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TravisVOX
08-17-2004, 04:02 PM
I've been working with the ESP run-style method a lot recently... been trying to develop my pace analysis game a touch.

My question is this...

Does anyone have or use a chart/software/spreadsheet that helps to lay-out the data more easily? I find myself scribbling all over the place and getting lost. Was wondering if there was a tool that would help!

--Travis

masterpeg
08-17-2004, 08:14 PM
are you looking for something to make it easier to come up with Brohammer like pace numbers: EP/AP/SF/FX

IF so I have spread sheet made out for every distance. you will have to put in the splts and lenghts back and the formulas fill out the pace numbers.

If I knew how to write programs I would love to write one so I could just import the pps and it did the rest, but that is wishful thinking.

Zaf
08-17-2004, 08:54 PM
I tried to use this a lot in my handicapping at one time. Unfortunately I found out that a race rarely sets up as you expect. Sometimes a horse jets out that shouldn't , sometimes a horse that usually leaves holds back, etc. Lone E's usually get hammered and offer little value. :confused: :confused: :confused:

ZAFONIC

masterpeg
08-17-2004, 09:02 PM
At this point with my experience, The numbers are a great asset.
I use them to aid me, not as a sole predictor. Many times horses come out first in all categories that I wouldn't have seen just looking at the pps, and the winner almost always comes from a horse in the top 3 and sometimes at very nice odds.

That being said, I used to rely heavier on them, but didn't win much...lately (very lately), I have been including other factors:class, form/recency, connections, and beyers to find the best horse and have been hot over the last 3 days I played. I will continue to use the pace numbers to validate horses.

Zaf
08-17-2004, 09:10 PM
Masterpeg,

What are you using to set up your pace scenario 1FR, EP, raw times ? , adjusted times ? Just curious , would like to figure this ESP thing out :)

ZAFONIC

Tom
08-17-2004, 09:19 PM
If you are talking about Early, Pressers, sustained (ESP) and looking for a way to layout your race analysis based on that, Pace Makes the Race has a neat layout I used when I was doing pencil and paper TPR.
It was something like

Early
98-100-198
101- 99-199
100- 96-196

Presser
96- 99-195
95- 101-196
97- 99-198

Sustained

92- 104-196
90- 101-191


You started with the early horses, analyzed them, then moved to the pressers, and finally the rear runners. The idea was to not conside the horse running behind unless there was reason to bypass front runners. If you have the book, there are good examples in there of how to use this matrix.

masterpeg
08-17-2004, 09:19 PM
I go about it just like Brohammer layed it out.
use standard adjustments of raw numbers at three fractions (adjusted by variants). Sprints use 1st, 2nd and last while routes use 2nd 3rd and last. EP is 2nd for sprints and 3rd(6F) for routes.
The formulas are simple but painstakingly slow to do by hand. All your doing is figuring out the horse Feet per second speed. Then playing with those numbers to figure out EP, AVG pace and sustained pace....also figures out Energy consumption which is handy for horses stretching out.

Tom
08-17-2004, 09:24 PM
Originally posted by masterpeg
I go about it just like Brohammer layed it out.
use standard adjustments of raw numbers at three fractions (adjusted by variants). Sprints use 1st, 2nd and last while routes use 2nd 3rd and last. EP is 2nd for sprints and 3rd(6F) for routes.
The formulas are simple but painstakingly slow to do by hand. All your doing is figuring out the horse Feet per second speed. Then playing with those numbers to figure out EP, AVG pace and sustained pace....also figures out Energy consumption which is handy for horses stretching out.

OK. Trackmaster sells Brohammer's Modern Pace Handicapping software whcih will lay this whole thing out for you. HTR does too, but you need to subscribe and committ to $100+ a month. MPH might be what you are looking for for your needs.
There are some HTRF users here - that program might do this too-I haven' t used it in a while.
Or set up an Excel or other spreadsheet to do it for you.

shanta
08-17-2004, 09:26 PM
I agree with Tom's post about "pace makes the race". If you are not using computer generated "esp" designations which are available in a few programs the TPR numbers are fantastic and SO SIMPLE to understand.

Richie

masterpeg
08-17-2004, 09:41 PM
I use a spreadsheet. What is HTR and where do I go to look at it.
I don't play enough now to commit to 100+per month, but am interest in buying a program that does it for me. As long as I can pick the paceline

TravisVOX
08-17-2004, 11:13 PM
"Pace Makes the Race" ... this is a book, or software? I've never seen it at any on-line book stores.

Tom
08-17-2004, 11:18 PM
Originally posted by TravisVOX
"Pace Makes the Race" ... this is a book, or software? I've never seen it at any on-line book stores.

It's a book.
Do search here at PA's - it was discussed several times, and was co-written by our own Dick Schmidt (with Tom Hambleton and Michael Pizzolla)

Zaf
08-18-2004, 12:31 AM
Originally posted by shanta
I agree with Tom's post about "pace makes the race". If you are not using computer generated "esp" designations which are available in a few programs the TPR numbers are fantastic and SO SIMPLE to understand.

Richie

What is a TPR number ?

ZAFONIC

Speed Figure
08-18-2004, 12:39 AM
TPR is Total Pace Rating.

Speed Figure
08-18-2004, 01:10 AM
Download this program, It has what your talking about. This is the full working program with 3 days of races from 5 or 6 tracks.


http://synergism-sdp.com/

Tom
08-18-2004, 07:36 PM
Breifly, TPR is a rating method that rates the second call and final fractions of a race, with adjustments made for daily variant and track to track variants. You use the DRF SR+TV and make your own track to track. I got to the point where I used the Beyer numbers to get the daily variant and just used that and got good results. The books (there are two, actually) have a good deal of handicapping advice in them and are pretty interesting reads.
TPR is a simple way to pace rate horses and if you use some common sense and handicapping experience, the ratings are good enough to make money.

Zaf
08-18-2004, 09:39 PM
Tom ,

Essentially EP + SP :confused: ???

ZAFONIC

Speed Figure
08-18-2004, 09:53 PM
TPR- Total Pace Rating
Represents how fast the horse ran for the entire race
Early Pace Ratings + Final Fraction Rating.

Zaf
08-18-2004, 10:00 PM
Originally posted by Speed Figure
TPR- Total Pace Rating
Represents how fast the horse ran for the entire race
Early Pace Ratings + Final Fraction Rating.

Wouldn't that be a speed figure :confused: ? Whats the difference ?

ZAFONIC

Tom
08-18-2004, 10:08 PM
Originally posted by zafonic
Tom ,

Essentially EP + SP :confused: ???

ZAFONIC


Yeah, that's it. The nice part is it is not just a speed fig, you have the early pace to look at as well.

superfecta
08-18-2004, 10:57 PM
Originally posted by zafonic
Wouldn't that be a speed figure :confused: ? Whats the difference ?

ZAFONIC The difference is how you are looking at the race "segments" to see a possible pace setup between the horses running today.Better than one number since you see how the horse can run early and late.The fastest horse is not nessarily the horse that will win the race.If he runs too fast too soon it can take him out.even though he is a better horse.Or if he will be too far back to make a winning run.When you know what style the track has and the #range of winners for the track,you can eliminate horses that look fast but are not good contenders for the win because they are bucking the trend of the track.
On another note Synergism not only uses TPR but it also uses the projection method the adjust the ratings for the PP.Helps for picking winners sometimes,but takes away from contenders for exotics.Hit or miss depending on how good the program has assigned a varient.I didn't like it,so I still do my # by hand.