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Lemon Drop Husker
12-15-2017, 08:55 PM
I haven't been the biggest fan of this race, as it never really made sense to me from a monetary standpoint.

Either way, this year's edition may well set up to be a really damn good race.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Pegasus_World_Cup_field_Tracking_the_2018_contende rs_123#

Likely contenders:

Gun Runner
Collected
West Coast
Gunnevera
Forever Unbridled
Seeking the Soul
Sharp Azteca
Toast of New York
War Story

Other possibles being Mind Your Biscuits and Stellar Wind

ronsmac
12-15-2017, 09:36 PM
I haven't been the biggest fan of this race, as it never really made sense to me from a monetary standpoint.

Either way, this year's edition may well set up to be a really damn good race.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Pegasus_World_Cup_field_Tracking_the_2018_contende rs_123#

Likely contenders:

Gun Runner
Collected
West Coast
Gunnevera
Forever Unbridled
Seeking the Soul
Sharp Azteca
Toast of New York
War Story

Other possibles being Mind Your Biscuits and Stellar WindYou don't like stakes races with 12 horse fields?

dilanesp
12-15-2017, 10:10 PM
I am looking forward to seeing West Coast at 4. He was improving with every start at 3.

Lemon Drop Husker
12-15-2017, 10:38 PM
I am looking forward to seeing West Coast at 4. He was improving with every start at 3.

Am as well. Could be a monster. :coffee:

Lemon Drop Husker
12-15-2017, 10:41 PM
You don't like stakes races with 12 horse fields?

Yeah. Well..

I just didn't see it fitting in the calendar for top end horses that aren't in the breeding shed.

Now?

It makes sense.

Why not gear a great horse around a BC/Pegasus/World Cup payout extravaganza?

The new age older horse Triple Crown?

Redboard
12-15-2017, 11:00 PM
Pegasus? Bring it on. Nothing else happening. I'll be watching. The only thing I'd like to see is Arrogate get another chance. I know Baffert said He's not the same horse and He's not going to run him again, but , I can't help thinking that We'll never know if it was the Delmar track. Maybe he didn't like those condos on the hill, I don't. The horse is not injured and it wouldn't devalue his stud value one penny. He is the defending champ and a horse people want to see.
And you could be damm sure he'd get some interest at the window, hey, I'd take him at 25-1.

Lemon Drop Husker
12-15-2017, 11:34 PM
Pegasus? Bring it on. Nothing else happening. I'll be watching. The only thing I'd like to see is Arrogate get another chance. I know Baffert said He's not the same horse and He's not going to run him again, but , I can't help thinking that We'll never know if it was the Delmar track. Maybe he didn't like those condos on the hill, I don't. The horse is not injured and it wouldn't devalue his stud value one penny. He is the defending champ and a horse people want to see.
And you could be damm sure he'd get some interest at the window, hey, I'd take him at 25-1.

Don't do that to me.

I want to see Arrogate run again.

dilanesp
12-16-2017, 12:33 AM
If Arrogate ran, I would bet everything in my pockets against him.

Lemon Drop Husker
12-16-2017, 02:22 AM
If Arrogate ran, I would bet everything in my pockets against him.

Even the keys to your Jaguar?

onefast99
12-16-2017, 08:46 AM
The Pegasus was designed to be a competitive race just like every other stakes race, but with the largest payout of any race in the world. Last year Arrogate was the top horse in the nation by far, California Chrome was on the return and the match race was on. The rest of the field was running for third and forth monies, Frank got the place with SG, after CC didn't take to the track. The media hype on CC vs Arrogate kept everyone glued to their TV that day. The t shirts and assorted fan gear at GP sold out the day of the race, the marketing was top notch!
Those who spent the 1 million for a starting spot or more have no remorse as it is evident they have that kind of money to spend.
This year the race will be a lot more competitive, just like how Frank planned it. The buzz is in the air at GP and throughout the racing world.

cj
12-16-2017, 01:19 PM
The Pegasus was designed to be a competitive race just like every other stakes race, but with the largest payout of any race in the world. Last year Arrogate was the top horse in the nation by far, California Chrome was on the return and the match race was on. The rest of the field was running for third and forth monies, Frank got the place with SG, after CC didn't take to the track. The media hype on CC vs Arrogate kept everyone glued to their TV that day. The t shirts and assorted fan gear at GP sold out the day of the race, the marketing was top notch!
Those who spent the 1 million for a starting spot or more have no remorse as it is evident they have that kind of money to spend.
This year the race will be a lot more competitive, just like how Frank planned it. The buzz is in the air at GP and throughout the racing world.

Side note, I don't think the track had anything to do with California Chrome's race that day. You sound like a horseman! :)

dilanesp
12-16-2017, 03:29 PM
Side note, I don't think the track had anything to do with California Chrome's race that day. You sound like a horseman! :)

Agreed. CC shot his wad in the BC Classic.

cj
12-16-2017, 07:20 PM
Agreed. CC shot his wad in the BC Classic.

He also had a pretty brutal trip in the Pegasus if memory serves.

onefast99
12-16-2017, 09:25 PM
Side note, I don't think the track had anything to do with California Chrome's race that day. You sound like a horseman! :)
Per Sherman after the race he didn't cool out well, looked like fluid on the right knee. At the half mile marker CC folded, if it was the track or the weight he carried no one will ever know.
Arrogate wasn't getting beat that day.

letswastemoney
12-16-2017, 10:10 PM
California Chrome's post position was brutal. He didn't clear on the first turn, and the pace wasn't slow, so it was too difficult to recover.

cj
12-16-2017, 11:11 PM
Per Sherman after the race he didn't cool out well, looked like fluid on the right knee. At the half mile marker CC folded, if it was the track or the weight he carried no one will ever know.
Arrogate wasn't getting beat that day.

I don't believe trainers any farther than I can throw them. They make a living with excuses. They even believe them sometimes, but that doesn't make them true.

Fager Fan
12-17-2017, 08:55 AM
I don't believe trainers any farther than I can throw them. They make a living with excuses. They even believe them sometimes, but that doesn't make them true.

It's called being a trainer. It's your job to try to understand all that your horses do. In any event, he didn't exit the race in perfect shape and was seen by Bramlage when he got to Ky.

dilanesp
12-17-2017, 02:56 PM
He also had a pretty brutal trip in the Pegasus if memory serves.

Yep.

cj
12-17-2017, 04:35 PM
It's called being a trainer. It's your job to try to understand all that your horses do. In any event, he didn't exit the race in perfect shape and was seen by Bramlage when he got to Ky.

There is a difference between understanding your horse and blaming the track. Whatever, he is retired, water under the bridge now.

Fager Fan
12-17-2017, 05:29 PM
There is a difference between understanding your horse and blaming the track. Whatever, he is retired, water under the bridge now.

I don't think it was the track either, but I'm constantly surprised that onlookers are surprised that trainers try to come up with explanations for performances. It's their job. It's what they do every day with their horses, trying to figure out each horse and try to get the best out of it. Handicappers of all people should understand that as every betting day they try to look for explanations for past performances and guess whether pace or surface or blinkers or post position or a myriad of other things may affect horses in the field.

If your point is that some can't always be believed, I'll grant you that. But it's some and not always. Some also tell the truth, and some do it always.

dilanesp
12-17-2017, 08:31 PM
I don't think it was the track either, but I'm constantly surprised that onlookers are surprised that trainers try to come up with explanations for performances. It's their job. It's what they do every day with their horses, trying to figure out each horse and try to get the best out of it. Handicappers of all people should understand that as every betting day they try to look for explanations for past performances and guess whether pace or surface or blinkers or post position or a myriad of other things may affect horses in the field.

If your point is that some can't always be believed, I'll grant you that. But it's some and not always. Some also tell the truth, and some do it always.

Reason and excuse are two different things.

A reason is supported by some evidence. "His post position cost him any chance in the race" is a reason.

If the jock comes back and says the horse was in distress and never got his footing and the trainer says "he didn't like the track", I have no objection.

But many times a trainer is just searching for anything to explain a poor performance, without any evidence. That's an excuse.

Fager Fan
12-17-2017, 09:52 PM
Reason and excuse are two different things.

A reason is supported by some evidence. "His post position cost him any chance in the race" is a reason.

If the jock comes back and says the horse was in distress and never got his footing and the trainer says "he didn't like the track", I have no objection.

But many times a trainer is just searching for anything to explain a poor performance, without any evidence. That's an excuse.

Maybe no evidence to you. In addition, horses don't speak, so it's not always as easy as you think.

It can be an educated guess, speculation, not always an "excuse" which has a negative implication.

onefast99
12-18-2017, 10:41 AM
Maybe no evidence to you. In addition, horses don't speak, so it's not always as easy as you think.

It can be an educated guess, speculation, not always an "excuse" which has a negative implication.Both sides of this argument have merit. I have heard from at least 6 trainers I have had over the past 15 years various explanations of why the horse didn't run his race, and then the jock would give his opinion and once a day went by and it wasn't anything physical I would know what was reality and what was BS. Anyone saying "many times a trainer is just searching for anything to explain a poor performance, without any evidence" is not true. There are a lot of variables, how do you know the horse didn't suffer an injury that 2 minutes after the race wasn't noticeable or the horse scopes poorly? There are no sensors that tell you "check your engine" and as you said horses don't speak!

cj
12-18-2017, 06:42 PM
Let me simplify what I was trying to say. Trainers often say things that aren't based in fact. That is fine, it is what they do and part of their job even. But when others start repeating what trainers say as if it is fact, I find that weird.

Anybody still believing Arrogate "didn't like the Del Mar surface"?

Afleet
12-18-2017, 07:27 PM
Anybody still believing Arrogate "didn't like the Del Mar surface"?

Gun Runner would have smoked him anywhere on planet earth

cj
12-18-2017, 08:05 PM
The absurdity continues.

http://www.drf.com/news/stronach-committee-review-horses-remaining-pegasus-slots

Fager Fan
12-18-2017, 09:26 PM
Let me simplify what I was trying to say. Trainers often say things that aren't based in fact. That is fine, it is what they do and part of their job even. But when others start repeating what trainers say as if it is fact, I find that weird.

Anybody still believing Arrogate "didn't like the Del Mar surface"?

I didn't believe it from the second he ran up the track the first time. Horses as supposedly good as Arrogate don't fall completely apart over any track surface.

But we have to use common sense too. What do you think the public reaction would be to, "He's got a physical issue that we're going to try to nurse him through in his few remaining races"? They'd go ballistic [not necessarily for good reason], and Baffert would be [rightly] run out of the business if the horse suffered a breakdown on the track.

Fager Fan
12-18-2017, 09:32 PM
The absurdity continues.

http://www.drf.com/news/stronach-committee-review-horses-remaining-pegasus-slots

What's absurd about it? I appreciate Stronach putting up his own money in trying to get this off the ground.

cj
12-19-2017, 01:18 AM
What's absurd about it? I appreciate Stronach putting up his own money in trying to get this off the ground.

Let's start with calling it a 16 million dollar race when almost half of that isn't even in play. Next, they couldn't sell the slots. So instead, Stronach "buys" them himself and will sell them off. So others had to pay full price, and the others come later will get a discount, probably a big discount. Next year why would anybody buy a slot? Just wait to Frank buys them again and pay him 10 cents on the dollar.

VigorsTheGrey
12-19-2017, 01:38 AM
Let's start with calling it a 16 million dollar race when almost half of that isn't even in play. Next, they couldn't sell the slots. So instead, Stronach "buys" them himself and will sell them off. So others had to pay full price, and the others come later will get a discount, probably a big discount. Next year why would anybody buy a slot? Just wait to Frank buys them again and pay him 10 cents on the dollar.

His accountant must love him..
It is starting to have the feel of an uneven playing field with parallels to recent BCBC imbalances...with one group having a share in more than 1 interest...

Fager Fan
12-19-2017, 08:57 AM
Let's start with calling it a 16 million dollar race when almost half of that isn't even in play. Next, they couldn't sell the slots. So instead, Stronach "buys" them himself and will sell them off. So others had to pay full price, and the others come later will get a discount, probably a big discount. Next year why would anybody buy a slot? Just wait to Frank buys them again and pay him 10 cents on the dollar.

He "buys" them himself? Are you trying to imply that he isn't going to have to come up with the $1m for each slot? He will, because it goes to the purse. He's going to work deals as best he can, just like any slot holder. If you think this bodes poorly for the future of his race, fine, but it's a stand-up move that he bought the remaining slots to guarantee the purse for the other slot holders.

cj
12-19-2017, 10:39 AM
He "buys" them himself? Are you trying to imply that he isn't going to have to come up with the $1m for each slot? He will, because it goes to the purse. He's going to work deals as best he can, just like any slot holder. If you think this bodes poorly for the future of his race, fine, but it's a stand-up move that he bought the remaining slots to guarantee the purse for the other slot holders.

I wasn't implying that at all. What else was he going to do, cancel the race? Why did you ignore the point I started with, that calling it a 16 million dollar race is a farce?

onefast99
12-19-2017, 11:05 AM
I wasn't implying that at all. What else was he going to do, cancel the race? Why did you ignore the point I started with, that calling it a 16 million dollar race is a farce?He may also have bought those last slots so one individual couldn't put a horse in the race
who was made famous over the summer starring in a youtube video, aka the Vegetable juice man!

VigorsTheGrey
12-19-2017, 12:57 PM
Not much on internet about the conditions of the Pegasus, but here is one of last years article for reference.

http://www.drf.com/news/daring-dozen-take-1m-plunge-win-12m-pegasus-world-cup

Fager Fan
12-19-2017, 03:28 PM
I wasn't implying that at all. What else was he going to do, cancel the race? Why did you ignore the point I started with, that calling it a 16 million dollar race is a farce?

Then why did you put "buy" in quotes? He bought them. He has to pay the $1m each if he can't sell them.

And where do you see that the $16m is a farce? Or that "half of that isn't even at play"? He upped the purse to $16m, with the track adding the additional $4m, so yes, the purse is now $16m.

I don't know the viability of this race long-term, but I hope it works out, and again, I appreciate a track/owner willing to step up like Stronach has in his attempt to make it work. Think Churchill would do the same, given they could easily pay 3 times the purse of the Pegasus to the Kentucky Derby and still make a handsome profit?

VigorsTheGrey
12-19-2017, 07:17 PM
" “We will not be getting back zero dollars, that’s for sure,” said Sol Kumin, in reference to the $250,000 purse guarantee and the revenue-sharing provisions."

$250,000 x 12 (for 12 entries) = $3 Million

$16 Million minus $3 Million = $13 Million

So if there are 8 outside entrants that's $2 Million of funds to spread around on pre-race costs, might even pay for a fella to buy in with a few in-house race-starters and figure out how to fund later after all the revenue has been made...lots of ways to wheel & deal.

VigorsTheGrey
12-19-2017, 07:54 PM
" “We will not be getting back zero dollars, that’s for sure,” said Sol Kumin, in reference to the $250,000 purse guarantee and the revenue-sharing provisions."

$250,000 x 12 (for 12 entries) = $3 Million

$16 Million minus $3 Million = $13 Million

So if there are 8 outside entrants that's $2 Million of funds to spread around on pre-race costs, might even pay for a fella to buy in with a few in-house race-starters and figure out how to fund later after all the revenue has been made...lots of ways to wheel & deal.

Sorry folks, got the above completely wrong....

""Under the structure of the race, each owner of a slot is given the right to start one horse in the Pegasus, which is being advertised as having a purse of $16 million, the largest in the world. The slots are considered marketable until the time of entry. Any horse that starts in the race is guaranteed to receive $650,000 of the purse regardless of finish position.

I think I read somewhere the deposit due in Dec was $350,000 each...

cj
12-19-2017, 08:25 PM
Then why did you put "buy" in quotes? He bought them. He has to pay the $1m each if he can't sell them.

And where do you see that the $16m is a farce? Or that "half of that isn't even at play"? He upped the purse to $16m, with the track adding the additional $4m, so yes, the purse is now $16m.

I don't know the viability of this race long-term, but I hope it works out, and again, I appreciate a track/owner willing to step up like Stronach has in his attempt to make it work. Think Churchill would do the same, given they could easily pay 3 times the purse of the Pegasus to the Kentucky Derby and still make a handsome profit?

You don't get it about the purse, and frankly I feel like I'd be wasting my time trying to explain it to you, so I'm moving on.

Fager Fan
12-19-2017, 08:35 PM
You don't get it about the purse, and frankly I feel like I'd be wasting my time trying to explain it to you, so I'm moving on.

That sounds like a spin instead of admitting that you were wrong.

So explain. If you can.

Trips
12-19-2017, 08:43 PM
That sounds like a spin instead of admitting that you were wrong.

So explain. If you can.
If 16 million is in play what would you expect first place to pay?

Fager Fan
12-19-2017, 08:44 PM
Let's start with calling it a 16 million dollar race when almost half of that isn't even in play. Next, they couldn't sell the slots. So instead, Stronach "buys" them himself and will sell them off. So others had to pay full price, and the others come later will get a discount, probably a big discount. Next year why would anybody buy a slot? Just wait to Frank buys them again and pay him 10 cents on the dollar.


You said "almost half of [$16m] isn't even in play." What? There's $12m from the sale of 12 slots, plus $4m put up by the track, so where do you figure "almost half" or almost $8m isn't part of the purse?

Stronach is "buying" the extra slots, despite your implication with the quote marks that he's really not.

Who said anyone is getting a discount, much less a "big discount", much less it going for "10 cents on the dollar" in the future? He may well sell one for $1m, or make a deal that ends up being worth more than $1m. At minimum, he sure won't sell one for less than $650k when the slot is guaranteed that amount, so the "big discount" won't be worth more than a 32% or so discount. Those who did buy the early slots likely have the better horses, so it's not like they're at some big disadvantage.

Fager Fan
12-19-2017, 08:49 PM
If 16 million is in play what would you expect first place to pay?

I hope you aren't trying to argue that payouts different than we're used to seeing means $16m "isn't in play."

SG4
12-20-2017, 01:44 AM
That sounds like a spin instead of admitting that you were wrong.

So explain. If you can.

Sorry to step in CJ but this is painful to watch so I will try to help & explain to Fager Fan in quick fashion & if he still doesn't get it I will remove myself from this as well:

It costs $1 million to get a slot, 12 slots = $12 million. GP is putting up $4 mil of its own money, making a $16 million purse. Here's the trick though, every single finisher is guaranteed to earn $650,000 so in reality nobody stands to lose more than $350,000. So actual risk & purse up for grabs is $350,000 x 12 which is $4.2 mil + the 4mil from GP so it's really a $8.2 million race for available purses, hence the nearly 50% not being in play.

An $8 million race is nothing to sneeze at, but saying it's $16 million is a farce.

VigorsTheGrey
12-20-2017, 03:50 AM
What is the winning share of the purse however...and for the rest of the placings...?

Does anybody have the actual conditions for the race, etc, I looked but couldn't find anything on the net for the 2018 running.

Fager Fan
12-20-2017, 10:00 AM
Sorry to step in CJ but this is painful to watch so I will try to help & explain to Fager Fan in quick fashion & if he still doesn't get it I will remove myself from this as well:

It costs $1 million to get a slot, 12 slots = $12 million. GP is putting up $4 mil of its own money, making a $16 million purse. Here's the trick though, every single finisher is guaranteed to earn $650,000 so in reality nobody stands to lose more than $350,000. So actual risk & purse up for grabs is $350,000 x 12 which is $4.2 mil + the 4mil from GP so it's really a $8.2 million race for available purses, hence the nearly 50% not being in play.

An $8 million race is nothing to sneeze at, but saying it's $16 million is a farce.

It's not a farce. That is the purse. Just because the splits are unusual doesn't make it not valid.

The slot owners have input and the guaranteed amounts are what they want, and they're willing to take that in lieu of the normal splits. They still have to run around the track to earn it.

Who complained last year of the guaranteed amounts supposedly not meaning the purse amount was the purse amount?

Fager Fan
12-20-2017, 10:03 AM
What is the winning share of the purse however...and for the rest of the placings...?

Does anybody have the actual conditions for the race, etc, I looked but couldn't find anything on the net for the 2018 running.

Last year it was .583, .145, .08, and .02 down the line.

This year we know it'll be .04 down the line. I haven't seen the other splits.

Fager Fan
12-20-2017, 10:29 AM
PS: the slot holders also get part of the profits from ticket sales, etc. GP only said the slot holders are guaranteed $650k. Nowhere did they say this figure isn't a combination of guaranteed purse and guaranteed earnings from other sources.

So maybe we can cool our jets and let the people putting up the money and putting on the shoe decide how this shakes out, and we can applaud the effort.

exactatom
12-20-2017, 10:40 AM
Sorry to step in CJ but this is painful to watch so I will try to help & explain to Fager Fan in quick fashion & if he still doesn't get it I will remove myself from this as well:

It costs $1 million to get a slot, 12 slots = $12 million. GP is putting up $4 mil of its own money, making a $16 million purse. Here's the trick though, every single finisher is guaranteed to earn $650,000 so in reality nobody stands to lose more than $350,000. So actual risk & purse up for grabs is $350,000 x 12 which is $4.2 mil + the 4mil from GP so it's really a $8.2 million race for available purses, hence the nearly 50% not being in play.

An $8 million race is nothing to sneeze at, but saying it's $16 million is a farce.

I disagree that no one is losing more than $350,000. If you bought a slot to run a horse, you then have to pay for the transportation of owner, trainer, groom, and jockey of the horse. While one would say you would have to pay these expenses no matter where you run, I would suspect most of the field would be shipping in to Gulfstream for the race. The upset definitely outweighs the downsize for an owner, especially since most, if not all of these horses would have made sizable purses over their careers.

A question I have had from the start is, Do the people who invest the $1 million get a share of the tv rights, advertising, merchandising and other revenue generated by the event? If they do, that is great, if not, it seems like Stronach invented a way to have the owners subsidize the creating of an event in which he increases non wagering income and keeps the profit.

I am not saying this is good or bad, but if you look at the economics of this, the big winner is the racetrack. The key to this is making the sport and the bettors big winners also on that day.

Fager Fan
12-20-2017, 10:55 AM
I disagree that no one is losing more than $350,000. If you bought a slot to run a horse, you then have to pay for the transportation of owner, trainer, groom, and jockey of the horse. While one would say you would have to pay these expenses no matter where you run, I would suspect most of the field would be shipping in to Gulfstream for the race. The upset definitely outweighs the downsize for an owner, especially since most, if not all of these horses would have made sizable purses over their careers.

A question I have had from the start is, Do the people who invest the $1 million get a share of the tv rights, advertising, merchandising and other revenue generated by the event? If they do, that is great, if not, it seems like Stronach invented a way to have the owners subsidize the creating of an event in which he increases non wagering income and keeps the profit.

I am not saying this is good or bad, but if you look at the economics of this, the big winner is the racetrack. The key to this is making the sport and the bettors big winners also on that day.

Yes, they share in the revenue from other sources. I posted about this just above, and that part of their guarantee in return could partly be from these sources.

Spalding No!
12-20-2017, 01:07 PM
It's not a farce. That is the purse. Just because the splits are unusual doesn't make it not valid.
It's not just the splits, it's the source of the purse that is unique. Whereas typically an owner through starting fees puts up 1-2% of the purse, with the Pegasus World Cup conditions, owners are required to foot the vast majority of the purse.

The slot owners have input and the guaranteed amounts are what they want, and they're willing to take that in lieu of the normal splits. They still have to run around the track to earn it.
Last year, 4 horses were able to double their career earnings simply by starting in the race: Neolithic, Semper Fortis, War Envoy, and Eragon. This is the main hole in the format in my opinion. Guaranteed amounts to the owner are fine, but when an owner can simply add earnings to a horse's official race record, there's a bit of a problem.

Taken to the extreme, you are messing with the stud book (i.e., I can make my well-bred allowance horse a "millionaire" by starting and, regardless of finish, improve his chances of becoming a stallion).

Who complained last year of the guaranteed amounts supposedly not meaning the purse amount was the purse amount?
That's not a compelling argument. For one, last year most chatter was drowned out by the anticipation of an Arrogate-California Chrome rematch.

Secondly, a $250,000 guarantee return was somewhat palatable, but this year we are talking about a $400K boost to $650,000. This is way over the top and casts a glaring spotlight on the issues of total purse and individual career earnings.

Fager Fan
12-20-2017, 01:20 PM
It's not just the splits, it's the source of the purse that is unique. Whereas typically an owner through starting fees puts up 1-2% of the purse, with the Pegasus World Cup conditions, owners are required to foot the vast majority of the purse.


Last year, 4 horses were able to double their career earnings simply by starting in the race: Neolithic, Semper Fortis, War Envoy, and Eragon. This is the main hole in the format in my opinion. Guaranteed amounts to the owner are fine, but when an owner can simply add earnings to a horse's official race record, there's a bit of a problem.

Taken to the extreme, you are messing with the stud book (i.e., I can make my well-bred allowance horse a "millionaire" by starting and, regardless of finish, improve his chances of becoming a stallion).


That's not a compelling argument. For one, last year most chatter was drowned out by the anticipation of an Arrogate-California Chrome rematch.

Secondly, a $250,000 guarantee return was somewhat palatable, but this year we are talking about a $400K boost to $650,000. This is way over the top and casts a glaring spotlight on the issues of total purse and individual career earnings.

So your complaint is about the money earnings records of horses? I've never considered it important, and that thought increased 10-fold after the DWC started running (followed by the BC upping their purse, and now the Pegasus). What can we do? It is what it is. We all know why CC won so much, and why Arrogate won so much. It doesn't mean that either was better than Sec or Slew or Fager.

You know, this is the way the sport got started. Owners put up their money to stake the claim that their horse was faster than the other owner's horse. Are we really going to be so picky in our criticisms that we ultimately object to the way the sport was started?

Aren't the biggest all-time earners still Japanese horses? Or maybe Arrogate overtook them as well, but none of us thought that it was a huge problem or ultimately represented the quality of the runner by the $ amount behind its name.

cj
12-20-2017, 01:37 PM
I tried to warn you guys.

dilanesp
12-20-2017, 01:50 PM
The money record has always been somewhat artificial. The Pegasus definitely takes it a step farther.

Fager Fan
12-20-2017, 02:47 PM
I tried to warn you guys.

<rolling eyes>

Spalding No!
12-20-2017, 02:57 PM
So your complaint is about the money earnings records of horses? I've never considered it important, and that thought increased 10-fold after the DWC started running (followed by the BC upping their purse, and now the Pegasus). We all know why CC won so much, and why Arrogate won so much. It doesn't mean that either was better than Sec or Slew or Fager.
I understand that you are savvy enough to see the BS involved with an individual horse's earnings record so why aren't you willing to admit to the BS involved in an individual race's purse?

By paying a minimum of $650K down to the last-place finisher, that portion of the purse ($7.8 million) in reality is negated whether or not nominally it is defined as part of the total purse.

What can we do? It is what it is.
We can separate the real from the nominal.

Earlier you suggested it was "common sense" for the industry to pull the wool over the public's eye. The purse of the Pegasus World Cup is another one of those instances.

I don't see that philosophy as particularly "healthy" for the industry in this day and age.

You know, this is the way the sport got started. Owners put up their money to stake the claim that their horse was faster than the other owner's horse. Are we really going to be so picky in our criticisms that we ultimately object to the way the sport was started?
Straw man argument. The argument is whether a slot owner is really putting up $1 million to start in the PWC versus $350K; the argument is not whether it is justified that an owner puts up any dollar amount at all to race his or her horse.

Aren't the biggest all-time earners still Japanese horses? Or maybe Arrogate overtook them as well, but none of us thought that it was a huge problem or ultimately represented the quality of the runner by the $ amount behind its name.
I'm no expert, but at this point in time, Japan's Thoroughbred industry is still fairly isolated. Thus, comparing their purses and individual earnings to those of the rest of the world is moot.

Be that as it may, I would hazard a guess that in Japan one could still use individual earnings as a means of gauging a horse for betting purposes or other reasons (quality rankings, etc.). Their industry appears to be in good shape, unlike the one stateside.

cj
12-20-2017, 03:00 PM
<rolling eyes>

I'll say I'm holding a $20,000,000 match race. The two rivals just have to put up 9,000,000 and I'd put up the extra $2,000,000. I'll guarantee each horse receives at least 9,000,000 dollars, the winner gets 11,000,000. Is it a 2,000,000 race or a 20,000,000 race? That is your answer. So simple even a toddler could figure it out. It is a 2,000,000 dollar race.

But Frank would credit both horses with "earnings" far greater than what they really earned. That is why it is a farce.

GMB@BP
12-20-2017, 04:20 PM
I'll say I'm holding a $20,000,000 match race. The two rivals just have to put up 9,000,000 and I'd put up the extra $2,000,000. I'll guarantee each horse receives at least 9,000,000 dollars, the winner gets 11,000,000. Is it a 2,000,000 race or a 20,000,000 race? That is your answer. So simple even a toddler could figure it out. It is a 2,000,000 dollar race.

But Frank would credit both horses with "earnings" far greater than what they really earned. That is why it is a farce.

does the rider still get paid 10% of the 20 million purse :D

Fager Fan
12-20-2017, 04:58 PM
does the rider still get paid 10% of the 20 million purse :D

The rider never gets 10% of the $20m or $2m or $100k purse. :D

Fager Fan
12-20-2017, 05:00 PM
I'll say I'm holding a $20,000,000 match race. The two rivals just have to put up 9,000,000 and I'd put up the extra $2,000,000. I'll guarantee each horse receives at least 9,000,000 dollars, the winner gets 11,000,000. Is it a 2,000,000 race or a 20,000,000 race? That is your answer. So simple even a toddler could figure it out. It is a 2,000,000 dollar race.

But Frank would credit both horses with "earnings" far greater than what they really earned. That is why it is a farce.

Oh, yeah, that's really similar. 4% versus 50ish%.

The fact is that it's a $16m purse, whether you like the way it's split or not. So simple even a toddler could figure it out. How old are you again?

Fager Fan
12-20-2017, 05:08 PM
I understand that you are savvy enough to see the BS involved with an individual horse's earnings record so why aren't you willing to admit to the BS involved in an individual race's purse?

By paying a minimum of $650K down to the last-place finisher, that portion of the purse ($7.8 million) in reality is negated whether or not nominally it is defined as part of the total purse.


We can separate the real from the nominal.

Earlier you suggested it was "common sense" for the industry to pull the wool over the public's eye. The purse of the Pegasus World Cup is another one of those instances.

I don't see that philosophy as particularly "healthy" for the industry in this day and age.


Straw man argument. The argument is whether a slot owner is really putting up $1 million to start in the PWC versus $350K; the argument is not whether it is justified that an owner puts up any dollar amount at all to race his or her horse.


I'm no expert, but at this point in time, Japan's Thoroughbred industry is still fairly isolated. Thus, comparing their purses and individual earnings to those of the rest of the world is moot.

Be that as it may, I would hazard a guess that in Japan one could still use individual earnings as a means of gauging a horse for betting purposes or other reasons (quality rankings, etc.). Their industry appears to be in good shape, unlike the one stateside.

Did you have this issue when the Derby purse was being 50% funded by the owners (I guess it's 20% now)? Or when the BC races had large extra funding by supplemental entries? Or heck, when there's funding through the state bred programs?

What exactly is the problem here? Stronach doesn't take as his own the natural resources of a country, so he has to at least try to make some sense of spending where the Sheikh doesn't. They are trying to make the risk/reward palatable for the entire field until such time the race grows to not need the participants to take on such a big risk. So they'll pay 4% all the way down. After the BC got established, they were able retool the way they were funded as well.

The earnings records and amounts have zero to do with anything except that it helps the bank accounts of the participants.

cj
12-20-2017, 05:22 PM
Oh, yeah, that's really similar. 4% versus 50ish%.

The fact is that it's a $16m purse, whether you like the way it's split or not. So simple even a toddler could figure it out. How old are you again?

Against my better instincts I tried. Your math needs a lot of work. My example is closer to what Frank's doing than what Frank's doing is to the normal model. It is an 8.2 million dollar race.

ultracapper
12-20-2017, 06:07 PM
The marketing director should step up and get into Frank's ear.

Up the entry fee to 1.5mil, guarantee each participant a 1.15mil return, and market it to the world that "Every horse in the race will leave a millionaire" in big bold type in every newspaper in the country. Of course, every dimwit in existance would see what a sham that is, but we're talking horse racing here. Right?

Hell, up it to $10mil and guarantee a 9.65mil participation trophy, err, purse cut.......no, wait, up it to a $million jillion, gazillion entry fee............

What this shows is that there are few owners willing to risk $750k of their own money on a single race, as they did last year, so the risk has been lowered to $350k this year, and you can bet it will be lowered again in the near future in order to fill the gate, and before you know it, the Pegasus Cup will be a thing of the past.

It really is a great idea, having the owners put up the purse money like days gone by, but why put up your own money when you can take it out of Mr. Slot Machine player's pocket. What the owners are saying here is, sure, I'll put up a million bucks, but you have to give me most of it back after the race is over. And I get to call it purse winnings.

Fager Fan
12-20-2017, 07:36 PM
Against my better instincts I tried. Your math needs a lot of work. My example is closer to what Frank's doing than what Frank's doing is to the normal model. It is an 8.2 million dollar race.

Or your math does. $650k x 9 = $5.85m, meaning there's $10.15m up for grabs for the top 3.

It's a $16m purse, despite your insistence that it's not. $16m is paid out. How it's funded is irrelevant. No one said the $2m purse of the Ky Derby was really $1m since the owners put up $1m.

But thanks for this new twist on what purse earnings really means. Now we know that the New Twist DWC purse is really $8.8m since the first 6 are all guaranteed $200k.

But at least you backed off your implication that Stronach wasn't really "buying" the 3 unsold slots even if you wouldn't just admit you were wrong.

cj
12-20-2017, 08:20 PM
Or your math does. $650k x 9 = $5.85m, meaning there's $10.15m up for grabs for the top 3.

It's a $16m purse, despite your insistence that it's not. $16m is paid out. How it's funded is irrelevant. No one said the $2m purse of the Ky Derby was really $1m since the owners put up $1m.

But thanks for this new twist on what purse earnings really means. Now we know that the New Twist DWC purse is really $8.8m since the first 6 are all guaranteed $200k.

But at least you backed off your implication that Stronach wasn't really "buying" the 3 unsold slots even if you wouldn't just admit you were wrong.

You're writing is at about the same level as your math. I have no idea what you are trying to say. Google Translate was no help. Are you now saying there will be only 9 horses in the race? Frank "bought" the slots to try to turn around and sell them and fill the field.

Everyone else can see what I'm saying. The fact you can't is on you, not me.

Spalding No!
12-20-2017, 08:31 PM
You're writing is at about the same level as your math. I have no idea what you are trying to say. Google Translate was no help. Are you now saying there will be only 9 horses in the race? Frank "bought" the slots to try to turn around and sell them and fill the field.

Everyone else can see what I'm saying. The fact you can't is on you, not me.
The guaranteed part is technically only 4th through 12th, which receive about 4% of the purse at $650K. So technically only 9 of the 12 runners are getting a "guaranteed" starter fee--which in CA anyways would not be included in the total value of the race. The top 3 finishers would race for the remaining $10.15 million.

Regardless, your post about the "absurdity continuing" has certainly not lost any steam.

Here is the latest press release for the PWC from the Stronach Group:

The Stronach Group announced today that nine of 12 contenders have been confirmed for the second running of the G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational.

The nine confirmed starters for the 2018 Pegasus World Cup Invitational as of December 15, 2017, are as follows (listed alphabetically):

Collected
Owner: Speedway Stable LLC. Trainer: Bob Baffert

Gunnevera
Owner: William C. Gallo, et al. Trainer: Antonio Sano

Gun Runner
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC/Three Chimneys Farm. Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Seeking the Soul
Owner: Charles E. Fipke. Trainer: Dallas Stewart

Stellar Wind
Owner: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith (Coolmore). Trainer: Chad Brown

Toast of New York
Owner: Al Shaqab, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, R.A. Hill, Eric Young. Trainer: James Osborne

To Be Announced
Owner: Adena Springs. Trainer: TBA
Adena Springs is owned by the Stronach Family, the innovators behind the Pegasus World Cup Invitational. Adena Springs bred Shaman Ghost, who finished second in the inaugural running of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational.

War Story/Game Over
Owner: Ron Paolucci and Ashley Quartarolo. Trainer: Jorge Navarro

West Coast
Owner: Gary and Mary West. Trainer: Bob Baffert

Lemon Drop Husker
12-20-2017, 08:53 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4V0TYIO6yv4

Fager Fan
12-20-2017, 08:59 PM
You're writing is at about the same level as your math. I have no idea what you are trying to say. Google Translate was no help. Are you now saying there will be only 9 horses in the race? Frank "bought" the slots to try to turn around and sell them and fill the field.

Everyone else can see what I'm saying. The fact you can't is on you, not me.

I didn't think 12-3=9 would be too tough for you. Obviously it was.

Tom
12-20-2017, 11:44 PM
The Stronach Group announced today that nine of 12 contenders have been confirmed.

JustRalph
12-20-2017, 11:53 PM
I’m unloading on “To be announced”

reckless
12-21-2017, 12:25 AM
I’m unloading on “To be announced”

Who'll ride, No Boy?

dilanesp
12-21-2017, 12:50 AM
The guaranteed part is technically only 4th through 12th, which receive about 4% of the purse at $650K. So technically only 9 of the 12 runners are getting a "guaranteed" starter fee--which in CA anyways would not be included in the total value of the race. The top 3 finishers would race for the remaining $10.15 million.

Regardless, your post about the "absurdity continuing" has certainly not lost any steam.

Here is the latest press release for the PWC from the Stronach Group:

The Stronach Group announced today that nine of 12 contenders have been confirmed for the second running of the G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational.

The nine confirmed starters for the 2018 Pegasus World Cup Invitational as of December 15, 2017, are as follows (listed alphabetically):

Collected
Owner: Speedway Stable LLC. Trainer: Bob Baffert

Gunnevera
Owner: William C. Gallo, et al. Trainer: Antonio Sano

Gun Runner
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC/Three Chimneys Farm. Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Seeking the Soul
Owner: Charles E. Fipke. Trainer: Dallas Stewart

Stellar Wind
Owner: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith (Coolmore). Trainer: Chad Brown

Toast of New York
Owner: Al Shaqab, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, R.A. Hill, Eric Young. Trainer: James Osborne

To Be Announced
Owner: Adena Springs. Trainer: TBA
Adena Springs is owned by the Stronach Family, the innovators behind the Pegasus World Cup Invitational. Adena Springs bred Shaman Ghost, who finished second in the inaugural running of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational.

War Story/Game Over
Owner: Ron Paolucci and Ashley Quartarolo. Trainer: Jorge Navarro

West Coast
Owner: Gary and Mary West. Trainer: Bob Baffert


I'm liking To Be Announced. He's been training well and has been pointed to this race.

dilanesp
12-21-2017, 12:51 AM
Who'll ride, No Boy?

He had a big win overseas over Further, Information, and Unavailable before shipping in.

cj
12-21-2017, 01:15 AM
I didn't think 12-3=9 would be too tough for you. Obviously it was.

Thanks Belinda.

Fager Fan
12-21-2017, 01:17 AM
Thanks Belinda.

I'm sure that makes sense to someone.

PaceAdvantage
12-23-2017, 03:54 PM
I'm sure that makes sense to someone.Made sense to me.

jocko699
01-18-2018, 12:48 AM
This is why this race is a joke IMO.

http://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/22137049/fear-cowboy-potential-pegasus-starter

plainolebill
01-18-2018, 02:35 AM
This is why this race is a joke IMO.

http://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/22137049/fear-cowboy-potential-pegasus-starter

Hey Jocko, remember Rick's Natural Star? He preceded the age of the selfie and vanity race entries but same concept.

Fager Fan
01-18-2018, 10:41 AM
Hey Jocko, remember Rick's Natural Star? He preceded the age of the selfie and vanity race entries but same concept.

Doesn't anyone remember the owner/trainer pair in the 90s who always showed up with some no-hoper in the Derby? They were Puerto Rican perhaps?

The race is a tough concept to get rolling. I'm sure the hope was to get it going with the slot fees until other revenue can fund it. We should all commend the effort instead of taking swipes at it. Guess what race all in racing will be watching in a couple weeks?

Any word on how they're filling the slot previously designated for the Casse horse who broke down?

Mc990
01-18-2018, 11:08 AM
All purse/earnings nonsense aside, this is turning out to be an outstanding race from a quality standpoint as well as betting. Looking over the figures/sheets for the probables, I'd even be willing to say this is the fastest group to ever come together (based on their respective top efforts). I'd be curious to hear from the TFUS guys to get their perspective on this.... Beyer and Ragozin will obviously see it somewhat differently since... you know... horses aren't getting any faster...

That being said, you can make a case that most aren't coming up to a career best effort next Saturday... 8 stakes altogether and possibly the best field ever assembled. I for one, can't complain.

Good luck to all

cj
01-18-2018, 11:09 AM
Doesn't anyone remember the owner/trainer pair in the 90s who always showed up with some no-hoper in the Derby? They were Puerto Rican perhaps?

The race is a tough concept to get rolling. I'm sure the hope was to get it going with the slot fees until other revenue can fund it. We should all commend the effort instead of taking swipes at it. Guess what race all in racing will be watching in a couple weeks?

Any word on how they're filling the slot previously designated for the Casse horse who broke down?

That would be Robert Perez and Alfredo Callejas I believe.

dilanesp
01-18-2018, 01:42 PM
Doesn't anyone remember the owner/trainer pair in the 90s who always showed up with some no-hoper in the Derby? They were Puerto Rican perhaps?

The race is a tough concept to get rolling. I'm sure the hope was to get it going with the slot fees until other revenue can fund it. We should all commend the effort instead of taking swipes at it. Guess what race all in racing will be watching in a couple weeks?

Any word on how they're filling the slot previously designated for the Casse horse who broke down?

I want to say it was Robert Perez.

And I agree with you- for all of its problems, the Pegasus looks like a great horse race.

onefast99
01-18-2018, 02:50 PM
This is why this race is a joke IMO.

http://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/22137049/fear-cowboy-potential-pegasus-starter
It isn't your money they are spending. Why not take a crack at the pot, and this horse seems to like the track as well. Good luck to all that start it should be a competitive race.

Tom
01-18-2018, 04:42 PM
No interest in the race at all.
Sorry, when it so danged important that they mis-timed last year, I just say it a joke of a track and no great race arae run ate joke race tracks.

I will be at Tampa Bay on TVG2.
Or Oaklawn, or Fair Grounds - anywhere but GP.

onefast99
01-18-2018, 05:01 PM
No interest in the race at all.
Sorry, when it so danged important that they mis-timed last year, I just say it a joke of a track and no great race arae run ate joke race tracks.

I will be at Tampa Bay on TVG2.
Or Oaklawn, or Fair Grounds - anywhere but GP.
Come on Tom you can certainly find a few races at GP that are far more playable than Tampa.

Fager Fan
01-18-2018, 05:28 PM
That would be Robert Perez and Alfredo Callejas I believe.

That's it. Thanks!

Tom
01-18-2018, 05:39 PM
Come on Tom you can certainly find a few races at GP that are far more playable than Tampa.


I wouldn't play GP with your money.
I'll still boycotting from 20 years ago.
The track is run by total idiots who have no respect for their customers.
Or they are total morons.
OR both.

jocko699
01-18-2018, 05:56 PM
Hey Jocko, remember Rick's Natural Star? He preceded the age of the selfie and vanity race entries but same concept.

Yes I remember him well!!!!!

cj
01-18-2018, 06:08 PM
I wouldn't play GP with your money.
I'll still boycotting from 20 years ago.
The track is run by total idiots who have no respect for their customers.
Or they are total morons.
OR both.

Come on, what could go wrong?

This is from R9 today, LOL.

jocko699
01-18-2018, 06:30 PM
Come on, what could go wrong?

This is from R9 today, LOL.

Unbelievable!!!!

Tom
01-18-2018, 06:33 PM
Come on, what could go wrong?

This is from R9 today, LOL.

Better get those horses entered into the Pegasus!

dilanesp
01-18-2018, 07:19 PM
Come on, what could go wrong?

This is from R9 today, LOL.

Well, that fast pace tired them out.

onefast99
01-18-2018, 07:43 PM
Come on, what could go wrong?

This is from R9 today, LOL.Probably a bad battery or someone forgot to wind the timer, very minor items that the physical plant can handle...

Fager Fan
01-18-2018, 09:14 PM
The chart has a finish time, and the notes say it was hand-timed.

Here is an article about the complexities of timing, if anyone is interested.

http://www.drf.com/news/timing-everything-correctly-timing-race-more-complicated-it-looks

Tom
01-19-2018, 09:35 AM
Probably a bad battery or someone forgot to wind the timer, very minor items that the physical plant can handle...

This has been going on for 20 years. Beyer wrote about it a long time ago.
GP doesn't give a crap about timing races. Search here and you will find ould threads about this and the start of the boycott, that I still support to this day.

Minor items? In a game were fractions of a second make the difference between winning and out of the money????

GP should not be allowed to take wagers, period.
A hell of a lot of money goes in to those pools and GP is totally irresponsible in their handling of the wagering.

This is why I am 100% in favor of STRICT federal regulation of ALL race tracks.
The industry itself is far to incompetent to regulate themselves.

gm10
01-19-2018, 02:22 PM
https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/spectacular-gallop-fuels-dream-as-toast-of-new-york-bids-for-more-glory/315176

"Toast galloped a mile with a 98-rated horse who probably works to 110, and with Jimmy a conservative 10st 7lb and the rider of the other horse a tiny girl weighing 6st 7lb, he was in effect giving away four stone. Yet he worked much the better. On paper you could say he worked to 150-plus!"

IMO weight is only half as effective as theory says it is. So let's say he gave away 2 stone, or 28 lbs, which would still make it a 138+ workout. Obviously it's just a workout but that's very encouraging.

Afleet
01-21-2018, 11:34 PM
https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/spectacular-gallop-fuels-dream-as-toast-of-new-york-bids-for-more-glory/315176

"Toast galloped a mile with a 98-rated horse who probably works to 110, and with Jimmy a conservative 10st 7lb and the rider of the other horse a tiny girl weighing 6st 7lb, he was in effect giving away four stone. Yet he worked much the better. On paper you could say he worked to 150-plus!"

IMO weight is only half as effective as theory says it is. So let's say he gave away 2 stone, or 28 lbs, which would still make it a 138+ workout. Obviously it's just a workout but that's very encouraging.

interesting thanks for posting

cj
01-22-2018, 12:42 AM
This has been going on for 20 years. Beyer wrote about it a long time ago.
GP doesn't give a crap about timing races. Search here and you will find ould threads about this and the start of the boycott, that I still support to this day.

Minor items? In a game were fractions of a second make the difference between winning and out of the money????

GP should not be allowed to take wagers, period.
A hell of a lot of money goes in to those pools and GP is totally irresponsible in their handling of the wagering.

This is why I am 100% in favor of STRICT federal regulation of ALL race tracks.
The industry itself is far to incompetent to regulate themselves.

Gulfstream has FIVE races listed as "hand timed" over the last two race days.

jay68802
01-22-2018, 12:51 AM
Gulfstream has FIVE races listed as "hand timed" over the last two race days.

And Santa Anita can't get changes...A Stronach policy?

onefast99
01-22-2018, 10:12 AM
All Navarro horses come over from Calder Training Center 2 days prior to the races and are in the detention barn, very good move on behalf of the Stronach Group.

Tom
01-22-2018, 10:35 AM
Franky is an embarrassment to the game.
Has been for decades.

GMB@BP
01-22-2018, 10:46 AM
Franky is an embarrassment to the game.
Has been for decades.

I cant wait till he sells Santa Anita and it becomes a office building!

Denny
01-22-2018, 12:57 PM
Get TSG out of racing.

Arcadia won't allow any office buildings. That track is safe in other hands. Somebody please buy that track.

He turned GP into a shopping mall. Spent 30 million on a statue. The PAYgasus is for the 0.5%.

The guy is nuts.

onefast99
01-22-2018, 01:42 PM
Get TSG out of racing.

Arcadia won't allow any office buildings. That track is safe in other hands. Somebody please buy that track.

He turned GP into a shopping mall. Spent 30 million on a statue. The PAYgasus is for the 0.5%.

The guy is nuts.
GP is actually a nice track to go to. GPW is the one that needs to be bulldozed...

Denny
01-22-2018, 02:34 PM
I've been to GP. It's a bandbox.

You can't even move around that place on a crowded day. People take your spot as soon as you move. You have to pay for a seat - everywhere!

People sit in the simulcast without windows. Never see a horse in the flesh.
I would only go on a weekday. If I ever go again.

Denny
01-22-2018, 02:40 PM
BTW. GP West (Calder) has been bulldozed. Only the race courses, paddock, and some betting windows and bathrooms.
The slots and poker are separate, a building across the road, if I remember..

TSG wants a monopoly wherever they are. Look what happens wherever they are - Bay Area, LA, Florida. Next to go will be Pimlico.

GMB@BP
01-22-2018, 02:52 PM
Get TSG out of racing.

Arcadia won't allow any office buildings. That track is safe in other hands. Somebody please buy that track.

He turned GP into a shopping mall. Spent 30 million on a statue. The PAYgasus is for the 0.5%.

The guy is nuts.

You have way to much faith in politicians, when the money is right for everyone in the deal...it will be developed.

Denny
01-22-2018, 03:00 PM
You have way to much faith in politicians, when the money is right for everyone in the deal...it will be developed.

That track (SA) will be a historic landmark. It's not going anywhere.

Arcadia is a very affluent community and the track along with the huge park nearby is a big part of it. Repeat, it's not going anywhere - unless horse racing ceases to exist.

GMB@BP
01-22-2018, 03:06 PM
That track (SA) will be a historic landmark. It's not going anywhere.

Arcadia is a very affluent community and the track along with the huge park nearby is a big part of it. Repeat, it's not going anywhere - unless horse racing ceases to exist.

unless horse racing ceases to exist

I thought that was a given? Racing dies in the market, they sell, no buyers at the crazy land value asking price...track goes desolate, then developed.

Denny
01-22-2018, 03:36 PM
Ceases to exist EVERYWHERE, not just SA.

Fager Fan
01-22-2018, 04:20 PM
Franky is an embarrassment to the game.
Has been for decades.

Haven't you chewed through that bone by now?

Fager Fan
01-22-2018, 04:25 PM
Get TSG out of racing.

Arcadia won't allow any office buildings. That track is safe in other hands. Somebody please buy that track.

He turned GP into a shopping mall. Spent 30 million on a statue. The PAYgasus is for the 0.5%.

The guy is nuts.

GP is a very nice track to go to. It's one of my favorites. And it's sort of cool that the statue is the second largest in the US, topped only by Lady Liberty.

Fager Fan
01-22-2018, 04:26 PM
BTW. GP West (Calder) has been bulldozed. Only the race courses, paddock, and some betting windows and bathrooms.
The slots and poker are separate, a building across the road, if I remember..

TSG wants a monopoly wherever they are. Look what happens wherever they are - Bay Area, LA, Florida. Next to go will be Pimlico.

They beat Churchill Downs. That's always a good thing.

Fager Fan
01-22-2018, 04:29 PM
That track (SA) will be a historic landmark. It's not going anywhere.

Arcadia is a very affluent community and the track along with the huge park nearby is a big part of it. Repeat, it's not going anywhere - unless horse racing ceases to exist.

I don't know why you think that. They could easily expand the mall onto the property. No one living there would bat an eye.

Tom
01-22-2018, 05:39 PM
GP is actually a nice track to go to. GPW is the one that needs to be bulldozed...

Thanks to Franky and GP.

Andy Asaro
01-22-2018, 05:40 PM
https://twitter.com/DRFPrivman/status/955523332610248704

cj
01-22-2018, 05:48 PM
Thought of another thing, why should horses that are pushing distance limits like Sharp Azteca now have to run even farther on a whim?

Andy Asaro
01-22-2018, 05:52 PM
Thought of another thing, why should horses that are pushing distance limits like Sharp Azteca now have to run even farther on a whim?

Nobody wants an outside post. That's why I doubt there will be any serious objections. Hopefully next year they will take your suggestion and just make it a mile and three sixteenths

cj
01-22-2018, 05:53 PM
Nobody wants an outside post. That's why I doubt there will be any serious objections. Hopefully next year they will take your suggestion and just make it a mile and three sixteenths

I'm sure they don't, but they knew the rules when they ponied up the mostly fake entry fee.

Andy Asaro
01-22-2018, 05:55 PM
I'm sure they don't, but they knew the rules when they ponied up the mostly fake entry fee.

Run ups are in conditions. If Del Mar can go 200 for a mile on the main then this isn't that far out. 30 extra feet would make it a better gambling race IMO

cj
01-22-2018, 06:00 PM
Run ups are in conditions. If Del Mar can go 200 for a mile on the main then this isn't that far out. 30 extra feet would make it a better gambling race IMO

Thirty extra feet is highly unlikely to make a difference. Since Gulfstream does so many things poorly for bettors, condoning them changing things on a whim isn't really a great idea IMO.

GMB@BP
01-22-2018, 06:22 PM
Am I crazy thinking that weather its 9F or even longer that Sharp Azteca is a very real threat to wire this group?

You know Gun Runner is not going to go after him, he is probably hoping after Collected's last loss blamed on rating that he will go, but I dont see him going.

Could be completely loose.

cj
01-22-2018, 07:05 PM
Am I crazy thinking that weather its 9F or even longer that Sharp Azteca is a very real threat to wire this group?

You know Gun Runner is not going to go after him, he is probably hoping after Collected's last loss blamed on rating that he will go, but I dont see him going.

Could be completely loose.

I don't think that is going to happen. For one, Sharp Azteca has run fine rating as well. If I remember right he was dreadful in his one try around two turns, though granted it was like 18 months ago.

Robert Fischer
01-22-2018, 07:18 PM
Am I crazy thinking that weather its 9F or even longer that Sharp Azteca is a very real threat to wire this group?

You know Gun Runner is not going to go after him, he is probably hoping after Collected's last loss blamed on rating that he will go, but I dont see him going.

Could be completely loose.

He certainly has a puncher's chance to steal the race, and is a threat to carry the pace a long way and hit the board.

Mc990
01-22-2018, 08:18 PM
Am I crazy thinking that weather its 9F or even longer that Sharp Azteca is a very real threat to wire this group?

You know Gun Runner is not going to go after him, he is probably hoping after Collected's last loss blamed on rating that he will go, but I dont see him going.

Could be completely loose.

Not crazy at all. He doesn't even need the lead...

IMO, there is a real argument to be made that he should be favored Saturday. He's consistently faster than GR with the exception of his dead rail BC race. I don't see a reason he can't get the 9f.

Post draw could be telling.

classhandicapper
01-22-2018, 08:21 PM
If someone gets loose, I think it's unlikely they will be loose in a slow pace. Whoever gets the lead is going to have to earn it.

I can see Sharp Azteca stalking if someone out breaks him or has an advantage due to post position, but I can't see him taking back. He's probably faster than these horses coming out of the speed filled shorter races and I'm not sure I'd want him trying to close down Gun Runner and Collected going longer. He's gotten really good, but I'd still prefer him turning for home with the lead.

I can't see Collected being ridden like he was last time. That didn't work. He is almost definitely going to be ridden more aggressively to get good position.

Gunner Runner will be close.

The pace almost has be honest or a little quick.

If 2 of them get a little carried away due to post position it could get hot, but I can't imagine it being suicidal. That would be too dumb when you are going for this much money. Going really hard and risking finishing off the board would be damn expensive when you can't even sure going really hard will work.

I'm going to wait for the PP draw and as always to see how the track is playing, but if I try to beat Gun Runner, it will probably be with West Coast. He's younger and still lightly raced enough to jump up. He'll also be close enough. If the track and post is against him and more with inside speed, maybe I'll take a shot with Sharp Azteca. If it all looks neutral maybe I'll go with a beer. ;)

jay68802
01-22-2018, 09:07 PM
If someone gets loose, I think it's unlikely they will be loose in a slow pace. Whoever gets the lead is going to have to earn it.

I can see Sharp Azteca stalking if someone out breaks him or has an advantage due to post position, but I can't see him taking back. He's probably faster than these horses coming out of the speed filled shorter races and I'm not sure I'd want him trying to close down Gun Runner and Collected going longer. He's gotten really good, but I'd still prefer him turning for home with the lead.

I can't see Collected being ridden like he was last time. That didn't work. He is almost definitely going to be ridden more aggressively to get good position.

Gunner Runner will be close.

The pace almost has be honest or a little quick.

If 2 of them get a little carried away due to post position it could get hot, but I can't imagine it being suicidal. That would be too dumb when you are going for this much money. Going really hard and risking finishing off the board would be damn expensive when you can't even sure going really hard will work.

I'm going to wait for the PP draw and as always to see how the track is playing, but if I try to beat Gun Runner, it will probably be with West Coast. He's younger and still lightly raced enough to jump up. He'll also be close enough. If the track and post is against him and more with inside speed, maybe I'll take a shot with Sharp Azteca. If it all looks neutral maybe I'll go with a beer. ;)

I'll join you with the beer. Gun Runner's last race, and how many times has a good horse as the favorite lost the last one, it seems to always to happen. I have sort of become a fan of this horse and think I will sit this one out and just cheer him on.

Tom
01-22-2018, 09:37 PM
Sharp Azteca looked awesome last time out.

SG4
01-22-2018, 09:50 PM
I don't think that is going to happen. For one, Sharp Azteca has run fine rating as well. If I remember right he was dreadful in his one try around two turns, though granted it was like 18 months ago.

Sharp Azteca ran twice around 2 turns in 2017, Beyer figs of 108 & 107 so nothing to sneeze at. He had one start at 2 turns as a 3yo, not a bad effort then either but a little below par.

Afleet
01-22-2018, 09:56 PM
Sharp Azteca ran twice around 2 turns in 2017, Beyer figs of 108 & 107 so nothing to sneeze at. He had one start at 2 turns as a 3yo, not a bad effort then either but a little below par.

he shattered the track record@MTH for 1 1/16

cj
01-22-2018, 11:17 PM
Sharp Azteca ran twice around 2 turns in 2017, Beyer figs of 108 & 107 so nothing to sneeze at. He had one start at 2 turns as a 3yo, not a bad effort then either but a little below par.


Thanks, forgot about those. They weren't very good fields but he did run well. The one as a 3yo was bad, wasn't he 1 to 5 or close to that?

Denny
01-22-2018, 11:55 PM
AA being paid by TSG?

Free all expense paid trip to Gulf for the PAYgasus?

Another Stronach mouthpiece?

Andy Asaro
01-23-2018, 08:08 AM
AA being paid by TSG?

Free all expense paid trip to Gulf for the PAYgasus?

Another Stronach mouthpiece?

Here's what Ace Detective Denny is referring to. The post was the first comment under the most recent article about the Pegasus:

21 Jan 2018 at 12:48 pm | #
JP,
AA’s invitation is a very encouraging indication that TSG might actually value the recreational horseplayer’s business. Let’s hope their exposure to what he can bring to a conversation bears some fruit.

Denny's attempt mischaracterize me and my trip to Gulfstream for Pegasus is low but not unexpected from him.

Yes, the most outspoken horseplayer advocate and one of the leaders of the boycott in 2011 for the last 7 years is a Stronach Mouthpiece. I don't work in the Industry and never have. If anything several high profile people in California have prevented me from working in the Industry. So where's the beef?

Being invited by Ritvo to Gulfstream is positive sign. I'm mostly going to talk about suggestions I've made in the past for California Racing ....
https://www.paulickreport.com/horseplayers-category/asaro-ground-zero-in-fight-for-future-of-horse-racing/

But I am also going to talk about post drag and timing races. Anyone who's really knows me and what I've been advocating for knows that this is a very positive development and it says a lot about Ritvo.

Oh, and I also plan to have a good time. Is that OK?

You don't have any idea how many people I've personally set up at Del Mar for comps over the years.

So, "All Expenses" is a bald face lie.


01/17/18 AMERICAN AIR0017039143007FORT WORTH TX $397.30
01/17/18 AMERICAN AIR0010615610041FORT WORTH TX $149.29
01/17/18 EXPEDIA 7323133217902 EXPEDIA.COM WA $28.00

Your trip receipt Visa XXXXXXXXXXXX3995

Andrew Asaro

DOCUMENT NUMBER 0010615610041

MAIN CABIN EXTRA/DFW-SAN

AMOUNT $ 32. 82 USD

TAX $ 2. 46

TOTAL $ 35. 28 USD

DOCUMENT NUMBER 0010615610041

MAIN CABIN EXTRA/MIA-DFW

AMOUNT $ 34. 38 USD

TAX $ 2. 58

TOTAL $ 36. 96 USD

DOCUMENT NUMBER 0010615610041

MAIN CABIN EXTRA/SAN-MIA

AMOUNT $ 71. 67 USD

TAX $ 5. 38

TOTAL $ 77. 05 USD

dilanesp
01-24-2018, 01:16 PM
I don't think that is going to happen. For one, Sharp Azteca has run fine rating as well. If I remember right he was dreadful in his one try around two turns, though granted it was like 18 months ago.

He went two turns on Breeders' Cup day at Del Mar.

usfgeology
01-24-2018, 01:33 PM
:1: Singing Bullet
:2: West Coast
:3: Stellar Wind
:4: Sharp Azteca
:5: Collected
:6: Gunnevera
:7: Fear the Cowboy
:8: War Story
:9: Toast of New York
:10: Gun Runner
:11: Seeking the Soul
:12: Game Over

AE 13 - Giuseppe The Great
AE 14 - Game Over

GMB@BP
01-24-2018, 01:40 PM
#12 is giant expectations

linrom1
01-24-2018, 02:07 PM
I don't like Gun Runner's post position. I don't think he has won coming from this far on the outside especially with Giant Expectations and Seeking the Soul to the outside of him.

These three are compromised by their post positions and will have to attempt to clear each other or get stuck wide like Chrome did.

If you were going to set up this race for Sharp Azteca, you couldn't assign him a better post.

Mc990
01-24-2018, 02:13 PM
I don't like Gun Runner's post position. I don't think he has won coming from this far on the outside especially with Giant Expectations and Seeking the Soul to the outside of him.

These three are compromised by their post positions and will have to attempt to clear each other or get stuck wide like Chrome did.

If you were going to set up this race for Sharp Azteca, you couldn't assign him a better post.

Agree completely. Considering the draw and recent form of some others in here, Sharp Azteca has a real chance to bury this field. Think he has to be considered the most likely winner.

cj
01-24-2018, 02:54 PM
He went two turns on Breeders' Cup day at Del Mar.

He did, i was there, not sure how I forgot. He wasn't very good that day I'm my opinion.

cj
01-24-2018, 05:56 PM
Pace Projector for the Pegasus attached:

Andy Asaro
01-24-2018, 05:58 PM
Pace Projector for the Pegasus attached:

Pretty sure Collected will be pushed out of the gate. IMO he'll be in front of Gun Runner into the first turn BUT I have been wrong before.

cj
01-24-2018, 06:11 PM
Pretty sure Collected will be pushed out of the gate. IMO he'll be in front of Gun Runner into the first turn BUT I have been wrong before.

The Pace Projector isn't perfect by any means, but when people try to outguess it efficiency increases by 70%! (And that includes me!) Joking aside, it is a tool that should be used as a starting point. We expect and want people to disagree.

Andy Asaro
01-24-2018, 06:12 PM
The Pace Projector isn't perfect by any means, but when people try to outguess it efficiency increases by 70%! (And that includes me!)

:lol:

Bennie
01-24-2018, 07:10 PM
I can see all the inside horses running as the pace projector shows but if Gun Runner is at that position at first call he is going to have to work early to get position. I hope he will lay off a little early but not enough where Sharp Azteca get an easy run. Or hopefully someone else pushes Azteca a little and Runner can sit off their shoulder a few lengths back. Everyone will be live to Gun Runner in the rainbow, if it is still alive and every other person will have Sharp Azteca. Will need to find the odd man out to have a shot at the rainbow pool. Just hoping they all come back safe and looking forward to an exciting race. And that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.;)

Afleet
01-24-2018, 08:15 PM
Did anyone watch West Coasts workouts? One work, about two weeks ago, they were whipping him to gallop out-wasn't that impressed and he is the one I like the most for the upset

GMB@BP
01-24-2018, 09:31 PM
Did anyone watch West Coasts workouts? One work, about two weeks ago, they were whipping him to gallop out-wasn't that impressed and he is the one I like the most for the upset

He always has been a crappy work horse, thats why they just were never that high on him last year and slow played him. That being said I am not sure about his chances here, he needs to improve and that inside draw may leave him some real traffic trouble going into the far turn. His best races were near the front and I wonder if he has that closing punch, good enough to be the the top horses, if he is more of a closer. He is also likely to be overbet in this spot as second choice.

I feel like Collected off his last race will and Sharp Azteca due to the distance are the only value in the race.

It does look like its only 4 horses that can win. I think I would press with Gun Runner and just back up to the other 2 with just a small saver to West Coast.

Andy Asaro
01-24-2018, 09:33 PM
What does Rosario do on Stellar Wind? My guess is he takes way back and makes one big run.

GMB@BP
01-24-2018, 10:00 PM
What does Rosario do on Stellar Wind? My guess is he takes way back and makes one big run.

He has no choice, she is way to slow early to go with these ones.

Andy Asaro
01-24-2018, 10:03 PM
He has no choice, she is way to slow early to go with these ones.

She used to be a dead closer but recently has stalked. Be interesting to see if first time Brown moves her up.

Afleet
01-24-2018, 10:08 PM
He always has been a crappy work horse, thats why they just were never that high on him last year and slow played him. That being said I am not sure about his chances here, he needs to improve and that inside draw may leave him some real traffic trouble going into the far turn. His best races were near the front and I wonder if he has that closing punch, good enough to be the the top horses, if he is more of a closer. He is also likely to be overbet in this spot as second choice.

I feel like Collected off his last race will and Sharp Azteca due to the distance are the only value in the race.

It does look like its only 4 horses that can win. I think I would press with Gun Runner and just back up to the other 2 with just a small saver to West Coast.

His work reminded me of Mor Spirits' works before the BC-I knew he wasn't going to run. Collected will be a drop dead send after that poor ride in his last. Think Azteca has to go also, leaving Gunrunner 3-4 wide for a majority of the race

cj
01-24-2018, 10:29 PM
She used to be a dead closer but recently has stalked. Be interesting to see if first time Brown moves her up.

She stalked in slow paced, small field races.

classhandicapper
01-25-2018, 10:29 AM
Here's my theory for today.

Smith sends Collected just enough to make sure Gun Runner is hung out 3 wide first turn. He may even take him 4-5 wide so Geroux has to use Gun Runner harder if he wants to get a good spot stalking. That still allows Smith to get good position and also allows West Coast to tuck in, get good position, and possibly even get first run at Sharp Azteca instead of having to close down Gun Runner and Collected like he had to in the Classic.

bpiets
01-25-2018, 12:20 PM
LAST YEARS RACE HAD A FEW THAT HAD TROUBLED RACES...SO THIS YEAR GUNRUNNER WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO WIN...LOL...EVEN THE OTHER GUN..... >>< :)>>>>CAN WIN THIS...( fill in the other letters...lol..)...:headbanger:but it looks like a 5-2-10-6 race.....and dettori is in the race with a shipper.....must be ready...

letswastemoney
01-25-2018, 01:02 PM
I'm not sold Sharp Azteca will burn through crazy 22/45 fractions.

I'm seeing more along the lines of 23/46, leaving him enough in the tank to win (if going this long really doesn't bother him).

jay68802
01-25-2018, 01:02 PM
Gunrunner is by far the best horse in the field. The wide trip will be overcome by the fact that he is just that much better than the rest of the field. Sharp Azteca and Collected can do anything they want to try and make it difficult for him, but in the end it will not matter.

Robert Fischer
01-25-2018, 01:17 PM
Here's my theory for today.

Smith sends Collected just enough to make sure Gun Runner is hung out 3 wide first turn. He may even take him 4-5 wide so Geroux has to use Gun Runner harder if he wants to get a good spot stalking. That still allows Smith to get good position and also allows West Coast to tuck in, get good position, and possibly even get first run at Sharp Azteca instead of having to close down Gun Runner and Collected like he had to in the Classic.
I agree with you.

Collected does seem like he'll be in a position that Mike Smith can employ some tactics. I don't expect a sacrifice, but a lane wider, and/or denying a lane to Gun Runner is very possible.

Toast of New York is an unknown, and never as quick as Gun Runner, but there is a slim chance that he will break running. The goal is to emulate his 2014 Classic where he was forwardly placed.

Gun Runner is more of a leader/presser at this point, so I expect him to be near the front. The first turn comes up quick, but not impossibly so. I'd guess that Irad breaks on top with Sharp Azteca and then relaxes into the 1st turn saving ground on the lead, rather than opening up on the lead. Lot's of 'ifs' and 'guesses', but Gun Runner could in fact break on a course to be just outside of Sharp Azteca, with Mike Smith having an option of urging to split the two in order to keep Gun runner a path wider. Race riding is a possibility taking an extra path wider.

PhantomOnTour
01-25-2018, 01:57 PM
Isn't this race setting up perfectly for Gunnevera to get a major share on his favorite track?

Thomas Roulston
01-25-2018, 02:00 PM
Isn't this race setting up perfectly for Gunnevera to get a major share on his favorite track?


Yes, a major share. Just not the winner's share.

cj
01-25-2018, 02:02 PM
Isn't this race setting up perfectly for Gunnevera to get a major share on his favorite track?

Didn't the Classic too?

PhantomOnTour
01-25-2018, 02:08 PM
I don't expect Gunnevera to win, but in the search for value, he's the one. Unless West Coast has improved. If Azteca and Collected go, as expected, he should pick up a lot of them. I'll likely key him 2nd and 3rd in tris.
Don't overlook the home track angle

linrom1
01-25-2018, 02:38 PM
I don't expect Gunnevera to win, but in the search for value, he's the one. Unless West Coast has improved. If Azteca and Collected go, as expected, he should pick up a lot of them. I'll likely key him 2nd and 3rd in tris.
Don't overlook the home track angle

That's fine but Watchmaker is picking Gunnevera!

Valuist
01-25-2018, 02:50 PM
Isn't this race setting up perfectly for Gunnevera to get a major share on his favorite track?

Absolutely. Still think he ran an absolutely giant race in the Travers, going wide on the turns on a day one wanted to be inside.

storyline
01-25-2018, 03:03 PM
I was surprised by the number of favorable posts in support of Sharp Azteca to win this race.

If he tries to wire the field (which is his best chance imo) I think he'll tire badly turning for home and finish in the bottom half of the field. If he rates Gun Runner, West Coast & Collected and others will outfinish him.

Under what circumstance would Sharp Azteca be a play? I'd need at a minimum 15-1 and believe that he'd NOT face any pace pressure until the 2nd call. Neither of those two things are likely.

For me I think there are 5 horses who have a shot to win based on the possible
race shape and class of those running.

Most likely - Gun Runner (offers little value as a win bet)
Serious Players - West Coast & Collected (should be well placed early)
Longshot if race falls apart at huge odds - War Story
The horse I played in 2014 BC Classic at huge odds - Toast of New York

I will include Gunnevera or Stellar Wind to finish 4th rounding out the super.

Mc990
01-25-2018, 03:35 PM
I was surprised by the number of favorable posts in support of Sharp Azteca to win this race.

If he tries to wire the field (which is his best chance imo) I think he'll tire badly turning for home and finish in the bottom half of the field. If he rates Gun Runner, West Coast & Collected and others will outfinish him.

Under what circumstance would Sharp Azteca be a play? I'd need at a minimum 15-1 and believe that he'd NOT face any pace pressure until the 2nd call. Neither of those two things are likely.

For me I think there are 5 horses who have a shot to win based on the possible
race shape and class of those running.

Most likely - Gun Runner (offers little value as a win bet)
Serious Players - West Coast & Collected (should be well placed early)
Longshot if race falls apart at huge odds - War Story
The horse I played in 2014 BC Classic at huge odds - Toast of New York

I will include Gunnevera or Stellar Wind to finish 4th rounding out the super.

Sharp Azteca has 2 Ragozin and 3 Thorograph figs that lay over this field (one of them around two turns), plus a few other races that would make him very tough. I think we should stop pretending he's anything other than a serious racehorse. Heck he almost defied the dead rail on BC day to beat battle of midway.

So we have the fastest horse who figures to make the lead/save ground and he's not going to be the favorite. Maybe he fades but I'll take my chances....

Gun Runner figures to be a huge underlay. Maybe he doesn't get bet from the 10 hole but I'm guessing he'll be no more than even money. He's harpooned without a significant figure edge.... no thanks, last time was the time to have him IMO.

GMB@BP
01-25-2018, 03:44 PM
Didn't the Classic too?

that was my issue, he should have been second in that race given the setup.

Robert Fischer
01-25-2018, 03:46 PM
Sharp Azteca has 2 Ragozin and 3 Thorograph figs that lay over this field (one of them around two turns), plus a few other races that would make him very tough. I think we should stop pretending he's anything other than a serious racehorse. Heck he almost defied the dead rail on BC day to beat battle of midway.

So we have the fastest horse who figures to make the lead/save ground and he's not going to be the favorite. Maybe he fades but I'll take my chances....

Gun Runner figures to be a huge underlay. Maybe he doesn't get bet from the 10 hole but I'm guessing he'll be no more than even money. He's harpooned without a significant figure edge.... no thanks, last time was the time to have him IMO.



Sharp Azteca is pretty much guaranteed an 'opportunity' to win, which is more than you can say for everyone.

Some believe that Navarro and Baffert didn't fire their best shots on Breeder's Cup day, so if that has any truth, could see some improvement from horses like Sharp Azteca and Collected in the stretch.

It's going to take a big performance or some unlucky trips from others to wire this field. He's got a puncher's chance. Odds figure to be fair.

onefast99
01-25-2018, 04:05 PM
All I remember is last year it was Chrome vs Arrogate now we have at least a group of 5 horses who could win this race.

upthecreek
01-25-2018, 04:06 PM
https://twitter.com/Pick4win/status/956618613670268931

classhandicapper
01-25-2018, 05:21 PM
I will include Gunnevera or Stellar Wind to finish 4th rounding out the super.

I think she's an interesting use for the bottom of some exotics also.

Pretty much everyone earth thinks she too slow to begin with and after the debacle in the Distaff, she looks even worse. But she didn't get out of the gate well that day and got pushed a little to get position while racing on the worst path inside.

That was literally the only poor effort of her career. It would not totally shock me if she bounced back with a good race Saturday.

At her best she used to give Beholder fits. Beholder held her own with some decent older males.

What's the fair price that Beholder could get a minor award in this race?

I'm not sure, but I think Stellar Wind is going to be a hell of lot longer than Beholder would be. If she just sits 4-5 lengths off it, I could see her hanging around for 3rd or 4th.

storyline
01-25-2018, 07:16 PM
I think she's an interesting use for the bottom of some exotics also.

Pretty much everyone earth thinks she too slow to begin with and after the debacle in the Distaff, she looks even worse. But she didn't get out of the gate well that day and got pushed a little to get position while racing on the worst path inside.

That was literally the only poor effort of her career. It would not totally shock me if she bounced back with a good race Saturday.

At her best she used to give Beholder fits. Beholder held her own with some decent older males.

What's the fair price that Beholder could get a minor award in this race?

I'm not sure, but I think Stellar Wind is going to be a hell of lot longer than Beholder would be. If she just sits 4-5 lengths off it, I could see her hanging around for 3rd or 4th.


Positionally I'd like to see Rosario put her against the rail and ahead of #1 Singing Bullet, that is a horse you don't want to be behind imo. That might have her laying 6th or so into what will most assuredly be a fast pace.

Afleet
01-25-2018, 08:04 PM
Didn't the Classic too?

he doesn't seem like a 1 1/4 horse

Afleet
01-25-2018, 08:06 PM
I don't expect Gunnevera to win, but in the search for value, he's the one. Unless West Coast has improved. If Azteca and Collected go, as expected, he should pick up a lot of them. I'll likely key him 2nd and 3rd in tris.
Don't overlook the home track angle

I agree w/you-he seems live to hit the board

Afleet
01-25-2018, 08:08 PM
I think she's an interesting use for the bottom of some exotics also.

Pretty much everyone earth thinks she too slow to begin with and after the debacle in the Distaff, she looks even worse. But she didn't get out of the gate well that day and got pushed a little to get position while racing on the worst path inside.

That was literally the only poor effort of her career. It would not totally shock me if she bounced back with a good race Saturday.

At her best she used to give Beholder fits. Beholder held her own with some decent older males.

What's the fair price that Beholder could get a minor award in this race?

I'm not sure, but I think Stellar Wind is going to be a hell of lot longer than Beholder would be. If she just sits 4-5 lengths off it, I could see her hanging around for 3rd or 4th.

she could get a nice ground saving trip; I could use her on the bottom of tris and supers

Fager Fan
01-25-2018, 08:26 PM
she could get a nice ground saving trip; I could use her on the bottom of tris and supers

I think she's done. Think of the times something like this has worked well, when a horse's career connections have retired a horse because they think she's done, but the new connection bring her back to her best. In her first race back after a seriously horrible last time out.

I can't think of a time. And now they're asking her to go against top older males. My prediction is she finishes in the second half of the field, and maybe even last.

classhandicapper
01-25-2018, 09:16 PM
I think she's done. Think of the times something like this has worked well, when a horse's career connections have retired a horse because they think she's done, but the new connection bring her back to her best. In her first race back after a seriously horrible last time out.

I can't think of a time. And now they're asking her to go against top older males. My prediction is she finishes in the second half of the field, and maybe even last.

That's why she'll probably be longer than 40-1. You have to fish for a reason to think she can regain her good form and even then wonder if that's enough to get her into the super.

Afleet
01-25-2018, 09:34 PM
I think she's done. Think of the times something like this has worked well, when a horse's career connections have retired a horse because they think she's done, but the new connection bring her back to her best. In her first race back after a seriously horrible last time out.

I can't think of a time. And now they're asking her to go against top older males. My prediction is she finishes in the second half of the field, and maybe even last.

you are probably right; she was such a good filly, not sure why they would run here

Fager Fan
01-25-2018, 10:24 PM
you are probably right; she was such a good filly, not sure why they would run here

New owner (Coolmore) who will chance these things (think of the horse who ran in Classic against Curlin and Hard Spun), figure shot at getting back nice chunk of her purchase price, and doesn't really matter, she retires right after to be bred.

I wouldn't do it.

The downside for this is if she has been given any Regumate or other drugs that make it so she doesn't get pregnant easily straight out of training.

Denny
01-25-2018, 10:30 PM
Since we're looking for some filler with value for the exotics, I'll go with one that has gotten very little mention and is an unknown to the general public -

FEAR THE COWBOY

Tom
01-26-2018, 10:47 AM
After looking at the full card, I am going to break my own rule and bet GP Saturday....I am going all in on the "Pick ~about 6"

onefast99
01-26-2018, 11:12 AM
After looking at the full card, I am going to break my own rule and bet GP Saturday....I am going all in on the "Pick ~about 6"the run up to the betting windows is at 21 feet, the bets will also be hand written, just in case you forgot how GP works operationally...
But they do have a nice Under Armour polo for $125...

Redboard
01-26-2018, 11:16 AM
After looking at the full card, I am going to break my own rule and bet GP Saturday....I am going all in on the "Pick ~about 6"


Kick-ass card. I'm with you.

cj
01-26-2018, 11:28 AM
After looking at the full card, I am going to break my own rule and bet GP Saturday....I am going all in on the "Pick ~about 6"



Wait until Sunday, unless somebody hits it before then it is mandatory payout day.

Tom
01-26-2018, 04:58 PM
Not if I take it Saturday! ;)

Secondbest
01-26-2018, 05:39 PM
I'm looking at 3 longshots for the Pegasus
#8 War Story He's what we used to call a creeper. Lost to Gun Runner twice at SAR. by 13 each time. The last time he faced him He was beaten by 4. Creeping closer. I would like him better if there was less time since the last race. Plus WS is a 6yr old gelding. They tend to hold their form longer. At 25-1 worth a look'
#9 Toast of New York. Ran a bang up race to Bayern then vanished for 3 years only to show up at Lingfield Where he won at 1 1/4 where he was passed then came on again.Now they ship here along with Dettori. With one work showing . Probably up the track but at 20-1 may be worth it.
#11Seeking the Soul Was running in optional Claimers then ran and won the Clark With an all time top [bris] An off the pace horse with the favorites all early early presser types. 25-1.
I'm thinking of putting these three up and back with Sharp Azteca and Gun Runner and depending on the odds betting all three to win. Plus an exacta box of all three.
Good Luck to all.

letswastemoney
01-26-2018, 05:52 PM
I know Seeking the Soul is a closer, but I still think starting from Post 11 knocks him out enough to where he doesn't have his usual kick late.

Lemon Drop Husker
01-26-2018, 06:07 PM
:6: Gunnevera

WP1981
01-27-2018, 12:44 PM
930am 1st post. Off at about 938. No doubt they will still be in the paddock at 3 mins to post by the 4th race. This is unnerving to me.

Watching international races and the caller will start to get frustrated if they are loading behind by a few seconds.

WP1981
01-27-2018, 12:58 PM
930am 1st post. Off at about 938. No doubt they will still be in the paddock at 3 mins to post by the 4th race. This is unnerving to me.

Watching international races and the caller will start to get frustrated if they are loading behind by a few seconds.

Make that race 2!

GMB@BP
01-27-2018, 02:14 PM
gonna be interesting when they have to hit a broadcast window.

GaryG
01-27-2018, 04:32 PM
WEST COAST...not at his best on the Dmr surface and ready to win the big one.

Tom
01-27-2018, 04:40 PM
gonna be interesting when they have to hit a broadcast window.

"Big race today!"
"Film at 11!"

dilanesp
01-27-2018, 04:51 PM
I like West Coast, who was still improving at the end of last year, at the price. Obviously if Gun Runner runs his race he will be tough to beat.

Robert Fischer
01-27-2018, 04:52 PM
"Big race today!"
"Film at 11!"

"The Most Exciting Forty-Five Minutes In Sports"

Robert Fischer
01-27-2018, 04:54 PM
50-1 shot just took the 9th. Hoping the Rainbow 6 isn't a lone winner today...

dilanesp
01-27-2018, 04:58 PM
"The Most Exciting Forty-Five Minutes In Sports"

Only because Gulfstream is timing it.

TVGfan
01-27-2018, 06:02 PM
Sharp Azteca hammered in the daily double pools

dilanesp
01-27-2018, 06:06 PM
West Coast was 3 to 2 a second ago. Betting without a tote board is fun.

GMB@BP
01-27-2018, 06:13 PM
West Coast 3/1?

dilanesp
01-27-2018, 06:14 PM
West Coast 3/1?

Yep. He is apparently the wise guy horse

jocko699
01-27-2018, 06:15 PM
I hope this is a safe race. I have been waiting for this race for the past 5 months for one reason,

I am ALL in on :5: Collected and Mike Smith!!!!!

Fager Fan
01-27-2018, 06:35 PM
Cool. Gold ring for connections. Wonder why no ones thought to do that before.

fiznow
01-27-2018, 06:38 PM
Ok i didn't want to bet but at these odds i place a fun win bet on Toast Of New York. For Europe and Frankie Detorri. Plus I like the story how this horse came back to racing.

Good luck! :)

Btw is Singing Bullet Stronach's best horse? :lol:

Tom
01-27-2018, 06:40 PM
Toast of NY???
Looks to me like he is the Toast of Hallandale today! :eek:

He is excited about the big race, fer sure! :cool::headbanger:

CincyHorseplayer
01-27-2018, 06:40 PM
With what I think are inflated prices around the :9: and 2 legit contenders.

$20 win :4:

Exactas

:4::10: $16

:10::4: $3

:4::9: $2

:10::9: $9

:9::4: $1

:9::10:$3

$54

Using the :10::4: as a saver. All other combinations ranging from $241-$369.

Good luck to all. Including me!:D

upthecreek
01-27-2018, 06:41 PM
https://twitter.com/SadandSulk/status/957381380111060992

Tom
01-27-2018, 06:52 PM
The Big horse won it.
The next big thing ran second.
The rest were there for the orange juice.

jocko699
01-27-2018, 06:54 PM
I hope this is a safe race. I have been waiting for this race for the past 5 months for one reason,

I am ALL in on :5: Collected and Mike Smith!!!!!

$$$$:puke::puke::puke:

Fager Fan
01-27-2018, 06:55 PM
THAT was worth watching. What a great race (and great ride) from an exceptional horse.

GMB@BP
01-27-2018, 06:55 PM
$$$$:puke::puke::puke:

Horse had every chance but was out of horse at the QP. Time for that horse to get a long break until del mar.

Tom
01-27-2018, 06:57 PM
Ouch!
Bet he's sorry he got off West Coast!

Hats of to Asmussen....gets top horses and keeps them on top.
15 starts in 2 years.....can't complain about that.
That's a career for many nowadays.

Fager Fan
01-27-2018, 07:00 PM
Hey, CJ, hear Belinda talking? And see me typing?

PaceAdvantage
01-27-2018, 07:12 PM
Nobody wanted the ring!

cj
01-27-2018, 07:17 PM
Hey, CJ, hear Belinda talking? And see me typing?

Nah, sorry, turned it off right after they crossed the wire. :)

upthecreek
01-27-2018, 07:22 PM
https://twitter.com/raypaulick/status/957392801867665409

upthecreek
01-27-2018, 07:24 PM
https://twitter.com/ScottyPick6/status/957392805298569217

Lemon Drop Husker
01-27-2018, 07:25 PM
Horse had every chance but was out of horse at the QP. Time for that horse to get a long break until del mar.

Needs a better Jock. ;)

Grits
01-27-2018, 07:26 PM
I haven't wanted a horse to win a race this badly since Rachel won the Woodward. I am thrilled he did this. And did it with such ease. I wasn't worried about the 10 post, I wasn't worried about West Coast, Sharp Azteca or any others.... I truly believed he'd have no trouble clearing the melee to the first turn and that he'd smoke 'em.

By the time he crossed the wire tears of joy were streaming down my face. For days, I've not spoken to, or disagreed with anyone, I didn't want to speak my opinion, and mush him. LOL

Bless him!!! Go, and make fine, fine babies, GUN RUNNER!!!! You have been an animal I feel privileged to have watched. You have been a true gift for our sport.

What a racehorse!! What an incredible race!!

Lemon Drop Husker
01-27-2018, 07:29 PM
I haven't wanted a horse to win a race this badly since Rachel won the Woodward. I am thrilled he did this. And did it with such ease. I wasn't worried about the 10 post, I wasn't worried about West Coast, Sharp Azteca or any others.... I truly believed he'd have no trouble clearing the melee to the first turn and that he'd smoke 'em.

By the time he crossed the wire tears of joy were streaming down my face. For days, I've not spoken to, or disagreed with anyone, I didn't want to speak my opinion, and mush him. LOL

Bless him!!! Go, and make fine, fine babies, GUN RUNNER!!!! You have been an animal I feel privileged to have watched. You have been a true gift for our sport.

What a racehorse!! What an incredible race!!

Very well said. Congrats, and a huge congrats to Gun Runner. :ThmbUp:

storyline
01-27-2018, 07:59 PM
I was surprised by the number of favorable posts in support of Sharp Azteca to win this race.

If he tries to wire the field (which is his best chance imo) I think he'll tire badly turning for home and finish in the bottom half of the field. If he rates Gun Runner, West Coast & Collected and others will outfinish him.

Under what circumstance would Sharp Azteca be a play? I'd need at a minimum 15-1 and believe that he'd NOT face any pace pressure until the 2nd call. Neither of those two things are likely.

For me I think there are 5 horses who have a shot to win based on the possible
race shape and class of those running.

Most likely - Gun Runner (offers little value as a win bet)
Serious Players - West Coast & Collected (should be well placed early)
Longshot if race falls apart at huge odds - War Story
The horse I played in 2014 BC Classic at huge odds - Toast of New York

I will include Gunnevera or Stellar Wind to finish 4th rounding out the super.


Stellar Wind got trapped behind horses on the turn and likely would have gotten a piece of the super @ 40-1. It's worth watching the replay.

Sharp Azteca who went off at outrageous odds of 4-1 and had little or no effect in the race and finished 8th I think, still waiting for the official results.

Exotic1
01-27-2018, 08:53 PM
I haven't wanted a horse to win a race this badly since Rachel won the Woodward. I am thrilled he did this. And did it with such ease. I wasn't worried about the 10 post, I wasn't worried about West Coast, Sharp Azteca or any others.... I truly believed he'd have no trouble clearing the melee to the first turn and that he'd smoke 'em.

By the time he crossed the wire tears of joy were streaming down my face. For days, I've not spoken to, or disagreed with anyone, I didn't want to speak my opinion, and mush him. LOL

Bless him!!! Go, and make fine, fine babies, GUN RUNNER!!!! You have been an animal I feel privileged to have watched. You have been a true gift for our sport.

What a racehorse!! What an incredible race!!

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Arguably his best performance to date.

Redboard
01-27-2018, 08:55 PM
Incredible performances by two incredible horses. The rest? Well, this is what happens why you give children a trophy for losing.

GMB@BP
01-27-2018, 09:00 PM
Needs a better Jock. ;)

yea, could be

Grits
01-27-2018, 09:02 PM
Nobody wanted the ring!

Does Brady wear any of his Super Bowl rings? I'm guessing not.

It was garish.

It look like something Tupac would wear. If he were still alive.

Tom
01-27-2018, 09:35 PM
BC gives you a watch. :rolleyes:

PaceAdvantage
01-27-2018, 09:36 PM
Does Brady wear any of his Super Bowl rings? I'm guessing not.

It was garish.

It look like something Tupac would wear. If he were still alive.Didn't expect them to take it out of the box and wear it right then and there.

But she tried handing it off and nobody went for it...I found that...funny...

Tom
01-27-2018, 09:36 PM
Does Brady wear any of his Super Bowl rings? I'm guessing not.

He uses one of them to deflate his balls. :eek:

Fager Fan
01-27-2018, 10:07 PM
Incredible performances by two incredible horses. The rest? Well, this is what happens why you give children a trophy for losing.

There were some decent horses in that second wave, so I wouldn't say that. I'd chalk it up to how well the first two ran.

jay68802
01-27-2018, 10:20 PM
BC gives you a watch. :rolleyes:

That's what they timed the race with.

Fager Fan
01-28-2018, 01:01 AM
There were some decent horses in that second wave, so I wouldn't say that. I'd chalk it up to how well the first two ran.

Beyer 119 for Gun Runner.

PhantomOnTour
01-28-2018, 01:20 AM
I don't expect Gunnevera to win, but in the search for value, he's the one. Unless West Coast has improved. If Azteca and Collected go, as expected, he should pick up a lot of them. I'll likely key him 2nd and 3rd in tris.
Don't overlook the home track angle

Easy race
The tri paid nicely with the chalk running 1-2

CincyHorseplayer
01-28-2018, 01:24 AM
I haven't wanted a horse to win a race this badly since Rachel won the Woodward. I am thrilled he did this. And did it with such ease. I wasn't worried about the 10 post, I wasn't worried about West Coast, Sharp Azteca or any others.... I truly believed he'd have no trouble clearing the melee to the first turn and that he'd smoke 'em.

By the time he crossed the wire tears of joy were streaming down my face. For days, I've not spoken to, or disagreed with anyone, I didn't want to speak my opinion, and mush him. LOL

Bless him!!! Go, and make fine, fine babies, GUN RUNNER!!!! You have been an animal I feel privileged to have watched. You have been a true gift for our sport.

What a racehorse!! What an incredible race!!

The 1st Lady of Playerdom! You are awesome Grits. I loved it as well!:)

CincyHorseplayer
01-28-2018, 01:31 AM
There has to be a temptation for Dubai just because. Right?

Fager Fan
01-28-2018, 02:38 AM
There has to be a temptation for Dubai just because. Right?

Assuming they've sold seasons, they can't.

Secondbest
01-28-2018, 10:44 AM
Well I took a shot with some longshots . Didn't work out but that's the way it goes. That's why their called longshots.

Gun Runner is one big time race horse.

GMB@BP
01-28-2018, 11:39 AM
Well I took a shot with some longshots . Didn't work out but that's the way it goes. That's why their called longshots.

Gun Runner is one big time race horse.

Pretty funny, if you just listened to the negative view race horses are a shadow of what used to be running on the track, but the last 6-7 years we have seen some really really good horses. But the overall depth is much lower, no denying that.

classhandicapper
01-28-2018, 11:59 AM
Stellar Wind got trapped behind horses on the turn and likely would have gotten a piece of the super @ 40-1. It's worth watching the replay.

Sharp Azteca who went off at outrageous odds of 4-1 and had little or no effect in the race and finished 8th I think, still waiting for the official results.

Stellar Wind also got steadied hard going into the first turn. That didn't help her position-wise either. She ran about as well as I expected. Given the trip, missing 3rd by 3 lengths was not embarrassing. I don't think I was wrong on her.

Sharp Azteca was one of those horses that had he won, I would have said I'm not shocked, but running the way he did, I was not shocked either.

Pace and speed figures estimate how fast a horse ran, but they don't tell you about the quality of the competition they were achieved against or what a horse is capable of if asked. The horses in the Cigar Mile and BC Dirt mile were not as good at these high level Grade 1 route horses even though he earned some big numbers in some of his recent races. He got outrun by better horses. It's always easier after the fact.

classhandicapper
01-28-2018, 12:05 PM
IMO, as much credit as Gun Runner is getting now, he's probably better than that. Breaking from the 10 post, stalking a quality horse like Collected, putting him away easily when barely asked, and holding off a rapidly improving monster like West Coast is no walk in the park. They buried the rest of the field.

If you look at his overall record and draw a line through the off track races (that were sub par), imo this a GREAT race horse that was just coming into his own.

gm10
01-28-2018, 12:09 PM
IMO, as much credit as Gun Runner is getting now, he's probably better than that. Breaking from the 10 post, stalking a quality horse like Collected, putting him away easily when barely asked, and holding off a rapidly improving monster like West Coast is no walk in the park. They buried the rest of the field.

If you look at his overall record and draw a line through the off track races (that were sub par), imo this a GREAT race horse that was just coming into his own.

I tend to agree with that.

burnsy
01-28-2018, 12:27 PM
I liked Gun Runner the first time I saw him run as a 3 year old. Bet him in the derby where he gave his all and came up short, but even then I knew he was a really good horse because he was the only one left standing from a torrid pace that year. As he got older he only got better. At 4 he learned how to relax and he was deadly at a 1 1/8 distance. Like they were saying yesterday, "he makes his own racing luck."

Since the two races have been run at Saratoga I've never seen a horse crush the Whitney and Woodward double like that. He's like a can of Red Bull, he sprouts wings late. Yesterday, there were really good horses in that race and Gun Runner made it look easy again. Congrats Gun Runner, I was a fan all along. Great race horse!

cj
01-28-2018, 12:33 PM
https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/status/957650960259665920

storyline
01-28-2018, 01:56 PM
Stellar Wind also got steadied hard going into the first turn. That didn't help her position-wise either. She ran about as well as I expected. Given the trip, missing 3rd by 3 lengths was not embarrassing. I don't think I was wrong on her.

Sharp Azteca was one of those horses that had he won, I would have said I'm not shocked, but running the way he did, I was not shocked either.

Pace and speed figures estimate how fast a horse ran, but they don't tell you about the quality of the competition they were achieved against or what a horse is capable of if asked. The horses in the Cigar Mile and BC Dirt mile were not as good at these high level Grade 1 route horses even though he earned some big numbers in some of his recent races. He got outrun by better horses. It's always easier after the fact.


Your comment about pace and speed figures isn't entirely accurate and I'll not speak to that because I'd need to explain and at this point I don't feel obliged.

The reason Sharp Azteca got outrun is as I posted (#162) I tried to caution players here about going all in on him. The scenario posted proved to be correct for anyone who watched the race.

"If he tries to wire the field (which is his best chance imo) I think he'll tire badly turning for home and finish in the bottom half of the field. If he rates Gun Runner, West Coast & Collected and others will outfinish him.

Under what circumstance would Sharp Azteca be a play? I'd need at a minimum 15-1 and believe that he'd NOT face any pace pressure until the 2nd call. Neither of those two things are likely".

There are plenty of things we are all wrong in this game but I thought my post left zero wiggle room.

For you to write "It's always easier after the fact" is insulting.

dilanesp
01-28-2018, 01:56 PM
Pretty funny, if you just listened to the negative view race horses are a shadow of what used to be running on the track, but the last 6-7 years we have seen some really really good horses. But the overall depth is much lower, no denying that.

Well, look. Gun Runner is a wonderful horse. But he is a wonderful horse based on, what, about 9 races since his loss in the 2016 Dirt Mile?

Historically, that is nothing. Of course, it looks like Forego compared to Arrogate's 4 race career as a top horse. But Gun Runner is, in fact, nothing like the old timers.

The only recent horses with an old time style career were Chrome and Game on Dude (and Beholder if you add in mares).

Fager Fan
01-28-2018, 02:43 PM
Can we say Secretariat? Zero runs at 4. Running at 4 is basically what most of our greats did. Most also had 15+ starts. The great geldings were exceptions. So I think if we have a horse who races through age 4, and hopefully showed quality from 2 til 4, those horses compare reasonably with "old schoolers."

But I think the point being made was that we've seen a cluster of horses getting 110+ Beyers, many in the high mid to high teens and above, after a relative drought, so I agree that this is encouraging.

Fager Fan
01-28-2018, 02:44 PM
PS: You forgot Curlin, and I don't see what CC did that was better than Curlin as far as racing length and taking on all comers.

cj
01-28-2018, 03:01 PM
Well, look. Gun Runner is a wonderful horse. But he is a wonderful horse based on, what, about 9 races since his loss in the 2016 Dirt Mile?

Historically, that is nothing. Of course, it looks like Forego compared to Arrogate's 4 race career as a top horse. But Gun Runner is, in fact, nothing like the old timers.

The only recent horses with an old time style career were Chrome and Game on Dude (and Beholder if you add in mares).

The game has changed. If we are going to hold up horses to the standard of the old days as far as how often they race we'll never have another great horse. Nobody thinks Clayton Kershaw isn't a great pitcher because Cy Young won over 500 games and he has only 144. He probably won't hit 250.

Fager Fan
01-28-2018, 03:15 PM
The game has changed. If we are going to hold up horses to the standard of the old days as far as how often they race we'll never have another great horse. Nobody thinks Clayton Kershaw isn't a great pitcher because Cy Young won over 500 games and he has only 144. He probably won't hit 250.

We don't want to dumb down our horses though.

dilanesp
01-28-2018, 03:19 PM
The game has changed. If we are going to hold up horses to the standard of the old days as far as how often they race we'll never have another great horse. Nobody thinks Clayton Kershaw isn't a great pitcher because Cy Young won over 500 games and he has only 144. He probably won't hit 250.

I know that.

It is worth noting, though, that you can take that argument way too far. For instance, if baseball gets to the point where starters pitch 3 innings, it really would be quite wrong to declare a 3 inning starter an all time great.

It is still possible to have a long career and lots of races. So why reward owners and trainers with fulsome praise for refusing to run their horses enough?

Gun Runner is very good. Not an all time great.

Fager Fan
01-28-2018, 03:21 PM
I know that.

It is worth noting, though, that you can take that argument way too far. For instance, if baseball gets to the point where starters pitch 3 innings, it really would be quite wrong to declare a 3 inning starter an all time great.

It is still possible to have a long career and lots of races. So why reward owners and trainers with fulsome praise for refusing to run their horses enough?

Gun Runner is very good. Not an all time great.

Not to worry. He won't be remembered as a great.

GMB@BP
01-28-2018, 03:24 PM
I know that.

It is worth noting, though, that you can take that argument way too far. For instance, if baseball gets to the point where starters pitch 3 innings, it really would be quite wrong to declare a 3 inning starter an all time great.

It is still possible to have a long career and lots of races. So why reward owners and trainers with fulsome praise for refusing to run their horses enough?

Gun Runner is very good. Not an all time great.

I would put him into the top 10 horses the past 20 years, thats gotta put you into pretty good company in terms of great.

I dont think he was as good as Arrogate, more consistent and stayed on form longer, but not as talented in peak form.

He is better than Curlin in my book, better than Rachael or Zenyatta for sure, better than Blame and Mineshaft. I mean, honestly you cant count on many that were better in 20 years.

fiznow
01-28-2018, 03:33 PM
They should run Gun Runner in the Dubai World Cup again. If he wins he is really great and will be in the history books.

cj
01-28-2018, 03:41 PM
Not to worry. He won't be remembered as a great.

Sure he will, unless you're an old fuddy duddy. :)