OneFast runs second today at 100-1

[lamboguy]

in the 4th at Gulfstream today our man Onefast just missed the score of his life with GAMER GIRL. the horse still paid $42 in the middle.

[JustRalph]

Nice!

[PICSIX]

Saweeeeeet!!:headbanger:

[onefast99]

104.70/1 horse has been training well got fit running on sandy Calder (gpw)surface jock said if she didn’t make a right out of the gate from post 11 she would have lit every bulb on the board!

[DeltaLover]

It is this kind of results that are chasing people out of the game.


This donkey ran against the same horses only 14 days ago finished 20+ lengths behind the :8: at 33-1 and 15+ lengths from the :7: . Two weeks later and with no public workout and no other kind of excuse, the situation was turned upside down costing thousand dollars to the majority of the naive bettors who keep on risking their money in a game that is so fraud friendly.

[onefast99]

It is this kind of results that are chasing people out of the game.


This donkey ran against the same horses only 14 days ago finished 20+ lengths behind the :8: at 33-1 and 15+ lengths from the :7: . Two weeks later and with no public workout and no other kind of excuse, the situation was turned upside down costing thousand dollars to the majority of the naive bettors who keep on risking their money in a game that is so fraud friendly.
Why would there be a workout for my horse? She just ran two weeks ago. Isn't it evident the surface change was a huge factor in her moving up. Also the huge favorite the 10 was 3/5 and won by 5 lengths. Just so you don't continue to think any fraud was in play here I bet zero on my horse and if she didn't finish at least 5th she was going to become my daughters riding horse. These are also bottom level maidens and based on the results longshots seem to be in play at both GPW and GP.

[DeltaLover]

Why would there be a workout for my horse? She just ran two weeks ago. Isn't it evident the surface change was a huge factor in her moving up. Also the huge favorite the 10 was 3/5 and won by 5 lengths. Just so you don't continue to think any fraud was in play here I bet zero on my horse and if she didn't finish at least 5th she was going to become my daughters riding horse. These are also bottom level maidens and based on the results longshots seem to be in play at both GPW and GP.

Nothing personal of course but this kind of transformation, especially within such a limited timespan is certainly suspicious as it generates the loss of huge amounts of betting dollars with the unpredicted outcome. It would had been different if there was some legitimate excuse for the recent bad race or a lengthy enough layoff that would have made it possible for the trainer to reverse the form of the horse; without any of these though, this racing behavior is really bad for the reputation of the sport which for its survival relies on the betting dollar.

[stuball]

I bet you lost ----I bet --get it????

Nothing personal of course but this kind of transformation, especially within such a limited timespan is certainly suspicious as it generates the loss of huge amounts of betting dollars with the unpredicted outcome. It would had been different if there was some legitimate excuse for the recent bad race or a lengthy enough layoff that would have made it possible for the trainer to reverse the form of the horse; without any of these though, this racing behavior is really bad for the reputation of the sport which for its survival relies on the betting dollar.

[cj]

It is this kind of results that are chasing people out of the game.


This donkey ran against the same horses only 14 days ago finished 20+ lengths behind the :8: at 33-1 and 15+ lengths from the :7: . Two weeks later and with no public workout and no other kind of excuse, the situation was turned upside down costing thousand dollars to the majority of the naive bettors who keep on risking their money in a game that is so fraud friendly.

I wasn't betting Sunday, so this isn't some kind of redboard or anything. Good chance I don't bet this horse even if I was. But this kind of result is the reason I play the game, not the kind to drive me away. There were certainly signs the horse was improving.

[vegasone]

Had the exacta. What makes a horse race. My numbers gave him a shot.looked at least as good as some other lower priced horses. Better than his odds. Just because you can’t see it doesn’t mean it was impossible.

[thaskalos]

And I had the superfecta. That horse made all the sense in the world. I would have responded to this thread yesterday...but I was too busy counting my profits. :ThmbUp:

[vegasone]

:ThmbUp:

[jay68802]

Showed improvement at the first, second, and stretch call from her first race to the second and then to the third. Predicting the big improvement for the last part of the race is difficult, but not impossible. Not a horse I would play in a win bet situation, more like a spread situation in a pick-3 or 4 ticket. Now does she come back in a N2L race, or a starter allowance?

[Tom]

One - congrats, man!

:headbanger::jump:

[onefast99]

Nothing personal of course but this kind of transformation, especially within such a limited timespan is certainly suspicious as it generates the loss of huge amounts of betting dollars with the unpredicted outcome. It would had been different if there was some legitimate excuse for the recent bad race or a lengthy enough layoff that would have made it possible for the trainer to reverse the form of the horse; without any of these though, this racing behavior is really bad for the reputation of the sport which for its survival relies on the betting dollar.So you play horses based on your handicapping skills and what I see in your comments is that every race the "predictable" horse should win? Do you post when the 1/5 shot runs off the board and others in the race pay huge numbers to place and show? Again this was the lowest level maiden claimer offered at GP and not the first or last time you will see a 99/1 shot make it into the exacta or trifecta or super or even win.
I had a NY bred who was 89/1 and at that time set off the largest trifecta and exacta ever at Aqueduct. And I didn't bet a dime on her...go look up Contemptuous...

[thaskalos]

A New York-based handicapper whom I had never heard of before published a handicapping book in 2002. He titled the book "BLINKERS OFF"...and I quickly bought it because I thought it would be about the favorite handicapping angle of a close friend of mine. Alas...the book proved to be just an expensive "advertisement" for the author's newly-formed website "Equiform"...which sold a set of speed and pace figures called "The XTRAS". Since the book seemed utterly worthless to anyone who wasn't an Equiform customer...I tossed it aside and never touched it again for another 15 years.

In April of this year...I became a subscriber to the speed and pace figures of Jim Cramer, of HDW fame. The more I read about Jim Cramer's figures...the more they seemed to resemble those figures called "The XTRAS", in that long-forgotten book of 15 years ago. I quickly retrieved that book from the "forgotten pile"...and read it again, with Jim Cramer's HDW figures as an accompaniment. It was an eye-opening experience that will forever influence my handicapping from now on...and I mention this in this thread because horses such as the one featured here will never again be ignored by the handicapper who remembers the wise words of Cary Fotias...the author of the aforementioned book "Blinkers Off". And NO...one needn't be a HDW customer in order to utilize Fotias's handicapping ideas. Cj's speed and pace figures will do just as well, I am sure.

Sadly...Cary Fotias passed away at the young age of 60, in 2013. I owe him a debt of gratitude...and you will too, if you read his handicapping book and heed his advice...as an accompaniment to your speed/pace handicapping.

https://www.amazon.com/Blinkers-off-frontiers-cycle-analysis/dp/0971580308/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1513013865&sr=1-1&keywords=blinkers+off

[AskinHaskin]

It is this kind of results that are chasing people out of the game.


This donkey ran against the same horses only 14 days ago finished 20+ lengths behind the :8: at 33-1 and 15+ lengths from the :7: . Two weeks later and with no public workout and no other kind of excuse, the situation was turned upside down costing thousand dollars to the majority of the naive bettors who keep on risking their money in a game that is so fraud friendly.

Nothing personal of course but this kind of transformation, especially within such a limited timespan is certainly suspicious as it generates the loss of huge amounts of betting dollars with the unpredicted outcome. It would had been different if there was some legitimate excuse for the recent bad race or a lengthy enough layoff that would have made it possible for the trainer to reverse the form of the horse; without any of these though, this racing behavior is really bad for the reputation of the sport which for its survival relies on the betting dollar.



That is clueless thinking.

Forgetting about the fact that every race costs "thousands of dollars to the majority of the naive bettors", the horse in question was a lightly-raced horse with early speed who was trying a different course for the first time after dueling head to head from the inside of a heavy favorite last out.


What is really baffling is your lack of understanding of parimutuel wagering where "the loss of huge amounts of betting dollars with... unpredicted outcome" is a constant, on every race you see.

But in this particular arena, I guess it should come as little surprise that some readers cannot grasp the unique realities of parimutuel wagering.

[Tom]

The reality of racing is that horses like this one do win, and ore placen and more show, and a lot of them fill out supers.

If your model is not picking them, then maybe your model needs to be upgraded.

[DeltaLover]

That is clueless thinking.

Forgetting about the fact that every race costs "thousands of dollars to the majority of the naive bettors", the horse in question was a lightly-raced horse with early speed who was trying a different course for the first time after dueling head to head from the inside of a heavy favorite last out.


What is really baffling is your lack of understanding of parimutuel wagering where "the loss of huge amounts of betting dollars with... unpredicted outcome" is a constant, on every race you see.

But in this particular arena, I guess it should come as little surprise that some readers cannot grasp the unique realities of parimutuel wagering.

I am sure you understand it better :lol::lol::bang::bang:

[DeltaLover]

The reality of racing is that horses like this one do win, and ore placen and more show, and a lot of them fill out supers.

If your model is not picking them, then maybe your model needs to be upgraded.

You mean that yours (or anybody else's) "upgraded model" can pick this type of horses? Do you have any concrete evidence or we simply have to believe so?

[AltonKelsey]

A horse that would go off at 30-1 in NY can go off 100-1 in Fla. Just the way it is.

Looked at the pp's.

Angles older than Ray Taulbots mother.

[Exotic1]

A New York-based handicapper whom I had never heard of before published a handicapping book in 2002. He titled the book "BLINKERS OFF"...and I quickly bought it because I thought it would be about the favorite handicapping angle of a close friend of mine. Alas...the book proved to be just an expensive "advertisement" for the author's newly-formed website "Equiform"...which sold a set of speed and pace figures called "The XTRAS". Since the book seemed utterly worthless to anyone who wasn't an Equiform customer...I tossed it aside and never touched it again for another 15 years.

In April of this year...I became a subscriber to the speed and pace figures of Jim Cramer, of HDW fame. The more I read about Jim Cramer's figures...the more they seemed to resemble those figures called "The XTRAS", in that long-forgotten book of 15 years ago. I quickly retrieved that book from the "forgotten pile"...and read it again, with Jim Cramer's HDW figures as an accompaniment. It was an eye-opening experience that will forever influence my handicapping from now on...and I mention this in this thread because horses such as the one featured here will never again be ignored by the handicapper who remembers the wise words of Cary Fotias...the author of the aforementioned book "Blinkers Off". And NO...one needn't be a HDW customer in order to utilize Fotias's handicapping ideas. Cj's speed and pace figures will do just as well, I am sure.

Sadly...Cary Fotias passed away at the young age of 60, in 2013. I owe him a debt of gratitude...and you will too, if you read his handicapping book and heed his advice...as an accompaniment to your speed/pace handicapping.

https://www.amazon.com/Blinkers-off-frontiers-cycle-analysis/dp/0971580308/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1513013865&sr=1-1&keywords=blinkers+off

It's coming into focus now. And yours (above) is an excellent post.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1033406&postcount=33


http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1033437&postcount=49

[Exotic1]

I knew there was more..

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1033690&postcount=101

GameTheory had it right all along....

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1033712&postcount=102

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1033719&postcount=103

[onefast99]

One - congrats, man!

:headbanger::jump:
Thank you sir. 3 weeks and she gets another crack.

[Tom]

You mean that yours (or anybody else's) "upgraded model" can pick this type of horses? Do you have any concrete evidence or we simply have to believe so?


Well, in this thread, posts # 9,10,11,13 for starters.
Looking at HTR for this race, horse was listed as third in the positives for improvement, it was ranked #1 on FR1 and EP after showing greatly improved early speed and posting new pace top (Blinker Off) last out.
In only its fourth career start, the second of which had trouble, the horse was going int he right direction. On their tournament program, which suggest good bets for tourney play, it was picked as a pace play for that race.

And it placed to the big favorite.
Isn't that what you want to put in the place hole to make this a playable race?

[Tom]

Thank you sir. 3 weeks and she gets another crack.

Shhhhhhhhh! ;)

[JustRalph]

I wasn't betting Sunday, so this isn't some kind of redboard or anything. Good chance I don't bet this horse even if I was. But this kind of result is the reason I play the game, not the kind to drive me away. There were certainly signs the horse was improving.

I would surmise that is a product of the way the game has evolved. I bet 15 years ago you might have passed he race

I only play a 3-5 times a year now, but I find myself doing nothing anymore but looking for huge prices. Where I used to be happy with a nice 5 to 1 or so, a couple times a day, not anymore. If I’m playing I’m winging it now. It’s the only way to have any real fun

[lamboguy]

there are a few good ways to find prices in this game. one of them that i have found is handicapping a race and finding 3 or 4 contenders in the race that i can't separate too much by methods of handicapping. most of the time i would just pass the race and go on to the next race. but after all these years i have figured out that these are the best races to play. i just bet the horse that has the longest price at bigger tracks. i have kept track of those plays and it brings me back $.96 before the rebate. it is actually not too bad. the only problem is i have been betting those selections for only $10 or $20 per race and don't know how i would do if i was playing $100 or $200 per race. that is the part that makes this game tough now. if you are going to the mutual windows and betting enough to lower your price, you will automatically lose.

[CincyHorseplayer]

A New York-based handicapper whom I had never heard of before published a handicapping book in 2002. He titled the book "BLINKERS OFF"...and I quickly bought it because I thought it would be about the favorite handicapping angle of a close friend of mine. Alas...the book proved to be just an expensive "advertisement" for the author's newly-formed website "Equiform"...which sold a set of speed and pace figures called "The XTRAS". Since the book seemed utterly worthless to anyone who wasn't an Equiform customer...I tossed it aside and never touched it again for another 15 years.

In April of this year...I became a subscriber to the speed and pace figures of Jim Cramer, of HDW fame. The more I read about Jim Cramer's figures...the more they seemed to resemble those figures called "The XTRAS", in that long-forgotten book of 15 years ago. I quickly retrieved that book from the "forgotten pile"...and read it again, with Jim Cramer's HDW figures as an accompaniment. It was an eye-opening experience that will forever influence my handicapping from now on...and I mention this in this thread because horses such as the one featured here will never again be ignored by the handicapper who remembers the wise words of Cary Fotias...the author of the aforementioned book "Blinkers Off". And NO...one needn't be a HDW customer in order to utilize Fotias's handicapping ideas. Cj's speed and pace figures will do just as well, I am sure.

Sadly...Cary Fotias passed away at the young age of 60, in 2013. I owe him a debt of gratitude...and you will too, if you read his handicapping book and heed his advice...as an accompaniment to your speed/pace handicapping.

https://www.amazon.com/Blinkers-off-frontiers-cycle-analysis/dp/0971580308/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1513013865&sr=1-1&keywords=blinkers+off

I made these same connections in 2012. Along with a healthy influence of Sartin and Co but with my own thoughts on ratings and a dose of Pizzola, things have been a completely better reality since. We think in similar circles my friend!

[onefast99]

For those that asked about proper princess in the 2nd today at GP another nice second at 10/1...she is one game little lady.

[VigorsTheGrey]

For those that asked about proper princess in the 2nd today at GP another nice second at 10/1...she is one game little lady.

One fast, where did you post your selection of Gamer Girl prior to the original poster...? I looked but couldn't find where...?

[TiffaniO]

One fast, where did you post your selection of Gamer Girl prior to the original poster...? I looked but couldn't find where...?

I don’t think this was a selection since he said he didn’t bet... this was his horse from what I have gathered

[VigorsTheGrey]

I don’t think this was a selection since he said he didn’t bet... this was his horse from what I have gathered

OK I get it...he owns the horse and the OP knew about that....:) thanks.

[onefast99]

I don’t believe I have ever posted on the forum that I like my horse in a race. As I mentioned gamer was going to be a pony for my daughter if she didn’t show me signs of being a race horse. In regards to yesterday’s race two forum members reached out to me and asked if I had a chance all you had to do was look at proper princess record at GP and she had a good chance. I also do not bet on my horses.

[Tom]

Maybe you should! ;)

[castaway01]

I don’t believe I have ever posted on the forum that I like my horse in a race. As I mentioned gamer was going to be a pony for my daughter if she didn’t show me signs of being a race horse. In regards to yesterday’s race two forum members reached out to me and asked if I had a chance all you had to do was look at proper princess record at GP and she had a good chance. I also do not bet on my horses.

Just give us the 100-1 and up live ones and we'll be fine :headbanger:

Seriously though, congratulations on your success. Hope you get the winner's share next time.

[onefast99]

Maybe you should! ;)I like getting the purse monies!!! Finishing second pays the bills, I do have one going Monday but as I tell everyone they all have a chance but don't beat me up when they don't win...

[jay68802]

Another second, :pout: If it helps, I was trying to encourage her from my desk. Good luck next time.

[onefast99]

Another second, :pout: If it helps, I was trying to encourage her from my desk. Good luck next time.lost all chance with Proper Princess in the first today as the jock got shuffled back when squeezed by the 4 and the 2. Gamer Girl had the race won today but the loose horse caused the jock to get a bit cautious and the big favorite(dropping in from a 50k claimer)passed us. I think the odds were a bit less than 105/1 somewhere in the 7/2 range. She is one big lady who should eventually win this maiden event. For those who look at key races the winner of the last race Gamer was in went on to an easy score in a nw2l with a 70 Beyer last week....

[oughtoh]

She ran a good race today. Thought she had it turning for home. At least you got a paycheck.

[jay68802]

That loose horse seemed to distract both the rider and her. I think you are right shes at the right level and should win sometime. Good luck with her. I will keep an eye out for her and cheer.

[onefast99]

That loose horse seemed to distract both the rider and her. I think you are right shes at the right level and should win sometime. Good luck with her. I will keep an eye out for her and cheer.
Since she is a work in progress 3 to 4 weeks for her next race will try 5 1/2f as well. Jockey came back and said the 3 horse was a major distraction.

[appistappis]

A New York-based handicapper whom I had never heard of before published a handicapping book in 2002. He titled the book "BLINKERS OFF"...and I quickly bought it because I thought it would be about the favorite handicapping angle of a close friend of mine. Alas...the book proved to be just an expensive "advertisement" for the author's newly-formed website "Equiform"...which sold a set of speed and pace figures called "The XTRAS". Since the book seemed utterly worthless to anyone who wasn't an Equiform customer...I tossed it aside and never touched it again for another 15 years.

In April of this year...I became a subscriber to the speed and pace figures of Jim Cramer, of HDW fame. The more I read about Jim Cramer's figures...the more they seemed to resemble those figures called "The XTRAS", in that long-forgotten book of 15 years ago. I quickly retrieved that book from the "forgotten pile"...and read it again, with Jim Cramer's HDW figures as an accompaniment. It was an eye-opening experience that will forever influence my handicapping from now on...and I mention this in this thread because horses such as the one featured here will never again be ignored by the handicapper who remembers the wise words of Cary Fotias...the author of the aforementioned book "Blinkers Off". And NO...one needn't be a HDW customer in order to utilize Fotias's handicapping ideas. Cj's speed and pace figures will do just as well, I am sure.

Sadly...Cary Fotias passed away at the young age of 60, in 2013. I owe him a debt of gratitude...and you will too, if you read his handicapping book and heed his advice...as an accompaniment to your speed/pace handicapping.

https://www.amazon.com/Blinkers-off-frontiers-cycle-analysis/dp/0971580308/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1513013865&sr=1-1&keywords=blinkers+off

fotias work has carried on with the new name of predicteform.....you can read the book online if you register at the site.

[Grits]

So you play horses based on your handicapping skills and what I see in your comments is that every race the "predictable" horse should win? Do you post when the 1/5 shot runs off the board and others in the race pay huge numbers to place and show? Again this was the lowest level maiden claimer offered at GP and not the first or last time you will see a 99/1 shot make it into the exacta or trifecta or super or even win.
I had a NY bred who was 89/1 and at that time set off the largest trifecta and exacta ever at Aqueduct. And I didn't bet a dime on her...go look up Contemptuous...

Fast, I'm glad your girl ran second at HUGE. He's not contemptuous. The real truth is he's just whining because he didn't have her!! :lol:

[jay68802]

:popcorn:

[jay68802]

:jump::jump::jump::jump:

Maiden no more!

[onefast99]

Thank you everyone she ran a nice race time for the nw2l !!!