Psychology of winning at the track

[anotherdave]

With respect to my posting on the other board on betting and psychology. Can anyone give me the names of any books (or chapters of books) that have a good section on them about the psychology of winning at the track. Tips on how to keep focussed and not get frustrated at bad losses, etc. Just keeping an even keel through the ups and downs we experience. (i.e. not blowing your cool (and bankroll) when the inevitable losing streak begins!)

One book that I have found has some good thoughts on some of this is Handicapping Logic by Glendon Jones. Some books touch on the subject a bit, but I was wondering if anyone had any other suggestions.

Maybe (as socalfan says) I should write a book on it myself.

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[sq764]

I don't think you need a book for this.. I used to be one of those people that yelled and screamed at every loss.. A couple things changed me.. (Besides my fiancee telling me she was so emabarrassed)

1) Leave the Mac/Credit cards home, only take the cash you want to 'blow'...

2) When I am having a disastrous night, I think to myself that a bad night at the track is better than sitting at home..

3) When a race is over, its over, turn the page and start fresh.

4) When I lose its not because the jockeys conspired just to not let my horse win, its most likely because I didn't wager on the best horse at the best odds.

5) When you love a horse and don't bet him, and you watch him roll at 15-1, just chalk it up to a stupid bet.

6) When you pick the right horse at the right odds and he gets stuck on the rail or cooked in a speed duel, write him down, he'll win soon enough..

Just a couple of tips that helped me out (and lowered my blood pressure)

Scott

[Jeff P]

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There is a book on the game of 21 by the late Ken Uston titled 'Million Dollar Blackjack' that deals quite a bit with the psychology of discipline and dealing with losing streaks. I don't play 21 any more but I found the book to be an enjoyable read and much of what the author talks about in this area can be applied to playing horses.

[Rick]

anotherdave,

There is a 6 page document called "Winning - A State of Mind" by Dr. Nord Jamison that is mentioned by David Powers in a chapter on the same subject in his book "Power Handicapping". It used to be available from RPM just for the cost of postage.

One of the pros I knew had records of thousands of plays for all of his methods and reviewed them when he was in a losing streak to look for similar cases in the past that he had recovered from. It's a good confidence builder.

The biggest problem most people have is believing how long losing streaks can really be. I don't like using summary data (win % and ROI) alone because they tend to make things appear to be more stable than they really are.

I learned a lot about this subject when I was playing blackjack years ago. It's possible to lose for months and wind up at the end of the year with a profit. You know you have an edge but it gets really frustrating and hard to keep on playing when you're unlucky. I've heard poker players say that it's even worse for them.

My general approach is to commit a bankroll that I can afford to lose and not worry about it unless I lose the entire bankroll. Day to day fluctuations are not very significant. I wouldn't draw any conclusions about profitability until I have at least 200 races and would prefer to see at least 500. That would usually take at least 3 months for me to accumulate. Treating horse racing like you would a stock paying dividends is a good way to look at it. If you're profitable, make a distribution on a quarterly basis.

[PaceAdvantage]

There's a great book out there, but it's written about trading in the stock market, not racing....however, I think many of the ideas would be applicable.

The book is called "Trading In The Zone" by Mark Douglas...

It deals almost exclusively with the psychological aspects of trading and what it takes (psychologically) to become successful....Having had some experience in both (races and trading), I would say the book is worth the read, even if you're not in the market...



==PA

[kitts]

The best book I have ever read on the psychology thing is Winning Thoroughbred Strategies by Dick Mitchell. It is probably more motivational than psychological but it di me a whole world of good.

Kitts

[JimG]

I agree that the Jamison pamphlet is excellent on this subject.


Jim

[Dick Schmidt]

PA,

I just got "Trading in the Zone" this afternoon and I am impressed. Looks to be an excellent book that zeros in on the biggest weakness of horseplayers. Change the word "trade" to "bet", and it is some of the best horseracing advice available. It explains why some people can win with almost anything, yet others go from program to program seeking success. The answer lies in self mastery, not in more or different information. Only when we can make a bet without fear of losing can we truly win.

I've only read about 100 pages, but I can already see changes in my approach to betting. Thank you for recommending it. For anyone out there who has watched others win with a program or method that you can't make work, read this book. Learning to win, as opposed to learning to handicap, is the most valuable lesson in racing.

Dick

[anotherdave]

PA, Thanks for the recommendation and Dick, thanks for the review. I ordered it from Amazon on Monday. I will be especially lokking forward to it now!

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[tedwin]

In case anyone is interested there is a series of audio tapes from a seminar Mark Douglas presented. The person who listed it talks about Douglas teaching people to accept probabilities without fear. From the way he wrote it up I suspect he has a rather high reserve on the item of at least several hundred dollars. But if anyone is interested you may want to check it out tonight. (Friday). The auction is scheduled to end Saturday m orning.

I, too, ordered the Trading in the Zone book and am looking forward to studying it. Just thinking about what little I have read online about his teachings is already helping my thinking. Thanks to PA for suggesting it and to Dick Schmidt for his observations about it.

[Dick Schmidt]

To One and All,

I recently learned about a wonderful book from PA in this thread. It is called “Trading in the Zone” by Mark Douglas. Ostensibly about trading stocks and bonds, it is really about learning to take risks. Douglas states that the reaction of the average trader when things go bad is to gather more information and develop new ways to analyze it. He contends that this is absolutely wrong. Nothing wrong with good information, of course, but it is how we use it and handle ourselves that is the difference between winning and losing. Substitute the word “betting” for “trading,” “racing” for “market,” and “handicapping” for “market analysis” and you have a wonderful, insightful racing book. He says things like (with some additions):



"This means that or how much you learn about the market’s (racing’s) behavior, no matter how brilliant an analyst (handicapper) you become, you will never learn enough to anticipate every possible way that the market (racing) can make you wrong or cause you to lose money. So it you are afraid of being wrong or losing money, it means that you will never learn enough to compensate for the negative effects these fears will have on your ability to be objective and your ability to ace without hesitation. In other words, you won’t be confident in the face of constant uncertainty. The hard, cold reality of trading (handicapping) is that every trade (bet) has an uncertain outcome. Unless you learn to completely accept the possibility of an uncertain outcome, you will try either consciously or unconsciously to avoid any possibility you define as painful. In the process, you will subject yourself to any number of self-generated, costly errors.

Now, I am not suggesting that we don’t need some form of market analysis (handicapping) or methodology to define opportunities and allow us to recognize them; we certainly do. However, market analysis (handicapping) is not the path to consistent results. It will not solve the trading (betting) problems created by lack of confidence, lack of discipline, or improper focus.

When you operate from the assumption that more or better analysis will create consistency, you will be driven to gather as many market variables (past performance data) as possible into your arsenal of trading (handicapping) tools. But what happens then? You are still disappointed and betrayed by the markets, time and again; because of something you didn’t see or give enough consideration to. It will feel like you can’t trust the markets (racing), but the reality is you can’t trust yourself.

Confidence and fear are contradictory states of mind that both stem from our beliefs and attitudes. To be confident, functioning in an environment where you can easily lose more than you intend to risk, requires absolute trust in yourself. However, you won’t be able to achieve that trust until you have trained your mind to override your natural inclination to think in ways that are counterproductive to being a consistently successful trader (bettor). Learning how to analyze the market’s (horseracing’s) behavior is simply not the appropriate training.

You have two choices: You can try to eliminate risk by learning about as many market (racing) variables as possible. I call this the black hole of analysis, because it is the path of ultimate frustration. Or you can learn how to redefine your trading (betting) activities in such a way that you truly accept the risk, and you’re no longer afraid."



Obviously I made the additions in parenthesis, but you get the idea. Building the ultimate database, learning every fact, finding the perfect program, learning how every fact in every Racing Form ever printed relates to every other fact isn’t the answer. Learning to win is. This book will help. It can be painful, but I think it is well worth the effort. I found the book on Amazon, and I would think most big bookstores would have it.

Dick

[andicap]

25 years of betting experience (starting as a teen-ager at Yonkers Raceway) confirms just about everything said here, especially Dick's comments.
How often have we all failed to really pull the trigger on a 20-1 shot we like, yet double down on a 3-1 shot? It's the fear of risk, lack of confidence in ourselves. I consider it a fear of failure.
A geopolitical comparison (not to get overly political here) is the U.S. and Vietnam. Because of that debacle, the country has often retreated overly into isolationism, the current state of affairs not withstanding. (It was the moral equivalent of Pearl Harbor.) A fear of risk? Of losing again? How great is our will to continue now with American casualties. (i.e., like losing money. Not to make it sound cavalier, but a general sees casualities the way we see losing bets, a reality of the "action.")
My point isn't to start a political debate here (believe me I know I'm outmanned on this board), but to state that so many of the psychological hurdles we face daily at the racetrack are apart of other aspects of our lives. It takes extraordinary people to overcome them in "real life," -- why Lincoln was so great: Other presidents would have backed down in the face of Civil War -- and the same applies to the racetrack.
I have developed a method recently that I truly believe if correctly, intelligently and fearlessly applied, will win money. It has tabbed -- with the correct analysis -- many longshots as legitimate solid contenders. I have not yet bought that fancy home theater system I have my eye on. I have long been able to pick 'em, but not bet them. I am certain Douglas' book explains why.

I bought All-in-One 11 years ago and in my third "pick," hit a $28 horse who was 3-1 on the program's line. But I never had the confidence in the software to succeed and soon junked it. It had nothing to do with the software -- it was myself.
In the back of my mind there has always lurked the strong feeling that you can't beat the horses, that how can you predict a bunch of animals with brains the size of walnuts. That in some sense there is a randomness to it all that says predicting their behavior is batty.
That fear has led to me taking months off from the game, and it sends people from software to software looking for something that is "dead solid," that eliminates the risk. That, of course, is impossible.
The general public believes that you can't win at this game. It's fixed, etc. That's why they will never win. (Well, a lot of people just can't handicap, but you get my point.)

Sorry for rambling on, but this is an underappreciated topic that explains why so many of us don't win -- or if we are ahead, aren't maximizing our profits.











:confused:

[anotherdave]

As I said I can't wait for the book to arrive. It should be a great read. And from the little that Dick shared with us, it sounds like a great read. Andicap, your experiences sound very similar to mine. Where's the great software or perfect method. A few years ago, even though I was usually a break even (really!) handicapper, I did start to realize that I hadn't really given anything a chance. So I found a simple piece of software that does pretty well what I want (maybe not for everyone). But mostly it decreases the work - does a lot of calculations for me. It even sets not a bad odds line. But that is where it ends. Then I make the final decisions. Between my analysis and the software's analysis, I scrap my noncontenders and make adjustments to the software's line based on my pereceptions of the race.

The last 2 years I have made money, not truck loads (last year my ROI was about 5%), but even though I have made 5% in some years a long time ago, this is completely different. I have confidence in what I am doing. I KNOW this works and can work better. But I am not yet confident enough that I know how to take that next step and get my ROI up to 15 or 20%. I feel that I do not need to change my handicapping. I've figured that out. That I am confident about. It is those last minute decisions, wavering between two horses, dealing with a string of tough losses, bad rides, etc. That's what I need to deal with.

So this book might help. I know I have the tools. I feel I have the correct information and correct analysis. I now need to learn how to have the confidence and attitude get to the next level.

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[Rick]

I've always thought that my biggest mistakes may have involved giving up on some methods based on solid concepts that were disappointing over short periods of time. I suspect that a lot of others have done the same thing. So don't forget to recheck some of your old ideas in case you might have tossed out something good. My idea of handicapper's hell would be to have found a great method an not realized it due to bad luck.

We tend to spend a lot of time looking for refinements that won't usually make a great deal of difference in the bottom line. There really is a limit on how well you can make predictions and I think it is pretty well documented. Looking at some of the large scale statistical studies really helped me in this area, not as much by pointing out new factors as by giving me a feel for reasonable limits on what is possible in handicapping.

If you incorporate too many correlated factors in your handicapping you will actually hurt your ROI rather than help it. That's what usually happens with favorites; they have too many positive attributes that are not independent of one another. It's quite common for a handicapper to have a better ROI on his second choices than on his first choices. Second choice on the morning line will usually have a better ROI than first choice, for example. The last changes I made to my method involved simplifying it in order to minimize that kind of problem. It's more productive now for me to work on the best ways to bet the method than to keep tweaking it. I wouldn't be surprized to find that a lot of you are at the same stage.

[superfecta]

A good book is the original "Pace Makes the Race" By Sartin and Schmidt(don't be afaid to pat yourself on the back,Dick)
Most of the winning methods is psycology and money management.If you can physically make the bet with sound reasoning,any method of handicapping can become profitable.
That is up to each of us to decide what we can tolerate.Long losing streaks is the test we all must pass,if we want to suceed at the track.Near misses are the worst,not betting enough,and betting too much when we need a winner.Information is nice but too much can get in the way.Unfortunately,no one can tell you how to bet,you must learn by experience.Same way you get to Carnigie Hall, man-practice,practice, practice....

[Rick]

superfecta,

My approach to overcoming the fear factor when trying something new is to always start out betting the minimum amount and set aside a reasonable amount for a separate bankroll. If the method loses the bankroll, it's back to the drawing board and I haven't been hurt much.

If it wins, I'm betting with "money won" rather than "money earned" and am capable of betting larger amounts without fear. If I were to start with larger amounts, I might stop betting during the first losing streak due to lack of confidence.

As we all know, the next thing that happens is you have a fantastic winning streak "on paper" which leads to the "woulda couda shoulda" syndrome and further erodes your confidence.

It's been shown in a number of experiments that people underestimate the streakiness of a random sequence of events, so it's not surprising that things "don't feel right" sometimes even when there is really nothing unusual going on.

[GR1@HTR]

Winning is an attitude, a desire to never be satisfied and always look to "sharpen the sword"...The following is from something I read today:

A Positive Thinker Is....
By Dr. Norman Vincent Peale

"It requires strength of character to make the transition to a positive thinker. It isn't easy. When a person is born, he or she is a
positive thinker. I've never seen a negative baby. But a baby may be born into a home where perhaps one of the parents is a
negative thinker. He may listen to negative teachers, or may be surrounded by negative friends.

If that person desires to be a positive thinker, he faces a complete reversal of mental attitude. That person will have to gradually
reorganize his mind and develop new tracks across the brain. This may take some time. Some people think they can read a book and
all of a sudden become positive thinkers.

"I am the sovereign judge of any thought that goes through my mind. If a negative thought comes to your mind, you sit as judge with
sovereign power over that thought, and you can let it stay there and grow or you can cast it out.

"A positive thinker is a rugged soul who sees every difficulty. But he is not defeated by them because he knows that he has within his
own mind the ability to understand, to define, to make judgments, and to arrive at right decisions."

[wes]

What ever happened to L D Hurley who had The winning Formula and Winning Patterns books on the market back in the mid 1980's.


wes

[rrbauer]

A couple thoughts here.

First, the uncomfortable feeling. I think that anytime that you make a really good bet that there is a level of discomfort. Why?
Well, you're probably not playing the fav. You're probably pursuing an angle that has you alone, perhaps a contrarian thing. Because of those things you're probably getting a price. All of this leads you to recognize that you're somewhere different and someone different. And, until the race is run, you won't get validation for your decision and that heightens your anxiety.

Second, dealing with winning. It has turned out for me that the tonic for both a very good day at the track; and, a very bad day at the track is the same: Take a day off! Reason is that after a really good day your euphoria can carry you into overbetting, carelessness and poor play. After a very bad day you start pressing, probably become gunshy and start zigging when you should've zagged. If taking a day off isn't in your arsenal of tricks, then limit your action to the best $20 bet that you can find.

The major problem for most horseplayers is looking at them every morning in the mirror!

[anotherdave]

I agree that the big winning and big losing days can be troublesome for future wagering. I have just started reading the book PA recommended "Trading in the Zone". There is some good stuff in there so far. He says something to the effect that a good trader (horseplayer) accepts losses as part of the cost of doing business - just like the cost of food for someone who owns a restaurant. That's the kind of attitude I am trying to develop. I know that I am going to lose some of the time and must accept it when it happens. Hopefully the book will help me get to that state.

Taking the day off for me would be worse - I'd be watching horses I like win sometimes and that would really screw up my psyche. And if I have the discipline to take the day off, shouldn't I have the discipline to take winning and losing days in stride and just do what I am here to do without taking a day off?

My 2 cents (and that is 1.2 cents in the U.S.)

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[rrbauer]

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The day off gives you a battery charge. I suppose if you're a pure method-type player with few non-numeric nuances as handicapping factors then hanging in there and being numb, win or lose, is achievable. For me that's not the case.

I know the guy in the mirror is a problem and I deal with it best I can!

:)

[JustRalph]

I put $50 across on a 24-1 shot that I had been tracking the trainer and horse (after Equisim turned me onto the horse) and he won going away. The $2000 return was the most I had ever won in a race. I didn't cash another ticket for 47 straight races. I did get a little weird at around the 35 straight loss mark. I have some guys who work for me who kind of follow my playing and we started really laughing about it around the 40 mark. I lost every way possible. Horses fell down. They broke down. Dwelled in the gate. One never came out of the gate. Objection, Inquiry and in one race my horse is 12 lengths out front in a Maiden event when he vans off and runs out an open gate into the parking lot. I stuck to my guns, brushed up on my methods (picked up a couple of books from the shelf and re-read some chapters) and on #47 hit a nice $22 horse and never looked back. Now I try not to take a losing streak serious. I have yet to go a card without cashing at least one ticket since. I realized the value of my mental attitude during the losing streak. This is one area of the game that I think needs more study.