PDA

View Full Version : Turf, Home Of Long Shots @AQU -- so far!!!


TheOracle
11-13-2017, 11:46 AM
It seems the Turf is the way to go for longshots at Aqueduct so far this season!!!

Out of 30 races on the Turf, so far at Aqueduct since November, there have only been 12 prices under $8!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/turfsofaraqu.jpg

Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have only won 5 of their last 21 attempts on the Turf since November!!!

This is where you are getting the best bang for your buck!!!

Morning Lines less than 3-1 have been consistently getting beat in this situation and I imagine the same is true for the actual Favorites on the Turf!!!

TheOracle
11-13-2017, 12:27 PM
Let's play particular attention to J Servis' horses on the Turf at Aqueduct!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/j servisaqutrf.jpg

So far, his horses are giving you over 100% return per $2 show wager and an 87% return per $2 win place and show on the Turf since November!!!

His horses in Allowance Optional Claiming* races have been doing quite well in terms of return on your money!!!

Since November 15, 2015 you are getting a 127% return per $2 show wager and a 96% return per $2 win place and show wager on his horses in Allowance Optional Claiming* races on the Turf!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/j servisalwoptclmtrfaqu.jpg

Let's keep an eye on his horses on the Turf at Aqueduct for the remainer of the season and also keep his barn in mind at the start of Turf racing in April!!!

*I treat any Optional Claiming (i.e. Starter Optional Claiming, Optional Claiming,,, etc.) as Allowance Optional Claiming

CincyHorseplayer
11-13-2017, 05:42 PM
Aqueduct on turf in November has always been a kind little honey jar!

TheOracle
11-13-2017, 05:55 PM
Aqueduct on turf in November has always been a kind little honey jar!

Hey Cincy

Yeah you then have to figure out which ones to play after you eliminate the Favorites

I imagine that's where the handicapping comes into play if you can figure these races out then yes it can be quite the ATM machine for those who know how

Since I don't handicap I will have to watch J Servis' horses on the Turf!!!

CincyHorseplayer
11-13-2017, 05:58 PM
In general turf is like this though. On the year in every turf race I've looked at (over 500 races each surface) horses paying less than 2-1 are at 13%. That number is at 22% on dirt. My top contenders on turf win 43% of the races at 2-1 and up. On dirt they win 31%. And the average mutuel is over $1 less. Dirt is a stingy and hostile surface to a player. Turf is far kinder. Not to mention nicer to look at! When I hear apocalypse statements about the game. I know it is coming from dirt centric players. I was there once. I know.

CincyHorseplayer
11-13-2017, 06:02 PM
Hey Cincy

Yeah you then have to figure out which ones to play after you eliminate the Favorites

I imagine that's where the handicapping comes into play if you can figure these races out then yes it can be quite the ATM machine for those who know how

Since I don't handicap I will have to watch J Servis' horses on the Turf!!!

This might be scatterbrained. I am burned out today. But I feel like turf races at Toga are so competitive and there are tons of bias conspiracy rides and IMO real inside or even speed biases. Belmont fall is like a hangover. Then last ditch efforts on the lawn at Aqueduct in November it seems to all make sense. Less mediocre horses surprise. That's huge! Obviousness and price. Keep chugging brother! Only a few of these left.

TheOracle
11-16-2017, 12:58 PM
Let's play particular attention to J Servis' horses on the Turf at Aqueduct!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/j servisaqutrf.jpg

So far, his horses are giving you over 100% return per $2 show wager and an 87% return per $2 win place and show on the Turf since November!!!

His horses in Allowance Optional Claiming* races have been doing quite well in terms of return on your money!!!

Since November 15, 2015 you are getting a 127% return per $2 show wager and a 96% return per $2 win place and show wager on his horses in Allowance Optional Claiming* races on the Turf!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/j servisalwoptclmtrfaqu.jpg

Let's keep an eye on his horses on the Turf at Aqueduct for the remainer of the season and also keep his barn in mind at the start of Turf racing in April!!!

*I treat any Optional Claiming (i.e. Starter Optional Claiming, Optional Claiming,,, etc.) as Allowance Optional Claiming

J Servis has this today in the 8th at Aqueduct in an Allowance Optional Claiming race

8th race
#2 Grand Sky

Although Turf has been the home for longshots at Aqueduct let's see if Servis can get this one through to the winners circle!!!

TheOracle
11-16-2017, 10:48 PM
J Servis has this today in the 8th at Aqueduct in an Allowance Optional Claiming race

8th race
#2 Grand Sky

Although Turf has been the home for longshots at Aqueduct let's see if Servis can get this one through to the winners circle!!!

I was hoping #2 Grand Sky would have bucked the trend for long shots on the Turf but he disappointed us today and surprise surprise a $20+ wins the race!!!

Let’s continue to watch his horses in Allowance Optional Claiming races on the Turf!!!