PDA

View Full Version : Success with new system at Aqueduct today


bigeastbeast
11-22-2017, 04:54 PM
I eliminated the MSW and the Allowance race,leaving 7 playable.

I waited until 5 minutes to post,then checked the odds with the ML.If a horse moved into the top three on the board from not being it on the ML-and it was the only horse that did so-it became the play.If no horse did it,then the play was the horse that had fallen the furthest in odds from the ML from the top three ML choices.

The result was 4 winners and all 7 places,a ROI of 86 per cent,betting equal amounts to win and place.

Better yet,the non-maiden claimers won all 4 of their races.The maidens failed to win but still showed a small profit.Perhaps betting place only on them could be a better course.

Sure,it's a small sample size and from only one track but it's simple and still impressive.I'll have to try it out on Turfway next week.

DeltaLover
11-22-2017, 05:07 PM
I eliminated the MSW and the Allowance race,leaving 7 playable.

I waited until 5 minutes to post,then checked the odds with the ML.If a horse moved into the top three on the board from not being it on the ML-and it was the only horse that did so-it became the play.If no horse did it,then the play was the horse that had fallen the furthest in odds from the ML from the top three ML choices.

The result was 4 winners and all 7 places,a ROI of 86 per cent,betting equal amounts to win and place.

Better yet,the non-maiden claimers won all 4 of their races.The maidens failed to win but still showed a small profit.Perhaps betting place only on them could be a better course.

Sure,it's a small sample size and from only one track but it's simple and still impressive.I'll have to try it out on Turfway next week.

Really smart system! Keep up the good work :headbanger:

RunForTheRoses
11-22-2017, 08:49 PM
I wish you luck but today was off the turf and sloppy. Poor sample size.

Franco Santiago
11-22-2017, 09:12 PM
I eliminated the MSW and the Allowance race,leaving 7 playable.

I waited until 5 minutes to post,then checked the odds with the ML.If a horse moved into the top three on the board from not being it on the ML-and it was the only horse that did so-it became the play.If no horse did it,then the play was the horse that had fallen the furthest in odds from the ML from the top three ML choices.

The result was 4 winners and all 7 places,a ROI of 86 per cent,betting equal amounts to win and place.

Better yet,the non-maiden claimers won all 4 of their races.The maidens failed to win but still showed a small profit.Perhaps betting place only on them could be a better course.

Sure,it's a small sample size and from only one track but it's simple and still impressive.I'll have to try it out on Turfway next week.

Let me see if I understand this correctly...the process is:

1. Look at morning line, observe the top three based on the line.

2. Look at the tote board at 5 MTP, compare odds on tote with morning line.

3. If a horse that was NOT the top 3 in the morning line is now in the top 3 in the betting, it is a bet, IF it was the only horse to drop into the top 3 in the betting.

4. If no horse dropped to the top 3 from NOT being in the top 3 in the morning line, play the horse that has fallen the furthest in odds FROM it's original morning line odds.

Would this be correct?

You are going to have to watch out for false or misleading morning lines due to scratches.

In essence, it seems, that what you are trying do is "watch the tote for potentially telling action". You use the morning line as a reference point. The theory, I guess, would be that the action would indicate that the horse's probability of winning is greater than the odds reflect; that is, you are hoping that the action indicates a horse that is very live, BUT that the action STILL won't be reflective of the horse's true probability of winning.

In general, this will not be the case. While the action MIGHT be indicative of a horse that is ready to run a good race, the probability of winning will still not be high enough relative to the odds you are getting to yield a long term profit. In other words, there is RARELY a big enough discrepancy between the odds you are being "given" and the probability of winning for you to profit from the bet in the long run. The reason this is so is because players are sharp these days...there isn't enough dead money to overcome the takeout. BUT, you might still have a lot of fun doing it AND the fun you have could very well be worth the price you are paying to have it.

Please do continue to post results whether or not you bet!

Clocker
11-22-2017, 10:26 PM
Sure,it's a small sample size and from only one track but it's simple and still impressive.I'll have to try it out on Turfway next week.

I am not familiar with Turfway, but it appears to be the type of track with significant simulcast handle.

My experience with such tracks is that odds at 5 minutes to post are meaningless. Typically, I have found that the total WPS pools as shown on the tote board as the horses are loading (minutes past the official post time) are a half, and at times a third, of the final pools.

JohnGalt1
11-27-2017, 08:00 PM
William L. Scott's first book's method was to only the handicap the top 3 betting favorites, since they win about 67% of the time and use form, pace and speed for the prime bet.

He later wrote other books where he didn't limit his choices to just 3 horses.

The major problem with his first book and your method is ADW's who lay off most of their bets very late sometimes changing the makeup of top 3 favorites.

When he wrote his book in the 70's he used his method at the track before off track betting, and sometimes he had to change his top three before he went to the window.

castaway01
11-28-2017, 08:32 AM
Thank God you have a new system, I was waiting for someone to come up with one of those because I don't nearly enough direct mail ads anymore.

n.c
11-29-2017, 07:12 PM
check the ml, then try to see if one of those horses is the one i picked
example-- look at 3-4 that is not the fav and see if any of the horses have gone down on prices and try to key those horses.

MSW droppers to mcl, if you have 3 msw droppers, the one that is dropping the most, will be my key horse. ( non fav ml horse)

DGroundhog
12-03-2017, 02:39 PM
I don't know if I would rely on that as a betting system, but I do exercises like this at times. Usually betting smaller amounts and longer odds. Simple things like no horse at less than 4-1 odds in my tickets.

Still, you have to look at the horses (caught one last night at a G1 in JPN just because he looked so impressive) jockeys (Ryan Moore was riding), judge their form, fitness and if the odds reflect a true chance of the horse winning. You could miss out on winners that may have otherwise stood out to you because your arbitrary rule eliminated the horse.

It's smart to watch the odds and even exotic probables/willpays to see where value can be found. If DBL/PK3/PK4 payoffs are similar for a group of horses their odds should be similar. I like to see who the early money was bet on at the first click of live odds and what happens in the last few minutes of betting.

Whosonfirst
12-04-2017, 06:14 PM
I don't know if I would rely on that as a betting system, but I do exercises like this at times. Usually betting smaller amounts and longer odds. Simple things like no horse at less than 4-1 odds in my tickets.

Still, you have to look at the horses (caught one last night at a G1 in JPN just because he looked so impressive) jockeys (Ryan Moore was riding), judge their form, fitness and if the odds reflect a true chance of the horse winning. You could miss out on winners that may have otherwise stood out to you because your arbitrary rule eliminated the horse.

It's smart to watch the odds and even exotic probables/willpays to see where value can be found. If DBL/PK3/PK4 payoffs are similar for a group of horses their odds should be similar. I like to see who the early money was bet on at the first click of live odds and what happens in the last few minutes of betting.
Smart post.