Longshot Stew

[Shacopate]

This is a rating I came up with based on a fusion of ideas.

Pizzollas PPF
Quirin Speed Points
Sartins paceline selection method

1. Quantify the PPF into a number based on fps.

Example: 3rd fraction distance - beaten lengths x 10 divided by final time (winner) - 2nd call (lead) time x 2.5

Spreadsheet would look like this: =(F8-E8*10)/(D8-B8)*2.5

I found that with this formula, one point equals one lenght. Keeping it in line with the Pizzolla method.

2. Simply add the horses QSP's to the rating.

3. Paceline selection will be "best of last three that best fits todays condition."

This is dirt only.

Alot of handicappers focus on the "sexy" plays, such as dominant early speed, class drops, and hard hitting closers. This method, in my limited experience has uncovered alot of "run even and inherit the win" types. Horses that are close enough to be competive and that have the reserves to get their picture taken.

I would consider any horse rated within 2 points of the top selection at odds of 10-1 or better to be a very good bet.

[Dutch]

Let's see if I have this right? A LS Spot Play based on Sartin methodology pace figures (energy?), QSP and odds.
You listed the Paceline as last, but I suppose you use that, to pick a paceline for the other figures, right?
I don't remmber the pace energy figures you mentioned - looks like they are based on the third call. I'm surprised you - or anyone else - is still using QSP - that's pretty old-fashioned methodolgy.
One thought - how much action do you get with this? Most LS plays only win 10-12%, so if you don't get much action, and have that low a win Per cent - most humans wouldn't have the patience for it.