early derby futures

[Bennie]

First pool opens this week and was looking for a few opinions on the field selected. I know there are many who refuse to wager on these pools especially one this early, but looking for those who enjoy the challenge so please no negative nelly's need apply.:)

[Fred Mertz]

I may put out a few bucks on our local trainer's horses, Dale Romans, and stick them under my fridge magnet so I don't lose them.

I've avoided the Sire Future Wager thus far. I'll be at CD on Thanksgiving for an over-priced meal. But hey, I don't have family here.

Folks call it a sucker bet; I cashed once when I took the field years ago for a minor score. I look at it as having some skin in the game, and it keeps my attention focused on the future.

A few 20 dollar bills may net you hundreds...or not.

[Bennie]

good luck with Romans horses as I believe he has yet to win a Derby despite being one of the top trainers on the Kentucky circuit. I am initially looking at Montauk and not eliminating Bolt d'oro yet as he had a less than ideal trip in the breeders cup race. I haven't seen any past performance sheets yet but try to look for e/p and p type runners with at least 16 dosage points and some closing ability. I can say that I am still playing on Giacomo futures monies as far as the futures wagers go. Not so much the rest of the time.:(

[VigorsTheGrey]

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/224842/initial-2018-derby-future-wager-nov-23-26

[VigorsTheGrey]

# Wagering Interest Morning
Line Odds
1 Avery Island 30-1
2 Bolt d’Oro 10-1
3 Copper Bullet 30-1
4 Dak Attack 30-1
5 Engage 20-1
6 Enticed 30-1
7 Firenze Fire 20-1
8 Free Drop Billy 20-1
9 Givemeaminit 50-1
10 Good Magic 8-1
11 Gotta Go 30-1
12 Lone Sailor 50-1
13 Mask 30-1
14 McKinzie 20-1
15 Mendelssohn 30-1
16 Montauk 20-1
17 Principe Guilherme 20-1
18 Quip 30-1
19 Solomini 15-1
20 Sporting Chance 20-1
21 Talent Scout 30-1
22 Tiz Mischief 50-1
23 Untamed Domain 20-1
24 Mutuel Field
(All Others) 7-5

Future Wager Pool 1 (SIRES)
# Wagering Interest Morning
Line Odds
1 Bernardini 20-1
2 Bodemeister 20-1
3 Candy Ride (ARG) 20-1
4 Curlin 8-1
5 Distorted Humor 20-1
6 Ghostzapper 20-1
7 Giant’s Causeway 30-1
8 Into Mischief 20-1
9 Malibu Moon 30-1
10 Medaglia d’Oro 12-1
11 More Than Ready 20-1
12 Overanalyze 30-1
13 Pioneerof the Nile 20-1
14 Quality Road 20-1
15 Scat Daddy 20-1
16 Speightstown 20-1
17 Street Sense 15-1
18 Tapit 10-1
19 Tiznow 20-1
20 Uncle Mo 20-1
21 Union Rags 30-1
22 Violence 30-1
23 War Front 15-1
24 Mutuel Field
(All Others) 4-1

[VigorsTheGrey]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/HorseCenter/HorseCenter_Kentucky_Derby_2018_First_Contenders_L ist_123

[VigorsTheGrey]

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/Future_Wager_Pool_1_2017_FINAL.pdf

[Bennie]

Thanks for the past performances Vigors. Just printed them out and will do some "studying" later tonight or in the morning.:ThmbUp:

[PowerUpPaynter]

I like the exactas here. Avery island, Bolt d'oro, Montauk, and the field.

Will be interesting to watch the sire pool as Medaglia d'Oro gives you Bolt d'Oro, Montauk, and Enticed...



Good info here: www.DerbyPowerRankings.com

[VigorsTheGrey]

https://www.twinspires.com/blog/2017/11/22/scouting-report-pool-1-2018-kentucky-derby-future-wager

[Afleet]

The sire bet seems more interesting to me than the individual horse play

[Fred Mertz]

#4, 8, 22 (Dak Attack, Free Drop Billy, Tiz Mischief)

$20, 20, 10

Dale Romans runners. I know I have two losers, but I'll keep an eye on them in the coming weeks and months.

I'll have a thousand dollars of fun for fifty. That's the way I look at it.

Got the parimutuel clerk to put them on one ticket and it's under one of my fridge magnets. I won't likely play anything else until Derby Day.

[Parkview_Pirate]

First pool opens this week and was looking for a few opinions on the field selected. I know there are many who refuse to wager on these pools especially one this early, but looking for those who enjoy the challenge so please no negative nelly's need apply.:)

I only play the first future pool, unless my horse gets knocked out. Then I might play a horse in the second pool. After that, it's harder to find value, unless you think a contender tossed in a clunker with an excuse. But since that can translate to longer odds on Derby Day, you don't have to take on the risk of a future bet.

This year the horse I'll select (err, jinx) is :6: Enticed.

Based on breeding and the PPs, I also think the :1::4::10::14::17: could be part of the picture next May.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Montauk is getting hammered.

What about Prince Guirhelme and Talent Scout. Any odds worth wagering upon?

[VigorsTheGrey]

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager

Pedigree Search Tool
http://www.pedigreequery.com/photos/wonder+beach

[Bennie]

just got back home with my pool #1 wagers in hand. Took a shot with the field boxed with Bolt and Montauk and a sire box of Medaglia,Street Sense and Tapit. That gives me Avery, Bolt, Enticed, Mask, McKinzie, Montauk and Principe with any other that makes makes the field by Derby Day. Put them away and forget about them till May. Will wait till closing bell Sunday to see if the prices are right for a straight bet on Bolt or Montauk, if not I will sit on what I have.

[jocko699]

Made a win bet on Tiz Mischief at 50-1 after his race at CD.

[Bennie]

Jocko - you are in it with Fred Mertz. He played Dale Roman's horses. Still looking for his first Derby win but this could be the year. Still have an eye out for Free Drop Billy to see if he can rebound from that poor race at the Breeders. Will wait for his next race and future pools before making a final decision on him. Good luck with Tiz Mischief. I did bet him in the race today.

[olddaddy]

Everytime i see derby futures I think about this. I assume these odds are parimutuel each time and the take is like 17.5%. Then since not all the horses run in the derby, the money bet on these horses doesn't increase the odds of horses that actually do run. So all that money goes into to Churchills pocket. The take on these bets have to be enormous.

[rastajenk]

I don't think you're on the right path, dad. Every pool has a winner, even if it's the #24 All the Rest selection. A 50-1 shot in Pool 1 that doesn't make it to the Derby pays the same as a 15-1 shot in Pool 1 that does get to the Derby but does not win: $0.00; the $$ on the 50-1 still get pari-mutuelly redistributed to those with the winning number.

[olddaddy]

rastajenk, I guess I didnt think it out correctly, thanks.

[exactatom]

Mendelsohn

[Fred Mertz]

Racing without blinkers, Karl Watson, Mike Pegram, and Paul Weitman's McKinzie was the consummate professional in Saturday's Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. The 3-year-old son of Street Sense sat off the pace under Mike Smith, then drew even with the frontrunner All Out Blitz at the head of the lane. McKinzie, named for long-time Los Alamitos executive Brad McKinzie, pulled away with ease and crossed the wire 3 1/2 lengths in front while well in-hand. The Bob Baffert trainee covered one mile over the fast main track in 1:36.58, earning 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/undefeated-mckinzie-professional-hand-sham-victory/

Derby prep race today. 10 Derby points to the winner.

[jocko699]

Racing without blinkers, Karl Watson, Mike Pegram, and Paul Weitman's McKinzie was the consummate professional in Saturday's Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. The 3-year-old son of Street Sense sat off the pace under Mike Smith, then drew even with the frontrunner All Out Blitz at the head of the lane. McKinzie, named for long-time Los Alamitos executive Brad McKinzie, pulled away with ease and crossed the wire 3 1/2 lengths in front while well in-hand. The Bob Baffert trainee covered one mile over the fast main track in 1:36.58, earning 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/undefeated-mckinzie-professional-hand-sham-victory/

Derby prep race today. 10 Derby points to the winner.

I am very cautious with McKinzie on being able to race at longer distances. I believe he may be limited due to this as far as a classic horse and would tread carefully IMO.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I am very cautious with McKinzie on being able to race at longer distances. I believe he may be limited due to this as far as a classic horse and would tread carefully IMO.
Wasn't much of a field he beat either, especially with the defection of Mourino...Wonder if Baffert planned to pulled him all the time or what his decision to pull Mourino was based on...Mourino will probably pop-up somewhere soon...

Seems like Bob gets into this situation each year before the Derby....Lots of good horses that you don't necessarily want to run against each other because you want BOTH TO WIN for the good of their respective owners and records....

[Bennie]

Don't have my Derby papers in front of me. Don't dig them out till May but I recall that no horse has ever won the derby with an equipment change as a 3 year old. That withstanding, I don't think McKinzie is bred for the distance anyway and will have to prove me wrong before I back him.

[jocko699]

Wasn't much of a field he beat either, especially with the defection of Mourino...Wonder if Baffert planned to pulled him all the time or what his decision to pull Mourino was based on...Mourino will probably pop-up somewhere soon...

Seems like Bob gets into this situation each year before the Derby....Lots of good horses that you don't necessarily want to run against each other because you want BOTH TO WIN for the good of their respective owners and records....

VTG,

While I am reluctant to think McKinzie will get the "classic" distances I still believe he has ALOT of talent. The limit to his ability may be a one-turn mile such as the Met mile. He may even be a future BC sprinter is he stays healthy.

[dilanesp]

I don't think you're on the right path, dad. Every pool has a winner, even if it's the #24 All the Rest selection. A 50-1 shot in Pool 1 that doesn't make it to the Derby pays the same as a 15-1 shot in Pool 1 that does get to the Derby but does not win: $0.00; the $$ on the 50-1 still get pari-mutuelly redistributed to those with the winning number.

There actually IS a reason why the pari-mutuel futures pools are worse than an ordinary pari-mutuel bet, but it isn't due to horses not making it to the Derby. Rather, it's the time value of money. Essentially, when you bet in the November pool, you are giving Churchill Downs a six month interest free loan with your money. The later pools are shorter interest free loans. Whatever rate of return you can make on that money, you are giving it up and giving that return to Churchill-- and you have to add that to the takeout.

Every bookie in the world makes extra money on futures wagers because of this aspect.

[Bennie]

I don't think they are going to get rich on my $10 from the November but I do know some people on this site and else where around the country make some rather large bets on the pools. I consider myself a recreational better when it comes to the future pool. I can admit that I have had more horses not make the gate at all then run on the first Saturday in May.

[bpiets]

'i'' rather missed this site...now 'i' will return to same, lol...thanks...:cool:

[Thomas Roulston]

Since there are 24 betting interests, maybe we can add emojis for 21 through 24 on here?

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/Saddle%20Towel%20Colors.pdf

[bpiets]

Since there are 24 betting interests, maybe we can add emojis for 21 through 24 on here?

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/Saddle%20Towel%20Colors.pdf

no. 3...blue / white combo wins this year...lol..:headbanger:

[outofthebox]

Things aren't looking to good for Bolt'Doro. Had a gallop at SA yesterday and looked awful. Hope he somehow can turn the corner on whatever is ailing him..

[Bennie]

it was a pulled muscle I believe. I would think they would want to take it easy and just get the muscles stretched out again before asking too much.

[Bennie]

Was just hopping around the internet and checking to see when the next pool is and I find that when the 3rd pool comes around in March they are going to offer another new wrinkle. They will be offering an Oaks/Derby double futures wager. Thoughts?:confused:

[outofthebox]

Now Ruis fires Nakatani for less than positive remarks following Bolt d' Oros first breeze after his setback. Galloped to the pole very stiff but seemed to stretch out fine leveling off in his breeze..Ruis will put a spin on his decision most likely...