Another Question for Trainer Angle Players

[FortuneHunter]

We are fast approaching the season for layoffs and/or shippers in my neck of the woods (NYRA). Horses that have been off for the winter and the major stables returning from the Gulf and FG winter meets.

Do you think there is a trainer angle here? Do trainers speacialize in this, or is it really individual horse dependent?

Any other signals to help us figure out which layoff and/or shipper is ripe to win?

Thanks, FH

[Bob Harris]

Ed Bain would be the best one to talk to on the subject .

www.edbain.com

He tracks layoffs for individual trainers (1-4 after layoff and separated by S/R).

I had the opportunity to play alongside him a couple of times last year...all of his plays start from a base of 30% winners with a minimum of 4 victories. I was surprised how certain trainers win on a regular basis with layoff horses and also surprised how certain trainers never win off the layoff (good eliminations) but post pretty hefty win percentages with their runners on the 2nd or 3rd start.

Very nice guy...always willing to educate.

[BIG HIT]

Hi guys according to scott mcmannis who writes for horse player magazine.The only trainer stats that are any good are track specfic.There was one at spt that ran thrid frist race yesterday.At 34 to 1.Would never have considered him as going up in class.But his stats said he was good at.So guess he is right when you think about it some trainer use one meet to train for another?and bris/ tsn just have over all stats which are miss leading as a trainer maybe 0 for 14 at gp on the rise.But as for tom swearington for the last 15yr with class rises he is 21 wins 11 seconds of 111 starts 19 of those win were at spt.So guess he is right.Even though the horse above lost ran a good race.And the spd pace were not enough to put him in the tri.Tom only had three wins of his 21 some where else

[rrbauer]

Basically you're dealing with two sets of trainer-dependent issues here.

First issue: Shippers. This mainly covers your horses shipping in from the southern circuits. Laz Barrera (deceased Hall of Fame trainer) used to say that horses shipping into NY from the south in the spring maintained/improved their southern form. Take a look at the charts from last year. In the first couple weeks of the spring AQU meet, where did the competitive horses run their last race?

Second issue: Layups. This covers your horses that haven't raced for several months. There are several sources for trainer-based stats relevant to returns from a layoff. The reference to Ed Bain is good. Even the stats in the DRF past performances cover this and you can get stats in some of the BRIS reports.

As to other issues aside from the trainer stuff you need to concentrate on individual horse attributes. How have they done at various tracks in the past. How have they shipped. Etc.

[FortuneHunter]

I started a new thread entitled "Think Spring". I did several Q's of our Database related to the subjects discussed here: Ship In Trainers, Ship In Tracks, FTS Jockeys, FTS Trainers, Days Off Trainer for Aqueduct Spring Meets over the last three years.

I hope you find them useful

Best Regards, FH

[navrah]

Do any of you subscribe to Ed Bain? I'm looking for one stat that I was hoping you'd help me with...I'm looking at one horse and need one last piece of the puzzle.

If you don't mind..drop me an email at navrah@integraonline.com

Thanks in advance
Paul

[JohnGalt1]

Here's something I do when confronted with long lay-off horses.

I thought, aren't these horses similar to first timers? And for first timers I look up the breeding to see their sire's and dam sire's rating.

After checking breeding on some horses that beat me I found many were bred by A and B sires. One I remember years ago paid $60 that was an A.

I don't blindly bet this, but combine it with trainer stats (90+ days) and using running lines from races after layoffs usually let me know if the horse is a contender.

[Tom]

Originally posted by FortuneHunter
I started a new thread entitled "Think Spring". I did several Q's of our Database related to the subjects discussed here: Ship In Trainers, Ship In Tracks, FTS Jockeys, FTS Trainers, Days Off Trainer for Aqueduct Spring Meets over the last three years.

I hope you find them useful

Best Regards, FH

Where did you strat the thread?

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by jgalt1
Here's something I do when confronted with long lay-off horses.

I thought, aren't these horses similar to first timers? And for first timers I look up the breeding to see their sire's and dam sire's rating.

After checking breeding on some horses that beat me I found many were bred by A and B sires. One I remember years ago paid $60 that was an A.

I don't blindly bet this, but combine it with trainer stats (90+ days) and using running lines from races after layoffs usually let me know if the horse is a contender. This is a good method. A horse's first lifetime start will often indicate how he will run off of long layoffs...

[Fastracehorse]

Fresh dirt routers are becoming a very positive factor.

I've always liked 'quick from the gate' sprinters off a year or more - good over-lays.

Turf routers are dangerous off a year or more.

Works are a helpful hint for a horse coming back- do not have to be bullets.

First-time starters that ran well but haven't raced in 3 months or so I don't like - surgery.

fffastt