View Full Version : Let's handicap the Fall Highweight

11-22-2017, 02:24 PM
It's the TimeformUS Race of the Day for Thursday.

https://timeformus.com/basicpps/231389/2124147 (https://timeformus.com/basicpps/231389/2124147)

:1: Great Stuff (12-1) - This is an improved horse. The Oct. 22 "flop" is forgivable because of the glacial pace and poor break. Is the improvement enough to win this though? Will he get enough pace from behind? Maybe.

:2: Hey Jabber Jaw (20-1) - Taking a horse who gave up the lead after 23 and 46 fractions for a 6F race is tough. He will get no breaks with Green Gratto here.

:3: Stallwalkin' Dude (2-1) - While he is the best horse, he received a wonderful pace setup in the Bold Ruler and failed to finish the job. He also had dead aim on Takaful in the Vosburgh. He does not seem invincible, but must be considered.

:4: Threefiveindia (5-1) - The Phoenix did not look too strong, even though Limousine Liberal came back to win against tomato cans at Churchill Downs. Despite the excellent trainer/jockey team (Brown/Castellano), inclined to pass.

:5: Schivarelli (20-1) - Is he really running here? He just won a few days ago. Any horse that is claimed four times in a row must be healthy and feeling well. With that said, this is a tougher group of horses. Inclined to pass as well.

:6: Green Gratto (8-1) - Wow, is that a 130 TimeformUS Speed Figure? But he's done 130+ speed figures before and failed to repeat it each time. Skeptical.

:7: Life in Shambles (12-1) - The pace could not have been any more glacial in the Oct. 22 race. He won though. Possibly a trifecta factor.

:8: Ready for Rye (10-1) - Just *too slow for Grade I horses, although he tends to pick up checks at this level. Note, he ran third in this same race last year, and owns a win over Life in Shambles back in June.

:9: Seymourdini (5/2) - Is he running here? Read somewhere that he's scratching for the Cigar Mile. An obvious factor if the connections do change their mind and stick with the Fall Highweight.


Interested to see if Great Stuff can keep moving forward. He's my tentative pick for now, but someone needs to go with Green Gratto early.

11-22-2017, 08:01 PM
I'll probably bet Green Gratto mostly because of how well he runs on the Aqueduct main track. I guess it is supposedly different this year, but if can get 6-1 or more I'll take a shot.

11-22-2017, 08:23 PM
I'll probably bet Green Gratto mostly because of how well he runs on the Aqueduct main track. I guess it is supposedly different this year, but if can get 6-1 or more I'll take a shot.

Ditto sir:headbanger::headbanger:

11-23-2017, 01:27 AM
Fall High Weight

:1: Great Stuff 12-1 Nice last race, back fast plus a move up in class. One win at the distance against OC competition, tells me he is in the wrong race here. Pass

:2: Hey Jabber Jaw 20-1 Interesting because claimed by a dangerous trainer. Everybody can see he runs only one way, but he is facing Graded speed here and his speed figures say that he is over his head.

:3: Stallwalkin' Dude 2-1 7 yr old has the class and the figures to win this race. Leads the field in wins at the distance also. The second entry from Jacobson is hard to figure here, best running has been from off the pace, it makes me think that the :1: might be here to make sure the two speeds are pressed into a high pace to set it up for him. Can earn the win, but not my $, betting against.

:4: Threefiveindia 5-1 Brown is the trainer and should take some money. Has never won at the distance, and at this level, that alone eliminates him. Underneath in the tri and supers.

:5: Schivarelli 20-1 Thomas Morley proves why he is 0 for ten at this meet with this entry.

:6: Green Gatto 8-1 Has won at this distance against Graded competition. The last race was an improvement and at 7 furlongs, gets back to his preferred distance and can go wire to wire if the track conditions allow it. Odds will dictate what to do, anything over 5-1 gets a bet. My pick.

:7: Life In Shambles 12-1 Beat the :2: in last, not much of an accomplishment. But right now his figures say that he has very little chance here. Pass

:8: Ready For Rye 10-1 In a different situation would be intriguing. Really could win this race in only a perfect situation but that is highly unlikely. Underneath in the exotics.

:9: Seymourdini 5-2 Dangerous because he has shown to be effective with three different running styles. But has not won at this distance, if this race was at a mile, I would like the horse, but in a sprint at 5-2? No thanks.

11-23-2017, 05:48 AM
:8:Ready for Rye is entered in a 6f turf stakes on Saturday.

11-23-2017, 06:09 AM
Winners profile per BRIS, Aqueduct 6f dirt races this meet:

42% wire to wire
58% E run style
74% E or EP run style

Assuming :8: and :9: scratch, that profile favors :2: and :6:.
:7: can track if they ride him like his last win at AQ
:4: can also track.

Like jay and wastemoney, I am tossing :2: and :4:.

:3: Stallwalkin' Dude is the horse to beat, and probably tough to keep out of exacta, so I'll key box :3: with :6: and :7: and box :3::6::7:.

11-23-2017, 11:09 AM
:1: :2: & :6: battle it out for five furlongs, and :3: & :9: come along to pick up the pieces. I'm going with :9: Seymourdini for his first win at 6f. :9:/:3:/ :6: :1: for exotics.

11-23-2017, 11:44 AM
Looking at wheeling the :8: in an exacta. Win bet at 8-1 or better. I love rooting for Green Gratto but in this spot in the slop I think I'd need 12-1 or better to place a win bet. GL all!

Ex :8:/:1::3::6::7:

11-23-2017, 11:45 AM
:5:and:9: are scratched.
:6: is in and messes up my analysis.

11-23-2017, 11:53 AM
I mean :8: is in.

11-23-2017, 12:03 PM

11-23-2017, 12:13 PM
Rosario now the jock on the :3:, which looks like the winner on paper, though with less speed now the :9: is out, will need a neutral to closing bias to get up. Think the :1: dog has a chance to round out the gimmicks, but not sure there will be enough value in the race.

Still a decent card today at the Big A, though races 4 and 6 are off the turf and have numerous scratches.

Robert Fischer
11-23-2017, 12:20 PM
Stalwalkin Dude is an underlay in the ml, not sure how much value will be there at post time.

:4: (key) should be quick enough early to establish decent position, close enough to the pace to factor. 5/1 ml , you want about 7/2 , but I doubt you will get 7/2.

:2: (long shot add) can Diodoro move this one up enough to contend? Big price, Not good enough on paper. I'd never consider w/out Diodoro.

:8: (long shot add) has a chance to trip out near the pace, and hit the board underneath. Stay out of the fray, sit close and make one of the stretch runners actually fire to pass you...

11-23-2017, 02:13 PM
:3: is going to be 4/5 favorite and barely win.

11-23-2017, 03:12 PM
I'm with CJ on this one, of course...how could I not be? We're talking Green Gratto here...:pound:

My line (with built-in 50% overlay):

:6: Green Gratto 5/2
:3: Stallwalkin' Dude 7/2
:2: Hey Jabber Jaw 13/1

11-23-2017, 03:24 PM
Going to change my original due to track conditions.

I believe it is a cold exacta box of 3,8.

Good luck!!!!

11-23-2017, 03:34 PM
Going to change my original due to track conditions.

I believe it is a cold exacta box of 3,8.

Good luck!!!!Is it favoring closers? I've only watched one race.

11-23-2017, 05:27 PM
Well, it was a boring result for bettors, but Stallwalkin Dude won it.