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AstrosFan
11-16-2017, 01:08 PM
Interesting stats from the jockey club through 2015 regarding racing dates held at tracks across USA & Canada.

Game is slowly fading boys and girls. People lie, numbers don't

Afleet
11-16-2017, 08:53 PM
Interesting stats from the jockey club through 2015 regarding racing dates held at tracks across USA & Canada.

Game is slowly fading boys and girls. People lie, numbers don't

definitely going the wrong way, but askinhaskin would just say raise the takeout to fix the problem

Fager Fan
11-16-2017, 09:27 PM
Interesting stats from the jockey club through 2015 regarding racing dates held at tracks across USA & Canada.

Game is slowly fading boys and girls. People lie, numbers don't

That isn't a bad thing. We have too much racing. The way to have a better sport is to have a severe contraction, resulting in fewer races with larger fields. Sadly, slots put us on hold before the inevitable contraction. I'd rather we go ahead and face the music and then get on to a smaller and healthier sport.

Road Kill
11-16-2017, 09:59 PM
Looks like there will be fewer race days in Texas next year too...it's not surprising at this point. I'm not sure most of the horsemen even care seeing as TxRc received less than 100 letters opposing the change. If the horsemen/women don't even care then don't see how we can expect bettors and fans to care.

dilanesp
11-16-2017, 10:25 PM
That isn't a bad thing. We have too much racing. The way to have a better sport is to have a severe contraction, resulting in fewer races with larger fields. Sadly, slots put us on hold before the inevitable contraction. I'd rather we go ahead and face the music and then get on to a smaller and healthier sport.

Yep. My only quibble with this is the true central caise of contraction is simulcasting and internet wagering.

Parkview_Pirate
11-17-2017, 02:20 AM
Interesting stats from the jockey club through 2015 regarding racing dates held at tracks across USA & Canada.

Game is slowly fading boys and girls. People lie, numbers don't

The rate of decline, if I'm reading this correctly, has slowed a bit (668 L5 yrs versus 779 previous 5 yrs), but I suppose the using the raw data, the percentages would be pretty close.

Yep. My only quibble with this is the true central caise of contraction is simulcasting and internet wagering.

If by this you mean that simulcasting/internet wagering is allowing players to pick the "higher quality" venues (or even just the tracks they have more success at), I would agree. That's a big part of it, though most states that allow ADW accounts usually skim a portion of the simulcasting/internet handle to support their local racing. (which is a racket, IMHO)

But I also think that contraction has a lot to do with the decline of the economy, and there's just that much less "disposable" money owners have available to spend on a luxury, especially at the lower and local levels of the game.

Contraction may be good for the game, but it's more complicated than just offering fewer races - which does not necessarily equate to larger fields, especially over the long run. The problem needs to be addressed from the rather sticky and complex money side of the equation - where takeout, tax aspects, purses, handle, PR, costs (trainer fees, vet bills, property taxes, etc), competition from other gambling activities, etc., all combine to determine sustainability.

So far, it's apparent that most venues are doing little to "fix" things, though to some degree there may not be a fix.

Prioress Ply
11-17-2017, 02:31 AM
The rate of decline, if I'm reading this correctly, has slowed a bit (668 L5 yrs versus 779 previous 5 yrs), but I suppose the using the raw data, the percentages would be pretty close.



If by this you mean that simulcasting/internet wagering is allowing players to pick the "higher quality" venues (or even just the tracks they have more success at), I would agree. That's a big part of it, though most states that allow ADW accounts usually skim a portion of the simulcasting/internet handle to support their local racing. (which is a racket, IMHO)

But I also think that contraction has a lot to do with the decline of the economy, and there's just that much less "disposable" money owners have available to spend on a luxury, especially at the lower and local levels of the game.

Contraction may be good for the game, but it's more complicated than just offering fewer races - which does not necessarily equate to larger fields, especially over the long run. The problem needs to be addressed from the rather sticky and complex money side of the equation - where takeout, tax aspects, purses, handle, PR, costs (trainer fees, vet bills, property taxes, etc), competition from other gambling activities, etc., all combine to determine sustainability.

So far, it's apparent that most venues are doing little to "fix" things, though to some degree there may not be a fix.

Hahaha. Casino stocks like Churchill Downs (and it is a casino stock) have never done better. CDI has gone from 50 to 200 in the last few years. WYNN is flourishing and so is Penn National. How is that possible if people have no disposable income? The answer is not that gambling is dying. Horse racing is dying.

burnsy
11-17-2017, 01:07 PM
Hahaha. Casino stocks like Churchill Downs (and it is a casino stock) have never done better. CDI has gone from 50 to 200 in the last few years. WYNN is flourishing and so is Penn National. How is that possible if people have no disposable income? The answer is not that gambling is dying. Horse racing is dying.


That's the current case but Americans don't plan economically. We seem to think if something is good, more is better. Its like a disease of spending and greed. That's why we are now in debt up to our ears. Credit, student loans and such for citizens and the govt. can't properly run a lemonade stand......I don't care who these political "wing nuts" elect, the money gets pissed away somewhere. The current regime wants tax cuts and somehow the "invisible hand" is going to make up for the loss in revenue. Its been tried multiple times the math never adds up and we end up with more deficit.

The casinos are getting over saturation too. Its just a matter of time before they suffer the same malaise horse racing is feeling. Here, in NY they are already complaining at certain casinos. The revenue is not matching projections. Gee, I wonder why? They are putting these things on practically every street corner...:lol:. It all looks great at first until the supply out does the demand.

In "show business" the saying is "always leave them wanting more"........In this day and age its "give it to them til they puke, lose interest or "bill it". Look at the state of affairs all around us, reality is not pretty, so there's a ton of denial going on..........we live in USA.....Fantasy, Disney land. At age 55 at least I may not be around when the rude awakening is on our doorstep.

castaway01
11-17-2017, 03:59 PM
That isn't a bad thing. We have too much racing. The way to have a better sport is to have a severe contraction, resulting in fewer races with larger fields. Sadly, slots put us on hold before the inevitable contraction. I'd rather we go ahead and face the music and then get on to a smaller and healthier sport.

It hasn't worked out that way so far. We've had a steady decline in race dates and field size has been largely stagnant because the foal crop has dropped so much. You did say "severe" contraction but I wonder if the economics work anymore no matter how you slice it.

Tom
11-17-2017, 05:20 PM
Losing dates is a good thing.
Racing is diluted today.
We have 80% of the races are pure garbage.
Terrible field across the country, even turf racing has been downgraded to card races for the crap that can't win.

BrentT
11-17-2017, 05:36 PM
Looks like we gained 7 days in Louisiana. :)

Afleet
11-18-2017, 05:35 PM
Hahaha. Casino stocks like Churchill Downs (and it is a casino stock) have never done better. CDI has gone from 50 to 200 in the last few years. WYNN is flourishing and so is Penn National. How is that possible if people have no disposable income? The answer is not that gambling is dying. Horse racing is dying.

What has a higher takeout rate: slots, texas hold'em, blackjack, horse racing, or sports betting?

Parkview_Pirate
11-18-2017, 09:46 PM
Hahaha. Casino stocks like Churchill Downs (and it is a casino stock) have never done better. CDI has gone from 50 to 200 in the last few years. WYNN is flourishing and so is Penn National. How is that possible if people have no disposable income? The answer is not that gambling is dying. Horse racing is dying.

Equating stock prices to the economy is hardly conclusive. What you can determine is the Fed's <PRINT> button is working, and that's about all.

There are numerous indications that we've reached "peak gambling", as some casinos, lotteries and poker venues are now reporting stagnating or declining revenue. There's probably still some room for growth in certain areas, as fantasy sports and online gaming becomes more common. And of course, if sports wagering was legalized in more venues, you'd see a mini-boom.

But, if you don't think disposable income is shrinking, especially for those in the lower classes (say, the workers who less than $1K in savings), then you're not paying attention.

thaskalos
11-18-2017, 09:54 PM
Equating stock prices to the economy is hardly conclusive. What you can determine is the Fed's <PRINT> button is working, and that's about all.

There are numerous indications that we've reached "peak gambling", as some casinos, lotteries and poker venues are now reporting stagnating or declining revenue. There's probably still some room for growth in certain areas, as fantasy sports and online gaming becomes more common. And of course, if sports wagering was legalized in more venues, you'd see a mini-boom.

But, if you don't think disposable income is shrinking, especially for those in the lower classes (say, the workers who less than $1K in savings), then you're not paying attention.

But history suggests that gambling is immune to the ills of the economic downturns. Our game supposedly retained its business even during the Great Depression.

Parkview_Pirate
11-19-2017, 01:50 PM
But history suggests that gambling is immune to the ills of the economic downturns. Our game supposedly retained its business even during the Great Depression.

Not much competition for horse racing back then, except the local numbers games. Drinking, drug use and other costly "bad" habits will always be with us.

I wouldn't say gambling is going extinct, but it'll become less popular in the years ahead. Scrambling to get the basics of food, shelter and clothing is already a stark reality for many - though of course, the average person on this forum is well ahead of the pack, and may not realize that.

dilanesp
11-19-2017, 02:23 PM
But history suggests that gambling is immune to the ills of the economic downturns. Our game supposedly retained its business even during the Great Depression.

Our game was the only legal form of gsmbling then, and state legislatures had budget shortfalls and expanded it to raise money.

That doesn't mean we are forevermore recession proof.

thaskalos
11-19-2017, 02:40 PM
Not much competition for horse racing back then, except the local numbers games. Drinking, drug use and other costly "bad" habits will always be with us.

I wouldn't say gambling is going extinct, but it'll become less popular in the years ahead. Scrambling to get the basics of food, shelter and clothing is already a stark reality for many - though of course, the average person on this forum is well ahead of the pack, and may not realize that.

I am a lot more optimistic about the future of gambling in general, than I am about horseracing in particular. As I type this, I am sitting right between the poker room and the sportsbook at the Venetian in Las Vegas. The entire gambling establishment is hopping with excited action, except for the racebook section...where a morgue would be considered noisy by comparison.

Parkview_Pirate
11-19-2017, 04:13 PM
I am a lot more optimistic about the future of gambling in general, than I am about horseracing in particular. As I type this, I am sitting right between the poker room and the sportsbook at the Venetian in Las Vegas. The entire gambling establishment is hopping with excited action, except for the racebook section...where a morgue would be considered noisy by comparison.

Dog and horse racing are the canaries in the gambling mine. Taking a stroll through most casinos' slot areas is like going down to the Social Security Administration to sign up for benefits. The younger generations won't have that money to piss away, based on how many are living with their parents or grandparents.

There are now six or so major casinos on I-5 between Portland and Seattle, including a new one in Ridgefield, with similar spots off the freeways in Oregon. No need to go to Vegas when you can stay in the rainy PNW, smoke weed, and play the slots. I've stopped in a few, looking for a racebook, and am always amazed at how young I feel (in my mid 50s).

The Venetian is a nice place - stayed there a few times. The "virtual Venice" without the stench of the canals. Vegas got built on cheap (subsidized) air fares, and back in the 1980s when I first went there it was super cheap to stay and eat. Not any longer, and each time I read through an issue of Gambling Times and find revenue numbers, they don't seem very impressive.

I predict the last "boom" for gambling to be the online casino games, along with legalized sports betting as the Federal and state governments nudge the mob aside to get a piece of the action. That boom will come at the cost of gambling pursuits already in place, and it'll be downhill from there.

Horse racing will end up like the South American tracks or the back-road quarterhorse races in Louisiana, with just a handful of tracks operating better than that....

Cholly
11-19-2017, 04:49 PM
Dog and horse racing are the canaries in the gambling mine...

I predict the last "boom" for gambling to be the online casino games, along with legalized sports betting as the Federal and state governments nudge the mob aside to get a piece of the action. That boom will come at the cost of gambling pursuits already in place, and it'll be downhill from there.


hate to say it, but the Pirate is probably on the money here.

ultracapper
11-25-2017, 11:39 PM
In any business venture, contraction can only be a means to an ends. Ultimately, all business ventures must show growth to be sustainable. So while contraction may be a viable strategy for the present state of affairs, after contraction is completed, growth must follow, or death of the business venture is all but assured.

Contraction is always a scary step in any business environment. When contraction is completed, the real work of building a healthy industry/company then must begin. If that task is not taken on, death is only a matter of time.

Quesmark
03-13-2018, 04:01 PM
Ritvo said he wants to increase the dates at Santa Anita for many reasons. He notes any business thrives by hiring good people, but they have to be able to work year round. He said he hopes to take back dates from Los Alamitos because the Santa Anita brand has more cache with gamblers.
From:
https://www.gamingtoday.com/industry/article/73746-Can_Santa_Anita_be_saved_Let_s_hope_soThis is a big problem with losing racing dates,as many employees can't make a living at the track as they could when plants were open 5,or 6 days a week.When some people have to work 2,3,or more gigs to get by they're less loyal to anyplace in particular,and if they can find full time,or worthwhile employment somewhere else are less likely to stay long term.
A racino actually solves some of this issue as employees can cross over between the 2 sides of the building depending on the conditions,Aqueduct/Resorts world as an example.

ultracapper
03-14-2018, 11:54 PM
But history suggests that gambling is immune to the ills of the economic downturns. Our game supposedly retained its business even during the Great Depression.

It exploded during the GD.

Contraction is never a good thing. If the economy, or a business, or a sport's league, begins contracting, that's bad. Why anybody thinks horse racing would be different confuses me. If horse racing is to get healthy, the marketing of, and prettying up of the product must be addressed. Growth is the sign of a healthy industry. Off the top of my head, I can only think of a couple of contraction plans that ever worked out. The reason contraction looks attractive is the issue that must be resolved.

dilanesp
03-15-2018, 01:00 AM
It exploded during the GD.

Contraction is never a good thing. If the economy, or a business, or a sport's league, begins contracting, that's bad. Why anybody thinks horse racing would be different confuses me. If horse racing is to get healthy, the marketing of, and prettying up of the product must be addressed. Growth is the sign of a healthy industry. Off the top of my head, I can only think of a couple of contraction plans that ever worked out. The reason contraction looks attractive is the issue that must be resolved.

The thing is, not contracting when you need to works even less well than contracting.