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cj
11-30-2017, 05:20 PM
Nothing overly illuminating here. I imagine most know late speed is king in turf racing. But here is some numerical data based on all the G1/G2 turf races run in 2017. I used percentiles. If you are ranked first, you are in the 100% percentile, if you are last, you are in the 0%. If you are 5th in a 9 horse field you are in the 50% percentile.

I ranked where horses were in the field at the pace call and also how fast they finished the race (the last fraction). I did break it down by distance but it turns out distance doesn't matter all that much on turf.

For the pace call, the winners look like this:

Average: 60th percentile
Median: 63rd percentile

For the final fraction, winners look like this:

Average: 81st percentile
Median: 84th percentile

I'll do dirt next...any guesses on how close it will be to turf?

VigorsTheGrey
11-30-2017, 05:41 PM
Nothing overly illuminating here. I imagine most know late speed is king in turf racing. But here is some numerical data based on all the G1/G2 turf races run in 2017. I used percentiles. If you are ranked first, you are in the 100% percentile, if you are last, you are in the 0%. If you are 5th in a 9 horse field you are in the 50% percentile.

I ranked where horses were in the field at the pace call and also how fast they finished the race (the last fraction). I did break it down by distance but it turns out distance doesn't matter all that much on turf.

For the pace call, the winners look like this:

Average: 60th percentile
Median: 63rd percentile

For the final fraction, winners look like this:

Average: 81st percentile
Median: 84th percentile

I'll do dirt next...any guesses on how close it will be to turf?

I'm ignorant of this stuff but here goes...maybe after I won't be, having actually learned something..

Pace call
Average...72
Median...72

Final Fraction...
Average... 75
Median...75

cj
11-30-2017, 05:45 PM
I'm ignorant of this stuff but here goes...

Pace call
Average...72
Median...72

Final Fraction...
Average... 75
Median...75

I'm sure the pace call will be higher than turf, I'd go at least 75% and maybe 80%. For the final fraction I think it will be much lower, maybe as low as 60.

Distance might be more of a factor on dirt than it was on turf.

VigorsTheGrey
11-30-2017, 05:50 PM
I'm sure the pace call will be higher than turf, I'd go at least 75% and maybe 80%. For the final fraction I think it will be much lower, maybe as low as 60.

Distance might be more of a factor on dirt than it was on turf.

Yeah I think you are right...I'll revise

Pace call
Average..77
Median...77

Final Fraction
Average...65
Median...65

PICSIX
11-30-2017, 07:57 PM
Nothing overly illuminating here. I imagine most know late speed is king in turf racing. But here is some numerical data based on all the G1/G2 turf races run in 2017. I used percentiles. If you are ranked first, you are in the 100% percentile, if you are last, you are in the 0%. If you are 5th in a 9 horse field you are in the 50% percentile.

I ranked where horses were in the field at the pace call and also how fast they finished the race (the last fraction). I did break it down by distance but it turns out distance doesn't matter all that much on turf.

For the pace call, the winners look like this:

Average: 60th percentile
Median: 63rd percentile

For the final fraction, winners look like this:

Average: 81st percentile
Median: 84th percentile

I'll do dirt next...any guesses on how close it will be to turf?


A comparison of graded stakes to claiming might be interesting. My hunch is early speed is more important for the cheap horses on both surfaces?!

cj
11-30-2017, 09:20 PM
A comparison of graded stakes to claiming might be interesting. My hunch is early speed is more important for the cheap horses on both surfaces?!

I've done that before, and it is, but not nearly as much as people might think. I did it based on time and found the classier the horses (and older) the better they distributed energy, but it was a small difference.

Dave Schwartz
11-30-2017, 10:44 PM
Nothing overly illuminating here. I imagine most know late speed is king in turf racing. ...

I'll do dirt next...any guesses on how close it will be to turf?

CJ,

Take a look at Turf Sprints. My stats indicate that they actually run early. Not as early as dirt races (and poly turfs are in the middle), but not so very late as turf routes.

cj
11-30-2017, 10:46 PM
CJ,

Take a look at Turf Sprints. My stats indicate that they actually run early. Not as early as dirt races (and poly turfs are in the middle), but not so very late as turf routes.

The sample was pretty small for G1/G2 races. I don't doubt that changes some for lower class racing.

jay68802
12-01-2017, 12:50 PM
My guess on dirt would be just a mirror image of turf.

cj
12-01-2017, 01:03 PM
For the pace call on DIRT, the winners look like this:

Average: 76th percentile
Median: 83rd percentile

Final fractions to come...

storyline
12-01-2017, 01:48 PM
Nothing overly illuminating here. I imagine most know late speed is king in turf racing. But here is some numerical data based on all the G1/G2 turf races run in 2017. I used percentiles. If you are ranked first, you are in the 100% percentile, if you are last, you are in the 0%. If you are 5th in a 9 horse field you are in the 50% percentile.

I ranked where horses were in the field at the pace call and also how fast they finished the race (the last fraction). I did break it down by distance but it turns out distance doesn't matter all that much on turf.

For the pace call, the winners look like this:

Average: 60th percentile
Median: 63rd percentile

For the final fraction, winners look like this:

Average: 81st percentile
Median: 84th percentile

I'll do dirt next...any guesses on how close it will be to turf?

I think track speed and pace have a direct correlation with any measurement of distribution of energy.

If the data for "dirt" included filtering by trackspeed (blue-red-neutral coding) my guess would be that the results would be more reliable...

cj
12-01-2017, 04:46 PM
I think track speed and pace have a direct correlation with any measurement of distribution of energy.

If the data for "dirt" included filtering by trackspeed (blue-red-neutral coding) my guess would be that the results would be more reliable...

Pace certainly would have an effect, but it probably isn't as big as many believe. Track speed I'm not so sure.

storyline
12-01-2017, 05:13 PM
Pace certainly would have an effect, but it probably isn't as big as many believe. Track speed I'm not so sure.

Why not run it and find out, I'm assuming all energy measurements are calculated using adjusted times?

cj
12-01-2017, 06:26 PM
Why not run it and find out, I'm assuming all energy measurements are calculated using adjusted times?

Nope, just been using raw times for now. I also only started with G1/G2 stakes so the sample is pretty small to break up into subsets. My goal here was to see what the numbers say about the very best horses.

cj
12-01-2017, 06:30 PM
For the pace call on DIRT, the winners look like this:

Average: 76th percentile
Median: 83rd percentile

Final fractions to come...

OK, this one REALLY surprised me.

For the last fraction on DIRT, the winners look like this:

Average: 89percentile
Median: 100th percentile

storyline
12-01-2017, 07:47 PM
Nope, just been using raw times for now. I also only started with G1/G2 stakes so the sample is pretty small to break up into subsets. My goal here was to see what the numbers say about the very best horses.

Not sure why you'd use raw times but I'm sure you have your reasons.

For the extra few minutes it would take I'm not sure why you wouldn't run the same data using adjusted time as one of the filters.

VigorsTheGrey
12-01-2017, 09:13 PM
OK, this one REALLY surprised me.

For the last fraction on DIRT, the winners look like this:

Average: 89percentile
Median: 100th percentile
No way this is right...there must be an error, especially the median 100

nomadpat
12-01-2017, 11:05 PM
When you say pace call, are you talking the first or second? In a 6f race, would it be 2f or 4f call?

cj
12-01-2017, 11:58 PM
When you say pace call, are you talking the first or second? In a 6f race, would it be 2f or 4f call?

4f, 6f for routes less than 10f, etc.

cj
12-02-2017, 12:00 AM
No way this is right...there must be an error, especially the median 100

Nope, it is right. More than half were won by the horse with the fastest last fraction. Why would you think I made an error? I'm diligent .😀

VigorsTheGrey
12-02-2017, 12:28 AM
Nope, it is right. More than half were won by the horse with the fastest last fraction. Why would you think I made an error? I'm diligent .😀

Just surprised, like you....wondering how representative it is for the non-graded stakes as well....maybe more weight should be given in the TimeformUS Late Pace figure to the last race final fraction (assuming it doesn't do this already)...What would be great is if the final fraction was shown on the DRF for each start...so all of us could be on a level playing field (those of us without computer software that cranks these out)...I've always felt the best final fraction was a potentially huge indicator of positive future performance...yet how widespread is the phenom...?

CincyHorseplayer
12-02-2017, 11:39 AM
I was thinking equal on dirt and turf for the last fraction but was only somewhat surprised about the dirt numbers. At higher levels and competitive meets I have noticed that many of my ratings invented from ideas about turf racing started popping up as winning ratings for dirt races. Cheap speed IMO just doesn't wreak as much havoc anymore. Or the jockeys don't utilize it as they should as often. Pandy is well aware of these concepts.

GMB@BP
12-02-2017, 04:19 PM
Nothing overly illuminating here. I imagine most know late speed is king in turf racing. But here is some numerical data based on all the G1/G2 turf races run in 2017. I used percentiles. If you are ranked first, you are in the 100% percentile, if you are last, you are in the 0%. If you are 5th in a 9 horse field you are in the 50% percentile.

I ranked where horses were in the field at the pace call and also how fast they finished the race (the last fraction). I did break it down by distance but it turns out distance doesn't matter all that much on turf.

For the pace call, the winners look like this:

Average: 60th percentile
Median: 63rd percentile

For the final fraction, winners look like this:

Average: 81st percentile
Median: 84th percentile

I'll do dirt next...any guesses on how close it will be to turf?

When you say the last fraction, that obviously can be 1F in some calls and 2F in other distances, so I assume its just all last fraction calls in a chart regardless of if its a 1f or 2f call...hope that makes sense.

cj
12-02-2017, 05:47 PM
When you say the last fraction, that obviously can be 1F in some calls and 2F in other distances, so I assume its just all last fraction calls in a chart regardless of if its a 1f or 2f call...hope that makes sense.


No, never 1f. I use the 6f call until 10f, then the 1m, and 1m 1/4 for 1m 1/2 races.

GMB@BP
12-02-2017, 07:10 PM
No, never 1f. I use the 6f call until 10f, then the 1m, and 1m 1/4 for 1m 1/2 races.

ok, just trying to figure out how to look at this when its a sprint running line versus a route, say like today in the G1 Cigar Mile. I am on the slow side, sorry.