge.

Henry Ford once bragged that people could buy any color they wanted, as long as it was black. You know what they bought?

Chevys.

DGroundhog
03-09-2018, 05:35 PM
Praise?
I called them morons, or maybe idiots, I forget.
THAT is what they deserve.

I have already fixed the problem for myself - by cutting my betting by over 90% the last few years. I am not alone, and if YOU are a spokesman for the tracks, there will be many more.
Apparently that so-called "course" you are harping on is worthless, because the problem ain't fixed and it ain't rocket science to fix it. But with attitudes like yours, I can see why. Let the CUSTOMERS fix it??? You are a joke.

When I hear "same old complaints" hat come to mind is "same old idiots' in charge.

Henry Ford once bragged that people could buy any color they wanted, as long as it was black. You know what they bought?

Chevys.

You blanket insult them, but you expect them to treat you with respect, listen closely to your complaints and address them?

I'm definitely not a spokesman. Too brutally honest for that.

I don't think you even understand what is involved in fixing the problem, so uninformed criticism isn't really constructive.

I'm not saying 'let the customers fix it'. I'm saying if you are so willing to criticize race tracks for not fixing the problem, why not consider trying to fix the problems from the inside?

Dave Schwartz
03-09-2018, 05:38 PM
1980s era? You are being far too generous. It's a mish mash of 1960s, 1980s and modern era equipment - and THAT might even be too generous (depending on the track).

The sport suffers from many of the same issues that other sports and gambling suffers from, and there are steps in place to try to combat that.

Tracks do what they can, when they can for the most part. They do want a fair game. They do listen to reasonable complaints. Not everybody accepts that and I've seen numerous comments of 'the tracks hate us' or similar used.

Some people are nearly impossible to satisfy. They want their Oompa Loompa and they want it NOW!

Yes, the tracks have always been customer-first.

:bang::lol::rolleyes:

:rolleyes::rolleyes:

thaskalos
03-09-2018, 05:45 PM
1980s era? You are being far too generous. It's a mish mash of 1960s, 1980s and modern era equipment - and THAT might even be too generous (depending on the track).

The sport suffers from many of the same issues that other sports and gambling suffers from, and there are steps in place to try to combat that.

Lance Armstrong won multiple Tour de Frances before his doping was uncovered. Card counters, players or referees influencing game outcomes and other systems of 'cheating' are not as uncommon as they should be, and may never be.

Tracks do what they can, when they can for the most part. They do want a fair game. They do listen to reasonable complaints. Not everybody accepts that and I've seen numerous comments of 'the tracks hate us' or similar used.

Some people are nearly impossible to satisfy. They want their Oompa Loompa and they want it NOW!

I, for one, am quite satisfied with the job that the tracks are doing. They are efficiently siphoning their takeout from the betting pools without any hitch whatsoever. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

jay68802
03-09-2018, 06:09 PM
How the 10th a GS was bet Today.


Post Pos 2 3 4 5 6 7

Gate Odds 7-1 4-1 6-1 20-1 1-2 19-1

LD Odds 3-1 5-2 18-1 7-1 6-1 12-1

Final Odds 9-2 3-1 7-1 12-1 4-5 15-1


Gate Odds are taken when the first horse enters the gate. The final odds are self explanatory. The last dump odds are the odds the horses were bet in the last dump. For this week the last dump has averaged 36% of the win pool. For this race it was 23 percent of the win pool. 1 of two races where the last dump was under 30 percent.

jay68802
03-09-2018, 10:22 PM
How the 10th a GS was bet Today.


Post Pos........2........3.......4.........5.........6. ........7

Gate Odds....7-1.....4-1.....6-1....20-1.....1-2.....19-1

LD Odds......3-1.....5-2.....18-1....7-1......6-1.....12-1

Final Odds....9-2.....3-1.....7-1.....12-1....4-5.....15-1


Gate Odds are taken when the first horse enters the gate. The final odds are self explanatory. The last dump odds are the odds the horses were bet in the last dump. For this week the last dump has averaged 36% of the win pool. For this race it was 23 percent of the win pool. 1 of two races where the last dump was under 30 percent.

this is easier to look at.

jay68802
03-09-2018, 11:52 PM
In the last 3 days, the top choice in the last dump has won 12 of 32 races. The second choice in the last dump has also won 12 of 32 races. So the top 2 choices have won 75% of the races.

DGroundhog
03-10-2018, 01:06 AM
How the 10th a GS was bet Today.


Post Pos 2 3 4 5 6 7

Gate Odds 7-1 4-1 6-1 20-1 1-2 19-1

LD Odds 3-1 5-2 18-1 7-1 6-1 12-1

Final Odds 9-2 3-1 7-1 12-1 4-5 15-1


Gate Odds are taken when the first horse enters the gate. The final odds are self explanatory. The last dump odds are the odds the horses were bet in the last dump. For this week the last dump has averaged 36% of the win pool. For this race it was 23 percent of the win pool. 1 of two races where the last dump was under 30 percent.

...and how do you propose race tracks stop that 'last dump'? The 'last dump' is very different from odds changing during the race - which, unless you want to stop betting when the horses start to load is inevitable.

Several years back, Belmont (maybe all NY tracks) locked betting when horses started to load. I have never heard so much bitching as when pools would lock when horses started to load - but hey, at least the odds weren't changing during the race.

There is literally no pleasing some of you people. What do you want? No odds changes during the race - or no 'final dump' odds change?

DGroundhog
03-10-2018, 01:12 AM
In the last 3 days, the top choice in the last dump has won 12 of 32 races. The second choice in the last dump has also won 12 of 32 races. So the top 2 choices have won 75% of the races.

So you are saying horse player should bet sooner and not wait until the last minute? Maybe they should also quit complaining when they get shut out because they waited so long?

What is your solution?

DGroundhog
03-10-2018, 01:18 AM
I, for one, am quite satisfied with the job that the tracks are doing. They are efficiently siphoning their takeout from the betting pools without any hitch whatsoever. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

OMG, tracks take a percentage of the purses to fund racing! The horror.... the horror....

The tracks themselves only get a fraction of the takeout. Why aren't you complaining about the State's chunk or the HBPA's chunk?

You know what I hardly ever hear complaints about? The approximately 50% takeout from lottery players or pull tab players. They are getting ROYALLY SCREWED, but hardly any complaints at all.

DGroundhog
03-10-2018, 01:22 AM
Yes, the tracks have always been customer-first.

:bang::lol::rolleyes:

:rolleyes::rolleyes:

OK, your position is the race tracks are horrible businessmen and they hate the customers.

:bang::lol::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

DGroundhog
03-10-2018, 01:27 AM
...and how do you propose race tracks stop that 'last dump'? The 'last dump' is very different from odds changing during the race - which, unless you want to stop betting when the horses start to load is inevitable.

Several years back, Belmont (maybe all NY tracks) locked betting when horses started to load. I have never heard so much bitching as when pools would lock when horses started to load - but hey, at least the odds weren't changing during the race.

There is literally no pleasing some of you people. What do you want? No odds changes during the race - or no 'final dump' odds change?

Here is a solution to attempt to stop the 'last dump' situation. Random pool closings. Sometimes you can bet until the gate opens, sometimes you are locked at 2 minutes to post. It's all random. Better get your bets in early!

You think that will stop complaints - or increase them? It WILL force (some) people to bet earlier, and eliminate, occasionally, such dramatic swings in the pools. Maybe.

What is a better solution?

Track Phantom
03-10-2018, 01:47 AM
In the last 3 days, the top choice in the last dump has won 12 of 32 races. The second choice in the last dump has also won 12 of 32 races. So the top 2 choices have won 75% of the races.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLmVTr9hq8Q

This is EXACTLY why the game is floundering. Smart money has turned into Nostradamus.

It's incredible how often the late money is right on. You'll see a horse at 6-5 morning fluctuate between 3-5 and even money for 17 minutes. The last click he'll be 9-5 and a 7-2 morning line runner (who had been hovering around 3-1) is now 6-5 and wins by a football field.

I have no idea what type of nefarious behavior is giving the late money the edge but it is impossible for people to be THAT right using the same rudimentary data we all have. IM-POS-SIB-LE

DGroundhog
03-10-2018, 02:11 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLmVTr9hq8Q

This is EXACTLY why the game is floundering. Smart money has turned into Nostradamus.

It's incredible how often the late money is right on. You'll see a horse at 6-5 morning fluctuate between 3-5 and even money for 17 minutes. The last click he'll be 9-5 and a 7-2 morning line runner (who had been hovering around 3-1) is now 6-5 and wins by a football field.

I have no idea what type of nefarious behavior is giving the late money the edge but it is impossible for people to be THAT right using the same rudimentary data we all have. IM-POS-SIB-LE

The post time favorite wins approximately 35% of the time. 12 of 32 is 37.5% of the time, and from this - about as small a sample as could be reasonably expected to gather any sort of reasonable data from - that seems within the typical standard deviation of win percentage (less than 30 samples is really not a good sample size, 32 is barely passing).

If there are heavy favorites over representing the sample set - then the win percentage would probably increase. I see nothing in the sample set that would suggest anything nefarious is occurring.

thaskalos
03-10-2018, 02:18 AM
OK, your position is the race tracks are horrible businessmen and they hate the customers.

:bang::lol::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

And your position is, WHAT? That the racetracks are "GREAT businessmen", who "LOVE their customers"?
:bang::lol::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

DGroundhog
03-10-2018, 02:22 AM
And your position is, WHAT? That the racetracks are "GREAT businessmen", who "LOVE their customers"?
:bang::lol::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

I would suggest competent businessmen who reasonably listen to concerns and address what they can.

AlsoEligible is likely one of them. Todd Bowker is also another. I am not. Pry them for info, and accept what they have to say. They seem like reasonable and informed people who are good representatives for the industry.

Track Phantom
03-10-2018, 02:31 AM
The post time favorite wins approximately 35% of the time. 12 of 32 is 37.5% of the time, and from this - about as small a sample as could be reasonably expected to gather any sort of reasonable data from - that seems within the typical standard deviation of win percentage (less than 30 samples is really not a good sample size, 32 is barely passing).

If there are heavy favorites over representing the sample set - then the win percentage would probably increase. I see nothing in the sample set that would suggest anything nefarious is occurring.

Is he speaking about the lowest priced horse on the board after the last betting or the horse who got the most money in the final rush of betting? I understood it to be the latter.

Not sure how you quantify it but those runners getting a "disproportionate" amount of money on the final click relative to the betting during the previous 20 minutes is what I care about. I bet that would be an interesting report.

thaskalos
03-10-2018, 02:33 AM
I would suggest competent businessmen who reasonably listen to concerns and address what they can.

AlsoEligible is likely one of them. Todd Bowker is also another. I am not. Pry them for info, and accept what they have to say. They seem like reasonable and informed people who are good representatives for the industry.

I'm sure that AlsoEligible and Toddbowker are great guys...but I won't pry them for any information. I've been in the game for a long while myself...and I've conversed with several high-ranking racetrack officials in my day. I've also attended several racing-board meetings in my jurisdiction...and have even stood up to speak on two occasions, trying to voice the concerns of the bettors on several of the key issues on the then agenda. Consequently...I learned all that I need to know about the "leadership" of this game. IMO...it leaves a lot to be desired.

DGroundhog
03-10-2018, 02:40 AM
I would suggest competent businessmen who reasonably listen to concerns and address what they can.

AlsoEligible is likely one of them. Todd Bowker is also another. I am not. Pry them for info, and accept what they have to say. They seem like reasonable and informed people who are good representatives for the industry.

..and I would add that they appear to LOVE this industry. I do as well, but have a different perspective. Much of it as a typical fan.

As a typical fan, I would present that there are a significant number of people at the racetrack that I really only get mild amusement from. They complain, every race is fixed, the jockey didn't ride right, they almost bet that horse, the odds changed, etc. etc. etc.

If you hang out at the race track with any reasonable frequency and are objective, you might be thinking, yeah - there is some truth to that.

The racetracks don't hate you. They want to deliver a product you are satisfied with. They aren't terrible businessmen who profit when you don't cash. Almost everybody in the industry likes it, loves it or has made it their life (probably tending towards the latter) - even though it is a failing product that needs new blood. That is a simple and undeniable fact.

thaskalos
03-10-2018, 02:48 AM
..and I would add that they appear to LOVE this industry. I do as well, but have a different perspective. Much of it as a typical fan.

As a typical fan, I would present that there are a significant number of people at the racetrack that I really only get mild amusement from. They complain, every race is fixed, the jockey didn't ride right, they almost bet that horse, the odds changed, etc. etc. etc.

If you hang out at the race track with any reasonable frequency and are objective, you might be thinking, yeah - there is some truth to that.

The racetracks don't hate you. They want to deliver a product you are satisfied with. They aren't terrible businessmen who profit when you don't cash. Almost everybody in the industry likes it, loves it or has made it their life (probably tending towards the latter) - even though it is a failing product that needs new blood. That is a simple and undeniable fact.

You are entitled to your opinion...even if that opinion is misguided. I think most of us here have been around the block a few times in this game...and we pretty much know what the "racing industry" thinks of its customers. As far as I am concerned...a "failing product" is exactly what this industry deserves.