PDA

View Full Version : A STUDY OF WHEN TO BET THE FAVORITE OR OTHER HORSES


formula_2002
12-05-2017, 01:59 PM
12-5-2017
WITH THE RACE COUNT STARTING TO GET UP THERE, I’LL GIVE THE FOLLOWING REPORT.
UNDER FAVORABLE CODITIONS, A BET IS MADE ON MY FAVORITE
WHEN MY FAVORITE IS NOT CONSIDERED A GOOD BET, A BET IS MADE ON MY 3RD CHOICE AND UP.
THESE FAVORITES ARE GENERALLY ODDS ON

OVERALL RESULTS
151 RACE, 46 % WINNERS AND A $1 RETURN OF $1.02

FAVORITES (MY PLAY #1)
51 RACES, 74% WINNERS AND A $1 RETURN OF $1.11
.

3RD CHOICE AND UP
54 RACES, 48 % WINNERS, AND A $1 RETURN OF $1.13

THERE IS A GROUP OF HORSES FOR WHICH THERE IS NO PLAY.
56 RACES, 29% WINS, AND A $1 RETURN OF $0.67

MANY OF THESE PLAYS ARE POSTED IN THE “SELECTION” FORUM AT APPOXIMATELY 1 TO 2 MINUETS TO POST TIME.

I’M STARTINGTO REVIEW ANOTHER BET.
I’VE TAGGED THIS BET “3R”
NO REPORT AVAILABLE YET

JUST ABOUT ALL PLAYS ARE U.S.A. FLATS
SOME ARE TROTTERS AND NON U.S.A.

formula_2002
12-06-2017, 11:01 AM
12-06-2017

THERE ARE SEVERAL LINKS THAT NEED TO BE CONNECTED BEFORE THE CHAIN IS COMPLETE, ALLOWING FOR A PLAY

ONE IS THE FACTOR, GENERATED BY AN ANALYSIS OF THE WIN, PLACE, SHOW AND EXACTA POOLS.

THE OTHER IS THE FAVORITE ODDS
ALL ODDS DETERMINATIONS ARE BASED ON TOTE BOARD WIN ODDS AT 2 MIN TO POST OR LESS, AND PRIOR TO THE HORSES FULLY LOADED INTO THE GATE
I USE THE TWINSPIRES TOTE BOARD .

OVER A SHORT NUMBER OF RACES, ABOUT 150, SHORT ODDS FAVORITES, GENERALLY ODDS ON, ARE A PLAY WHEN THE FACTOR IS >=500. THIS IS PLAY NUMBER 1THE BEST BET SIZE FOR THIS PLAY IS A FLAT BET. FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES, THIS FLAT BET SIZE IS SET AT $1000.

WHEN THE FACTOR FOR THE FAVORITE IS >=400 AND <500, A BET IS FAVORABLE ON ALL HORSES RANK 3RD AND UP. THIS IS PLAY NUMBER 2THE BET SIZE FOR THIS PLAY IS BASED ON THE TOTE BOARD WIN POOL ODDS.

WHEN THE FACTOR IS >0 AND <500, AND FAVORITE PLUS 2ND CHOICE WIN PROBABILITY IS >=50%, AS DETERMINE BY THE WIN POOL ODDS, A BET IS FAVORABLE ON ALL HORSES RANK 3RD AND UP ODDS RANKED HORSES. THIS IS PLAY NUMBER 3R

WHEN THE BET SIZE TOTAL FOR PLAY 2 OR 3R IS LESS THAN 400 THE FAVORITE IS A PLAY
THIS IS PLAY NUMBER 4
THE BEST BET SIZE FOR THIS PLAY IS A FLAT BET. FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES, THIS FLAT BET SIZE IS SET AT $1000.