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VigorsTheGrey
11-25-2017, 11:45 PM
What was up with Mike Smith ride today in the Jimmy Durante at Del Mar...did he really have to take Fatale Bere right up to MAKE THE PACE...? Just to fold it all up at the top of the stretch...?

https://www.dmtc.com/racing/race-replays/2017/11/25/GPDwrJwr9Ng

And how about the ride Alex Canchari gave with Promises Fulfilled in the Kentucky Jockey Club today at Churchill, did he really have to choke hold that horse like that...Just wondering....

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/cd/2017/11/25/11/kentucky-jockey-club-s-g2

PS...I hope jockey Frankie Pennington is okay...anybody hear anything...?

GMB@BP
11-26-2017, 12:35 AM
It is very tough at Del Mar from the outside, probably as bad as say Saratoga inner, you either take back to dead last or you go. They set reasonable fractions but that horse I guess doesnt want that style. I just autotoss usually about 11 and out, its safer then guessing if they can get a good trip, especially at 4/1.

VigorsTheGrey
11-26-2017, 01:07 AM
It is very tough at Del Mar from the outside, probably as bad as say Saratoga inner, you either take back to dead last or you go. They set reasonable fractions but that horse I guess doesnt want that style. I just autotoss usually about 11 and out, its safer then guessing if they can get a good trip, especially at 4/1.

He broke well enough and could have easily settled in 3rd, fourth, or fifth in the 3 path all the way...the horse is such a good closer, just don't understand...go great guns with good closer then just fold....not a good strategy....that horse has had 2 not so great trips now...too bad.

GMB@BP
11-26-2017, 11:17 AM
He broke well enough and could have easily settled in 3rd, fourth, or fifth in the 3 path all the way...the horse is such a good closer, just don't understand...go great guns with good closer then just fold....not a good strategy....that horse has had 2 not so great trips now...too bad.

just more value the next race!

Spalding No!
11-26-2017, 11:42 AM
He broke well enough and could have easily settled in 3rd, fourth, or fifth in the 3 path all the way...the horse is such a good closer, just don't understand...go great guns with good closer then just fold....not a good strategy....that horse has had 2 not so great trips now...too bad.
That filly seemed difficult to get to settle, Smith appeared to have his hands full. Maybe if he found a spot to tuck in behind horses she would have simmered down. With the outside post and nothing but daylight in front of her, she was intent on making the lead. Some of those Euro imports get a little "speed crazy" after a taste of North American pace.

Hopefully its just a one-race problem for Fatale Bere.

Mulerider
11-26-2017, 03:00 PM
He broke well enough and could have easily settled in 3rd, fourth, or fifth in the 3 path all the way...the horse is such a good closer, just don't understand...go great guns with good closer then just fold....not a good strategy....that horse has had 2 not so great trips now...too bad.

Food for thought: Back on Oct. 28 at SA, Race 9, G2 Twilight Derby, 1 1/8 on turf, Mike Smith sent Profiteer, a closer, straight to the lead. Dueled, faded in the stretch, ended 5th.

As of that date, Smith's 2017 overall win rate was 25%, highest of any jock in the field. However, on turf it was 15%, third lowest out of eleven jocks. To compare with others in that race, Desormeaux was 20% overall, 19% on turf. Gary Stevens was 19% overall, 20% on turf. Nakatani 18% / 17%; F. Geroux 19% / 18%.

Make of that what you will, but I'm keeping it in mind for future reference!

Mule

GMB@BP
11-26-2017, 03:08 PM
Food for thought: Back on Oct. 28 at SA, Race 9, G2 Twilight Derby, 1 1/8 on turf, Mike Smith sent Profiteer, a closer, straight to the lead. Dueled, faded in the stretch, ended 5th.

As of that date, Smith's 2017 overall win rate was 25%, highest of any jock in the field. However, on turf it was 15%, third lowest out of nine jocks. To compare with others in that race, Desormeaux was 20% overall, 19% on turf. Gary Stevens was 19% overall, 20% on turf. Nakatani 18% / 17%; F. Geroux 19% / 18%.

Make of that what you will, but I'm keeping it in mind for future reference!

Mule

While certainly there are strengths with every rider I would be a bit careful with that type of handicapping value as some of it comes down to the barns that they are in on that circuit, if you ride for baffert your likely to have better dirt horses that the horses you pick up in turf events, conversely if you ride for D'Amato a lot your likely to have better turf mounts.

Mulerider
11-26-2017, 03:24 PM
While certainly there are strengths with every rider I would be a bit careful with that type of handicapping value as some of it comes down to the barns that they are in on that circuit, if you ride for baffert your likely to have better dirt horses that the horses you pick up in turf events, conversely if you ride for D'Amato a lot your likely to have better turf mounts.

I don't disagree with that. Jock stats are part of my equation but not a major component. I do take notice, though, when a jock changes a horse's running style. Unfortunately there's no way to know if the decision was made in consultation with the trainer, or if the jock made the decision on the fly.