S&P top?

[Tape Reader]

I’ll start. I say we are at a top or at least a short term correction.

[barahona44]

S & P off 0.2 % today blamed on Flynn's guilty plea.:confused: I'd hate to see what will happens if a few big companies miss their earnings forecasts.

I agree with you.A lame excuse like that to explain an off-day might be a bad sign.

[sour grapes]

S & P off 0.2 % today blamed on Flynn's guilty plea.:confused: I'd hate to see what will happens if a few big companies miss their earnings forecasts.

I agree with you.A lame excuse like that to explain an off-day might be a bad sign.

a lot have people have lost their shirts calling for a top from 15k.

[_______]

Bond yields are not signaling a recession. I understand the urge to find a reason to hate a market that has gone up for 8 years but I think you’ll see better earnings and possibly even some more p/e expansion over the next 4 quarters.

I’m not a trader but you might see a short term drop when tax reform is signed (selling the news). But otherwise I’ll wait for an inverted yield curve before I get worried. It could come next year if the Fed keeps raising short term rates. But historically the market has run up for quite a while even after the curve inverts.

[lamboguy]

Bond yields are not signaling a recession. I understand the urge to find a reason to hate a market that has gone up for 8 years but I think you’ll see better earnings and possibly even some more p/e expansion over the next 4 quarters.

I’m not a trader but you might see a short term drop when tax reform is signed (selling the news). But otherwise I’ll wait for an inverted yield curve before I get worried. It could come next year if the Fed keeps raising short term rates. But historically the market has run up for quite a while even after the curve inverts.the yield curve has been flattening, the 30 year is only 40 basis points more than the 10 year now. in the past that has signaled a recession is on the horizon. today i don't know what it means, because there is no such thing as conventional wisdom in the markets now.

[_______]

Bond yields are not signaling a recession. I understand the urge to find a reason to hate a market that has gone up for 8 years but I think you’ll see better earnings and possibly even some more p/e expansion over the next 4 quarters.

I’m not a trader but you might see a short term drop when tax reform is signed (selling the news). But otherwise I’ll wait for an inverted yield curve before I get worried. It could come next year if the Fed keeps raising short term rates. But historically the market has run up for quite a while even after the curve inverts.

On the other hand, E-Trade’s current “Don’t get mad, get even” ads do remind me a little bit too much of their 2000 campaign:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oftjwYmlfoA

Maybe Tape Reader has a point.

[_______]

the yield curve has been flattening, the 30 year is only 40 basis points more than the 10 year now. in the past that has signaled a recession is on the horizon. today i don't know what it means, because there is no such thing as conventional wisdom in the markets now.

Hi Lambo.

The traditional yield curve has the 3 month, 6 month, 2 year, and 30 year as data points. The difference between the 10 year and the 30 is probably as important as the difference between the 3 month and 6 month. What you want to look at is when an actual short term rate exceeds the yield on an actual long term rate. You don’t want to compare one long term rate with one even longer term rate.

A flattening yield curve doesn’t always signal a recession. Half the time it signals you are coming out of a recession (when it’s flattening out from being inverted).

But thanks for sharing. Always enjoy your input.

[Tape Reader]

I’ll start. I say we are at a top or at least a short term correction.

I will bump this thread. What say you?

[reckless]

I will bump this thread. What say you?

I think we concluding this correction, which began on Monday(?), Tuesday(?) of this week.

Today's down market is the blow-off. You could start buying now.

But what do I know?

[PaceAdvantage]

If 1/22 was a real top, there really should have been a lot more volume...it was an average volume day at best...tough to believe that was the top that indicated a massive correction is coming.

[reckless]

FWIW, since no one really cares ...

I bought some Apple, Discovery Communications, Viacom, Sinclair Broadcasting, Tegna, and General Electric late this afternoon.

We'll know by Wednesday afternoon if this was a good idea ... :lol:

[lamboguy]

the precious metals are going for the program as well today.

[Saratoga_Mike]

If 1/22 was a real top, there really should have been a lot more volume...it was an average volume day at best...tough to believe that was the top that indicated a massive correction is coming.

I thought this was an interesting post, so I went back to market peaks from two past cycles (mid to late March 2000 and early October 2007). Volume did not spike at those junctures. I'm using S&P 500 volume in both instances. Perhaps Nasdaq volume spiked in March 2000. I'll need to check that.

If the long bond moves from roughly 2.8% (currently) to 4%, I'm not sure how that's equity friendly. MV=PQ. The Fed and other central banks have ramped "M" significantly over the past 10 years, and that ramp resulted in almost no inflationary pressures. Why? V (i.e., animal spirits [confidence] were absent). What if V now returns and starts to translate into a higher P (price/inflation). Year-over-year wage growth was 2.9% last month, the highest since 2009. Nominal GDP is arguably running at 5% to 6%. Given those two data points, a 4% long bond doesn't seem crazy to me.

[Ocala Mike]

Big bounce Monday?

[PaceAdvantage]

The market can go down some more and I still won't be blinking an eye...it hasn't even touched the halfway mark of the run-up that started in November of 2016. The S&P has to drop another 160+ points for that to happen...and that would erase only half of what's happened in the last year plus...

So again, this current drop is pretty much nothing...and on zero extra volume to boot...

[jocko699]

I fear tomorrow will be another big downward slide:pout::pout::pout:

[PaceAdvantage]

I haven't had a trade in a week...how does my automated trading strategy seem to miss the juiciest moves? I know the answer to this question...and I'm not complaining since it's been profitable for years now...but I'd love to catch just one of these moves the last few trading days...:lol:

The answer is...for the curious...opening gaps tend to negate any chance of a trade for me, for the most part...that's why...and strong down-trending markets tend to have opening gaps...

[PaceAdvantage]

Brutal, unrelenting drop these past few days...who saw this coming?

Even I'm starting to believe a little while watching today's action...

Too bad I've been sitting on my hands in cash since last Monday....:pout:

[PaceAdvantage]

Should be a pretty big volume day today, judging by the futures action....

Down 600+ points on the DOW again...been trading for almost 20 years now, and seems so long since we've seen days like these...:headbanger:

[PaceAdvantage]

1,000 point drop on the DOW today? Lookin more and more like it...

[PaceAdvantage]

Holy shit...there is NOBODY on the bid/ask in the S&P futures at the moment...well, virtually nobody

[PaceAdvantage]

Buyers coming back after it dropped almost 300 points in the last 5 minutes....WOW

[PaceAdvantage]

Now they're gone again....this thing is going NUTS

[PaceAdvantage]

This is like the old days baby....god damn I wish I was in this...

[PaceAdvantage]

BTW, all those debating me that they don't have BOTS that drive the market crazy like they do in horse racing, take a look at today...

[Saratoga_Mike]

Holy shit...there is NOBODY on the bid/ask in the S&P futures at the moment...well, virtually nobody

Pure speculation, but I believe there was a large incorrect trade placed on the TLT around the time of your comment here -- it freaked people out. Please see one-minute chart of TLT.

[PaceAdvantage]

VIX at 30+ right now....WOW

Haven't seen a VIX this high since I don't know when...wasn't even this high when the market had that mini-attack back in August '15

[PaceAdvantage]

Heading back down and sensing a close at the low? What will that do to the open tomorrow...holy smokerinos....

[jocko699]

I fear tomorrow will be another big downward slide:pout::pout::pout:

Even worse than I thought.

[PaceAdvantage]

Heading back down and sensing a close at the low? What will that do to the open tomorrow...holy smokerinos....Closed near the low...and futures went down another 20 points (or close to 200 DOW points) after the close...tomorrow should be pretty interesting as well...

Still 8 minutes of after-the-bell trading to go on the futures before they close for a break

[Marshall Bennett]

I knew it.....we're all gonna die!!!

[PaceAdvantage]

We are almost down to 2,600 on the S&P futures....we were at 2,700 about 45 minutes ago...

[reckless]

Even worse than I thought.

Same here. I was on the floor in 1987 ... that was scary. This is ... unbelievable.

[PaceAdvantage]

Futures closed at 2,607.50.

At 4pm they were at 2,650 or so....

[Saratoga_Mike]

Same here. I was on the floor in 1987 ... that was scary. This is ... unbelievable.

Why? The market's had a huge run over the past 15 months. Even with this modest correction, the S&P 500 trades at 17.4x 2018 estimated earnings (using the higher top down #s). If you think rates will stay here for the next few years, I guess that multiple makes sense. If you think rates might move up 100 to 150 bps, the market still seems fully valued. I realize you buy individual names, so none of this may matter to you.

[PaceAdvantage]

As big as this drop has been the last couple of days...everyone needs to realize just how much this market has gone up...forget about since November 2016...how about the last how many years?

Markets always go down faster than they go up...and the more they go up, the bigger those drops are going to seem...

But in reality...all we did was erase the gains for 2018...that's right...2018...which is barely a month old.

To put this move in perspective...it's still basically nothing.

[Nutz and Boltz]

I'm still pissed after closing my 401k account in 2013 when the Dow was at 13,000 and the "experts" said we were due for a Market collapse.:rant:

[Nutz and Boltz]

As big as this drop has been the last couple of days...everyone needs to realize just how much this market has gone up...forget about since November 2016...how about the last how many years?

Markets always go down faster than they go up...and the more they go up, the bigger those drops are going to seem...

But in reality...all we did was erase the gains for 2018...that's right...2018...which is barely a month old.

To put this move in perspective...it's still basically nothing.

They say by percentage , this is the 25th largest drop.

[Parkview_Pirate]

BTW, all those debating me that they don't have BOTS that drive the market crazy like they do in horse racing, take a look at today...

The bid/ask stack was ridiculous for a while. I hadn't logged in since early morning, saw the late PM dump and decided to ride a bounce - not knowing how thin it really was. D'oh! Got in and out of a couple trades for a quick dime, and then watched the plunge continue. Should not have gone into the pool. So much for the machines providing "liquidity". I guess only when they want it.

The only other day I've seen like this since 2008 was when Brexit passed, and ThinkorSwim jammed up tight.

S&P futures plunged to 2595.75 coming out of lock up, and now are around 2620 when trading resumes in 20 mins, which is right around the little dip from early December. Not sure where it will be tomorrow morning, but I suspect we'll see an overnight bounce up. Will take some gonads to be long in the morning....

[Parkview_Pirate]

... Not sure where it will be tomorrow morning, but I suspect we'll see an overnight bounce up.

Or not.

Futures currently down 50 on the S&P (~2%) around 2555. The bid/ask numbers about 1/10th of normal. Staying out of the pool.

Here's a post by Karl Denninger on the carnage, implying the HFT machines are turned off. If the futes are lock-limit down in the morning, it'll be curious what Trump will be tweeting.....

http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=232923

[PaceAdvantage]

Is Karl Denninger actually taking the loss of 2018's market gain (that's right...we lost one month of market gains...that's it...in all this "carnage") to hype all that nonsense? :lol:

Although he is 100% correct on the BOT trading...I should take his post and put it up in the thread where someone tried to tell me that what happens in horse racing with the computer robotic wagering doesn't happen in the stock market...:lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Over 400,00 S&P futures contracts have traded already since the close...that's big time overnight volume...S&P futures currently sit at 2535....this is the session LOW thus far...

It closed at 4pm at 26450...in DOW terms, it's down 1,000 points since the market CLOSED today....and the market closed down 1,100 points or so...

That's over a 2,000 point drop in less than one day so far...

And Karl is right...there is NO liquidity at the bid and ask...SINGLE DIGITS....during regular markets, you'd see probably triple digit liquidity, even at this time of night, or close to it...

Was bitcoin really the Ponzi scheme after all? :lol:

[highnote]

Two of my sell indicators were triggered on Friday. Combined with other factors it has been obvious to me since January there would be a correction. The hard part is getting the timing right. I have been 50% in cash for 6 months. The stocks I own are fairly low volatility, but they have fallen a bit.

VIX has nearly quadrupled to 37 since its recent lows of around 9.

There have been 4 prime rate hikes since December of 2016. The most recent hike was in January 2018. Those hikes were all ¼ point, but combined they equal a 1% hike since the low of 3.25% in January 2009.

When interest rates go up, stocks tend to go down.

Portfolio insurance is probably involved, too. If a little player like me got a sell signal then there were probably a lot of other big time money managers who got sell signals on Friday, too.

I think we all knew a correction in the stock market (as well as cryptos) was coming. It was just a matter of when, how big, and how long.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Is Karl Denninger actually taking the loss of 2018's market gain (that's right...we lost one month of market gains...that's it...in all this "carnage") to hype all that nonsense? :lol:

Although he is 100% correct on the BOT trading...I should take his post and put it up in the thread where someone tried to tell me that what happens in horse racing with the computer robotic wagering doesn't happen in the stock market...:lol:

Denniger's site always has a lot more traffic when the market tanks, per his calls back in 2007 and 2008 that rough waters were ahead, so I suppose he took the last few days of declines to get back on his "I told you so" horse.

I'd agree that so far we've only seen the froth on top of the last move get blown off - but, with the thin stack we can see how fragile things can get, and how quickly the moves can go. I'll be curious if KD spells out any specifics of the damage. It makes you worry how sound things are, though I can already hear the grumblings for QE 4.

4:17 AM EST, and futes have made a big turnaround, up 33 at 2640. The stack is a bit more stable, and now roughly 20-30% of normal levels, with heavier volume as you pointed out for the overnight session.

Gonna set the alarm clock for the open. Could be interesting.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Two of my sell indicators were triggered on Friday. Combined with other factors it has been obvious to me since January there would be a correction. The hard part is getting the timing right. I have been 50% in cash for 6 months. The stocks I own are fairly low volatility, but they have fallen a bit.

VIX has nearly quadrupled to 37 since its recent lows of around 9.

There have been 4 prime rate hikes since December of 2016. The most recent hike was in January 2018. Those hikes were all ¼ point, but combined they equal a 1% hike since the low of 3.25% in January 2009.

When interest rates go up, stocks tend to go down.

Portfolio insurance is probably involved, too. If a little player like me got a sell signal then there were probably a lot of other big time money managers who got sell signals on Friday, too.

I think we all knew a correction in the stock market (as well as cryptos) was coming. It was just a matter of when, how big, and how long.

Plenty of factors at work, including the rate hikes which still probably aren't priced in. Yesterday's sell off reminds me a bit of the market tantrums back in 2012 when rate hikes were discussed - perhaps a message for the new Fed Chair Powell?

Definitely had to be some margin calls too, and now some speculators will be left high and dry by their brokerages. If the dollar actually strengthens during the next big flush, things could crash pretty quickly. It only moved up a buck the last three trading days from 88.44 to 89.48. What's the market do if it goes back to 100?:eek:

[highnote]

Plenty of factors at work, including the rate hikes which still probably aren't priced in. Yesterday's sell off reminds me a bit of the market tantrums back in 2012 when rate hikes were discussed - perhaps a message for the new Fed Chair Powell?

Definitely had to be some margin calls too, and now some speculators will be left high and dry by their brokerages. If the dollar actually strengthens during the next big flush, things could crash pretty quickly. It only moved up a buck the last three trading days from 88.44 to 89.48. What's the market do if it goes back to 100?:eek:

Another factor I use from Martin Zweig is called "Installment Debt Non-Seasonally Adjusted".

You buy when it is falling and drops below 9%.

You sell when it is rising and exceeds 9%.

It jumped from 7% to 12% last November. That might have been a foreshadowing of what was ahead.

With the rate hikes it is now getting more expensive to service the debt. Think about all the people who have adjustable rate mortgages. Their mortgage payments are increasing.

Some people may need to sell stocks in order to have cash to pay bills. Or they are just taking some profits and will use it to pay down debt.

[PaceAdvantage]

It jumped from 7% to 12% last November. That might have been a foreshadowing of what was ahead.If you started selling last November, you'd still be way under water, even after the moves of recent days...

[Parkview_Pirate]

Monster bounce again on the open after a head fake lower. 16 mins in, and S&P up 39, and looking to go higher. Very thin stack. Would be ballsy to be in now, short or long. VIX falling to 24.

More thoughts from KD. In short, he says this is not the crash, but the setup for it. His thoughts on bitcoin - it's a zero.

http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=232925

[Parkview_Pirate]

Another factor I use from Martin Zweig is called "Installment Debt Non-Seasonally Adjusted".

You buy when it is falling and drops below 9%.

You sell when it is rising and exceeds 9%.

It jumped from 7% to 12% last November. That might have been a foreshadowing of what was ahead.

With the rate hikes it is now getting more expensive to service the debt. Think about all the people who have adjustable rate mortgages. Their mortgage payments are increasing.

Some people may need to sell stocks in order to have cash to pay bills. Or they are just taking some profits and will use it to pay down debt.

The massive amount of 'bad' debt is beyond comprehension. Bad in the sense it will never get paid. It's really hard to get a handle on how much there is, since the mark-to-market rules are so lax.

Wow. Quite the pop to 2680, but already 20 points off that. Dollar is up sharply, so wouldn't be too surprised to see the S&P settle back near 2620. But I ain't tradin' that. So thin right now.

Looks like it'll be jumpy for a while yet.

[PaceAdvantage]

People who aren't used to this kind of action must be bug-eyed right about now.

30 point S&P moves in 5 minutes...love this stuff...just wish I would get a trading signal one of these days...:lol:

[Parkview_Pirate]

People who aren't used to this kind of action must be bug-eyed right about now.

30 point S&P moves in 5 minutes...love this stuff...just wish I would get a trading signal one of these days...:lol:

The only signal I'm seeing is "STAY AWAY". Vix spiking above 32 now.

[Ocala Mike]

Some XIV fund (i.e., a fund for people short volatility) folded up its tent and closed shop. Basically lost 85% of its value in 3 days.

[PaceAdvantage]

Some XIV fund (i.e., a fund for people short volatility) folded up its tent and closed shop. Basically lost 85% of its value in 3 days.I saw that...pretty shocking...it was at around $100 at the close yesterday....then after hours it dropped to around $16...and now it's pretty much dead.

This wasn't traded on some third-world-market exchange.

This was something that was traded on the NASDAQ....

Mind...blown...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/06/the-obscure-volatility-security-thats-become-the-focus-of-this-sell-off-is-halted-after-an-80-percent-plunge.html

And they say things like this can only happen in racing with the CRW teams wreaking havoc...:pound:

People will never learn.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I saw that...pretty shocking...it was at around $100 at the close yesterday....then after hours it dropped to around $16...and now it's pretty much dead.

This wasn't traded on some third-world-market exchange.

This was something that was traded on the NASDAQ....

Mind...blown...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/06/the-obscure-volatility-security-thats-become-the-focus-of-this-sell-off-is-halted-after-an-80-percent-plunge.html

And they say things like this can only happen in racing with the CRW teams wreaking havoc...:pound:

People will never learn.

Truer words never spoken.

[AltonKelsey]

Some XIV fund (i.e., a fund for people short volatility) folded up its tent and closed shop. Basically lost 85% of its value in 3 days.


you're too kind, more like 90% in 45 minutes AFTER HOURS no less. 2 billion gone.

and there were others too.

actually not a fund per se, but a leveraged bet on futures

[Ocala Mike]

Thanks for the correction, Alton. Makes cryptocurrency speculation look conservative by comparison, not to mention playing the ponies.

[highnote]

If you started selling last November, you'd still be way under water, even after the moves of recent days...

Good point. It is difficult to get the timing right.

Personally, I have been in a holding pattern for the past several months. That probably wasn't optimal. I probably missed some of the gains on the way up to the top, but I have 50% cash in reserve and can sleep well at night while I wait for a correction.

[Parkview_Pirate]

I saw that...pretty shocking...it was at around $100 at the close yesterday....then after hours it dropped to around $16...and now it's pretty much dead.

This wasn't traded on some third-world-market exchange.

This was something that was traded on the NASDAQ....

Mind...blown...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/06/the-obscure-volatility-security-thats-become-the-focus-of-this-sell-off-is-halted-after-an-80-percent-plunge.html

And they say things like this can only happen in racing with the CRW teams wreaking havoc...:pound:

People will never learn.

The scary part of this story is thinking about all the other leveraged instruments now in play versus 2008. We thought it was bad enough with derivatives and CDOs, but now some of those "innovative" snow jobs are disguised as legitimate stocks/ETFs.

Just ask this guy what he thinks, with 2.5YRs and almost $4M down the drain:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-07/digging-deeper

At least he owned up to it. That's what being greedy can do.

The thing I learned about this week's plunge was that liquidity dries up quickly, and you can't rely on brokerages. Somehow got my S&P 2500 put sold yesterday at the open on OptionsHouse for $77, while watching the bid fall and fall as the bounce took off - but the confirmation was delayed 5 minutes allowing me to panic and curse. That put closed yesterday around $26, and is half that today. Gotta be quick, and it probably pays to put the order in off hours when things aren't so jammed....

I've come full circle now on the market. Back in 2008 I thought it would crash and end the world, by 2013 I thought the FED had enough salt to see a slower grind down on a useful pullback. Now I'm convinced a crash is what we'll see, and the aftermath won't be pretty.

[_______]

The Credit Suisse ETN that folded had returned 46% annually since 2010 before imploding Monday. Both Barron’s and Seeking Alpha had articles over the last several months noting how crowded the “short volatility” trade had become and how many retail investors had been lulled by 8 years of steadily lowering volatility into thinking this was easy money.

One of the authors had described the trade as “picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer”.

[AltonKelsey]

EVERYONE knew the low volatility trade would blow up at some point.

Exactly when is always the issue. I'm sure there were quite a few false starts , that if you put on a bet, you would have lost big money.

And by the time it really hits the fan , everyone except a very few are gun shy.

No one said it was easy.


That said, those that got carried out, are no better than the guy who runs $2 to $20,000 and then blows it all on the last race.

They may even be worse. In one day at the track, you can get caught up in the excitement of the moment, "vol" sellers had YEARS to get smart. I assume many did and only a few greedy types blew up.

So much for Yahoo Finance who has this as the XIV data two days later

Net Assets 1.86B
NAV 123.93

Todays close is 5.95, give or take a dime

[barahona44]

With today's big drops, both the Dow and S & P 500 have entered the 10 percent correction mode , the first in two years, which is a longer interval than normal.The usual interval is about 11 1/2 months.

[_______]

I don’t think this is the big drop but I do think returns on stocks over the next ten years is going to be mid single digits. This has been the best bull market since I started investing back in early 80’s and anyone expecting returns like the last ten years is nuts.

Somewhere in that time period (10 years) there will be a recession or two and if this little correction gave you the willies and made you want to sell, don’t be in the market. I expect at some point there will be a drop closer to 40% (as the market overshoots to the downside as it always does) and taking permanent impairments to your wealth when that happens will be disaterous.

If the market ever goes to zero, you will have bigger problems than money. Despite the nutty stuff you hear during a serious sell off, it doesn’t actually happen. Learn to take a punch without panicking and the next ten years will be okay. Not great. But okay.

[PaceAdvantage]

If the market ever goes to zero, you will have bigger problems than money. Despite the nutty stuff you hear during a serious sell off, it doesn’t actually happen. Learn to take a punch without panicking and the next ten years will be okay. Not great. But okay.This is probably some of the best advice I've seen posted here, and I totally agree with you.

Oh, and pay attention to friends, family and neighbors. When THEY start bailing during a market drop, you know it's getting very near the time to BUY.

[Ocala Mike]

Oh, and pay attention to friends, family and neighbors. When THEY start bailing during a market drop, you know it's getting very near the time to BUY.



Exactly! And when you hear supermarket bag boys talking about how they want to get into the market (I did), it's time to SELL!

I made a little money selling TWTR at it's high yesterday morning on the "irrational exuberance." I have very little exposure now - waiting for what PA said to get back in for a bargain or two.

[Saratoga_Mike]

In Feb 2000, literally every other TV at Gulfstream Park was tuned into CNBC.

[Valuist]

In Feb 2000, literally every other TV at Gulfstream Park was tuned into CNBC.

That was the height of the lunacy. I think everyone knew a crash was coming, but many had been saying that for much of 1999.

[lamboguy]

market went down to its 200 day moving average and it got bought. the people that bought today are going to get toasted and roasted!

[Valuist]

A friend of mine claims his firm is expecting THREE rate hikes in 2018. I politely told him they had better re-think their strategy. The markets couldn't handle it. Too bad we can't bet over/unders on rate hikes for this year; if the posted number was 3, I'd hammer the under.

[PaceAdvantage]

Not only three, but one of the reasons the market started tanking was because given the labor stats and wage growth numbers lately, some people who think about such things were contemplating the real threat of a FOURTH rate hike this year...so why would three be so out of the question if they were already pondering a fourth, given the economic numbers coming out as of late?

[Saratoga_Mike]

A friend of mine claims his firm is expecting THREE rate hikes in 2018. I politely told him they had better re-think their strategy. The markets couldn't handle it. Too bad we can't bet over/unders on rate hikes for this year; if the posted number was 3, I'd hammer the under.

Fed funds futures are a proxy for the number of hikes, so you can effectively bet on or against the number of hikes.

[_______]

I’d take the over on 3 assuming I got a no bet on that exact number.

You have added stimulus through the tax package to an already good economy. Someone has to be the adult in the room (or pee in the punch bowl if you prefer that analogy).

I assume this economy is good and only going to get better. If that assumption is correct, the Fed will need to tighten a lot to keep a lid on inflation. Even if 4 raises this year is wrong and it’s only 3, it’s not as if they’ll stop in 2019.

The 2/10 spread has widened recently after flattening all last year. That isn’t a sign of slowing growth. They need to be on top of this. The full effects of the tax package isn’t going to hit the real economy for a good while yet.

[Saratoga_Mike]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

[kingfin66]

This is probably some of the best advice I've seen posted here, and I totally agree with you.

Oh, and pay attention to friends, family and neighbors. When THEY start bailing during a market drop, you know it's getting very near the time to BUY.

I never understand why people get spooked and want to sell on a drop. Buy low and sell high! I spend a little time each day checking out a forum called bogleheads.com, named after the CEO of Vanguard, Jack Bogle. For months I have been reading comments, almost arrogant comments, by Bogleheads saying to maintain a three-fund portfolio and never waver. During the past week I have been reading threads about whether the Bogleheads should "rebalance." The psychology of never wavering is much easier until you get that punch. I am 52 percent cash in my 457 and IRA. Let's go down some more so my buy signals are activated.