Anyone out there still using Master Magician?

[DBC]

This has been my program of choice for a couple of years now. I know some people don't care for the Handicapping Magic numbers, but I find them sufficient for my purposes. I believe the PPF is an excellent predictor if used in the context of the probable pace of today's race. I would like to discuss proper use of the program with anyone out there who is having success with it. A number of conflicts have arisen with my own personal use, such as proper use of the LASST vs the two excuse modules, and just how far back to go in form cycle windows. I also have struggled some in certain pace scenarios, specifically I have noticed with frequency that early type horses are often winning in heavy pressure scenarios, which conflicts with the very premise of the heavy pressure scenarios. Anyone out there have a feel for how to predict when this might happen? I would be most appreciative of any responses from other users of the software.

[kingfin66]

Hi DBC,

I use TMM with mixed results. I say "mixed" results because I have found that there is a learning curve with each track. EmD is my home track and I have a pretty good feel with using the program there. I also have a pretty good feel for Hollywood. Del Mar is another story. When I initially started using the program, I thought that I could just apply the same HM principles to every track in the same manner. You cannot do this. Also, different types of races may favor certain types of runners or ratings.

You're right that many people don't like TMM. That's ok, because you should use what works well for you. Many people here have read the book and found it to not be their cup of tea. You will find some people that post here who enjoy the program (search Handicapping Magic and/or Michael Pizzolla and you find numerous threads on the topic).

Most of your specific questions can be answered with "it depends."

Regarding use of LASST v. Two Excuse. In most cases, I would recommend using Two Excuse. In most cases, there is little if any difference between the two. When you find large differences, you should probably pass the race unless you have tons of price to reward you for your risk. Go as far back in the Form Cycle Window as the program (assume you're using TMM that sets the window for you). You can always exclude a line that looks out of whack. The program also has an aberrency checker.

I agree with you that you will see early type horses win some heavy pressure races. That's horse racing for you. Someome noted in a different thread that pace scenarios often fail to develop as we think they will. This can partially explain this. Also, I think track differences can play a factor. A track like Emerald Downs plays like the Autobahn on most days. It sustains early horses even with lots of pressure. For a track like this, I tend to favor PBS ratings even in races with pressured pace and longer races. You may want to consider passing these heavy pressure races at speed favoring tracks, or look for big prices to reward the risk you are taking.

Have you ever noticed that S horses with big gaps often win races with early pace scenarios? Stuff happens.

I am actually beginning to assemble a TMM database for the tracks I play and intend to play in the future - SoCal, NYRA, Kentucky, and my beloved EmD. I intend to get a good idea of what the predictive factors are for each track. The downside of this approach is that it is extremely time consuming and tedious. The upside is that it should give me an added edge when using the program, and help me to rely less on anecdotal evidence. One of my pet Pizzolla peeves is that he will state that the fulcrum horse finishes 2nd a significant amount of times, but never gives numbers to support the position. So far, I have not observed this to be true, but time will tell...

Anyway, glad to see a fellow MM on the board. There are several others around. Some post while some just lurk. Enjoy the site for all the other stuff it has to offer too.

[Speed Figure]

It's on ebay for sale.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=47103&item=5514841652&rd=1

[DBC]

Kingfin66

Thanks so much for your response. I too have been lurking here for quite some time, and only recently have begun to contribute. I had previously read these other threads you talk about but was looking for some fresh info.

I guess I need to be a little more specific about my form cycle concerns. A problem I've run across lately has been popping up rather frequently at Saratoga, and is a good example of why you can't accept the first screen you see at face value. A horse will have good ratings from way back in his form cycle, along with a high contention factor leading you to believe you have a potential play the public shouldn't like. Then when you inspect the horse's form he shows a long layoff, maybe no races at all last year, and significantly better form from two years ago. Maybe two or three comeback races this year with so-so form but the program opens the form cycle all the way to the bottom, including superior ratings from two years ago. This happens frequently in mid level claimers (20K to 40K for example) and the horses almost never run back to their older numbers. This is something that I have found has to be carefully watched for or you end up betting on horses that have no chance to win. This is a flaw I have found in the program's form cycle interpretation which forces you to not accept the screen at face value as you open it up. In these cases I just reset the window to end with this year's first race and it has saved me some money I previously would have squandered on "yesterday's form."

Funny you should mention Emerald Downs as that is one of the tracks where the early pace horses do seem to win often in heavy pressure races. I haven't bet Emerald too much but I do watch it occasionally when TVG carries their card. I will try to accentuate PBS more at that track and see how it goes.

I usually play New York, Ky, Illinois and So Cal as these are emphasized on live tv.(hate betting races I can't watch). You spoke of making a data base for TMM--sounds like a great idea if you're willing to do the work. I have noticed that you can't use the program the same way no matter where you play, so a database should be a very helpful tool here.

I have noticed, as you have, the gapped sustained horses winning ''early" races, especially in the "speed of speed" scenario. It seems these races often run more like pressured races than the pressured races do, as the speed of speed horse often fails to shake loose. I have grown to completely distrust the heavy pressure scenario at distances less than 7 furlongs. Seems I have lost more money on sustained pressers at these shorter distances than any other.

I have also noticed the PPF is much more reliable if not taken from a pace more than 2/5 slower than the fulcrum. These artificially high PPFs are rarely repeated vs the faster pace, especially if the number was earned on the lead.

Do you subscribe to Pizzola's theory of using turf line PPFs in dirt races? This seems to me to be a distorted view of a horse's true ability.

Thanks again for responding to my thread, as I have for quite a while been looking for someone who speaks the HM language to commiserate with.

[cato]

Just a few thoughts on TMM.

MP has recently indicated that he dos not use races that are more than a year old...although of couse, no hard and fast rules.
It woudl be nice if in an update of the program you put a time limit on how far back the program could go to pick a race.

PPF is worthless if the pace line is not competitive. PPF is worthless if the pace line is not competitive. PPF is worthless if the pace line is not competitive. I'm trying to drill this into myself but I'm a sucker for a big PPF number at a price and either don't notice that the paceline is not competitive or often fool myself into making a bet anyway.

While the pace line scenarios often do not develop as predicted, I find that the Lone E designated horses certainly win more than their fair share. And it is no that unusual for a longshot "S" o come in on a Heavily Pressred race. So far I ahve not found much use for the designations of Speed of Speed, Neutral or Pressured.

I have never had success in using the turf lines for dirt. It does not makeany sense to me and does not seem to be predictive. While MP indiactes that it brings you the "price" horses, so would throwing darts.

Just a few thoughts...let's keep it going

Tak care, Cato

[andicap]

I don't use MM, BUT i've found in my paceline picking to avoid lines where the pace is three ticks slower than what it should be. These races are not truly run races. Early horses get brave and get too high a final fraction. mid-pack and late horses show big third fractions but can't gain on the leaders (a great spot play of course is playing these horses back in races where the pace could be hotter.)

One of those things that handicapping "experts" and books often overlook in talking about pacelines.

I truly believe that's why a lot of people say energy doesn't work -- they're' using skewed pacelines. An "E" horse who usually runs a 53.50% can do a 51.50% if he can slow down the pace by three ticks at the 2nd call. If you use THAT race as his paceline or energy figure you'll get an inaccurate reading, both in Master Magician and in any program.

[Erudito]

DBC, have you listened to any of MP Seminar tapes? I think that the problem lies in your holding fast to numbers instead of allowing your intuitive side to kick in. MP said that there are more into this game than numbers alone. I don't expect any software which handicaps to be a black box. Sure sometimes the program will make great calls and make this game look too easy, other times, it will need the help of your brain to tell the program that it has gone to the left field. If you approach this game with the expectation that any software will be able to spit numbers and just bet the top number, your bankroll is in jeopardy for a slow death. Kenny Rogers in his song says, "you need to know when to hold'em, and when to fold'em". I don't use TMM nor MM anymore. But the lessons which I learned from the seminar tapes are still valid because how you approach this game is the key to success.

[DBC]

Cato

The first thing I do now when I open a race is go to race preferences and turn off both use turf pacelines in dirt races and the aberrancy checker. I prefer to do my own aberrancy check as different races must be viewed from different perspectives.

In most cases I eliminate pacelines more than 2/5 slower than the fulcrum--I know Pizzola tends to give more leeway here, but I agree with you--PPF is worthless if the paceline isn't competitive.
When you demand the paceline to be competitive it's amazing how often a seemingly mismatched field becomes much closer--many times I've opened a race thinking I might have a nice two or three horse cluster with a large gap only to find 6 or 7 horses within a point after eliminating slow pacelines.

Another clue that the PPF is questionable is a low PBS compared to the field. I generally try to keep my win bets among the top five PBS numbers no matter the pace scenario.


Andicap

Good points concerning early energy--sounds like you come from a Sartin background--I used some of his earlier programs, stopping with energy. I'm now a downloading junkie, so those programs don't work for me anymore, but I thought energy was a very good piece of software for its time.

Erudito

I attended the Oct 2002 seminar in Las Vegas--at the time was new to TMM. I also have the videotapes of that seminar and I refer to them frequently.

You are quite perceptive--I'm a left brained numbers guy and I constantly fight my tendencies to look for the black box--I just don't have the faith in my intuitive side I should. Some of the best paceline calls I have ever made could not be explained logically, from a left brained perspective. I just "felt" a line was wrong for the race and after eliminating it the race became clear to me.

Thanks to all three of you for your responses.

[LARRY GEORGE]

I RUN INTO YOUR PROBLEM ALOT EARLY HORSES WINNING IN A HEAVY PRESSURE RACES MIKE TOLD ME IF THE VALUE IS RIGHT PLAY THE EARLY HORSE.

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by LARRY GEORGE
IMIKE TOLD ME IF THE VALUE IS RIGHT PLAY THE EARLY HORSE.

Make sure you have value before you play any horse. Make sure you also have price before you play the early horse in the Heavy Pressure race.

[DBC]

I have a rather simpleton view of value and price. At an average odds of 3/1, you must hit 30% winners to make 20% profit. At 7/1 you need only win 15% to profit the same 20%. IMHO the latter scenario is easier to accomplish. I seldom try a win bet at less than 5/1, which means I pass a lot of races. I really like TMM's contention line for this purpose as it steers you toward possible plays like this and away from chalky races. The contention line also will alert you when a juicy looking longshot may not be as good as it appears on the surface, which helps keep you out of bad bets.

[kingfin66]

They aren't the same thing. You are looking for price which is good, but are you looking for value? Getting 5/1 on a horse that should be 10/1 isn't good value. I have been guilty of this many times. We can't pass every race...

[DBC]

You are of course correct -- a 5/2 shot may indeed be a good value -- I just choose not to play at such low odds -- I look for horses that are a good value at 5/1 or better -- the deeper side of the pool, as MP would say. I may however use that 5/2 shot in exactas if I can find what I think is value there.

[Blackgold]

I have found E and EP runners to win Heavy Pressure races when there are too many closers.

For instance, I was looking at a race today that was Heavy Pressure and 7 of the 10 were closers, so I simply passed the race.

What TMM has done for me that no other book, program, angle, etc.- when I do decide to invest in a race, it's because I've picked it apart.

When I win a race I often have it all- the exacta, tri and super and that makes up for the ineveitable losing streaks.

The PPF is worth it's weight in gold. Often the Beyers and BRIS speed numbers will not reflect those long priced PPF runners with a shot to win or hit the board today. And when comparing runners from many different tracks, nothing works better than the PPF.

If you want to make money with TMM, I suggest being very selective. I'm getting better at that. If the exotic structure doesn't come easiy and that win bet doesn't jump off the page, then I probably don't understand the race enough to get involved.
Then I gambling and I do that often enough when I drive on the Interstate.

So much of the time my $120-$150 investment in a race scores big while my $296 invested races turn out as fuzzy as when I was looking at them.

The simplicity is- you get good ratings on runners and with the PPF, hidden ratings the public never sees.

You then look at the runner and make a call. Is it likely that TODAY he will run to that number? Is the pace suited to that runner? The right surface? Right distance? Basic handicapping stuff.

I think MP said it best in one of his seminar tapes that the late Ray Talbout was quoted as saying, "You wait until everything is right- and you are getting a good price."

[DBC]

Blackgold

Thanks for your reply. I have read some of your other posts in older threads concerning TMM--sounds like you have mastered the HM principles. You made a very good point concerning PPF--its not how good the number is, its that we have a number not familiar to the general public, which allows us a chance to get a price when we get high ratings. My biggest weakness is not being patient enough, and I probably force bets just because I hate to see a horse win at good odds that I had a number on without any money on it. I will try to improve in that area.

How many cards do you look at daily? I tend to just play the major circuits mostly because of TVG coverage. Have you had success at minor tracks? I do occasionally check out Mnr and Emd when TVG carries their cards.

I never noticed early runners winning HP races when there were too many closers, but I will watch for that. Seems to me if 7 of 10 horses in a race are closers it would be difficult to come up with an HP scenario.

[Blackgold]

I often start checking out my FAV tracks, as of now it's DMR, SAR, LAD, AP, MNR, RET. If I don't find anything there then I look at PIM, PENN, DEL, CALDER. I don't look at places I can't pronounce or have never head off (where is Ferndale?).

Always look at tracks with full fields as MP says, the more runners the more likely the public is going to make a mistake.

I focus on tracks with Turf courses as the PPF is very powerful.

The hardest thing about this game (profession) is sitting on your hands, yet that is where a lot of your bankroll growth will come from.

Don't be afraid to make those "mental health" bets. I've scored as much as between $1,000- $4,000 simply boxing 4 runners ($2 exacta, $1 tri and super= all total $72).

Yes, races come up Heavy Pressure with lots of closers. The Stephen Foster (part of the 1st NTRA P4) was HP and there were 5 closers and guess what, the $100+ runner got up.

On the other hand this past spring during those Magana Sunshine Millions I loved a Roberta runner with Kent D. up in a Heavy Pressure sprint and she went off at an astonishing 48-1. Came in 2nd with the Fulcrum ITM and another closer in the super, but a 22-1 speedstir wired the field. Tore up my tickets on that one, yet someone took the whole super pool for a whopping $90 grand.

I've also learned to sit out races where I don't like the odds. Watched two $10 winners this weekend and I didn't bet them because I wanted $15.

There is always another race.

I suggest you cancel TVG and get several services so you can always get down if you like a race. I use YouBet, FGNetBet (you can bet Magna there) and BrisBet and not one of them can I bet all the tracks.

If you are having a slump or feel any frustration, go listen to or watch the tapes again. You will always pick something up you didn't before. MP has a way of spewing this stuff out fast because it's so ingrained in him, so you may pick up some keys you didn't hear before.

Bottom line- I never hit a $700 quinella before HM. I never took a whole superfecta pool before HM, nor did I ever hit a super. I never had a tax problem before HM.

The value in TMM is it has several tools that you must use some judgement as to when to apply, sorta like life- there is no one answer and many right answers.

MP says think like a lawyer- who is telling the truth? It's who is paying!

Which of those contenders you like is going to win or hit the board? Who is paying?

One tool that no one on this board discusses is the Value Tech Module. I've made some big scores by including a Heavy Play runner with my selections in the exotics. Maybe the runner exceeded his level because of the Vets Beyer has whinned about. Maybe he had hidden works. The Heavy Play runner is also a good reason to stay out of the race, if I don't have a clue as to why the money is being sent in.

Learn to let the bet make you. That is a lifetime goal as we are all humans and just like the runners we love to bet on, anything can knock us off form. But your consulation is having that tax form you never had before. Good luck!

[Blackgold]

Let me show you how I go through a card.

Just downloaded DMR for today, Sat., Aug. 20th.

Race 1-

Says will be Lone E, the 3, which is also the Fulcrum and the 2nd Fav @ 3/1.

I open the HD, apply the E filter and yes, the 3 will probably be Lone E.

The Value Tech selection, the 4 has a gapped PPF over the Lone E and can run E also.

However, the PPF comes from the last race and it is a turf number. I like using PPF turf numbers in pressure and off tracks.

Can the 4 keep up at the projected pace of 1:09 and 3. Nowhere in his PPs suggests he can.

Off to the next race.

Race 2-

The gapped PPF is the 2 which is also the 2/1 ML Fav. Is the Fav legit?

Well the 4 is a Mullins trained 2nd career race, also route 1. Can't count this one out at 5/1.

There are others making their 3rd career starts and some Blinks 1. The 2 will probably be beat, but by who and since he will probably be ITM, the exotics won't pay much.

Good race to pass.

Race 3-

The 3 has the gapped PPF @ 6/1 ML and the 7/2 5 is the Fulcrum.

Are we going to get 6/1 with the Frankel trained 3 with C. Nak up? Probably not.

And you've got the wildcard IRE 7.

Exotics probably won't pay much and Value Tech has the 3 going off at 5/2. . . on to the next race.

Race 4-

Tons of first time starters. You that like to follow trainers and sires proficient with FTS- go fish.

Race 5-

A pressured race, usually the kind I like.

Value Tech stops on the 11, 3/1 ML and projected to go off higher. But the 11 is not a closer.

The Fulcrum, the 7 can close and he's 5/1 ML.

Other closers are the 1, 3, 5.

The 5 looks interesting, but has low PPF compared to others and is making his 4th start off a layoff and probably ran his best race last out.

On to the next race.

Race 6-

Another fishing expedition. Pass.

Race 7-

Another pressured race. Good!

And one of those Alw Op Cl which not only totally confuses the public, but often me too.

The Value Tech selections are the 8 and the 6. The 8 has the wrong running style, although can close a little and the 6 is the Fulcrum and can close. Both their PPFs come from turf and I find taht o.k. in pressure races.

However, the 1,2,3,4 and 7 can close also. This race may very well go to an E or EP and out top number and Value Tech selection is the 8. However, the 8 is making his 2nd start off a layoff and may bounce after winning last.

We have another E/P horse, the 5, which is the Fav and is coming from the G1 Bing Crosby last. Probably a legit Fav.

PASS

Race 8-

The Value Tech is the 3, last out winner with a gapped PPF, but it's coming from the turf and today's race is projected to be netural pace.

The Fulcrum is the 8/5 Fav.

Pass

Race 9-

Ah, a turf race with some gapped PPF runners.

The gapped PPF runners and also Value Tech selections are 9, 1 and 4.

The odds are 10/1, 7/2 and 8/1.

The Fulcrum is the 3 at 6/1.

Let's pick this one apart and see if we can come up with a profitable play.

The pace is projected to go Neutral the the Fulcrum target pace of the 3 is 1:10 and 4.

First we look for reversers.

The reverse winner of the Sea Harbor race is the 1, one of the Value Tech selections and gapped PPF. The Fulcrum, the 3 finished behind the 1 and may reverse in this race.

The 7 finished 2 lenghts out in the Sea Harbor race, can at least meet the Fulcrum today and must be considered.

The 8 comes out of the Sea Harbor race and finished ahead of the 7. Must be used under in the Tri and Super.

The 10 lead in the Sea Harbor race and finished 4th by 1.5 lenghts. He'll probably be out there again today with the 5.

Now let's look at the Favorite, the 1. He is one of the VT selections and the PPF comes from March at SA. Is an S runner in a N race. Can he be beat. Yes! Value Tech projects the 1 to go off way above the ML, why. . . let's see. Well he loves to finish 2nd and is making 2nd start off a layoff and the last looks hard. Ladies and Gentlemen we have an unlikely favorite here.

Any more runners coming off a layoff?

The 2, but all his races are those marathons so we have no PPF rating. We have Mullins off the layoff with Baze up. 3 works in 15 days. Must consider for exotics.

The most recent gapped PPFs are the 9 and the 4, with both numbers coming from the last race.

The 4 was MDN winner last and moves up today.

The 9, has one of the best speed numbers at today's distance. . .has won once and finished 3rd once at the distance. . . has a pressing running style and finished 1.5 lenghts out May 12th on the turf @ 1:10.2 pace. . . bug boy up getting 5 lb. weight allowance.

Can you tell I'm gonna punch the 9?

Depending on the odds at post time, I'll use the 9 in some combination with the other VT's the 1 and 4. . .more heavily with the 1.

In the TRI and Super the 3, the Fulcrum will be positioned under.

I'm not going to use the 8 reverser, but am going to use the 7.

Will I cash big here? Only time will tell. But it is likely that the exotics in this race will be good and I don't think 1 will win. In fact, may take a shot with as many as 5 in the win hole with the 1 in the place hole with those 5 again in the show spot. Another nice little trick from MP, only $20.

Of course I'm passing the other races because in them I would just be gambling. If you have a hard time waiting for the 9th and feel like you must gamble, the do what I do. . . get in your car and get on the Interstate and try and drive the speed limit.

Good Luck!

[kingfin66]

Blackgold,

Nice post. The great thing about TMM is that all of that handicapping probably took you all of 15 minutes, typing not included.

Your use of turf numbers for pressured races is very interesting. I can't do that at this point in my handicapping life, but I will be examing the numbers when I put together my Dmr database for this meet to see if using turf lines is a good play.

One small criticism. Although I have no doubt of your understanding of TMM and its various nuances, your statement regarding Fulcrum pace/horses is a little bit off. You referred to the "projected pace" a couple of times in your post. The fulcrum is really not a projection of the pace (although it is often very predictive). It is really the pace at which we want a horse to have demonstrated a degree of success (finish) when running against it. Like I said, I have no doubt that you already know this, but I want others who read your excellent post to be aware of what the fulcrum really is.

I wasn't going to 'cap Dmr today, but I guess I need to look at the ninth race.

Regards.

[DBC]

Thanks for the help, Blackgold--I feel like I just went back to an MP seminar. You reminded me of a lot of things I had forgotten. I too had handicapped the DMR card today and decided to pick apart the second race. The key to me was a negative opinion of the fav #2--at 1m on dirt I thought his lack of speed in turf races was a real negative so I threw him out of the exacta. Using your advice on a previous post I noticed the 4, the Mullins trained 2nd timer, was a heavy play horse. Since the race was neutral, I looked for good PBS # to hook with the 4 and landed on the 1,who had improved his PBS by 23 points in his second start while 4 wide,and 7, both at good odds. I thought the 1 would be out there on the lead while the 7 showed a couple of decent closes, so I played the 4 up and down with the 1 and 7 in the exacta, and if you checked the results today you know the 4-1 exacta paid 220 bucks. I feel like I owe that hit to your insight, as the key was using the heavy play horse as a key after I decided the 2 was a good play against horse.

Again I really appreciate the help, and I'll refer frequently to your last post as a guide in how to cap a card properly.

[Blackgold]

Yes, the Fulcrum is not the projected pace. . . but the target pace.

Congrats on your score(s).

I missed the 9th at DMR when neither the 9 nor the 4 managed to stay around for a piece. Nice win by the Fulcrum though.

Well, as I read somewhere. . . "they play the National Anthem everyday."

Onward!

[DBC]

Even though you missed the 9th your analysis of the vulnerability of the favorite was right on, and a simple key of the 1 second would have brought a 60 dollar exacta home. I did have the exacta, but not for any serious profit as I keyed both the 1 and the 3 second with more on the 3 second. The tri was gettable because the 10 who ran 3rd came out of the same race as the 1 and 3 --unfortunately I played the tri with the speed out altogether. Nice work anyway, and thanks again as you have helped me get back on the right path with TMM.

[DBC]

Been a slow day so far today as I looked at the cards from Sar, AP, ElP, and Dmr. Races ranged from too chalky to play to too contentious to play, so I sat on my hands. However the 8th at Sar was just like a fastball down the middle to TMM users. After several scratches a field of 10 was left for the mile race on the turf for n1x, with the 4,10,and 1 gapped by 5 points over the field in PPF. Pace/position designated the race Lone Early-the 5 horse, What to Wear. However the Lone E horse faced a 7 pt disadvantage in PPF and looked vulnerable. The 10 horse, Winlocs Glory Days, was the only other designated early runner in the race and was in the top cluster, so he became the logical key. At 5-1 I wasn't interested in a win bet, but with the other two gapped horses at 6-1 and 13-1 the exacta play was easy. The 10 went by the lone E horse at the top of the stretch and held off all but the 1 who closed to win and key an exacta paying $81.50. The 9, who finished 3rd at 49-1, was next behind the gapped horses in PPF and keyed a nearly $2000 tri, making me wish I had played the tri. I'm not complaining though, nothing wrong with an $80+ exacta that was easy to get with only 4 combinations. PPF's just work so well on the turf, sometimes I wonder why I even bother with dirt races.

[Blackgold]

Good going DBC.

I hit the 5th @ PIM today.

When your sort by PPF ('cause PBS #'s coming from too many different tracks) you get the 9,7 in two excuse mode.

Ex only $62.60, but tri nice $359 for a buck and the super paid over a thou for a buck (with the Fulcrum finishing 4th).

Sign on!

[DBC]

Nice one. You probably run into that problem with PBS at Pim pretty frequently, don't you, with all those shippers from Cnl, CT, Pha, Pen, and so on? PPF handles shippers better than any number I've ever seen. Of course I noticed that the exacta and 3 of the 4 super horses were still in the top 3 and ties in PBS. The key to the nice tri and super had to be the ppf on the 9 though. I'm going to have to open an account somewhere where I can play Magna tracks I guess. I wager through Americatab only right now. Their service is excellent, but no Magna tracks except TDN. I use TVG on satellite just to watch races--I don't have an active account with them. I like to limit bets to races I can watch, so I'm usually with the TVG tracks. Don't have high speed internet, so on line video is worthless to me.

[DBC]

I feel as though the holy grail of handicapping has been unlocked, if only I can maintain the discipline to wait for opportunities I really understand, and quit "gambling". Time will tell if I can do so.l

[Buckeye]

Anyone out there still WINNING money with TMM?

Just thought I'd ask.

[Blackgold]

Bucky I netted over $14K (after taxes) last year and am on pace to do that again this year, yet I suspect I'll pass that mark as have come so close so many times to hitting a monster exotic. Was just half a length from getting the first NTRA P4 on a $146 investment (it paid $17K).

The key with this program is- you spend a lot of time looking, but not an inordinate amount of time.

You go through cards very quickly.

When you spot a race or two you try and pick them apart and if you can, you can usually hit on all cylinders and take those exotics that bounce your bankroll to the next level.

That longshot that ran into the tri yesterday at PIM was the top rated number. The fulcrum made the super. The overbet (@ 5/1)place horse was the 2nd top number and the 4.5/1 winner figured. It was a race that I understood enough that a small investment got big returns.

There are others yesterday that hit other races that I passed because they take the numbers in their context of understanding of a race. Maybe they understand MDNs better that I. Maybe they can view E and EP races better than I. Sounds like DBC understands the PBS number better that I.

The key again is those wonderful numbers that bring up longshots and that wonderful program that helps you structure an inexpensive exotic play to net those longshots somewhere ITM.

Here's one for you. Today SAR race 5. The 6 should go off at a good price and hit the board. The 1, the Fulcrum @ 4/1 should show up too. If the race stays on the turf, could make for a nice play, depending on the odds at post time.

Good luck!

[sjmeola]

PFF every race in 2 excuse mode....


No Value No Bet !

Dont be afraid to hurt a fav or move up a bomb Now and then !


SJ

[andicap]

good to see you posting on here Sammy!

:D :) :D :D

This guy's been using Pizzolla's stuff for years -- he knows it inside and out.

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by sjmeola
PFF every race in 2 excuse mode....


No Value No Bet !

Dont be afraid to hurt a fav or move up a bomb Now and then !


SJ

PPF/2 excuse for every race? I can see that at a track like Belmont, or any other with lots of moving around from track to track. At my local track, there aren't many adjustment issues after the first 25-30 racing days, so I am able to use PBS for most sprints. I agree with you on two excuse.

Welcome to the board. Registered Feb 2003 and only 1 post. Don't be a stranger!

[Pubby]

Re: PPF

Does anyone have an opinion on horses bouncing (so to speak) off an effort with a good PPF rating? Can the PPF rating be used similiar to a Beyer or Sheet type number where one could see patterns or reactions to previous efforts?

If one were to compare PPF to a common denominator, say 26 seconds for the last quarter of a 6 furlong race =0, I think it could be done. Wondering if anyone else has tried this theory.

Thanks.

[DBC]

Pubby

Not exactly a bounce, but just like the Beyers, a high PPF earned by a horse loose on the lead vs a slow or moderate pace can often be discounted. Hope this helps.

[First_Place]

Hmmm...I never gave it any thought. Now that you mentioned it, I will.

FP

[Quinncom]

If anyone is interested in acquiring The Master Magician Value Tech Mega Package, e-mail me. I will reply with complete details.

Thanks
Quinncom

[AQUEBUCKS]

look at the million dollar race, uncheck aberancy, and sort by LASST, top two in the exacta over $800, and top three yielded over $6k tripple ($1) bets.....

aquebucks

[kingfin66]

When you do that it doesn't matter if you sort Two Excuse or LASST, you get the same result. The big question is, did people take the aberrancy filter off? I usually prefer to do manual aberrancy checking than let the program do it. As I posted in another thread, this race was a woulda, coulda, shoulda. It's easy to go back through and see what you could have done, but quite another matter to make the call before the race is run.

Your post is a good example of what TMM can do for a handicapper.