View Full Version : Daily double math

dragon49

11-29-2017, 08:20 PM

Assuming both halves of a daily double have 8 entries and a bettor boxes 1-4 in race 1 with the field in race 2.

Assuming one of his selections wins race 1, what do the average odds one the winners have to be for the wager to break even?

thaskalos

11-29-2017, 08:28 PM

31-1

dragon49

11-29-2017, 08:55 PM

31-1

I had a feeling it was a bad strategy, but had no idea it was that bad.

Do you mind sharing the formula you used to figure it out.

Thanks

thaskalos

11-29-2017, 09:01 PM

There is no fancy formula involved. You are betting on 32 different daily-double combinations...so you need a 31-1 average payoff in order to break even.

garyscpa

11-30-2017, 11:38 PM

There is no fancy formula involved. You are betting on 32 different daily-double combinations...so you need a 31-1 average payoff in order to break even.

I think you misunderstood the question.

Fred Mertz

12-01-2017, 12:16 AM

I think you misunderstood the question.

Conditional probability I assume. He wins the first race of the daily double.

Not enough information provided to answer his question.

My second race horses would finish second or third. I know this from experience.

davew

12-05-2017, 02:40 PM

I think you misunderstood the question.

Thask answered what the daily double must pay -

the original question was about what the second horse must pay

We do not know what the winner of the first paid, but it does not even matter because the daily double is a separate parimutual pool and not a 'parlay'.

Before most tracks had daily doubles in most races, some bettors made their own 'double' by making win bet parlays.

Franco Santiago

12-05-2017, 05:31 PM

The statement of the problem should be:

What aggregate ROI do I need in each race of the leg of a daily double to ultimately show a profit on the bet. The ROI is in relation to the win pool, as it is our only reference.

Taking 4 horses in an 8 horse field, if you are REALLY good, will result in about a .82 or .83 ROI. Most people aren't that good.

Taking all of the horses in an 8 horse field will yield about a .69 or .70 ROI...or mayyyyybe .71 or .72.

These aggregate ROIs will yield a huge loss in the daily double pool...probably on the order of 20 cents on the dollar (.80 ROI).

Try narrowing the selections down to two per race with an ROI of about .90 (if you bet them to win). You'll have a decent shot of being profitable, but you will have to withstand some potentially ugly losing streaks.

There's no two ways about it...if you want to profit, you are going to have to find longer prices and have the discipline and patience to withstand the potentially debilitating losing streaks. If you want to cash tickets, just play the top two in the morning line...you'll cash tons of tickets, but the bankroll erosion will be fast and definitive.

green80

12-05-2017, 09:29 PM

The statement of the problem should be:

What aggregate ROI do I need in each race of the leg of a daily double to ultimately show a profit on the bet. The ROI is in relation to the win pool, as it is our only reference.

Taking 4 horses in an 8 horse field, if you are REALLY good, will result in about a .82 or .83 ROI. Most people aren't that good.

Taking all of the horses in an 8 horse field will yield about a .69 or .70 ROI...or mayyyyybe .71 or .72.

These aggregate ROIs will yield a huge loss in the daily double pool...probably on the order of 20 cents on the dollar (.80 ROI).

Try narrowing the selections down to two per race with an ROI of about .90 (if you bet them to win). You'll have a decent shot of being profitable, but you will have to withstand some potentially ugly losing streaks.

There's no two ways about it...if you want to profit, you are going to have to find longer prices and have the discipline and patience to withstand the potentially debilitating losing streaks. If you want to cash tickets, just play the top two in the morning line...you'll cash tons of tickets, but the bankroll erosion will be fast and definitive.

The double ROI may or may not be relative to the win pool, the double is a seperate pool from the win pool. What the double pays can be lower or higher that what the horses pay in the win pools. Doubles pay sometimes more or sometimes less than a parlay of the same two horses in the win pool.

Franco Santiago

12-05-2017, 10:36 PM

The double ROI may or may not be relative to the win pool, the double is a seperate pool from the win pool. What the double pays can be lower or higher that what the horses pay in the win pools. Doubles pay sometimes more or sometimes less than a parlay of the same two horses in the win pool.

I agree. But, in general, they pay more than a parlay, especially if the two morning line favorites don't win.

green80

12-08-2017, 07:26 PM

I agree. But, in general, they pay more than a parlay, especially if the two morning line favorites don't win.

They should, the take only comes out one time. But I am suprised at some track a parlay would pay more when the horses have some decent odds.

AltonKelsey

12-08-2017, 11:24 PM

Nothing surprising about it. Take two 10-1 shots

Forgetting about takeout for the moment to simplify the example.

100-1 For the DD

thats only 1% of the pool, which might not be all that large , even at a major.

Very easy for that to be overbet . just an extra $100 double enough to take quite a bit off the payoff.

So the parlay can easily pay more

green80

12-09-2017, 10:39 AM

Nothing surprising about it. Take two 10-1 shots

Forgetting about takeout for the moment to simplify the example.

100-1 For the DD

thats only 1% of the pool, which might not be all that large , even at a major.

Very easy for that to be overbet . just an extra $100 double enough to take quite a bit off the payoff.

So the parlay can easily pay more

That is my point, to respectfully disagree with post #10

AndyC

12-09-2017, 02:21 PM

That is my point, to respectfully disagree with post #10

Yes DD payoffs can be skewed because of small pools but "generally" they will pay more than a parlay. I agree with post#10.

AltonKelsey

12-09-2017, 03:17 PM

Of course, on average, DD will pay more than the parlay, it pretty much HAS TO. Every winning combo is not going to overbet

It's a 2 race version of what you get in the p3 - p6, where thats almost 100% true

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