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pandy
11-10-2017, 08:05 AM
As some of you know, Aqueduct's inner track is history, as it has been turned into a turf course. The main track has been "winterized" so NYRA racing will be raced over the main track from November to May. So far after five racing days on the main track, the track seems to have a Parx-like dull rail and a tiring surface. Horses have gone wire to wire but raced well off the rail. It will be interesting to see if this is how the track will play all winter, or if the colder weather will change it. It could also be that the surface is loose right now and could tighten up. The top rider's have been avoiding the inside when they have a front runner.

mikesal57
11-10-2017, 09:36 AM
As some of you know, Aqueduct's inner track is history, as it has been turned into a turf course. The main track has been "winterized" so NYRA racing will be raced over the main track from November to May. So far after five racing days on the main track, the track seems to have a Parx-like dull rail and a tiring surface. Horses have gone wire to wire but raced well off the rail. It will be interesting to see if this is how the track will play all winter, or if the colder weather will change it. It could also be that the surface is loose right now and could tighten up. The top rider's have been avoiding the inside when they have a front runner.

Thxs Pandy....

I was curious about what you mention , so I checked with my JCapper software.

With dirt sprints and routes.....speed is at the top...no different than the inner

as for post positions...most wins , so far are from post 1 & 2....but stay away from posts 7 and out....It cant tell WHERE they are positioned as they run, so your note is important about getting off a dead rail ..

just a FYI

Mike

pandy
11-10-2017, 09:49 AM
Thxs Pandy....

I was curious about what you mention , so I checked with my JCapper software.

With dirt sprints and routes.....speed is at the top...no different than the inner

as for post positions...most wins , so far are from post 1 & 2....but stay away from posts 7 and out....It cant tell WHERE they are positioned as they run, so your note is important about getting off a dead rail ..

just a FYI

Mike


Yes, it may not have a negative effect on the actual post position win percentage and percentage of early speed winners if the rider's who draw an inside post can get off the inside. It seems as if the material that was added to the main track, to winterize it, has slowed it and created a dull rail. For those of you who play NYRA, I do post track bias info on my website. So far the track is playing fair, even with the dull rail.

TheOracle
11-10-2017, 10:13 AM
Thxs Pandy....

I was curious about what you mention , so I checked with my JCapper software.

With dirt sprints and routes.....speed is at the top...no different than the inner

as for post positions...most wins , so far are from post 1 & 2....but stay away from posts 7 and out....It cant tell WHERE they are positioned as they run, so your note is important about getting off a dead rail ..

just a FYI

Mike

Hey Mike

There used to be an old wives tale at Aqueduct, especially on the inner Dirt, that said if you played the program #1 for the season you could make a profit. I'm not sure about the post positions.

That theory has been proven wrong so many times I stopped looking at it, but so far for the month of November you are ahead for now you got $297.80 per $2 win bet at a cost of $80 (40 betting interest so far)

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/pgmnooneaqu.jpg

We used to call them the "numbers guys" they would be getting a treat so far for Aqueduct this season!!!

mikesal57
11-10-2017, 11:02 AM
Hey Mike

There used to be an old wives tale at Aqueduct, especially on the inner Dirt, that said if you played the program #1 for the season you could make a profit. I'm not sure about the post positions.

That theory has been proven wrong so many times I stopped looking at it, but so far for the month of November you are ahead for now you got $297.80 per $2 win bet at a cost of $80 (40 betting interest so far)

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/pgmnooneaqu.jpg

We used to call them the "numbers guys" they would be getting a treat so far for Aqueduct this season!!!

take out that biigie that most will never have..

Finding value will be had to get.....betting horses over 5 -1 will get you in the streets...FAST

Typical AQU that I always stay away from

You get this:

By: Rail Position

Rail Pos P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 -25.50 82.00 0.6890 7 41 .1707 1.1718 8.07
2 -26.10 74.00 0.6473 7 37 .1892 1.2985 6.84
3 -48.40 70.00 0.3086 3 35 .0857 0.5883 7.20
4 0.90 84.00 1.0107 3 42 .0714 0.4903 28.30
5 -47.00 76.00 0.3816 4 38 .1053 0.7225 7.25
6 -40.60 80.00 0.4925 7 40 .1750 1.2011 5.63
7 14.10 36.00 1.3917 3 18 .1667 1.1439 16.70
8 -24.90 36.00 0.3083 2 18 .1111 0.7626 5.55
9 0.80 24.00 1.0333 3 12 .2500 1.7159 8.27
10 -1.20 24.00 0.9500 3 12 .2500 1.7159 7.60
11 18.80 8.00 3.3500 2 4 .5000 3.4318 13.40
12 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000 0.0000 0.00
13 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
14 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00





By: Morning Line

>=Min < Max P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-999.0000 0.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.0000 0.5000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.5000 1.0000 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
1.0000 1.5000 0.20 6.00 1.0333 2 3 .6667 4.5758
1.5000 2.0000 -7.60 28.00 0.7286 4 14 .2857 1.9610
2.0000 2.5000 15.00 28.00 1.5357 7 14 .5000 3.4318
2.5000 3.0000 -3.90 34.00 0.8853 5 17 .2941 2.0187
3.0000 3.5000 -25.50 44.00 0.4205 3 22 .1364 0.9360
3.5000 4.0000 -19.20 42.00 0.5429 3 21 .1429 0.9805
4.0000 4.5000 -19.80 34.00 0.4176 2 17 .1176 0.8075
4.5000 5.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
5.0000 5.5000 18.00 50.00 1.3600 7 25 .2800 1.9218
5.5000 6.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
6.0000 6.5000 -28.20 86.00 0.6721 5 43 .1163 0.7981
6.5000 7.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
7.0000 7.5000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
7.5000 8.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
8.0000 8.5000 -58.60 62.00 0.0548 1 31 .0323 0.2214
8.5000 9.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
9.0000 9999.0000 -57.50 188.00 0.6941 5 94 .0532 0.3651

TheOracle
11-10-2017, 11:52 AM
take out that biigie that most will never have..

Finding value will be had to get.....betting horses over 5 -1 will get you in the streets...FAST

Typical AQU that I always stay away from

You get this:

By: Rail Position

Rail Pos P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact AvgMut
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 -25.50 82.00 0.6890 7 41 .1707 1.1718 8.07
2 -26.10 74.00 0.6473 7 37 .1892 1.2985 6.84
3 -48.40 70.00 0.3086 3 35 .0857 0.5883 7.20
4 0.90 84.00 1.0107 3 42 .0714 0.4903 28.30
5 -47.00 76.00 0.3816 4 38 .1053 0.7225 7.25
6 -40.60 80.00 0.4925 7 40 .1750 1.2011 5.63
7 14.10 36.00 1.3917 3 18 .1667 1.1439 16.70
8 -24.90 36.00 0.3083 2 18 .1111 0.7626 5.55
9 0.80 24.00 1.0333 3 12 .2500 1.7159 8.27
10 -1.20 24.00 0.9500 3 12 .2500 1.7159 7.60
11 18.80 8.00 3.3500 2 4 .5000 3.4318 13.40
12 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000 0.0000 0.00
13 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
14 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 0.00 By: Morning Line

>=Min < Max P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-999.0000 0.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.0000 0.5000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.5000 1.0000 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
1.0000 1.5000 0.20 6.00 1.0333 2 3 .6667 4.5758
1.5000 2.0000 -7.60 28.00 0.7286 4 14 .2857 1.9610
2.0000 2.5000 15.00 28.00 1.5357 7 14 .5000 3.4318
2.5000 3.0000 -3.90 34.00 0.8853 5 17 .2941 2.0187
3.0000 3.5000 -25.50 44.00 0.4205 3 22 .1364 0.9360
3.5000 4.0000 -19.20 42.00 0.5429 3 21 .1429 0.9805
4.0000 4.5000 -19.80 34.00 0.4176 2 17 .1176 0.8075
4.5000 5.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
5.0000 5.5000 18.00 50.00 1.3600 7 25 .2800 1.9218
5.5000 6.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
6.0000 6.5000 -28.20 86.00 0.6721 5 43 .1163 0.7981
6.5000 7.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
7.0000 7.5000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
7.5000 8.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
8.0000 8.5000 -58.60 62.00 0.0548 1 31 .0323 0.2214
8.5000 9.0000 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
9.0000 9999.0000 -57.50 188.00 0.6941 5 94 .0532 0.3651


Hey Mike

You are right on the button with those Morning Line 5-1's they had a great day on November 5th for some reason!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/m l fiveonesaqunovfive.jpg

They won 3 races back to back to bring up the return on investment!!!

Overall they are giving you a 35% return as you mentioned per $2 win wager

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/m l fiveonesaquovrall.jpg

Let's keep tabs on this for the rest of the Aqueduct season!!!

TheOracle
11-10-2017, 12:33 PM
Hey Mike

You are right on the button with those Morning Line 5-1's they had a great day on November 5th for some reason!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/m l fiveonesaqunovfive.jpg

They won 3 races back to back to bring up the return on investment!!!

Overall they are giving you a 35% return as you mentioned per $2 win wager

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/m l fiveonesaquovrall.jpg

Let's keep tabs on this for the rest of the Aqueduct season!!!

Let's see what these do today at Aqueduct!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/m l fiveonesaqutdy.jpg

Maybe W I Mott comes through in the 7th today!!!

mikesal57
11-10-2017, 12:43 PM
Mott has 2 horses in that race....

Length can be used to set up his firster....by getting him in fight up front
Also Length hasn't raced on dirt

GL , anyway

TheOracle
11-13-2017, 06:30 PM
Hey Mike

There used to be an old wives tale at Aqueduct, especially on the inner Dirt, that said if you played the program #1 for the season you could make a profit. I'm not sure about the post positions.

That theory has been proven wrong so many times I stopped looking at it, but so far for the month of November you are ahead for now you got $297.80 per $2 win bet at a cost of $80 (40 betting interest so far)

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/pgmnooneaqu.jpg

We used to call them the "numbers guys" they would be getting a treat so far for Aqueduct this season!!!


Hey Mike,

When I look at distances less than 1 Mile on the Turf at Aqueduct I get 4 wins and 1 place in 9 attempts, but again these are not post positions

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/pgmoneataqutrf.jpg


Let's keep an eye on this for the remainder of the Aqueduct season on the Turf!!!