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maddog42
11-22-2017, 08:42 PM
With the percent of favorites winning in the low 40's nowadays.....does anyone have handy the percent of favorites finishing out of the money?

dnlgfnk
11-22-2017, 10:39 PM
With the percent of favorites winning in the low 40's nowadays.....does anyone have handy the percent of favorites finishing out of the money?

Thought one of the databasers would have responded. In roughly 2012, favorites out about 31% of the time...

http://agameofskill.com/how-well-do-horse-racing-favorites-perform/

Couldn't have dropped much in 5 years...maybe 29 or 30 % out of the money?

sjk
11-23-2017, 10:15 AM
This year favorites winning at 38.5% and in the money 74.25%.

TheOracle
11-23-2017, 11:15 AM
With the percent of favorites winning in the low 40's nowadays.....does anyone have handy the percent of favorites finishing out of the money?

Hey Maddog

I can only speak to NYC racing and I have only been looking at the Morning Line Favorites so you have to take it with a grain of salt

However, from what I’ve seen at Aqueduct since January 1st 2017 up until yesterday the Morning Line Favorites that were less than 3-1 won at 32.9% they were in the money at 72.1% which means they were out of the money at 27.9%


ML Odds Strts 1st 2nds 3rds Win % Win $ Cost Return % Return
lt 3-1 755 249 162 134 32.9% $1302.2 $1510 $-207.8 -14%

WPS % WPS $ Cost Return % Rtrn Shw $
72.1% $3900 $4530 $-630 -14% 1318.3


The average win price was slightly over $5.20

Let me know if this helps

Aner
11-24-2017, 09:49 AM
David Schwartz showed the following data in his book "Percentages and Probabilities, 2012". Based on 309,709 races:

Morning line favorite = 31.7%
2nd morning line fav = 20.6%
3rd morning line fav = 14.8%

On the board-- top 3 = 67.1%

Whosonfirst
11-24-2017, 10:06 AM
I thought the OP was talking about Post Time favorites and not ML fav's. The research I've done showed PT favorites in 2012 at 35% for all tracks in USA. In 2016 it was reported that all races at all tracks in US at 36.6%, but 10 tracks were up over 40% and a larger number of tracks up to 38.5%. I'd think the increase of winning favorites is related to diminishing field sizes more than the public being sharper.

Aner
11-24-2017, 10:54 AM
I thought the OP was talking about Post Time favorites and not ML fav's. The research I've done showed PT favorites in 2012 at 35% for all tracks in USA. In 2016 it was reported that all races at all tracks in US at 36.6%, but 10 tracks were up over 40% and a larger number of tracks up to 38.5%. I'd think the increase of winning favorites is related to diminishing field sizes more than the public being sharper.

Sorry. David also covered the actual favorites. Again for 309,709 races:

Actual favorite= 36.3%
second favorite= 21.7%
--third favorite = 14.7%

On board top 3 = 72.7%

maddog42
11-24-2017, 12:20 PM
Thanks guys. I really appreciate it. I've been looking at patterns of when favorites might run out of the money. This really helps.

davew
11-24-2017, 01:21 PM
I think a further breakdown by total betting interests in the race would be of interest, as I assume favorites do better in 5 horse races than favorites in 10 horse races.

Redboard
11-24-2017, 05:59 PM
Some sports writer for a now defunct NJ newspaper once wrote that at Garden State park, he used to always bet the favorite to show, when he was a teenager, and once lost 22 in a row. Not sure if he was exaggerating. It seems like a lot.

cj
11-26-2017, 02:28 PM
Sorry. David also covered the actual favorites. Again for 309,709 races:

Actual favorite= 36.3%
second favorite= 21.7%
--third favorite = 14.7%

On board top 3 = 72.7%

As sjk shows, already up to 74.25%, and will probably keep trending upwards with the path sport is currently on.

cj
11-26-2017, 02:29 PM
Some sports writer for a now defunct NJ newspaper once wrote that at Garden State park, he used to always bet the favorite to show, when he was a teenager, and once lost 22 in a row. Not sure if he was exaggerating. It seems like a lot.

I find that one impossible to believe if he were playing every race.

Poindexter
11-26-2017, 05:49 PM
The place and show stats as well as the 2nd and 3rd favorite stats are fairly similar and the numbers are fairly close to what they should be.. Assuming the favorite wins 36% of the time there is a 64% chance it will lose. Of that 64% chance there should be a .36 *.64 chance he beats the rest of the field and comes 2nd. So he should come 2nd 23.04% of the time. So there is a 59.04% chance he should come 1st or 2nd so if he doesn’t he should have a .36*.4096 chance of running 3rd or a 14.75% chance of running 3rd. Thus when the favorite wins 36% of the time he should run 2nd 23.04 % of the time and he should run 3rd 14.75% of the time. SJK has the winning favorites winning 38.5% of races(which should mean they come second 23.68 % and that they come 3rd 14.68%. So 38.5% winning favorites should mean 76.88% itm% and he shows only a 74.25% itm%, so a couple percent was lost. I would attribute that to the win only nature of some of the favorites(horses that can easily win, but can also easily run off the board).

With 2nd favorites and 3rd favorites the assumption would be that the favorite win % would transfer over to the 2nd favorite beating the 3rd favorite and the 3rd favorite beating the rest of the field. If that is the case on average over all the races then the numbers for 2nd favorites winning would be the same as the number for 1st favorites coming 2nd and the number of 3rd favorites winning would be the same as favorites coming 3rd.This could be a faulty assumption, but from the numbers presented in this thread it doesn’t seem to be too far off.

Obviously venue and field size is going to play a huge part in percentage of winning favorites . Some tracks card bigger fields and competitive racing others have parades of obvious 6 horse fields.

Robert Fischer
11-26-2017, 08:34 PM
I find that one impossible to believe if he were playing every race.

using the 67.1% ITM, the max. consecutive probable losses = 8

if we use 50% to cut some slack for era difference and random race selection = 13

In order for the max. probable consecutive losses to be 22, the hit% would equal 34% (which is closer to typical favorite win% than ITM)


so, yea, he was improbably unlucky if true, or story was conflated with consecutive losing favorites.

pandy
11-28-2017, 06:29 PM
The place and show stats as well as the 2nd and 3rd favorite stats are fairly similar and the numbers are fairly close to what they should be.. Assuming the favorite wins 36% of the time there is a 64% chance it will lose. Of that 64% chance there should be a .36 *.64 chance he beats the rest of the field and comes 2nd. So he should come 2nd 23.04% of the time. So there is a 59.04% chance he should come 1st or 2nd so if he doesn’t he should have a .36*.4096 chance of running 3rd or a 14.75% chance of running 3rd. Thus when the favorite wins 36% of the time he should run 2nd 23.04 % of the time and he should run 3rd 14.75% of the time. SJK has the winning favorites winning 38.5% of races(which should mean they come second 23.68 % and that they come 3rd 14.68%. So 38.5% winning favorites should mean 76.88% itm% and he shows only a 74.25% itm%, so a couple percent was lost. I would attribute that to the win only nature of some of the favorites(horses that can easily win, but can also easily run off the board).

With 2nd favorites and 3rd favorites the assumption would be that the favorite win % would transfer over to the 2nd favorite beating the 3rd favorite and the 3rd favorite beating the rest of the field. If that is the case on average over all the races then the numbers for 2nd favorites winning would be the same as the number for 1st favorites coming 2nd and the number of 3rd favorites winning would be the same as favorites coming 3rd.This could be a faulty assumption, but from the numbers presented in this thread it doesn’t seem to be too far off.

Obviously venue and field size is going to play a huge part in percentage of winning favorites . Some tracks card bigger fields and competitive racing others have parades of obvious 6 horse fields.

59% running first or second seems kind of high, I usually expect it to be about 55%. Does anyone have any stats on how many times the favorite places? (finishes either first or second).

Someone called me the other day asked me how to bet longshots, he said he bets win and place. I said you shouldn't bet a longshot to place, you're better off betting it to win and boxing it with the favorite in an exacta. If your longshot finishes second, half of the time you'll hit the exacta. Sometimes the exacta will pay very well if you are betting a 20-1 shot. The exacta payoffs more than compensate for the times your longshot finishes second and the favorite doesn't place.

jocko699
11-28-2017, 07:30 PM
59% running first or second seems kind of high, I usually expect it to be about 55%. Does anyone have any stats on how many times the favorite places? (finishes either first or second).

Someone called me the other day asked me how to bet longshots, he said he bets win and place. I said you shouldn't bet a longshot to place, you're better off betting it to win and boxing it with the favorite in an exacta. If your longshot finishes second, half of the time you'll hit the exacta. Sometimes the exacta will pay very well if you are betting a 20-1 shot. The exacta payoffs more than compensate for the times your longshot finishes second and the favorite doesn't place.

Great advice!!!!! Thanks

o_crunk
11-28-2017, 07:57 PM
With the percent of favorites winning in the low 40's nowadays.....does anyone have handy the percent of favorites finishing out of the money?

Through this morning, all t-bred races in the US:

34,923 favorites. 9,570 out of the top 3 by official position. 27.4% out of the money.

exactatom
11-28-2017, 08:14 PM
With the advent of the dime super and 50 cent tri, if I like a long shot, then I bet him to win.

I also key him to run second behind the favorite in a super with 4 4 horses on the 3rd line and 4 horses on the 4th line.

ex. Fav over my longshot over 1,2,3,4 over 1,2,3,4

It costs about the same as a exacta favorite over longshot, but sets you up for my higher payouts.

CincyHorseplayer
11-28-2017, 11:24 PM
With the advent of the dime super and 50 cent tri, if I like a long shot, then I bet him to win.

I also key him to run second behind the favorite in a super with 4 4 horses on the 3rd line and 4 horses on the 4th line.

ex. Fav over my longshot over 1,2,3,4 over 1,2,3,4

It costs about the same as a exacta favorite over longshot, but sets you up for my higher payouts.

Because on turf my top 2 choices run 1-3 or 1-4 so much as opposed to a high 1-2 rate on dirt I hedge in this manner to because of the denominations on those bets. Lot of leverage there.

Redboard
11-30-2017, 03:05 PM
using the 67.1% ITM, the max. consecutive probable losses = 8

if we use 50% to cut some slack for era difference and random race selection = 13

In order for the max. probable consecutive losses to be 22, the hit% would equal 34% (which is closer to typical favorite win% than ITM)


so, yea, he was improbably unlucky if true, or story was conflated with consecutive losing favorites.

But what if he played 1000 consecutive races? Not sure I know what you mean by "the max. consecutive probable losses." It's probably a little over my math-challenged head.

But I know if you flip a coin 7 times, the odds of getting 7 heads or 7 tails, right off the bat, are very low. Something like 2 out of 128. But if you flip a coins 100 times the probability of getting seven consecutive hears or tails, is something like 9 out of 10.

Maybe there's a math whiz here could tell us how many consecutive times you have to flip a coin where the probability of getting 22 straight heads (where the crooked coin is weighted to show up heads only 33% of the time) is, say, 50%.

sjk
11-30-2017, 05:16 PM
I have the favorite first or second at a 60.4% rate this year.

It is not surprising that the percent in the money plus the percent out of the money exceeds 100% due to co-favorites and entries running both in and out of the money.

A more careful calculation might give partial credit for those but I have not done so.

Robert Fischer
11-30-2017, 06:00 PM
Not sure I know what you mean by "the max. consecutive probable losses."
Just means the most times that it would 'make sense' that you could lose in a row.


But I know if you flip a coin 7 times, the odds of getting 7 heads or 7 tails, right off the bat, are very low. Something like 2 out of 128. But if you flip a coins 100 times the probability of getting seven consecutive hears or tails, is something like 9 out of 10.

The figures I gave were for 10,000 events.

As you decrease the number of events (e.g. 1,000), the maximum consecutive probable losses, also decreases.

So if you flipped a fair coin 10,000 times, you may lose as many as 13 times in a row. Or if you flipped a fair coin only 100 times, '7' is the most you should lose in a row.

These are just the 'maximum'. You could have several bad losing streaks over a series of races.

And that's about as specific as my excel sheet formula gets. I'm not a mathematician.
If you were making a betting system, you'd probably want to know stuff like "What is the max. consec losses in any given 20, 30, 40,... race block", to account for stuff like a losing near your max and finally winning and then starting another streak...
It can get very complicated, fast.

Kelly criterion is really the measure that you want to work from when looking at a system, but something like the max consec losses is fun probability stuff and can be eye-opening.

ultracapper
11-30-2017, 11:50 PM
If I understand the OP's inquiry correctly, s/he's asking, in a broken down manner, the percentage:

PTF wins
+
PTF places
+
PTF shows
equals
PTF ITM

Bold Red is the info requested, if I'm reading it right.

I don't think that has been answered yet, though I may have missed it in there somewhere.

AndyC
12-01-2017, 12:20 AM
The percentages are meaningless without the average price of the favorite. I doubt that the winning percentage of favorites would go up without a corresponding decrease in the average odds.